Back to COVID-19 Visualisation

COVID-19 Commentary Archive

I’ve been posting commentary on Facebook about the “days to 1%” line in my Google Sheet linked above. Here is a sample of what I’ve written.

Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last seven days (four before 2020-08-29) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases. Starting on 2020-08-02, in regions where active cases are still increasing but more than 1% of the population has been infected, I show an estimate of how many days it will be until 40% of the population is infected, the point at which herd immunity might begin to slow down spread among survivors in the most optimistic scenario.

2020-10-23

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (110HI→103HI), Malta (121HI→124HI), U.K. (132HI→129HI), Romania (170HI→167HI), Spain (188HI→182HI), Alabama (395HI→320HI), Sweden (408HI→364HI), U.S. (382HI→376HI), Brazil (656HI→662HI), California (790HI→697HI), New York (882HI→882HI), Singapore (30239HI→29638HI), Austria (9→7), Italy (9→7), Poland (11→10), Toronto (13→13), Denmark (31→26), Germany (35→31), Iran (48→45), Canada (48→47), Mexico (59→59), Ontario (68→66), Malaysia (67→67), Norway (123→110), Turkey (157→153), South Korea (802→802), New Zealand (1126→997), Thailand (2500→2330), Australia (4045→3724)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Spain, Alabama, Sweden, Austria, Italy, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Romania, Iran, Ontario

The same: Poland, Canada

Better: Malta, Toronto, Mexico, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (72→67, 24.3%), Japan (1761→460, 37.2%), India (629→542, 68.3%), China (586→1219, 0.7%), South Africa (432→1377, 28.3%), Indonesia (2982→6578, 95.5%), Louisiana (877→42023, 24.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (60): Saint Kitts and Nevis (4, 0.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (14, 3.0%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 25.0%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 9.8%); Monaco (14, 74.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 33.3%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (36, 19.2%); Mauritius (41, 11.5%); Suriname (43, 4.9%); Antigua and Barbuda (57, 27.3%); Chad (145, 22.8%); Equatorial Guinea (172, 1.2%); Papua New Guinea (179, 13.2%); Liberia (203, 5.4%); Burkina Faso (226, 68.1%); Venezuela (258, 43.9%); Uzbekistan (288, 23.5%); Peru (294, 29.3%); Senegal (301, 26.3%); Eswatini (309, 14.3%); Montenegro (315, 87.3%); Vietnam (320, 13.0%); Gabon (348, 14.1%); United Arab Emirates (367, 40.8%); El Salvador (393, 34.8%); Somalia (396, 54.5%); Maldives (413, 33.8%); Guyana (440, 79.1%); Iceland (459, 92.6%); Tajikistan (482, 44.7%); Bahrain (505, 43.9%); Yemen (516, 20.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (587, 69.2%); Bolivia (590, 59.8%); Colombia (610, 39.5%); Cabo Verde (700, 95.7%); Guinea-Bissau (705, 68.2%); Dominican Republic (717, 58.7%); Haiti (866, 49.6%); Guatemala (921, 38.7%); Chile (932, 16.4%); Oman (1082, 54.7%); Sierra Leone (1942, 95.5%); Saudi Arabia (2405, 13.2%); Namibia (2560, 39.0%); Mozambique (2931, 65.6%); West Bank and Gaza (3152, 52.5%); Malawi (4001, 44.6%); Moldova (6178, 98.1%); Bangladesh (9688, 75.8%); Nigeria (11980, 22.3%); Gambia (13168, 50.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): NH (146, 44.9%); WV (359, 89.8%); MA (2667, 40.7%); IA (4716, 97.4%); MT (379181, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (14, 75.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NS (21, 0.9%); NL (58, 4.7%); NB (63, 72.1%)

Active school cases across the province and in Toronto in particular were stable or reduced for the second day in a row, suggesting we may have reached a plateau, either of actual cases or testing capacity.

Across the country, active cases continue to rise everywhere except the North (which remains free) and the Atlantic provinces (which are recovering fairly quickly from their last wave). Cases in B.C. were up 32% over the past week, Alberta 29%, Saskatchewan 71%, Manitoba 17%, Ontario 7%, and Quebec 10%.

Toronto saw "only" 295 new cases today, the first under-300 in four days. Officially active cases rose to 2,790. Hospital admissions (averaging 12 per day) continue to suggest that the official numbers are low by a factor of four or more.

Today's chart shows active cases over time in North America by country, with the United States scaled down by a factor of 100 so that it fits in fifth place after Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras and Canada,

Stay safe.

2020-10-22

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (125HI→121HI), France (135HI→122HI), Spain (165HI→127HI), Malta (129HI→140HI), Romania (0→177HI), Alabama (402HI→402HI), U.S. (409HI→405HI), Sweden (368HI→476HI), Brazil (786HI→659HI), California (758HI→756HI), New York (957HI→957HI), Singapore (29198HI→28228HI), Austria (11→9), Italy (11→9), Poland (13→11), Toronto (15→13), Germany (39→30), Denmark (31→31), Canada (49→44), Iran (49→44), Mexico (72→59), Ontario (71→67), Malaysia (67→70), Norway (125→110), Turkey (157→151), New Zealand (876→876), Australia (3942→3165)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., France, Spain, Romania, Austria, Italy, Germany, Canada, Iran, Mexico, Ontario, Norway, Turkey

Worse: Poland, Toronto

Better: Malta, Denmark, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: South Korea (2609→14, 21.0%), Thailand (new→14, 10.1%), Israel (77→72, 27.0%), South Africa (514→432, 27.6%), China (799→586, 0.7%), India (793→629, 70.3%), Louisiana (2732→877, 23.4%), Japan (1629→1761, 37.1%), Indonesia (2653→2982, 94.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (64): Saint Kitts and Nevis (5, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 30.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Comoros (14, 2.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Eritrea (14, 46.4%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 25.0%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); Liberia (14, 5.9%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 9.8%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (23, 19.2%); Suriname (41, 4.9%); Mauritius (45, 11.8%); Ecuador (139, 28.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (172, 2.8%); Venezuela (218, 46.3%); Philippines (260, 52.9%); Mozambique (270, 60.8%); Eswatini (276, 14.6%); Senegal (297, 26.9%); Chad (309, 21.8%); Guatemala (332, 37.5%); Guyana (346, 78.1%); Burkina Faso (348, 73.3%); Gabon (348, 14.1%); Somalia (349, 54.0%); Montenegro (357, 89.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (369, 69.3%); Yemen (372, 20.0%); United Arab Emirates (377, 40.6%); Colombia (386, 39.8%); Bahrain (442, 45.5%); Zambia (459, 21.7%); Tajikistan (502, 45.6%); El Salvador (510, 35.7%); Papua New Guinea (561, 14.1%); Maldives (620, 35.9%); Bolivia (665, 60.8%); Uzbekistan (681, 25.2%); Haiti (703, 49.0%); Guinea-Bissau (705, 68.2%); Monaco (710, 64.8%); Dominican Republic (864, 59.9%); Peru (920, 30.8%); Iceland (1059, 96.3%); Estonia (1138, 86.8%); Sierra Leone (1713, 96.1%); Moldova (1875, 97.8%); Namibia (2045, 38.3%); Jamaica (2281, 90.4%); Malawi (2318, 44.2%); Saudi Arabia (3266, 13.4%); Bangladesh (4795, 75.8%); Panama (10128, 82.6%); Central African Republic (16917, 62.1%); Gambia (26354, 50.1%); Oman (33004, 55.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): NH (192, 44.9%); NC (276, 85.3%); WV (367, 87.3%); MS (1014, 51.2%); MN (1257, 96.8%); MA (1261, 37.9%); AR (1982, 98.0%); IA (2641, 95.8%); MT (8319, 94.6%); DC (8446, 81.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (14, 75.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NS (21, 0.9%); NL (58, 4.7%); NB (81, 77.9%)

Although Europe's active cases are continuing to increase supraexponentially and are collectively past 4% daily growth (averaged over the last seven days) now, there is a wide range among countries within the continent. Some countries are seeing over 10% daily increases (in decreasing order, Switzerland, Slovenia, Croatia), some 7-10% (Georgia, Poland, Malta, Italy, Armenia, Germany, Belgium, Czechia), some 4-7% (Bulgaria, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Lithuania, Kosovo, Latvia, Austria, Netherlands), and the three worst-off countries are increasing at less than 4% daily (France, U.K., Spain). Montenegro and Estonia are the only ones that have seen improvements in the past week.

In Ontario, the North West saw only one case in the past week and appears to have settled back to their usual level of safety. The North East is still seeing 10 cases a week, a slight uptick over the previous two weeks' 9 cases. The East has seen two weeks of declines, down now to 612 cases in a week. Central East and Toronto numbers were up for the tenth week in a row, to 1,952 and 2,011 (ten weeks ago, those numbers were 151 and 80). The South and Central West are down from last week to 134 and 611.

School active cases in Toronto and in Ontario took a slight dip today, and in Ontario they have gone back to matching the overall population rate.

Today's chart shows the age distribution of cases in Toronto over time, and updates last week's corresponding chart.

Stay safe.

2020-10-21

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (113HI→113HI), Malta (0→119HI), U.K. (135HI→131HI), Spain (210HI→201HI), U.S. (395HI→385HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Sweden (461HI→399HI), Brazil (627HI→627HI), California (810HI→775HI), New York (935HI→882HI), Romania (1→0), Austria (12→11), Italy (13→11), Poland (13→12), Toronto (16→15), Denmark (36→31), Germany (44→39), Iran (51→49), Canada (51→50), Malaysia (68→69), Ontario (70→69), Norway (140→123), Turkey (167→163), New Zealand (2842→1126), Thailand (2357→2362), Australia (3720→4083)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malta, U.K., Spain, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Turkey

Worse: Italy, Iran

The same: Romania, Austria, Poland, Toronto, Canada, Ontario

Better: France, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (83→77, 29.5%), Singapore (51→108, 0.5%), South Africa (34487→514, 27.7%), India (788→793, 72.7%), China (new→799, 0.7%), Japan (4209→1629, 36.8%), South Korea (new→2609, 20.3%), Indonesia (new→2653, 93.8%), Louisiana (new→2732, 21.8%), Mexico (1608→4118, 81.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (64): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (6, 0.0%); Benin (14, 15.2%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Comoros (14, 2.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (28, 21.2%); Mauritius (45, 11.8%); Nigeria (48, 22.3%); Rwanda (48, 7.7%); Suriname (48, 5.5%); Holy See (82, 85.7%); Ecuador (97, 24.1%); Chad (110, 26.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (185, 2.9%); Liberia (244, 6.3%); Bahrain (249, 45.0%); Maldives (260, 36.1%); Madagascar (274, 9.8%); Peru (284, 28.9%); Colombia (301, 40.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (302, 6.2%); Senegal (307, 27.5%); Philippines (308, 52.3%); Guyana (313, 77.3%); Burkina Faso (348, 73.3%); Somalia (349, 54.0%); Montenegro (366, 90.6%); Trinidad and Tobago (396, 69.6%); Tajikistan (424, 46.3%); United Arab Emirates (424, 40.4%); Mozambique (425, 61.3%); Gabon (541, 14.5%); Papua New Guinea (561, 14.1%); El Salvador (603, 36.5%); Haiti (672, 48.9%); Guinea-Bissau (705, 68.2%); Guatemala (712, 39.5%); Estonia (905, 89.1%); Bolivia (930, 62.4%); Dominican Republic (1014, 61.0%); Yemen (1352, 21.0%); Moldova (1435, 96.7%); Uzbekistan (1436, 25.0%); Venezuela (1599, 53.8%); Panama (1688, 82.7%); Jamaica (1735, 90.1%); Central African Republic (2684, 62.1%); Namibia (3284, 38.8%); Sierra Leone (3452, 97.1%); Bangladesh (3874, 76.0%); Saudi Arabia (4424, 13.5%); Malawi (6948, 44.4%); Gambia (8772, 50.0%); Oman (15518, 55.7%); Afghanistan (46765, 36.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): VI (176, 4.4%); NH (184, 43.0%); NC (252, 78.7%); MS (331, 47.2%); MN (491, 90.9%); ME (1026, 89.2%); AR (1166, 95.7%); IA (5434, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NS (14, 1.1%); NT (14, 75.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NL (58, 4.7%); NB (250, 88.5%)

Here are my regions of interest that saw the fewest new cases in the most recently reported day: New Zealand (2), Thailand (9), China (11), Singapore (12), and Australia (14). Well done!

21 new cases were hospitalized in Toronto today, a record since this figure began being published on September 25. We can infer from that the presence of 1,100 to 2,300 new cases in the community today. The city reported officially that there had been only 331 new cases, and a net total of 2,684 currently active cases. If active cases are being underreported by the same amount, then there are likely 9,000 to 18,000 of them. So we have 1 in 150~350 residents infected and not fewer than 1 in 1,000.

School cases continue to rise at a faster rate than in the general population. I am guessing it is because children are getting tested more than others. It's been at least three weeks since we ran out of testing capacity in Toronto, and our active case count appeared to level off while our test positivity rate continues to climb, but new case rates in schools have continued to climb steadily and linearly. In Toronto, they should reach the reported infection rate in the general population in a week or two; in Ontario they are already past it.

Today's chart is a weekly update showing where new non-outbreak cases were reported in Toronto. For the second week in a row, there were no new cases in our neighbourhood. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-10-20

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (117HI→113HI), U.K. (137HI→135HI), Spain (225HI→210HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), U.S. (408HI→395HI), Sweden (688HI→461HI), Brazil (714HI→627HI), Louisiana (758HI→655HI), California (711HI→810HI), New York (935HI→935HI), Malta (1→0), Romania (2→1), Austria (14→12), Italy (15→13), Poland (15→13), Toronto (17→16), Denmark (36→36), Germany (47→44), Canada (50→51), Iran (54→51), Malaysia (69→68), Ontario (71→70), Norway (139→140), Turkey (171→167), Indonesia (173→176), South Korea (921→1000), Thailand (2685→2357), China (28695→27175)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Spain, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Austria, Italy, Poland, Germany, Iran

The same: Malta, Romania, Toronto, Malaysia, Ontario

Better: Denmark, Canada, Norway, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (136→50, 3.6%), Singapore (56→51, 0.5%), Israel (144→83, 33.5%), India (1119→788, 73.5%), Mexico (new→1608, 76.5%), Australia (2213→2605, 14.8%), Japan (new→4209, 37.3%), South Africa (4019→34487, 29.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (64): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (7, 0.0%); Benin (14, 15.2%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 5.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 66.7%); Niger (14, 2.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 14.3%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Vietnam (14, 12.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Rwanda (34, 7.6%); Barbados (44, 23.1%); Nigeria (50, 22.5%); Mauritius (52, 11.8%); Liberia (53, 6.1%); Chad (73, 25.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (74, 2.8%); Holy See (82, 85.7%); Ecuador (103, 21.9%); Suriname (107, 6.4%); Burkina Faso (151, 73.8%); Peru (171, 30.3%); Maldives (212, 35.8%); Gabon (252, 14.5%); Madagascar (274, 9.8%); Colombia (276, 40.6%); Senegal (281, 28.2%); Venezuela (292, 50.8%); Bahrain (293, 46.4%); Tajikistan (321, 47.0%); Guyana (331, 79.0%); Philippines (349, 50.8%); Yemen (390, 20.9%); Lesotho (501, 83.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (529, 71.0%); Papua New Guinea (561, 14.1%); Haiti (672, 48.9%); United Arab Emirates (680, 43.0%); Guinea-Bissau (705, 68.2%); Estonia (763, 89.3%); Guatemala (775, 39.3%); Dominican Republic (788, 61.2%); Mozambique (914, 63.1%); Uzbekistan (1016, 25.0%); Bolivia (1192, 63.5%); Jamaica (1221, 90.7%); El Salvador (1326, 38.0%); Panama (1466, 82.4%); Moldova (2220, 96.4%); Sierra Leone (2306, 97.1%); Afghanistan (2745, 36.0%); Saudi Arabia (2752, 13.5%); Central African Republic (3483, 62.2%); Bangladesh (4771, 76.2%); Pakistan (5276, 9.0%); Malawi (5562, 44.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (4): NC (248, 73.6%); MS (299, 43.9%); MN (1155, 95.0%); AR (1765, 94.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT (14, 25.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NL (142, 5.7%)

Today's chart is a weekly update on global active cases by continent. Europe, which had been increasing active cases exponentially at the high rate of 2% daily throughout the second half of September, has spent October so far climbing supraexponentially to 4% daily now, with no sign of slowing down. At this rate, they should surpass North America's current merely 1% daily exponential growth within a week.

Active Ontario school cases exceed 1/8 of the total known active cases in the province today for the first time, and school cases are growing at a faster rate than non-school cases, indicating that school-age children are catching COVID-19 at a greater rate than the rest of the province. We are still keeping schools open, while the school boards reassess their plans for the school year to see if there is any way to provide an education more safely while complying with provincial requirements of in-person schooling. The province says it's not okay though for kids in Toronto to go out trick-or-treating this Hallowe'en, because reasons.

Toronto reported 339 new confirmed/probable cases today. My estimate of actual new daily cases based on hospitalization rates dropped below 1,000 a little for the first time in more than two weeks, after peaking at over 1,400 a week ago. Official active case totals have risen again over the last two days to 2,611, after dipping down to 2,407. The actual total is likely over 10,000 at this point.

Another downtown hospital declared an outbreak today, when five staff in the emergency department at St. Michael's tested positive.

Stay safe.

2020-10-19

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (128HI→117HI), U.K. (140HI→137HI), Spain (249HI→225HI), Alabama (408HI→395HI), U.S. (407HI→408HI), Sweden (688HI→688HI), California (673HI→711HI), Brazil (714HI→714HI), Louisiana (758HI→758HI), New York (929HI→935HI), Malta (2→1), Romania (4→2), Austria (17→14), Italy (17→15), Poland (18→15), Toronto (18→17), Denmark (38→36), Germany (49→47), Canada (53→50), Iran (54→54), Malaysia (71→69), Mexico (72→72), Norway (143→139), Turkey (177→171), Japan (441→441), Thailand (2682→2685), China (28695→28695)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Spain, Romania, Austria, Poland, Norway, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Italy, Denmark, Germany, Canada, Malaysia

The same: Malta, Toronto

Better: Iran, Mexico

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (51→56, 0.5%), New Zealand (new→136, 4.0%), Israel (136→144, 45.3%), India (1054→1119, 75.9%), Australia (new→2213, 14.8%), South Africa (new→4019, 29.3%), Indonesia (1945→4266, 96.2%), Ontario (9799, no new data, 95.1%), South Korea (new→11693, 21.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (8, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Cameroon (14, 21.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (14, 10.5%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 71.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mali (14, 98.0%); Nicaragua (14, 66.7%); Papua New Guinea (14, 14.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 14.3%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Somalia (14, 58.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Rwanda (20, 7.4%); Nigeria (50, 22.3%); Liberia (55, 5.9%); Barbados (100, 26.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (108, 3.0%); Suriname (139, 7.6%); Burkina Faso (141, 76.9%); Venezuela (146, 50.8%); Ecuador (148, 21.5%); Chad (198, 26.2%); Maldives (237, 36.4%); Bahrain (252, 47.0%); Lesotho (257, 83.8%); Tajikistan (261, 47.6%); Senegal (273, 29.1%); Madagascar (274, 9.8%); Colombia (290, 42.7%); Philippines (302, 47.9%); Peru (317, 34.2%); Yemen (390, 20.9%); Gabon (474, 15.2%); Gambia (576, 50.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (846, 73.0%); Dominican Republic (850, 62.3%); Bolivia (910, 64.4%); United Arab Emirates (976, 45.2%); Namibia (1067, 39.5%); Guyana (1191, 84.7%); Estonia (1193, 90.6%); Eswatini (1250, 15.5%); Kazakhstan (1538, 7.9%); Panama (1659, 82.7%); Saudi Arabia (1824, 13.5%); Afghanistan (2911, 36.4%); Central African Republic (3191, 62.2%); Bangladesh (3880, 76.2%); El Salvador (4328, 38.0%); Jamaica (4397, 91.9%); Sierra Leone (6874, 96.9%); Guatemala (9898, 40.4%); Mozambique (12810, 66.3%); Sudan (32622, 84.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (1): MI (2960, 88.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%)

Kudos to Michigan and Prince Edward Island for casting a ray of hope on their respective countries, as the only state and province that have seen a 7-day decline in active cases.

The City of Toronto started posting neighbourhood-level testing information in its excellent collection of open data today. It shows the number of individuals tested (not counting duplicates within a week) per 1,000 population, and the percentage positive rate for neighbourhoods with more than 5 cases in a week.

Today's chart shows active cases vs. rate of change for a selection of countries of interest overlapping with the list of regions of interest above. Since the last time I posted this chart three weeks ago, there's been a significant upward movement, where fewer countries are seeing recent decreases in active cases, and those that are increasing are increasing faster.

Toronto has seen an officially reported count of 1,848 new cases in the past seven days, which is within two cases of the average of the past three weeks. If I had to guess optimistically, I'd say that given how careful everyone I see is being, numbers must be starting to come down, and the reason that they appear to be up 4% over last week is a random fluctuation somewhere far above the maximum number of cases that we are set up to detect in a week.

B.C. is up 8% in a week, Alberta +27%, Saskatchewan +91%, Manitoba +58%, Ontario +4%, Quebec +5%, New Brunswick +46%, PEI down 5 to 3, Nova Scotia up from 4 to 6, Newfoundland and Labrador up from 9 to 11; the North is still free of COVID-19.

Stay safe.

2020-10-18

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (129HI→128HI), U.K. (143HI→140HI), Spain (249HI→249HI), U.S. (407HI→407HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), California (673HI→673HI), Sweden (688HI→688HI), Brazil (706HI→714HI), Louisiana (758HI→758HI), New York (953HI→929HI), South Africa (1283HI→1517HI), Malta (3→2), Romania (4→4), Austria (17→17), Italy (20→17), Poland (18→18), Toronto (19→18), Denmark (38→38), Germany (53→49), Canada (54→53), Iran (56→54), Malaysia (74→71), Mexico (77→72), Norway (147→143), Turkey (183→177), Japan (432→441), South Korea (936→921), Thailand (2977→2682), New Zealand (3276→2841), Australia (3020→3333), China (24954→28695)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Italy, Germany, Mexico, Norway, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Iran, Malaysia

The same: France, Malta, Toronto, Canada

Better: Spain, Romania, Austria, Poland, Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (62→51, 0.5%), Israel (125→136, 48.5%), India (1069→1054, 77.0%), Indonesia (1134→1945, 95.7%), Ontario (new→9799, 95.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (60): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (9, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Cuba (14, 34.4%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 71.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 8.2%); Nicaragua (14, 66.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 14.3%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Somalia (14, 58.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Rwanda (16, 7.9%); Benin (19, 15.2%); Burundi (45, 31.7%); Liberia (47, 5.9%); Nigeria (49, 21.9%); Suriname (102, 7.7%); Gabon (108, 15.2%); Chad (132, 23.2%); Peru (162, 32.4%); Burkina Faso (169, 79.4%); Tajikistan (239, 48.4%); Lesotho (255, 84.1%); Senegal (267, 29.8%); Madagascar (274, 9.8%); Colombia (299, 44.9%); Bahrain (332, 49.2%); Venezuela (379, 54.9%); Kazakhstan (405, 7.6%); Maldives (415, 37.7%); United Arab Emirates (523, 44.9%); Yemen (553, 21.2%); Estonia (608, 89.1%); Gambia (628, 50.1%); Guyana (631, 85.2%); Cote d'Ivoire (797, 3.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (812, 75.5%); Bolivia (839, 64.9%); Chile (842, 16.5%); Malawi (1053, 44.8%); Dominican Republic (1258, 62.9%); Central African Republic (1364, 62.2%); Namibia (1484, 38.9%); Saudi Arabia (2410, 13.5%); Burma (2424, 95.9%); Uganda (2735, 85.7%); Ghana (3010, 5.4%); Panama (3181, 83.0%); Qatar (3714, 9.0%); Afghanistan (3934, 36.4%); Bangladesh (8043, 76.6%); Haiti (9710, 51.2%); Sudan (12534, 84.2%); Jamaica (20633, 91.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (1): MI (2960, 88.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%)

Toronto Western Hospital, where my mother spend part of her last month, has declared its first COVID-19 outbreak in several months, with three patients and six staff in two units testing positive in what is likely a case of hospital-acquired transmission. St. Joseph's Health Centre, where I would normally go for a semiannual specialist checkup, has twenty cases in four units, including seven newly admitted into their COVID-19 unit. CAMH, with which I have no personal connection (it's a place that I know of from riding past to get to a Scrabble event) also declared an outbreak with two patients today.

There was a CBC story today that reported that Alberta is effectively not doing contact-tracing, because patients who have tested positive are not only not obliged to share their contact information, but more and more are refusing to cooperate. In Alberta now, they are only able to identify the cause of transmission of 57% of cases. In Toronto, we have temporarily suspended keeping track of this statistic, presumably until our overall numbers are low enough to make it practical to do anything more than ask everyone to avoid each other unless they are at school, work, or a small necessary gathering.

There were 192 new cases in Toronto today according to city statistics, the second day in a row that we recorded fewer than 200. Two deaths and 237 recoveries brought our official active case count down to 2,448; the real number is probably still a little less than 10,000.

Today's chart updates last week's, plotting school cases against correspondingly scaled active case numbers in Toronto and Ontario. It shows how school cases in the province have apparently reached the same 1 in 2,500 proportion as have officially confirmed cases in the general population. If the school cases continue to rise past this level next week, we might reasonably infer either that children are more infectious than adults, or adults are being tested less intensively than children.

Stay safe.

2020-10-17

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (129HI→129HI), U.K. (142HI→143HI), Spain (249HI→249HI), U.S. (418HI→407HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), California (650HI→673HI), Sweden (688HI→688HI), Brazil (690HI→706HI), New York (985HI→953HI), South Africa (1309HI→1283HI), Malta (6→3), Romania (5→4), Austria (19→17), Poland (20→18), Toronto (17→19), Italy (23→20), Germany (56→53), Canada (59→54), Iran (56→56), Ontario (70→70), Malaysia (82→74), Mexico (77→77), Norway (146→147), Turkey (183→183), Japan (432→432), Thailand (3262→2977), New Zealand (3276→3276), China (24954→24954)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malta, Canada, Malaysia

Worse: Austria, Poland, Italy, Germany

The same: Romania

Better: France, U.K., Spain, Iran, Ontario, Mexico, Norway, Turkey

Much better: Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (58→62, 0.6%), Israel (118→125, 51.5%), Louisiana (471→277, 22.1%), South Korea (370→458, 20.5%), Denmark (1295→1042, 78.8%), India (831→1069, 78.1%), Indonesia (911→1134, 95.5%), Australia (new→8741, 14.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (65): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (10, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 21.2%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 71.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 8.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 4.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Somalia (14, 58.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Benin (19, 15.2%); Rwanda (19, 12.5%); Burundi (37, 27.5%); Comoros (46, 9.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (58, 20.5%); Liberia (72, 6.7%); Gabon (108, 15.2%); Zambia (116, 18.5%); Burkina Faso (171, 79.4%); Peru (181, 34.0%); Senegal (193, 30.5%); Tajikistan (222, 49.7%); Namibia (268, 39.2%); Kazakhstan (281, 7.6%); Lesotho (291, 84.1%); Suriname (293, 8.2%); Venezuela (299, 55.1%); Colombia (318, 47.1%); United Arab Emirates (359, 44.2%); Bahrain (365, 51.8%); Uganda (380, 82.7%); Chile (400, 16.3%); Mozambique (423, 66.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (447, 75.5%); Malawi (487, 44.6%); Guyana (594, 85.1%); Gambia (628, 50.1%); Burma (631, 93.5%); Eswatini (668, 14.8%); Estonia (682, 92.1%); Cuba (689, 34.4%); Madagascar (712, 10.8%); Bolivia (755, 65.4%); Yemen (923, 21.4%); Afghanistan (949, 36.3%); Dominican Republic (1226, 63.6%); Jamaica (1348, 91.9%); Haiti (1362, 51.2%); Uzbekistan (1401, 25.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (1619, 3.3%); Tunisia (1820, 95.3%); Saudi Arabia (2214, 13.6%); Central African Republic (2387, 62.8%); El Salvador (2589, 38.7%); Qatar (3091, 9.0%); Sudan (3480, 84.2%); Maldives (34715, 40.5%); Bangladesh (57043, 76.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): VI (100, 4.7%); MA (5725, 37.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%)

Toronto set a record for largest number of new confirmed or probable cases reported in a single day of 374 (as reported to the province this morning) or 430 (as announced by the city late yesterday afternoon), surpassing the previous record of 358 (383). It's been a week since Thanksgiving, and I wonder if this is an indication that people weren't as socially distant for the holiday as the government recommended.

Active cases in Toronto have stayed between 2,400 and 2,500 for six days. We are averaging ten new hospitalisations daily, with a gradual net increase in hospital beds occupied after subtracting discharges and deaths, creeping up now to 113. Ten new hospitalisations will lead to 3.3 deaths; 60% of deaths have been hospitalised, so those 3.3 deaths will be recorded among 5.5 for this daily cohort. If the infection fatality rate is 0.5%-1.0%, that means that the corresponding number of new cases that should have been confirmed for those 5.5 deaths is 550 ~ 1,100 and not the 300 or so that are currently managing to get tested and confirmed.

This is worse than the last time that I ran this calculation, and is an indication that the statistics available increasingly reflect lack of access and timeliness in testing rather than a reduction in the number of cases or an improvement in our situation. It seems likely that there are at least 10,000 actively infected people in our population of 3 million, and that no one should be leaving their houses except for urgent reasons.

Today's chart updates last week's graph showing CMAJ data on active cases in each Canadian province and territory. In the past week, Ontario and Quebec have drifted slowly upward in lockstep; Manitoba has climbed rapidly to surpass B.C. for the first time; Alberta, New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador have exhibited steady exponential growth; Saskatchewan much more rapid exponential growth; Nova Scotia and P.E.I have at least managed to stay under 10 cases; and no new cases have been reported in the North.

Stay safe.

2020-10-16

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (131HI→129HI), U.K. (141HI→142HI), Spain (255HI→249HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (424HI→418HI), California (636HI→650HI), Sweden (654HI→688HI), Brazil (705HI→690HI), New York (958HI→985HI), South Africa (1292HI→1309HI), Romania (6→5), Malta (7→6), Toronto (19→17), Austria (19→19), Poland (22→20), Italy (27→23), Germany (61→56), Iran (57→56), Canada (54→59), Mexico (83→77), Malaysia (86→82), Norway (138→146), Turkey (186→183), Australia (2689→2955), Thailand (3107→3262), New Zealand (3541→3276), China (24551→24954)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Italy, Germany, Mexico, Malaysia

Worse: France, Toronto, Poland, Turkey

The same: Romania, Malta, Iran

Better: U.K., Austria, Norway

Much better: Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (84→58, 0.7%), Israel (138→118, 56.4%), South Korea (3362→370, 20.6%), Louisiana (251→471, 22.1%), India (872→831, 79.0%), Indonesia (3186→911, 95.0%), Ontario (new→1133, 96.6%), Denmark (1016→1295, 79.0%), Japan (3733→9459, 37.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (69): Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (11, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 5.7%); Comoros (14, 4.8%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Holy See (14, 100.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Somalia (14, 58.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 22.1%); Zimbabwe (14, 6.1%); Equatorial Guinea (16, 1.2%); Benin (19, 15.2%); Rwanda (19, 15.0%); Burundi (33, 25.8%); Antigua and Barbuda (58, 20.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (71, 5.5%); Gabon (78, 16.1%); Suriname (85, 7.7%); Zambia (116, 18.5%); Mauritania (129, 3.5%); Cuba (133, 30.7%); Namibia (169, 37.3%); Senegal (184, 31.6%); Kazakhstan (236, 7.6%); Mozambique (238, 65.5%); Madagascar (241, 10.8%); Tajikistan (289, 51.6%); Peru (301, 39.6%); Bhutan (302, 23.5%); Bahrain (314, 52.3%); Guinea-Bissau (326, 71.0%); Colombia (350, 48.2%); Gambia (364, 50.0%); United Arab Emirates (370, 45.4%); Venezuela (396, 57.7%); Uganda (400, 81.6%); Trinidad and Tobago (404, 75.4%); Burkina Faso (429, 88.7%); Malawi (431, 44.6%); Chile (490, 16.3%); Lesotho (537, 88.7%); Guyana (543, 86.5%); Bolivia (705, 65.8%); Guatemala (789, 41.3%); Burma (1018, 91.7%); Saudi Arabia (1194, 13.7%); Estonia (1227, 92.9%); Haiti (1362, 51.2%); Uzbekistan (1544, 25.9%); Afghanistan (1729, 36.4%); Dominican Republic (1896, 64.6%); Eswatini (2017, 15.1%); Jamaica (2041, 93.3%); Central African Republic (2387, 62.8%); Honduras (4384, 99.0%); El Salvador (5306, 39.0%); Sudan (7092, 84.2%); Iraq (7313, 88.6%); Qatar (11999, 9.0%); Bangladesh (23900, 76.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): VI (100, 4.7%); TN (639, 46.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.9%); PE (14, 15.0%)

Toronto and Ontario saw their lowest new case numbers in five days, but are still in quite dangerous territory, with 2,538 (up 131) and 5,873 (down 10) confirmed/probable active cases. School cases in both ended up 17% higher than a week ago, 203 and 734.

Today's chart shows the active cases in the countries of Asia and Oceania, stacked with the biggest (India, Russia, Bangladesh, Iran, Indonesia, Iraq, Philippines) on top. As a region, they are plateauing, but only because Russia is adding cases as quickly as India loses them.

Stay safe.

2020-10-15

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (141HI→131HI), U.K. (0→141HI), Spain (255HI→255HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (432HI→424HI), California (648HI→636HI), Sweden (0→654HI), Brazil (706HI→705HI), New York (958HI→958HI), South Africa (1379HI→1292HI), Romania (8→6), Malta (9→7), Austria (21→19), Toronto (19→19), Poland (25→22), Italy (31→27), Canada (54→54), Iran (60→57), Germany (67→61), Ontario (67→67), Malaysia (90→86), Norway (132→138), Turkey (188→186), Australia (2637→2689), Thailand (3603→3107), China (25150→24551)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, U.K., Sweden, Romania, Malta, Italy, Germany, Malaysia

Worse: Austria, Poland, Iran, Turkey

Better: Spain, Toronto, Canada, Ontario, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (72→84, 0.8%), Israel (210→138, 61.7%), Louisiana (309→251, 20.5%), New Zealand (184→257, 4.5%), India (869→872, 79.8%), Denmark (720→1016, 79.2%), Indonesia (205147→3186, 97.2%), South Korea (635→3362, 21.4%), Japan (5007→3733, 37.5%), Mexico (891→6209, 76.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (12, 0.0%); Barbados (14, 30.8%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Comoros (14, 4.8%); Dominica (14, 57.1%); Eritrea (14, 30.4%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Holy See (14, 100.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 7.8%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); San Marino (14, 6.0%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Taiwan (14, 12.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zimbabwe (14, 6.4%); Benin (16, 13.0%); Equatorial Guinea (16, 1.2%); Rwanda (30, 23.9%); Burundi (47, 25.8%); Cambodia (51, 5.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (58, 20.5%); Cuba (63, 30.5%); Gabon (78, 16.1%); Ecuador (80, 27.8%); Mauritania (87, 3.5%); Zambia (111, 18.8%); Senegal (175, 32.7%); Madagascar (188, 10.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (189, 3.7%); Suriname (215, 8.8%); Peru (260, 39.6%); Philippines (275, 55.6%); Mozambique (285, 66.5%); Guinea-Bissau (326, 71.0%); Bahrain (329, 54.1%); Guatemala (333, 40.5%); Namibia (379, 40.7%); Tajikistan (386, 53.4%); Malawi (401, 44.5%); United Arab Emirates (409, 47.0%); Burma (433, 90.8%); Kazakhstan (437, 8.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (439, 75.9%); El Salvador (476, 38.4%); Eswatini (588, 15.8%); Colombia (630, 50.3%); West Bank and Gaza (630, 50.8%); Saudi Arabia (661, 13.7%); Bahamas (695, 95.3%); Gambia (869, 52.8%); Uganda (869, 85.3%); Bolivia (996, 67.5%); Uzbekistan (1012, 26.0%); Iraq (1199, 88.3%); Chile (1496, 16.7%); Haiti (1560, 50.7%); Estonia (1880, 92.9%); Central African Republic (2387, 62.8%); Jamaica (2685, 92.6%); Burkina Faso (2729, 93.8%); Sierra Leone (3460, 97.3%); Dominican Republic (4637, 65.5%); Guyana (10104, 86.9%); Bangladesh (13186, 77.1%); Sudan (27221, 84.5%); Afghanistan (27263, 36.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): MP (14, 92.5%); VI (211, 5.1%); NC (215, 81.6%); MS (1020, 45.5%); IA (1169, 88.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 4.7%); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (25, 0.6%)

I think it's safe to say that we've reached a plateau in Toronto. Our confirmed/probable active cases have hovered around 2,400 for almost two weeks. Our hospitalisation count has been around 100 for a week. School cases are up slightly over the past few days, but are climbing at a much slower rate than before. Since we cut back on the availability of tests, our 24-hour turnaround percentage has increased to 28%, and our positivity count has levelled off at about 3.1%. So we're in serious trouble, but it doesn't seem to be getting worse. I don't think we've finished seeing the effect of the recent restrictions, so I expect that we won't be getting worse as long as they are in place.

Today's chart shows the rates of active infection by age range in Toronto. More people in their 50s and 60s have been getting sick in the last week, while under-20s have been leading the way in reducing their numbers.

Stay safe.

2020-10-14

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (142HI→141HI), Spain (259HI→255HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (441HI→432HI), California (672HI→648HI), Brazil (682HI→706HI), New York (940HI→958HI), South Africa (1379HI→1379HI), Sweden (1→0), U.K. (2→0), Romania (9→8), Malta (10→9), Toronto (21→19), Austria (23→21), Poland (28→25), Italy (35→31), Canada (65→54), Iran (60→60), Germany (72→67), Ontario (69→67), Malaysia (92→90), Norway (123→132), Turkey (189→188), Australia (2931→2637), Thailand (new→3603), China (25147→25150)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, U.K., Italy, Canada, Germany

Worse: Toronto, Austria, Poland, Ontario, Malaysia

The same: France, Sweden, Romania, Malta, Turkey

Better: Iran, Norway

Much better: Thailand

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (102→72, 0.8%), New Zealand (348→184, 4.3%), Israel (311→210, 67.4%), Louisiana (new→309, 18.9%), South Korea (new→635, 20.7%), Denmark (1030→720, 78.6%), India (905→869, 81.2%), Mexico (668→891, 70.2%), Japan (new→5007, 37.4%), Indonesia (new→205147, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Brunei (6, 0.0%); Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 25.0%); Benin (14, 48.1%); Cameroon (14, 15.8%); Comoros (14, 4.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 65.6%); Dominica (14, 57.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Holy See (14, 100.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Luxembourg (14, 48.8%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 35.6%); San Marino (14, 6.0%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zimbabwe (14, 6.1%); Equatorial Guinea (15, 1.2%); Djibouti (27, 0.2%); Cambodia (51, 5.7%); Rwanda (53, 35.0%); Mauritania (65, 3.7%); Cuba (69, 34.4%); Ecuador (74, 25.0%); Bhutan (81, 23.5%); Zambia (132, 20.5%); Madagascar (161, 10.8%); Gabon (181, 19.5%); Senegal (185, 33.6%); Eswatini (202, 15.2%); Philippines (268, 54.1%); Guatemala (293, 40.4%); Cote d'Ivoire (299, 3.3%); Guinea-Bissau (326, 71.0%); Namibia (346, 39.8%); El Salvador (396, 37.8%); Bahrain (397, 54.8%); Mozambique (411, 67.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (486, 78.6%); Venezuela (516, 60.7%); Haiti (533, 51.4%); Iraq (560, 87.4%); Tajikistan (564, 54.9%); West Bank and Gaza (569, 50.9%); Saudi Arabia (585, 13.7%); Guyana (593, 89.4%); United Arab Emirates (644, 48.4%); Malawi (673, 46.1%); Peru (735, 43.1%); Kazakhstan (742, 8.3%); Uzbekistan (835, 26.4%); Gambia (951, 52.6%); Bolivia (1127, 68.4%); Burkina Faso (1132, 93.8%); Uganda (1366, 86.8%); Suriname (2004, 9.4%); Estonia (2460, 93.5%); Dominican Republic (2717, 65.1%); Yemen (2850, 22.1%); Bangladesh (5855, 77.0%); Sudan (8179, 84.5%); Afghanistan (8276, 36.7%); Argentina (8697, 99.4%); Qatar (9730, 9.1%); Sierra Leone (13798, 97.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): VI (75, 5.1%); NC (177, 74.4%); MS (277, 40.0%); MP (516, 92.5%); PR (2275, 94.6%); IA (6872, 87.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (37, 0.9%); NL (94, 4.2%); QC (30261, 42.5%)

Sweden and the U.K. joined the 1% club today, having transmitted COVID-19 to 1 in 100 of their population. There are now 35 countries in that category: Andorra, Argentina, Armenia, Bahamas, Bahrain, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Cabo Verde, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czechia, Dominican Republic, France, Holy See, Iceland, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Maldives, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Oman, Panama, Peru, Qatar, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, US, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom.

School case numbers dropped for the first time in Ontario, as well as in Toronto, Ottawa and Brampton, if slightly. Here's hoping it's the start of a downturn in COVID-19 in the classroom, and not just a levelling off into a plateau. Overall active case numbers in Toronto likewise dropped slightly, although there it's a matter of two or three days of increases followed by one decrease, so not quite at a plateau yet, just losing momentum.

Today's chart is the weekly one showing cases in Toronto neighbourhoods. No new cases in our neighbourhood this week for the first time in a little while. Interact with the chart here.

Stay safe.

2020-10-13

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (144HI→142HI), Spain (240HI→259HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (445HI→441HI), California (653HI→672HI), Brazil (557HI→682HI), Louisiana (779HI→779HI), New York (948HI→940HI), South Africa (1407HI→1379HI), Sweden (4→1), U.K. (3→2), Romania (10→9), Malta (12→10), Toronto (25→21), Austria (23→23), Poland (31→28), Italy (39→35), Iran (61→60), Canada (65→65), Ontario (75→69), Germany (78→72), Malaysia (89→92), Norway (123→123), Indonesia (159→161), Turkey (192→189), Japan (450→455), South Korea (962→919), Australia (3058→2931), China (28401→25147)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, Toronto, Italy, Ontario, Germany

Worse: France, Malta, Poland, Turkey

The same: U.K., Romania, Iran

Better: Spain, Austria, Canada, Malaysia, Norway, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (83→102, 0.9%), Israel (901→311, 73.7%), New Zealand (new→348, 4.2%), Mexico (new→668, 68.0%), India (1249→905, 82.4%), Denmark (472→1030, 81.6%), Thailand (new→2824, 8.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (69): Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Brunei (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 25.0%); Benin (14, 48.1%); Bhutan (14, 21.2%); Cambodia (14, 5.7%); Cameroon (14, 15.8%); Comoros (14, 12.5%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Holy See (14, 100.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Luxembourg (14, 48.8%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 60.7%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); San Marino (14, 6.0%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zimbabwe (14, 5.7%); Equatorial Guinea (15, 1.2%); Djibouti (27, 0.2%); Seychelles (37, 4.5%); Mauritania (44, 3.4%); Ecuador (66, 22.3%); Cuba (77, 35.7%); Ghana (103, 4.7%); Niger (110, 1.8%); Rwanda (116, 46.7%); Madagascar (121, 11.2%); Suriname (133, 8.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (165, 3.3%); Eswatini (166, 15.4%); Gabon (172, 19.5%); Zambia (197, 23.3%); Bahrain (204, 57.0%); Senegal (246, 35.9%); Philippines (264, 52.1%); Guatemala (312, 41.5%); Guinea-Bissau (326, 71.0%); El Salvador (436, 39.3%); Mozambique (449, 71.8%); United Arab Emirates (467, 49.2%); Uzbekistan (468, 26.2%); Iraq (484, 87.8%); Saudi Arabia (517, 13.8%); Venezuela (617, 62.6%); Guyana (798, 89.5%); Haiti (806, 52.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (869, 81.1%); West Bank and Gaza (954, 51.8%); Kazakhstan (994, 8.6%); Gambia (1009, 52.6%); Bolivia (1190, 69.3%); Estonia (1216, 96.1%); Tajikistan (1241, 56.9%); Burkina Faso (1279, 93.6%); Malawi (1676, 47.4%); Qatar (1804, 9.1%); Yemen (2824, 21.9%); Bangladesh (3758, 77.0%); Argentina (4020, 97.3%); Kuwait (4939, 46.9%); Peru (5963, 43.9%); Sierra Leone (6890, 97.1%); Central African Republic (78221, 63.6%); Dominican Republic (94728, 65.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): VI (118, 5.4%); NC (173, 69.0%); MS (267, 36.4%); PR (767, 90.8%); WA (1819, 97.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%); QC (555, 40.3%)

I marked an unusual event in the COVID-19 pandemic today: the JHU database started tracking a new country today, Solomon Islands, which saw their first case on October 3rd, and their second on October 11th. The first was reportedly among 400 students stranded in the Philippines, who are beginning to be repatriated. The second sat next to the first on their return flight. The database that I had originally found populations of all the countries in the world had missed Solomon Islands, so data imports temporarily stopped for me until I manually created that record.

Prior to Solomon Islands, the most recent country to experience its first case of COVID-19 was Lesotho on May 13.

The school that my younger son would be going to if we weren't safely attending virtual school from home has notified us that one Grade 9 (his grade) cohort is currently in isolation as a result of a positive test result.

My older son's school has let us know that this week's deadline to switch between virtual and on-site schooling has been indefinitely postponed, as the school board reevaluates its service delivery model.

My late mother's nursing home has an outbreak, with 45 confirmed cases and 5 deaths among 130 patients, and 27 staff sick which I'm guessing is at least half of them. Nursing/medical students are apparently volunteering to help on an emergency basis.

Today's chart is an update of the continental chart, showing Europe's continual exponential surge.

My commentary is going to be a little terser even than usual for the next couple of weeks, as I am swamped with work from two of my clients.

Stay safe.

2020-10-12

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (147HI→144HI), Spain (249HI→240HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (455HI→445HI), Brazil (545HI→557HI), California (733HI→653HI), Louisiana (779HI→779HI), New York (909HI→948HI), South Africa (1329HI→1407HI), U.K. (3→3), Sweden (4→4), Romania (11→10), Malta (13→12), Austria (25→23), Toronto (25→25), Poland (34→31), Italy (43→39), Mexico (45→45), Iran (62→61), Canada (57→65), Ontario (75→75), Germany (84→78), Malaysia (90→89), Norway (120→123), Indonesia (157→159), Turkey (192→192), Japan (454→450), South Korea (1005→962), Thailand (2600→2602), New Zealand (2492→3029), Australia (3272→3058), China (28660→28401)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Italy, Germany

Worse: France, Austria, Poland

The same: Romania, Malta, Iran, Malaysia

Better: U.K., Sweden, Toronto, Mexico, Ontario, Norway, Indonesia, Turkey

Much better: Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (74→83, 1.0%), Denmark (336→472, 81.3%), Israel (1822→901, 82.7%), India (1263→1249, 84.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (65): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (8, 0.0%); Benin (14, 48.1%); Cambodia (14, 5.7%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Luxembourg (14, 48.8%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 10.7%); Monaco (14, 37.2%); Nicaragua (14, 60.7%); Niger (14, 1.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 22.1%); Bhutan (16, 24.7%); Seychelles (37, 4.5%); Djibouti (42, 0.3%); Ghana (59, 4.8%); Mauritania (61, 4.1%); Comoros (63, 12.5%); Cuba (71, 37.1%); Ecuador (73, 21.5%); Madagascar (92, 12.1%); Eswatini (110, 15.3%); Botswana (158, 77.6%); Philippines (201, 48.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (212, 3.9%); Uzbekistan (232, 26.4%); Cameroon (262, 15.8%); Senegal (277, 37.5%); United Arab Emirates (296, 50.4%); El Salvador (410, 39.3%); West Bank and Gaza (422, 51.0%); Guyana (508, 91.4%); Iraq (514, 89.2%); Guatemala (531, 43.3%); Saudi Arabia (545, 14.1%); Malawi (574, 47.8%); Zambia (594, 23.3%); Venezuela (724, 63.6%); Bahrain (890, 58.6%); Rwanda (1008, 59.1%); Haiti (1053, 52.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (1082, 81.7%); Burkina Faso (1146, 94.8%); Bolivia (1204, 70.0%); Qatar (1431, 9.0%); Kazakhstan (1786, 8.8%); Kuwait (2014, 45.4%); Tajikistan (2099, 57.3%); Bangladesh (3220, 77.1%); Gabon (3366, 22.7%); Mozambique (4048, 75.5%); Sudan (7687, 84.6%); Sierra Leone (13766, 97.1%); Gambia (23110, 54.3%); Central African Republic (39118, 63.6%); Lesotho (72821, 93.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): VI (14, 5.4%); NC (168, 64.2%); MS (274, 33.5%); PR (1076, 93.1%); WA (12647, 98.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); QC (955, 40.6%)

No new stats from Toronto, Ontario, or much of the rest of Canada this Thanksgiving Monday, so the better ratings are spurious. Enjoy the time off - in small, safe, groups, and if you're lucky, with a reasonable amount of turkey.

Today's charts demonstrate a new type of chart on my webpage: phase diagrams of rated of new cases per active case (both averaged over seven days) plotted against proportion of infected population. This is probably what I should have been doing from the start, as the old ones that plotted new cases per cumulative case become less relevant with each new recovery. Here, we can see that in the best-case scenarios in countries like New Zealand and Thailand, whenever there's an outbreak you still get transmission of up to almost 20% (1 new case daily per 5 active), that you can bring it down quickly through strict measures, but until there's a change in the situation (like reliable mass vaccination) you're going to be circling around a point somewhere around 5~10% transmission and 1 in 100,000~1,000,000 actively infected. We can also see that countries like Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K. don't really take action until we reach about 0.1% (1 in 1,000 actively infected), and that when we do take action, it's not for long enough to bring our levels down to manageable ones.

Stay safe.

2020-10-11

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (116HI→122HI), Spain (216HI→216HI), Alabama (399HI→399HI), U.S. (434HI→402HI), Brazil (496HI→599HI), California (830HI→687HI), New York (849HI→849HI), Louisiana (987HI→987HI), South Africa (1580HI→1053HI), U.K. (4→3), Sweden (4→4), Romania (11→10), Malta (13→12), Austria (23→23), Toronto (22→23), Poland (30→28), Italy (39→35), Canada (75→60), Iran (62→62), Ontario (69→67), Mexico (75→75), Germany (73→79), Malaysia (110→107), Norway (96→124), Indonesia (153→154), Turkey (188→191), Japan (394→394), New Zealand (2425→2425), Australia (3421→2921), China (25776→25776)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Italy, Canada

Worse: Poland, Ontario, Malaysia

The same: U.K., Romania, Malta

Better: France, Spain, Sweden, Austria, Toronto, Iran, Mexico, Germany, Indonesia, Turkey

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (74, no new data, 1.0%), Thailand (82, no new data, 8.7%), Denmark (336, no new data, 82.1%), South Korea (435, no new data, 21.6%), India (2086→1263, 85.2%), Israel (1822, no new data, 85.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (59): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.4%); Kosovo (14, 29.9%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 21.9%); Bhutan (15, 22.4%); Niger (20, 1.8%); Mongolia (27, 4.5%); Seychelles (37, 4.5%); Djibouti (42, 0.3%); Ghana (59, 4.8%); Comoros (63, 12.5%); Madagascar (70, 12.5%); Mauritania (80, 4.4%); Cuba (118, 45.3%); Kenya (130, 62.8%); Eswatini (140, 16.4%); Botswana (158, 77.6%); Monaco (174, 35.6%); Mozambique (235, 74.8%); Cameroon (262, 15.8%); United Arab Emirates (333, 51.7%); Senegal (367, 39.2%); Guyana (395, 87.2%); Bahrain (396, 60.3%); Uzbekistan (406, 26.9%); Mauritius (439, 10.7%); Malawi (448, 48.0%); Venezuela (552, 64.2%); Gabon (635, 22.7%); Burkina Faso (677, 94.8%); Saudi Arabia (715, 14.6%); Haiti (716, 51.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (722, 81.7%); Iraq (865, 91.8%); El Salvador (875, 41.4%); Peru (891, 47.5%); Kazakhstan (897, 8.8%); Bolivia (954, 70.6%); Kuwait (1054, 45.4%); Chile (1087, 17.2%); Rwanda (1143, 60.2%); West Bank and Gaza (1541, 54.0%); Qatar (2311, 9.1%); Bangladesh (3269, 77.4%); Tajikistan (8438, 57.8%); Nicaragua (13269, 60.7%); Sudan (30666, 84.6%); Central African Republic (39118, 63.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): PR (983, 94.5%); MI (4011, 92.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): NT, YT (eradicated)

There are now no Canadian provinces in which the number of active cases has declined over the past week. P.E.I. was the last holdout, but when they jumped from 3 to 5 cases today, as a result of two unrelated men testing positive after returning from travel outside the Atlantic bubble, the island joined the rest of the country.

In Toronto and in Ontario, while numbers are up since a week ago, they have not been increasing steadily day by day. I am concerned that this may be an artifact of how we have changed our testing practices recently. Two months ago, anyone who wanted a test got it, most had their results back within 24 hours, and only 0.3% were testing positive. Now, it's difficult to get a test, you have only an 11% chance of getting your results back within 24 hours, and those that do get their results are returning 3.0% positive.

In the past week, we have seen 85 new hospitalisations, of whom we expect on average 28 to die. If the infection fatality rate if 0.5%-1.0%, then those 28 would represent 2800-5600 newly infected patients per week. In recent data, fatalities are first hospitalized an average of five days after their (infectious) episode dates, and instead during the seven-day period ending five days ago only 1,850 new confirmed or probable cases were reported. So lack of testing is resulting in underreporting of cases by a factor of 1.5 to 3.0.

Doing the same calculations two months ago, for the week ending August 11th, we saw 3 new hospitalisations and expected one death, corresponding to 100-200 new cases in the week ending August 6th. The actual number was 115, so if we missed any it was relatively much fewer.

So bearing that in mind, Toronto reported only 140 new cases today (it's a holiday weekend, so testing might have been reduced), from which I infer that the actual number is in the range of 200-400. We had one death, and 258 reported recoveries, and our official active case count dropped to 2,392 (and I'd estimate 3,500-7,000).

Today's chart plots the growth in school cases in Toronto and Ontario since schools reopened, and compares them to the active case counts in the general population. You can see Toronto and Ontario's active numbers apparently starting to level off.

Stay safe.

2020-10-10

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (160HI→149HI), Spain (249HI→249HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (471HI→462HI), Brazil (536HI→557HI), California (807HI→801HI), New York (906HI→909HI), South Africa (1558HI→1608HI), Sweden (4→4), U.K. (5→4), Romania (15→13), Malta (17→14), Toronto (27→24), Austria (27→26), Poland (42→37), Mexico (45→45), Italy (55→48), Canada (55→57), Iran (64→63), Ontario (79→76), Germany (94→88), Malaysia (96→96), Norway (129→119), Indonesia (159→158), Turkey (196→192), Japan (466→454), New Zealand (2014→2492), Australia (3609→3404), China (31606→28660)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Malta, Poland, Italy, Germany, Norway, Turkey

Worse: Romania, Toronto, Ontario

The same: U.K., Austria, Iran, Indonesia

Better: Spain, Sweden, Mexico, Canada, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (74→74, 1.0%), Thailand (229→82, 8.7%), Denmark (305→336, 82.1%), South Korea (141→435, 21.6%), Louisiana (1370→500, 21.4%), Israel (409→1822, 85.9%), India (1289→2086, 86.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (59): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.4%); Kosovo (14, 29.9%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 21.9%); Bhutan (15, 22.4%); Niger (20, 1.8%); Mongolia (27, 4.5%); Seychelles (37, 4.5%); Djibouti (42, 0.3%); Ghana (59, 4.8%); Comoros (63, 12.5%); Madagascar (70, 12.5%); Mauritania (80, 4.4%); Cuba (118, 45.3%); Kenya (130, 62.8%); Eswatini (140, 16.4%); Botswana (158, 77.6%); Monaco (174, 35.6%); Mozambique (235, 74.8%); Cameroon (262, 15.8%); United Arab Emirates (333, 51.7%); Senegal (367, 39.2%); Guyana (395, 87.2%); Bahrain (396, 60.3%); Uzbekistan (406, 26.9%); Mauritius (439, 10.7%); Malawi (448, 48.0%); Venezuela (552, 64.2%); Gabon (635, 22.7%); Burkina Faso (677, 94.8%); Saudi Arabia (715, 14.6%); Haiti (716, 51.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (722, 81.7%); Iraq (865, 91.8%); El Salvador (875, 41.4%); Peru (891, 47.5%); Kazakhstan (897, 8.8%); Bolivia (954, 70.6%); Kuwait (1054, 45.4%); Chile (1087, 17.2%); Rwanda (1143, 60.2%); West Bank and Gaza (1541, 54.0%); Qatar (2311, 9.1%); Bangladesh (3269, 77.4%); Tajikistan (8438, 57.8%); Nicaragua (13269, 60.7%); Sudan (30666, 84.6%); Central African Republic (39118, 63.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (3): VI (265, 6.1%); PR (1700, 96.3%); MA (1934, 32.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%)

There were more than 50,000 new cases for a second day in a row in the United States, for the first time since mid-August. Active cases are on the rise in every state except for Massachusetts.

17 new hospitalizations in Toronto brought us up to 102, the first time we've been over 100 since July 25th. To be clear, there were 95 COVID-19 patients in hospital yesterday, so 10 must have either been discharged or died. With apologies to the five Torontonians reported to have died today, I think the hospitalization figures are the most important ones to watch, as the next tipping point we are heading toward is when we run out of hospital beds and go back to being unable to provide the best medical care to those who need it.

383 new cases in Toronto, five deaths, and 269 recoveries bring us to 2,511 active cases. That's close enough to where we peaked in April to be well within the margin of actual vs confirmed cases. If we followed the same curve as the first wave, we would be back down to our low August numbers by February; it's unlikely though, with schools and workplaces open, and colder weather on its way.

809 new cases in Ontario, seven deaths, and 700 recoveries give us a record 5,754 active cases.

Today's chart is an update of the Canadian provinces and territories chart based on CMAJ data, showing the continuing recent spike in New Brunswick, possible levelling in Quebec, slowing down in Ontario, and steady increases in Alberta and Manitoba. Active cases have increased over the past seven days in every province except for P.E.I.

Stay safe.

2020-10-09

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (0→160HI), Spain (252HI→249HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (485HI→471HI), California (807HI→807HI), New York (906HI→906HI), South Africa (1558HI→1558HI), Sweden (6→4), U.K. (6→5), Romania (17→15), Malta (19→17), Austria (29→27), Toronto (27→27), Poland (48→42), Mexico (46→45), Canada (60→55), Italy (64→55), Iran (66→64), Ontario (82→79), Germany (104→94), Malaysia (97→96), Norway (128→129), Indonesia (156→159), Turkey (199→196), Japan (470→466), New Zealand (2348→2014), China (35644→31606)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Sweden, Poland, Canada, Italy, Germany

Worse: Spain, Romania, Malta, Austria, Iran, Ontario, Turkey

The same: U.K., Mexico, Malaysia

Better: Toronto, Norway, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (216→74, 1.1%), South Korea (183→141, 21.6%), Thailand (206→229, 8.8%), Denmark (409→305, 84.7%), Israel (373→409, 85.5%), India (1506→1289, 87.8%), Louisiana (1243→1370, 21.4%), Australia (8706→7174, 14.5%), Brazil (4859→9737, 65.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (11, 0.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 50.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 6.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Somalia (14, 55.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (25, 2.0%); Monaco (34, 32.4%); Djibouti (42, 0.3%); Madagascar (55, 14.0%); Nicaragua (61, 60.7%); Bhutan (84, 57.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (87, 3.9%); Kenya (93, 56.9%); Cuba (109, 49.8%); Ghana (134, 6.0%); Botswana (158, 77.6%); Mozambique (164, 77.4%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); Eswatini (183, 17.9%); Mauritania (193, 5.5%); Kosovo (225, 28.8%); Gabon (228, 22.9%); Cameroon (262, 15.8%); Peru (283, 44.3%); United Arab Emirates (304, 53.5%); Uganda (323, 88.6%); Namibia (365, 43.0%); Senegal (369, 40.9%); Montenegro (405, 91.6%); Pakistan (424, 8.0%); Venezuela (459, 66.6%); Cabo Verde (467, 81.0%); Malawi (499, 48.3%); Luxembourg (531, 48.8%); Saudi Arabia (601, 14.9%); Uzbekistan (603, 28.2%); Chile (605, 17.0%); Kazakhstan (620, 8.9%); Nigeria (976, 43.3%); Bahrain (984, 68.0%); Guinea-Bissau (1004, 77.4%); Bolivia (1042, 71.9%); Rwanda (1045, 60.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (1174, 84.2%); Burkina Faso (1404, 95.7%); Yemen (1431, 22.1%); Jamaica (1512, 91.3%); West Bank and Gaza (1538, 53.8%); El Salvador (1597, 42.6%); Zimbabwe (1617, 44.7%); Guyana (1649, 93.0%); Iraq (2424, 96.7%); Maldives (2671, 40.4%); Bangladesh (4480, 78.0%); Central African Republic (7128, 63.6%); Tajikistan (11361, 58.3%); Sudan (11460, 84.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): MP (14, 87.7%); VI (265, 6.1%); MA (1192, 30.7%); SC (2705, 98.3%); ME (2796, 82.6%); PR (3477, 95.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.6%); PE (25, 15.0%); SK (793, 43.3%)

The list of U.S. states and territories whose active case numbers are decreasing (and so whose situation is improving) is down to 6. It wasn't that long ago that a small majority were improving, and the last time it was 6 was on July 26th. MP is the Northern Mariana Islands, VI are the Virgin Islands, and PR is Puerto Rico, so it's only 3 of the 50 states (Massachusetts, South Carolina and Maine) that have improved over the past week. And since SC is at 98.3% of its peak, it looks like it's not actually on the road to recovery.

Today's chart updates the one that shows the active cases in every U.S. state and territory, stacked by current active numbers.

Canada of course also has only three provinces that have been improving over the past week - Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, P.E.I. - after New Brunswick leapt from 5 to 37 cases in three days as a result of outbreaks in a nursing home and in a restaurant in what had been one of the safest provinces in the country. The recent new cases in Newfoundland and Labrador appear to be imported by travel, and then communicated through close contact.

Some people in Ontario have been asking why we are seeing so many cases up here too. Most people understand that it's because we pretended that we were done with the pandemic at the end of the summer, but it wasn't done with us. So we sent our kids back to school so that we could go back to work, and the economy could go back to normal. Except that now our hospitals are filling up (even the official numbers say they will be full in 30 days), and our schools are closing because our kids are sick, and people can't go to work because they're sick or someone they're close to is sick.

So as of tonight, indoor restaurant seating, sports activities, and performances must close for 28 days in affected areas such as Toronto; those who wish to infect others should go to schools, places of worship, daycares, after-school programmes, or small social gatherings.

333 new cases in Toronto, 5 more deaths, and 248 recoveries, so we are back up to 2,402 known active cases. Only 4 more cases in 2 schools, bringing us to 173 cases in 127 schools (of which 7 are in outbreak status).

Elsewhere in the province, Halton, Hamilton, Middlesex-London, Peel, Simcoe Muskoka, and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph districts all had their worst days (most new cases) since spring (possibly ever), as did the province itself with its record-setting 939 cases.

Stay safe.

2020-10-08

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Spain (263HI→252HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (489HI→485HI), California (825HI→807HI), New York (947HI→906HI), France (1→0), Sweden (8→6), U.K. (7→6), Romania (19→17), Malta (21→19), Toronto (28→27), Austria (32→29), Poland (55→48), Canada (64→60), Italy (71→64), Iran (69→66), Ontario (88→82), Malaysia (99→97), Germany (115→104), Indonesia (159→156), Turkey (204→199), China (35644→35644)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Sweden, Poland, Canada, Italy, Ontario, Germany, Turkey

Worse: Romania, Malta, Austria, Iran, Malaysia, Indonesia

The same: France, U.K., Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: South Korea (243→183, 22.3%), Thailand (new→206, 8.5%), Singapore (120→216, 1.3%), Japan (3639→336, 36.6%), New Zealand (168→348, 4.2%), Israel (383→373, 87.1%), Mexico (311→404, 68.9%), Denmark (574→409, 87.9%), Louisiana (new→1243, 20.9%), India (1439→1506, 88.7%), Norway (new→4543, 72.6%), Brazil (1883→4859, 66.1%), Australia (3956→8706, 14.6%), South Africa (3813→9774, 28.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (81): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Lucia (1, 0.0%); Brunei (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 18.2%); Botswana (14, 94.1%); Cameroon (14, 17.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 50.0%); Eritrea (14, 29.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vietnam (14, 8.4%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zambia (14, 24.5%); Niger (20, 1.8%); Liberia (36, 6.1%); Monaco (46, 37.2%); Nicaragua (61, 60.7%); Madagascar (87, 16.2%); Kenya (89, 55.3%); Ecuador (106, 36.1%); Djibouti (110, 0.4%); Sao Tome and Principe (142, 3.4%); Cuba (157, 53.5%); Mozambique (157, 76.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (167, 4.3%); Bahrain (175, 61.0%); Mauritania (197, 5.9%); Equatorial Guinea (198, 3.0%); Kosovo (210, 28.8%); Gabon (228, 22.9%); Eswatini (239, 19.1%); Peru (239, 45.5%); Philippines (290, 60.1%); Pakistan (296, 7.7%); Uganda (300, 88.9%); West Bank and Gaza (338, 55.7%); Senegal (448, 42.2%); Ghana (469, 7.4%); Venezuela (476, 67.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (485, 79.7%); Zimbabwe (498, 43.7%); Montenegro (524, 92.5%); Luxembourg (531, 48.8%); Namibia (566, 43.5%); Saudi Arabia (630, 15.2%); Suriname (650, 9.1%); Yemen (721, 22.1%); Maldives (733, 38.8%); United Arab Emirates (759, 57.5%); Kazakhstan (776, 9.0%); Bhutan (975, 61.2%); Guinea-Bissau (1004, 77.4%); Morocco (1042, 96.0%); Rwanda (1135, 60.9%); Bolivia (1185, 72.6%); Nigeria (1201, 43.5%); Jamaica (1363, 93.1%); Haiti (1408, 54.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (1467, 84.2%); El Salvador (1472, 42.9%); Burkina Faso (1537, 97.2%); Chile (1589, 17.2%); Malawi (1901, 50.4%); Iraq (2312, 97.6%); Dominican Republic (2840, 64.9%); Tajikistan (3405, 58.1%); Bangladesh (3590, 78.2%); Guatemala (3620, 46.6%); Kuwait (3768, 46.3%); Gambia (5272, 54.4%); Sudan (7168, 85.0%); Central African Republic (7843, 63.7%); Lesotho (24294, 93.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (7): VI (14, 5.4%); MA (685, 28.7%); AR (1811, 86.0%); NC (3136, 90.1%); SC (3821, 98.3%); WV (4832, 98.3%); MN (8980, 96.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 2.1%); NS (14, 0.6%); PE (25, 15.0%); SK (335, 44.5%)

France reached the 1% cumulative confirmed/probable mark today. I thought we would be done with this pandemic before any country reached the 1% mark, because so many things would have to go wrong for that to happen, and now I'm not even sure we'll avoid it in Canada.

Today's chart shows the whole world, plotting the original cumulative case proportion against rate of increase, to illustrate how many countries have made it past 1% and are heading quickly to 10% and beyond.

In Toronto, we had 271 new confirmed cases, no deaths (for the first time in a week and a half), and 256 recoveries, inching us back up to 2,322 active cases. However, our recent case fatality rate is still above 10%, hospitalization numbers are steadily increasing (89 now compared to 65 at the end of last month), and we are seeing one new case for every nine cases we know about, so it seems improbable that the cases that are confirmed represent the majority of the actual cases. Of those 271 new cases, 21 were reported in publicly funded schools in Toronto, which now have a total of 169 cases in 125 schools.

In Ontario, a record 797 new cases (including a record 182 in Ottawa), 4 deaths and 695 recoveries increased our active case count again, to 5,442. School cases were up 69 to 610 in 415 schools.

Stay safe.

2020-10-07

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Spain (263HI→263HI), Alabama (400HI→408HI), U.S. (495HI→489HI), Louisiana (687HI→779HI), California (786HI→825HI), New York (1012HI→947HI), France (4→1), U.K. (11→7), Sweden (18→8), Romania (23→19), Malta (27→21), Toronto (27→28), Austria (36→32), Poland (65→55), Canada (67→64), Iran (71→69), Italy (85→71), Ontario (87→88), Malaysia (151→99), Germany (131→115), Norway (164→139), Indonesia (158→159), Turkey (209→204), Thailand (2918→2587), China (31272→35644)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, U.K., Sweden, Romania, Malta, Austria, Poland, Italy, Malaysia, Germany, Norway, Turkey

Worse: Canada, Iran

Better: Spain, Toronto, Ontario, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (105→120, 1.3%), New Zealand (14→168, 4.0%), South Korea (836→243, 23.2%), Mexico (644→311, 66.2%), Israel (527→383, 88.2%), Denmark (1429→574, 91.7%), India (2315→1439, 89.2%), Brazil (1060→1883, 65.4%), Japan (1068→3639, 37.2%), South Africa (19169→3813, 28.4%), Australia (994→3956, 14.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (81): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Lucia (2, 0.0%); Brunei (13, 0.0%); Benin (14, 41.6%); Botswana (14, 94.1%); Cameroon (14, 17.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 50.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Papua New Guinea (17, 3.0%); Liberia (56, 7.0%); Monaco (61, 38.9%); Nicaragua (61, 60.8%); Cuba (82, 56.8%); Ecuador (84, 31.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (94, 18.2%); Cote d'Ivoire (96, 4.0%); Djibouti (110, 0.4%); Mauritania (147, 5.8%); Mauritius (158, 11.1%); Madagascar (167, 18.4%); Yemen (176, 21.9%); Equatorial Guinea (198, 3.0%); Bhutan (239, 58.8%); Bahrain (240, 66.0%); West Bank and Gaza (260, 55.3%); Eswatini (268, 19.7%); Philippines (271, 57.3%); Mozambique (315, 86.6%); Gabon (323, 23.7%); Uganda (331, 87.7%); Luxembourg (346, 47.3%); Peru (394, 50.1%); Senegal (427, 42.8%); Uzbekistan (435, 29.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (463, 79.4%); Saudi Arabia (568, 15.4%); Venezuela (616, 68.8%); Zimbabwe (644, 43.6%); Vietnam (710, 8.1%); Lesotho (792, 90.3%); Kazakhstan (936, 9.1%); Jamaica (944, 93.5%); Namibia (944, 44.0%); Pakistan (953, 8.2%); Czechia (995, 95.6%); Guinea-Bissau (1004, 77.4%); El Salvador (1027, 43.1%); Nigeria (1073, 43.2%); Morocco (1085, 96.2%); South Sudan (1135, 65.0%); Guatemala (1150, 45.2%); Maldives (1169, 40.4%); Guyana (1199, 94.2%); Dominican Republic (1271, 64.4%); Iraq (1504, 96.9%); United Arab Emirates (1697, 58.2%); Rwanda (1730, 61.9%); Bolivia (1832, 73.9%); Azerbaijan (2196, 18.7%); Gambia (2201, 54.5%); Montenegro (2270, 96.1%); Tajikistan (2271, 58.0%); Kuwait (2469, 47.1%); Haiti (2878, 54.1%); Argentina (3267, 98.5%); Bangladesh (3717, 78.5%); Sudan (3824, 84.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (4966, 85.4%); Qatar (14013, 9.2%); Malawi (16374, 51.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): VI (14, 5.1%); MP (117, 87.7%); MN (344, 89.3%); AR (410, 81.3%); NC (548, 82.7%); MA (941, 27.6%); ND (1708, 97.9%); SC (4201, 97.7%); TX (5762, 45.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.6%); SK (321, 43.0%)

The 24-hour COVID-19 test turnaround rate in Toronto is down to 10%, despite our tests being restricted to those who are either very likely to be positive, or who have to be very sure that they aren't. The positivity rate is up to 3%, fewer than 30% of positive cases are being contacted within 24 hours of results being available, and the city has temporarily given up on tracking statistics on contact tracing.

The known number of active cases has dropped from 2,373 to 2,307, so either cases are actually decreasing, or the proportion of cases that are going undetected is increasing. People are still dying - now for the ninth consecutive day, which only tells us that numbers weren't going down quickly a couple of weeks ago.

Across the province, there were new cases in three of seven northern districts, 60% more cases than yesterday in the east, 5% more in the central east, 18 instead of 5 new cases in the southwest, and a drop from 90 to 76 cases in the central west.

School cases in Toronto are up to 148 in 113 schools now, 159 in 86 in Ottawa, 541 in 379 across the province.

There are four active cases currently reported in our neighbourhood, with the last transmission taking place on September 30th: a man in his 40s who contracted it via an unknown route, another two in their 30s and 40s confirmed to be community transmission, and a woman in her 50s through close contact.

Today's chart is the weekly choropleth showing where this week's sporadic cases have been reported. It's looking more randomly mottled than in past weeks. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-10-06

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Spain (263HI→263HI), Alabama (400HI→400HI), U.S. (495HI→495HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), California (786HI→786HI), New York (1012HI→1012HI), France (4→4), U.K. (11→11), Sweden (18→18), Romania (23→23), Malta (27→27), Toronto (26→27), Austria (36→36), Poland (65→65), Canada (67→67), Iran (71→71), Italy (85→85), Ontario (87→87), Germany (131→131), Malaysia (151→151), Indonesia (158→158), Norway (164→164), Turkey (209→209), Thailand (2918→2918), China (31272→31272)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Better: Spain, France, U.K., Sweden, Romania, Malta, Toronto, Austria, Poland, Canada, Iran, Italy, Ontario, Germany, Malaysia, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (62→14, 4.6%), Singapore (139→105, 1.4%), Israel (new→527, 91.4%), Mexico (15449→644, 71.0%), South Korea (new→836, 25.3%), Australia (736→994, 14.8%), Brazil (new→1060, 64.0%), Japan (1226→1068, 36.9%), Denmark (854→1429, 95.1%), India (8626→2315, 90.3%), South Africa (new→19169, 28.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Lucia (3, 0.0%); Benin (14, 41.6%); Botswana (14, 94.1%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 50.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 3.3%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 99.3%); Papua New Guinea (14, 2.6%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 3.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mauritius (49, 7.9%); Djibouti (50, 0.3%); Vietnam (79, 8.1%); Ecuador (81, 29.3%); Mauritania (85, 5.7%); Egypt (98, 1.2%); Cameroon (104, 17.7%); Yemen (107, 21.7%); Cuba (112, 57.7%); Eswatini (147, 20.2%); Liberia (162, 7.8%); Bhutan (166, 60.0%); Luxembourg (180, 45.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (186, 4.5%); Gabon (214, 23.7%); Zambia (220, 20.1%); Monaco (233, 45.3%); West Bank and Gaza (264, 54.9%); Philippines (269, 55.1%); Senegal (295, 43.9%); Bahrain (297, 70.5%); Madagascar (398, 20.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (518, 79.3%); Saudi Arabia (541, 15.6%); Lesotho (623, 90.3%); Zimbabwe (625, 43.6%); Kuwait (649, 46.8%); Venezuela (664, 70.6%); Namibia (795, 47.2%); Mozambique (878, 91.0%); Guinea (909, 33.9%); Trinidad and Tobago (938, 84.9%); Jamaica (939, 93.4%); Gambia (979, 54.0%); Guatemala (1073, 45.0%); Azerbaijan (1166, 18.5%); Pakistan (1178, 8.2%); Morocco (1183, 93.7%); El Salvador (1216, 43.4%); Maldives (1277, 39.9%); Kazakhstan (1309, 9.3%); Haiti (1346, 54.4%); South Sudan (1407, 65.0%); Czechia (1431, 90.2%); Rwanda (1522, 62.2%); Peru (1662, 53.1%); Costa Rica (1752, 96.9%); Uzbekistan (1763, 29.6%); Dominican Republic (2123, 65.3%); Tajikistan (2278, 58.2%); Bolivia (2383, 74.4%); Malawi (2548, 51.6%); Iraq (2803, 97.1%); Argentina (3021, 96.3%); United Arab Emirates (3031, 58.7%); Bangladesh (3712, 78.7%); Qatar (4432, 9.1%); Nigeria (7916, 44.6%); Sudan (8246, 85.1%); Guinea-Bissau (23437, 77.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): VI (15, 6.4%); MP (117, 87.7%); MN (417, 90.5%); AR (482, 92.0%); NC (653, 77.4%); ND (2369, 97.2%); MI (2634, 98.3%); PR (4341, 98.7%); ME (16513, 81.8%); GA (46819, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 6.8%); NS (14, 0.6%); SK (402, 43.3%)

We had 217 new confirmed cases in Toronto, 2 deaths, and 219 recoveries, so our active case count dropped for the first time since September 1st, to 2,373. I took my father to a medical clinic today, my son to get his eyeglasses replaced, and then went to buy groceries for dinner. The only people I saw who was not fully masked while I were my father whenever the mask fell off his nose (apologies to his doctor), and two out of maybe 100 pedestrians on the Danforth. People are being careful, because our numbers are high and uncertain, and testing is no longer generally available. I suspect our numbers will look good this week, partly because of inadequate testing, partly because of people actually being careful, but there will be a lot of transmission at Thanksgiving dinners, and that deaths and hospital bed counts will eventually indicate the continuing severity of the situation.

However, an "essential visitor" at my aunts' nursing home ward tested positive for COVID-19 today, which under current protocols means that everyone in the ward needs to be retested.

We could avoid this by having everyone stay home for four weeks. Instead, we have a premier who was planning on getting a group of ten people together for Thanksgiving at his house this weekend, until reporters (and his wife) pointed out that this was against current government recommendations. Premier Ford is also responding to our critical lack of testing capacity by shipping our test samples to a California lab for processing. I was wondering how it was that California had excess testing capacity; a CTV News article pointed out that the lab in question (Quest Diagnostics) likely had excess capacity due to government contracts that had been cancelled in Florida due to an "egregious failure" in their ability to process tests in a timely manner.

Overall active numbers in Ontario were down slightly on the strength of Toronto figures, with 548 new cases, 7 deaths and 546 recoveries bringing us to 5,469 active cases. Ottawa numbers are down in the last few days, while numbers are up in much of the Central West, including Hamilton, Halton, Niagara and Waterloo.

Today's chart lists countries whose active cases have changed by more than 3,000 in the past week. It's inspirational to see countries like India, Brazil and Peru making significant progress against the pandemic.

Stay safe.

2020-10-05

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (130HI→115HI), Spain (227HI→263HI), Alabama (302HI→400HI), U.S. (497HI→495HI), Brazil (523HI→527HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), California (793HI→786HI), New York (1012HI→1012HI), South Africa (1640HI→1593HI), France (4→4), U.K. (13→11), Sweden (18→18), Romania (24→23), Toronto (26→26), Malta (31→27), Austria (38→36), Poland (68→65), Canada (71→67), Iran (73→71), Italy (89→85), Ontario (85→87), Germany (138→131), Malaysia (181→151), Indonesia (157→158), Norway (170→164), Turkey (213→209), South Korea (1017→1017), Thailand (2111→2918), China (31269→31272)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Malta, Canada, Italy, Germany, Malaysia, Norway, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Austria, Poland, Iran

The same: Romania

Better: France, Sweden, Toronto, Ontario, Indonesia

Much better: Spain, Alabama

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (250→62, 4.3%), Singapore (146→139, 1.5%), Australia (687→736, 14.6%), Denmark (1784→854, 95.7%), Japan (new→1226, 36.5%), India (19267→8626, 91.8%), Mexico (new→15449, 70.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Lucia (4, 0.0%); Benin (14, 41.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (14, 5.1%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea (14, 35.0%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 99.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Papua New Guinea (16, 2.6%); Seychelles (25, 3.4%); Equatorial Guinea (27, 3.3%); Chad (29, 14.0%); Egypt (33, 1.0%); Mauritius (35, 7.1%); Liberia (57, 6.5%); Djibouti (58, 0.4%); Eswatini (78, 20.5%); Mauritania (89, 6.2%); Ecuador (95, 28.5%); Vietnam (99, 8.4%); Cameroon (104, 17.7%); Yemen (104, 22.4%); Monaco (136, 50.2%); Ghana (138, 7.4%); Malawi (138, 51.3%); Switzerland (141, 45.3%); West Bank and Gaza (197, 55.2%); Bahrain (232, 70.6%); Philippines (241, 52.5%); Senegal (271, 44.7%); Andorra (313, 79.8%); Peru (320, 52.4%); Cuba (393, 63.8%); Haiti (485, 54.2%); Sri Lanka (497, 13.8%); Botswana (516, 94.1%); Jamaica (556, 93.4%); Kuwait (559, 46.5%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (568, 80.6%); Gambia (594, 54.0%); Azerbaijan (623, 18.5%); Saudi Arabia (625, 15.9%); Gabon (643, 25.9%); Luxembourg (667, 51.7%); Madagascar (689, 23.1%); Guyana (711, 94.8%); Mozambique (751, 95.4%); Venezuela (876, 72.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (1061, 86.6%); El Salvador (1214, 43.6%); Namibia (1251, 47.1%); Rwanda (1340, 62.5%); Kazakhstan (1385, 9.4%); South Sudan (1569, 65.5%); Dominican Republic (1920, 65.4%); Maldives (2073, 40.8%); Bolivia (2332, 75.0%); Qatar (2441, 9.1%); Tajikistan (2642, 58.5%); Uzbekistan (3305, 29.9%); Bangladesh (3742, 78.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (6141, 7.5%); Zimbabwe (6836, 45.6%); Panama (8324, 82.4%); Guatemala (11413, 45.9%); Sudan (61732, 85.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): VI (115, 14.2%); NC (725, 72.9%); AR (845, 84.2%); MP (1436, 87.7%); PR (1775, 97.0%); MI (2057, 95.3%); OK (6583, 95.5%); GA (10147, 98.7%); AZ (33176, 85.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 4.1%); PE (14, 10.0%); AB (2105, 49.9%)

Israel looks like its massive third wave might be peaking: it has had between 66,000 and 73,000 active cases daily for the past nine days, without a clear upward or downward trend.

California's active numbers are climbing extremely slowly, but still climbing at about 1% per week.

The U.K.'s active case curve looks terrifyingly vertical, but is apparently the result of missing cases being added to the database, which is only mildly alarming.

Malta appears to be flattening its curve the wrong way, slowing the descent from its fourth wave, and might soon start a fifth one.

In Ontario, there were 48 new cases of COVID-19 in schools, for a new total of 449, spread across 335 schools. Of those, 13 were in Toronto, which now has 116 cases in 94 schools. We had 615 new cases, 5 deaths and 541 recoveries, raising our active case count to 5,474. Premier Ford, when asked to comment on desperate pleas by medical and public health officials to close down cities to stop transmission, replied "Show me the evidence, hard, hard evidence". I have often thought that Toronto would be better off not being a part of Ontario (typical Torontonian point-of-view), but I never thought I would see the day when the provincial government was deliberately killing Torontonians with policy.

In Toronto, 279 new cases, 3 deaths, and 218 recoveries pushed our active cases up to 2,390. The 1,916 new cases we've had in the past seven days are 82% more than the previous seven days. On average, there is one new case each day now for every 8 confirmed, active cases. Either transmission is completely out of control because our contact tracing system has failed (27.7% of recent cases were contacted within 24 hours), and our R number is approaching 2 (14 days of infectiousness times 1/8 transmissions per day = 14/8 = 1.75), or our failed testing system (12% of tests completed within 24 hours) has left a large, number of unreported active cases causing the transmission. Or both.

Today's chart graphs active cases in all six of these regions.

Stay safe.

2020-10-04

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (119HI→130HI), Spain (227HI→227HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (499HI→497HI), Brazil (506HI→523HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), California (793HI→793HI), New York (1334HI→1012HI), South Africa (1640HI→1640HI), France (5→4), U.K. (21→13), Sweden (18→18), Romania (25→24), Toronto (27→26), Austria (30→38), Poland (71→68), Canada (72→71), Iran (74→73), Ontario (86→85), Mexico (86→88), Italy (95→89), Germany (140→138), Indonesia (157→157), Norway (167→170), Malaysia (198→181), Turkey (212→213), Japan (433→439), South Korea (997→1017), Thailand (2144→2111)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Italy, Malaysia

Worse: Poland, Germany

The same: France, Romania, Toronto, Canada, Iran, Ontario

Better: Spain, Alabama, Sweden, Mexico, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey

Much better: Israel, Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (104→146, 1.5%), Malta (96→213, 65.1%), New Zealand (60→250, 4.4%), Australia (399→687, 14.7%), China (554→787, 0.6%), Denmark (11206→1784, 96.4%), India (21203→19267, 92.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (1, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (5, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (14, 5.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 99.3%); Oman (14, 39.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Papua New Guinea (16, 2.6%); Egypt (22, 1.0%); Equatorial Guinea (27, 3.3%); Chad (30, 13.5%); Mongolia (35, 5.5%); Eswatini (71, 21.3%); Vietnam (74, 8.4%); Yemen (90, 22.8%); Cameroon (104, 17.7%); Bhutan (119, 62.4%); Andorra (123, 79.8%); Djibouti (126, 0.4%); Malawi (130, 51.2%); Mauritania (133, 6.6%); Madagascar (140, 22.5%); Switzerland (173, 45.4%); Niger (229, 3.1%); Senegal (242, 45.4%); Monaco (274, 51.8%); Zimbabwe (283, 46.6%); Somalia (285, 42.7%); Gabon (305, 25.9%); Bahrain (308, 75.1%); West Bank and Gaza (337, 62.3%); Ghana (392, 7.8%); Peru (398, 55.5%); Haiti (446, 55.3%); Botswana (516, 94.1%); Venezuela (561, 72.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (562, 86.1%); Saudi Arabia (570, 16.1%); Kuwait (578, 46.8%); Azerbaijan (595, 18.6%); Gambia (648, 54.7%); Jamaica (772, 95.6%); Sri Lanka (957, 13.5%); South Sudan (965, 64.5%); El Salvador (1216, 44.0%); Rwanda (1302, 62.6%); Namibia (1314, 46.1%); Dominican Republic (1508, 65.9%); Kazakhstan (1856, 9.4%); Qatar (1967, 9.1%); Guyana (2022, 96.6%); Nigeria (2023, 44.9%); Luxembourg (2403, 51.7%); Mozambique (2671, 94.6%); Afghanistan (3245, 35.7%); Bolivia (3294, 75.4%); Guinea (3437, 35.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3484, 86.0%); Panama (3710, 82.4%); Tajikistan (3821, 58.6%); Bangladesh (4157, 79.3%); Cuba (5043, 63.6%); Uzbekistan (9180, 30.4%); Colombia (11134, 37.7%); Maldives (17313, 40.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): MP (155, 83.0%); VI (381, 14.2%); PR (1114, 96.3%); MI (1253, 91.5%); OK (1275, 94.6%); AZ (3394, 84.8%); RI (4339, 97.4%); TN (4377, 34.9%); GA (10677, 98.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 4.1%); PE (14, 10.0%); AB (2105, 49.9%)

There were 189 new cases reported today in Toronto, or 1 for about every 12 of the 2,332 active cases. Miraculously, this was the first day since September 1st didn't increase. Instead, with three tragic deaths and 186 recoveries, we stayed even.

Ontario also saw a relatively small increase in new cases by recent standards, with 566 new cases, 7 deaths, and 534 recoveries, raising us to 5,405 active cases.

Today's chart updates one from September 10th, showing the 14 countries that have hit the 100,000 active case mark, and their daily proportion of the collective total. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-10-03

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (122HI→119HI), Spain (227HI→227HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (496HI→499HI), California (725HI→793HI), New York (1334HI→1334HI), France (6→5), Sweden (18→18), U.K. (21→21), Romania (23→25), Toronto (29→27), Poland (66→71), Canada (76→72), Iran (75→74), Mexico (85→86), Ontario (91→86), Italy (102→95), Germany (143→140), Indonesia (153→157), Norway (160→167), Malaysia (239→198), Japan (421→433), Thailand (2333→2144)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Canada, Ontario, Italy, Malaysia

Worse: Israel, Toronto, Germany

The same: France, Iran

Better: Spain, Alabama, Sweden, U.K., Poland, Mexico, Indonesia, Norway

Much better: Romania

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (72→60, 4.4%), Malta (105→96, 62.1%), Singapore (111→104, 1.6%), Louisiana (191→156, 19.8%), Australia (450→399, 14.7%), China (666→554, 0.6%), Austria (3576→1611, 89.8%), South Africa (2278→3191, 28.7%), Brazil (1478→6705, 67.3%), Turkey (9095→6717, 43.6%), Denmark (new→11206, 97.9%), India (2695→21203, 92.9%), South Korea (385→29863, 26.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (2, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (6, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 2.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Egypt (19, 1.1%); Equatorial Guinea (23, 3.3%); Mongolia (35, 5.5%); Chad (36, 14.0%); Niger (69, 2.7%); Bhutan (72, 63.5%); Eswatini (73, 21.7%); Comoros (74, 10.6%); Madagascar (76, 21.9%); Eritrea (83, 20.3%); Cameroon (104, 17.7%); Yemen (107, 24.8%); Monaco (110, 50.2%); Andorra (123, 79.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (126, 3.1%); Malawi (132, 51.4%); Mauritania (134, 6.8%); Switzerland (198, 45.4%); Senegal (220, 46.3%); Ghana (252, 7.1%); Zimbabwe (260, 45.8%); West Bank and Gaza (281, 64.0%); Somalia (285, 42.7%); Sri Lanka (300, 13.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (306, 86.0%); Bahrain (307, 76.9%); Gabon (319, 25.9%); Namibia (338, 45.6%); Colombia (347, 36.1%); Vietnam (370, 8.4%); Peru (372, 56.7%); Haiti (383, 54.7%); Botswana (516, 94.1%); Azerbaijan (518, 19.0%); Venezuela (598, 73.3%); El Salvador (611, 44.6%); Saudi Arabia (626, 16.5%); Gambia (684, 55.2%); Georgia (900, 95.1%); Kuwait (1021, 47.8%); Rwanda (1171, 63.0%); Afghanistan (1277, 35.7%); Dominican Republic (1295, 66.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1336, 86.0%); Burkina Faso (1522, 98.1%); Mozambique (1619, 96.7%); Maldives (1636, 41.5%); Panama (1986, 81.3%); Kazakhstan (2000, 9.5%); Qatar (2108, 9.2%); United Arab Emirates (2158, 59.5%); Tajikistan (2658, 58.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (2730, 5.2%); Bolivia (2931, 75.7%); Nicaragua (4525, 99.3%); Bangladesh (4752, 79.6%); Nigeria (8931, 44.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): VI (193, 16.9%); TN (761, 33.1%); PA (883, 80.9%); OK (955, 94.9%); AZ (2730, 84.8%); PR (4019, 97.9%); GA (12301, 98.8%); MI (21764, 91.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 8.2%); PE (14, 10.0%); AB (3872, 49.9%)

The nine cases reported in Ontario's North West District (all in the Northwestern Health Unit) surpassed the previous record of six set on June 21. This brings that health unit to about 1 case in every 5,000 people, which is about where Toronto was two weeks ago.

The North East district has seen a slow, steady, worsening, but its overall numbers are low enough due to low population density that it would only take one outbreak to catch up. East, Central East, and Toronto increased by 40-60% over the past week; the South West and Central West did not see a significant increase.

Across the country, B.C.'s active numbers have come down to 1,330 from 2,009 two weeks ago, but have been creeping up this week. Alberta has spent a month hovering around 1,500. Saskatchewan might have crested its fifth (!) wave, and has had about 140 cases for a week. Manitoba is climbing quickly and may overtake Alberta and B.C. in a week or two. Ontario might be slowing down a little but is still worsening; Quebec is pure exponential and about to overtake Ontario for the third time. The Atlantic bubble has single-digit nonzero numbers in each province, and there are no cases in the far north.

Today's chart shows active cases in Canada's provinces and territories on a semilog scale.

When I went to the farmer's market today, in the hardest-hit part of Toronto, the mood was quiet and tense. Merchants reported that sales were about half of normal; everyone I saw indoors was wearing a mask properly.

Stay safe.

2020-10-02

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (110HI→122HI), Spain (221HI→227HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (496HI→496HI), California (725HI→725HI), New York (1334HI→1334HI), France (7→6), Sweden (19→18), U.K. (22→21), Romania (26→23), Toronto (32→29), Denmark (30→30), Poland (73→66), Iran (76→75), Canada (82→76), Mexico (85→85), Ontario (99→91), Italy (107→102), Germany (148→143), Indonesia (149→153), Norway (174→160), Malaysia (283→239), Thailand (2463→2333)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Poland, Canada, Ontario, Italy, Germany, Norway, Malaysia

Worse: Romania, Toronto

The same: France, Sweden, U.K., Iran

Better: Spain, Alabama, Denmark, Mexico, Indonesia

Much better: Israel

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (72, no new data, 4.6%), Malta (105, no new data, 65.1%), Singapore (111, no new data, 1.7%), Louisiana (141→191, 19.8%), South Korea (385, no new data, 26.3%), Australia (450, no new data, 15.3%), China (666, no new data, 0.6%), Japan (681, no new data, 38.2%), Brazil (1478, no new data, 67.3%), South Africa (2278, no new data, 28.6%), India (2507→2695, 92.6%), Austria (3576, no new data, 90.1%), Turkey (9095, no new data, 43.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (3, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 13.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (14, 7.5%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.5%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Egypt (21, 1.5%); Liechtenstein (21, 8.7%); Equatorial Guinea (23, 3.3%); Chad (33, 12.8%); Mongolia (35, 5.5%); Niger (37, 2.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (46, 3.1%); Monaco (62, 48.6%); Comoros (74, 10.6%); Madagascar (82, 21.8%); Eritrea (83, 20.3%); Eswatini (104, 24.1%); Malawi (127, 52.2%); Colombia (166, 33.9%); West Bank and Gaza (167, 63.3%); Yemen (173, 26.7%); Uruguay (181, 67.3%); Bhutan (189, 67.1%); Mauritania (196, 7.5%); Ghana (208, 6.5%); Senegal (245, 49.1%); Zimbabwe (259, 45.9%); Peru (266, 54.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (275, 5.1%); Somalia (285, 42.7%); Haiti (312, 55.7%); El Salvador (320, 44.7%); Bahrain (332, 79.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (336, 87.9%); Switzerland (400, 45.0%); Azerbaijan (414, 19.0%); Maldives (432, 40.9%); Montenegro (450, 92.5%); Saudi Arabia (463, 16.8%); Guinea (536, 35.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (561, 85.2%); Gabon (636, 27.1%); Uzbekistan (688, 30.2%); Venezuela (725, 74.8%); Guyana (758, 94.9%); Georgia (813, 90.7%); United Arab Emirates (832, 59.5%); Gambia (840, 55.7%); Zambia (841, 22.7%); Sri Lanka (1028, 14.4%); Dominican Republic (1075, 66.7%); Afghanistan (1267, 35.6%); Tajikistan (1451, 58.9%); Rwanda (1836, 63.5%); Bolivia (2009, 75.8%); Kuwait (2088, 49.7%); Burkina Faso (2148, 96.4%); Kazakhstan (2380, 9.5%); Qatar (2407, 9.2%); Morocco (2428, 98.3%); Nicaragua (4525, 99.3%); Bangladesh (4648, 79.7%); Uganda (4843, 96.8%); Central African Republic (22219, 63.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): VI (38, 16.9%); TN (386, 33.7%); OK (860, 95.4%); IA (992, 82.0%); DC (1945, 71.4%); AZ (3112, 84.5%); GA (23091, 99.0%); VA (490884, 99.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (27, 6.8%); SK (1682, 45.8%)

Toronto's death count jumped by 80 cases today, but 78 of them were substantially delayed reports recently added.

Twelve new school cases brought us to 103 cases in 84 schools today.

Toronto's Medical Officer of Health asked provincial officials for a month-long suspension of all indoor dining and physical activity, and a ban on leaving one's home except for work, school, exercise and grocery shopping.

There were two more cases in the last two days for a total of six recent cases in our local neighbourhood.

The city's COVID-19 monitoring dashboard now places us in its most severe status (red), based on the following indicators individually being red: new cases averaging 236/day (target 30), new hospitalisations averaging 6.6/day (target 6), Rt = 1.2 (target <1), 14% of test results available within 24 hours (target 60%) and 32% within 48 hours (80%), 26.5% of newly confirmed cases then reached within 24 hours (90%).

Given that we no longer have a functioning testing system, it would be prudent for everyone who does not want to see COVID-19 transmitted to stay home.

The province responded by further limiting indoor group sizes, and now also requires masks in most workplace settings. It has also scrapped the idea of 10-person social circles, and says that everyone should where masks when near people with whom they do not live. Concern is rising that the healthcare system will be overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases very soon.

Ontario set a record with 732 new cases confirmed today. That's about one new case for every seven active cases.

Today's chart plots school cases in Toronto and Ontario together with correspondingly scaled active cases in the general population. The near-linear growth of a large number of active cases here indicates that what is being observed is only the small proportion that manage to get have their tests processed, and the actual number is probably growing at a faster, exponential rate.

Stay safe.

2020-10-01

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (102HI→110HI), Spain (216HI→221HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (504HI→496HI), California (720HI→725HI), New York (1402HI→1334HI), France (8→7), Sweden (18→19), U.K. (24→22), Romania (27→26), Denmark (30→30), Toronto (35→32), Poland (79→73), Iran (77→76), Canada (85→82), Mexico (85→85), Ontario (103→99), Italy (114→107), Germany (153→148), Indonesia (145→149), Norway (170→174), Malaysia (354→283), Thailand (2609→2463)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Poland, Ontario, Italy, Germany, Malaysia

Worse: U.K., Toronto, Canada

The same: France, Romania, Iran

Better: Israel, Spain, Alabama, Sweden, Denmark, Mexico, Indonesia, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (174→72, 4.6%), Malta (91→105, 65.1%), Singapore (139→111, 1.7%), Louisiana (150→141, 18.0%), South Korea (401→385, 26.3%), Australia (281→450, 15.3%), China (836→666, 0.6%), Japan (new→681, 38.2%), Brazil (712→1478, 67.3%), South Africa (1280→2278, 28.6%), India (3434→2507, 92.4%), Austria (new→3576, 90.1%), Turkey (new→9095, 43.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (3, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 13.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (14, 7.5%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.5%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Egypt (21, 1.5%); Liechtenstein (21, 8.7%); Equatorial Guinea (23, 3.3%); Chad (33, 12.8%); Mongolia (35, 5.5%); Niger (37, 2.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (46, 3.1%); Monaco (62, 48.6%); Comoros (74, 10.6%); Madagascar (82, 21.8%); Eritrea (83, 20.3%); Eswatini (104, 24.1%); Malawi (127, 52.2%); Colombia (166, 33.9%); West Bank and Gaza (167, 63.3%); Yemen (173, 26.7%); Uruguay (181, 67.3%); Bhutan (189, 67.1%); Mauritania (196, 7.5%); Ghana (208, 6.5%); Senegal (245, 49.1%); Zimbabwe (259, 45.9%); Peru (266, 54.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (275, 5.1%); Somalia (285, 42.7%); Haiti (312, 55.7%); El Salvador (320, 44.7%); Bahrain (332, 79.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (336, 87.9%); Switzerland (400, 45.0%); Azerbaijan (414, 19.0%); Maldives (432, 40.9%); Montenegro (450, 92.5%); Saudi Arabia (463, 16.8%); Guinea (536, 35.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (561, 85.2%); Gabon (636, 27.1%); Uzbekistan (688, 30.2%); Venezuela (725, 74.8%); Guyana (758, 94.9%); Georgia (813, 90.7%); United Arab Emirates (832, 59.5%); Gambia (840, 55.7%); Zambia (841, 22.7%); Sri Lanka (1028, 14.4%); Dominican Republic (1075, 66.7%); Afghanistan (1267, 35.6%); Tajikistan (1451, 58.9%); Rwanda (1836, 63.5%); Bolivia (2009, 75.8%); Kuwait (2088, 49.7%); Burkina Faso (2148, 96.4%); Kazakhstan (2380, 9.5%); Qatar (2407, 9.2%); Morocco (2428, 98.3%); Nicaragua (4525, 99.3%); Bangladesh (4648, 79.7%); Uganda (4843, 96.8%); Central African Republic (22219, 63.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): VI (36, 16.6%); MS (113, 25.9%); VT (162, 15.7%); MP (249, 92.2%); NC (434, 77.3%); TN (458, 34.7%); IA (802, 81.9%); MN (1055, 92.0%); DC (1431, 71.0%); ND (1576, 97.8%); GU (2283, 69.6%); MA (2791, 25.1%); AR (3450, 88.1%); AZ (7356, 85.1%); SC (8565, 97.8%); PA (9675, 80.3%); VA (13257, 99.2%); GA (15560, 99.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); SK (14, 44.9%); NB (64, 8.2%); BC (492, 64.2%)

We had our fourth fatality in three days in Toronto. 280 new cases pushes us up to 2,146 active cases.

There are declared outbreaks in three schools. The province has instructed schools to stop testing students who have mild symptoms, and just to send them home to isolate until they are asymptomatic. Given that as many as 2.5% of our tests are eventually (after ~3 days) coming back positive now, this "maybe it's just a cold" approach seems negligent. If it relieves pressure on our testing system and gets it working within desired parameters again though, that would be helpful, even if it comes at the terrible cost of significant further spread of COVID-19 throughout the 1/8 of our population that is in school, and thence to everyone else.

Today's chart shows how the disease is progressing per capita by age. People in their 20s, who took the lead in early August, have widened the gap significantly over people in their 30s

The provincial government is however warning that we might need to lock all the way back down again in the most affected areas (Toronto, York, Ottawa). It hasn't said when yet, but every day that passes makes the situation 7% worse (doubling every 10 days).

We had 515 new cases in Ontario today, and now have 4,975 active confirmed cases. The 39,646 tests processed today reversed a five-day decreasing trend, but we are up to 82,473 tests waiting to be processed. I think it's reasonable to assume that the situation is actually about three days (23%) worse than the tests processed so far indicate.

Stay safe.

2020-09-30

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (93HI→102HI), Spain (208HI→216HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (482HI→504HI), California (704HI→720HI), New York (1402HI→1402HI), France (8→8), Sweden (20→18), U.K. (24→24), Romania (30→27), Denmark (30→30), Austria (35→33), Toronto (44→35), Iran (77→77), Poland (86→79), Canada (91→85), Ontario (112→103), Italy (117→114), Germany (161→153), Norway (162→170), Turkey (194→201), Malaysia (325→354), Japan (479→446), Thailand (2715→2609)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Toronto, Poland, Canada, Ontario, Germany

Worse: Sweden, Romania, Austria, Italy

Better: Spain, Alabama, France, U.K., Denmark, Iran, Norway, Turkey, Malaysia

Much better: Israel

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (168→91, 66.0%), Singapore (new→139, 1.7%), Louisiana (new→150, 16.9%), New Zealand (216→174, 5.7%), Australia (428→281, 15.2%), South Korea (246→401, 26.3%), Brazil (2509→712, 65.6%), China (new→836, 0.6%), South Africa (572→1280, 28.5%), India (2460→3434, 92.4%), Mexico (new→6412, 70.4%), Indonesia (new→9385, 99.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (4, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (8, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Eritrea (14, 24.6%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.5%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mongolia (19, 5.5%); Liechtenstein (21, 8.7%); Comoros (23, 7.7%); Egypt (25, 2.3%); Barbados (37, 7.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (46, 3.1%); Niger (53, 2.7%); Suriname (60, 7.7%); Ecuador (104, 42.9%); Madagascar (129, 24.2%); West Bank and Gaza (144, 66.9%); Monaco (157, 56.7%); Colombia (159, 35.5%); Zambia (164, 20.9%); Equatorial Guinea (166, 7.1%); Yemen (180, 27.8%); Uruguay (190, 68.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (192, 5.1%); Bhutan (201, 70.6%); Zimbabwe (219, 45.8%); Sri Lanka (248, 14.5%); Haiti (250, 57.9%); Philippines (258, 63.4%); Senegal (266, 50.6%); Eswatini (276, 28.6%); El Salvador (324, 44.9%); Maldives (345, 41.4%); Trinidad and Tobago (402, 89.3%); Saudi Arabia (427, 17.0%); Bahrain (443, 82.7%); Montenegro (481, 92.2%); Croatia (526, 45.3%); Azerbaijan (547, 19.5%); Mauritania (551, 8.0%); Malawi (607, 64.0%); Kuwait (620, 49.8%); Uzbekistan (626, 30.2%); Gabon (636, 27.1%); Venezuela (690, 75.8%); Lesotho (708, 88.1%); Guinea (809, 35.0%); United Arab Emirates (842, 59.6%); Dominican Republic (845, 66.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (981, 86.0%); Gambia (1281, 56.8%); Georgia (1338, 86.5%); Tajikistan (1457, 59.2%); Rwanda (1914, 64.0%); Qatar (1948, 9.2%); Peru (2238, 60.9%); Afghanistan (2248, 35.9%); Mali (2497, 78.1%); Morocco (2601, 93.6%); Bolivia (2624, 76.4%); Kazakhstan (2865, 9.6%); Bangladesh (3268, 79.8%); Nicaragua (4525, 99.3%); Somalia (5075, 47.1%); Sudan (8391, 85.1%); Central African Republic (22219, 63.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): TX (14, 44.7%); VI (41, 14.9%); HI (44, 38.6%); MS (86, 23.1%); VT (150, 15.7%); NC (295, 70.4%); MN (446, 86.7%); AR (684, 85.2%); GU (690, 67.7%); MA (1228, 23.2%); SD (1568, 95.6%); ME (1625, 80.1%); IA (1907, 82.6%); DC (4842, 71.4%); SC (4967, 99.1%); ND (5115, 96.8%); TN (5382, 35.2%); GA (9915, 99.2%); MD (122711, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (64, 8.2%); BC (683, 65.4%)

India appears to have crested its first wave: they reached their peak of over a million active cases two weeks ago, and have gradually come down to 940,000.

Two more COVID-19 patients were reported to have died today in Toronto. We managed to get through all of September without losing two people in one day, and now we've lost three in two days. Hospitalizations have more than tripled in three weeks, and are up to 65 now. We are at 60% of total ICU bed capacity, and 89% of acute bed occupancy.

Test delays are worsening, and are down to 18% turnaround within 24 hours and 37% within 48 hours. Even once test results are available, only 37% are then reached within a further 24 hours. The positivity rate has climbed to 2.5%, thanks to the large number of people who are getting infected, and increased restrictions now on who is allowed to get tested.

There are 83 cases in 69 publicly funded schools now, narrowly edging out Ottawa for the first time to be the city in the province that has put COVID-19 into the most schools.

There is an increasing amount of sarcasm in the media, belatedly asking why anyone thought that it would be a good idea to open restaurants, bars and schools during a pandemic, along with some naive opposition from restaurant owners asking why they should have to close before transmission is confirmed on their premises.

There appears to have been a fourth case in our neighbourhood this afternoon, after the weekly data dump. If so, that brings the number of active cases in the neighbourhood to two, as two cases from two weeks ago have been declared resolved. There are no longer any neighbourhoods in Toronto that have been COVID-free in the last three weeks.

Today's chart is a weekly update of how many sporadic cases there were in each neighbourhood in the past week. You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-09-29

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (94HI→93HI), Spain (208HI→208HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (472HI→482HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), California (692HI→704HI), New York (1571HI→1402HI), Singapore (13674HI→12845HI), France (9→8), Sweden (27→20), U.K. (27→24), Denmark (30→30), Romania (32→30), Austria (35→35), Toronto (44→44), Iran (78→77), Mexico (85→85), Poland (91→86), Canada (95→91), Ontario (114→112), Italy (120→117), Indonesia (141→143), Germany (161→161), Turkey (190→194), Malaysia (331→325), Thailand (3335→2715), China (37800→35196)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, Poland, Canada, Malaysia

Worse: U.K., Romania, Ontario, Italy

The same: Israel, France, Iran

Better: Spain, Alabama, Denmark, Austria, Toronto, Mexico, Indonesia, Germany, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (259→168, 82.3%), Norway (204→194, 58.7%), New Zealand (113→216, 5.9%), South Korea (441→246, 26.6%), Australia (382→428, 15.9%), Japan (new→552, 37.3%), South Africa (591→572, 29.2%), India (14919→2460, 93.1%), Brazil (new→2509, 67.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (2, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (6, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (10, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.5%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Luxembourg (14, 50.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 5.5%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.2%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vietnam (14, 8.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (20, 9.6%); Egypt (32, 4.3%); Equatorial Guinea (35, 8.1%); Suriname (40, 6.6%); Mongolia (50, 7.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (51, 3.4%); Sri Lanka (94, 14.8%); Ecuador (99, 36.5%); Colombia (120, 41.4%); Eritrea (123, 24.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (152, 5.2%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); West Bank and Gaza (207, 73.4%); Uruguay (213, 68.6%); Philippines (239, 59.2%); Niger (247, 3.3%); Senegal (272, 53.8%); Maldives (285, 42.3%); Yemen (290, 30.7%); Monaco (316, 58.3%); Eswatini (335, 31.0%); Saudi Arabia (342, 17.6%); Lesotho (377, 92.7%); Bahrain (423, 86.7%); Haiti (444, 59.5%); El Salvador (454, 47.4%); Azerbaijan (575, 20.2%); Kazakhstan (598, 9.7%); Uzbekistan (644, 31.3%); Kuwait (721, 49.7%); Bahamas (755, 94.2%); Venezuela (757, 78.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (760, 95.7%); Malawi (763, 64.9%); Gambia (803, 57.7%); Rwanda (904, 64.8%); Peru (947, 64.6%); Dominican Republic (1149, 68.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1152, 88.5%); Uganda (1337, 96.3%); Gabon (1365, 28.3%); Montenegro (1452, 96.2%); Nigeria (1488, 44.9%); Tajikistan (1529, 59.5%); Zambia (1573, 22.7%); Qatar (1631, 9.4%); Croatia (1848, 42.6%); Bolivia (1903, 76.8%); Ghana (1983, 7.9%); Sudan (2071, 84.3%); Bangladesh (2098, 80.4%); Central African Republic (2303, 62.5%); Belize (3170, 81.0%); Cuba (3249, 67.6%); Albania (6981, 99.4%); Zimbabwe (7878, 51.7%); Kyrgyzstan (8378, 20.6%); South Sudan (22012, 66.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): HI (42, 37.7%); MS (80, 20.8%); VI (89, 18.6%); VT (277, 16.0%); IA (288, 81.9%); NC (297, 65.9%); MP (761, 95.1%); ME (774, 79.4%); AR (939, 84.6%); MI (1099, 96.0%); TN (2476, 34.9%); DE (4086, 99.1%); GA (6115, 99.2%); MO (9830, 98.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.2%); NB (64, 8.2%); BC (518, 64.4%)

A news story today mentioned the incongruity that local casinos were reopening, even as strip clubs stayed closed. this doesn't seem a terrible idea to me. Very few places have better surveillance than casinos, so if you have to have to have people leaving their houses, then having them do so to go play slot machines while wearing masks sounds like the safest choice.

We saw our first death in Toronto in two weeks. According to Public Health Ontario, if you contract a fatal case of COVID-19, regardless of your age, your median survival duration is two weeks, and you will almost certainly be dead within 60 days. In the past week, we've had 1,427 new cases or an average of 204 a day. The daily average going back in previous weeks was 131, 77, 48, 33, 27, 15, 15, 14, .... This tells us that even if we don't eradicate COVID-19 from the city, if we can just get it down to 15~30 new cases a day, as we were in those halcyon midsummer days, very few people will die. (Those numbers would also make it possible for our testing and tracing system to start working again.) In the meantime, we should be prepared for a new, rising wave of death that mirrors that pattern of increasing cases. Please try to avoid death - yours and your friends' and family's - by avoiding contact with people until the numbers go down again.

Today's chart shows the rapid but sub-exponential growth of cases across the province. Sub-exponential is good - it means that people are paying attention and beginning to change their behaviour.

Stay safe.

2020-09-28

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→90HI), Spain (190HI→202HI), Alabama (405HI→302HI), U.S. (472HI→470HI), California (684HI→684HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), New York (1571HI→1571HI), France (10→9), Sweden (27→27), U.K. (34→27), Denmark (37→30), Austria (43→33), Romania (41→33), Toronto (54→51), Iran (80→79), Mexico (90→88), Poland (136→94), Canada (106→100), Italy (124→122), Ontario (131→125), Indonesia (135→137), Germany (174→170), Turkey (183→184), Malaysia (413→357)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Alabama, U.K., Denmark, Austria, Romania, Poland, Canada, Ontario, Germany, Malaysia

Worse: Toronto, Mexico, Italy

The same: France, Iran

Better: Spain, Sweden, Indonesia, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (279→168, 6.7%), Singapore (198→209, 2.1%), Norway (new→225, 54.7%), Australia (186→291, 17.0%), South Korea (214→317, 28.6%), China (350→326, 0.6%), Malta (537→337, 89.1%), New Zealand (14→385, 6.4%), Japan (531→456, 37.6%), South Africa (1496→824, 29.6%), Brazil (3427→1785, 70.7%), India (9808→4650, 94.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (4, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (8, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (12, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 77.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritania (14, 8.4%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 4.0%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Taiwan (14, 8.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 9.6%); Vietnam (22, 7.1%); Equatorial Guinea (33, 8.1%); Eritrea (35, 24.6%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Egypt (45, 7.4%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (64, 5.8%); Croatia (90, 48.1%); Chad (113, 22.2%); Sri Lanka (118, 15.8%); Mongolia (126, 9.1%); Niger (136, 3.5%); Colombia (145, 47.6%); Cameroon (159, 21.0%); Peru (229, 62.3%); Yemen (239, 31.6%); Suriname (271, 10.7%); Saudi Arabia (276, 18.6%); Senegal (304, 57.4%); Kazakhstan (377, 9.7%); Cuba (417, 66.0%); Maldives (458, 45.3%); Bahrain (471, 90.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (480, 6.9%); Malawi (494, 67.5%); Gambia (529, 58.2%); Madagascar (574, 30.5%); Liberia (603, 7.6%); Gabon (632, 28.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (656, 89.4%); Eswatini (719, 31.6%); West Bank and Gaza (725, 87.5%); Uruguay (735, 77.6%); Guinea-Bissau (796, 77.5%); Uzbekistan (828, 31.9%); Namibia (838, 46.5%); Azerbaijan (930, 20.7%); Uganda (938, 95.9%); Nigeria (941, 44.4%); Dominican Republic (1263, 70.3%); Venezuela (1300, 80.3%); Panama (1313, 82.2%); Mozambique (1452, 93.7%); Bangladesh (1698, 81.0%); Rwanda (2062, 65.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (2092, 97.0%); El Salvador (2265, 50.3%); Tajikistan (2378, 60.4%); Qatar (2409, 9.4%); Bolivia (2634, 77.7%); Kuwait (3568, 53.0%); Central African Republic (6003, 63.3%); South Sudan (6212, 65.3%); Ghana (14019, 8.0%); Ethiopia (21457, 85.9%); Syria (25589, 90.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): HI (40, 35.7%); TX (188, 44.0%); IA (403, 86.2%); MI (838, 89.3%); RI (855, 94.9%); GU (1549, 70.5%); ME (3295, 81.4%); OH (3939, 70.8%); PA (5276, 80.6%); CT (9504, 95.2%); GA (17360, 99.4%); SC (57801, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); SK (261, 41.7%); BC (401, 68.4%); AB (721, 47.9%)

Malaysia is building up to a second wave; after three quiet months, the last three weeks have seen its active case count rise from 154 to 851, with this week being the first since May in which there were three triple-digit days of new cases. Malaysia is not particularly unusual in having a second wave, but is noteworthy mainly because of how few active cases they fell down to (~60) between waves.

There were 170 new cases reported in Toronto today, bringing us to 1,575 active cases. Five more cases were admitted to hospital, for a total of 49.

In Ontario, we are nearing the point where our active case count in this second wave matches the first wave, meaning that all the effort that we put into locking down earlier in the year will have been completely wasted. According to CMAJ stats, we are at 6,111/6,548; the province's official numbers (extended back by my own estimates) put us at 4,196/5,675. That includes the 491 new cases today and two needless deaths. We have now had 400+ new cases on 8 of the last 10 days, which last happened in April. The government asks us to be patient, leave bars by 11:00 P.M., and not to worry if we were in any of the growing list of restaurants and bars that have had to close due to COVID-19 outbreaks, because public health authorities will contact people individually as needed.

Today's chart is a new one. It shows how the ten countries with the most active cases of COVID-19 (plus the province of Ontario) have had their active numbers grow and shrink, scaled for comparison so that their peak to date is at the top of the graph. For example, the U.S. is still looking for its first peak, so it just has a wavily increasing line; the U.K. had a little peak in May, a little dip in July, and has soared since; Ontario never quite cleared up its first wave, and is almost back to that first peak.

Stay safe.

2020-09-27

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→90HI), Spain (190HI→202HI), Alabama (405HI→302HI), U.S. (472HI→470HI), California (684HI→684HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), New York (1571HI→1571HI), France (10→9), Sweden (27→27), U.K. (34→27), Denmark (37→30), Austria (43→33), Romania (41→33), Toronto (54→51), Iran (80→79), Mexico (90→88), Poland (136→94), Canada (106→100), Italy (124→122), Ontario (131→125), Indonesia (135→137), Germany (174→170), Turkey (183→184), Malaysia (413→357)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Alabama, U.K., Denmark, Austria, Romania, Poland, Canada, Ontario, Germany, Malaysia

Worse: Toronto, Mexico, Italy

The same: France, Iran

Better: Spain, Sweden, Indonesia, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (279→168, 6.7%), Singapore (198→209, 2.1%), Norway (new→225, 54.7%), Australia (186→291, 17.0%), South Korea (214→317, 28.6%), China (350→326, 0.6%), Malta (537→337, 89.1%), New Zealand (14→385, 6.4%), Japan (531→456, 37.6%), South Africa (1496→824, 29.6%), Brazil (3427→1785, 70.7%), India (9808→4650, 94.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (4, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (8, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (12, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 77.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritania (14, 8.4%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 4.0%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Taiwan (14, 8.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 9.6%); Vietnam (22, 7.1%); Equatorial Guinea (33, 8.1%); Eritrea (35, 24.6%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Egypt (45, 7.4%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (64, 5.8%); Croatia (90, 48.1%); Chad (113, 22.2%); Sri Lanka (118, 15.8%); Mongolia (126, 9.1%); Niger (136, 3.5%); Colombia (145, 47.6%); Cameroon (159, 21.0%); Peru (229, 62.3%); Yemen (239, 31.6%); Suriname (271, 10.7%); Saudi Arabia (276, 18.6%); Senegal (304, 57.4%); Kazakhstan (377, 9.7%); Cuba (417, 66.0%); Maldives (458, 45.3%); Bahrain (471, 90.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (480, 6.9%); Malawi (494, 67.5%); Gambia (529, 58.2%); Madagascar (574, 30.5%); Liberia (603, 7.6%); Gabon (632, 28.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (656, 89.4%); Eswatini (719, 31.6%); West Bank and Gaza (725, 87.5%); Uruguay (735, 77.6%); Guinea-Bissau (796, 77.5%); Uzbekistan (828, 31.9%); Namibia (838, 46.5%); Azerbaijan (930, 20.7%); Uganda (938, 95.9%); Nigeria (941, 44.4%); Dominican Republic (1263, 70.3%); Venezuela (1300, 80.3%); Panama (1313, 82.2%); Mozambique (1452, 93.7%); Bangladesh (1698, 81.0%); Rwanda (2062, 65.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (2092, 97.0%); El Salvador (2265, 50.3%); Tajikistan (2378, 60.4%); Qatar (2409, 9.4%); Bolivia (2634, 77.7%); Kuwait (3568, 53.0%); Central African Republic (6003, 63.3%); South Sudan (6212, 65.3%); Ghana (14019, 8.0%); Ethiopia (21457, 85.9%); Syria (25589, 90.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): HI (40, 35.7%); TX (188, 44.0%); IA (403, 86.2%); MI (838, 89.3%); RI (855, 94.9%); GU (1549, 70.5%); ME (3295, 81.4%); OH (3939, 70.8%); PA (5276, 80.6%); CT (9504, 95.2%); GA (17360, 99.4%); SC (57801, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); SK (261, 41.7%); BC (401, 68.4%); AB (721, 47.9%)

Malaysia is building up to a second wave; after three quiet months, the last three weeks have seen its active case count rise from 154 to 851, with this week being the first since May in which there were three triple-digit days of new cases. Malaysia is not particularly unusual in having a second wave, but is noteworthy mainly because of how few active cases they fell down to (~60) between waves.

There were 170 new cases reported in Toronto today, bringing us to 1,575 active cases. Five more cases were admitted to hospital, for a total of 49.

In Ontario, we are nearing the point where our active case count in this second wave matches the first wave, meaning that all the effort that we put into locking down earlier in the year will have been completely wasted. According to CMAJ stats, we are at 6,111/6,548; the province's official numbers (extended back by my own estimates) put us at 4,196/5,675. That includes the 491 new cases today and two needless deaths. We have now had 400+ new cases on 8 of the last 10 days, which last happened in April. The government asks us to be patient, leave bars by 11:00 P.M., and not to worry if we were in any of the growing list of restaurants and bars that have had to close due to COVID-19 outbreaks, because public health authorities will contact people individually as needed.

Today's chart is a new one. It shows how the ten countries with the most active cases of COVID-19 (plus the province of Ontario) have had their active numbers grow and shrink, scaled for comparison so that their peak to date is at the top of the graph. For example, the U.S. is still looking for its first peak, so it just has a wavily increasing line; the U.K. had a little peak in May, a little dip in July, and has soared since; Ontario never quite cleared up its first wave, and is almost back to that first peak.

Stay safe.

2020-09-26

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→108HI), Spain (190HI→190HI), Alabama (405HI→405HI), U.S. (472HI→472HI), California (759HI→684HI), New York (1571HI→1571HI), France (10→10), Sweden (37→27), U.K. (37→34), Denmark (37→37), Romania (41→41), Austria (43→43), Toronto (55→54), Iran (81→80), Mexico (92→90), Canada (111→106), Italy (127→124), Ontario (132→131), Indonesia (135→135), Poland (136→136), Norway (164→165), Germany (169→174), Turkey (183→183), Malaysia (459→413)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, Canada

Worse: U.K., Mexico, Italy

The same: Toronto, Iran, Ontario

Better: Israel, Spain, France, Denmark, Romania, Austria, Indonesia, Poland, Norway, Germany, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (584→14, 6.6%), Australia (149→186, 17.3%), Louisiana (288→198, 21.8%), Singapore (114→198, 2.1%), South Korea (227→214, 28.4%), Thailand (313→279, 7.0%), China (332→350, 0.6%), Japan (1816→531, 37.7%), Malta (new→537, 91.4%), South Africa (7579→1496, 30.6%), Brazil (798→3427, 70.3%), India (1544→9808, 95.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (5, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (9, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (13, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Somalia (14, 42.5%); Taiwan (14, 8.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Vietnam (19, 7.1%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Eritrea (42, 28.3%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Egypt (57, 9.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (60, 6.1%); Croatia (64, 44.2%); Barbados (94, 15.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (111, 7.2%); Chad (117, 22.0%); Mongolia (126, 9.1%); Cameroon (139, 20.4%); Uruguay (149, 69.3%); Yemen (233, 32.2%); Colombia (236, 50.6%); Saudi Arabia (244, 19.1%); Senegal (272, 59.4%); Mauritania (288, 8.2%); Gambia (348, 58.8%); Sri Lanka (351, 18.4%); Chile (419, 15.4%); Bhutan (424, 75.3%); Mozambique (429, 92.2%); West Bank and Gaza (457, 89.6%); Switzerland (458, 50.2%); Namibia (483, 48.8%); Malawi (491, 67.7%); Uzbekistan (552, 32.1%); Kazakhstan (597, 9.9%); Bahrain (599, 92.8%); Liberia (603, 7.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (619, 89.7%); Gabon (632, 28.3%); El Salvador (724, 50.3%); Panama (732, 82.0%); Madagascar (885, 31.0%); Nigeria (930, 44.3%); Maldives (1070, 47.1%); Azerbaijan (1077, 20.9%); Uganda (1271, 93.0%); Zimbabwe (1569, 52.6%); Peru (1752, 75.0%); Bangladesh (1816, 81.7%); Dominican Republic (1877, 71.1%); Kuwait (1970, 52.3%); Eswatini (2096, 32.5%); Venezuela (2109, 81.6%); Equatorial Guinea (2183, 16.1%); Tajikistan (2234, 60.5%); Burkina Faso (2316, 98.8%); Rwanda (2515, 65.5%); Syria (2580, 89.7%); Bolivia (2705, 78.2%); Ethiopia (3297, 85.4%); Haiti (4208, 64.6%); Guinea-Bissau (11742, 77.5%); Ghana (14019, 8.0%); Kyrgyzstan (23433, 20.9%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): TX (193, 44.7%); IA (319, 84.4%); VT (439, 18.0%); MP (503, 94.1%); PA (905, 77.1%); TN (956, 35.4%); ME (981, 81.5%); OH (996, 70.3%); RI (1591, 95.9%); MI (1673, 89.3%); MA (5653, 23.9%); GU (6152, 70.5%); GA (321177, 99.7%); VA (1193322, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); SK (261, 41.7%); BC (401, 68.4%); AB (721, 47.9%)

There were 146 new cases in Toronto today, bringing us to 1,511 active cases. We have 44 hospitalized cases, up from 27 a week ago. There were no school cases reported today because of the weekend, but the TDSB did announce that the first two classes have been asked to stay home in isolation due to a school outbreak. I can't imagine how parents with kids attending school in person must be feeling at this point.

Toronto has started temporarily closing individual clubs and restaurants whose noncompliance with COVID-19 public health requirements has resulted in identifiable outbreaks. Small steps toward a safer city.

There were 435 new cases in Ontario, the third consecutive 400+ day, something that last happened on May 23-25. Numbers have been increasing 50% weekly for the last three weeks. In the past week, Ottawa has seen the most new cases per capita, followed by Peel and Toronto, all more than 30 per 100K; Waterloo, York, Halton, Eastern Ontario, Renfrew and Durham also had more than 10 per 100K. At the beginning of the month, it was only Ottawa and Peel that were over 10 per 100K.

Today's chart shows the distribution of recent cases per capita across the province. You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-09-25

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→108HI), Spain (190HI→190HI), Alabama (405HI→405HI), U.S. (470HI→472HI), California (759HI→759HI), New York (1615HI→1571HI), France (10→10), Malta (34→34), Denmark (37→37), Sweden (37→37), U.K. (42→37), Romania (41→41), Austria (43→43), Toronto (62→55), Iran (84→81), Mexico (100→92), Canada (115→111), Italy (127→127), Ontario (132→132), Indonesia (138→135), Poland (136→136), Norway (163→164), Germany (171→169), Turkey (181→183), Malaysia (470→459)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Toronto, Mexico, Canada

Worse: Iran, Indonesia, Germany

Better: Israel, Spain, France, Malta, Denmark, Sweden, Romania, Austria, Italy, Ontario, Poland, Norway, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (135→114, 2.0%), Australia (148→149, 17.2%), South Korea (239→227, 30.3%), Louisiana (210→288, 21.8%), Thailand (751→313, 6.9%), China (2435→332, 0.6%), New Zealand (221→584, 6.5%), Brazil (484→798, 69.4%), India (1350→1544, 95.0%), Japan (1576→1816, 39.9%), South Africa (new→7579, 31.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (84): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (6, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (10, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 9.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Togo (14, 95.4%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Vietnam (24, 8.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (39, 6.2%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Eritrea (42, 28.3%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Croatia (54, 43.3%); Egypt (71, 11.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (82, 7.0%); Suriname (91, 10.7%); Barbados (94, 15.4%); Chad (114, 21.5%); Cabo Verde (154, 49.8%); Mauritania (161, 8.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (193, 4.3%); Senegal (219, 61.0%); Saudi Arabia (233, 19.8%); Yemen (242, 33.3%); Chile (274, 14.8%); Cyprus (298, 52.7%); Ghana (305, 8.0%); Liberia (306, 7.6%); Mozambique (322, 89.1%); Bhutan (326, 76.5%); West Bank and Gaza (327, 88.6%); Uruguay (349, 76.9%); Maldives (353, 47.2%); Malawi (433, 67.6%); Haiti (446, 64.0%); Gambia (453, 60.0%); Sri Lanka (535, 18.8%); Panama (562, 81.9%); Gabon (582, 28.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (599, 91.4%); Peru (630, 68.0%); Morocco (636, 93.6%); Monaco (667, 61.5%); Madagascar (675, 31.1%); Cameroon (702, 20.4%); Kazakhstan (781, 10.2%); Namibia (786, 48.6%); Belize (846, 81.7%); Kuwait (859, 52.4%); Zimbabwe (927, 51.9%); Kyrgyzstan (950, 20.7%); Uzbekistan (962, 33.1%); Bahrain (1020, 94.8%); Colombia (1338, 61.3%); El Salvador (1463, 51.3%); Bangladesh (1896, 82.2%); Dominican Republic (1919, 71.5%); Argentina (2018, 94.9%); Bolivia (2128, 78.6%); Equatorial Guinea (2183, 16.1%); Tajikistan (2389, 60.7%); Syria (2528, 90.4%); Moldova (4490, 95.0%); Azerbaijan (7616, 21.4%); United Arab Emirates (7948, 60.4%); Guinea-Bissau (11742, 77.5%); Guinea (15998, 33.7%); Ethiopia (17147, 85.8%); North Macedonia (24325, 52.9%); Rwanda (60701, 67.1%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): VT (302, 17.3%); AR (303, 88.1%); OH (513, 70.4%); MP (523, 97.1%); GU (556, 63.3%); TN (605, 35.5%); TX (716, 43.9%); IA (756, 94.6%); MA (763, 22.5%); NH (1029, 15.2%); IN (2328, 87.9%); CT (4184, 95.2%); GA (82704, 99.9%); RI (356560, 96.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (84, 68.4%); SK (134, 38.3%)

The second wave got real in Ontario, as Premier Ford announced the closure of strip clubs (presumably because they weren't compatible with social distancing or contact tracing), and an earlier closing time for bars and restaurants (last call at 23:00, closing at midnight). We had one more death and 409 new cases, leaving us with 2,837 cumulative deaths, and 3,899 currently active cases including 236 cases in 198 schools.

In Quebec, the government called for people to stop socializing at home for the next 28 days, but confirmed that restaurants and bars would remain open during that time.

In Toronto, we saw 236 new cases (the 11th worst day in our history), bringing us to 1,460 active cases. 25 of our 140 neighbourhoods now have a recent sporadic case rate greater than 1 per 1,000 population (including York University Heights with 2.3/K), one week ago it was 8 neighbourhoods. No new cases in our neighbourhood since Saturday.

Today's chart is the original confirmed case ratio vs. rate of change phase diagram, with the latest data.

Stay safe.

2020-09-24

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→108HI), Spain (189HI→190HI), Alabama (405HI→405HI), U.S. (466HI→470HI), California (670HI→759HI), South Africa (1398HI→1403HI), New York (1615HI→1615HI), France (13→10), Denmark (41→37), Sweden (37→37), Romania (42→41), U.K. (42→42), Austria (43→43), Toronto (67→62), Iran (87→84), Canada (119→115), Italy (130→127), Ontario (138→132), Poland (142→136), Indonesia (142→138), Norway (177→163), Germany (170→171), Turkey (182→181), Malaysia (518→470)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Denmark, Toronto, Canada, Ontario, Poland, Indonesia, Norway

Worse: Iran, Italy

The same: Romania, Turkey

Better: Israel, Spain, Sweden, U.K., Austria, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (95→135, 2.2%), Australia (162→148, 17.8%), Louisiana (236→210, 20.3%), New Zealand (249→221, 7.0%), South Korea (215→239, 30.8%), Brazil (966→484, 67.9%), Thailand (2384→751, 7.2%), Mexico (702→1242, 62.8%), India (1513→1350, 95.1%), Japan (5095→1576, 40.2%), China (new→2435, 0.6%), Malta (new→3795, 94.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (7, 0.0%); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (11, 0.0%); Burundi (14, 10.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 4.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Vietnam (24, 8.8%); Suriname (33, 11.6%); Comoros (46, 9.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (49, 7.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (49, 4.0%); Croatia (61, 45.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (64, 6.8%); Egypt (79, 13.9%); Djibouti (94, 0.3%); Monaco (100, 53.4%); Chad (113, 21.2%); Mauritania (154, 8.6%); Cuba (196, 67.1%); Senegal (225, 62.8%); Yemen (227, 34.1%); Saudi Arabia (242, 20.6%); Sri Lanka (250, 19.2%); Peru (265, 64.5%); Eritrea (268, 39.9%); Chile (280, 14.9%); Philippines (281, 69.9%); Cyprus (299, 50.9%); Bhutan (326, 76.5%); Botswana (332, 76.3%); Maldives (405, 47.6%); Ecuador (431, 50.9%); Haiti (438, 63.4%); Belize (439, 81.7%); Cabo Verde (440, 51.1%); Gambia (490, 61.0%); Panama (498, 83.2%); Colombia (526, 57.4%); Morocco (535, 91.7%); El Salvador (546, 51.0%); Eswatini (555, 33.6%); West Bank and Gaza (556, 89.8%); Kuwait (560, 52.9%); Malawi (570, 68.7%); Gabon (582, 28.9%); Kazakhstan (618, 10.2%); Liberia (624, 7.8%); Namibia (745, 48.0%); Uruguay (746, 78.5%); Kyrgyzstan (748, 20.5%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (827, 95.5%); Bahrain (828, 95.5%); Argentina (897, 93.4%); Uzbekistan (1013, 33.3%); Zimbabwe (1152, 52.2%); Bolivia (1284, 78.5%); Azerbaijan (1345, 21.1%); Syria (1724, 90.8%); Dominican Republic (1744, 72.1%); Bangladesh (1883, 82.8%); Madagascar (1999, 31.8%); United Arab Emirates (2059, 60.1%); Mali (2087, 76.3%); Venezuela (2709, 82.7%); Papua New Guinea (3407, 63.7%); Ethiopia (4822, 85.9%); Tajikistan (5137, 61.1%); Mozambique (7640, 91.5%); Somalia (13513, 42.5%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): MS (78, 29.9%); NC (186, 57.1%); VT (246, 17.8%); AR (269, 85.8%); NH (276, 15.2%); TN (441, 34.5%); MA (484, 21.3%); OH (551, 70.4%); IN (716, 86.7%); VI (1228, 21.4%); IA (1239, 95.5%); PA (4324, 75.9%); AK (4705, 96.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (120, 69.6%)

Malta has doubled its total death toll in two weeks, now 28, due to a spread of the disease throughout nursing homes similar to what we saw in Toronto in April.

Ontario has started publishing its school COVID-19 data in CSV format, with one record per affected school per day; it means that if you don't check their website daily, you can find older results. The database data appears to be missing two cases that appear in counts in the summary page.

With the new numbers, we are now at 208 cases in 178 schools in Ontario doubling every 2.8 school days, and 31 cases in 28 Toronto schools doubling every 2.3 days. Toronto had been in third place behind Brampton until yesterday, but now is solidly in second place.

Ontario reported 409 new confirmed cases today, bringing our active case count to 3,774. For the first time in four days, only one person died needlessly, rather than three. Our recent case fatality rate hovers around 1%, suggesting at least that we are detecting most contagious cases, even if we aren't doing much to stop them.

Toronto saw another 151 new cases today, extending our triple digit run to a full week for the first time since early June.

Normally on a Thursday I would run a map showing how long it had been since the last case in each Toronto neighbourhood. I won't this week, because it would be almost monochromatic. If you live in Thorncliffe Park (August 23) or Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills (July 23), give yourself a pat on the back, and breathe freely when outdoors in your neighbourhood.

Instead, I'll run the one that shows active cases in each Canadian province and territory, as reported by CMAJ.

Government officials at all levels are asking Canadians to cut back on seeing each other privately, while encouraging them to socialize in restaurants and bars. Canadians, while generally good at obeying the law, seem less respectful than most of nonsensical official advice.

Stay safe.

2020-09-23

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (137HI→108HI), Spain (189HI→189HI), Alabama (395HI→405HI), U.S. (487HI→466HI), California (680HI→670HI), New York (1615HI→1615HI), France (13→13), Malta (29→35), Sweden (38→37), Denmark (41→41), Romania (42→42), U.K. (46→42), Austria (43→43), Toronto (69→67), Iran (90→87), Canada (121→119), Italy (132→130), Ontario (139→138), Indonesia (143→142), Poland (151→142), Germany (169→170), Norway (185→177), Turkey (182→182), China (32204→32900)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, U.K., Poland, Norway

Worse: Toronto, Iran, Canada, Italy

The same: Sweden, Ontario, Indonesia

Better: Spain, France, Denmark, Romania, Austria, Germany, Turkey

Much better: Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (81→95, 2.3%), Australia (283→162, 19.0%), South Korea (231→215, 31.7%), Malaysia (new→229, 25.6%), Louisiana (new→236, 19.1%), New Zealand (140→249, 6.7%), Mexico (628→702, 59.9%), Brazil (1244→966, 72.9%), India (1378→1513, 95.9%), Thailand (1185→2384, 7.6%), South Africa (new→3802, 31.3%), Japan (1370→5095, 40.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (8, 0.0%); Brunei (10, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burundi (14, 9.2%); Cabo Verde (14, 53.3%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam, Madagascar (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 4.2%); Tajikistan (14, 61.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (22, 11.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (30, 4.0%); Comoros (36, 9.6%); Mauritania (77, 8.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (83, 7.3%); Egypt (88, 15.7%); Djibouti (94, 0.3%); Vietnam (105, 15.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (116, 8.8%); Monaco (119, 53.4%); Eswatini (154, 32.8%); Belize (170, 75.5%); Cyprus (175, 44.0%); Sri Lanka (177, 19.2%); Zambia (217, 19.2%); Senegal (231, 64.2%); Saudi Arabia (254, 21.5%); Ecuador (257, 43.8%); Eritrea (268, 39.9%); El Salvador (287, 51.1%); Philippines (289, 67.5%); Yemen (315, 34.8%); Liberia (316, 7.8%); Croatia (319, 68.4%); Bhutan (332, 77.6%); Botswana (332, 76.3%); Chile (347, 15.7%); Cuba (391, 70.6%); Maldives (395, 48.5%); Argentina (496, 90.5%); Kuwait (499, 53.6%); Papua New Guinea (499, 64.0%); Panama (515, 84.9%); Gambia (559, 61.6%); Morocco (612, 91.6%); Haiti (740, 65.3%); Uzbekistan (867, 33.3%); Sudan (884, 85.4%); Switzerland (1101, 45.4%); Kyrgyzstan (1128, 20.6%); Syria (1136, 90.8%); Gabon (1153, 29.7%); Bolivia (1306, 79.0%); Venezuela (1310, 82.7%); Azerbaijan (1311, 21.4%); Rwanda (1323, 66.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1410, 94.7%); Zimbabwe (1435, 52.7%); Mali (1462, 76.2%); Bahrain (1736, 97.5%); United Arab Emirates (1799, 59.4%); Bangladesh (1911, 83.3%); Iraq (3207, 98.6%); Malawi (3207, 71.9%); Namibia (3581, 48.4%); Ethiopia (3675, 86.0%); Kazakhstan (6931, 10.7%); Moldova (7902, 91.7%); Dominican Republic (19234, 72.7%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): MS (66, 26.8%); NH (141, 14.3%); NC (160, 52.0%); VT (185, 17.6%); AR (233, 82.4%); MT (363, 86.0%); IN (685, 86.9%); OH (699, 71.6%); HI (1338, 81.3%); IA (3144, 95.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (120, 69.6%)

The City of Toronto has redone their COVID-19 page, and it's worth a look if you like pandemic data (and who doesn't?).

https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/covid-19-latest-city-of-toronto-news/covid-19-status-of-cases-in-toronto/

They've kept most of the old data (although I currently don't see where they've moved the current hospital occupancy counts, not %, to), and added some interesting new figures. We are for instance at 89% occupancy in acute care hospital beds, which is probably a good thing - every time I've been with someone who needed hospital care, beds were always far over capacity. We are dropping day by day on our ability to process tests in a timely manner, and are down to 22% within 24 hours with a target of 60%. It's not just the nervous uninfected who are using up all those tests either - our positive rate is up to 1.9%, which as with most statistics is a figure we last saw back at the beginning of June.

Today being Wednesday, Toronto has also updated its extract of iPHIS case information. It describes the third case recently reported in our neighbourhood as a man in his 30s who was exposed to COVID-19 on Tuesday of last week in a healthcare setting (such as a medical or dental office, but not a hospital), and tested positive on Saturday.

Today's chart is a weekly one that shows how many new sporadic cases there were in each Toronto neighbourhood. The northwestern neighbourhoods have caught up with the waterfront, and neighbourhoods adjacent to the waterfront are starting to see high numbers of cases. You can interact with it here:

Nine more cases were reported in seven Toronto schools, bringing us up to 25 cases in 23 schools. Across the province, it's 180 and 153. Those numbers are doubling every two school days, which if sustained would see every school infected two weeks from now. I'm trying to remember whether we're trying to make the students sick, or the staff, or was it their extended families?

Stay safe.

2020-09-22

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (116HI→137HI), Spain (189HI→189HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), U.S. (496HI→487HI), California (691HI→680HI), Louisiana (485HI→758HI), South Africa (1468HI→1468HI), New York (1610HI→1615HI), France (14→13), Malta (28→29), Denmark (41→41), Austria (42→43), U.K. (49→46), Toronto (76→69), Iran (94→90), Canada (123→121), Italy (135→132), Ontario (151→139), Indonesia (144→143), Poland (154→151), Germany (170→169), Turkey (181→182), Norway (170→185), Malaysia (737→627), China (32204→32204)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Toronto, Iran, Ontario

Worse: U.K., Canada, Italy, Poland

The same: France, Indonesia, Germany

Better: Spain, Malta, Denmark, Austria, Turkey, Norway

Much better: Israel

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (54, no new data, 45.9%), Singapore (81, no new data, 2.3%), New Zealand (140, no new data, 6.6%), South Korea (231, no new data, 33.2%), Australia (283, no new data, 20.6%), Mexico (628, no new data, 57.3%), Thailand (1185, no new data, 7.5%), Brazil (1244, no new data, 71.4%), Japan (1370, no new data, 40.5%), India (4058→1378, 95.9%), Sweden (3870, no new data, 86.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (9, 0.0%); Brunei (11, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burundi (14, 9.2%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 16.3%); Eritrea (14, 42.8%); Fiji (14, 32.7%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (17, 11.6%); Zambia (25, 9.6%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (34, 4.0%); Mauritania (94, 8.9%); Egypt (100, 17.8%); Botswana (112, 76.3%); Cyprus (134, 41.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (138, 9.4%); Eswatini (139, 33.0%); Sri Lanka (141, 19.6%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); Papua New Guinea (188, 61.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (206, 8.9%); Monaco (207, 56.7%); Belize (211, 79.5%); El Salvador (244, 52.9%); Jordan (249, 78.0%); Senegal (265, 67.4%); Saudi Arabia (274, 22.6%); Philippines (325, 66.1%); Bhutan (338, 78.8%); Vietnam (364, 17.5%); Kuwait (389, 53.4%); Ecuador (390, 40.9%); Venezuela (408, 83.1%); Argentina (419, 88.3%); Cuba (524, 66.3%); Maldives (534, 48.5%); Panama (542, 87.0%); Yemen (566, 35.7%); Chile (584, 16.9%); Kazakhstan (622, 10.5%); Liberia (624, 7.8%); Croatia (643, 72.2%); Haiti (651, 65.1%); Sudan (759, 84.9%); Ghana (839, 8.0%); Syria (913, 90.8%); Morocco (968, 89.2%); Rwanda (983, 66.4%); Gabon (1005, 29.7%); Azerbaijan (1271, 21.6%); Bolivia (1358, 79.5%); Zimbabwe (1465, 53.7%); Iraq (1477, 96.9%); Mali (1816, 75.9%); Gambia (1849, 64.2%); Kyrgyzstan (2013, 21.0%); Bangladesh (2053, 83.9%); Ethiopia (2060, 86.5%); Malawi (3168, 72.2%); Dominican Republic (3590, 72.7%); Qatar (5212, 9.3%); Uruguay (6141, 81.5%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Moldova (60153, 90.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): MS (68, 24.6%); NC (159, 49.2%); AR (340, 80.0%); VT (389, 18.9%); NH (587, 15.8%); HI (689, 81.0%); MI (801, 94.6%); OH (1013, 73.3%); DE (10322, 99.2%); WA (12079, 99.6%); IA (38675, 96.1%); TN (56700, 37.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (158, 74.1%)

Active cases in British Columbia took a steep drop today from 2,009 to 1,488, as the government declared a record 617 cases recovered in one day. The other three western provinces continued to see steady increases in active cases, and Atlantic and Northern cases remained in single digits per province and territory. Quebec now has 3,362 active cases, currently doubling every 16 days.

In Ontario, we now have 3,578 active cases. As our second wave picks up speed, we passed a landmark on September 18th, when the number of active cases (2,881) exceeded the number of fatalities (then 2,826, now 2,832). Today, we saw 51 new cases in schools, bringing the school case count up to 141. So far, only two of the 116 schools reporting cases have closed. We saw 478 new cases altogether province-wide, making today the 16th worst day this year, and the worst day in 96 days.

Today's chart shows the start of our school COVID-19 statistics. The most recent jump in Ontario is alarming, but could just be a random blip - it feels a little early for these curves to be shifting from linear to more clearly exponential growth. You can interact with the chart here.

Media and government officials are gradually sounding more concerned. Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, was widely quoted today saying "Canada is at a crossroads", and "We don't want it to go up a giant ski hill", while still calling for more individual action that is clearly not coming, rather than the government controls that worked the first time. I have trouble visualising the crossroads at the foot of a ski hill; the analogy that comes to my mind is that we've skidded our nation off an icy road and into a frozen lake, had a lockdown winch us barely back above the surface, and then had the tow truck driver fall asleep at the wheel, leaving us sinking back into the water while being told that we should take individual action to save the car.

In Toronto, we had 153 new cases today, a fifth straight 100+ day, which last happened in early June. On the bright side, both our sons are more or less safely enrolled in the TDSB's online virtual school programme that started only two weeks late today, and their first day of classes went smoothly. One teacher, who to be fair was not assigned his class until last night, took until 45 minutes before the afternoon session to launch his virtual classroom, but when he did, it was fine. News reports said that opening virtual classrooms continues to be limited by the school board's ability to recruit the right teachers, but that they are nearing the end of the process.

Stay safe.

2020-09-21

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→116HI), Spain (193HI→189HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (496HI→496HI), California (678HI→691HI), South Africa (1436HI→1468HI), New York (1610HI→1610HI), France (15→14), Malta (28→28), Denmark (41→41), Austria (43→42), U.K. (53→49), Toronto (86→76), Iran (98→94), Canada (137→123), Italy (139→135), Indonesia (149→144), Ontario (159→151), Poland (165→154), Germany (171→170), Norway (164→170), Turkey (182→181), Malaysia (798→737), China (32198→32204)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, U.K., Toronto, Iran, Canada, Italy, Indonesia, Ontario, Poland

The same: France, Austria, Germany, Turkey

Better: Israel, Malta, Denmark, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (55→54, 45.9%), Singapore (68→81, 2.3%), New Zealand (186→140, 6.6%), South Korea (227→231, 33.2%), Australia (331→283, 20.6%), Mexico (2816→628, 57.3%), Thailand (266→1185, 7.5%), Brazil (new→1244, 71.4%), Japan (298→1370, 40.5%), Sweden (new→3870, 86.8%), India (new→4058, 98.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (9, 0.0%); Brunei (11, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burundi (14, 9.2%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 16.3%); Eritrea (14, 42.8%); Fiji (14, 32.7%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (17, 11.6%); Zambia (25, 9.6%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (34, 4.0%); Mauritania (94, 8.9%); Egypt (100, 17.8%); Botswana (112, 76.3%); Cyprus (134, 41.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (138, 9.4%); Eswatini (139, 33.0%); Sri Lanka (141, 19.6%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); Papua New Guinea (188, 61.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (206, 8.9%); Monaco (207, 56.7%); Belize (211, 79.5%); El Salvador (244, 52.9%); Jordan (249, 78.0%); Senegal (265, 67.4%); Saudi Arabia (274, 22.6%); Philippines (325, 66.1%); Bhutan (338, 78.8%); Vietnam (364, 17.5%); Kuwait (389, 53.4%); Ecuador (390, 40.9%); Venezuela (408, 83.1%); Argentina (419, 88.3%); Cuba (524, 66.3%); Maldives (534, 48.5%); Panama (542, 87.0%); Yemen (566, 35.7%); Chile (584, 16.9%); Kazakhstan (622, 10.5%); Liberia (624, 7.8%); Croatia (643, 72.2%); Haiti (651, 65.1%); Sudan (759, 84.9%); Ghana (839, 8.0%); Syria (913, 90.8%); Morocco (968, 89.2%); Rwanda (983, 66.4%); Gabon (1005, 29.7%); Azerbaijan (1271, 21.6%); Bolivia (1358, 79.5%); Zimbabwe (1465, 53.7%); Iraq (1477, 96.9%); Mali (1816, 75.9%); Gambia (1849, 64.2%); Kyrgyzstan (2013, 21.0%); Bangladesh (2053, 83.9%); Ethiopia (2060, 86.5%); Malawi (3168, 72.2%); Dominican Republic (3590, 72.7%); Qatar (5212, 9.3%); Uruguay (6141, 81.5%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Moldova (60153, 90.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): MS (59, 22.8%); NC (156, 45.7%); VT (233, 18.5%); HI (773, 81.4%); MI (826, 92.7%); DE (2311, 98.4%); OH (3669, 76.4%); IL (5659, 99.1%); SC (7857, 99.4%); MD (15427, 99.6%); WA (24484, 99.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (10, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 5.0%); AB (1956, 46.7%)

In Toronto, hospitalizations are up dramatically, from 24 to 33 over the weekend, back to last month's level. Two more schools have COVID-19 cases, now ten. Active cases are up 151 to 1,152 and confirmed cumulative cases 175 to 17,712, the worse single-day increases since early June. In our own neighbourhood, there was a third case over the weekend.

There are no plans to take any further measures to reduce transmission. Bars, restaurants, strip clubs, and sports venues all remain open; unenforced, ineffective restrictions on private gatherings continue to be flouted as the numbers indicate.

Ontario's fourth day above 350 new cases reaches a mark we last set in May, and brings us up to 3,299 active cases.

Today's chart updates one from two weeks ago, showing how active cases in each continent continue on their recent trends: North America starting its third wave, Europe searching for the crest of its second, Asia and South America wondering if they've finally reached the top of their first wave, and Africa mired in a plateau not that much lower than its peak.

Stay safe.

2020-09-20

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (112HI→108HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Brazil (425HI→422HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (498HI→496HI), California (681HI→678HI), South Africa (1456HI→1436HI), New York (1649HI→1610HI), France (16→15), Malta (25→28), Denmark (48→41), Austria (45→43), Sweden (51→51), India (51→52), U.K. (55→53), Toronto (93→86), Iran (104→98), Canada (144→137), Italy (142→139), Indonesia (149→149), Ontario (170→159), Norway (162→164), Poland (179→165), Germany (173→171), Turkey (182→182), Malaysia (809→798), China (32195→32198)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Denmark, Toronto, Iran, Canada, Ontario, Poland

Worse: Austria, U.K., Italy, Germany

The same: France

Better: Spain, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey

Much better: Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (54→55, 44.8%), Singapore (80→68, 2.7%), New Zealand (91→186, 7.6%), South Korea (161→227, 35.5%), Thailand (new→266, 7.4%), Japan (602→298, 41.2%), Australia (463→331, 22.2%), Mexico (611→2816, 65.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (11, 0.0%); Brunei (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 9.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (21, 32.7%); Suriname (29, 22.6%); Zambia (30, 16.8%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Barbados (35, 11.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (67, 5.2%); Nigeria (106, 45.9%); Andorra (110, 78.9%); Sri Lanka (126, 21.1%); Egypt (137, 22.1%); Monaco (144, 63.2%); El Salvador (153, 54.6%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); Mauritania (179, 10.1%); Cameroon (223, 21.3%); Papua New Guinea (225, 64.1%); Ghana (226, 7.9%); Guinea (258, 32.1%); Venezuela (284, 83.9%); Eswatini (300, 35.4%); Saudi Arabia (311, 24.4%); Vietnam (326, 18.5%); Botswana (328, 83.6%); Maldives (345, 51.5%); Namibia (347, 50.2%); Chile (370, 17.3%); Senegal (388, 73.2%); Kazakhstan (416, 10.8%); Afghanistan (487, 35.1%); Rwanda (519, 66.9%); Panama (548, 90.7%); Haiti (609, 68.3%); Kuwait (665, 56.7%); Belize (690, 87.3%); Bhutan (690, 81.2%); Azerbaijan (731, 21.6%); Sudan (771, 84.9%); Syria (856, 92.5%); Equatorial Guinea (1014, 16.3%); Gabon (1131, 30.4%); Eritrea (1135, 42.8%); Zimbabwe (1383, 53.7%); Bangladesh (1669, 85.0%); Cabo Verde (1744, 54.5%); Guatemala (1759, 42.2%); Bolivia (1976, 81.3%); Kyrgyzstan (2155, 21.4%); Ethiopia (2295, 86.7%); Gambia (2409, 64.9%); Malawi (4852, 72.6%); Qatar (7054, 9.2%); Finland (8817, 41.0%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Kenya (561087, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): VT (480, 19.4%); HI (508, 82.3%); MI (594, 88.2%); TX (627, 42.1%); AR (1134, 76.3%); OH (1450, 75.9%); RI (3742, 97.0%); DE (5910, 99.3%); IL (26171, 98.7%); WA (29721, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (11, 0.0%); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 5.0%); AB (654, 45.6%)

Toronto had 113 new cases, the third consecutive day of 100+, which last happened on June 11th.

Ontario had 365 new cases, the third consecutive day of 350+, which last happened on May 25th. That pushes us up to 3,055 active cases. The Northwestern health unit saw its first new case since August 26th yesterday, and has seen another one today. Ottawa had its lowest count (14) in 10 days, possibly because more people are getting tested on weekdays for work and school. An Ottawa elementary school however yesterday became the second publicly funded school in the province to have to close due to COVID-19. Peel had 108 cases, its first 100+ day since the spring.

Quebec is following Ontario in bringing back some restrictions on social gatherings, and asking people to refrain from getting tested unless they have sound reasons for believing that they may be infected. Ontario is also seeing increasing delays in test processing, with Toronto's 24-hour percentage down to 25%.

Two cases were reported in Nunavut last week, at Hope Bay Mine. The territory is not counting the cases as local, because the mine is isolated, and no Nunavut residents work or live there.

Today's chart shows U.S. active cases by state and territory, updating a chart from two weeks ago. Starting at the bottom are the states which have worsened in the past week, beginning with the currently worst (Florida) and continuing with New York, Georgia, Illinois, Arizona. Above them all are the dozen that have improved: California, Texas, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, etc.

Stay safe.

2020-09-19

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (111HI→112HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Brazil (421HI→425HI), U.S. (502HI→498HI), New York (1702HI→1649HI), France (16→16), Malta (28→25), Austria (45→45), Denmark (48→48), India (51→51), Sweden (57→51), U.K. (60→55), Toronto (101→93), Iran (108→104), Italy (144→142), Canada (152→144), Indonesia (150→149), Norway (161→162), Ontario (185→170), Germany (182→173), Poland (195→179), Turkey (182→182), Malaysia (715→809), Thailand (3575→3789)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, U.K., Toronto, Iran, Canada, Ontario, Germany, Poland

Worse: Malta, Italy

The same: Indonesia

Better: Israel, Spain, France, Austria, Denmark, India, Norway, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (54, no new data, 43.8%), Singapore (80, no new data, 3.1%), New Zealand (91, no new data, 7.2%), Louisiana (168→152, 22.6%), South Korea (161, no new data, 37.1%), Australia (463, no new data, 23.3%), Japan (602, no new data, 41.1%), Mexico (611, no new data, 63.8%), China (765, no new data, 0.6%), South Africa (2487, no new data, 31.6%), California (7478→25974, 92.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (13, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Sudan (14, 88.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 11.5%); Fiji (21, 32.7%); Comoros (27, 13.5%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Zambia (37, 21.7%); Suriname (42, 31.1%); Namibia (99, 48.9%); Nigeria (103, 45.5%); Andorra (110, 78.9%); Mongolia (110, 8.2%); Ghana (113, 7.8%); Guinea (115, 30.1%); Monaco (118, 61.5%); Egypt (146, 23.9%); Sri Lanka (151, 22.0%); El Salvador (153, 58.1%); Kazakhstan (156, 10.7%); Cameroon (184, 19.9%); Vietnam (202, 18.7%); Botswana (204, 83.6%); Bhutan (231, 82.4%); Maldives (231, 52.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (251, 11.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (302, 6.2%); Chile (314, 17.7%); Saudi Arabia (337, 25.3%); Venezuela (344, 85.3%); Papua New Guinea (372, 67.0%); Rwanda (427, 67.7%); Afghanistan (461, 34.8%); Haiti (481, 68.3%); Moldova (488, 92.2%); Croatia (601, 75.8%); Panama (621, 92.2%); Zimbabwe (659, 53.9%); Senegal (774, 74.5%); Azerbaijan (789, 21.9%); Peru (831, 74.0%); Guatemala (901, 42.0%); Syria (905, 93.3%); Gambia (954, 65.1%); Equatorial Guinea (1014, 16.3%); Belize (1085, 89.2%); Gabon (1131, 30.4%); Kyrgyzstan (1272, 21.3%); Cabo Verde (1394, 53.3%); Bangladesh (1538, 85.5%); Kuwait (1546, 57.9%); Bolivia (1564, 81.7%); Somalia (1662, 41.6%); Ethiopia (1965, 87.1%); Malawi (3888, 72.6%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Honduras (10090, 95.3%); Tajikistan (12001, 61.2%); Russia (28223, 72.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): VT (277, 19.8%); HI (492, 83.5%); MI (863, 88.2%); OH (882, 75.9%); TX (1132, 43.0%); MA (1877, 22.1%); TN (2899, 35.2%); WA (7640, 98.5%); AR (10148, 78.8%); IL (25318, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (12, 0.0%); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 1.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); AB (692, 45.6%)

All the European countries I am following are well into their second waves, with no sign of abating. The only anomaly is Romania, which reported that the number of their recovered cases increased from 43,244 to 88,235 yesterday. It's hard to imagine that it's a typo, so it likely represents a methodological change.

There were 407 new cases in Ontario again today, pushing our active case count up to 2,881. One more person died in a nursing home; no new school numbers, because it's the weekend. The last time we had consecutive 400+ days was June 6-7; the last time we had as many active cases at once was June 12th. This means that all the effort that we put into carefully isolating and distancing ourselves over the summer, and all of the economic burden of locking down the province since then has been wasted, all because we came out of lockdown while there were still far too many cases. The sooner we lock back down again, the sooner we can eliminate COVID-19 from Ontario, and have Canada join the 90+ countries in the world that are winning against the virus.

The Ontario government announced today that in light of the seriousness of the second wave, yesterday's announced ban on indoor residential gatherings of more than 10 people in major cities would be extended province-wide. If you want to get together with ten of your un-bubbled friends, you must do so at a restaurant, bar, strip club, or sports venue and not in your own home.

Today's chart updates one from September 12th, and plots active cases vs. rate of change for my regular countries of interest, plus a few additional ones.

Stay safe.

2020-09-18

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (112HI→111HI), Spain (196HI→193HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Brazil (411HI→421HI), U.S. (512HI→502HI), New York (1702HI→1702HI), France (22→16), Malta (28→28), Austria (47→45), Denmark (48→48), India (51→51), Sweden (58→57), U.K. (60→60), Toronto (121→101), Iran (113→108), Italy (148→144), Indonesia (149→150), Canada (161→152), Norway (161→161), Germany (192→182), Turkey (184→182), Ontario (205→185), Poland (202→195), Malaysia (562→715), Thailand (3569→3575)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Toronto, Iran, Italy, Canada, Germany, Ontario, Poland

Worse: Spain, Austria, Turkey

The same: Israel, Sweden

Better: Malta, Denmark, India, U.K., Indonesia, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (new→54, 43.8%), Singapore (163→80, 3.1%), New Zealand (87→91, 7.2%), South Korea (128→161, 37.1%), Louisiana (133→168, 22.6%), Australia (252→463, 23.3%), Japan (688→602, 41.1%), Mexico (228→611, 63.8%), China (543→765, 0.6%), South Africa (903→2487, 31.6%), California (7140→7478, 92.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (13, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Sudan (14, 88.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 11.5%); Fiji (21, 32.7%); Comoros (27, 13.5%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Zambia (37, 21.7%); Suriname (42, 31.1%); Namibia (99, 48.9%); Nigeria (103, 45.5%); Andorra (110, 78.9%); Mongolia (110, 8.2%); Ghana (113, 7.8%); Guinea (115, 30.1%); Monaco (118, 61.5%); Egypt (146, 23.9%); Sri Lanka (151, 22.0%); El Salvador (153, 58.1%); Kazakhstan (156, 10.7%); Cameroon (184, 19.9%); Vietnam (202, 18.7%); Botswana (204, 83.6%); Bhutan (231, 82.4%); Maldives (231, 52.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (251, 11.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (302, 6.2%); Chile (314, 17.7%); Saudi Arabia (337, 25.3%); Venezuela (344, 85.3%); Papua New Guinea (372, 67.0%); Rwanda (427, 67.7%); Afghanistan (461, 34.8%); Haiti (481, 68.3%); Moldova (488, 92.2%); Croatia (601, 75.8%); Panama (621, 92.2%); Zimbabwe (659, 53.9%); Senegal (774, 74.5%); Azerbaijan (789, 21.9%); Peru (831, 74.0%); Guatemala (901, 42.0%); Syria (905, 93.3%); Gambia (954, 65.1%); Equatorial Guinea (1014, 16.3%); Belize (1085, 89.2%); Gabon (1131, 30.4%); Kyrgyzstan (1272, 21.3%); Cabo Verde (1394, 53.3%); Bangladesh (1538, 85.5%); Kuwait (1546, 57.9%); Bolivia (1564, 81.7%); Somalia (1662, 41.6%); Ethiopia (1965, 87.1%); Malawi (3888, 72.6%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Honduras (10090, 95.3%); Tajikistan (12001, 61.2%); Russia (28223, 72.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): VI (109, 16.6%); VT (153, 19.9%); GU (479, 64.8%); OH (604, 76.4%); HI (645, 85.3%); MA (709, 20.6%); IN (1001, 87.7%); TN (2526, 37.3%); TX (2736, 43.7%); FL (16315, 87.1%); IL (17210, 97.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (13, 0.0%); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 1.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); AB (413, 45.6%)

We had 146 new cases in Toronto today. We hadn't had more than 100 since June 15th, and our 879 new cases are at the level we only previously exceeded from April 6 to June 24.

Today's chart shows the median age of Toronto cases by neighbourhood this month, which has definitely skewed younger. You can interact with it here:

I published a similar chart last month at https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Adah0/1/

After 18 days without losing a patient in long-term care to COVID-19, there have been eight fatalities in Ontario in the last four days.

After 21 days without a single case, northwestern Ontario had two new cases in Thunder Bay.

There were 401 new cases in the province. There hadn't been more than 400 cases in a day since June 7th. We now have 2,652 known active cases, a level not seen since June 13th.

COVID-19 is now in 60 publicly funded schools in the province, 18 in Ottawa and 8 in Toronto.

The province of Ontario responded yesterday to the dramatic upsurge in new cases by banning private indoor gatherings of more than 10 people, while permitting the continued operation (with distancing and capacity restrictions) of restaurants, bars, strip clubs, and sporting events.

Stay safe.

2020-09-17

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (112HI→112HI), Spain (198HI→196HI), U.S. (529HI→512HI), New York (1702HI→1702HI), France (22→22), Malta (27→28), Romania (48→46), Austria (48→47), Denmark (55→48), India (51→51), U.K. (66→60), Iran (119→113), Toronto (121→121), Italy (149→148), Indonesia (146→149), Canada (176→161), Norway (164→161), Turkey (186→184), Germany (201→192), Ontario (219→205), Malaysia (531→562), Thailand (2985→3569), Sweden (63→16693)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Denmark, U.K., Iran, Canada, Germany, Ontario

Worse: Spain, Romania, Norway, Turkey

The same: Austria, Italy

Better: Israel, France, Malta, India, Toronto, Indonesia

Much better: Sweden

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (65→87, 8.3%), South Korea (132→128, 40.0%), Louisiana (162→133, 20.5%), Singapore (170→163, 3.7%), Mexico (295→228, 65.1%), Australia (466→252, 23.4%), China (588→543, 0.6%), Japan (new→688, 43.0%), South Africa (686→903, 30.8%), Brazil (1290→1133, 73.5%), Poland (699→1304, 60.5%), California (12024→7140, 92.0%), Alabama (new→57575, 97.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Barbados (14, 13.5%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 49.0%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 10.9%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Niger (14, 1.8%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 6.3%); Taiwan (14, 6.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (15, 13.5%); Mongolia (46, 9.1%); Djibouti (51, 0.2%); Zambia (57, 30.9%); Chad (65, 12.2%); Suriname (66, 45.5%); Guinea (71, 28.4%); Namibia (75, 53.5%); Ghana (79, 8.9%); Benin (81, 36.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (86, 6.5%); Vietnam (93, 18.7%); Nigeria (105, 46.1%); Bhutan (110, 83.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (111, 9.7%); Maldives (116, 53.8%); Egypt (153, 27.4%); Eswatini (156, 39.5%); Afghanistan (187, 35.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (199, 11.8%); El Salvador (206, 65.1%); Croatia (232, 75.9%); Cabo Verde (237, 49.2%); Rwanda (237, 69.0%); Kazakhstan (243, 11.4%); Gabon (288, 30.6%); Guatemala (315, 41.1%); Monaco (392, 69.6%); Saudi Arabia (420, 27.3%); Philippines (485, 72.6%); Kyrgyzstan (534, 21.5%); Gambia (558, 64.8%); Cuba (601, 74.9%); Moldova (624, 89.9%); Ecuador (645, 43.2%); Papua New Guinea (696, 69.6%); Belize (848, 87.3%); Zimbabwe (876, 54.3%); Syria (884, 95.3%); Ethiopia (917, 88.1%); Haiti (920, 69.9%); Azerbaijan (988, 22.4%); Bolivia (1025, 82.5%); Panama (1160, 95.8%); North Macedonia (1247, 45.4%); Chile (1356, 18.5%); Bangladesh (1387, 86.7%); Somalia (1897, 41.6%); Kenya (2178, 76.9%); Senegal (2240, 79.5%); Finland (2309, 33.0%); Malawi (3996, 73.1%); Yemen (5227, 37.1%); Equatorial Guinea (5685, 16.7%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (6011, 95.9%); Madagascar (9127, 32.3%); Peru (11688, 75.2%); Tajikistan (11966, 61.1%); Bulgaria (26727, 84.7%); Kuwait (45414, 58.4%); Qatar (49139, 9.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (15): VI (94, 15.9%); GU (117, 64.4%); NC (153, 59.4%); MS (159, 42.8%); NH (208, 14.7%); VT (364, 20.3%); MA (465, 19.5%); HI (559, 85.3%); IN (766, 87.3%); OH (962, 77.2%); ND (2652, 98.5%); IA (4250, 98.4%); OR (5024, 97.9%); MN (6159, 54.9%); FL (9172, 86.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%)

There were 85 new cases reported in Toronto today (per Ontario statistics). That's a few cases below the weeks's average, which was 62% above the previous week's average.

Ontario saw 293 new cases today, about 30 cases above the one-week average, which was up 56% over the previous week. All regions of the province are seeing steady increases, except for the Northwest, which has been free of new cases since August 26th. There are now 2,427 active cases in Ontario, which we last exceeded on June 15.

In CMAJ numbers, active cases in British Columbia are up 17% in a week to 1,724; Alberta is up 3% to 1,483; Saskatchewan is up 65% to 109; Manitoba 2% to 293; Quebec up 38% to 2,553; New Brunswick is steady at 3; P.E.I is down from 8 to 1; Nova Scotia down from 2 to 1; Newfoundland and Labrador went up from 1 to 2 and back down to 1. The territories remain free of COVID-19.

This week's chart shows how long it has been since there was a new sporadic case in each of Toronto's neighbourhoods. Here is where you can interact with this week's chart.

It looks very different from the version I published two weeks ago at https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uuXOK/1/ .

Stay safe.

2020-09-16

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (120HI→112HI), Spain (198HI→198HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), U.S. (554HI→529HI), New York (1797HI→1702HI), France (23→22), Malta (31→27), Austria (55→48), Romania (52→48), India (52→51), Denmark (55→55), Sweden (63→63), U.K. (66→66), Iran (124→119), Toronto (124→121), Indonesia (150→146), Italy (149→149), Norway (147→164), Canada (190→176), Turkey (187→186), Germany (208→201), Ontario (243→219), Japan (392→389), Malaysia (578→531), Thailand (3771→2985)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Malta, Austria, Romania, Iran, Indonesia, Canada, Germany, Ontario

Worse: Toronto

The same: France, India, Turkey

Better: Spain, Denmark, Sweden, U.K., Italy

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (64→65, 8.5%), South Korea (153→132, 41.2%), Louisiana (new→162, 19.5%), Singapore (952→170, 4.0%), Mexico (404→295, 66.1%), Australia (223→466, 24.6%), China (1709→588, 0.6%), South Africa (12474→686, 30.4%), Poland (472→699, 60.3%), Brazil (3159→1290, 73.1%), California (31286→12024, 92.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (86): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 49.0%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritania (14, 11.6%); Monaco (14, 71.3%); Niger (14, 1.8%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 6.3%); Taiwan (14, 6.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 36.9%); Comoros (15, 13.5%); Barbados (18, 15.4%); Djibouti (21, 0.2%); Mongolia (46, 9.1%); Namibia (61, 55.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (63, 9.6%); Benin (70, 34.6%); Ghana (71, 8.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (86, 6.5%); Vietnam (89, 19.8%); Maldives (107, 56.5%); Suriname (109, 52.7%); Bhutan (127, 83.5%); Iceland (129, 5.7%); Zambia (142, 40.5%); Eswatini (145, 38.9%); Guinea (153, 35.8%); Egypt (164, 29.3%); Liberia (179, 6.7%); Chad (209, 15.5%); Croatia (234, 76.0%); Libya (236, 84.5%); Cyprus (245, 45.7%); Kazakhstan (245, 11.7%); Rwanda (247, 71.2%); Cuba (256, 67.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (273, 12.3%); Afghanistan (283, 37.8%); El Salvador (320, 69.6%); Gambia (347, 65.7%); Gabon (370, 31.2%); Ecuador (431, 37.0%); Kyrgyzstan (436, 21.8%); Saudi Arabia (456, 27.9%); Guatemala (470, 43.1%); Belize (529, 91.0%); Philippines (574, 69.1%); Ethiopia (652, 88.4%); Switzerland (755, 40.6%); Azerbaijan (759, 22.6%); Bolivia (772, 83.1%); Syria (783, 96.0%); North Macedonia (847, 44.8%); Togo (985, 90.1%); Moldova (1245, 88.5%); Peru (1246, 77.2%); Bangladesh (1312, 87.5%); Papua New Guinea (1725, 70.9%); Somalia (1897, 41.6%); Zimbabwe (1960, 54.9%); Pakistan (2044, 5.7%); Panama (3909, 98.1%); Mali (4725, 74.6%); Qatar (4734, 9.3%); Equatorial Guinea (5685, 16.7%); Uruguay (5853, 78.2%); Malawi (6303, 73.1%); Dominican Republic (8391, 72.6%); Sudan (8517, 88.9%); Senegal (11426, 80.1%); Madagascar (11733, 31.3%); Iraq (13021, 99.3%); Kenya (73208, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (17): GU (109, 63.4%); MS (131, 40.0%); NC (135, 54.7%); VI (136, 14.6%); NH (183, 14.0%); MN (227, 48.1%); VT (286, 20.3%); MA (362, 18.4%); AR (474, 91.6%); HI (698, 88.4%); SD (1153, 79.9%); OH (1305, 78.1%); FL (8451, 86.5%); TX (10337, 45.4%); ND (21920, 91.8%); IN (24956, 88.0%); NV (30884, 90.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%)

Malta saw its first ever day with 100+ new cases. About half their new cases seem to be from close contact at home or work, and half at nursing homes. It is not clear to me why they are having trouble containing transmission.

Toronto's municipal COVID-19 indicators are showing two out of nine in the red (7-day moving average of new cases moving upward, only 31% of test results available within 24 hours), and another two out of nine in the yellow (related to hospitalizations and institutional outbreaks).

There were 82 new cases in Toronto, the second highest count since June. We now have 761 active cases, a level that we previously exceeded from April 5 to July 4. Total hospital cases were down over two days from 25 to 20, but of those the ICU cases were up from 5 to 7 and intubations from 2 to 4.

Two more public schools in Toronto reported cases (Brookhaven P.S. and York Mills C.I.), bringing us to a total of six in this first week of classes for most students.

The two new sporadic cases in our neighbourhood (the first since June 2nd), were announced today as a woman in her twenties who acquired COVID-19 in the community on the weekend, and a woman in her thirties who acquired it through close contact.

Today's chart shows how many cases there were in each neighbourhood in the last week, a significant change from the previous week. You can interact with it here

Here's last week's for comparison: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KinG3/1/

There were 315 new cases in the province of Ontario today, the largest number since June 7th. The media are reporting on a recent uptick in cases and deaths in long-term care (where maintaining adequate staffing is reportedly a serious problem). Premier Ford is actively discussing how to reinstitute social gathering limits in Toronto, Peel and Ottawa. He also tried unsuccessfully in today's news conference to shift blame to municipal governments (for not acting unilaterally to lock down) and the federal government (for not enforcing its quarantine rules more strictly). The media was quick to respond with hard-to-answer questions about strip clubs and Conservative political weddings. The Premier appears to be having difficulty reconciling conflicting desires to keep his business supporters staffed at a profitable level, and his constituents alive and healthy.

Seven of ten provinces have seen increasing numbers of active cases over the last few days. As indicated above, the only ones whose situations are improving are P.E.I., Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Stay safe.

2020-09-15

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (120HI→120HI), Spain (139HI→198HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (636HI→554HI), New York (1816HI→1797HI), France (25→23), Malta (34→31), India (52→52), Romania (52→52), Austria (55→55), Denmark (63→55), U.K. (69→66), Iran (132→124), Toronto (131→124), Italy (147→149), Indonesia (150→150), Turkey (187→187), Canada (173→190), Germany (218→208), Ontario (254→243), Malaysia (484→578), Thailand (4272→3771)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Denmark, Iran, Toronto, Germany, Ontario

Worse: France, Malta, U.K.

Better: Israel, India, Romania, Austria, Italy, Indonesia, Turkey

Much better: Spain, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (94→64, 8.9%), Norway (94→102, 41.4%), South Korea (218→153, 45.8%), Australia (194→223, 25.0%), Mexico (new→404, 68.6%), Poland (353→472, 59.6%), Japan (685→661, 43.8%), Singapore (561→952, 4.3%), China (316→1709, 0.7%), Brazil (new→3159, 74.1%), Alabama (13863→3310, 96.6%), South Africa (2981→12474, 32.2%), California (56742→31286, 92.4%), Sweden (new→210151, 83.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Eritrea (14, 41.3%); Fiji (14, 49.0%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 6.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 6.3%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Djibouti (21, 0.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Niger (30, 1.4%); Barbados (33, 21.2%); Comoros (39, 22.1%); Liberia (39, 5.6%); Mongolia (46, 9.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (48, 9.6%); Benin (70, 34.6%); Vietnam (85, 20.8%); Ghana (97, 9.9%); Maldives (101, 60.4%); Namibia (104, 68.6%); Iceland (111, 5.7%); Eswatini (123, 39.0%); Guinea (149, 38.3%); Monaco (152, 71.3%); Egypt (168, 31.2%); Suriname (183, 57.3%); Papua New Guinea (186, 71.3%); Gabon (195, 31.2%); Cuba (199, 68.1%); Cyprus (213, 44.6%); Croatia (231, 80.1%); Bhutan (237, 89.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (256, 12.6%); Afghanistan (279, 37.7%); Somalia (293, 42.3%); Rwanda (310, 72.9%); Libya (326, 83.5%); Guyana (330, 91.8%); Kyrgyzstan (351, 21.9%); Gambia (424, 67.2%); Colombia (426, 54.2%); Togo (427, 89.5%); Luxembourg (510, 25.3%); Guatemala (514, 43.9%); Philippines (514, 64.7%); Saudi Arabia (522, 28.6%); Ethiopia (556, 89.0%); Senegal (615, 78.0%); Bolivia (647, 84.1%); El Salvador (673, 74.2%); Azerbaijan (953, 22.9%); Haiti (1165, 73.2%); Bangladesh (1340, 88.2%); Syria (1362, 96.7%); Ecuador (1531, 35.0%); Equatorial Guinea (1634, 16.7%); Mauritania (1924, 10.9%); Peru (1927, 78.6%); Dominican Republic (2523, 72.4%); North Macedonia (2929, 45.2%); Qatar (3083, 9.2%); Jamaica (3544, 99.1%); Belize (3806, 91.7%); Malawi (4668, 73.2%); Panama (8064, 98.8%); Pakistan (10307, 5.5%); Sudan (12979, 88.9%); Kenya (60073, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): VI (80, 15.9%); MS (115, 37.1%); NC (133, 51.3%); GU (200, 68.6%); NH (274, 15.5%); MN (290, 50.1%); WY (426, 72.2%); SD (643, 78.1%); MI (693, 93.8%); TN (849, 35.7%); HI (854, 89.8%); MP (1058, 93.6%); TX (1180, 44.8%); NV (9184, 90.5%); FL (10513, 86.2%); OH (35661, 79.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); MB (388, 57.5%)

Ontario's 251 new cases kept us above 200 for the fifth day in a row, as last happened at the beginning of June. Four long-term care residents died, the most in a day since August 27th. Active cases climbed 130 to 2,157.

The number of schools in Ontario with confirmed cases of COVID-19 nearly doubled today, from 15 to 29. The Toronto District School Board, which started reopening for the new school year today, reported four staff cases at four different schools across the city. (Our sons have been told that their online schooling, originally scheduled to start today too, won't start before Thursday of next week.) Ottawa has the most affected schools, with nine. The rest, except for one in Pembroke, are in the greater Toronto area.

This week's chart shows which parts of Ontario (in pink) are doing worse per capita in the past week than in the week before that, and which are doing better (in green). You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-09-14

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (124HI→120HI), Spain (193HI→139HI), Brazil (455HI→455HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (566HI→636HI), New York (1816HI→1816HI), France (25→25), Malta (36→34), India (52→52), Romania (51→52), Austria (56→55), Denmark (63→63), Sweden (63→63), U.K. (68→69), Mexico (87→87), Toronto (149→131), Iran (132→132), Italy (145→147), Indonesia (150→150), Canada (202→173), Turkey (187→187), Germany (209→218), Ontario (278→254), Malaysia (453→484), Thailand (4418→4272)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Spain, Toronto, Canada, Ontario

Worse: Malta

The same: Austria

Better: France, India, Romania, Denmark, Sweden, U.K., Mexico, Iran, Italy, Indonesia, Turkey, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (83→94, 10.3%), Norway (96→94, 38.3%), Australia (203→194, 25.7%), South Korea (220→218, 50.0%), China (253→316, 0.7%), Poland (292→353, 60.0%), Singapore (new→561, 4.3%), Japan (560→685, 44.5%), South Africa (2101→2981, 32.5%), Alabama (13863, no new data, 97.4%), California (56742, no new data, 92.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Comoros (14, 32.7%); Fiji (14, 49.0%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 6.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 6.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 6.5%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (23, 19.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Niger (30, 1.4%); Liberia (51, 5.9%); Benin (70, 34.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (70, 11.2%); Maldives (101, 65.5%); Iceland (103, 5.7%); Namibia (105, 69.8%); Vietnam (109, 22.4%); Mongolia (142, 10.0%); Egypt (172, 33.1%); Papua New Guinea (172, 70.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (173, 12.7%); Cyprus (182, 43.2%); Mauritania (202, 10.5%); Suriname (208, 63.0%); Monaco (221, 68.0%); Colombia (279, 55.5%); Somalia (293, 42.3%); Libya (320, 82.3%); Rwanda (323, 73.9%); Guinea (326, 40.9%); Kyrgyzstan (331, 22.3%); Belize (373, 90.4%); Philippines (380, 59.3%); Cameroon (408, 21.9%); Gabon (415, 33.8%); Bolivia (433, 84.4%); Croatia (479, 87.0%); Gambia (479, 67.2%); Afghanistan (524, 40.4%); Saudi Arabia (590, 29.4%); Guyana (601, 94.9%); Ethiopia (639, 89.9%); Ghana (676, 12.7%); Senegal (738, 78.4%); Bhutan (786, 90.6%); Guatemala (812, 44.9%); Jamaica (840, 95.0%); Pakistan (1260, 5.6%); Bangladesh (1288, 88.9%); Zimbabwe (1297, 56.9%); Azerbaijan (1377, 23.2%); Kazakhstan (1571, 13.3%); Eswatini (1577, 46.4%); Sudan (1584, 88.4%); Honduras (2172, 94.9%); Equatorial Guinea (2294, 16.8%); Qatar (2367, 9.3%); Haiti (2901, 73.0%); Togo (3020, 92.5%); Kuwait (3674, 58.2%); Zambia (4894, 43.2%); Kenya (5071, 78.2%); Dominican Republic (5112, 72.9%); Malawi (5217, 74.0%); Syria (5895, 97.4%); El Salvador (6584, 78.3%); Panama (31573, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): VI (32, 19.3%); WY (182, 82.8%); VT (306, 21.5%); MP (523, 92.3%); TN (548, 34.3%); HI (556, 91.0%); TX (573, 44.1%); MI (834, 88.4%); NV (2342, 90.7%); WA (7223, 98.3%); MN (13808, 55.3%); NM (133476, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (35, 40.0%); MB (47, 51.1%); AB (342, 46.2%)

Ontario's active case count increased by 180 to 2,030 today. That's the first time since June that we have had more than 2,000, and the first time since April 23rd that our active cases have increased so much in a day.

Two new schools reported cases in Mississauga and Pembroke, bringing the provincial total to 15. No schools in Toronto proper have reported cases, presumably because they haven't been open long enough.

Today's chart shows the cumulative cases reported in each region in the province, illustrating the recent exponential growth in our area.

Toronto saw 124 new cases, including two new sporadic cases in our Playter Estates neighbourhood, which hadn't seen any cases since June 2nd. June 8th was the last time we saw as many as 124 new cases in a day.

I am glad that I stocked up on toilet paper yesterday, and surprised that Loblaws had it on sale.

Stay safe.

2020-09-13

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (129HI→124HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (558HI→566HI), New York (1816HI→1816HI), Singapore (3911HI→3821HI), France (25→25), Malta (45→36), Romania (51→51), India (52→52), Austria (61→56), Denmark (82→63), Sweden (63→63), U.K. (70→68), Mexico (87→87), Iran (135→132), Italy (148→145), Toronto (154→149), Indonesia (150→150), Turkey (186→187), Germany (214→209), Ontario (287→278), Malaysia (492→453)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Malta, Austria, Denmark, Toronto, Germany, Ontario

Worse: U.K., Iran, Italy

Better: Spain, France, Romania, India, Sweden, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (156→14, 7.1%), New Zealand (165→83, 10.4%), Norway (95→96, 36.4%), Australia (177→203, 26.7%), South Korea (184→220, 52.3%), China (188→253, 0.7%), Poland (281→292, 62.4%), Japan (420→560, 45.4%), Canada (new→2014, 20.6%), South Africa (1940→2101, 32.5%), Alabama (2181→13863, 97.4%), Brazil (1696→27663, 77.1%), California (3808→56742, 92.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Comoros (14, 32.7%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 6.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Liechtenstein (16, 10.9%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Liberia (41, 5.2%); Vietnam (80, 23.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (98, 12.2%); Barbados (109, 28.8%); Iceland (110, 6.1%); Niger (110, 1.8%); Cameroon (111, 18.1%); Maldives (126, 70.9%); Latvia (159, 42.2%); Mongolia (176, 11.8%); Cyprus (179, 42.6%); Colombia (188, 55.2%); Egypt (191, 35.4%); Cote d'Ivoire (200, 13.7%); Papua New Guinea (202, 71.9%); Gabon (206, 33.8%); Pakistan (207, 5.4%); Namibia (232, 83.9%); Belize (287, 90.4%); Somalia (287, 42.2%); Guinea (307, 41.9%); Kyrgyzstan (315, 23.0%); Libya (338, 79.6%); Togo (384, 88.2%); Armenia (387, 26.0%); Kazakhstan (416, 13.2%); Equatorial Guinea (470, 16.8%); Bolivia (528, 86.2%); Peru (531, 75.5%); Mauritania (542, 11.2%); Rwanda (544, 78.9%); Afghanistan (581, 42.8%); Suriname (592, 68.8%); Zimbabwe (635, 56.3%); Gambia (689, 68.5%); Croatia (842, 87.7%); Ethiopia (868, 92.3%); Senegal (885, 80.8%); Saudi Arabia (930, 30.1%); Ghana (967, 12.7%); Sudan (1008, 87.3%); Honduras (1078, 93.8%); Bangladesh (1207, 89.8%); Guinea-Bissau (1490, 77.9%); Malawi (1616, 73.7%); Azerbaijan (1975, 23.2%); Haiti (2252, 72.5%); Chile (2393, 19.1%); Qatar (2909, 9.2%); Kenya (3271, 78.3%); Russia (3457, 70.0%); El Salvador (4073, 78.2%); Guatemala (5144, 46.4%); Panama (7945, 99.5%); Serbia (8557, 82.4%); Nigeria (10030, 66.4%); Morocco (17776, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): VI (32, 19.3%); WY (182, 82.8%); AR (304, 75.0%); VT (306, 21.5%); MP (523, 92.3%); TN (548, 34.3%); HI (556, 91.0%); TX (573, 44.1%); MI (834, 88.4%); RI (2296, 97.5%); NV (2342, 90.7%); WA (7223, 98.4%); MN (13808, 55.3%); NM (133476, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (35, 40.0%); MB (47, 51.1%); AB (342, 46.2%)

Malta is doing poorly, and its 78 new cases were the most since July. Malta had a slight virtual improvement when they stopped counting migrants in their official numbers, but they have significant community and workplace transmission now, and a third of today's cases were from one nursing home.

Israel is doing worse. For the first time, it's had a week of more than 2,000 new cases each day, and its second wave now has more active cases than the first one did, a feat also recently achieved by France, Spain and the U.K.

Today's chart shows how European countries are faring with their active case counts.

Ontario's active case count increased by 80 today to 1,850 (about where we were at the beginning of July), after 204 new cases were offset by only 124 recoveries. It was the third straight day of 200+ new cases, something that hasn't happened since June 11th. June was a relatively happy time. We were getting the hang of COVID-19, kept our masks on and stayed distant. We could tell that things were getting better, and there was a faint hope that we would mostly be over it by fall. Instead we threw it all away so that we could send people to unnecessarily dangerous jobs to catch COVID-19 and share it with their family members, and celebrated the warm weather by gathering in large numbers and breathing at each other. Right now is not a happy time. Now is the time when we see that we wasted the summer months, and are putting our children and their educators at risk sending them back to school in the middle of a global pandemic.

Stay safe.

2020-09-12

Comment on this post on facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (137HI→129HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), U.S. (541HI→558HI), New York (1831HI→1816HI), Singapore (3994HI→3911HI), France (27→25), Malta (44→45), Romania (51→51), India (53→52), Austria (71→61), Sweden (63→63), U.K. (77→70), Denmark (98→82), Mexico (85→87), Iran (135→135), Italy (145→148), Indonesia (153→150), Toronto (168→154), Turkey (183→186), Canada (214→207), Germany (221→214), Ontario (302→287), Malaysia (551→492)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Austria, U.K., Denmark, Toronto, Canada, Germany, Ontario

Worse: France, Indonesia

The same: India

Better: Spain, Malta, Romania, Sweden, Mexico, Iran, Italy, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Norway (new→95, 34.5%), Thailand (136→156, 6.3%), Louisiana (169→158, 24.8%), New Zealand (630→165, 11.6%), Australia (275→177, 26.4%), South Korea (217→184, 53.5%), China (170→188, 0.7%), Poland (242→281, 63.9%), Japan (402→420, 45.7%), Brazil (687→1696, 76.3%), South Africa (756→1940, 32.5%), Alabama (5489→2181, 97.2%), California (2858→3808, 92.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Cambodia (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 2.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (18, 1.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Barbados (75, 28.8%); Vietnam (82, 25.1%); Liberia (123, 7.4%); Latvia (145, 41.0%); Papua New Guinea (151, 71.9%); Luxembourg (163, 26.7%); Maldives (165, 76.2%); Mongolia (176, 11.8%); Somalia (177, 42.2%); Armenia (184, 26.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (185, 13.7%); Egypt (198, 37.3%); Gabon (206, 33.8%); Colombia (219, 57.2%); Rwanda (295, 81.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (304, 14.4%); Kyrgyzstan (306, 23.6%); Guinea (313, 43.1%); Pakistan (353, 5.8%); Iceland (368, 6.6%); Croatia (465, 87.7%); Equatorial Guinea (470, 16.8%); Afghanistan (481, 43.1%); Nepal (481, 81.1%); Chile (524, 18.8%); Suriname (568, 67.9%); Comoros (582, 32.7%); Kosovo (647, 77.6%); North Macedonia (656, 46.6%); Kazakhstan (683, 13.6%); Bolivia (733, 88.1%); Honduras (764, 91.9%); Moldova (790, 91.4%); Senegal (944, 80.3%); Bangladesh (1112, 90.8%); Sudan (1304, 89.3%); Zimbabwe (1371, 55.8%); Haiti (1434, 71.9%); Guinea-Bissau (1490, 77.9%); Ethiopia (1549, 94.4%); Malawi (1649, 73.5%); Mauritania (1661, 11.6%); Saudi Arabia (1771, 30.6%); Kenya (1963, 77.9%); Russia (2005, 70.0%); Peru (2345, 80.3%); El Salvador (3218, 78.4%); Dominican Republic (4069, 73.0%); Serbia (4190, 82.3%); Namibia (5155, 96.7%); Yemen (5199, 36.9%); Qatar (5273, 9.3%); West Bank and Gaza (5989, 96.0%); Togo (9034, 92.5%); Guatemala (65202, 46.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (21): VI (25, 16.6%); WY (164, 79.6%); TN (333, 34.3%); VT (349, 21.9%); MN (401, 56.4%); AR (518, 81.0%); MP (523, 92.3%); SD (540, 82.3%); PA (934, 70.1%); TX (980, 46.6%); HI (1263, 93.1%); OK (1309, 96.8%); KS (1457, 97.2%); MA (1469, 20.5%); MI (1756, 88.4%); NV (2248, 90.7%); ME (2701, 68.3%); MT (2732, 94.4%); RI (4882, 98.0%); CO (10910, 99.6%); NM (27968, 93.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.2%); MB (49, 50.9%); PE (94, 40.0%); AB (201, 46.2%); QC (873, 9.3%)

Ontario had more than 200 new cases today for the second day in a row, something that hadn't happened since early June. 86% of the cases were in Toronto (77), Peel (62) and the rest of the Central East (33), and Ottawa (27). It was the first time in over a month that Toronto had two consecutive 70+ days. In Ontario today, we had one new case for every seven active cases, meaning that each active cases is infecting on average two new cases during its 14-day term.

Today's chart plots estimated active cases vs. rate of change.

Stay safe.

2020-09-11

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (150HI→137HI), Spain (195HI→193HI), U.S. (523HI→541HI), New York (1784HI→1831HI), France (30→27), Romania (52→51), India (54→53), Sweden (69→63), Austria (77→71), U.K. (84→77), Denmark (98→98), Iran (138→135), Italy (144→145), Indonesia (154→153), Norway (152→159), Toronto (182→168), Turkey (184→183), Canada (217→214), Germany (224→221), Ontario (319→302), Malaysia (917→551)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Sweden, Austria, U.K., Toronto, Ontario

Worse: Spain, France, Iran, Canada, Germany

The same: Romania, India, Indonesia, Turkey

Better: Denmark, Italy, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (103→136, 6.3%), Louisiana (142→169, 24.8%), China (233→170, 0.7%), South Korea (238→217, 57.6%), Poland (177→242, 64.9%), Australia (326→275, 29.1%), Japan (373→402, 46.5%), New Zealand (new→630, 12.3%), Brazil (654→687, 75.4%), South Africa (771→756, 32.4%), Malta (952→949, 55.4%), Singapore (466→1039, 4.5%), Mexico (538→2114, 76.7%), California (2903→2858, 92.5%), Alabama (1696→5489, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Cambodia (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (23, 2.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (47, 52.9%); Vietnam (53, 26.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (81, 6.2%); Latvia (105, 38.5%); Cabo Verde (118, 51.1%); Mongolia (176, 11.8%); Liberia (178, 8.5%); Luxembourg (178, 26.7%); Gabon (180, 36.4%); Rwanda (185, 80.9%); North Macedonia (189, 45.7%); Armenia (200, 26.2%); Burundi (207, 78.3%); Egypt (211, 39.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (212, 14.1%); Barbados (229, 30.8%); Colombia (234, 60.8%); Suriname (234, 66.9%); Nepal (250, 78.5%); Equatorial Guinea (254, 17.0%); Iceland (260, 6.8%); Maldives (269, 83.3%); Kyrgyzstan (305, 24.1%); Pakistan (309, 5.5%); Kazakhstan (355, 13.4%); Chad (359, 10.0%); Somalia (467, 46.5%); Croatia (476, 92.6%); Afghanistan (550, 43.0%); Comoros (582, 32.7%); Peru (589, 80.7%); Papua New Guinea (631, 80.8%); Kosovo (647, 77.6%); Chile (672, 18.7%); Honduras (748, 94.4%); Mauritania (789, 11.0%); Sudan (847, 89.2%); Guinea (901, 46.4%); Lesotho (918, 79.5%); Bangladesh (1022, 91.5%); Senegal (1057, 82.6%); Bolivia (1245, 90.1%); Guatemala (1398, 47.3%); Guinea-Bissau (1490, 77.9%); Eswatini (1573, 49.2%); Kenya (1585, 77.8%); Yemen (1722, 36.6%); Namibia (2124, 95.9%); Malawi (2417, 73.8%); Saudi Arabia (2472, 31.0%); Azerbaijan (2542, 23.7%); El Salvador (2578, 78.5%); Ethiopia (3087, 96.2%); Serbia (3448, 82.2%); Qatar (3990, 9.3%); Dominican Republic (6509, 73.6%); Russia (7551, 70.2%); South Sudan (77137, 58.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): VI (34, 20.0%); GU (126, 79.2%); MS (138, 52.2%); WY (194, 77.0%); MN (223, 56.8%); VT (243, 20.8%); SD (244, 82.3%); TX (301, 46.6%); TN (355, 37.4%); ND (385, 88.6%); MA (499, 19.1%); ME (546, 65.4%); HI (605, 93.7%); OK (653, 94.2%); MT (674, 89.2%); OH (1245, 79.7%); IN (1252, 85.1%); KS (1457, 97.2%); NV (1748, 90.9%); NM (4225, 93.4%); IA (9206, 99.5%); AZ (21445, 80.3%); US (24939, 99.8%); ID (258352, 96.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%); MB (71, 61.3%); QC (456, 9.2%)

There were more than 70 new cases in Toronto today, taking us back to the beginning of July by this measure of intensity, and mid-July according to the 546 known active cases in the city. Mayor Tory announced today the opening of our first COVID-19 hotel: a hotel leased to the city for a year to provide isolation for those whose living circumstances would make it difficult for them to avoid transmitting the disease to their families. Toronto Public Health will provide food, accommodation and laundry services to qualifying individuals for up to 14 days of quarantine. They have already been doing this successfully with homeless people, and the idea has apparently been effective in major American cities.

Today's chart plots the age rates per capita of Toronto's cases by time, and shows how those in their 20s and 30s are still leading the way.

Ontario had 213 new cases today, a level which was last matched in late June; the last time we had 1,657 active cases was July 8th. After two days below 20, Ottawa jumped back up to its recent high of 37 new cases; Waterloo had 15 new cases (the most since June 1st). These, together with Toronto and the 64 cases in the Central East, made up 88% of the new cases today.

Ontario has started reported daily on COVID-19 in schools. Today, there are 13 schools with active COVID-19 cases, 6 in Ottawa, 2 each in Brampton and Oshawa, and 1 each in Mississauga, Pickering, and Waterloo.

Stay safe.

2020-09-10

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (152HI→150HI), Spain (197HI→197HI), U.S. (469HI→506HI), New York (1736HI→1784HI), France (32→30), Romania (52→52), India (55→54), Sweden (77→76), Austria (91→85), U.K. (99→91), Denmark (123→123), Iran (144→139), Italy (149→147), Indonesia (154→154), Norway (167→167), Turkey (183→182), Toronto (202→195), Canada (222→220), Germany (233→231), Ontario (303→329), Malaysia (1134→1043), New Zealand (1360→1318), Thailand (4389→5793)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, U.K., Iran, Toronto

Worse: Israel, France, Italy, Canada, Germany

The same: India, Sweden, Turkey

Better: Spain, Romania, Denmark, Indonesia, Norway, Ontario

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (84→133, 4.2%), Poland (144→144, 71.6%), China (175→163, 0.7%), Louisiana (new→177, 22.3%), Malta (202→200, 50.9%), Australia (232→331, 31.6%), Japan (180→336, 48.7%), South Korea (612→359, 61.5%), South Africa (491→565, 33.2%), Brazil (1654→665, 77.2%), Mexico (1141→778, 73.5%), Alabama (14823→2235, 97.7%), California (8470→2775, 92.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (6, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 79.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 12.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 19.0%); Tajikistan (14, 60.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); San Marino (16, 4.9%); Niger (23, 2.0%); Liberia (31, 7.6%); Congo (Brazzaville) (45, 51.1%); Vietnam (48, 30.8%); Cyprus (82, 48.8%); Iceland (111, 7.3%); Pakistan (129, 6.5%); Armenia (160, 28.5%); Cuba (166, 67.5%); Cabo Verde (169, 49.8%); Kazakhstan (187, 14.4%); Philippines (187, 63.6%); Nepal (193, 80.7%); Rwanda (205, 83.8%); North Macedonia (216, 46.0%); Egypt (223, 43.7%); United Arab Emirates (224, 46.1%); Papua New Guinea (241, 80.7%); Barbados (247, 32.7%); Eswatini (250, 46.5%); Suriname (288, 72.3%); Benin (293, 46.1%); Kyrgyzstan (300, 25.6%); Gabon (321, 39.1%); Afghanistan (322, 45.6%); Lesotho (386, 76.4%); Guatemala (418, 46.8%); Botswana (449, 93.5%); Equatorial Guinea (449, 17.8%); Mauritania (454, 11.8%); Kosovo (487, 77.6%); Croatia (513, 91.3%); Colombia (621, 71.4%); Maldives (663, 92.1%); Luxembourg (839, 26.1%); Senegal (878, 84.1%); Guyana (892, 90.7%); Malawi (952, 75.2%); Burundi (957, 75.8%); Haiti (1013, 73.6%); Bangladesh (1169, 93.5%); Gambia (1259, 71.7%); Kenya (1413, 79.2%); Sri Lanka (1545, 20.4%); Namibia (1666, 97.8%); El Salvador (1709, 79.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (1745, 15.8%); Honduras (2239, 97.6%); Azerbaijan (2356, 23.6%); Peru (2461, 82.9%); Yemen (2620, 37.1%); Serbia (3193, 82.8%); Saudi Arabia (4045, 31.5%); Qatar (4762, 9.3%); Ethiopia (4938, 97.1%); Somalia (5000, 46.5%); Sudan (8681, 90.5%); Angola (9810, 98.8%); Central African Republic (12665, 61.9%); Greece (39588, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (29): GU (107, 76.2%); MS (109, 46.6%); MN (131, 55.4%); NC (139, 61.8%); SD (149, 79.6%); ND (252, 83.7%); MA (321, 16.9%); TX (358, 47.9%); VT (372, 23.1%); ME (424, 65.1%); NH (427, 12.7%); TN (552, 36.9%); PA (797, 68.5%); IN (1091, 84.3%); NE (1196, 96.6%); KY (1217, 96.6%); HI (1348, 97.2%); NM (5909, 93.9%); KS (6070, 96.4%); OH (6257, 77.8%); GA (8317, 98.5%); ID (10030, 95.2%); SC (10556, 98.7%); OR (11902, 99.5%); RI (14504, 99.7%); AZ (17943, 80.1%); NV (22847, 92.3%); CT (30666, 88.4%); FL (160588, 86.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.6%); MB (505, 86.3%)

When I started tracking these numbers, it was harder to find good COVID-19 data than it is today. Johns Hopkins University had their global data and American data, but it came out only nightly, inconveniently late, didn't include Canadian provinces, and lacked explanation of its frequent anomalies. For many regions of interest, I was able to find standardized Wikipedia pages that were updated often more than daily, and had interesting discussions about what was going on with shifting data criteria. The COVIDTracking.com project had better coverage of U.S. state. The CMAJ dataset had its own idiosyncrasies, but was in an easy to fetch and parse format, and of course had complete Canadian coverage. And for Ontario and Toronto of course, I have good open data. So I had been patching together the regions of interest stats from non-JHU sources, and supplementing them with JHU for global figures.

Across Ontario, numbers were down somewhat from 185 to 149 new cases. (Yesterday's 375 cases turned out to be a two-day total of 190 and 185.) Ottawa was down substantially, from 37 to 16, the lowest in four days, perhaps suggesting that they had finished counting all the people infected at a recent party; Peel, York and Toronto were relatively steady (at a level roughly twice that of two weeks ago), and there were no major flareups.

In Toronto, hospitalisations, which had declined daily since June 23rd (except for one single-case blip last month), soared back up from 22 to 26 in the last two days. Unresolved cases climbed from 465 to 507 in those two days. With one new case for every seven active cases, our R value is running close to 2.0.

Today's chart is one that I make weekly showing where the past week's cases were across the city. You can interact with it here.

The Toronto District School Board has delayed the start of school, already delayed a week, by an additional two days to September 17th, citing staffing complexities.

Stay safe.

2020-09-09

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (152HI→150HI), Spain (197HI→197HI), U.S. (469HI→506HI), New York (1736HI→1784HI), France (32→30), Romania (52→52), India (55→54), Sweden (77→76), Austria (91→85), U.K. (99→91), Denmark (123→123), Iran (144→139), Italy (149→147), Indonesia (154→154), Norway (167→167), Turkey (183→182), Toronto (202→195), Canada (222→220), Germany (233→231), Ontario (303→329), Malaysia (1134→1043), New Zealand (1360→1318), Thailand (4389→5793)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, U.K., Iran, Toronto

Worse: Israel, France, Italy, Canada, Germany

The same: India, Sweden, Turkey

Better: Spain, Romania, Denmark, Indonesia, Norway, Ontario

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (84→133, 4.2%), Poland (144→144, 71.6%), China (175→163, 0.7%), Louisiana (new→177, 22.3%), Malta (202→200, 50.9%), Australia (232→331, 31.6%), Japan (180→336, 48.7%), South Korea (612→359, 61.5%), South Africa (491→565, 33.2%), Brazil (1654→665, 77.2%), Mexico (1141→778, 73.5%), Alabama (14823→2235, 97.7%), California (8470→2775, 92.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (6, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 79.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 12.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 19.0%); Tajikistan (14, 60.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); San Marino (16, 4.9%); Niger (23, 2.0%); Liberia (31, 7.6%); Congo (Brazzaville) (45, 51.1%); Vietnam (48, 30.8%); Cyprus (82, 48.8%); Iceland (111, 7.3%); Pakistan (129, 6.5%); Armenia (160, 28.5%); Cuba (166, 67.5%); Cabo Verde (169, 49.8%); Kazakhstan (187, 14.4%); Philippines (187, 63.6%); Nepal (193, 80.7%); Rwanda (205, 83.8%); North Macedonia (216, 46.0%); Egypt (223, 43.7%); United Arab Emirates (224, 46.1%); Papua New Guinea (241, 80.7%); Barbados (247, 32.7%); Eswatini (250, 46.5%); Suriname (288, 72.3%); Benin (293, 46.1%); Kyrgyzstan (300, 25.6%); Gabon (321, 39.1%); Afghanistan (322, 45.6%); Lesotho (386, 76.4%); Guatemala (418, 46.8%); Botswana (449, 93.5%); Equatorial Guinea (449, 17.8%); Mauritania (454, 11.8%); Kosovo (487, 77.6%); Croatia (513, 91.3%); Colombia (621, 71.4%); Maldives (663, 92.1%); Luxembourg (839, 26.1%); Senegal (878, 84.1%); Guyana (892, 90.7%); Malawi (952, 75.2%); Burundi (957, 75.8%); Haiti (1013, 73.6%); Bangladesh (1169, 93.5%); Gambia (1259, 71.7%); Kenya (1413, 79.2%); Sri Lanka (1545, 20.4%); Namibia (1666, 97.8%); El Salvador (1709, 79.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (1745, 15.8%); Honduras (2239, 97.6%); Azerbaijan (2356, 23.6%); Peru (2461, 82.9%); Yemen (2620, 37.1%); Serbia (3193, 82.8%); Saudi Arabia (4045, 31.5%); Qatar (4762, 9.3%); Ethiopia (4938, 97.1%); Somalia (5000, 46.5%); Sudan (8681, 90.5%); Angola (9810, 98.8%); Central African Republic (12665, 61.9%); Greece (39588, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (29): GU (107, 76.2%); MS (109, 46.6%); MN (131, 55.4%); NC (139, 61.8%); SD (149, 79.6%); ND (252, 83.7%); MA (321, 16.9%); TX (358, 47.9%); VT (372, 23.1%); ME (424, 65.1%); NH (427, 12.7%); TN (552, 36.9%); PA (797, 68.5%); IN (1091, 84.3%); NE (1196, 96.6%); KY (1217, 96.6%); HI (1348, 97.2%); NM (5909, 93.9%); KS (6070, 96.4%); OH (6257, 77.8%); GA (8317, 98.5%); ID (10030, 95.2%); SC (10556, 98.7%); OR (11902, 99.5%); RI (14504, 99.7%); AZ (17943, 80.1%); NV (22847, 92.3%); CT (30666, 88.4%); FL (160588, 86.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.6%); MB (505, 86.3%)

When I started tracking these numbers, it was harder to find good COVID-19 data than it is today. Johns Hopkins University had their global data and American data, but it came out only nightly, inconveniently late, didn't include Canadian provinces, and lacked explanation of its frequent anomalies. For many regions of interest, I was able to find standardized Wikipedia pages that were updated often more than daily, and had interesting discussions about what was going on with shifting data criteria. The COVIDTracking.com project had better coverage of U.S. state. The CMAJ dataset had its own idiosyncrasies, but was in an easy to fetch and parse format, and of course had complete Canadian coverage. And for Ontario and Toronto of course, I have good open data. So I had been patching together the regions of interest stats from non-JHU sources, and supplementing them with JHU for global figures.

Across Ontario, numbers were down somewhat from 185 to 149 new cases. (Yesterday's 375 cases turned out to be a two-day total of 190 and 185.) Ottawa was down substantially, from 37 to 16, the lowest in four days, perhaps suggesting that they had finished counting all the people infected at a recent party; Peel, York and Toronto were relatively steady (at a level roughly twice that of two weeks ago), and there were no major flareups.

In Toronto, hospitalisations, which had declined daily since June 23rd (except for one single-case blip last month), soared back up from 22 to 26 in the last two days. Unresolved cases climbed from 465 to 507 in those two days. With one new case for every seven active cases, our R value is running close to 2.0.

Today's chart is one that I make weekly showing where the past week's cases were across the city. You can interact with it here.

The Toronto District School Board has delayed the start of school, already delayed a week, by an additional two days to September 17th, citing staffing complexities.

Stay safe.

2020-09-07

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (126HI→126HI), Israel (163HI→167HI), Spain (199HI→197HI), Brazil (306HI→353HI), U.S. (451HI→459HI), California (460HI→479HI), Louisiana (543HI→543HI), New York (1625HI→1625HI), Romania (54→53), India (57→56), Mexico (81→80), Austria (105→105), U.K. (121→107), Denmark (164→123), Iran (160→151), Indonesia (154→154), Italy (158→155), Norway (182→162), Turkey (188→186), Toronto (246→234), Canada (243→302), Ontario (385→385), New Zealand (941→1068), Malaysia (3671→1947), Thailand (3853→3854)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Denmark, Iran, Norway, Toronto

Worse: Spain, Italy, Turkey

The same: Romania, India, Mexico

Better: Alabama, Israel, Austria, Indonesia

Much better: Brazil, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (65→82, 4.6%), Poland (247→164, 76.7%), China (143→176, 0.8%), Australia (315→201, 33.0%), Japan (313→272, 51.2%), Malta (250→368, 56.9%), South Africa (943→950, 34.4%), South Korea (2474→1404, 67.9%), France (new→3976, 93.9%), Sweden (2496→5318, 81.5%), Germany (5245→381915, 25.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (8, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda, Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 100.0%); Eritrea (14, 25.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 4.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); San Marino (16, 4.9%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Belarus (38, 1.3%); Cameroon (46, 17.7%); Liberia (51, 9.3%); Vietnam (83, 40.5%); Cyprus (86, 48.6%); Barbados (87, 32.7%); Somalia (112, 49.3%); Kazakhstan (114, 14.8%); Niger (127, 3.3%); Iceland (128, 7.4%); Pakistan (130, 6.3%); Mauritania (131, 11.4%); Eswatini (146, 50.2%); Guyana (150, 79.3%); Philippines (168, 58.7%); Uzbekistan (171, 21.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (193, 7.4%); Armenia (195, 31.3%); United Arab Emirates (196, 44.5%); Sri Lanka (232, 19.6%); Gambia (234, 67.3%); Kyrgyzstan (238, 27.0%); Ghana (244, 12.7%); Afghanistan (247, 46.1%); Egypt (247, 48.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (281, 16.3%); Benin (293, 46.1%); Guinea (299, 48.0%); Bhutan (325, 91.8%); Papua New Guinea (335, 83.9%); Yemen (360, 37.1%); Oman (528, 16.9%); Malawi (539, 74.7%); Maldives (600, 94.4%); Suriname (607, 75.6%); Nepal (678, 92.5%); Guatemala (749, 48.6%); Saudi Arabia (753, 31.5%); Senegal (788, 85.4%); Equatorial Guinea (830, 18.9%); Mali (949, 69.7%); Rwanda (958, 96.5%); Colombia (992, 74.9%); Kenya (1096, 79.8%); El Salvador (1122, 79.7%); Gabon (1350, 43.0%); Bahamas (1762, 95.7%); Bangladesh (1783, 95.9%); Ethiopia (1791, 97.6%); Mozambique (1905, 98.3%); Andorra (1931, 55.0%); Kosovo (1983, 81.9%); Serbia (2648, 83.1%); Belize (2919, 97.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3454, 98.9%); North Macedonia (5034, 54.4%); Nigeria (7070, 65.9%); Bolivia (7537, 93.4%); Albania (8085, 98.6%); Namibia (11544, 97.5%); Peru (25578, 87.8%); Azerbaijan (34608, 24.0%); Qatar (50162, 9.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): VI (158, 35.3%); NC (170, 57.0%); VT (200, 22.8%); WY (490, 88.7%); PR (760, 91.9%); MT (814, 93.7%); SD (845, 94.6%); NE (857, 93.6%); PA (868, 67.6%); MI (1007, 92.7%); RI (1078, 96.0%); MN (1506, 67.0%); CT (2139, 86.3%); ME (2720, 68.8%); TX (2830, 54.6%); NH (2947, 12.8%); GA (7245, 98.3%); NV (12768, 93.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (21, 0.9%); NB (25, 4.1%); MB (259, 88.0%)

Japan had two days under 500 new cases for the first time since mid-July.

Ontario will be reporting today's numbers tomorrow, as their offices are closed for Labour Day.

Toronto however was open, continuing its Monday Wednesday Friday schedule, the holiday notwithstanding. One good piece of news about the city is that because it's younger people that are getting sick, our hospital beds have emptied back out to only 22 occupied with COVID-19 patients in the whole city, a number we haven't seen since late March. I think we're not likely to see the hospital numbers in our second wave that we did in our first, not only because it will be younger patients being affected more, but because the hospitals and nursing homes have better protocols worked out between them. Catching up on paperwork here earlier today, I filed an ambulance receipt for my mom's last ride back to her nursing home, on December 18th. Whenever I miss her, I remind myself to be grateful that she missed the pandemic by a couple of months.

Toronto says that we now have a palindromic 16,361 cases, which together with Ontario's weekend numbers for us mean that we had 65 cases today. That's more than we've seen in a day since July 6th, and is in keeping with media reports of large numbers of cases spreading at various types of unsafe private social gatherings and at most major shopping malls. We can still bring this under control now, but it would involve closing restaurants, bars, a lot of stores, and banning large gatherings again. Or we can wait for more people to get sick and die, and then lock down. We have 465 active cases now in Toronto, up from 371 a week ago. Our R value is somewhere in the 1.5~2.0 range, and will get worse, so now would be a good time to stock up on supplies.

Today's chart is the one that shows active cases by time in each American state and territory. Starting at the bottom with California, Florida, New York, Georgia and Illinois are the three quarters that are worse off this week than last; toward the top starting with Texas, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee and Louisiana are the ones that are doing a little better. If Ontario were a state, it would rank between D.C. and Guam. If Canada were a state, it would rank between Arizona and Delaware.

Stay safe.

2020-09-06

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (126HI→126HI), Israel (171HI→163HI), Spain (199HI→199HI), Brazil (303HI→306HI), U.S. (448HI→451HI), California (460HI→460HI), Louisiana (543HI→543HI), New York (1633HI→1625HI), France (37→33), Romania (56→54), India (58→57), Mexico (81→81), Austria (106→105), U.K. (135→121), Indonesia (156→154), Italy (157→158), Iran (160→160), Denmark (164→164), Norway (182→182), Turkey (189→188), Canada (252→243), Toronto (246→246), Ontario (404→385), Thailand (4707→3853)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, France, U.K., Canada

Worse: Romania, Indonesia

The same: India, Austria, Turkey

Better: Alabama, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Italy, Iran, Denmark, Norway, Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (71→65, 4.8%), China (152→143, 0.8%), New Zealand (132→205, 12.5%), Poland (965→247, 84.6%), Malta (180→250, 57.1%), Japan (296→313, 52.2%), Australia (237→315, 34.1%), South Africa (336→943, 35.1%), South Korea (new→2474, 68.4%), Sweden (2691→2496, 81.7%), Malaysia (new→3434, 5.8%), Germany (1407→5245, 24.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (81): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (9, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Belarus (14, 0.5%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Eritrea (14, 25.4%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 4.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tajikistan (14, 60.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Taiwan (28, 4.5%); Equatorial Guinea (37, 18.9%); Barbados (47, 32.7%); Cameroon (49, 17.7%); Chad (67, 10.8%); Mauritania (72, 11.5%); Cyprus (88, 48.2%); Vietnam (88, 42.6%); Somalia (92, 46.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (100, 7.4%); Ghana (104, 12.7%); Niger (127, 3.3%); Guyana (152, 83.4%); Guinea (176, 44.8%); Iceland (176, 8.0%); Kazakhstan (183, 16.5%); Eswatini (188, 51.0%); Armenia (216, 32.4%); Monaco (217, 51.0%); Kyrgyzstan (227, 27.9%); Bhutan (235, 91.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (236, 16.8%); Egypt (269, 50.2%); Yemen (300, 36.9%); Liberia (303, 13.3%); Gambia (364, 75.2%); Afghanistan (377, 48.8%); Gabon (392, 43.0%); Oman (392, 16.5%); Sri Lanka (466, 20.2%); Malawi (491, 75.8%); Finland (537, 26.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (588, 15.1%); Bahamas (655, 94.4%); Saudi Arabia (737, 31.8%); Uzbekistan (827, 22.8%); North Macedonia (842, 54.3%); Suriname (879, 80.7%); El Salvador (937, 80.2%); Mozambique (964, 94.7%); Kenya (1095, 80.6%); Maldives (1238, 95.0%); Nigeria (1553, 65.9%); Bolivia (1643, 93.4%); Senegal (1719, 86.2%); Colombia (1906, 77.3%); Ethiopia (2181, 97.7%); Guatemala (2570, 50.6%); Albania (2666, 98.1%); Peru (2779, 88.5%); Serbia (2787, 83.3%); Nepal (3118, 97.1%); Russia (3126, 69.7%); Bangladesh (4194, 97.7%); Togo (4614, 94.1%); Qatar (5271, 9.3%); Chile (5615, 19.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (8602, 98.2%); Haiti (9203, 74.2%); Belize (26752, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): TN (57, 41.7%); VI (67, 32.2%); VT (261, 23.8%); WY (358, 88.7%); PR (539, 89.7%); MA (631, 20.0%); MT (684, 91.4%); MI (736, 89.1%); TX (763, 53.3%); RI (1297, 96.4%); NV (5028, 93.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.6%); PE (14, 15.0%); NB (25, 4.1%); MB (257, 87.4%)

The United Kingdom reported 2,988 new cases today, the largest single-day number since May, and the first time it exceeded 2,000 since June. The U.K. Health Secretary blamed young people and asked for more social distancing, but said that reopened schools have nothing to do with the uptick, and that workplaces are secure. It seems likely that the number of cases is substantially underreported, as screening is running at capacity. Although the increase was reportedly due to broad increases across the country and not in any specific locations, a leaked governmental public health analysis suggested that expectations of the success of current measures were unrealistic given the possibility that "in some areas the infection is now endemic".

India set a new record for new daily cases at 90,632, and shows no signs of slowing exponential growth. By way of comparison, the highest number the Americans have had so far was about 75,000. India should easily overtake Brazil tomorrow in cumulative cases to date.

Ontario reported that there were 49 new cases in Toronto today, the most since early July. The province itself had 158 new cases, the second-highest number since late July. The distribution was nearly identical to yesterday, with 21 cases in Ottawa, 44 in Peel and 16 in York making up most of the rest of the cases. Looking week-on-week regionally, the North West has had another week free of COVID-19; the North East continues to have a few cases a week; the East has run about 20 cases a day for the last three weeks; the Central East has risen weekly from 25 to 32, 39, and now 63 new cases daily; Toronto had 25 new cases per day two weeks ago, 32 last week and now 39 (so it looks like we're running a week behind our surroundings); the South and Central West combined continue to drop 30, 20, 18.

Today's chart shows active cases as a proportion of population and its rate of change, and shows the same chart from last week for comparison.

Stay safe.

2020-09-05

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (113HI→113HI), Israel (169HI→157HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), U.S. (477HI→428HI), California (509HI→456HI), New York (1561HI→1540HI), France (32→32), Romania (52→50), India (60→57), Mexico (85→76), Austria (99→89), U.K. (150→127), Italy (158→139), Denmark (143→143), Indonesia (152→150), Iran (166→152), Norway (158→167), Turkey (190→187), Toronto (247→224), Canada (254→268), South Korea (292→318), Ontario (407→367), Thailand (3820→3461), Malaysia (2937→3575)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Mexico, Austria, U.K., Italy, Iran, Toronto

Worse: Romania, India, Indonesia, Turkey

Better: Alabama, Spain, France, Denmark, Norway, Canada, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (71, no new data, 5.2%), New Zealand (132, no new data, 12.1%), China (152, no new data, 0.9%), Louisiana (187→158, 27.9%), Malta (180, no new data, 58.1%), Australia (237, no new data, 35.1%), Japan (296, no new data, 54.6%), South Africa (336, no new data, 36.1%), Poland (965, no new data, 95.0%), Germany (1407, no new data, 24.9%), Brazil (1732, no new data, 83.9%), Sweden (2691, no new data, 82.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (10, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burkina Faso (14, 79.4%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 25.4%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 13.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 4.3%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Belarus (27, 1.2%); Taiwan (28, 4.5%); Chad (30, 8.0%); Equatorial Guinea (38, 18.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (58, 7.1%); Cabo Verde (64, 58.6%); Cameroon (78, 17.7%); Somalia (92, 46.7%); Barbados (93, 34.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (93, 15.8%); Ghana (106, 12.7%); Vietnam (110, 49.3%); Mauritania (122, 12.5%); Niger (127, 3.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (129, 16.1%); Kazakhstan (132, 17.5%); Yemen (132, 37.4%); Guinea (165, 44.8%); Gambia (167, 73.5%); Armenia (198, 35.5%); North Macedonia (215, 53.6%); Monaco (217, 51.0%); Kyrgyzstan (229, 28.8%); Eswatini (232, 52.3%); Egypt (286, 52.6%); Bahamas (322, 90.9%); Bhutan (325, 91.8%); Peru (370, 84.6%); Oman (380, 16.5%); Gabon (392, 43.0%); Togo (467, 93.0%); Malawi (510, 77.8%); Iceland (515, 8.8%); Afghanistan (578, 51.3%); Chile (805, 19.0%); El Salvador (818, 80.8%); Sudan (848, 90.8%); Saudi Arabia (858, 31.8%); Nigeria (923, 65.5%); Latvia (937, 45.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (991, 96.2%); Mali (999, 68.4%); Bolivia (1070, 93.6%); Dominican Republic (1091, 71.2%); Kenya (1231, 81.5%); Albania (1248, 97.2%); Finland (1383, 25.0%); Colombia (1604, 77.8%); Bangladesh (1904, 97.5%); Suriname (2013, 80.0%); Russia (2066, 69.8%); Uzbekistan (2563, 23.8%); Ethiopia (3442, 97.9%); Serbia (4368, 83.8%); Papua New Guinea (5037, 89.0%); Guatemala (6033, 51.4%); Qatar (6295, 9.4%); Senegal (7311, 87.6%); Panama (67028, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): VI (32, 30.5%); MA (49, 19.1%); TN (52, 39.8%); WY (280, 86.6%); VT (454, 24.6%); MT (534, 87.8%); TX (676, 54.7%); MI (1115, 89.1%); PR (1543, 91.1%); RI (2002, 97.5%); NV (2723, 92.5%); FL (23923, 86.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (51, 1.1%); MB (373, 91.0%)

No new data on Alabama, Louisiana or Sweden's COVID-19 Wikipedia pages, from whence I get most of the region-of-interest data. Also apparently no JHU data yet for the day, because I'm posting a little early tonight.

India broke four million cumulative confirmed or probable cases today, and will overtake Brazil on Tuesday and climb into second place worldwide behind the United States.

Ontario reported 169 new cases today, and its active cases rose 63 to 1,345 according to provincial statistics, a level last seen on July 30th. Continuing recent trends, the most cases in the province were in Peel (46), followed by Toronto (42), and Ottawa (30, highest since August 20th). York was the only other region in the double digits at 19 (highest since August 1st).

Today's chart updates one from two weeks ago, showing which regions in Ontario are changing week-on-week per capita. That is, it shows what the number of new cases was in the past week per capita, and the difference compared to the previous week, with the latter being used to colour the choropleth. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-09-04

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (113HI→113HI), Israel (144HI→169HI), Spain (137HI→193HI), U.S. (495HI→477HI), California (509HI→509HI), New York (1778HI→1561HI), France (46→32), Romania (59→52), India (61→60), Mexico (85→85), Austria (106→99), Denmark (194→143), U.K. (150→150), Indonesia (157→152), Italy (184→158), Norway (158→158), Iran (166→166), Turkey (190→190), Toronto (253→247), Canada (216→254), South Korea (274→292), Ontario (435→407), Malaysia (3302→2937), Thailand (4534→3820)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Romania, Austria, Denmark, Indonesia, Italy, Toronto

The same: India

Better: Alabama, Mexico, U.K., Norway, Iran, Turkey, South Korea

Much better: Israel, Spain, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (109→71, 5.2%), New Zealand (124→132, 12.1%), China (130→152, 0.9%), Malta (83→180, 58.1%), Louisiana (154→187, 27.9%), Australia (270→237, 35.1%), Japan (418→296, 54.6%), South Africa (346→336, 36.1%), Poland (8081→965, 95.0%), Germany (1383→1407, 24.9%), Brazil (754→1732, 83.9%), Sweden (9562→2691, 82.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (10, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burkina Faso (14, 79.4%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 25.4%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 13.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 4.3%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Belarus (27, 1.2%); Taiwan (28, 4.5%); Chad (30, 8.0%); Equatorial Guinea (38, 18.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (58, 7.1%); Cabo Verde (64, 58.6%); Cameroon (78, 17.7%); Somalia (92, 46.7%); Barbados (93, 34.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (93, 15.8%); Ghana (106, 12.7%); Vietnam (110, 49.3%); Mauritania (122, 12.5%); Niger (127, 3.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (129, 16.1%); Kazakhstan (132, 17.5%); Yemen (132, 37.4%); Guinea (165, 44.8%); Gambia (167, 73.5%); Armenia (198, 35.5%); North Macedonia (215, 53.6%); Monaco (217, 51.0%); Kyrgyzstan (229, 28.8%); Eswatini (232, 52.3%); Egypt (286, 52.6%); Bahamas (322, 90.9%); Bhutan (325, 91.8%); Peru (370, 84.6%); Oman (380, 16.5%); Gabon (392, 43.0%); Togo (467, 93.0%); Malawi (510, 77.8%); Iceland (515, 8.8%); Afghanistan (578, 51.3%); Chile (805, 19.0%); El Salvador (818, 80.8%); Sudan (848, 90.8%); Saudi Arabia (858, 31.8%); Nigeria (923, 65.5%); Latvia (937, 45.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (991, 96.2%); Mali (999, 68.4%); Bolivia (1070, 93.6%); Dominican Republic (1091, 71.2%); Kenya (1231, 81.5%); Albania (1248, 97.2%); Finland (1383, 25.0%); Colombia (1604, 77.8%); Bangladesh (1904, 97.5%); Suriname (2013, 80.0%); Russia (2066, 69.8%); Uzbekistan (2563, 23.8%); Ethiopia (3442, 97.9%); Serbia (4368, 83.8%); Papua New Guinea (5037, 89.0%); Guatemala (6033, 51.4%); Qatar (6295, 9.4%); Senegal (7311, 87.6%); Panama (67028, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): VI (21, 28.5%); MA (47, 18.0%); TN (49, 38.5%); WY (236, 85.6%); NH (277, 11.3%); TX (568, 55.8%); PR (998, 93.3%); NV (2645, 92.9%); RI (5658, 99.2%); ID (12699, 94.9%); DC (38398, 64.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 5.5%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (27, 1.1%); MB (261, 90.2%)

There were 72 new cases today in Peel, and 79 in Central Eastern Ontario (the area just outside Toronto), the worst it has been since the beginning of June. I am astounded that plans for reopening schools are continuing without regard to this rapidly building second wave. The situation is worse than the overall numbers for the province suggest, because so far this time, the pandemic is spreading rapidly in major cities: with 13 new cases in Ottawa and 41 in Toronto, we have 133 of the 148 cases province-wide today. If we look at the same areas exactly a month ago, they were 55 of 86 cases; a month before that 91 of 138 cases. COVID-19 is spreading quickly in densely populated areas, which will inevitably lead it to flare up in rural areas once we reach a critical mass.

Active cases in Toronto were up ten to 411, the first time we have been above 400 since July 27th.

Today's chart shows how new cases have accumulated in each of the major regions of Ontario since July 1st.

Stay safe.

2020-09-03

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (126HI→126HI), Israel (206HI→195HI), Spain (194HI→198HI), U.S. (440HI→450HI), New York (1844HI→1792HI), France (42→40), Romania (55→56), India (59→59), Austria (114→110), Indonesia (158→153), U.K. (169→154), Italy (167→167), Turkey (196→193), Norway (256→221), South Korea (200→228), Canada (275→264), Toronto (266→264), Ontario (432→426)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Austria, Indonesia, U.K., Norway, Canada

Worse: France, Turkey, Toronto

Better: Alabama, Spain, Romania, India, Italy

Much better: South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (80→83, 61.2%), Singapore (161→109, 6.5%), Thailand (118→111, 6.3%), New Zealand (369→124, 12.4%), China (124→130, 0.9%), Louisiana (156→154, 26.2%), Australia (188→270, 39.2%), South Africa (379→346, 36.1%), Japan (320→418, 59.1%), Mexico (492→632, 76.1%), Brazil (640→754, 81.4%), Germany (2251→1383, 25.0%), Denmark (718→1702, 31.1%), Iran (4529→2933, 86.4%), Malaysia (14→3514, 5.9%), Poland (new→8081, 98.6%), Sweden (50134→9562, 82.2%), California (18923→98603, 94.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (10, 0.0%); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (12, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.4%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 13.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Sierra Leone (14, 69.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (23, 9.6%); Taiwan (23, 4.2%); Equatorial Guinea (40, 19.5%); Chad (44, 9.0%); Cabo Verde (58, 53.7%); Cyprus (71, 64.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (76, 8.0%); Ecuador (85, 22.3%); Ghana (89, 14.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (94, 15.3%); Vietnam (122, 54.2%); Iceland (135, 8.7%); Niger (145, 3.7%); Yemen (153, 39.7%); Barbados (155, 38.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (166, 18.1%); Mauritania (166, 13.9%); Gambia (169, 76.8%); Belarus (176, 2.5%); Monaco (179, 50.2%); North Macedonia (193, 54.7%); Kyrgyzstan (263, 31.4%); Uruguay (272, 49.2%); Suriname (276, 79.4%); Armenia (281, 37.6%); Kazakhstan (302, 20.5%); Oman (304, 18.1%); Philippines (313, 77.3%); Gabon (325, 44.0%); Egypt (329, 56.7%); Finland (348, 22.1%); Togo (394, 93.6%); Eswatini (438, 61.4%); Peru (503, 88.0%); Malawi (504, 79.3%); Sudan (555, 92.2%); Guatemala (598, 51.2%); Switzerland (599, 29.6%); Slovakia (705, 95.0%); El Salvador (709, 82.5%); Mali (726, 71.8%); Dominican Republic (774, 72.4%); Bolivia (974, 94.0%); Papua New Guinea (983, 90.1%); Colombia (998, 78.8%); Croatia (1013, 94.1%); Nigeria (1106, 66.3%); Morocco (1204, 90.8%); Uzbekistan (1316, 25.6%); Saudi Arabia (1489, 33.4%); Haiti (1541, 73.9%); Qatar (1585, 9.4%); Bulgaria (1587, 80.9%); Guinea (1588, 53.0%); Afghanistan (1839, 53.7%); Kenya (2585, 82.8%); Serbia (2671, 84.3%); Iraq (3595, 98.0%); Central African Republic (4556, 61.2%); Bahamas (5114, 97.4%); Bangladesh (5766, 98.6%); Somalia (21323, 63.4%); Tajikistan (35203, 60.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): VI (35, 40.3%); MA (46, 17.5%); TN (51, 39.9%); MP (122, 84.6%); MS (230, 61.7%); TX (328, 55.5%); NC (329, 73.0%); WY (457, 94.0%); AR (612, 70.6%); MN (672, 68.6%); GU (1384, 96.0%); WA (1535, 95.0%); ND (1653, 98.0%); PR (2128, 96.9%); NV (2471, 93.5%); IN (3219, 84.6%); RI (8879, 99.4%); WI (252496, 88.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 5.5%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 10.0%); SK (111, 11.2%); MB (3129, 97.6%)

The United States exceeded its 6,000,000th confirmed or probable case today. India set a new daily record with over 80,000 new confirmed/probable cases.

Norway is building rapidly up to a second wave; its 1400+ active cases are double what they were two weeks ago. Austria's 3400+ are double what they were three weeks ago. Spain's 200K+ are double what they were five weeks ago.

Overheard at the hospital nursing station this morning: "All those people out there lined up to get tested so that they can hang out with their buddies. That's not how it works! You might not test positive now, but you could be positive tonight." On the bright side, there were a lot of people getting tested, and given how many cases there are in town it seems likely that at least some of them would test positive. Certainly, when I tried to take my dad into the hospital (for an ongoing issue; he's resting back home now), staff asked/herded/escorted us in a jaywalk down the middle of the road rather than go anywhere near or downwind of the queued testees.

Israel has finally decided to take action against its second wave. Its first wave had about 8,000 active cases at its peak, and its second wave is back down to about 23,000 from over 30,000, but better late than never.

Ontario saw another 132 new cases today, almost double what we were seeing only a month ago. It doesn't have to be this way, and the sooner we dial things back a bit, the fewer people will die in this second wave, and the better the chance that we will survive it as well as we survived the first. Ottawa was up to 22 cases, the Eastern Ontario Health Unit (also a part of the Eastern region) saw a recent record (since the end of July, when I started tracking every Ontario health unit) of 5 cases, bringing the Eastern region up to the most new cases it has had in two weeks. Peel set a recent record with 45 new cases, on its fourth day of increasing numbers. Toronto had 31 new cases, a little below average for the past week, but three times what we had only three weeks ago. Thankfully, the Central and South West are continuing on their gradual decline, and the North is on its third straight day without new cases.

Today's map is a weekly update showing how long it's been since there's been a sporadic case in each Toronto neighbourhood. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-09-02

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (126HI→126HI), Spain (194HI→194HI), Israel (220HI→206HI), U.S. (447HI→440HI), New York (1892HI→1844HI), France (42→42), Romania (56→55), India (60→59), Austria (114→114), Indonesia (163→158), Italy (166→167), Poland (162→168), U.K. (169→169), Turkey (201→196), South Korea (193→200), Norway (288→256), Toronto (299→266), Canada (279→275), Ontario (456→432)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Indonesia, Turkey, Norway, Toronto, Canada

The same: Romania, India

Better: Alabama, Spain, France, Austria, Italy, Poland, U.K., South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (215→14, 5.8%), Malta (82→80, 63.5%), Thailand (68→118, 6.4%), China (115→124, 1.0%), Louisiana (new→156, 22.5%), Singapore (140→161, 7.5%), Australia (216→188, 38.1%), Japan (406→320, 59.2%), New Zealand (new→369, 13.9%), South Africa (2555→379, 36.9%), Mexico (635→492, 73.2%), Brazil (18021→640, 80.7%), Denmark (386→718, 31.2%), Germany (new→2251, 25.1%), Iran (new→4529, 86.3%), California (2588→18923, 93.9%), Sweden (5417→50134, 83.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (87): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (11, 0.0%); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (13, 0.0%); Benin (14, 44.5%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Burundi (14, 72.5%); Cambodia (14, 9.1%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 14.1%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Mongolia (14, 9.1%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (25, 9.6%); Cabo Verde (48, 49.8%); Cyprus (65, 63.9%); Ecuador (70, 19.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (94, 15.8%); Vietnam (118, 56.0%); Iceland (120, 9.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (121, 8.6%); Niger (145, 3.7%); Yemen (151, 40.0%); Ghana (160, 16.8%); Eswatini (162, 59.7%); Mali (171, 69.2%); Belarus (172, 3.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (202, 19.1%); Kazakhstan (248, 20.2%); North Macedonia (267, 56.5%); Armenia (268, 38.2%); Uruguay (270, 48.8%); Montenegro (282, 37.1%); Uzbekistan (290, 23.7%); Kyrgyzstan (295, 32.7%); Oman (304, 18.1%); Papua New Guinea (306, 85.4%); Bahrain (337, 49.9%); Egypt (337, 58.7%); Switzerland (337, 28.4%); Philippines (347, 75.4%); Gambia (349, 82.0%); Luxembourg (407, 22.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (543, 65.7%); Malawi (558, 80.9%); Dominican Republic (564, 72.9%); Peru (634, 90.1%); El Salvador (720, 83.6%); Guatemala (743, 51.3%); Gabon (789, 46.6%); Morocco (804, 89.5%); Lesotho (809, 79.4%); Guinea-Bissau (822, 77.4%); Colombia (898, 79.4%); Moldova (955, 95.9%); Zimbabwe (998, 39.0%); Sudan (1029, 93.4%); Senegal (1115, 88.0%); Qatar (1244, 9.4%); Croatia (1265, 91.4%); Kenya (1580, 83.5%); Guinea (1588, 53.0%); Venezuela (1617, 68.2%); Serbia (1652, 84.5%); Saudi Arabia (1902, 33.7%); Nigeria (1932, 67.6%); Bolivia (1937, 96.0%); Iraq (2002, 97.7%); Togo (2329, 94.6%); Afghanistan (2444, 54.0%); Kuwait (2617, 48.1%); Georgia (2947, 79.9%); Somalia (3566, 63.4%); Bahamas (3876, 99.0%); Central African Republic (4061, 61.2%); Haiti (4116, 74.5%); Bulgaria (4479, 80.6%); Bangladesh (11674, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (21): VI (45, 44.1%); MA (63, 21.3%); MP (122, 84.6%); MS (211, 58.5%); NC (262, 67.9%); TX (312, 56.7%); MN (369, 64.4%); AR (417, 66.4%); NH (485, 12.5%); GU (1184, 95.6%); TN (1462, 87.3%); WY (1784, 96.0%); ND (2125, 92.3%); PR (2367, 96.6%); NV (2420, 93.8%); AK (3580, 99.1%); WI (3681, 88.1%); AZ (4356, 79.1%); DC (4767, 63.4%); RI (5356, 99.3%); ME (6229, 63.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (12, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); NB (21, 5.5%); SK (41, 9.0%)

One source reported that Singapore had had its lowest new daily count in six months, with only eight new cases. Impressive if true.

Ontario saw 133 new cases today, the largest number in more than a month, as we continue riding up the early stages of our second wave. There were no cases in the North for second consecutive day. The only new cases in the East were 12 in Ottawa. The 62 new cases in the Central East were more than we have seen there in more than a month as well, and the 43 new cases the province reported for Toronto were the most in almost two months. The 18 cases in the Central and South West were in line with a slow decrease in those areas.

Toronto's active cases have risen to 387, which is where we were on July 28th. I took a close look at today's published open data, which includes 247 new cases reported August 25-31, of which 168 were cases thought to have been acquired during that time.

I took a look at the 247 new cases in today's data dump (those reported August 25-31), narrowed down to the 143 that are actually thought to have acquired COVID-19 during that time. 61% of cases were female. The median age was 35, with quartiles at 25 and 47. 60% of transmission was through close contact, 20% in the community, 6% each through working in healthcare or living in institutions, 5% in ongoing outbreaks, and 4% while travelling. Today's chart shows where the 247 newly reported cases are across the city, not including the outbreak cases. You can see an interactive version of it here:

Stay safe.

2020-09-01

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (113HI→113HI), Spain (0→211HI), U.S. (422HI→457HI), Louisiana (509HI→509HI), New York (1903HI→1903HI), France (38→50), India (60→61), Romania (61→65), Austria (119→122), Indonesia (156→161), Iran (161→161), U.K. (164→164), Italy (164→181), Poland (170→188), Turkey (198→197), South Korea (230→230), Norway (265→249), Canada (263→268), Toronto (269→275), Germany (282→307), Ontario (429→438), New Zealand (531→605)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Norway

The same: Turkey

Better: Alabama, India, Romania, Austria, Indonesia, Iran, U.K., South Korea, Canada, Toronto, Germany

Much better: France, Italy, Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (279→68, 5.9%), Malta (132→82, 67.4%), China (106→115, 1.0%), Singapore (121→140, 7.8%), Malaysia (143→215, 6.1%), Australia (231→216, 40.7%), Denmark (242→386, 31.1%), Japan (395→406, 62.4%), Mexico (new→635, 73.0%), Israel (1160→788, 58.9%), South Africa (783→2555, 41.5%), California (2194→2588, 94.1%), Sweden (1623→5417, 83.4%), Brazil (2142→18021, 86.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (86): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (12, 0.0%); Benin (14, 44.5%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Cambodia (14, 9.1%); Cameroon (14, 25.8%); Djibouti (14, 0.2%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 14.3%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cyprus (66, 63.7%); Ecuador (69, 17.8%); Zambia (76, 15.2%); Uruguay (108, 46.9%); Mongolia (110, 8.2%); Eswatini (121, 59.4%); Uzbekistan (135, 24.1%); Ghana (137, 16.7%); Belarus (140, 3.1%); Montenegro (153, 35.0%); Vietnam (169, 61.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (172, 9.2%); Iceland (173, 9.1%); Mali (205, 70.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (214, 20.4%); Bahrain (220, 47.8%); Niger (284, 3.7%); Gabon (300, 46.6%); Oman (312, 18.2%); Kyrgyzstan (319, 33.7%); Philippines (345, 71.8%); Egypt (368, 60.9%); Guinea (391, 53.6%); Mauritania (409, 15.5%); Equatorial Guinea (419, 38.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (515, 91.0%); Kuwait (535, 46.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (543, 65.7%); Dominican Republic (544, 74.1%); Kazakhstan (557, 23.3%); Yemen (557, 45.0%); Georgia (571, 76.5%); Malawi (641, 82.9%); Colombia (721, 80.3%); Liberia (723, 75.2%); El Salvador (732, 84.7%); North Macedonia (778, 62.7%); Lesotho (809, 79.4%); Guinea-Bissau (822, 77.4%); Armenia (823, 42.7%); Senegal (917, 88.0%); Moldova (1127, 93.4%); Switzerland (1129, 28.4%); Kenya (1178, 84.2%); Saudi Arabia (1241, 33.4%); Qatar (1250, 9.4%); Serbia (1285, 84.6%); Guatemala (1299, 51.7%); Bulgaria (1311, 79.8%); Zimbabwe (1750, 37.6%); Morocco (1797, 90.7%); Sudan (1818, 94.7%); Venezuela (1980, 67.3%); Nigeria (2063, 68.4%); Suriname (2231, 81.2%); Sierra Leone (2367, 69.8%); Gambia (2967, 88.6%); Somalia (3566, 63.4%); Haiti (5681, 74.4%); Iraq (6001, 98.8%); Bolivia (17714, 97.7%); Peru (18167, 96.9%); Afghanistan (37003, 54.8%); Belgium (53916, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): MP (14, 84.6%); VI (189, 59.0%); MS (198, 55.4%); TX (317, 58.7%); NC (388, 64.6%); AR (422, 66.7%); WY (854, 95.7%); PR (1033, 93.5%); MN (1256, 67.9%); MI (1470, 97.0%); NV (2535, 94.0%); NH (2804, 12.3%); AZ (3675, 79.0%); TN (11574, 88.1%); ID (25860, 95.3%); GA (385391, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (13, 0.0%); NB (14, 4.1%); NL (14, 0.5%); SK (47, 9.7%)

Ontario numbers were remarkably steady overall for a third day, back down to 112 new cases from yesterday's 114, matching Sunday's number. Locally, this was due to Ottawa dropping from 21 to 8, Peel rising from 16 to 28, Toronto dropping from 41 to 26, and the Central and South West rising back up from 12 to a more recently typical 33.

The CMAJ reported 142 (10 per million population) new cases in Ontario today (they have always counted differently), putting it between first-place Alberta (164, or 38/MP) and third-place Quebec (122, or 15/MP). B.C. had 58 (11/MP), Manitoba 18 (14/MP), Saskatchewan 3 (3/MP), and there were no new cases in the North or in the Atlantic provinces.

Today's chart shows my regions of interest, plotted in the traditional phase diagram showing percentage of population cumulatively confirmed vs. rate of change.

Stay safe.

2020-08-31

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (283HI→126HI), U.S. (441HI→442HI), Louisiana (443HI→522HI), New York (2056HI→1892HI), Spain (2→0), France (46→46), Romania (55→56), India (63→61), Mexico (88→87), Austria (115→113), Iran (138→147), Poland (153→155), Indonesia (170→164), Italy (169→168), U.K. (178→169), South Korea (184→193), Turkey (205→202), Germany (234→238), Canada (316→292), Toronto (319→296), Ontario (468→463), New Zealand (620→620)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Spain, Indonesia, U.K., Canada, Toronto

Worse: India, Austria, Turkey

The same: Mexico, Italy

Better: France, Romania, Iran, Poland, South Korea, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: China (102→106, 1.1%), Singapore (126→121, 8.1%), Malta (244→132, 76.8%), Malaysia (112→143, 6.2%), Australia (444→231, 42.4%), Denmark (170→242, 31.3%), Thailand (610→279, 7.0%), Japan (345→395, 63.6%), Norway (756→549, 26.0%), South Africa (482→783, 41.7%), Israel (677→1160, 57.9%), Sweden (1529→1623, 82.4%), Brazil (new→2142, 84.2%), California (2123→2194, 94.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (13, 0.0%); Benin (14, 44.5%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); South Sudan (14, 57.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mongolia (19, 5.5%); Fiji (25, 24.5%); Cameroon (49, 25.8%); Belarus (54, 2.5%); Ecuador (74, 17.5%); Zambia (74, 12.7%); Cambodia (94, 9.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (106, 9.2%); Uzbekistan (119, 25.7%); Eritrea (123, 24.6%); Ghana (134, 18.2%); Eswatini (146, 61.6%); Vietnam (150, 63.7%); Georgia (160, 76.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (165, 20.9%); Montenegro (185, 35.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (185, 84.9%); Mali (229, 69.9%); Iceland (235, 9.6%); Bahrain (237, 47.7%); Sri Lanka (254, 14.8%); Lesotho (258, 86.3%); Uruguay (263, 53.8%); Philippines (306, 68.0%); Kazakhstan (318, 23.1%); Malawi (333, 83.3%); Mauritania (334, 15.5%); Kyrgyzstan (338, 35.1%); Egypt (370, 62.7%); Cyprus (416, 93.5%); Equatorial Guinea (419, 38.7%); Oman (469, 18.9%); Gabon (488, 48.4%); Botswana (540, 94.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (543, 65.7%); North Macedonia (586, 64.8%); Dominican Republic (687, 76.7%); El Salvador (741, 85.9%); Kuwait (758, 47.1%); Armenia (771, 43.0%); Colombia (792, 81.5%); Guinea (810, 54.9%); Senegal (813, 87.9%); Guinea-Bissau (822, 77.4%); Guyana (847, 96.8%); Yemen (967, 45.9%); Kenya (998, 84.5%); Liberia (1032, 76.0%); Bulgaria (1040, 81.9%); Saudi Arabia (1086, 33.8%); Haiti (1091, 73.9%); Venezuela (1158, 68.7%); Serbia (1182, 84.9%); Nigeria (1183, 68.3%); Gambia (1232, 88.6%); Morocco (1601, 91.2%); Pakistan (1870, 8.4%); Qatar (2455, 9.6%); Maldives (2717, 98.7%); Somalia (3566, 63.4%); Iraq (4232, 98.9%); Russia (4458, 70.5%); Peru (12837, 97.7%); Bolivia (22825, 97.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): MS (188, 52.8%); MP (233, 83.3%); NC (276, 58.1%); TX (346, 60.8%); PA (842, 63.9%); MI (1439, 94.6%); NV (2056, 94.4%); WI (2474, 86.7%); FL (3621, 84.4%); AZ (3703, 79.3%); ID (7665, 95.2%); WY (17809, 96.4%); GA (17888, 98.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 15.0%); NB (15, 5.5%); SK (32, 10.6%)

Spain will reach the 1% cumulative case count mark tomorrow, and is close enough that they may have done so already, depending on how their population has changed during the pandemic. Their new case numbers are up 9% from last week, and their active cases are over 180,000, almost twice their first peak.

Today's chart shows all European countries with at least 10,000 active cases. The two that are improving (Sweden and Belgium) are at the top; the rest are at the bottom, starting with the one with the largest number of active cases, Spain.

Toronto saw 119 new cases over the three days of the weekend, raising its official active case count from 350 to 371. Sustained levels of about 40 new cases a day is similar to where we were in mid-July. One big difference though is that our case fatality rate is running around 12% now compared to 4% back then, meaning that there are a lot more silent cases out in the community that aren't in the official numbers now than there were before. We likely have about 4,000 active cases in total, which is where we were at the beginning of July, and the number is rapidly rising.

We did finally see some public warnings about what is going to happen in the next few months, pointing out that the situation this week has been bad, but that it will get much worse before it gets better, even with better public compliance with safety recommendations. I had to go shopping in two stores today. At the Costco in Thorncliffe Park, there was no longer any control of customers coming into the store, there were too many customers in the store to maintain safe distances, and the area in front of the cashiers was overcrowded. Everyone was wearing masks though, and properly. At the Chinese supermarket on Gerrard, everyone was wearing masks properly and distancing themselves except for the usual one old white man who was yelling at everyone and not understanding why we were all trying to get as far away from him as possible. I think I'm going to have to be even more careful about shopping in off-peak times, and perhaps go back to ordering more things online.

Overall numbers in Ontario were roughly stable, up 2 new cases to 114. That's six more cases than yesterday in Toronto, five more in Ottawa, two fewer in the Central East, and about half yesterday's count in the South and Central West.

Stay safe.

2020-08-30

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (283HI→283HI), Brazil (303HI→313HI), U.S. (435HI→441HI), Louisiana (443HI→443HI), New York (2056HI→2056HI), Spain (2→2), France (46→46), Romania (57→55), India (64→63), Mexico (88→88), Austria (120→115), Iran (138→138), Poland (148→153), Italy (173→169), Indonesia (176→170), U.K. (195→178), South Korea (174→184), Turkey (210→205), Germany (231→234), Canada (316→316), Toronto (332→319), Ontario (466→468), New Zealand (683→620)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, Italy, Indonesia, U.K., Turkey, Toronto

Worse: Romania

The same: India

Better: Alabama, Brazil, Spain, France, Mexico, Iran, Poland, South Korea, Germany, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: China (95→102, 1.1%), Malaysia (116→112, 5.9%), Singapore (99→126, 8.6%), Denmark (151→170, 31.7%), Malta (332→244, 84.8%), Japan (374→345, 65.0%), Australia (274→444, 44.8%), South Africa (392→482, 41.4%), Thailand (610, no new data, 7.6%), Israel (462→677, 58.3%), Norway (2685→756, 25.2%), Sweden (1759→1529, 82.5%), California (1426→2123, 94.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (1, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 69.5%); Djibouti (14, 0.5%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); South Sudan (14, 57.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mongolia (16, 5.5%); Fiji (25, 24.5%); Cameroon (49, 25.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (52, 9.9%); Belarus (69, 2.9%); Taiwan (76, 7.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (86, 62.8%); Cambodia (94, 9.1%); Uzbekistan (104, 26.3%); Barbados (118, 42.3%); Eritrea (123, 24.6%); Lesotho (123, 79.1%); Ghana (133, 20.0%); Eswatini (161, 65.8%); Vietnam (173, 66.5%); Botswana (182, 85.4%); Uruguay (182, 53.5%); Zambia (204, 23.5%); Kazakhstan (221, 23.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (225, 21.8%); Guinea (241, 54.0%); North Macedonia (294, 65.2%); Montenegro (300, 39.0%); Kyrgyzstan (313, 36.0%); Gabon (316, 48.4%); Sri Lanka (344, 14.1%); Egypt (356, 64.5%); Bahrain (367, 51.1%); Mauritania (371, 16.3%); Mali (396, 74.6%); Equatorial Guinea (414, 38.7%); Cyprus (426, 93.8%); Finland (459, 23.9%); Malawi (461, 84.6%); Dominican Republic (480, 76.5%); Armenia (484, 42.7%); Georgia (484, 82.9%); Afghanistan (552, 54.9%); Kenya (574, 84.1%); Morocco (661, 94.0%); El Salvador (744, 87.1%); Iceland (810, 10.1%); Venezuela (828, 68.7%); Colombia (853, 82.8%); Nigeria (1092, 68.7%); Gambia (1108, 92.6%); Senegal (1140, 89.2%); Yemen (1145, 46.6%); Haiti (1226, 75.6%); Pakistan (1227, 8.4%); Liberia (1236, 76.0%); Serbia (1362, 85.6%); Russia (1421, 69.6%); Bulgaria (1437, 82.7%); Oman (1517, 20.4%); Sierra Leone (1896, 69.8%); Saudi Arabia (1930, 34.3%); Benin (2435, 44.5%); Qatar (3973, 9.6%); Somalia (4283, 63.4%); Netherlands (5874, 99.3%); Iraq (43287, 99.3%); Bolivia (218294, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): TX (524, 64.3%); PA (850, 63.6%); DE (909, 95.3%); ID (2134, 94.7%); MI (2256, 93.0%); FL (2474, 84.4%); UT (2656, 59.5%); AZ (3051, 79.5%); RI (3999, 97.9%); NV (4925, 95.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (1, 0.0%); NB (14, 5.5%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 1.1%); PE (14, 15.0%); SK (50, 13.1%)

Here's how things look across Canada. Tl;dr: poorly wherever there are a lot of people, and not so badly wherever there aren't.

British Columbia is doing very poorly: its second wave now has 982 active cases, well above its first peak of 717 four months ago, rising this past week at 2.5% daily.

Alberta continues its four-week plateau between 1,000 and 1,200 active cases, although it's spent the last ten days in the upper half of that range so it may be getting ready to drift further up.

Saskatchewan has brought its third wave under control, its active cases down to 42 today from its most recent peak of 321.

Manitoba's second wave has more than doubled it second first wave, with 462 active cases today, compared to the last wave maximum 193.

Ontario continues a very slow build-up to its second wave, with a week's worth of consecutive increases bringing us to 2,940 active cases from 2,736. The first wave maximum was 6,548, so we're not yet halfway back, but school hasn't reopened yet in most areas. Note that these are CMAJ numbers, which are significantly larger than the official provincial numbers; those have risen from 1,010 to 1,181 during that time.

Quebec, unless they change their statistical methodology again, is continuing an 11-day plateau in the 1,200s. Plateaux are bad things; almost as bad as new waves. They mean that transmission is not being effectively controlled, and new cases are steadily arising.

All three Maritime provinces have seen at least several days of active cases in the single digits. Newfoundland and Labrador got down to no active cases a few days ago, but has one now.

The North has no active cases; Nunavut continues to be the only region not to have seen any cases since the pandemic began.

This week's chart updates one from a couple of weeks ago, and shows how active cases compare in each continent. The steep rise at the end of the Asia curve is due to India's continuing exponential growth.

Stay safe.

2020-08-29

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (317HI→283HI), U.S. (425HI→435HI), New York (1762HI→2056HI), Spain (3→2), France (54→46), Romania (57→57), India (65→64), Mexico (87→88), Austria (113→120), Iran (136→138), Poland (144→148), Italy (193→173), South Korea (172→174), Indonesia (195→176), U.K. (205→195), Turkey (222→210), Germany (222→231), Canada (324→316), Toronto (355→332), Norway (354→380), Ontario (484→466), New Zealand (655→683)

The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last seven days) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I picked 1% arbitrarily as being an easily visualisable target that was unlikely to be attained, close to the point where exponential growth begins bending back down logistically. For reasons that have exceeded this value already, I show days to 40% instead, followed by the letters HI, that being the lowest estimate for when survivors might begin to enjoy some benefits of herd immunity. For regions whose active cases have declined in seven days, I show the number of days until eradication (defined as when active cases decay exponentially below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new case) together with the percentage remaining of the peak active cases.

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, France, Italy, Indonesia, U.K., Turkey, Canada, Toronto

The same: Spain, India

Better: Romania, Mexico, Austria, Iran, Poland, South Korea, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (208→208, 29.1%), China (115→109, 1.2%), Singapore (75→82, 9.1%), Malaysia (1232→235, 5.8%), Denmark (174→198, 32.5%), Australia (211→234, 46.0%), Malta (811→561, 89.3%), Japan (509→450, 67.0%), South Africa (403→376, 41.7%), Israel (707→756, 57.2%), Thailand (new→2118, 7.6%), California (2617→1572, 94.2%), Sweden (5946→3090, 83.1%), Brazil (2029→1433, 88.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (2, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Djibouti (14, 0.7%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tajikistan (14, 60.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (25, 24.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (49, 9.9%); Cambodia (50, 9.1%); Taiwan (58, 6.8%); Cameroon (59, 25.8%); Barbados (71, 34.6%); Belarus (97, 3.6%); Uzbekistan (106, 26.7%); Uruguay (117, 53.1%); Ghana (122, 20.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (126, 22.3%); Latvia (138, 41.5%); Zambia (155, 24.6%); Guinea (164, 54.0%); Botswana (182, 85.4%); Kazakhstan (182, 23.6%); Vietnam (205, 69.3%); Georgia (240, 80.5%); Lesotho (263, 82.1%); Pakistan (274, 8.5%); Kyrgyzstan (289, 36.9%); North Macedonia (304, 64.1%); Eswatini (308, 72.0%); Mauritania (310, 16.3%); Gabon (316, 48.4%); Armenia (345, 43.8%); Egypt (356, 66.5%); Equatorial Guinea (414, 38.7%); Malawi (459, 85.7%); Afghanistan (492, 54.9%); Nigeria (568, 69.0%); Dominican Republic (591, 78.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (613, 69.5%); Kenya (659, 85.7%); Gambia (661, 89.8%); West Bank and Gaza (676, 93.9%); Cyprus (710, 95.4%); El Salvador (729, 88.2%); Montenegro (749, 41.2%); Chile (816, 18.5%); Oman (835, 20.4%); Venezuela (896, 69.9%); Colombia (941, 83.9%); Haiti (1037, 75.1%); Sierra Leone (1073, 70.6%); Senegal (1111, 90.8%); Russia (1238, 70.0%); Morocco (1288, 94.2%); Serbia (1571, 86.6%); Bulgaria (1629, 81.3%); Kosovo (1761, 83.4%); Bahrain (1895, 55.2%); Benin (2435, 44.5%); Saudi Arabia (2548, 34.4%); Peru (2591, 97.6%); Sri Lanka (3034, 14.3%); Bolivia (3921, 98.3%); Maldives (4405, 97.4%); Mozambique (4892, 95.7%); Mali (5203, 81.1%); Suriname (8007, 80.0%); Liberia (9457, 78.0%); Belgium (116422, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): VI (283, 72.2%); TX (691, 66.2%); PA (803, 63.1%); MI (1147, 88.8%); DE (1391, 96.2%); FL (1513, 84.5%); UT (1623, 59.0%); ID (1848, 94.2%); AZ (2886, 79.9%); MA (3456, 39.3%); NV (3708, 95.5%); OR (11439, 99.3%); NJ (13297, 80.5%); WY (18037, 97.7%); WA (83102, 93.8%); GA (142886, 98.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (2, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 15.0%); NB (19, 8.2%); SK (25, 13.4%)

Starting today, I'm using seven-day (linear) smoothing instead of four-day smoothing, to help reduce day-of-week fluctuations in the days-to-N% numbers. The days-to-eradication have had the interval on which the rate is calculated extended, but are still susceptible to daily fluctuations and I should think more about whether and how to address that.

Active cases in Ontario leapt upward by 45 today to 1,148, the largest single-day increase since July 23rd. Cases are rising significantly in the Toronto area and Ottawa, but dropping quickly in the agricultural West. The North is occasionally seeing a case; today, there was one in Temiskaming; if you add them up though, they saw 7 this week across the whole of the North, 3 the week before, and 1 the week before that. Eastern Ontario is up from 76 two weeks ago to 119 and now 143, with most of it in Ottawa. Central East is up from 169 to 221 and now 283, of which 60% is Peel and 20% is York. Toronto is up 86 to 167 and now 208, including 41 today, the most since July 16th. The South and Central West are both down, from 266 to 212 and now 155.

I've heard two interrelated statistics that caused me some concern today, amid the growing public messaging trying to lull us into a false sense of security about the safety of sending our kids back to school even as our second wave is building up. They were that if a family member has COVID-19, you have about a 10% chance of catching it from them, but if someone riding your bus or subway car is sick, it's only a 1% chance. The concern that I have is that I am as certain as I can be that no one in my family has COVID-19 (no new cases in the neighbourhood in almost three months, and we are still all extremely cautious about transmission and going beyond government recommendations, so let's say I'm 95% sure), while I suspect that people who take public transit are infected in slightly higher numbers than average. Let's say that there are about 2,000 active cases in Toronto, including the ones that aren't in the official list. That's 1 in 1,500 of our three million population, and I'm guessing maybe 1 in 1,000 public transit riders. If my kid takes three public transit vehicles during rush hour twice every weekday for two weeks, and each subway car is at 1/4 capacity because ridership is down, that's 60 passengers * 30 rides * (1/1000 cases per passenger) = 1.8 exposures per fortnight, and a 1.8% chance of contracting COVID-19. If he stays at home, it's 3 family members * (1/1500 cases per population) * (1/20 chance that I wasn't as careful as I thought I was being) * (10% transmission) = 0.001% or 1 chance in 100,000 of contracting COVID-19.

And that's just getting to school and back. I've watched my aunts' nursing home, which is run by the City of Toronto by staff who are sticklers for regulations, go through three outbreaks as a result of staff contracting COVID-19 outside the nursing home, bringing it in with them, and being missed by screening. I am sure that my sons' high schools will be equally careful, but equally successful.

Ultimately though, I am grateful that we haven't been affected more directly by the pandemic, that we have the option of keeping our kids home from school to work alongside us, and appreciate the efforts of all those in the school system who are trying to do their best with limited resources.

Today's chart shows all the countries of the world, plotting their current estimated active cases against the rate of change. If the country is toward the right (like the United States at 1 in 172 infected and stable), a large portion of its population is actively infected. If it is above the horizontal 0% line (like Spain at 1 in 257 infected rising at 3%), its active cases are rising. If it is below that line (like South Africa at 1 in 819 decreasing at 3%), its active cases are decreasing.

Stay safe.

2020-08-28

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (361HI→361HI), U.S. (476HI→476HI), New York (2079HI→2079HI), Spain (3→3), France (57→57), Romania (58→58), India (68→68), Mexico (92→92), Austria (114→114), Iran (134→134), Poland (153→153), South Korea (183→183), Italy (189→189), Germany (195→195), Turkey (211→211), U.K. (214→214), Canada (283→283), Norway (330→330), Toronto (364→364), Ontario (517→517), New Zealand (565→565)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Better: Alabama, Spain, France, Romania, India, Mexico, Austria, Iran, Poland, South Korea, Italy, Germany, Turkey, U.K., Canada, Norway, Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (73→74, 9.8%), Louisiana (91→94, 29.1%), China (136→111, 1.3%), Denmark (125→148, 33.7%), South Africa (307→229, 42.2%), Australia (207→264, 48.0%), Japan (437→393, 68.9%), Malaysia (new→704, 6.8%), Indonesia (919→814, 91.5%), Brazil (799→1261, 86.9%), California (1357→1389, 96.0%), Malta (9565→1730, 94.0%), Israel (661→1805, 62.2%), Thailand (793→2512, 7.9%), Sweden (new→3638, 84.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (3, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Djibouti (14, 0.7%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Niger (14, 3.9%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (25, 24.5%); Zambia (47, 21.4%); Cambodia (50, 9.1%); Liechtenstein (50, 17.4%); Sao Tome and Principe (50, 10.2%); Taiwan (58, 6.8%); Cameroon (59, 25.8%); Barbados (71, 34.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (91, 23.6%); Latvia (105, 39.4%); Ghana (123, 20.9%); Uruguay (132, 57.8%); Guinea (143, 57.8%); Uzbekistan (156, 30.9%); Lesotho (159, 82.1%); Kazakhstan (181, 25.0%); Gabon (185, 51.7%); Belarus (204, 3.8%); Bahamas (215, 86.9%); Mauritania (216, 16.5%); Burundi (228, 70.8%); Georgia (257, 79.9%); Pakistan (268, 8.4%); Kyrgyzstan (292, 37.8%); Gambia (294, 89.6%); Vietnam (298, 71.8%); Madagascar (306, 19.9%); Botswana (364, 85.4%); Venezuela (392, 68.6%); Armenia (397, 44.6%); Egypt (401, 68.3%); Afghanistan (414, 54.9%); North Macedonia (431, 65.5%); West Bank and Gaza (509, 87.4%); Somalia (515, 63.9%); Saudi Arabia (519, 34.6%); Cuba (529, 61.1%); Malawi (564, 87.2%); Dominican Republic (629, 80.3%); Morocco (635, 92.8%); Slovenia (647, 60.2%); Montenegro (658, 42.3%); Nigeria (685, 69.8%); El Salvador (686, 89.3%); Kenya (687, 87.1%); Senegal (817, 91.5%); Sierra Leone (880, 70.6%); Suriname (931, 82.2%); Luxembourg (1075, 29.7%); Bulgaria (1172, 82.0%); Chile (1206, 18.2%); Iceland (1236, 10.3%); Mali (1298, 80.4%); Cabo Verde (1385, 89.5%); Haiti (1389, 74.8%); Serbia (1604, 87.2%); Mozambique (1741, 98.2%); Kosovo (1761, 83.4%); Colombia (1835, 86.1%); Bolivia (2155, 97.9%); Russia (2433, 70.6%); Benin (2435, 44.5%); Eswatini (2968, 76.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (3677, 19.3%); Oman (6459, 20.4%); Finland (6669, 22.5%); Qatar (9494, 9.7%); Cyprus (10769, 94.6%); Tajikistan (17557, 59.9%); Equatorial Guinea (32040, 41.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): VI (85, 66.8%); MS (217, 68.0%); NH (238, 12.4%); ME (257, 58.4%); MP (315, 84.6%); IN (421, 80.6%); DE (474, 92.0%); OK (727, 94.8%); TX (738, 68.4%); WA (1086, 92.4%); UT (1300, 58.4%); TN (1386, 88.4%); FL (1496, 85.2%); PR (1505, 97.3%); ID (2241, 95.4%); MA (2662, 38.2%); AZ (2951, 80.0%); OH (3030, 70.9%); NV (4132, 95.6%); NJ (6731, 80.3%); GA (8332, 98.1%); AR (15754, 72.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (3, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 15.0%); SK (23, 13.7%); NS (27, 1.1%); NB (42, 9.6%)

The following regions of interest saw the most new cases in more than a month today: Italy, U.K., Turkey, India, and Indonesia.

Ontario saw an increase of 33 active cases, with numbers increasing similarly to yesterday, and with generally similar regional numbers across the province.

Toronto saw 60 new cases in two days, and 196 in the past seven days. Two weeks ago, the week of the Brass Rail strip club incident, saw our lowest weekly total of 82 cases. Active cases rose from 298 to 350 in the last two days, from a post-peak low of 252. We are well on our way to an early second wave.

There's been a lot of talk locally about how young people are to blame again. The per capita rates of new infections have risen significantly in the last three weeks in the 20-39 age range (where they are highest), but also in the 60-79 range (where they are about half as high, but increasing as quickly).

Today's chart shows the seven-day smoothed ages of newly reported cases in Toronto, illustrating these effects.

Stay safe.

2020-08-27

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (361HI→361HI), U.S. (462HI→476HI), New York (2287HI→2079HI), Spain (3→3), France (70→57), Romania (66→58), India (70→68), Sweden (68→68), Austria (131→114), Iran (139→134), Poland (170→153), South Korea (186→183), Italy (197→189), Germany (230→195), Turkey (221→211), U.K. (214→214), Canada (309→283), Norway (321→330), Ontario (521→517), New Zealand (939→565), Malaysia (3862→4530)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Romania, Austria, Iran, Poland, Italy, Germany, Turkey, Canada

Worse: India, South Korea

Better: Alabama, Spain, Sweden, U.K., Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (69→73, 10.4%), Louisiana (92→91, 27.8%), Denmark (265→125, 35.6%), China (122→136, 1.4%), Australia (168→207, 49.6%), South Africa (367→307, 44.3%), Japan (566→437, 70.4%), Mexico (469→573, 74.3%), Israel (2734→661, 60.1%), Thailand (new→793, 7.5%), Brazil (706→799, 86.4%), Indonesia (984→919, 92.9%), California (1594→1357, 96.2%), Malta (1212→9565, 95.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (85): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (4, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Djibouti (14, 1.1%); Fiji (14, 32.7%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Mongolia (14, 9.1%); Niger (14, 3.9%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 4.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Liechtenstein (30, 15.2%); Comoros (51, 10.6%); Barbados (53, 36.5%); Taiwan (58, 6.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (62, 10.8%); Zambia (64, 17.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (97, 25.3%); Cambodia (110, 10.2%); Ecuador (110, 29.0%); Guinea (122, 56.9%); Uruguay (124, 58.7%); Kazakhstan (135, 26.1%); Suriname (167, 78.8%); Gabon (185, 51.7%); Mauritania (194, 16.8%); West Bank and Gaza (216, 83.9%); Burundi (225, 70.0%); Belarus (229, 4.2%); Pakistan (234, 8.6%); Ghana (241, 22.9%); Venezuela (245, 71.0%); Kyrgyzstan (288, 39.1%); Uzbekistan (292, 34.3%); Vietnam (309, 75.7%); Latvia (316, 44.8%); Eswatini (325, 75.8%); Yemen (325, 47.1%); Afghanistan (354, 54.8%); Senegal (424, 91.9%); Saudi Arabia (457, 35.1%); Somalia (515, 63.9%); Egypt (545, 70.3%); Bahamas (546, 90.5%); Armenia (556, 45.1%); Montenegro (605, 41.9%); Mali (616, 78.8%); Kenya (620, 88.0%); El Salvador (678, 90.5%); Kosovo (751, 83.4%); Dominican Republic (775, 81.7%); Colombia (789, 86.8%); Haiti (823, 76.2%); Zimbabwe (837, 37.5%); Philippines (885, 79.1%); Morocco (967, 93.5%); Cuba (1019, 59.8%); Bahrain (1041, 55.1%); Sierra Leone (1056, 69.6%); Nigeria (1169, 70.7%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1420, 95.5%); Serbia (1563, 87.8%); Qatar (2057, 9.7%); Lesotho (2067, 95.7%); Bolivia (2206, 97.9%); Benin (2435, 44.5%); Finland (2569, 21.7%); Peru (2573, 98.0%); Gambia (2700, 91.0%); Luxembourg (3834, 29.7%); Tajikistan (5012, 59.7%); Liberia (6309, 78.0%); North Macedonia (7002, 68.7%); Chile (7911, 18.2%); Belgium (9355, 99.5%); Malawi (15770, 91.9%); Oman (15887, 20.5%); Cabo Verde (26286, 86.3%); Equatorial Guinea (32040, 41.6%); Russia (67090, 71.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (29): VI (76, 72.5%); NH (198, 11.9%); MS (205, 65.6%); NC (330, 67.7%); MP (333, 88.5%); ME (350, 60.9%); WA (624, 92.0%); OK (677, 93.3%); AR (690, 70.7%); TX (726, 69.9%); WV (734, 83.1%); TN (748, 89.1%); PA (784, 67.2%); WY (863, 96.7%); DE (883, 95.3%); UT (1165, 58.9%); FL (1489, 85.6%); PR (2088, 96.6%); OH (2329, 70.1%); NM (3085, 91.9%); AZ (3087, 80.3%); ID (4073, 95.7%); MO (4484, 99.0%); NV (5117, 96.4%); NJ (9490, 80.4%); VA (10620, 97.9%); MA (15758, 37.0%); IN (43426, 81.7%); MD (45311, 99.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (4, 0.0%); NL (7, 0.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (27, 1.1%); SK (33, 18.1%); NB (42, 9.6%)

South Korea's active cases have risen to 3,932 with 441 new cases today. Their second wave has not yet reached the proportions of their first wave, but two weeks ago they had only 648 active cases, and that number has risen steadily day by day.

India's active cases have risen less steadily up to their current 725,991, and the country is still setting records weekly for new daily cases.

Indonesia and Romania also set new national records for new cases today.

Ontario's active cases rebounded back by 50 up to a recent high of 1,080 cases, after yesterday's unusually low new cases returned to a more typical recent range, and yesterday's unusually high recoveries dropped back down to normal levels. The Northwestern Health Unit saw two new cases in a day for the first time in several weeks; Toronto climbed from 23 to 36 cases (the most it's seen in more than a month), Windsor-Essex jumped from the two or three recent daily cases to 12; and Halton saw 6, also the most in over a month. The rest of the province was stable. A single-day naive estimate for the province's R value would be > 1.5.

I've been thinking that we would be okay-ish in Canada until school starts next month, but there are signs all over of pandemic fatigue. Although you see almost everyone wearing masks and distancing in public, and I felt reasonably safe going to the dentist today, the number of cases suggests that people are gathering in unsafe groups.

Today's chart is a new one, and shows what the median age of sporadic cases has been this month in each Toronto neighbourhood. Here is a link to the interactive version.

Stay safe.

2020-08-26

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.S. (421HI→462HI), New York (2197HI→2287HI), Spain (5→3), Romania (68→66), Sweden (65→68), France (70→70), India (68→70), Austria (134→131), Iran (139→139), Poland (158→170), South Korea (182→186), Italy (212→197), U.K. (201→214), Turkey (221→221), Germany (260→230), Canada (399→309), Norway (330→321), Toronto (369→364), Ontario (496→521), New Zealand (939→939), Malaysia (5046→3862), Thailand (6014→5551)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Italy, Germany, Canada, Norway, Toronto

Worse: Romania, Austria

Better: Sweden, France, India, Iran, Poland, South Korea, U.K., Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (65→69, 11.1%), Louisiana (new→92, 26.4%), China (131→122, 1.5%), Australia (175→168, 48.6%), Denmark (223→265, 38.0%), South Africa (494→367, 45.7%), Mexico (337→469, 71.2%), Japan (703→566, 73.0%), Brazil (2125→706, 87.1%), Indonesia (691→984, 93.7%), Malta (1047→1212, 95.3%), California (3020→1594, 96.6%), Israel (440→2734, 62.1%), Alabama (new→23829, 96.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (5, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Niger (14, 3.9%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 4.8%); Taiwan (14, 8.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (15, 32.7%); Djibouti (23, 1.7%); Liechtenstein (30, 15.2%); Zambia (40, 27.0%); Comoros (51, 10.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (74, 25.1%); Ecuador (78, 24.5%); Cambodia (110, 10.2%); Uruguay (117, 60.7%); Kazakhstan (123, 27.7%); Belarus (136, 4.4%); Equatorial Guinea (137, 41.6%); Latvia (147, 40.6%); Pakistan (147, 8.6%); Guinea (172, 61.2%); Venezuela (211, 72.0%); Gabon (233, 53.5%); Mauritania (234, 17.5%); Yemen (245, 47.6%); Vietnam (280, 77.3%); Suriname (293, 80.8%); Burundi (354, 70.0%); West Bank and Gaza (360, 88.0%); Kyrgyzstan (370, 40.5%); Uzbekistan (384, 36.5%); Barbados (399, 48.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (403, 13.5%); Guinea-Bissau (406, 73.1%); Saudi Arabia (411, 35.1%); Iceland (423, 10.4%); Eswatini (500, 79.6%); Bahamas (560, 93.7%); Somalia (566, 63.9%); Armenia (635, 46.1%); El Salvador (717, 91.8%); Montenegro (723, 43.0%); Kosovo (751, 83.4%); Kenya (752, 90.1%); Senegal (769, 92.0%); Nigeria (822, 71.3%); Madagascar (835, 22.2%); Egypt (920, 72.7%); Philippines (935, 74.3%); Colombia (978, 87.9%); Ghana (1012, 25.4%); Bahrain (1181, 56.2%); Dominican Republic (1219, 83.8%); Qatar (1225, 9.7%); Afghanistan (1249, 58.8%); Cabo Verde (1360, 84.2%); Luxembourg (1561, 26.8%); Serbia (1675, 88.1%); Mali (1715, 80.0%); Liberia (1893, 77.7%); South Sudan (2897, 57.5%); Haiti (3140, 77.7%); Bolivia (3635, 98.4%); Zimbabwe (4699, 37.4%); Peru (6445, 94.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (7603, 95.2%); Belgium (9921, 99.1%); Tajikistan (17522, 59.8%); Malawi (19150, 90.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (30): VI (77, 72.9%); NH (148, 11.8%); MS (201, 63.2%); NC (251, 61.3%); MP (333, 88.5%); ME (410, 61.5%); AR (558, 71.4%); MN (559, 56.9%); WA (592, 92.0%); PR (647, 93.9%); TX (693, 70.6%); PA (791, 66.7%); WI (1121, 87.1%); OH (1185, 70.1%); UT (1276, 60.4%); TN (1415, 88.8%); FL (1441, 86.2%); NE (1442, 94.9%); MA (1492, 36.1%); OK (1678, 94.2%); SD (1813, 96.4%); WY (2218, 95.8%); NV (2673, 96.0%); AZ (2874, 80.8%); ID (3060, 96.5%); GA (3770, 97.6%); NM (4263, 91.1%); MD (10350, 99.0%); MO (23649, 97.3%); NJ (38003, 80.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); YT (5, 0.0%); NL (8, 0.0%); NB (14, 11.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); SK (29, 18.7%); NS (51, 1.1%); QC (5021, 6.4%)

We had our first double-digit's worth of new cases (88) in the province of Ontario today in six days, which with a randomly high 115 recoveries gave us our first active case decline in as many days, down 29 to 1030. No cases in the North, the East was up from 18 to 23 (but Ottawa stayed at 16), the Southwest was up from 7 to 8, and all other regions saw significant declines. I think it's a little premature to think of this as anything other than a little random good luck, but it's nice not to have to report on a lengthened streak of bad news.

Toronto's active cases were up 5 to 298 over two days, the result of 58 new cases, 51 recoveries and 2 deaths.

Today's graphic shows how many cases there have been in each Toronto neighbourhood over the past week. The Facebook version shows an animation of the past couple of months of the same graphic, and there's an interactive version below.

Stay safe.

2020-08-25

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Malaysia (3856→-264HI), Alabama (361HI→361HI), U.S. (397HI→421HI), Louisiana (452HI→452HI), New York (1565HI→2197HI), Spain (5→5), Sweden (60→65), India (66→68), Romania (62→68), France (53→70), Austria (118→134), Iran (140→139), Poland (150→158), South Korea (182→182), U.K. (201→201), Italy (208→212), Turkey (234→221), Germany (245→260), Norway (330→330), Canada (311→399), Ontario (462→496), New Zealand (899→939), Thailand (9015→6014)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malaysia, Turkey

The same: Iran

Better: Alabama, Spain, India, Poland, South Korea, U.K., Italy, Germany, Norway

Much better: Sweden, Romania, France, Austria, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (86→65, 12.4%), China (131→131, 1.6%), Australia (74→175, 52.5%), Denmark (281→223, 40.0%), Mexico (new→337, 68.8%), Israel (558→440, 62.7%), South Africa (2262→494, 47.1%), Indonesia (3046→691, 92.4%), Japan (853→703, 74.6%), Malta (2151→1047, 97.3%), Brazil (82546→2125, 88.8%), California (153892→3020, 97.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (6, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cameroon (14, 43.4%); Comoros (14, 13.5%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 23.2%); Iceland (14, 10.7%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 1.8%); Seychelles (14, 6.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (15, 32.7%); Cambodia (17, 11.4%); Mongolia (23, 8.2%); Djibouti (27, 2.1%); Zambia (74, 29.5%); Ecuador (77, 22.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (90, 28.7%); Barbados (91, 42.3%); Kazakhstan (104, 29.2%); Liechtenstein (110, 19.6%); Belarus (118, 4.8%); Bhutan (122, 86.7%); Equatorial Guinea (155, 41.6%); Madagascar (168, 21.7%); Mauritania (184, 17.7%); Uruguay (185, 64.7%); Gabon (189, 53.5%); Venezuela (193, 73.0%); Vietnam (206, 78.8%); Suriname (226, 80.3%); Yemen (248, 46.7%); Pakistan (249, 9.8%); Uzbekistan (258, 36.8%); Zimbabwe (296, 33.8%); Montenegro (311, 42.9%); Guinea (345, 64.8%); Saudi Arabia (350, 35.0%); Guatemala (357, 45.8%); Luxembourg (359, 25.2%); Kosovo (384, 85.1%); Eswatini (407, 79.6%); Bahrain (432, 56.3%); Cuba (439, 64.4%); Somalia (512, 63.5%); Sri Lanka (519, 14.4%); Afghanistan (685, 59.4%); Kenya (740, 91.1%); Qatar (789, 9.6%); El Salvador (797, 93.1%); Colombia (915, 88.5%); Ghana (931, 26.3%); Dominican Republic (986, 84.7%); Lesotho (1145, 90.8%); Guinea-Bissau (1170, 76.5%); Gambia (1328, 94.3%); Senegal (1485, 93.8%); Philippines (1539, 71.2%); Liberia (1592, 78.2%); Burundi (1732, 70.0%); Serbia (1968, 88.7%); Central African Republic (2384, 61.0%); Armenia (2633, 48.8%); Egypt (2846, 75.0%); Kuwait (2940, 47.5%); Kyrgyzstan (2958, 41.9%); South Sudan (3753, 57.3%); Haiti (3783, 77.6%); Nigeria (4303, 74.1%); Bulgaria (9246, 83.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (17495, 94.2%); Belgium (29134, 98.9%); Malawi (252593, 92.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (26): VI (151, 78.6%); MP (170, 88.5%); MS (194, 59.6%); NC (270, 57.5%); NH (337, 12.8%); AR (382, 70.4%); TX (611, 71.0%); MN (760, 58.4%); NE (835, 93.6%); PA (844, 66.4%); UT (875, 60.4%); OH (1140, 70.3%); WI (1218, 86.8%); ID (1404, 96.2%); MI (1571, 96.2%); FL (1644, 87.5%); WV (1666, 86.1%); TN (1892, 88.3%); ME (2481, 63.4%); GA (3050, 98.1%); PR (3294, 97.5%); NV (3866, 96.6%); AZ (6942, 81.2%); CO (7827, 96.3%); MD (11009, 98.9%); WA (15558, 97.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); YT (6, 0.0%); NL (9, 0.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (37, 0.9%); SK (50, 27.4%); QC (468, 6.0%); AB (3520, 36.3%)

As most of my regions of interest have settled into fairly predictable states, I will be switching this week from the 4-day averaging that I initially chose as a reasonable compromise between noise and responsiveness to change, to 7-day averaging that should lead to less fake improvement on weekends and less fake regression on Mondays and Tuesdays. I've saved today's data in both 4- and 7-day format, so that tomorrow's comparisons can be based on 7-day, if I have time to make the code change tomorrow.

Ontario continues to drift upward, with what I think is an R value of somewhere around 1.4. Every day, about 10% of our active cases give rise on average to one new case, and given that they stay active for 14 days, that means each active case is spreading COVID-19 to an average of 1.4 new cases. As everyone knows by now, R values of 1 are bad, because they lead to the epidemic worsening rather than improving. And of course, next month when school resumes, things should get much worse, so now's a good time to get ready for the next lockdown.

We had 100 new cases, which is the fifth three-digit day in a row, which hasn't happened since we ended a four-month run of triple digits at the end of July.

In the North, we continue to see only the occasional sporadic case, and the only major population centre where R appears to be significantly higher than the provincial average is York Region, where it looks like it's a little over 2.

Today's chart updates one from three weeks ago, showing estimated days to one percent for the countries around the world, based on JHU Data. You can see it interactively here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-24

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.S. (379HI→397HI), Louisiana (452HI→452HI), New York (1565HI→1565HI), Spain (10→5), France (53→53), Sweden (55→60), Romania (56→62), India (63→66), Mexico (73→92), Austria (107→118), Iran (129→140), Poland (139→150), South Korea (169→182), U.K. (201→201), Italy (214→208), Turkey (235→234), Germany (247→245), Canada (393→311), Toronto (378→369), Ontario (493→462), New Zealand (893→899)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Italy, Canada

Worse: Germany

The same: Turkey

Better: France, India, Iran, Poland, South Korea, U.K.

Much better: Sweden, Romania, Mexico, Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Australia (74, no new data, 55.1%), Singapore (86, no new data, 15.0%), China (131, no new data, 1.7%), Norway (218, no new data, 22.9%), Denmark (281, no new data, 41.7%), Thailand (292, no new data, 8.0%), Israel (558, no new data, 63.6%), Japan (853, no new data, 76.3%), Malta (2151, no new data, 95.6%), Malaysia (2172, no new data, 7.0%), South Africa (2262, no new data, 52.0%), Indonesia (3046, no new data, 96.7%), Alabama (1255→3199, 93.5%), Brazil (82546, no new data, 90.8%), California (new→153892, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (74): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Botswana (14, 100.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 7.1%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Malawi (14, 92.4%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 1.8%); Seychelles (14, 6.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (15, 32.7%); Cambodia (17, 11.4%); Mongolia (18, 8.2%); Djibouti (52, 2.8%); Eritrea (56, 23.2%); Papua New Guinea (68, 70.5%); Belarus (69, 4.4%); Ecuador (75, 21.3%); Kazakhstan (100, 31.0%); Barbados (118, 42.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (123, 33.6%); Madagascar (140, 21.9%); Equatorial Guinea (155, 41.6%); Suriname (182, 84.9%); Zimbabwe (198, 31.6%); Venezuela (213, 75.8%); Vietnam (215, 78.5%); Pakistan (229, 9.8%); Mauritania (244, 18.7%); Yemen (276, 46.9%); Eswatini (324, 77.1%); Uruguay (327, 69.0%); Bahrain (354, 55.3%); Ghana (358, 27.1%); Iceland (368, 10.5%); Kosovo (384, 85.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (399, 65.5%); Montenegro (438, 44.3%); Afghanistan (544, 60.3%); Angola (547, 91.1%); Uzbekistan (579, 38.6%); Saudi Arabia (749, 37.6%); Colombia (773, 88.5%); Bhutan (775, 95.6%); West Bank and Gaza (775, 94.2%); South Sudan (952, 56.9%); El Salvador (966, 94.6%); Gabon (1030, 61.3%); Qatar (1085, 9.8%); Philippines (1157, 66.5%); Liberia (1191, 77.8%); Dominican Republic (1369, 86.0%); Kenya (1431, 92.4%); Guatemala (1480, 49.3%); Senegal (1795, 95.6%); Kuwait (1865, 48.7%); Serbia (2004, 89.4%); Central African Republic (2178, 61.0%); Haiti (2643, 76.7%); Kyrgyzstan (3479, 42.8%); Russia (3883, 72.0%); Oman (4287, 20.5%); Armenia (4671, 49.0%); Panama (15643, 93.7%); Egypt (30392, 76.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): NH (14, 13.8%); MP (170, 88.5%); NC (313, 53.5%); TX (713, 73.1%); UT (726, 60.2%); MI (728, 93.2%); NE (778, 93.9%); PA (879, 66.1%); WI (947, 86.8%); WV (1000, 87.4%); AR (1325, 73.0%); ID (1461, 97.1%); FL (1837, 88.2%); OH (2200, 71.9%); AZ (3508, 81.3%); GA (4133, 98.7%); NV (7422, 96.6%); SC (40610, 92.0%); CO (59712, 96.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (7, 0.0%); NL (10, 0.0%); PE (14, 40.0%); SK (51, 30.5%); QC (744, 6.2%)

We had a fourth straight day of at least 100 new cases a day in Ontario, for the first time since July 28th. The 105 today was the lowest though in the last four days, and was down from yesterday's 115. Our new cases per active case were at 11.5%, or more than half above the equilibrium level. There were no cases in the North; all 24 Eastern cases were in Ottawa; Central East cases were down to 34 from 48; Toronto up to 30 from 20; Southwest down to 9 from 20; Central West down to 8 from 14.

Toronto's active cases rose by three over the weekend to 293, continuing a very slow but constant upward creep that started on August 14th at 252.

British Columbia's active cases are on a 25-day increasing streak, from 251 to 913 (up from 824 yesterday). Alberta's 1172 is up 28 from yesterday, but within the 1000-1200 band where their numbers have been plateauing for the last 20 days. Saskatchewan continues its 8-day downward trend from 192 back into double digits with today's 98. Quebec has been in the 1200s for the past five days, drifting mostly downward. The Atlantic provinces are all in the single digits, with Newfoundland and Labrador on its fourth day with no active cases. No active cases in the North now for a week.

Today's chart shows all of my countries of interest, plotting their current estimates active changes vs. their rate of change.

Stay safe.

2020-08-23

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (367HI→231HI), Brazil (252HI→298HI), U.S. (390HI→379HI), Louisiana (452HI→452HI), New York (1647HI→1565HI), Spain (10→10), France (57→53), Romania (51→56), India (64→63), Mexico (73→73), Austria (101→107), Iran (129→129), Poland (131→139), South Korea (180→169), Malta (145→193), U.K. (212→201), Italy (250→214), Turkey (231→235), Germany (205→247), Toronto (378→378), Ontario (508→493), New Zealand (893→893)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, France, South Korea, U.K., Italy

The same: India

Better: Spain, Mexico, Austria, Iran, Poland, Turkey

Much better: Brazil, Romania, Malta, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Australia (85→85, 59.2%), Singapore (110→90, 16.1%), China (115→100, 1.8%), Thailand (199→197, 7.7%), Norway (331→262, 22.3%), Malaysia (143→492, 7.0%), Denmark (283→654, 45.8%), Israel (596→793, 64.1%), South Africa (469→995, 51.8%), Alabama (new→1255, 92.6%), Canada (new→2230, 14.2%), Indonesia (2310→2399, 97.5%), Japan (1114→2522, 77.3%), Sweden (new→140040, 84.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Holy See (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (1, 0.0%); Grenada (8, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Botswana (14, 100.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 7.1%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (15, 11.4%); Fiji (15, 32.7%); Mongolia (23, 9.1%); Eritrea (56, 23.2%); Papua New Guinea (60, 67.9%); Belarus (65, 4.8%); Taiwan (66, 8.7%); Zambia (66, 27.3%); Madagascar (88, 21.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (119, 35.2%); Kazakhstan (146, 34.9%); Pakistan (159, 10.2%); Djibouti (195, 3.7%); Ghana (199, 26.2%); Equatorial Guinea (219, 41.6%); Montenegro (237, 44.0%); Iceland (253, 10.2%); Gabon (260, 61.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (286, 14.2%); Mauritania (323, 19.4%); Vietnam (352, 82.5%); Uzbekistan (384, 38.6%); Uruguay (486, 71.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (503, 65.5%); Bahrain (541, 57.0%); Kosovo (543, 87.4%); Venezuela (634, 83.3%); Afghanistan (678, 61.1%); Bhutan (775, 95.6%); Guinea-Bissau (830, 76.5%); Chile (938, 18.3%); Liberia (1012, 78.3%); Bulgaria (1126, 82.8%); El Salvador (1149, 95.9%); Dominican Republic (1211, 86.4%); Armenia (1288, 48.3%); Panama (1406, 91.7%); Russia (1474, 71.4%); Qatar (1489, 9.9%); South Sudan (1505, 57.2%); Yemen (1518, 50.9%); North Macedonia (1530, 69.1%); Zimbabwe (1646, 38.9%); Saudi Arabia (1682, 38.6%); Colombia (1768, 92.5%); Serbia (2070, 90.0%); Central African Republic (2178, 61.0%); Suriname (2230, 94.0%); Somalia (2309, 67.6%); Oman (2518, 20.5%); Azerbaijan (3582, 20.2%); Cuba (3642, 61.5%); Guatemala (5997, 50.3%); Kuwait (6183, 48.5%); Malawi (7673, 92.1%); Angola (9635, 94.9%); Kenya (12708, 93.9%); Kyrgyzstan (14433, 44.4%); West Bank and Gaza (46318, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): MP (179, 92.3%); NH (530, 13.5%); MI (588, 90.3%); AR (762, 74.6%); TX (765, 74.8%); UT (863, 60.9%); PA (1060, 70.8%); WI (1195, 88.1%); OH (1252, 71.4%); ID (1278, 96.6%); FL (1747, 88.6%); NE (2196, 96.0%); RI (2518, 97.5%); AZ (2740, 81.5%); CO (3683, 96.8%); GA (3735, 98.2%); SC (11333, 91.9%); WA (37828, 97.6%); NJ (134216, 80.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (8, 0.0%); NL (11, 0.0%); PE (14, 40.0%); NB (40, 12.3%); SK (58, 33.0%); QC (415, 6.2%)

115 new cases in Ontario today, up from 108 yesterday, raising our active case count by 7 to 1,010. That's one new case in the North (in Sudbury); only 7 in Ottawa today (lowest in six days) but 5 more cases across the East; 48 new cases (up from 45) in the Central East; 20 in Toronto (the lowest all week); 20 in the Southwest (up from 6 due to 10 cases in Windsor-Essex); 14 in the Central West, same as yesterday. Our provincial new cases per activie case has been running a little over 10% for more than a week, well above the 7% equilibrium level.

Today's graph was going to be the CMAJ data for active cases in each province, but I'm dissatisfied with the significant differences between their confirmed case numbers and the Ontario government's numbers, dating back as far as April 1st, and changing significantly from day to day. Instead, it's an update on the active cases in the United States by state and territory, stacking from the bottom the regions that have worsened in the past week (starting with California), then above them the ones that have improved (starting with Florida). Within each tranche, the ones that have the most active cases (California, New York, Illinois, ...) are listed below the ones with the fewest.

Stay safe.

2020-08-22

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (220HI→232HI), California (321HI→367HI), U.S. (418HI→470HI), New York (2147HI→1647HI), Spain (12→12), Romania (61→53), Sweden (56→55), India (69→67), Mexico (85→85), Austria (118→102), Malta (29→106), Iran (131→129), Poland (160→144), Germany (187→183), South Korea (212→191), U.K. (242→223), Turkey (232→233), Italy (398→309), Toronto (487→378), Ontario (527→488), New Zealand (690→652)

Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last four days) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases. Starting on 2020-08-02, in regions where active cases are still increasing but more than 1% of the population has been infected, I show an estimate of how many days it will be until 40% of the population is infected, the point at which herd immunity might begin to slow down spread among survivors in the most optimistic scenario.

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Romania, Austria, Poland, Germany, South Korea, U.K., Italy

Worse: India, Iran

The same: Sweden

Better: Israel, Spain, Mexico, Turkey

Much better: California, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (83→89, 41.0%), Australia (473→95, 64.9%), Malaysia (140→142, 7.0%), Singapore (139→143, 20.5%), China (200→149, 2.1%), Thailand (14→199, 7.8%), Norway (new→236, 19.8%), South Africa (372→360, 51.9%), Japan (798→736, 79.1%), Brazil (724→976, 91.1%), Denmark (new→2089, 46.2%), Alabama (new→3814, 92.6%), France (new→3958, 84.6%), Indonesia (13482→10261, 98.6%), Canada (2657→15717, 13.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Dominica, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (3, 0.0%); Grenada (10, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Fiji (14, 57.1%); Laos (14, 23.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 1.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (26, 22.7%); Mongolia (36, 13.6%); Zimbabwe (40, 37.4%); Comoros (44, 13.5%); Sri Lanka (56, 15.0%); Taiwan (74, 8.3%); Papua New Guinea (83, 67.9%); Luxembourg (91, 27.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (107, 13.5%); Madagascar (111, 25.9%); Eritrea (115, 23.2%); Belarus (116, 6.3%); Niger (136, 3.5%); Burundi (156, 70.8%); Kazakhstan (162, 42.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (165, 18.6%); Congo (Brazzaville) (169, 70.7%); Czechia (182, 81.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (211, 41.2%); Gabon (234, 63.3%); Djibouti (243, 4.1%); Pakistan (260, 11.4%); Ghana (276, 27.2%); Vietnam (285, 89.6%); Yemen (308, 51.7%); Montenegro (353, 47.2%); Saudi Arabia (355, 39.6%); Kyrgyzstan (384, 42.5%); Angola (389, 92.6%); Eswatini (398, 86.0%); Chile (422, 18.2%); Panama (441, 90.7%); Latvia (450, 46.9%); Bulgaria (484, 83.4%); Sierra Leone (578, 71.0%); Azerbaijan (583, 20.1%); Dominican Republic (622, 88.5%); Iceland (649, 10.7%); Cuba (673, 68.7%); North Macedonia (770, 70.1%); Armenia (907, 49.5%); Guatemala (1001, 51.0%); Colombia (1112, 93.6%); Serbia (1192, 90.5%); Kosovo (1235, 93.3%); Afghanistan (1316, 62.8%); Uzbekistan (1631, 42.2%); South Sudan (1768, 57.8%); Somalia (1769, 67.3%); El Salvador (1858, 97.8%); Tajikistan (2345, 59.7%); Russia (2355, 72.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2714, 94.4%); Guinea-Bissau (2867, 78.4%); Oman (2935, 20.5%); Bahrain (3037, 61.0%); Suriname (5602, 91.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): MT (207, 79.8%); NH (277, 13.8%); WV (326, 87.8%); AR (469, 77.5%); OH (633, 72.9%); TX (644, 77.0%); TN (869, 90.4%); PA (986, 69.8%); WI (1168, 89.7%); DC (1181, 58.8%); UT (1586, 63.2%); AZ (2153, 81.8%); VT (2772, 22.2%); CO (3057, 96.8%); SC (3150, 92.0%); DE (3298, 98.8%); IN (3301, 74.7%); FL (4343, 90.2%); ID (5745, 99.0%); WA (7873, 97.6%); VA (11780, 98.6%); NM (11883, 92.0%); NV (29378, 97.7%); NJ (66440, 80.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (10, 0.0%); NL (13, 0.0%); NB (18, 11.0%); SK (92, 41.7%); QC (168, 6.4%)

Australia saw its first day with fewer than 200 new cases since mid-July.

Malta's numbers have dropped artificially because the European Centre for Disease Control have reportedly directed it not to count the bulk of its cases, who are migrants who have arrived by boat. I have been unable to find any sources for information about how many cases of COVID-19 there are in migrant populations around the world. Ignoring the vast majority of the cases in a country seems like an ineffective way to try to controll a pandemic, and I wonder where else this is taking place. It also pains me to have to call them migrants, because I have learned that they are not technically refugees until they successfully go through an application process.

The U.S. has begun construction of a fence along the U.S.-Canadian border near Vancouver. I'm grateful, but hope that it doesn't keep my Canadian expat friends from finding their way home.

There have been no new cases in Northeastern Ontario since August 8. In the Northwest, there was one new case in Thunder Bay on August 18th, and they are currently running about one new case per week. Ottawa had 37 new cases today, it's highest number in at least three weeks; Kingston had a new case for two days in a row, after going for weeks without any. There were a total of 34 new cases in the Central East district around Toronto, a little more than its seven-day average of 29. Toronto saw 25 new cases in provincial data, averaging now more than twice as many new cases a day this week as last week. In the South and Central West, total new cases declined slightly week-on-week from a daily average of 37 cases to 34.

Ontario active cases, not including yesterday's partial data, increased for the eighth day, rising from 891 to 986 over that period.

The Toronto District School Board announced today that they are postponing the start of the school year by a week, to September 15th, and redoing the aborted registration process for in-school vs. virtual learning next week.

The number of hospitalized COVID-19 cases in Toronto today rose for the first time since June 27th, from 49 to 50. Active cases increased for a second day, up 8 to 290.

Today's chart shows the date of the last sporadic case in each Toronto neighbourhood. I was wondering why real estate was moving so quickly where we live in Playter Estates-Danforth; I see today (touch wood) that we have now gone the longest in the city without a new case, since June 2nd. You can see an interactive version of the chart here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-21

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (220HI→232HI), California (321HI→367HI), U.S. (418HI→470HI), New York (2147HI→1647HI), Spain (12→12), Romania (61→53), Sweden (56→55), India (69→67), Mexico (85→85), Austria (118→102), Malta (29→106), Iran (131→129), Poland (160→144), Germany (187→183), South Korea (212→191), U.K. (242→223), Turkey (232→233), Italy (398→309), Toronto (487→378), Ontario (527→488), New Zealand (690→652)

Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last four days) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases. Starting on 2020-08-02, in regions where active cases are still increasing but more than 1% of the population has been infected, I show an estimate of how many days it will be until 40% of the population is infected, the point at which herd immunity might begin to slow down spread among survivors in the most optimistic scenario.

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Romania, Austria, Poland, Germany, South Korea, U.K., Italy

Worse: India, Iran

The same: Sweden

Better: Israel, Spain, Mexico, Turkey

Much better: California, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (83→89, 41.0%), Australia (473→95, 64.9%), Malaysia (140→142, 7.0%), Singapore (139→143, 20.5%), China (200→149, 2.1%), Thailand (14→199, 7.8%), Norway (new→236, 19.8%), South Africa (372→360, 51.9%), Japan (798→736, 79.1%), Brazil (724→976, 91.1%), Denmark (new→2089, 46.2%), Alabama (new→3814, 92.6%), France (new→3958, 84.6%), Indonesia (13482→10261, 98.6%), Canada (2657→15717, 13.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Dominica, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (3, 0.0%); Grenada (10, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Fiji (14, 57.1%); Laos (14, 23.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 1.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (26, 22.7%); Mongolia (36, 13.6%); Zimbabwe (40, 37.4%); Comoros (44, 13.5%); Sri Lanka (56, 15.0%); Taiwan (74, 8.3%); Papua New Guinea (83, 67.9%); Luxembourg (91, 27.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (107, 13.5%); Madagascar (111, 25.9%); Eritrea (115, 23.2%); Belarus (116, 6.3%); Niger (136, 3.5%); Burundi (156, 70.8%); Kazakhstan (162, 42.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (165, 18.6%); Congo (Brazzaville) (169, 70.7%); Czechia (182, 81.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (211, 41.2%); Gabon (234, 63.3%); Djibouti (243, 4.1%); Pakistan (260, 11.4%); Ghana (276, 27.2%); Vietnam (285, 89.6%); Yemen (308, 51.7%); Montenegro (353, 47.2%); Saudi Arabia (355, 39.6%); Kyrgyzstan (384, 42.5%); Angola (389, 92.6%); Eswatini (398, 86.0%); Chile (422, 18.2%); Panama (441, 90.7%); Latvia (450, 46.9%); Bulgaria (484, 83.4%); Sierra Leone (578, 71.0%); Azerbaijan (583, 20.1%); Dominican Republic (622, 88.5%); Iceland (649, 10.7%); Cuba (673, 68.7%); North Macedonia (770, 70.1%); Armenia (907, 49.5%); Guatemala (1001, 51.0%); Colombia (1112, 93.6%); Serbia (1192, 90.5%); Kosovo (1235, 93.3%); Afghanistan (1316, 62.8%); Uzbekistan (1631, 42.2%); South Sudan (1768, 57.8%); Somalia (1769, 67.3%); El Salvador (1858, 97.8%); Tajikistan (2345, 59.7%); Russia (2355, 72.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2714, 94.4%); Guinea-Bissau (2867, 78.4%); Oman (2935, 20.5%); Bahrain (3037, 61.0%); Suriname (5602, 91.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): MT (207, 79.8%); NH (277, 13.8%); WV (326, 87.8%); AR (469, 77.5%); OH (633, 72.9%); TX (644, 77.0%); TN (869, 90.4%); PA (986, 69.8%); WI (1168, 89.7%); DC (1181, 58.8%); UT (1586, 63.2%); AZ (2153, 81.8%); VT (2772, 22.2%); CO (3057, 96.8%); SC (3150, 92.0%); DE (3298, 98.8%); IN (3301, 74.7%); FL (4343, 90.2%); ID (5745, 99.0%); WA (7873, 97.6%); VA (11780, 98.6%); NM (11883, 92.0%); NV (29378, 97.7%); NJ (66440, 80.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (10, 0.0%); NL (13, 0.0%); NB (18, 11.0%); SK (92, 41.7%); QC (168, 6.4%)

Australia saw its first day with fewer than 200 new cases since mid-July.

Malta's numbers have dropped artificially because the European Centre for Disease Control have reportedly directed it not to count the bulk of its cases, who are migrants who have arrived by boat. I have been unable to find any sources for information about how many cases of COVID-19 there are in migrant populations around the world. Ignoring the vast majority of the cases in a country seems like an ineffective way to try to controll a pandemic, and I wonder where else this is taking place. It also pains me to have to call them migrants, because I have learned that they are not technically refugees until they successfully go through an application process.

The U.S. has begun construction of a fence along the U.S.-Canadian border near Vancouver. I'm grateful, but hope that it doesn't keep my Canadian expat friends from finding their way home.

There have been no new cases in Northeastern Ontario since August 8. In the Northwest, there was one new case in Thunder Bay on August 18th, and they are currently running about one new case per week. Ottawa had 37 new cases today, it's highest number in at least three weeks; Kingston had a new case for two days in a row, after going for weeks without any. There were a total of 34 new cases in the Central East district around Toronto, a little more than its seven-day average of 29. Toronto saw 25 new cases in provincial data, averaging now more than twice as many new cases a day this week as last week. In the South and Central West, total new cases declined slightly week-on-week from a daily average of 37 cases to 34.

Ontario active cases, not including yesterday's partial data, increased for the eighth day, rising from 891 to 986 over that period.

The Toronto District School Board announced today that they are postponing the start of the school year by a week, to September 15th, and redoing the aborted registration process for in-school vs. virtual learning next week.

The number of hospitalized COVID-19 cases in Toronto today rose for the first time since June 27th, from 49 to 50. Active cases increased for a second day, up 8 to 290.

Today's chart shows the date of the last sporadic case in each Toronto neighbourhood. I was wondering why real estate was moving so quickly where we live in Playter Estates-Danforth; I see today (touch wood) that we have now gone the longest in the city without a new case, since June 2nd. You can see an interactive version of the chart here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-20

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (276HI→237HI), California (252HI→321HI), U.S. (354HI→388HI), New York (1991HI→2147HI), Spain (17→12), Malta (26→29), Romania (66→65), Sweden (64→68), India (70→71), France (99→99), Iran (134→131), Denmark (120→137), Austria (130→138), Poland (166→170), South Korea (211→211), Indonesia (207→222), Germany (271→225), Turkey (244→242), U.K. (235→247), Norway (298→298), Canada (367→350), Italy (481→477), Toronto (626→487), Ontario (515→520), New Zealand (550→690)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Spain, Germany, Canada

Worse: Iran, Turkey

The same: Romania

Better: U.S., Sweden, India, France, Austria, Poland, South Korea, Indonesia, U.K., Norway

Much better: California, Malta, Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (new→81, 37.2%), Singapore (113→123, 23.5%), Thailand (475→149, 8.6%), Japan (501→169, 78.5%), China (267→264, 2.4%), Mexico (305→358, 74.3%), South Africa (230→425, 54.4%), Australia (626→835, 91.8%), Malaysia (new→1154, 7.4%), Brazil (690→5269, 91.3%), Alabama (4211→22689, 96.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Dominica, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (5, 0.0%); Brunei, Grenada (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Comoros (14, 5.8%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 47.9%); Fiji (14, 57.1%); Laos (14, 23.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino, Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (19, 25.0%); Mongolia (33, 15.5%); Zimbabwe (36, 39.6%); Sri Lanka (48, 14.4%); Cameroon (64, 39.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (79, 18.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (84, 15.1%); Djibouti (85, 4.1%); Madagascar (97, 29.4%); Uzbekistan (101, 42.4%); Ecuador (102, 30.9%); Burundi (104, 65.8%); Burma (106, 31.5%); Philippines (117, 64.6%); Belarus (120, 7.7%); Luxembourg (124, 27.8%); Zambia (134, 42.1%); Eswatini (162, 82.3%); Kazakhstan (168, 46.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (225, 69.6%); Cuba (229, 62.0%); Azerbaijan (238, 20.4%); Saudi Arabia (252, 39.6%); South Sudan (257, 58.3%); Pakistan (265, 13.1%); Czechia (305, 84.9%); Mauritania (349, 21.1%); Vietnam (362, 89.0%); Montenegro (367, 49.9%); Lesotho (377, 84.9%); Yemen (378, 51.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (414, 46.6%); Kyrgyzstan (455, 44.6%); Somalia (471, 68.5%); Togo (515, 88.8%); Guatemala (546, 50.6%); Maldives (631, 94.3%); Namibia (631, 94.9%); Dominican Republic (647, 89.6%); Sierra Leone (647, 70.4%); Kenya (677, 94.2%); Gabon (724, 69.4%); Chile (781, 19.1%); Armenia (803, 49.7%); Bulgaria (889, 85.5%); Angola (893, 95.2%); Colombia (1029, 95.2%); Panama (1055, 94.5%); Cabo Verde (1129, 81.2%); Kosovo (1154, 93.3%); Afghanistan (1220, 64.7%); Kuwait (1320, 48.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1452, 93.4%); Serbia (1693, 91.7%); Tajikistan (1957, 59.7%); North Macedonia (2418, 70.6%); Argentina (2426, 59.5%); Latvia (4721, 45.9%); El Salvador (5200, 99.2%); Moldova (6607, 96.9%); Malawi (8771, 92.5%); Russia (19998, 73.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): NC (132, 55.1%); MS (183, 66.5%); WV (222, 86.3%); NH (224, 14.1%); MN (289, 52.0%); AR (409, 78.4%); OH (553, 73.8%); UT (934, 63.7%); PA (1018, 73.7%); WI (1047, 91.1%); SC (1488, 92.3%); TN (1632, 92.0%); TX (1652, 79.8%); IN (1816, 73.4%); WA (1856, 97.7%); MA (2119, 34.8%); NV (2567, 97.1%); AZ (2781, 82.9%); DE (2862, 98.5%); FL (4108, 91.2%); MD (4238, 98.6%); OK (4840, 95.5%); CO (7591, 97.9%); OR (17855, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (12, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.0%); SK (115, 48.0%); QC (154, 6.7%); NB (159, 16.4%)

Toronto saw 46 new cases in two days, the first time it had reached that level since July 24. Active cases rose ten to 274, returning to where we were two weeks ago. According to provincial statistics, our new cases over the past week (143) are up almost 80% from the previous week (80).

Other areas in Ontario that saw steep increases week-on-week on at least ten cases were Middlesex-London (243%), Waterloo (150%), Huron Perth (90%) and Peel (55%). Overall, Ontario saw 102 new cases today, raising its active cases by 14 to 965, the sixth consecutive daily increase starting from 891.

Toronto released an updated version of its full case data today, so today's chart is my weekly update of how many new sporadic cases there have been each week. There is a slideshow of the past several weeks in the Facebook edition of today's post, and an interactive version of this week's graphic here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-19

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (276HI→237HI), California (252HI→321HI), U.S. (354HI→388HI), New York (1991HI→2147HI), Spain (17→12), Malta (26→29), Romania (66→65), Sweden (64→68), India (70→71), France (99→99), Iran (134→131), Denmark (120→137), Austria (130→138), Poland (166→170), South Korea (211→211), Indonesia (207→222), Germany (271→225), Turkey (244→242), U.K. (235→247), Norway (298→298), Canada (367→350), Italy (481→477), Toronto (626→487), Ontario (515→520), New Zealand (550→690)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Spain, Germany, Canada

Worse: Iran, Turkey

The same: Romania

Better: U.S., Sweden, India, France, Austria, Poland, South Korea, Indonesia, U.K., Norway

Much better: California, Malta, Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (new→81, 37.2%), Singapore (113→123, 23.5%), Thailand (475→149, 8.6%), Japan (501→169, 78.5%), China (267→264, 2.4%), Mexico (305→358, 74.3%), South Africa (230→425, 54.4%), Australia (626→835, 91.8%), Malaysia (new→1154, 7.4%), Brazil (690→5269, 91.3%), Alabama (4211→22689, 96.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Dominica, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (5, 0.0%); Brunei, Grenada (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Comoros (14, 5.8%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 47.9%); Fiji (14, 57.1%); Laos (14, 23.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino, Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (19, 25.0%); Mongolia (33, 15.5%); Zimbabwe (36, 39.6%); Sri Lanka (48, 14.4%); Cameroon (64, 39.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (79, 18.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (84, 15.1%); Djibouti (85, 4.1%); Madagascar (97, 29.4%); Uzbekistan (101, 42.4%); Ecuador (102, 30.9%); Burundi (104, 65.8%); Burma (106, 31.5%); Philippines (117, 64.6%); Belarus (120, 7.7%); Luxembourg (124, 27.8%); Zambia (134, 42.1%); Eswatini (162, 82.3%); Kazakhstan (168, 46.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (225, 69.6%); Cuba (229, 62.0%); Azerbaijan (238, 20.4%); Saudi Arabia (252, 39.6%); South Sudan (257, 58.3%); Pakistan (265, 13.1%); Czechia (305, 84.9%); Mauritania (349, 21.1%); Vietnam (362, 89.0%); Montenegro (367, 49.9%); Lesotho (377, 84.9%); Yemen (378, 51.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (414, 46.6%); Kyrgyzstan (455, 44.6%); Somalia (471, 68.5%); Togo (515, 88.8%); Guatemala (546, 50.6%); Maldives (631, 94.3%); Namibia (631, 94.9%); Dominican Republic (647, 89.6%); Sierra Leone (647, 70.4%); Kenya (677, 94.2%); Gabon (724, 69.4%); Chile (781, 19.1%); Armenia (803, 49.7%); Bulgaria (889, 85.5%); Angola (893, 95.2%); Colombia (1029, 95.2%); Panama (1055, 94.5%); Cabo Verde (1129, 81.2%); Kosovo (1154, 93.3%); Afghanistan (1220, 64.7%); Kuwait (1320, 48.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1452, 93.4%); Serbia (1693, 91.7%); Tajikistan (1957, 59.7%); North Macedonia (2418, 70.6%); Argentina (2426, 59.5%); Latvia (4721, 45.9%); El Salvador (5200, 99.2%); Moldova (6607, 96.9%); Malawi (8771, 92.5%); Russia (19998, 73.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): NC (132, 55.1%); MS (183, 66.5%); WV (222, 86.3%); NH (224, 14.1%); MN (289, 52.0%); AR (409, 78.4%); OH (553, 73.8%); UT (934, 63.7%); PA (1018, 73.7%); WI (1047, 91.1%); SC (1488, 92.3%); TN (1632, 92.0%); TX (1652, 79.8%); IN (1816, 73.4%); WA (1856, 97.7%); MA (2119, 34.8%); NV (2567, 97.1%); AZ (2781, 82.9%); DE (2862, 98.5%); FL (4108, 91.2%); MD (4238, 98.6%); OK (4840, 95.5%); CO (7591, 97.9%); OR (17855, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (12, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.0%); SK (115, 48.0%); QC (154, 6.7%); NB (159, 16.4%)

Toronto saw 46 new cases in two days, the first time it had reached that level since July 24. Active cases rose ten to 274, returning to where we were two weeks ago. According to provincial statistics, our new cases over the past week (143) are up almost 80% from the previous week (80).

Other areas in Ontario that saw steep increases week-on-week on at least ten cases were Middlesex-London (243%), Waterloo (150%), Huron Perth (90%) and Peel (55%). Overall, Ontario saw 102 new cases today, raising its active cases by 14 to 965, the sixth consecutive daily increase starting from 891.

Toronto released an updated version of its full case data today, so today's chart is my weekly update of how many new sporadic cases there have been each week. There is a slideshow of the past several weeks in the Facebook edition of today's post, and an interactive version of this week's graphic here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-18

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (226HI→252HI), U.S. (327HI→354HI), Louisiana (467HI→467HI), New York (1533HI→1991HI), Spain (17→17), Malta (28→26), Sweden (50→64), Romania (60→66), India (66→70), France (99→99), Denmark (187→120), Austria (132→130), Iran (132→134), Poland (151→166), Indonesia (190→207), South Korea (284→211), U.K. (216→235), Turkey (245→244), Germany (270→271), Norway (323→298), Italy (439→481), Ontario (559→515), New Zealand (535→550), Toronto (626→626), Malaysia (1568→1861)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Denmark, South Korea, Norway

Worse: Malta, Austria

The same: Turkey

Better: U.S., Spain, India, France, Iran, Indonesia, U.K., Germany

Much better: California, Sweden, Romania, Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (142→113, 24.1%), South Africa (246→230, 57.7%), China (209→267, 2.5%), Mexico (1328→305, 71.0%), Thailand (940→475, 8.7%), Japan (723→501, 81.3%), Australia (2185→626, 93.8%), Brazil (new→690, 92.3%), Canada (1860→1191, 13.9%), Israel (548→1580, 67.8%), Alabama (1054→4211, 95.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (6, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (7, 0.0%); Brunei, Grenada (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Chile (14, 20.0%); Eritrea (14, 26.8%); Fiji (14, 57.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 93.2%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Suriname (14, 95.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Equatorial Guinea (42, 47.9%); Mongolia (44, 18.2%); Zimbabwe (45, 46.4%); Cambodia (54, 39.8%); Cameroon (71, 39.2%); Djibouti (83, 4.3%); Ecuador (87, 27.4%); Madagascar (88, 30.6%); Luxembourg (90, 27.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (91, 15.1%); Burundi (95, 63.3%); Philippines (109, 59.0%); Belarus (116, 8.2%); Yemen (126, 52.1%); Uzbekistan (134, 47.1%); Kazakhstan (138, 51.0%); Azerbaijan (182, 20.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (204, 22.9%); Gabon (219, 69.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (225, 69.6%); Burma (235, 31.5%); Pakistan (246, 13.4%); Mauritania (265, 21.3%); South Sudan (296, 58.8%); Montenegro (380, 50.0%); Togo (388, 85.9%); Ghana (396, 29.2%); Nigeria (422, 70.4%); Cote d'Ivoire (431, 49.1%); Sri Lanka (442, 22.5%); Bulgaria (447, 87.3%); Saudi Arabia (472, 44.6%); Lesotho (478, 86.2%); Eswatini (513, 90.0%); Maldives (541, 93.9%); Guatemala (557, 50.5%); Malawi (667, 92.4%); Kyrgyzstan (684, 45.8%); Czechia (770, 89.1%); Somalia (846, 68.5%); Namibia (855, 90.6%); Colombia (887, 94.4%); Kenya (1116, 93.8%); Afghanistan (1249, 64.7%); Argentina (1303, 58.8%); Dominican Republic (1332, 92.6%); Kuwait (1459, 48.6%); Kosovo (1500, 96.0%); Zambia (1915, 44.7%); Qatar (2310, 10.0%); Armenia (2489, 51.2%); North Macedonia (2495, 75.8%); Serbia (2744, 92.7%); Angola (3596, 96.8%); Tajikistan (4414, 60.1%); Egypt (6184, 75.7%); Bolivia (9245, 98.7%); El Salvador (39804, 99.7%); Russia (45464, 74.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): NC (130, 51.6%); NH (145, 14.0%); MS (151, 61.0%); MN (307, 53.5%); WV (436, 91.5%); UT (473, 63.5%); AR (498, 78.1%); OH (822, 75.8%); MI (868, 95.1%); NE (1047, 96.4%); PA (1109, 73.3%); WI (1109, 92.3%); SC (1605, 92.8%); AZ (1688, 83.8%); TX (1954, 81.2%); AK (2497, 91.5%); FL (3032, 91.2%); CO (4251, 98.2%); TN (4786, 92.5%); MD (5311, 98.7%); NV (5696, 97.5%); NM (6800, 92.3%); DE (22195, 99.8%); NJ (48398, 80.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (13, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.0%); QC (202, 7.2%); SK (237, 48.9%); MB (538, 95.5%)

Ontario reported its largest number of new cases (125) this month, resulting in the largest daily increase in active cases (31) to 951 since mid-July. According to provincial stats, Toronto had 27 new cases today, which would be the first time we've had two consecutive days over twenty this month. The hardest-hit part of the province though was Windsor-Essex with 28 new cases: I presume they have discovered another migrant farmworker outbreak, the first major one in several weeks.

Today's chart is just the standard phase diagram of cumulative cases and rate of change among regions of interest.

Stay safe.

2020-08-17

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (195HI→197HI), Brazil (200HI→200HI), Louisiana (294HI→294HI), U.S. (305HI→306HI), New York (1698HI→1756HI), Spain (18→18), Malta (31→29), Sweden (47→47), Romania (48→48), India (63→63), Mexico (73→73), France (101→101), Iran (121→127), Austria (132→133), Poland (133→139), Denmark (170→178), Indonesia (183→182), U.K. (201→197), Turkey (243→245), Germany (236→282), Norway (268→323), South Korea (553→349), Italy (399→399), New Zealand (618→505), Malaysia (1803→1512)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., South Korea

Worse: Malta

The same: Indonesia

Better: California, Brazil, Louisiana, U.S., Spain, Sweden, Romania, India, Mexico, France, Iran, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Turkey

Much better: Germany, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: China (137→147, 2.5%), Singapore (160→154, 28.6%), South Africa (197→236, 60.5%), Israel (629→467, 67.3%), Thailand (new→563, 8.6%), Alabama (1239→879, 94.5%), Japan (new→1034, 84.2%), Ontario (1047→1524, 40.3%), Canada (2033→2698, 14.2%), Australia (1673→3002, 98.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (8, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (9, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 79.9%); Eritrea (14, 26.8%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 93.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (17, 15.9%); Equatorial Guinea (42, 47.9%); Cambodia (54, 39.8%); Niger (62, 3.7%); Cameroon (65, 36.5%); Uzbekistan (81, 52.1%); Taiwan (86, 9.5%); Madagascar (89, 36.5%); Belarus (96, 10.2%); Djibouti (108, 5.3%); Yemen (120, 54.7%); Azerbaijan (148, 22.0%); Mauritania (148, 22.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (157, 16.9%); Sri Lanka (164, 22.5%); Zambia (166, 38.5%); Barbados (174, 42.3%); Mongolia (174, 20.0%); Kazakhstan (187, 57.6%); Namibia (195, 71.4%); Ghana (215, 29.0%); Eswatini (240, 87.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (259, 24.2%); Togo (281, 85.3%); Gabon (282, 72.6%); Luxembourg (309, 36.5%); Zimbabwe (319, 85.1%); North Macedonia (347, 72.6%); Saudi Arabia (375, 46.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (388, 51.0%); Nigeria (399, 69.3%); Lesotho (401, 79.6%); Bulgaria (425, 89.9%); Pakistan (450, 15.6%); Montenegro (520, 51.8%); Armenia (551, 51.0%); Afghanistan (733, 64.4%); Peru (828, 94.2%); South Sudan (1109, 63.7%); Malawi (1375, 90.8%); Russia (1385, 73.4%); Kosovo (1484, 96.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1554, 95.7%); Sierra Leone (2030, 74.1%); Chile (2042, 20.0%); Kuwait (2090, 48.5%); Egypt (2138, 75.7%); Dominican Republic (2411, 95.1%); Liberia (4830, 79.4%); Qatar (4961, 10.1%); Kyrgyzstan (5585, 47.7%); Tajikistan (7137, 60.7%); Honduras (8148, 96.4%); Serbia (8414, 93.8%); Central African Republic (8736, 60.7%); Sudan (34392, 83.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (20): MP (136, 87.8%); AR (251, 86.0%); NH (273, 15.0%); UT (418, 66.2%); MT (745, 91.4%); AZ (809, 84.0%); OH (1118, 78.2%); PA (1342, 72.5%); TX (1448, 82.4%); SC (1834, 94.4%); MI (1973, 91.4%); FL (2550, 91.7%); NM (3156, 93.0%); WI (7938, 93.9%); MD (8822, 99.2%); CO (10756, 98.2%); GA (16984, 99.4%); NV (24125, 98.1%); AK (46039, 91.0%); CT (48087, 81.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (10, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.6%); PE (14, 25.0%); QC (220, 7.9%); AB (3971, 33.2%)

South Korea had its largest new daily case figure since early March today, with 279, of which 253 reportedly were in Seoul. There is justified concern that the outbreak will rapidly worsen from here.

There were 81 (down from 106) new cases reported in Ontario today: 27 (23) in Peel, 10 (16) in Toronto, 8 (7) in Hamilton, 5 (7) in Middlesex-London, 5 (3) in Region of Waterloo, 5 (2) in Niagara Region, 3 (20) in Chatham-Kent, 3 (12) in Ottawa, 2 (7) in York Region, and fewer than five in each of the last two days elsewhere. There were correspondingly fewer recoveries too though, so our active case count increased by one to 904.

Today's chart shows the twenty countries in the world with the largest number of estimated active confirmed cases of COVID-19. You should be able to view it interactively here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-16

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (195HI→197HI), Brazil (200HI→200HI), Louisiana (294HI→294HI), U.S. (305HI→306HI), New York (1698HI→1756HI), Spain (18→18), Malta (31→29), Sweden (47→47), Romania (48→48), India (63→63), Mexico (73→73), France (101→101), Iran (121→127), Austria (132→133), Poland (133→139), Denmark (170→178), Indonesia (183→182), U.K. (201→197), Turkey (243→245), Germany (236→282), Norway (268→323), South Korea (553→349), Italy (399→399), New Zealand (618→505), Malaysia (1803→1512)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., South Korea

Worse: Malta

The same: Indonesia

Better: California, Brazil, Louisiana, U.S., Spain, Sweden, Romania, India, Mexico, France, Iran, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Turkey

Much better: Germany, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: China (137→147, 2.5%), Singapore (160→154, 28.6%), South Africa (197→236, 60.5%), Israel (629→467, 67.3%), Thailand (new→563, 8.6%), Alabama (1239→879, 94.5%), Japan (new→1034, 84.2%), Ontario (1047→1524, 40.3%), Canada (2033→2698, 14.2%), Australia (1673→3002, 98.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (8, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (9, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 79.9%); Eritrea (14, 26.8%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 93.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (17, 15.9%); Equatorial Guinea (42, 47.9%); Cambodia (54, 39.8%); Niger (62, 3.7%); Cameroon (65, 36.5%); Uzbekistan (81, 52.1%); Taiwan (86, 9.5%); Madagascar (89, 36.5%); Belarus (96, 10.2%); Djibouti (108, 5.3%); Yemen (120, 54.7%); Azerbaijan (148, 22.0%); Mauritania (148, 22.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (157, 16.9%); Sri Lanka (164, 22.5%); Zambia (166, 38.5%); Barbados (174, 42.3%); Mongolia (174, 20.0%); Kazakhstan (187, 57.6%); Namibia (195, 71.4%); Ghana (215, 29.0%); Eswatini (240, 87.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (259, 24.2%); Togo (281, 85.3%); Gabon (282, 72.6%); Luxembourg (309, 36.5%); Zimbabwe (319, 85.1%); North Macedonia (347, 72.6%); Saudi Arabia (375, 46.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (388, 51.0%); Nigeria (399, 69.3%); Lesotho (401, 79.6%); Bulgaria (425, 89.9%); Pakistan (450, 15.6%); Montenegro (520, 51.8%); Armenia (551, 51.0%); Afghanistan (733, 64.4%); Peru (828, 94.2%); South Sudan (1109, 63.7%); Malawi (1375, 90.8%); Russia (1385, 73.4%); Kosovo (1484, 96.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1554, 95.7%); Sierra Leone (2030, 74.1%); Chile (2042, 20.0%); Kuwait (2090, 48.5%); Egypt (2138, 75.7%); Dominican Republic (2411, 95.1%); Liberia (4830, 79.4%); Qatar (4961, 10.1%); Kyrgyzstan (5585, 47.7%); Tajikistan (7137, 60.7%); Honduras (8148, 96.4%); Serbia (8414, 93.8%); Central African Republic (8736, 60.7%); Sudan (34392, 83.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (20): MP (136, 87.8%); AR (251, 86.0%); NH (273, 15.0%); UT (418, 66.2%); MT (745, 91.4%); AZ (809, 84.0%); OH (1118, 78.2%); PA (1342, 72.5%); TX (1448, 82.4%); SC (1834, 94.4%); MI (1973, 91.4%); FL (2550, 91.7%); NM (3156, 93.0%); WI (7938, 93.9%); MD (8822, 99.2%); CO (10756, 98.2%); GA (16984, 99.4%); NV (24125, 98.1%); AK (46039, 91.0%); CT (48087, 81.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (10, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.6%); PE (14, 25.0%); QC (220, 7.9%); AB (3971, 33.2%)

South Korea had its largest new daily case figure since early March today, with 279, of which 253 reportedly were in Seoul. There is justified concern that the outbreak will rapidly worsen from here.

There were 81 (down from 106) new cases reported in Ontario today: 27 (23) in Peel, 10 (16) in Toronto, 8 (7) in Hamilton, 5 (7) in Middlesex-London, 5 (3) in Region of Waterloo, 5 (2) in Niagara Region, 3 (20) in Chatham-Kent, 3 (12) in Ottawa, 2 (7) in York Region, and fewer than five in each of the last two days elsewhere. There were correspondingly fewer recoveries too though, so our active case count increased by one to 904.

Today's chart shows the twenty countries in the world with the largest number of estimated active confirmed cases of COVID-19. You should be able to view it interactively here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-15

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (195HI→195HI), U.S. (325HI→305HI), New York (1736HI→1698HI), Spain (18→18), Malta (39→31), Sweden (47→47), Romania (56→48), India (65→63), Mexico (72→73), France (101→101), Iran (121→121), Austria (160→132), Poland (142→133), Japan (140→140), Denmark (94→170), Indonesia (196→183), U.K. (230→201), Germany (221→236), Turkey (247→243), Norway (268→268), Italy (527→399), South Korea (846→553), New Zealand (618→618), Malaysia (2358→1803), Thailand (2863→2863)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Malta, Romania, Austria, Poland, Indonesia, U.K., Turkey

Worse: India

Better: California, Spain, Sweden, Mexico, France, Iran, Japan, Germany, Norway

Much better: Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (150→136, 62.4%), China (171→137, 2.7%), Singapore (139→160, 31.3%), South Africa (464→197, 61.0%), Brazil (new→485, 84.2%), Israel (2397→629, 66.9%), Ontario (1728→1047, 40.8%), Alabama (1121→1239, 96.2%), Australia (new→1673, 96.2%), Canada (104→2033, 14.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (9, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (10, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Eritrea (14, 26.8%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (17, 15.9%); Chad (19, 3.2%); Niger (30, 3.3%); Equatorial Guinea (42, 47.9%); Comoros (47, 16.3%); Djibouti (79, 5.3%); Taiwan (82, 9.1%); Belarus (84, 10.2%); Argentina (96, 60.7%); Madagascar (97, 40.4%); Mauritania (104, 22.9%); Mongolia (110, 23.6%); Uzbekistan (110, 60.5%); Sri Lanka (117, 22.9%); Yemen (119, 55.3%); Azerbaijan (154, 23.4%); Luxembourg (177, 35.0%); Ghana (189, 30.1%); Kazakhstan (189, 58.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (220, 50.7%); Georgia (270, 68.5%); Gabon (282, 72.6%); North Macedonia (289, 71.7%); Rwanda (333, 75.0%); Barbados (341, 42.3%); Armenia (360, 52.1%); Togo (367, 93.3%); Pakistan (374, 15.3%); Saudi Arabia (377, 47.0%); Bulgaria (407, 89.1%); Sierra Leone (412, 73.3%); Nigeria (440, 69.2%); Oman (473, 20.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (556, 25.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (596, 18.8%); Chile (862, 20.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1133, 95.8%); Iceland (1223, 10.2%); Kyrgyzstan (1237, 48.4%); Russia (1355, 74.1%); Afghanistan (1480, 66.9%); Kosovo (1621, 96.2%); Egypt (1753, 75.9%); Benin (2522, 35.8%); Venezuela (3566, 78.0%); Zimbabwe (3760, 94.4%); Peru (4211, 98.2%); Liberia (4258, 78.8%); Serbia (4595, 93.9%); Honduras (6885, 96.4%); Dominican Republic (10949, 95.9%); West Bank and Gaza (12642, 94.6%); Montenegro (17034, 54.2%); Tajikistan (17802, 60.6%); South Sudan (28847, 65.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (20): VT (14, 21.2%); NH (337, 15.8%); UT (346, 66.4%); AZ (662, 84.3%); AR (701, 85.9%); TX (820, 82.2%); MT (1512, 87.3%); SC (1551, 95.1%); PA (1566, 76.8%); MA (1644, 35.5%); CT (1662, 81.4%); WI (1697, 94.7%); OH (1885, 79.5%); MI (1933, 89.8%); NM (2786, 93.0%); CO (3984, 98.4%); FL (6437, 92.4%); MD (47140, 99.7%); TN (59438, 94.6%); NV (66181, 98.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (11, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.6%); PE (14, 25.0%); QC (249, 8.3%)

The U.S. worsening is a weekly reporting cycle issue.

Malta had 72 new cases today, the highest so far this month, and continues exponential growth that began late last month.

Austria's 282 new cases yesterday were the most in a day since April; today it saw 303.

Thailand saw 31 new cases in total in the past week, down a little from 35 the previous week. In local Ontario terms, Thailand has 60 times as many people as York Region, and about as many cases of COVID-19.

Ontario reported 106 new cases today, breaking a hundred for the first time in five days. Active cases rose by four, breaking 900 after two days in the 890s. New cases per active case are running at 10-12%, well above replacement level, so I would expect an increase in active cases at least in the short term. There were no cases again in the North, 23 (up from 17) in Peel, 20 (-1?) in Chatham-Kent, 16 (30) in Toronto, 12 (7) in Ottawa, 7 (6) in Hamilton, 7 (4) in York, 7 (2) in Middlesex-London, 3 (6) in Windsor-Essex, and fewer than 5 cases on either of the last two days.

Over the past seven days, Chatham-Kent has had by far the largest number of new active cases per 100K capita (37), followed by Southwestern (13) and Windsor-Essex (12). Then come Lambton (9.5), Peel and Ottawa (7), Hamilton (5), Niagara (4, which is the average for the province), Middlesex-London and Waterloo (3.9), Huron Perth (3.6), Grey Bruce and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (2.9), and Toronto (2.8). Six regions recorded no new cases during the past week, including Kingston.

Today's chart updates one from about a week ago, showing semilogarithmically the estimated number of active cases in each Canadian province. New in the past week: Ontario has taken the lead from Quebec after Quebec found another counting error; British Columbia is rapidly heading up to Alberta levels while Alberta holds steady; Manitoba barely overtakes Saskatchewan; and New Brunswick inches back up into the double digits.

Stay safe.

2020-08-14

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (215HI→188HI), California (186HI→195HI), U.S. (327HI→325HI), New York (2081HI→1736HI), Spain (18→18), Malta (41→39), Sweden (53→47), Romania (56→56), India (65→65), Mexico (82→72), Denmark (116→94), France (83→101), Iran (126→121), Japan (144→140), Poland (153→142), Australia (164→156), Austria (220→160), Indonesia (210→196), Germany (233→221), U.K. (230→230), Turkey (248→247), Norway (327→268), Italy (527→527), New Zealand (1078→618), South Korea (1211→846), Malaysia (2816→2358)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, Sweden, Mexico, Denmark, Iran, Japan, Poland, Australia, Austria, Indonesia, Germany, Norway

Worse: U.S., Malta

The same: Turkey

Better: California, Spain, Romania, India, U.K.

Much better: France

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Canada (104→104, 14.3%), Singapore (139→139, 32.9%), Louisiana (135→150, 62.4%), China (198→171, 2.8%), Thailand (271→305, 9.1%), South Africa (524→464, 71.4%), Toronto (9,768→709, 8.4%), Alabama (2996→1121, 96.0%), Ontario (936→1728, 41.1%), Israel (new→2397, 69.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (3, 0.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (10, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (11, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 29.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Burma (14, 33.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Iceland (14, 10.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 4.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Chad (16, 3.2%); Niger (22, 3.3%); Comoros (23, 12.5%); Djibouti (73, 5.5%); Luxembourg (75, 37.2%); Barbados (76, 36.5%); Taiwan (82, 9.1%); Argentina (103, 61.0%); Belarus (107, 10.9%); Uzbekistan (107, 61.7%); Madagascar (109, 43.5%); Mauritania (115, 23.7%); Venezuela (116, 71.4%); Oman (120, 20.2%); Azerbaijan (142, 24.8%); Rwanda (143, 69.8%); Ghana (164, 31.7%); Sri Lanka (202, 23.8%); Eritrea (221, 26.8%); Mongolia (233, 25.5%); Zambia (243, 45.4%); North Macedonia (245, 76.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (287, 53.2%); Armenia (324, 52.0%); Togo (360, 91.7%); Sierra Leone (368, 73.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (392, 18.5%); Georgia (486, 66.4%); Kazakhstan (525, 69.1%); Saudi Arabia (533, 48.9%); Pakistan (541, 15.8%); South Sudan (595, 64.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (612, 93.3%); Tajikistan (685, 60.5%); Kyrgyzstan (728, 48.4%); Bulgaria (759, 94.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (858, 26.4%); Afghanistan (865, 66.8%); Somalia (964, 70.9%); Zimbabwe (993, 93.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1065, 79.9%); Gabon (1151, 80.6%); Chile (1280, 20.0%); Yemen (1643, 63.8%); Egypt (1730, 76.2%); Eswatini (1787, 96.0%); Serbia (1895, 94.1%); Kosovo (2175, 98.4%); Benin (2522, 35.8%); Russia (2757, 74.8%); Guatemala (3403, 54.1%); Dominican Republic (4059, 95.7%); Honduras (30801, 96.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (30): VT (14, 21.7%); NC (167, 71.0%); MS (208, 80.1%); AR (263, 84.2%); UT (463, 68.9%); NH (480, 16.7%); IN (498, 72.4%); IA (564, 85.1%); MT (593, 87.0%); WY (761, 84.1%); SD (769, 79.0%); AZ (857, 86.2%); OH (884, 79.7%); NM (899, 92.9%); TN (1020, 93.4%); TX (1239, 83.2%); ND (1335, 97.7%); SC (1373, 95.5%); PA (1518, 76.2%); MN (1586, 60.3%); MA (1749, 34.5%); CT (1925, 81.4%); NV (2475, 98.3%); WI (2507, 95.7%); AK (3049, 92.8%); ME (5131, 53.9%); FL (5749, 92.8%); MO (8685, 97.4%); WA (9293, 99.3%); OK (29584, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (12, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 25.0%); QC (288, 8.4%); AB (601, 33.2%)

We were back up to 92 cases reported across Ontario, after a brief dip yesterday due to unavailable data in Toronto. One death and 83 recoveries meant an increase of 8 active cases to 899, ending a three-day run of declining numbers. There were no new cases reported again in the North, 30 (up from an uncertain 1? yesterday) in Toronto, 17 (19) in Peel, 7 (10) in Ottawa, 6 (9) in Windsor-Essex, 6 (4) in Hamilton, 2 (6) in Middlesex-London, 0 (8) in Waterloo, 0 (7) in Wellington-Duffering-Guelph, and fewer than five in each of the past two days everywhere else.

Toronto reported 4 new cases today, and 9 new cases yesterday, but it's hard to make 4+9 = 1+30, at least without anagramming. The usual explanation for apparent discrepancies between Ontario and Toronto is that they end their reporting days at different times of the day, but it's hard to imagine that accounting for such a large gap here. We'll see how the numbers look next on Monday.

There were two COVID-19 news items today that vied for my mentally awarded title of most outrageous story. Here in Toronto, it was reported that an employee of a popular strip club had tested positive for COVID-19, and that according to entrance records there were more than 500 patrons who were likely exposed, but that there was some concern as to the accuracy and completeness of the records. Joking aside, this could potentially be as bad as the Seoul night club outbreak of May.

The other news story was that of concerned British travellers cramming into all types of stations and buses, trying to get home ahead of impending new travel quarantine restrictions so as not to miss two weeks of work. That sounds like it could also keep the U.K.'s current trend of 1,000 new cases a day going for a few more weeks.

Germany's new daily case numbers are up significantly, from 1,157 a week ago to 1,510 today, capping three days of steeply increasing numbers. France too is up significantly, 2,846 new cases today compared to 2,288 a week ago, after a week in the 2,000s after a previous week in the 1,000s.

India saw a very slight dip in new cases with 64,553 today (the most of any of my regions of interest), down from a record 66,999 yesterday, but up from 62,538 a week ago.

Today's chart shows how all my regions of interest are doing in terms of cumulative cases, and the trend thereof.

Stay safe.

2020-08-13

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (219HI→185HI), California (206HI→186HI), U.S. (324HI→327HI), New York (2081HI→2081HI), Spain (37→18), Malta (41→41), Sweden (57→53), Romania (60→56), India (65→65), France (108→83), Denmark (116→116), Iran (134→126), Japan (144→144), Poland (163→153), Australia (144→164), Indonesia (214→210), Austria (237→220), U.K. (230→230), Germany (294→233), Turkey (251→248), Norway (306→327), Italy (547→527), New Zealand (2152→1078), Malaysia (2941→2816)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, California, Spain, Sweden, Romania, France, Iran, Poland, Indonesia, Austria, Germany

Worse: Turkey

Better: U.S., Malta, India, Denmark, Japan, U.K., Norway

Much better: Australia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Canada (113→104, 14.2%), Louisiana (148→135, 59.6%), Singapore (170→139, 33.7%), China (225→198, 3.0%), Thailand (332→271, 8.9%), Mexico (302→478, 79.7%), South Africa (581→524, 72.5%), Brazil (959→884, 93.9%), Ontario (936, no new data, 41.2%), Alabama (new→2996, 97.8%), South Korea (2975→6207, 9.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (4, 0.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (11, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 29.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Georgia (14, 68.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 79.9%); Liechtenstein (14, 4.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mali (14, 70.2%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Sierra Leone (14, 75.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Chad (20, 3.5%); Comoros (23, 12.5%); Niger (23, 3.3%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (27, 23.8%); Taiwan (61, 9.1%); Oman (81, 20.1%); Djibouti (83, 6.2%); Mongolia (98, 25.5%); Argentina (99, 59.3%); Venezuela (102, 63.8%); Luxembourg (111, 41.0%); Belarus (129, 11.8%); Ghana (129, 32.1%); Rwanda (130, 72.3%); Azerbaijan (131, 26.2%); Madagascar (135, 47.1%); Burma (136, 29.9%); Zambia (141, 45.7%); Ecuador (149, 39.2%); Lesotho (169, 77.4%); Uzbekistan (172, 71.0%); Eritrea (221, 26.8%); Mauritania (221, 26.3%); Sri Lanka (271, 24.5%); North Macedonia (291, 77.7%); Kyrgyzstan (326, 48.3%); Barbados (341, 42.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (392, 18.5%); Togo (413, 90.7%); Armenia (502, 53.5%); Kazakhstan (518, 67.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (539, 26.9%); Pakistan (589, 15.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (616, 55.8%); Serbia (642, 94.0%); South Sudan (646, 64.7%); Bulgaria (750, 94.8%); Malawi (768, 93.7%); Afghanistan (773, 66.4%); Guatemala (774, 52.7%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (906, 95.2%); Somalia (964, 70.9%); Switzerland (986, 17.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1065, 79.9%); Gabon (1151, 80.6%); Saudi Arabia (1230, 51.6%); Egypt (1677, 76.7%); Kenya (1695, 97.6%); Montenegro (2011, 54.1%); Chile (2077, 19.9%); Panama (2180, 96.2%); Kosovo (2209, 98.4%); Benin (2522, 35.8%); Dominican Republic (2809, 96.9%); Honduras (3873, 96.3%); Kuwait (4116, 49.6%); Tajikistan (5117, 60.8%); United Arab Emirates (5581, 33.6%); Zimbabwe (5993, 95.7%); Russia (33954, 75.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (31): NC (145, 66.9%); MS (181, 76.3%); WY (208, 80.1%); NH (211, 16.7%); MT (222, 83.4%); MN (270, 55.7%); ME (302, 52.0%); AR (329, 87.2%); VT (432, 20.6%); SD (499, 76.0%); IA (584, 84.9%); UT (603, 71.3%); TN (722, 94.0%); PA (736, 75.6%); RI (969, 96.2%); NM (979, 93.1%); AK (1071, 91.4%); OH (1079, 80.4%); AZ (1107, 88.2%); ND (1159, 94.5%); WI (1247, 94.9%); SC (1339, 95.8%); TX (1438, 84.1%); NV (1812, 97.6%); MA (2222, 34.0%); OK (2586, 97.6%); CT (2669, 81.3%); FL (2895, 93.1%); WA (5857, 99.2%); CO (9963, 98.3%); OR (194231, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NS (11, 0.0%); PE (14, 25.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); QC (45, 9.1%); SK (239, 46.7%); AB (409, 33.4%)

New cases in the double digits in Malta for a 15th straight day, pushing active case numbers up from a little under 50 to a little under 500 over that time.

South Africa has had a fourth day with fewer than 4,000 new cases for the first time since mid-June.

Ontario numbers today include only one case for Toronto, due to an unspecified issue obtaining Toronto data. Provisionally then we saw a drop of 21 active cases to 891, based on 78 new cases, 99 recoveries and no deaths. There were no cases in the North (down from 1 yesterday), 10 (13) in Ottawa, 19 (16) in Peel, 2 (7) in Chatham-Kent, 6 (1) in Middlesex-London, 9 (8) in Windsor-Essex, 4 (6) in Hamilton, 8 (3) in Waterloo, 7 (0) in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph. For those who aren't familiar with Ontario geography this feels to me like a slight but significant new shift toward toward central southwestern Ontario and away from the U.S. border.

Today's chart updates the chart from July 29 to show estimated active confirmed/probable cases by continent, showing how in the interim Africa has definitely passed its peak, North America appears to be almost at it, and Europe is getting close to its second peak. Asia/Oceania and South America are continuing to trend linearly upward.

Stay safe.

2020-08-12

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (206HI→206HI), Israel (0→219HI), Alabama (227HI→249HI), U.S. (312HI→324HI), New York (2076HI→2081HI), Spain (35→37), Malta (43→41), Sweden (55→57), Romania (60→60), India (64→65), France (133→108), Denmark (142→116), Australia (141→144), Japan (129→144), Poland (154→163), Indonesia (202→214), U.K. (265→230), Turkey (253→251), Germany (349→294), Norway (314→306), Italy (595→547), Toronto (633→850)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, France, Denmark, U.K., Germany, Norway

Worse: Malta, Turkey

Better: California, U.S., Spain, Sweden, Romania, India, Australia, Poland, Indonesia

Much better: Alabama, Japan

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (125→107, 6.5%), Canada (123→113, 14.4%), Louisiana (new→148, 57.3%), Singapore (269→170, 36.1%), China (316→225, 3.1%), Mexico (271→302, 77.4%), Thailand (new→332, 9.0%), New Zealand (341, no new data, 2.4%), South Africa (1263→581, 74.4%), Ontario (1302→936, 41.2%), Brazil (1750→959, 94.4%), Iran (951→1108, 68.1%), Austria (5451→1602, 15.0%), South Korea (394→2975, 9.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (5, 0.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (12, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 29.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Chad (14, 2.8%); Comoros (14, 12.5%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 2.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (27, 23.8%); Mongolia (49, 21.8%); Barbados (61, 46.2%); Oman (67, 20.6%); Ghana (79, 33.7%); Argentina (99, 58.1%); Djibouti (101, 6.5%); Venezuela (107, 65.4%); Azerbaijan (115, 27.5%); Luxembourg (123, 40.2%); Niger (131, 4.7%); Ecuador (141, 35.3%); Mauritania (148, 26.8%); Rwanda (156, 75.5%); Lesotho (166, 85.1%); Belarus (193, 14.4%); Eritrea (221, 26.8%); Madagascar (245, 52.0%); Burma (250, 33.1%); Uzbekistan (329, 82.1%); Kyrgyzstan (353, 48.0%); Sri Lanka (373, 26.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (436, 27.1%); Benin (459, 34.2%); Armenia (463, 54.6%); Montenegro (488, 54.9%); Switzerland (496, 17.5%); Georgia (523, 64.8%); Guatemala (560, 51.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (607, 19.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (631, 55.8%); Burundi (650, 76.7%); Somalia (802, 70.9%); Liberia (856, 79.8%); North Macedonia (971, 80.3%); Serbia (1127, 94.2%); Pakistan (1152, 17.1%); Malawi (1221, 93.0%); Afghanistan (1290, 68.0%); Egypt (1600, 77.2%); South Sudan (1653, 65.4%); Dominican Republic (1773, 96.9%); Togo (1873, 93.3%); Gabon (1997, 81.6%); Kosovo (2209, 98.4%); Uruguay (2283, 63.0%); Saudi Arabia (2338, 52.5%); Kuwait (2953, 49.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3150, 98.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (3163, 79.9%); Zimbabwe (3934, 94.7%); Bulgaria (3939, 97.9%); Kazakhstan (4281, 72.2%); United Arab Emirates (4921, 33.5%); Portugal (5371, 88.2%); Honduras (5524, 96.9%); Panama (5967, 96.3%); Tajikistan (7172, 60.9%); Haiti (7189, 72.7%); Mali (13167, 70.0%); Sudan (18548, 83.2%); Central African Republic (74436, 60.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (26): NC (130, 61.6%); MS (172, 73.8%); NH (186, 16.4%); MN (206, 53.5%); ME (314, 51.1%); WY (320, 78.8%); ND (369, 89.2%); VT (441, 21.0%); UT (445, 72.7%); AK (482, 91.1%); WI (865, 94.4%); NM (994, 94.1%); AZ (1070, 89.0%); RI (1103, 96.2%); OH (1166, 81.2%); PA (1412, 74.8%); TN (1420, 93.4%); DE (1429, 95.9%); IA (1476, 86.1%); TX (1515, 85.3%); SC (2032, 96.7%); NV (2828, 98.3%); CT (2979, 81.5%); FL (3302, 93.6%); CO (3628, 98.5%); NE (4813, 99.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NS (11, 0.0%); PE (14, 25.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); QC (45, 9.1%); SK (239, 46.7%); AB (409, 33.4%)

Toronto's weekly update to the full case log was published today, so today's chart shows where all the sporadic cases were in the neighbourhood in the past week. We had had a report of one in our neighbourhood earlier, but it was removed from the database as part of an ongoing effort to improve the accuracy of the data. We go back to having no new sporadic cases in our neighbourhood since June 2nd.

We had a net 16 new cases (37 less 21 removed duplicates) over two days in our city, no deaths, but only nine recoveries, so our active numbers slide further back up to 268. That's higher than it's been since August 4th, although not by much, so I no longer classify us as post-peak, but rather plateauing. If we continue to see about 18 new cases a day, as we have seen since late July, we will continue to have about 250 cases of COVID-19 in the city, because it takes 14 days to be categorized as recovered and 14 times 18 is 252.

In our household, we think that both of our boys are now registered to study online in the first so-called quadmester in high school in September. There's no confirmation after you've made your choice that it was correctly received though, so we'll keep our fingers crossed.

It would be very helpful if we could get that number down to just a few cases a day before school starts.

There were 95 new cases in Ontario 19 (up from maybe 5) in Toronto, 16 (7) in Peel, 13 (7) in Ottawa, 8 (10) in Windsor-Essex, 7 (6) in Chatham-Kent, 6 (?) in Hamilton, 4 (8) in Southwestern, and fewer than 5 in each of the last two days elsewhere.

The apparent rise over the last three weeks in Quebec was also apparently again due to unusual presentation of data in that province. In particular, the province went for 20 days without updating their count of recovered cases, during which time apparently 2,000 cases recovered. This leaves their actual active cases now at 1,834, not too much more than three weeks ago.

This has led to a rosier than accurate picture of how things are in Canada, but things should even out again in the next few days.

Israel passed the 1% mark of confirmed cases per population today, and continues on ahead with about 1,500 new cases a day as it has for the last forty days.

The United States continues to show signs of plateauing, with three slight daily decreases in its estimated active cases over the past ten days, and only an averaeg 0.2% daily increase over that period.

Singapore had two consecutive days with fewer than 100 new cases for the first time since the beginning of April.

Stay safe.

2020-08-11

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (246HI→206HI), Alabama (223HI→227HI), U.S. (291HI→312HI), Louisiana (291HI→315HI), New York (2033HI→2076HI), Spain (35→35), Malta (37→43), Sweden (46→55), Romania (58→60), India (61→64), Japan (118→129), France (143→133), Australia (131→141), Denmark (142→142), Poland (139→154), Indonesia (181→202), Turkey (253→253), U.K. (265→265), Norway (302→314), Germany (336→349), Italy (543→595), Thailand (3094→3390)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, France

Better: Alabama, U.S., Louisiana, Spain, Romania, India, Australia, Denmark, Turkey, U.K., Norway, Germany

Much better: Malta, Sweden, Japan, Poland, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Canada (new→123, 14.6%), Malaysia (197→125, 6.4%), Singapore (800→269, 39.3%), Mexico (1840→271, 74.4%), China (277→316, 3.4%), New Zealand (164→341, 2.4%), South Korea (592→394, 9.1%), Iran (1256→951, 67.6%), South Africa (1321→1263, 78.2%), Ontario (839→1302, 42.1%), Brazil (new→1750, 95.7%), Israel (1008→2465, 71.6%), Austria (new→5451, 14.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (6, 0.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 29.5%); Benin (14, 36.1%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 25.9%); Nicaragua (14, 75.2%); Niger (14, 5.3%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 23.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Taiwan (14, 11.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (20, 22.1%); Eritrea (40, 26.8%); Oman (62, 22.1%); Djibouti (96, 7.0%); Azerbaijan (104, 29.0%); Ghana (113, 35.9%); Luxembourg (114, 41.4%); Barbados (125, 44.2%); Ecuador (146, 32.6%); Mauritania (160, 30.1%); Belarus (165, 15.2%); Lesotho (166, 85.1%); Mongolia (172, 27.3%); Slovenia (188, 23.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (202, 27.2%); Chad (213, 6.5%); Uruguay (215, 59.7%); Rwanda (267, 81.8%); Montenegro (268, 54.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (291, 75.1%); Sri Lanka (348, 28.2%); Madagascar (349, 56.2%); Guatemala (389, 51.3%); Pakistan (399, 17.0%); Switzerland (405, 16.2%); Kyrgyzstan (410, 49.9%); Venezuela (413, 78.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (416, 19.4%); Uzbekistan (446, 85.0%); Liberia (460, 79.3%); Armenia (590, 57.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (609, 59.4%); Burundi (650, 76.7%); Malawi (735, 92.7%); South Sudan (748, 65.2%); Burma (753, 33.9%); Serbia (1193, 94.7%); United Arab Emirates (1235, 33.1%); Egypt (1304, 77.8%); Haiti (1305, 72.1%); Somalia (1328, 71.9%); Bulgaria (1436, 97.5%); Dominican Republic (1544, 96.3%); North Macedonia (1580, 80.8%); Saudi Arabia (1842, 52.8%); Afghanistan (2513, 68.7%); Zambia (3032, 52.2%); Zimbabwe (3617, 95.2%); Tajikistan (3976, 60.7%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3980, 99.1%); Kuwait (4033, 49.8%); Portugal (42088, 88.5%); Qatar (53788, 10.0%); Honduras (61933, 97.0%); Russia (308014, 76.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (26): NC (135, 58.1%); NH (136, 17.0%); MS (167, 69.4%); ME (217, 51.0%); VT (248, 21.2%); WY (297, 82.6%); MN (333, 56.4%); UT (389, 74.3%); AK (476, 91.2%); MT (610, 89.1%); AR (858, 92.7%); AZ (878, 90.5%); NM (925, 94.3%); OH (961, 81.3%); MI (1416, 97.0%); IA (1522, 87.4%); MO (2200, 96.6%); FL (2202, 93.1%); RI (3736, 95.9%); NE (3980, 97.4%); WI (4215, 97.0%); TX (5772, 87.4%); SC (8188, 97.9%); CO (8674, 99.4%); NV (20045, 98.8%); NJ (47761, 79.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, PE (eradicated); NS (12, 0.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); QC (50, 9.4%); AB (267, 32.1%); SK (3839, 51.4%)

Today's chart shows all the countries of Europe, in the usual phase diagram showing cumulative cases vs. percentage change.

It was widely announced today that there were only 33 new cases of COVID-19 in Ontario today. It would be more correct to say that the number of cumulative cases in the province was 33 greater today than it was yesterday. This is because the city of Toronto, in its ongoing efforts to sanitize its data, eliminated 21 more duplicate cases from its database. We won't know how many new cases there were in Toronto until tomorrow at the earliest, but if we assumed a typical 20 or so cases for the city, we would get a more typical provincial total of 33+21+20=74.

In any case, that brings us down 42 cases to 952 active cases in the province, a new post-peak record.

There were no cases in the North at all, today or yesterday. The Southwestern District saw 8 cases; 7 in Ottawa, and 7 in Peel. It was a beautifully quiet day.

In Toronto, the public school board has started calling families to ask if they would like their children to study online or in a seemingly impractical 15-student half-day in-school cohorts in the first so-called quadmester. Our older son has so far opted for studying from home, and looks forward to learning which of his selected courses will be involved.

Stay safe.

2020-08-10

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (223HI→223HI), California (273HI→246HI), Brazil (222HI→272HI), Louisiana (169HI→291HI), U.S. (285HI→291HI), New York (1856HI→2033HI), Spain (28→35), Malta (37→37), Sweden (56→46), Romania (51→58), India (62→61), Japan (103→118), Australia (121→131), Poland (133→139), Denmark (151→142), France (143→143), Indonesia (175→181), Turkey (255→253), U.K. (256→265), Austria (263→300), Norway (297→302), Germany (332→336), Canada (435→350), Italy (499→543), Thailand (2370→3094)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Sweden, Denmark, Canada

Worse: Turkey

The same: India

Better: Alabama, U.S., Malta, Australia, Poland, France, Indonesia, U.K., Norway, Germany

Much better: Brazil, Louisiana, Spain, Romania, Japan, Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (360→164, 2.3%), Malaysia (184→197, 6.7%), China (261→277, 3.4%), South Korea (207→592, 9.7%), Singapore (new→800, 42.8%), Ontario (443→839, 41.9%), Israel (954→1008, 70.9%), Toronto (468→1018, 8.7%), Iran (3220→1256, 68.5%), South Africa (700→1321, 79.5%), Mexico (new→1840, 81.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 29.5%); Benin (14, 36.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (14, 99.2%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Chad (14, 7.2%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 25.9%); Nicaragua (14, 75.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 23.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (26, 22.1%); Eritrea (49, 29.0%); Cambodia (67, 36.4%); Botswana (72, 57.4%); Oman (84, 27.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (102, 27.4%); Azerbaijan (103, 31.4%); Ghana (114, 38.8%); Lesotho (115, 76.8%); Barbados (125, 44.2%); Belarus (129, 15.0%); Djibouti (132, 7.5%); Montenegro (169, 54.1%); Mongolia (172, 27.3%); Mauritania (173, 30.5%); Jordan (178, 18.3%); Sri Lanka (183, 26.8%); Burma (195, 33.9%); Ecuador (231, 32.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (253, 19.4%); Pakistan (265, 17.0%); Uruguay (296, 63.0%); Armenia (332, 58.5%); Croatia (366, 48.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (371, 60.1%); Rwanda (376, 85.2%); Madagascar (422, 58.4%); Kyrgyzstan (494, 51.0%); Liberia (495, 79.4%); Burkina Faso (680, 45.8%); Uzbekistan (718, 87.7%); United Arab Emirates (798, 33.2%); Guatemala (896, 54.8%); Kuwait (908, 48.7%); Slovenia (943, 27.8%); Egypt (1048, 78.2%); Zambia (1337, 51.5%); Luxembourg (1349, 55.3%); Dominican Republic (1362, 96.8%); Saudi Arabia (1502, 53.1%); Somalia (1981, 73.1%); Serbia (1985, 96.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1990, 82.3%); Russia (2335, 76.2%); Malawi (2978, 92.8%); Switzerland (3026, 16.1%); Qatar (3149, 9.9%); Haiti (3439, 72.8%); Portugal (3555, 88.0%); Czechia (3565, 97.9%); South Sudan (4343, 68.1%); Kazakhstan (7408, 75.0%); Honduras (30847, 96.6%); Afghanistan (35169, 69.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): NH (175, 17.6%); UT (329, 75.0%); VT (394, 21.7%); WY (449, 87.2%); AZ (733, 91.0%); ME (949, 54.2%); AK (962, 93.8%); MT (1132, 91.8%); MI (1225, 93.8%); OH (1587, 83.6%); PA (1647, 78.3%); DE (1935, 97.5%); NM (1946, 96.9%); TX (1981, 86.7%); FL (1996, 93.6%); CT (2366, 83.1%); CO (2397, 98.3%); MO (2759, 97.9%); NE (3550, 96.8%); IA (5164, 91.3%); WI (6237, 97.3%); NJ (20341, 79.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE (eradicated); NS (13, 0.0%); NB (14, 8.2%); NL (14, 1.0%); QC (52, 9.4%); SK (109, 51.4%); AB (2250, 34.9%)

Canada's worsening numbers today are just the result of Western provinces reporting their weekend cases, and not something to worry about.

The number of post-peak countries dipped back down below 80 for the first time in five days; this past week was the first time it had made it so high. The number of post-peak U.S. states and territories also seems to be gradually on its way upward. Today will mark a week at 18 or above, where the previous week's high was 14.

Ontario saw 115 new cases today, ending a weeklong streak of under-100 days. We were also up 13 active cases to 994, breaking a 12-day streak of declining active cases. 20 (up from 6) in Ottawa, 19 (17) in Peel, 7 (9) in York, 16 (25) in Toronto, 5 (0) in Chatham-Kent, 12 (4) in Windsor-Essex, 5 (2) in Halton, 11 (0) in Niagara, 5 (0) in Waterloo. Just looking at these numbers, it looks like there have been some outbreaks among migrant farmworkers again.

Toronto had 48 new cases over the last three days, 45 recoveries, and two deaths, for a net increase of one active case to 261. That brings to an end a 25-day streak of decreasing active cases in our city. Since the last data three days ago, the sources of 67 cases have been identified: 40 close contact, 10 travel, 9 community and 8 healthcare. 49 cases have been identified as sporadic, and 4 due to outbreaks.

I think we are still doing okay: our new case rate has stayed around 6% of active cases for a while now, which should be low enough for active cases to gradually subside. It would still be very helpful if people were just a little more careful, to reduce all those close contact cases, so that we could get the numbers down to complete contact-tracing levels before school resumes next month.

Today's chart goes back to where this series of posts started, with a phase diagram of my regions of interest, plotting cumulative confirmed/probable cases per capita against rate of growth.

Stay safe.

2020-08-09

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (169HI→169HI), Brazil (184HI→222HI), Alabama (223HI→223HI), U.S. (289HI→285HI), New York (1744HI→1856HI), Singapore (3→4), Spain (32→28), Malta (41→37), Romania (51→51), Sweden (56→56), India (64→62), Mexico (71→77), Japan (103→103), Australia (99→121), Poland (132→133), France (143→143), Denmark (151→151), Indonesia (175→175), Turkey (255→255), U.K. (276→256), Norway (297→297), Germany (286→332), Canada (385→435), Italy (523→499), Thailand (2842→2370)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Spain, Malta, U.K.

Worse: India

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, Singapore, Romania, Sweden, Mexico, Japan, Poland, France, Denmark, Indonesia, Turkey, Norway

Much better: Brazil, Australia, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (new→184, 6.5%), South Korea (141→207, 9.5%), China (364→261, 3.5%), New Zealand (new→360, 2.5%), Ontario (499→443, 41.4%), South Africa (771→700, 79.7%), Israel (915→954, 70.3%), Austria (272→1115, 14.8%), Iran (new→3220, 69.7%), California (1568→17799, 96.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (8, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 29.1%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Georgia (14, 68.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 75.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (26, 22.1%); Chad (27, 6.8%); Benin (29, 36.1%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (30, 33.3%); Mongolia (42, 30.0%); Niger (42, 6.1%); Oman (45, 31.7%); Eritrea (49, 29.0%); Cambodia (59, 35.2%); Botswana (72, 57.4%); Barbados (96, 44.2%); Azerbaijan (105, 33.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (112, 28.5%); Mauritania (123, 30.0%); Montenegro (123, 54.9%); Pakistan (123, 17.1%); Belarus (126, 15.4%); Burma (133, 33.9%); Ghana (148, 41.5%); Sri Lanka (153, 26.8%); Uruguay (163, 61.4%); Antigua and Barbuda (176, 29.5%); Zambia (180, 56.8%); Croatia (219, 47.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (228, 59.1%); Armenia (251, 57.7%); Madagascar (253, 60.0%); Slovenia (255, 27.6%); Lesotho (412, 90.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (416, 19.4%); Liberia (576, 79.9%); Luxembourg (628, 53.7%); Yemen (634, 64.7%); Rwanda (658, 90.3%); Sudan (672, 81.9%); Burkina Faso (680, 45.8%); Kazakhstan (794, 73.5%); Kyrgyzstan (858, 54.2%); Egypt (902, 78.7%); Uzbekistan (905, 88.6%); Zimbabwe (906, 96.3%); Somalia (1008, 73.1%); United Arab Emirates (1023, 33.8%); Jordan (1089, 19.3%); Russia (1112, 75.4%); Qatar (1388, 9.8%); Saudi Arabia (1426, 53.5%); Haiti (1514, 72.5%); Malawi (1589, 97.9%); Sierra Leone (1719, 75.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1990, 82.3%); South Sudan (2457, 67.7%); Portugal (2522, 88.2%); Guatemala (3212, 55.5%); Gabon (3839, 83.0%); Kuwait (4805, 50.0%); Tajikistan (6008, 61.2%); Central African Republic (7825, 60.7%); Afghanistan (9011, 69.9%); Dominican Republic (16132, 98.4%); Czechia (20858, 96.1%); Panama (75814, 98.1%); Chile (88019, 20.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): UT (342, 76.1%); MO (503, 91.7%); OH (799, 83.6%); AZ (827, 92.1%); NH (844, 18.8%); VT (905, 21.7%); WY (991, 91.5%); AK (1011, 94.3%); MI (1429, 91.9%); ME (1563, 56.7%); IA (1647, 90.8%); NM (1763, 96.8%); CT (1777, 82.6%); TX (1832, 87.0%); DE (1906, 98.1%); FL (3611, 94.7%); CO (6247, 98.7%); WI (70588, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); PE (1, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); YT (14, 20.0%); SK (80, 52.3%); AB (1844, 36.0%)

India's 64,399 new cases set a new national record, as did South Africa's 14,382.

Germany's decrease is a weekly one; Sunday is always their low day of the week. Compared to last week, its new cases over the weekend are up 33%.

Across Canada: British Columbia was up to 386 active cases from 278 a week ago; Alberta down to 1,125 from 1,382; Saskatchewan down to 168 from 254; Manitoba up to 182 from 70; Ontario down to 2,714 from 3,056; Quebec up to 3,890 from 3,032 (continuing a 23-day streak of daily increases starting at 1,556); the Atlantic provinces down to 8 from 10; the North unchanged with no cases.

Today's chart updates one from a few weeks ago to show on a semilog scale how many active cases there are in each Canadian province and territory.

Ontario saw 79 new cases today, a little up from yesterday's 70. A much larger number of recoveries (148 vs. 107), and two deaths, gave us a decline of 71 active cases to 981, the first time we have been below 1,000 since we started tracking active numbers. There were 6 new cases (down from 13 yesterday) in Ottawa, 17 (13) in Peel, 25 (yesterday's 1 single case appears to have been a reporting delay) in Toronto, 0 (9) in Chatham-Kent, 1 (6) in Southwestern, 0 (6) in Niagara, 9 (4) in York, and fewer than 5 in each of the last two days elsewhere.

Here in Toronto, parents are supposed to start deciding tomorrow whether their children will attend school in person or online in the first quarter. No further details have been announced to how this will take place, such as what website or phone number we should go to, or even which school our children will be attending or what courses they will be taking.

Stay safe.

2020-08-08

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (180HI→184HI), U.S. (313HI→289HI), New York (1744HI→1744HI), Singapore (3→3), Spain (32→32), Malta (49→41), Romania (61→51), Sweden (56→56), India (66→64), Mexico (72→71), Australia (99→99), Japan (102→103), Iran (115→115), Poland (138→132), France (174→143), Denmark (138→151), Indonesia (180→175), Turkey (259→255), U.K. (276→276), Germany (284→286), Norway (341→297), Canada (281→385), Italy (577→523), Malaysia (2077→1894), Thailand (5454→2842), New Zealand (10741→*)

* New Zealand is in the still unusual situation of having had 20-27 active cases for 34 days, but not having had any new ones for four. It's trending toward neither eradication nor 1%, but stuck in limbo in between.

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Malta, Romania, Poland, France, Indonesia, Turkey, Norway

Worse: India

The same: Mexico

Better: Brazil, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Australia, Japan, Iran, U.K., Germany

Much better: Denmark, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: South Korea (158→141, 9.2%), Louisiana (244→169, 76.8%), Austria (214→272, 15.3%), China (684→364, 3.6%), Ontario (359→499, 42.8%), South Africa (510→771, 81.1%), Israel (1081→915, 71.6%), California (1203→1568, 95.7%), Alabama (new→1592, 96.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (9, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 15.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tajikistan (14, 61.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (25, 5.3%); Mongolia (26, 30.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (30, 33.3%); Chad (31, 7.0%); Benin (36, 36.1%); Jordan (40, 16.3%); Eritrea (49, 29.0%); Cambodia (50, 35.2%); Oman (53, 35.7%); Comoros (55, 34.6%); Zambia (59, 45.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (69, 29.1%); Botswana (72, 57.4%); Montenegro (94, 58.5%); Ecuador (101, 46.8%); Slovenia (102, 25.8%); Azerbaijan (106, 37.0%); Croatia (117, 45.8%); Uruguay (129, 63.7%); Pakistan (138, 17.7%); Nigeria (139, 73.0%); Nicaragua (145, 75.2%); Madagascar (146, 59.5%); Bhutan (159, 29.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (165, 19.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (176, 29.5%); Belarus (184, 17.3%); Mauritania (191, 32.7%); Sri Lanka (196, 27.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (227, 59.1%); Armenia (234, 59.3%); Burma (272, 35.6%); Kyrgyzstan (336, 53.4%); Luxembourg (363, 51.3%); Paraguay (414, 68.9%); Kazakhstan (420, 72.9%); Burkina Faso (473, 44.5%); Sierra Leone (477, 74.9%); North Macedonia (549, 83.3%); Rwanda (568, 90.9%); Chile (647, 20.1%); Egypt (804, 79.4%); United Arab Emirates (839, 33.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (888, 80.7%); Russia (967, 76.0%); Somalia (1078, 73.6%); Haiti (1089, 73.0%); Saudi Arabia (1145, 53.6%); Qatar (1319, 9.9%); Uzbekistan (1377, 92.3%); Zimbabwe (1551, 95.6%); Malawi (1556, 95.5%); South Sudan (1569, 66.6%); Sudan (1595, 83.4%); Kuwait (1792, 50.1%); Guatemala (1847, 55.7%); Panama (1855, 97.0%); Liberia (2022, 82.3%); Ghana (2095, 51.4%); Portugal (2531, 88.8%); Gabon (3839, 83.0%); Georgia (4861, 67.8%); Central African Republic (5531, 60.9%); Serbia (9881, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): IN (122, 71.2%); NH (217, 18.9%); WY (305, 85.9%); ME (355, 55.6%); UT (509, 79.4%); PA (524, 77.1%); OH (621, 84.2%); IA (656, 88.4%); MO (1029, 95.0%); AZ (1092, 93.0%); WV (1475, 94.1%); MI (1770, 90.0%); CT (1893, 82.6%); TX (2382, 88.2%); FL (2653, 95.1%); VT (2746, 22.1%); NM (2878, 97.8%); AK (8087, 97.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); PE (2, 0.0%); NB (14, 8.2%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 20.0%); SK (57, 52.3%); AB (542, 36.0%)

The U.S. continues in the bad part of its weekly cycle, but is doing better than last week. Active cases were up 2% nationally in the last week, compared to 6% the previous week, and 11% the week before that.

France, after spending May, June, and most of July trying to cope with about 50,000 active cases on any given day, has climbed steeply over the past two weeks to over 70,000; the government is responding with additional requirements for facial coverings in outdoor public spaces.

New cases in Ontario remained below 100 for the sixth day, and dropped for the second day, down to 70, the lowest since March 22nd. 13 (down from 15 yesterday) in Peel, 13 (15) in Ottawa, 9 (6) in Chatham-Kent, 6 (7) in Southwestern, 6 (6) in Niagara, 4 (6) in York, 1 (10) in Toronto, and no more than five on either of the past two days elsewhere.

Toronto only publishes data now on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, and full data only on Wednesdays, so we won't know anything more about that one sole case in the city today, but the last time we had a single new case reported was on March 10th, so that's very good news.

Today's chart shows how significant a contribution each country has made to the number of active cases in the world on any given day, limited to those countries who have hit 30,000 in a day at least once. You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-08-07

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (212HI→180HI), Alabama (166HI→223HI), U.S. (310HI→313HI), New York (1854HI→1744HI), Singapore (3→3), Spain (32→32), Malta (69→49), Sweden (79→56), Romania (61→61), India (68→66), Australia (98→99), Japan (108→102), Iran (114→115), Denmark (272→138), Poland (150→138), France (190→174), Indonesia (198→180), Turkey (270→259), U.K. (271→276), Canada (327→281), Germany (303→284), Norway (286→341), Italy (778→577), Thailand (5454→5454)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, Malta, Sweden, Japan, Denmark, Poland, France, Indonesia, Turkey, Canada, Germany

Worse: India

Better: U.S., Singapore, Spain, Romania, Australia, Iran, U.K.

Much better: Alabama, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (184→96, 2.5%), South Korea (197→158, 9.8%), Austria (235→214, 14.8%), Louisiana (224→244, 76.8%), Toronto (new→253, 8.7%), Ontario (531→359, 43.3%), Malaysia (287→491, 7.7%), South Africa (794→510, 81.4%), China (3970→684, 3.8%), Israel (1808→1081, 72.9%), Mexico (304→1146, 87.8%), California (1131→1203, 95.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (85): Brunei, Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (10, 0.0%); Comoros (14, 47.1%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mali (14, 69.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 47.6%); Seychelles (14, 2.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Jordan (25, 16.9%); Mongolia (26, 30.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (27, 29.5%); Chad (30, 7.0%); Niger (30, 5.3%); Benin (36, 36.1%); Cambodia (39, 33.0%); Ecuador (49, 42.8%); Oman (63, 40.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (74, 31.6%); Zambia (87, 52.7%); Croatia (102, 46.5%); Azerbaijan (107, 40.4%); Slovenia (111, 26.9%); Montenegro (119, 60.9%); Madagascar (120, 61.8%); Luxembourg (125, 53.9%); Nigeria (126, 71.6%); Burma (136, 34.7%); Uruguay (143, 66.7%); Nicaragua (145, 75.2%); Bhutan (159, 29.1%); Uganda (159, 24.2%); Paraguay (160, 69.9%); Pakistan (176, 18.9%); Botswana (193, 71.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (224, 20.3%); Ghana (279, 48.3%); Kazakhstan (282, 73.0%); Armenia (292, 61.7%); Kyrgyzstan (314, 54.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (347, 63.0%); Belarus (362, 18.8%); Barbados (419, 50.0%); North Macedonia (457, 82.6%); Central African Republic (518, 59.9%); Rwanda (537, 91.2%); Gabon (559, 81.4%); Guatemala (560, 56.8%); Mauritania (565, 36.2%); Sierra Leone (578, 74.7%); Andorra (631, 15.0%); Chile (651, 20.0%); Sri Lanka (676, 30.3%); Uzbekistan (708, 92.7%); Yemen (747, 62.4%); United Arab Emirates (784, 34.1%); Somalia (804, 73.6%); Egypt (837, 80.4%); Sudan (851, 81.8%); Saudi Arabia (887, 54.1%); Hungary (1007, 34.1%); Kuwait (1140, 50.3%); Panama (1398, 96.6%); Qatar (1600, 10.0%); Georgia (1628, 67.8%); Burkina Faso (1629, 44.5%); Russia (1654, 76.9%); Malawi (1862, 96.9%); Portugal (1942, 88.6%); Afghanistan (2460, 69.7%); Suriname (2542, 89.2%); South Sudan (2758, 67.8%); Liberia (4123, 83.9%); Serbia (18393, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): VT (14, 23.1%); IN (233, 66.7%); WY (295, 90.6%); ME (296, 57.6%); IA (401, 89.7%); WV (430, 92.7%); OH (449, 85.0%); NH (689, 20.6%); UT (754, 82.2%); ND (948, 94.2%); OK (1108, 95.9%); AZ (1176, 95.5%); DE (1456, 96.8%); PA (1651, 76.5%); CT (2007, 82.6%); FL (2166, 95.4%); NM (2327, 98.3%); TX (2419, 88.1%); AK (2841, 97.8%); WI (3480, 98.0%); TN (3868, 95.3%); SC (17126, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); PE (3, 0.0%); NB (14, 8.2%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 20.0%); SK (57, 52.3%); AB (148, 36.0%)

Brazil's worsening is weekly cyclical; they are still improving gradually week-on-week.

The situation is still genuinely worsening in Malta, with 49 new cases today, the most in a week and a half. The best that I can say about this is that they are likely catching a large proportion of the cases in the new outbreak, by aggressive testing, and there is a reasonable chance that they may be able to bring it under control.

India broke 60,000 new cases for the first time today. Italy had its first 500+ day since June 24th, reportedly due to residents returning from holidays elsewhere in Europe. Japan has had two consecutive days of more than 1,500 new cases for the first time.

There were 88 new cases in Ontario today. That's 15 (7 yesterday) in Peel, 15 (19) in Ottawa, 10 (30) in Toronto, 7 (7) in Southwestern, 6 (5) in Niagara, 6 (10) in Chatham-Kent, 6 (1) in York, 5 (2) in Durham, 4 (5) in Windsor-Essex, and fewer and 5 both days elsewhere.

Toronto had 33 new cases over two days, which is typical of recent weeks. We had no deaths, which has driven our estimated case fatality rate to 1.3%, very close to the theoretical infection fatality rate of 1%. That leaves us with only 260 confirmed active cases in the city. We are at about 6 new daily cases per 100 active cases, which is a little below replacement rate, and should continue to drive active case numbers down.

For today's chart, I prepared a choropleth showing how long it has been since the most recent sporadic case in each Toronto neighbourhood, using Wednesday's full case data from Open Data Toronto. I may as they say have jinxed things though, as in the interim, there has been a new sporadic case in our neighbourhood, the first since June 2nd. I won't know anything more about it until at least next Wednesday's data release. Here's today's chart.

Stay safe.

2020-08-06

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.S. (294HI→310HI), New York (1890HI→1854HI), Singapore (4→3), Spain (35→32), Romania (61→61), India (67→68), Malta (73→69), Sweden (79→79), Australia (86→98), Japan (96→108), Iran (114→114), Poland (160→150), France (190→190), Indonesia (206→198), Turkey (281→270), U.K. (289→271), Denmark (272→272), Norway (468→286), Germany (417→303), Canada (345→327), Italy (909→778), Thailand (4427→5454)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malta, Poland, Indonesia, Turkey, U.K., Norway, Germany, Canada

Worse: Spain

The same: Singapore

Better: U.S., Romania, India, Sweden, Iran, France, Denmark

Much better: Australia, Japan

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (184, no new data, 2.5%), South Korea (197, no new data, 10.1%), Louisiana (295→224, 73.7%), Austria (235, no new data, 14.8%), Malaysia (287, no new data, 7.6%), Mexico (304, no new data, 83.7%), Ontario (628→531, 44.2%), South Africa (794, no new data, 82.6%), California (2762→1131, 95.3%), Israel (1808, no new data, 74.0%), China (3970, no new data, 3.9%), Brazil (6567, no new data, 98.0%), Alabama (new→7351, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (85): Brunei, Dominica, Holy See (eradicated); San Marino (1, 0.0%); Mauritius (11, 0.0%); Botswana (14, 81.7%); Burundi (14, 75.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 47.6%); Seychelles (14, 2.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mongolia (26, 30.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (27, 29.5%); Chad (32, 7.2%); Jordan (35, 20.3%); Benin (36, 36.1%); Niger (39, 5.1%); Ecuador (42, 38.0%); Zambia (63, 52.7%); Oman (72, 42.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (76, 36.8%); Paraguay (88, 60.7%); Comoros (99, 39.4%); Fiji (99, 55.1%); Azerbaijan (111, 43.8%); Sri Lanka (112, 30.7%); Madagascar (118, 63.3%); Uganda (119, 22.1%); Nigeria (121, 71.1%); Montenegro (145, 64.9%); Nicaragua (145, 75.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (158, 20.9%); Bhutan (159, 29.1%); Slovenia (166, 28.5%); Uruguay (168, 68.3%); Croatia (186, 52.4%); Luxembourg (196, 56.6%); Burma (217, 37.2%); Pakistan (225, 20.0%); Kyrgyzstan (226, 55.1%); Cambodia (250, 46.6%); Mauritania (261, 36.2%); Andorra (308, 14.6%); Sudan (333, 81.8%); Kazakhstan (434, 75.4%); Guatemala (467, 57.2%); Hungary (494, 34.1%); Rwanda (507, 92.2%); Belarus (510, 19.7%); Malawi (516, 93.8%); Gabon (559, 81.4%); Armenia (561, 65.6%); Central African Republic (604, 60.5%); Saudi Arabia (624, 54.7%); Uzbekistan (714, 92.6%); Chile (729, 20.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (741, 66.2%); Yemen (744, 62.2%); Kuwait (764, 50.9%); Ghana (775, 52.4%); United Arab Emirates (788, 34.8%); Egypt (900, 81.5%); North Macedonia (900, 86.4%); Panama (1086, 95.4%); Somalia (1148, 74.2%); Burkina Faso (1170, 47.4%); Qatar (1536, 10.0%); Bahrain (2018, 48.6%); Portugal (2078, 89.0%); Bangladesh (2678, 98.2%); Afghanistan (3117, 70.0%); Togo (3703, 98.0%); Georgia (4973, 69.1%); Russia (5152, 77.9%); Sierra Leone (5238, 76.4%); Mali (6480, 69.0%); Haiti (7664, 73.5%); Honduras (11023, 96.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): NC (172, 74.7%); ME (226, 55.7%); IN (234, 64.7%); MS (259, 84.9%); WY (375, 92.8%); NH (414, 20.4%); OH (456, 85.8%); MT (561, 94.4%); IA (594, 92.0%); OK (688, 93.5%); TN (704, 93.8%); UT (881, 84.5%); AK (1137, 97.1%); TX (1341, 88.9%); VT (1444, 23.0%); FL (1739, 96.1%); AZ (1827, 97.0%); WI (1950, 97.9%); MN (2305, 60.7%); WV (3534, 94.1%); NM (6511, 98.9%); MA (7819, 31.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); PE (4, 0.0%); NL (12, 0.0%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 20.0%); SK (110, 63.6%); AB (137, 35.4%)

Malta recorded 20 new cases, 8 associated with a known cluster, 10 new sporadic cases, all apparently domestic (not refugee/migrant). The U.S. CDC is now recommending against non-essential travel to Malta; although, to be fair, Americans without ties to Malta have not been welcome there now for some time.

The U.K. has seen steadily increasing active cases over the past month or so, creeping back up to about 85,000 now from a low of 77,000, heading back up to their earlier peak of about 95,000.

Germany had its first day in a month and a half with more than 1,000 new cases. This appears to be part of a general worsening in Europe since the premature relaxing of pandemic precautions.

Ontario was down 64 active cases to 1,125 today, about the same difference as yesterday, because although our 95 new cases was nine more than yesterday, we had 13 more recoveries than yesterday (and no deaths either day). This is somewhat good news, although of course even better would be if we could bring our average new daily cases down from the neighbourhood of 100. Today's new cases included 1 in York (down from 10), 5 in Niagara (5), 5 in Windsor-Essex (5), 7 in Peel (11), 7 in Southwestern (4), 10 in Chatham-Kent (14), 19 cases in Ottawa (up from 16), and 30 in Toronto (18). The rest of the public health units had fewer than five new cases on each of the past two days. I suspect some of the new cases in Toronto may be staff at my aunts' nursing home (Castleview-Wychwood Towers), which is on lockdown again after yet another outbreak. I feel strangely lucky that there have been no cases in my neighbourhood outside of my nursing home since June 2nd, and strangely unlucky that two of the three nursing homes in Toronto that are still on outbreak status are my aunts' and the nearest one to my house.

Today's chart shows how many non-outbreak cases have been reported in each Toronto neighbourhood in the past Toronto data week (Tuesday to Monday).

Stay safe.

2020-08-05

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (166HI→166HI), U.S. (272HI→294HI), New York (1890HI→1890HI), Singapore (9→4), Spain (32→35), Romania (61→61), India (65→67), Malta (89→73), Sweden (72→79), Australia (101→86), Japan (100→96), Iran (115→114), Poland (157→160), France (201→190), Indonesia (212→206), Denmark (272→272), Turkey (293→281), Canada (371→345), Germany (477→417), Norway (510→468), Italy (1001→909), Thailand (4419→4427)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Singapore, Malta, Australia, Japan, France, Indonesia, Turkey, Canada

The same: Iran

Better: Alabama, U.S., Romania, India, Poland, Denmark

Much better: Spain, Sweden

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (new→184, 2.5%), South Korea (458→197, 10.1%), Toronto (190→213, 9.2%), Austria (10376→235, 14.8%), Malaysia (346→287, 7.6%), Louisiana (new→295, 71.0%), Mexico (271→304, 83.7%), Ontario (734→628, 45.3%), South Africa (549→794, 82.6%), Israel (new→1808, 74.0%), California (99118→2762, 97.0%), China (new→3970, 3.9%), Brazil (5817→6567, 98.0%), U.K. (new→130108, 88.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (85): Brunei, Dominica, Holy See (eradicated); San Marino (1, 0.0%); Mauritius (11, 0.0%); Botswana (14, 81.7%); Burundi (14, 75.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 47.6%); Seychelles (14, 2.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mongolia (26, 30.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (27, 29.5%); Chad (32, 7.2%); Jordan (35, 20.3%); Benin (36, 36.1%); Niger (39, 5.1%); Ecuador (42, 38.0%); Zambia (63, 52.7%); Oman (72, 42.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (76, 36.8%); Paraguay (88, 60.7%); Comoros (99, 39.4%); Fiji (99, 55.1%); Azerbaijan (111, 43.8%); Sri Lanka (112, 30.7%); Madagascar (118, 63.3%); Uganda (119, 22.1%); Nigeria (121, 71.1%); Montenegro (145, 64.9%); Nicaragua (145, 75.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (158, 20.9%); Bhutan (159, 29.1%); Slovenia (166, 28.5%); Uruguay (168, 68.3%); Croatia (186, 52.4%); Luxembourg (196, 56.6%); Burma (217, 37.2%); Pakistan (225, 20.0%); Kyrgyzstan (226, 55.1%); Cambodia (250, 46.6%); Mauritania (261, 36.2%); Andorra (308, 14.6%); Sudan (333, 81.8%); Kazakhstan (434, 75.4%); Guatemala (467, 57.2%); Hungary (494, 34.1%); Rwanda (507, 92.2%); Belarus (510, 19.7%); Malawi (516, 93.8%); Gabon (559, 81.4%); Armenia (561, 65.6%); Central African Republic (604, 60.5%); Saudi Arabia (624, 54.7%); Uzbekistan (714, 92.6%); Chile (729, 20.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (741, 66.2%); Yemen (744, 62.2%); Kuwait (764, 50.9%); Ghana (775, 52.4%); United Arab Emirates (788, 34.8%); Egypt (900, 81.5%); North Macedonia (900, 86.4%); Panama (1086, 95.4%); Somalia (1148, 74.2%); Burkina Faso (1170, 47.4%); Qatar (1536, 10.0%); Bahrain (2018, 48.6%); Portugal (2078, 89.0%); Bangladesh (2678, 98.2%); Afghanistan (3117, 70.0%); Togo (3703, 98.0%); Georgia (4973, 69.1%); Russia (5152, 77.9%); Sierra Leone (5238, 76.4%); Mali (6480, 69.0%); Haiti (7664, 73.5%); Honduras (11023, 96.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (21): NC (147, 68.7%); MS (231, 80.9%); NH (233, 19.4%); IN (346, 67.1%); MN (352, 55.4%); VT (356, 22.2%); ME (456, 57.7%); OH (581, 88.1%); UT (820, 85.5%); TN (837, 93.3%); OK (848, 95.1%); WY (964, 94.1%); FL (1309, 96.1%); TX (1615, 89.4%); IA (1730, 93.1%); AZ (1838, 97.5%); MT (2497, 92.7%); SC (2548, 98.2%); NM (5731, 99.0%); ID (10455, 99.4%); WI (56511, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); PE (5, 0.0%); NL (13, 0.0%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 60.0%); SK (161, 70.1%); AB (163, 36.7%)

In two weeks, Malta has gone from 5 active cases to 249, a new record. A large majority of today's 36 new cases (at least 29) are refugees, but that does leave a nontrivial number of community cases. I am morbidly curious whether the rise in cases among migrants is due to an increase in the number of migrants, or an increase in their rate of infection.

Singapore saw a slightly worse day than usual today, with 908 new cases, of whom 903 were migrant workers, 4 were travellers, and 1 was a case of community transmission. Inside the foreign worker dormitories, approximately one person in six has been confirmed with COVID-19; outside, approximately 1 in 2,400. Impressively, they have had only 27 fatalities, out of 2,185 + 51,340 cases.

86 cases, 146 recoveries and no deaths in Ontario made for 60 fewer active cases, or 1,189. The new cases today were in Toronto (18), Ottawa (16), Chatham-Kent (14), Peel (11), York (10); the remaining 17 were scattered across the Central West and South West, with only 2 in Windsor-Essex.

Toronto saw a very slight drop of 12 active cases to 275 over two days. Our neighbourhood hasn't seen a sporadic case in more than two months now. The worst off over the last three weeks have been West Humber-Clairville (17 cases) in the far northwest, and Waterfront Communities-The Island (16 cases).

I am continuing to experiment with a free data visualisation website called DataWrapper; today's chart was produced using their tool and shows days to 1% for every country in the world, based on JHU data.

You may be able to view it interactively here.

Stay safe.

2020-08-04

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (158HI→110HI), Alabama (166HI→166HI), U.S. (246HI→272HI), New York (1966HI→1890HI), Israel (10→9), Singapore (9→9), Spain (32→32), Romania (59→61), India (63→65), Sweden (72→72), Malta (97→89), Japan (89→100), Australia (89→101), Iran (115→115), Poland (158→157), France (195→201), Indonesia (206→212), Denmark (285→272), U.K. (273→301), Canada (449→371), Germany (449→477), Norway (510→510), Italy (824→1001), New Zealand (2678→3064), China (6586→11262)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Louisiana, Malta, Denmark

The same: Israel, Poland

Better: Alabama, Singapore, Spain, Romania, India, Sweden, Iran, France, Indonesia

Much better: U.S., Japan, Australia, U.K.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (223→186, 8.3%), Mexico (new→271, 79.4%), Malaysia (519→346, 8.0%), South Korea (838→458, 11.2%), South Africa (833→549, 86.6%), Ontario (1244→734, 46.5%), Brazil (new→5817, 95.5%), Turkey (5748→5973, 15.1%), Austria (12948→10376, 17.2%), California (new→99118, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Brunei, Dominica, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (3, 0.0%); Mauritius (13, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 15.0%); Bhutan (14, 31.5%); Botswana (14, 81.7%); Cameroon (14, 36.9%); Chad (14, 11.8%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 92.4%); Oman (14, 74.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (33, 31.8%); Cambodia (37, 48.9%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (46, 47.6%); Jordan (57, 25.8%); Sri Lanka (57, 31.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (70, 45.1%); Fiji (99, 55.1%); Paraguay (107, 74.3%); Ecuador (125, 70.3%); Azerbaijan (126, 51.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (129, 22.2%); Zambia (152, 76.4%); Montenegro (158, 81.5%); Kyrgyzstan (162, 59.9%); Bahrain (177, 46.8%); Mauritania (177, 38.2%); Benin (178, 73.2%); Burma (180, 38.0%); Luxembourg (187, 55.8%); Madagascar (218, 74.8%); Belarus (263, 21.0%); North Macedonia (300, 88.8%); Central African Republic (322, 61.2%); Ghana (329, 52.3%); Saudi Arabia (330, 55.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (332, 69.1%); Cabo Verde (358, 63.5%); Guatemala (372, 56.9%); Slovenia (411, 32.5%); Mongolia (416, 57.3%); Guinea-Bissau (423, 65.1%); Gabon (440, 83.7%); Croatia (457, 58.2%); Kuwait (499, 51.2%); Armenia (549, 69.8%); United Arab Emirates (765, 35.3%); Yemen (908, 64.1%); Uzbekistan (946, 95.0%); Georgia (987, 68.1%); Egypt (1160, 83.8%); Sudan (1177, 85.3%); Rwanda (1382, 95.8%); Kazakhstan (1419, 80.9%); West Bank and Gaza (1644, 97.3%); Honduras (1720, 95.7%); Portugal (1857, 90.3%); Hungary (1876, 34.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1899, 83.6%); Nigeria (2012, 97.7%); Somalia (2620, 75.6%); Russia (3674, 80.1%); Bangladesh (3703, 98.0%); Pakistan (3869, 24.0%); Qatar (10013, 10.2%); Afghanistan (38719, 70.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): ME (14, 59.9%); VT (142, 22.2%); NC (151, 65.4%); MS (212, 75.9%); MN (427, 57.5%); OH (530, 90.1%); MT (543, 89.1%); UT (733, 85.8%); NH (892, 21.3%); OK (1398, 94.8%); TX (1980, 90.0%); FL (2312, 97.0%); ID (2397, 98.0%); AZ (2927, 97.1%); TN (3610, 95.0%); WY (4050, 94.1%); NM (4873, 99.2%); SC (6248, 98.2%); IA (74306, 93.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); PE (6, 0.0%); NB (12, 0.0%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 60.0%); NL (25, 1.6%); SK (170, 78.8%); AB (205, 38.1%)

Canada saw a steep rise in cases today, but only because British Columbia and Alberta took a three-day weekend off from reporting numbers. Spreading their numbers out over four days, they are showing moderate improvement, as are all provinces.

The apparent problems in Denmark and Louisiana appear to be similar issues with catching up after gaps in reporting.

On the other hand, the apparent improvement in Japan is also an artifact, in this case of one really bad day falling out of the sliding window, and being replaced by one not quite as bad. They are still seeing a (weekly) average of more than 1,300 new cases a day.

According to my own estimates of active cases in the United States, based on JHU data, yesterday might have seen peak active cases there, with today's number showing a drop of 0.04% for the first time.

Ontario saw a seventh straight day of declining active cases, for the first time in a month. We are down to 1,249 cases, a level that we haven't seen since active cases first started being reported, and likely hasn't been attained since March. No deaths in the last two days brings our estimated recent case fatality ratio to 1.01%, suggesting that there aren't a lot of undetected cases in the province. Our biggest problem is that we are still seeing a little under 100 new cases a day, which all else being equal is enough to keep us at equilibrium.

Toronto is only reporting three days a week, but since they give us full case-level data once a week, it gives us a lot to think about in the meantime. Today's charts show the number of outbreak cases and the number of community cases in Toronto reported from July 1st onward. Our neighbourhood is one of the hardest hit due to the outbreak at the local Christian retirement home, but has had no community cases (or any other cases) in more than two months.

Stay safe.

2020-08-03

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (-43→136HI), Brazil (-12→199HI), California (-12→200HI), Alabama (-30→223HI), U.S. (-21→229HI), New York (-437.3→1795HI), Singapore (10→9), Malta (40→39), Romania (52→52), Spain (56→56), Mexico (58→60), India (63→62), Australia (172→75), Japan (101→101), Iran (114→118), Poland (155→154), France (195→195), Indonesia (173→197), U.K. (288→289), Denmark (304→304), Canada (341→387), Germany (350→432), Norway (604→1098), New Zealand (2675→2675), Malaysia (3050→2982), China (5325→5325)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Louisiana, Brazil, California, Alabama, U.S., New York, Australia

The same: Singapore, Malta, India, Poland

Better: Romania, Spain, Mexico, Japan, Iran, France, U.K., Denmark

Much better: Indonesia, Canada, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (189→185, 75.8%), Thailand (2824→300, 8.2%), South Korea (266→328, 11.7%), Ontario (444→492, 47.1%), South Africa (724→641, 88.0%), Turkey (1575→3210, 15.2%), Italy (3183→3339, 14.7%), Austria (new→25535, 17.0%), Sweden (15002→30099, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Brunei, Dominica, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (5, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 31.5%); Fiji (14, 61.2%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 4.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 92.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (31, 50.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (46, 47.6%); Eritrea (59, 39.1%); Sri Lanka (82, 38.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (83, 55.5%); Cameroon (85, 36.9%); Jordan (95, 34.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (99, 72.8%); Seychelles (100, 37.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (101, 23.7%); Mauritania (133, 40.7%); Belarus (135, 21.2%); Philippines (163, 74.8%); Azerbaijan (164, 60.4%); Montenegro (172, 80.7%); Uganda (176, 26.5%); Benin (193, 73.2%); Cabo Verde (196, 60.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (205, 69.5%); Kyrgyzstan (209, 65.2%); Bahrain (252, 49.4%); Guinea-Bissau (285, 65.1%); Liberia (287, 81.0%); Madagascar (330, 84.2%); Saudi Arabia (331, 58.8%); Armenia (346, 70.3%); North Macedonia (378, 89.9%); Gabon (397, 86.5%); Mongolia (416, 57.3%); Botswana (420, 81.7%); Burma (470, 40.4%); Oman (474, 74.4%); Central African Republic (494, 63.7%); Slovenia (528, 32.9%); Kuwait (613, 53.5%); Haiti (643, 73.8%); Pakistan (646, 24.1%); Russia (757, 78.6%); Ghana (835, 54.8%); Somalia (1015, 76.2%); Egypt (1216, 85.5%); Chile (1230, 21.2%); Honduras (1427, 97.1%); United Arab Emirates (1675, 36.5%); Uzbekistan (1752, 97.8%); Portugal (1929, 90.8%); Croatia (1973, 61.1%); Yemen (1993, 64.5%); Mali (4346, 69.3%); Nigeria (5083, 99.2%); Guatemala (15964, 62.3%); Kazakhstan (105047, 83.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): NH (14, 21.7%); VT (157, 23.3%); VI (169, 44.2%); UT (608, 88.4%); OH (1367, 94.1%); TX (1523, 92.3%); PA (2522, 77.9%); ID (9000, 99.6%); FL (24970, 99.0%); DE (37166, 99.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); PE (8, 0.0%); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 2.1%); NS (14, 0.9%); YT (14, 60.0%); SK (106, 79.1%); AB (1015, 44.4%)

As noted above, I have decided to replace the confusing negative days-to-one-percent figures in the first paragraph with days to 40%, that being the lowest threshold as which anyone has suggested that herd immunity could begin to slow transmission, if this coronavirus is different from all other previously known ones and is capable of stimulating a long-term immune response in patients who have been exposed and recovered. Those figures are labelled HI for Herd Immunity.

Australia's active cases have multiplied ninefold in a month. Victoria has declared a state of disaster. Beginning Wednesday, residents will only be allowed to leave their houses to go shopping for essentials, do work or study that cannot be done from home, give or receive care, for exercise, or a fairly small list of other exceptions.

I noticed that recent versions of Excel let you do some types of geographical maps, so today I prepared choropleths showing active cases per million population, and rate of change in active cases. Note that North Korea and Turkmenistan do not officially have COVID-19, and French Guiana and Greenland are apparently considered to be independent countries by Microsoft.

Ontario new cases dropped for a third consecutive day (or as one newspaper put it, surpassed 100 for a third consecutive day), and active cases dropped a scant 7 cases to 1,312. New cases per active case are still running at 9% though, which is above equilibrium, so we were lucky that we lost any cases at all. The busiest health units were: York (20, up from 7), Ottawa (16, down from 17), Chatham-Kent and Peel (14, up from 4 and down from 33), Windsor-Essex (13, down from 16) and Toronto (9, down from 16), Southwestern (8, up from 7). All other regions had fewer than five new cases.

That's the first time that Toronto has logged fewer than 10 new cases in a day since March 18th. Keep up the good work!

Stay safe.

2020-08-02

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (-43→136HI), Brazil (-12→199HI), California (-12→200HI), Alabama (-30→223HI), U.S. (-21→229HI), New York (-437.3→1795HI), Singapore (10→9), Malta (40→39), Romania (52→52), Spain (56→56), Mexico (58→60), India (63→62), Australia (172→75), Japan (101→101), Iran (114→118), Poland (155→154), France (195→195), Indonesia (173→197), U.K. (288→289), Denmark (304→304), Canada (341→387), Germany (350→432), Norway (604→1098), New Zealand (2675→2675), Malaysia (3050→2982), China (5325→5325)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Louisiana, Brazil, California, Alabama, U.S., New York, Australia

The same: Singapore, Malta, India, Poland

Better: Romania, Spain, Mexico, Japan, Iran, France, U.K., Denmark

Much better: Indonesia, Canada, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (189→185, 75.8%), Thailand (2824→300, 8.2%), South Korea (266→328, 11.7%), Ontario (444→492, 47.1%), South Africa (724→641, 88.0%), Turkey (1575→3210, 15.2%), Italy (3183→3339, 14.7%), Austria (new→25535, 17.0%), Sweden (15002→30099, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Brunei, Dominica, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (5, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 31.5%); Fiji (14, 61.2%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 4.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 92.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (31, 50.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (46, 47.6%); Eritrea (59, 39.1%); Sri Lanka (82, 38.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (83, 55.5%); Cameroon (85, 36.9%); Jordan (95, 34.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (99, 72.8%); Seychelles (100, 37.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (101, 23.7%); Mauritania (133, 40.7%); Belarus (135, 21.2%); Philippines (163, 74.8%); Azerbaijan (164, 60.4%); Montenegro (172, 80.7%); Uganda (176, 26.5%); Benin (193, 73.2%); Cabo Verde (196, 60.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (205, 69.5%); Kyrgyzstan (209, 65.2%); Bahrain (252, 49.4%); Guinea-Bissau (285, 65.1%); Liberia (287, 81.0%); Madagascar (330, 84.2%); Saudi Arabia (331, 58.8%); Armenia (346, 70.3%); North Macedonia (378, 89.9%); Gabon (397, 86.5%); Mongolia (416, 57.3%); Botswana (420, 81.7%); Burma (470, 40.4%); Oman (474, 74.4%); Central African Republic (494, 63.7%); Slovenia (528, 32.9%); Kuwait (613, 53.5%); Haiti (643, 73.8%); Pakistan (646, 24.1%); Russia (757, 78.6%); Ghana (835, 54.8%); Somalia (1015, 76.2%); Egypt (1216, 85.5%); Chile (1230, 21.2%); Honduras (1427, 97.1%); United Arab Emirates (1675, 36.5%); Uzbekistan (1752, 97.8%); Portugal (1929, 90.8%); Croatia (1973, 61.1%); Yemen (1993, 64.5%); Mali (4346, 69.3%); Nigeria (5083, 99.2%); Guatemala (15964, 62.3%); Kazakhstan (105047, 83.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): NH (14, 21.7%); VT (157, 23.3%); VI (169, 44.2%); UT (608, 88.4%); OH (1367, 94.1%); TX (1523, 92.3%); PA (2522, 77.9%); ID (9000, 99.6%); FL (24970, 99.0%); DE (37166, 99.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); PE (8, 0.0%); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 2.1%); NS (14, 0.9%); YT (14, 60.0%); SK (106, 79.1%); AB (1015, 44.4%)

As noted above, I have decided to replace the confusing negative days-to-one-percent figures in the first paragraph with days to 40%, that being the lowest threshold as which anyone has suggested that herd immunity could begin to slow transmission, if this coronavirus is different from all other previously known ones and is capable of stimulating a long-term immune response in patients who have been exposed and recovered. Those figures are labelled HI for Herd Immunity.

Australia's active cases have multiplied ninefold in a month. Victoria has declared a state of disaster. Beginning Wednesday, residents will only be allowed to leave their houses to go shopping for essentials, do work or study that cannot be done from home, give or receive care, for exercise, or a fairly small list of other exceptions.

I noticed that recent versions of Excel let you do some types of geographical maps, so today I prepared choropleths showing active cases per million population, and rate of change in active cases. Note that North Korea and Turkmenistan do not officially have COVID-19, and French Guiana and Greenland are apparently considered to be independent countries by Microsoft.

Ontario new cases dropped for a third consecutive day (or as one newspaper put it, surpassed 100 for a third consecutive day), and active cases dropped a scant 7 cases to 1,312. New cases per active case are still running at 9% though, which is above equilibrium, so we were lucky that we lost any cases at all. The busiest health units were: York (20, up from 7), Ottawa (16, down from 17), Chatham-Kent and Peel (14, up from 4 and down from 33), Windsor-Essex (13, down from 16) and Toronto (9, down from 16), Southwestern (8, up from 7). All other regions had fewer than five new cases.

That's the first time that Toronto has logged fewer than 10 new cases in a day since March 18th. Keep up the good work!

Stay safe.

2020-08-01

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-471.3→-437.3), Alabama (-30→-30), U.S. (-21→-21), Brazil (-11→-12), California (-12→-12), Singapore (11→10), Malta (44→40), Romania (52→52), Spain (56→56), Mexico (63→58), India (64→63), Japan (98→101), Iran (114→114), Poland (165→155), Australia (86→172), Indonesia (167→173), France (195→195), Austria (211→211), U.K. (306→288), Denmark (304→304), Canada (318→341), Germany (351→350), Norway (703→604), New Zealand (3564→2675), Malaysia (1775→3050), China (4575→5325)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malta, Mexico, Poland, U.K.

The same: Singapore, India, Germany

Better: Romania, Spain, Japan, Iran, Indonesia, France, Austria, Denmark, Canada

Much better: Australia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (185→189, 75.9%), Louisiana (282→245, 83.2%), South Korea (176→266, 11.7%), Ontario (613→444, 47.9%), South Africa (973→724, 91.6%), Turkey (1342→1575, 15.2%), Thailand (new→2824, 8.8%), Italy (1496→3183, 14.7%), Sweden (2544→15002, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Brunei, Dominica, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (6, 0.0%); Fiji (14, 61.2%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 4.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (42, 13.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (46, 47.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (50, 24.0%); Sri Lanka (55, 43.6%); Eritrea (59, 39.1%); Belize (62, 80.0%); Jordan (90, 33.2%); Cameroon (93, 36.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (99, 72.8%); Seychelles (100, 37.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (110, 62.2%); Cabo Verde (126, 59.3%); Belarus (142, 21.6%); Bhutan (159, 29.1%); Uganda (170, 25.7%); Montenegro (173, 78.5%); Azerbaijan (186, 64.1%); Benin (193, 73.2%); Mauritania (193, 43.3%); Mongolia (205, 55.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (259, 73.7%); Ghana (279, 50.9%); Croatia (282, 60.2%); Kyrgyzstan (283, 72.2%); Madagascar (284, 81.4%); Armenia (307, 72.6%); Saudi Arabia (308, 59.3%); Oman (333, 74.4%); Liberia (381, 80.9%); Cambodia (386, 85.2%); North Macedonia (395, 90.2%); Botswana (420, 81.7%); Guinea-Bissau (421, 67.2%); Bahrain (459, 52.3%); Pakistan (507, 24.1%); Russia (723, 79.8%); Haiti (738, 74.3%); Gabon (832, 90.4%); Chile (855, 21.6%); Burkina Faso (871, 36.8%); Burma (953, 41.2%); Central African Republic (1003, 67.0%); Kuwait (1113, 54.2%); Egypt (1294, 86.4%); South Sudan (1299, 59.7%); Kazakhstan (1407, 83.3%); Portugal (1508, 91.2%); Philippines (1660, 92.5%); Sierra Leone (1765, 76.8%); Somalia (2793, 76.5%); Panama (2943, 98.5%); United Arab Emirates (3120, 37.1%); Yemen (4948, 64.3%); Mali (6512, 69.3%); Honduras (7556, 97.7%); Guatemala (10068, 61.8%); Uzbekistan (37041, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): NH (14, 21.7%); VT (146, 23.7%); VI (368, 44.2%); UT (479, 89.8%); OH (1145, 94.8%); TX (2471, 92.3%); PA (2841, 77.3%); WY (5578, 99.2%); IA (15103, 95.2%); OK (87717, 99.5%); WA (1882061, 96.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT (eradicated); PE (9, 0.0%); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 2.1%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 60.0%); SK (224, 81.6%); MB (296, 37.3%); AB (4011, 44.4%)

Ontario active cases dropped another 41 cases to 1,319 today, the fourth consecutive decline, based on new cases of 124 slightly above the week's average of 113, 2 deaths, and 163 resolved cases (greater than the 142 average). The most cases yesterday were in Peel (33), followed by Ottawa (17), Toronto and Windsor-Essex (16), Southwestern and York (7); all other health units had fewer than 5 new cases.

I don't have new Toronto data today, because it's the weekend, but I was curious if age distributions differed by space as well as with time. Displaying all 140+ neighbourhoods was a little cluttered, so I grouped the neighbourhoods into 15 regions to see how median case ages changed by region over time. Early on, they're dominated by whichever small number of people happened to be diagnosed. In the middle, in May, they all converged in the 40s (except for eastern Scarborough, whose median was in the 30s). In July, they diverged into four decades: median patients in Willowdale and Don Mills are older, in their 50s; downtown, they are thirty years younger, in their 20s; everywhere else, somewhere in between.

Stay safe.

2020-07-31

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-476.0→-471.3), Alabama (-30→-30), U.S. (-20→-21), California (-11→-12), Brazil (-12→-11), Singapore (11→11), Malta (48→44), Romania (53→52), Spain (94→56), India (65→64), Australia (88→86), Japan (106→98), Iran (120→114), Poland (191→165), France (217→195), Austria (220→211), Denmark (340→304), U.K. (339→306), Canada (287→318), Germany (402→351), Norway (873→703), Toronto (1054→1208), Malaysia (1906→1775), China (4310→4575), Thailand (5420→4703)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malta, Spain, Japan, Iran, Poland, France, Austria, Denmark, U.K., Germany

Worse: Australia

The same: Romania, India

Better: Singapore

Much better: Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: South Korea (213→176, 12.0%), Israel (new→185, 74.3%), Louisiana (291→282, 83.2%), New Zealand (new→302, 2.2%), Ontario (1313→613, 48.8%), South Africa (new→973, 94.9%), Turkey (1109→1342, 15.2%), Italy (new→1496, 14.5%), Mexico (542→1526, 93.9%), Sweden (2361→2544, 77.8%), Indonesia (new→4682, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Brunei, Dominica, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (7, 0.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 42.1%); Fiji (14, 61.2%); Finland (14, 6.7%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 4.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 61.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (34, 25.9%); Barbados (42, 13.5%); Eritrea (59, 39.1%); Sri Lanka (79, 49.6%); Seychelles (100, 37.1%); Cambodia (125, 79.5%); Mauritania (131, 45.4%); Belize (136, 90.0%); Slovenia (142, 34.4%); Cabo Verde (162, 68.8%); Djibouti (193, 1.0%); Uganda (193, 24.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (194, 71.2%); Croatia (221, 62.1%); Niger (221, 7.3%); Cameroon (222, 36.9%); Azerbaijan (242, 68.8%); Belarus (258, 24.1%); Oman (261, 74.4%); Madagascar (265, 87.6%); Pakistan (265, 24.3%); Jordan (301, 36.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (304, 77.0%); Kyrgyzstan (326, 75.9%); Mongolia (332, 60.0%); Armenia (365, 75.0%); South Sudan (397, 61.0%); Liberia (399, 82.2%); Guinea (418, 45.0%); Yemen (476, 66.0%); Burma (492, 42.0%); Saudi Arabia (512, 63.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (549, 85.0%); Sierra Leone (704, 75.8%); Chile (718, 21.1%); Gabon (730, 90.4%); Central African Republic (739, 67.5%); Mozambique (757, 96.2%); Guinea-Bissau (878, 69.6%); Papua New Guinea (930, 96.2%); Nepal (1025, 58.0%); Kazakhstan (1075, 83.4%); Haiti (1091, 74.6%); Egypt (1218, 87.0%); Guatemala (1225, 63.3%); Luxembourg (1256, 66.0%); Russia (1264, 81.3%); Slovakia (1330, 68.0%); Sudan (1340, 87.9%); Malawi (1408, 95.8%); Mali (1433, 68.3%); Kuwait (1626, 55.3%); United Arab Emirates (1715, 37.1%); Bahrain (2302, 56.8%); Portugal (2329, 92.3%); Panama (3621, 98.2%); Tajikistan (4488, 60.9%); Somalia (21127, 76.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): VI (33, 36.8%); NH (73, 21.9%); GU (294, 40.2%); VT (343, 26.0%); UT (473, 90.7%); SD (607, 62.7%); IA (647, 94.0%); TX (740, 92.3%); OK (1456, 97.4%); OH (1760, 97.6%); AZ (3975, 98.8%); WY (5439, 97.0%); WI (7783, 98.9%); AR (8721, 92.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT (eradicated); PE (10, 0.0%); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 2.1%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 60.0%); MB (471, 36.3%); SK (587, 91.3%); AB (992, 44.4%)

Japan had a third consecutive day of record numbers of new cases; today there were 1,464.

Spain saw more than 3,000 cases today for the first time more or less (not counting a few data anomalies) since April.

India saw its first day of more than 50,000 new confirmed cases yesterday, and its second today.

JHU data showed that Mexico has climbed into third place in the world in cumulative death toll, behind the United States and Brazil, ahead now of the United Kingdom.

Thailand and New Zealand continue to be good models for dealing with COVID-19, and a cause for hope in the world. They both have a steady trickle of imported cases in the single digits, but have so far been able to keep them under isolation and control.

There are signs in the Canadian West that the current wave of the pandemic is plateauing. British Columbia and Alberta are within about 5% of the active cases they had a week ago. Saskatchewan is up 25%, but most of that took place six or seven days ago.

Ontario is back to where it was two and three weeks ago, which was much better than where it was four and five weeks ago. Active cases were down for the third straight day, dropping 37 cases to 1,360 today. The lagged/smoothed case fatality ratio was an almost plausible 2.1%, so we're probably seeing at least half of the actual cases.

The provincial associate chief medical officer said today that she expects that in the fall, teachers and school staff will be trained on how to isolate and test consenting classes of children whenever anyone develops symptoms. This plan does not fill be with confidence.

Toronto dropped another 36 active cases in the past two days to 321. Our CFR is around 5.4% though, so some large group of people don't know they're sick or aren't getting tested when they are. Maybe they think they're healthy. Maybe they think they can't take time off work to get tested or to quarantine. Maybe they just don't know they should be tested.

I don't envy public health officials though; that's an awkward number to deal with. There should be around 1,400 undetected cases in our city of three million people, so just randomly testing people isn't a very efficient way to find them. Trying to trace all the contacts of 321 people is also not practical: doing anything for 321 people is a huge logistical effort.

So what can we all do? We can wear our masks, wash our hands, and when we are at particular risk or about to expose someone to significant risk, we can get tested. I got my own negative COVID-19 test back this morning, 18 hours after I lined up for ten minutes for a painless one-minute procedure. I also installed the federal government's COVID Alert tracer app, and I let Google Maps track my location, so that I do contract COVID-19 I can just follow back along my timeline to see where I have been.

Today's chart shows how each of the 27 members of the European Union are doing with their active case counts.

Stay safe.

2020-07-30

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-512.2→-521.8), U.S. (-17→-19), Alabama (-15→-15), California (-9→-9), Israel (10→8), Singapore (10→10), Romania (54→56), India (63→65), Spain (69→69), Australia (94→100), Iran (124→120), Japan (143→124), Malta (246→159), Canada (305→186), Poland (198→208), Austria (220→220), France (288→288), U.K. (339→339), Denmark (579→340), Germany (553→508), Italy (984→969), Malaysia (1553→1772), Thailand (3904→3904), China (6253→5155), New Zealand (21371→7126)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Iran, Japan, Malta, Canada, Denmark

Better: Singapore, Romania, India, Spain, Australia, Poland, Austria, France, U.K.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Toronto (new→118, 12.0%), Norway (100→173, 3.6%), Louisiana (new→416, 75.7%), South Korea (new→588, 12.9%), Brazil (402→775, 90.2%), Turkey (954→844, 15.4%), Mexico (406→909, 92.7%), South Africa (new→1815, 95.2%), Ontario (new→2861, 50.6%), Sweden (2001→2940, 77.9%), Indonesia (new→8349, 97.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (9, 0.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 42.1%); Fiji (14, 61.2%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 71.8%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Paraguay (14, 86.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 61.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (23, 28.9%); Djibouti (25, 0.8%); Monaco (40, 14.6%); Croatia (91, 62.1%); Cabo Verde (92, 70.3%); Sri Lanka (102, 53.1%); Czechia (128, 75.6%); Mauritania (146, 51.3%); Zambia (159, 74.5%); Belize (225, 93.8%); Yemen (227, 65.3%); Kyrgyzstan (247, 78.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (265, 40.9%); Azerbaijan (326, 75.8%); Mongolia (332, 60.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (340, 82.9%); Slovenia (364, 34.4%); South Sudan (431, 61.1%); Pakistan (476, 25.8%); Bahrain (479, 56.7%); Burma (492, 42.0%); Oman (549, 81.3%); Belarus (580, 27.7%); Sierra Leone (580, 74.9%); Armenia (614, 78.7%); Central African Republic (645, 67.8%); United Arab Emirates (649, 37.3%); Benin (662, 84.8%); Nepal (797, 56.8%); Tajikistan (825, 60.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (929, 82.6%); Malawi (944, 96.4%); Afghanistan (949, 69.6%); Saudi Arabia (1009, 67.3%); Botswana (1123, 97.6%); Switzerland (1163, 11.4%); Kuwait (1386, 57.0%); Egypt (1495, 88.7%); Guatemala (1569, 62.5%); Chile (1664, 22.0%); Portugal (2321, 92.7%); Liberia (2939, 88.9%); West Bank and Gaza (3414, 98.9%); Moldova (5432, 93.0%); Gabon (5987, 94.1%); Tunisia (6227, 46.5%); Mali (6559, 69.7%); Ecuador (7224, 99.4%); Russia (7997, 84.1%); Haiti (30974, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): GU (31, 41.9%); VI (69, 49.7%); NH (78, 21.7%); NC (168, 73.5%); MN (477, 53.0%); VT (504, 26.9%); AR (598, 92.0%); UT (728, 94.5%); TX (2019, 95.3%); IA (2469, 94.4%); OH (2470, 97.1%); MS (6152, 93.5%); AZ (9861, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); NS (10, 0.0%); PE (12, 0.0%); NB (14, 4.1%); YT (14, 60.0%); BC (203, 36.1%)

The big local story is that Toronto is advancing to phase three of reopening on Friday, which seems risky for a large, dense city with 357 active confirmed cases and a testing rate low enough that the total number of cases is likely still a little under 2,000. The decision was made by the provincial government and leaves only Windsor-Essex and its agricutural workers in phase two. What's new in Toronto then is that the limit on gatherings has been raised to 50 indoors and 100 outdoors, and people can eat and drink (but not sing or dance) indoors again in bars and restaurants, as long as they stay two metres away from those outside their social bubble.

Toronto Mayor John Tory responded by asking people to continue to be careful, and getting City Council to pass a new by-law requiring the use of face coverings in common areas in apartments and condominiums.

I do not know how many new cases there were in Toronto. I think this has something to do with a review of the detailed individual case data that they updated today (but not last week, because of the then ongoing review), which I am inferring turned up a percent or so of duplicates (not as bad as what happened earlier in the U.K.). The net result was that the city quietly announced that the cumulative case count decreased by three to 15,334 since it was last reported two days previously.

This had the effect of making our other statistics look deceptively rosy: with no new cases and an average number of recoveries, our active case count plummeted from 415 to 357 in two days, the lowest it's been since late March. It also brought our estimated case fatality rate down from 5.94 to 5.43%, and inferred total number of case from 2,463 to 1,938.

I won't be able to find out how many cases were reported today until the next individual case report comes out, but yesterday's number was either 6 or 10, depending on where you end your day or whose data you look at.

The numbers also reduced the apparent severity of the pandemic in Ontario significantly, but there were other contributions: Ottawa's new cases dropped from 25 to 13 today, Peel from 7 to 4 (but York up from 2 to 9), Windsor-Essex steady at 22 (but Chatham-Kent up from 4 to 10); Niagara steady at 13.

The total active cases in Ontario were down somewhat then, from 1,575 to 1,476; they have been bouncing between 1,400 and 1,600 for 11 days. It's unlikely, but if we should have another similar drop tomorrow, we could conceivably slip to third place among Canadian provinces, behind Alberta, currently at 1,430.

In Quebec, 12 days since the standardization of active cases, every day has seen an increase; we are now up to 2,517 from 1,556.

Looking through my list of regions of interest, it's been a grim day, with areas with more new cases today outnumbering those with fewer by a 2:1 ratio.

Japan saw its first day ever with more than a thousand new cases. Only a quarter were in Tokyo, and news reports indicated that the pandemic was spreading rapidly to less densely populated parts of the country. The government is still promoting domestic tourism, and has not introduced any new measures to try to control the disease.

Indonesia had its second day of more than 2,000 new cases. The situation there looks grim, too, with testing costing the equivalent of a month's basic wage, and no enforcement of social distancing restrictions.

Even New Zealand reported two new cases in a day for the first time in a couple of weeks; as with all their cases in the last two months, they were imported by travel.

Today's chart shows how active cases have fluctuated by continent.

Stay safe.

2020-07-29

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-512.2→-521.8), U.S. (-17→-19), Alabama (-15→-15), California (-9→-9), Israel (10→8), Singapore (10→10), Romania (54→56), India (63→65), Spain (69→69), Australia (94→100), Iran (124→120), Japan (143→124), Malta (246→159), Canada (305→186), Poland (198→208), Austria (220→220), France (288→288), U.K. (339→339), Denmark (579→340), Germany (553→508), Italy (984→969), Malaysia (1553→1772), Thailand (3904→3904), China (6253→5155), New Zealand (21371→7126)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Iran, Japan, Malta, Canada, Denmark

Better: Singapore, Romania, India, Spain, Australia, Poland, Austria, France, U.K.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Toronto (new→118, 12.0%), Norway (100→173, 3.6%), Louisiana (new→416, 75.7%), South Korea (new→588, 12.9%), Brazil (402→775, 90.2%), Turkey (954→844, 15.4%), Mexico (406→909, 92.7%), South Africa (new→1815, 95.2%), Ontario (new→2861, 50.6%), Sweden (2001→2940, 77.9%), Indonesia (new→8349, 97.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (9, 0.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 42.1%); Fiji (14, 61.2%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 71.8%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Paraguay (14, 86.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 61.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (23, 28.9%); Djibouti (25, 0.8%); Monaco (40, 14.6%); Croatia (91, 62.1%); Cabo Verde (92, 70.3%); Sri Lanka (102, 53.1%); Czechia (128, 75.6%); Mauritania (146, 51.3%); Zambia (159, 74.5%); Belize (225, 93.8%); Yemen (227, 65.3%); Kyrgyzstan (247, 78.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (265, 40.9%); Azerbaijan (326, 75.8%); Mongolia (332, 60.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (340, 82.9%); Slovenia (364, 34.4%); South Sudan (431, 61.1%); Pakistan (476, 25.8%); Bahrain (479, 56.7%); Burma (492, 42.0%); Oman (549, 81.3%); Belarus (580, 27.7%); Sierra Leone (580, 74.9%); Armenia (614, 78.7%); Central African Republic (645, 67.8%); United Arab Emirates (649, 37.3%); Benin (662, 84.8%); Nepal (797, 56.8%); Tajikistan (825, 60.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (929, 82.6%); Malawi (944, 96.4%); Afghanistan (949, 69.6%); Saudi Arabia (1009, 67.3%); Botswana (1123, 97.6%); Switzerland (1163, 11.4%); Kuwait (1386, 57.0%); Egypt (1495, 88.7%); Guatemala (1569, 62.5%); Chile (1664, 22.0%); Portugal (2321, 92.7%); Liberia (2939, 88.9%); West Bank and Gaza (3414, 98.9%); Moldova (5432, 93.0%); Gabon (5987, 94.1%); Tunisia (6227, 46.5%); Mali (6559, 69.7%); Ecuador (7224, 99.4%); Russia (7997, 84.1%); Haiti (30974, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): GU (31, 41.9%); VI (69, 49.7%); NH (78, 21.7%); NC (168, 73.5%); MN (477, 53.0%); VT (504, 26.9%); AR (598, 92.0%); UT (728, 94.5%); TX (2019, 95.3%); IA (2469, 94.4%); OH (2470, 97.1%); MS (6152, 93.5%); AZ (9861, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); NS (10, 0.0%); PE (12, 0.0%); NB (14, 4.1%); YT (14, 60.0%); BC (203, 36.1%)

The big local story is that Toronto is advancing to phase three of reopening on Friday, which seems risky for a large, dense city with 357 active confirmed cases and a testing rate low enough that the total number of cases is likely still a little under 2,000. The decision was made by the provincial government and leaves only Windsor-Essex and its agricutural workers in phase two. What's new in Toronto then is that the limit on gatherings has been raised to 50 indoors and 100 outdoors, and people can eat and drink (but not sing or dance) indoors again in bars and restaurants, as long as they stay two metres away from those outside their social bubble.

Toronto Mayor John Tory responded by asking people to continue to be careful, and getting City Council to pass a new by-law requiring the use of face coverings in common areas in apartments and condominiums.

I do not know how many new cases there were in Toronto. I think this has something to do with a review of the detailed individual case data that they updated today (but not last week, because of the then ongoing review), which I am inferring turned up a percent or so of duplicates (not as bad as what happened earlier in the U.K.). The net result was that the city quietly announced that the cumulative case count decreased by three to 15,334 since it was last reported two days previously.

This had the effect of making our other statistics look deceptively rosy: with no new cases and an average number of recoveries, our active case count plummeted from 415 to 357 in two days, the lowest it's been since late March. It also brought our estimated case fatality rate down from 5.94 to 5.43%, and inferred total number of case from 2,463 to 1,938.

I won't be able to find out how many cases were reported today until the next individual case report comes out, but yesterday's number was either 6 or 10, depending on where you end your day or whose data you look at.

The numbers also reduced the apparent severity of the pandemic in Ontario significantly, but there were other contributions: Ottawa's new cases dropped from 25 to 13 today, Peel from 7 to 4 (but York up from 2 to 9), Windsor-Essex steady at 22 (but Chatham-Kent up from 4 to 10); Niagara steady at 13.

The total active cases in Ontario were down somewhat then, from 1,575 to 1,476; they have been bouncing between 1,400 and 1,600 for 11 days. It's unlikely, but if we should have another similar drop tomorrow, we could conceivably slip to third place among Canadian provinces, behind Alberta, currently at 1,430.

In Quebec, 12 days since the standardization of active cases, every day has seen an increase; we are now up to 2,517 from 1,556.

Looking through my list of regions of interest, it's been a grim day, with areas with more new cases today outnumbering those with fewer by a 2:1 ratio.

Japan saw its first day ever with more than a thousand new cases. Only a quarter were in Tokyo, and news reports indicated that the pandemic was spreading rapidly to less densely populated parts of the country. The government is still promoting domestic tourism, and has not introduced any new measures to try to control the disease.

Indonesia had its second day of more than 2,000 new cases. The situation there looks grim, too, with testing costing the equivalent of a month's basic wage, and no enforcement of social distancing restrictions.

Even New Zealand reported two new cases in a day for the first time in a couple of weeks; as with all their cases in the last two months, they were imported by travel.

Today's chart shows how active cases have fluctuated by continent.

Stay safe.

2020-07-28

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-468.3→-512.2), Louisiana (-44→-44), U.S. (-15→-17), Alabama (-15→-15), California (-12→-9), Israel (12→10), Singapore (11→10), South Africa (10→12), Romania (57→54), India (61→63), Spain (65→69), Australia (97→94), Iran (124→124), Japan (146→143), Indonesia (193→196), Poland (202→198), Austria (220→220), Malta (257→246), France (255→288), Canada (283→305), U.K. (317→339), Ontario (354→413), Germany (516→553), Denmark (579→579), South Korea (851→903), Italy (932→984), Malaysia (1986→1553), Thailand (2698→3904), China (8253→6253)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Poland, Malta

Worse: Israel, Romania, Australia, Japan

The same: Singapore

Better: India, Spain, Iran, Indonesia, Austria, Canada, U.K.

Much better: South Africa, France, Ontario

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (321→14, 2.3%), Norway (14→100, 3.2%), Brazil (884→402, 87.1%), Mexico (new→406, 89.0%), Turkey (704→954, 15.6%), Sweden (3434→2001, 78.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (63): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (10, 0.0%); Belize (14, 100.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 42.1%); Fiji (14, 61.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 8.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 72.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Djibouti (24, 1.0%); Monaco (50, 13.0%); Pakistan (89, 26.3%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (91, 61.9%); Croatia (92, 66.8%); Cabo Verde (98, 74.2%); Czechia (112, 70.2%); Mauritania (119, 50.9%); Zambia (151, 71.4%); Yemen (190, 64.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (193, 36.0%); Estonia (195, 4.8%); Burma (202, 42.0%); Slovenia (321, 33.9%); Azerbaijan (328, 78.4%); Cameroon (331, 52.1%); Mongolia (338, 60.9%); Kyrgyzstan (376, 83.0%); Guinea-Bissau (427, 71.8%); Nepal (465, 54.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (468, 84.8%); Belarus (480, 28.0%); United Arab Emirates (520, 37.5%); Bahrain (535, 56.4%); Central African Republic (541, 69.1%); Tajikistan (588, 60.5%); Oman (658, 84.4%); Benin (662, 84.8%); South Sudan (701, 61.1%); Guatemala (747, 62.0%); Afghanistan (1063, 70.0%); Kuwait (1106, 56.1%); West Bank and Gaza (1625, 96.1%); Egypt (1818, 89.4%); Guinea (1851, 44.7%); Armenia (1857, 82.5%); Saudi Arabia (1930, 68.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (2032, 84.2%); Haiti (2067, 77.8%); Mali (2190, 69.6%); Portugal (5398, 93.7%); Ecuador (7946, 98.5%); Malawi (15138, 96.7%); Russia (22840, 85.7%); Liberia (42672, 86.7%); Somalia (53439, 77.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): VI (30, 46.6%); GU (37, 45.3%); NH (78, 21.7%); NC (163, 68.2%); MN (542, 53.0%); AR (557, 91.5%); TX (833, 94.1%); UT (1677, 97.6%); SC (3699, 98.8%); MS (3725, 86.3%); KS (20047, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); NS (11, 0.0%); PE (13, 0.0%); NB (14, 4.1%); YT (14, 60.0%); BC (166, 35.3%)

Ontario's active cases increased today for the third day in a row, one case to 1,575, or about where we were on July 9th.

I didn't report Ontario yesterday, but to avoid alarm or confusion, I will give two-day averages in what follows. New cases averaged 115 daily vs. recoveries 104; we are very close to but on the wrong side of equilibrium. Ottawa averaged 26 new cases, Peel 6, Toronto an astonishingly low 14 (20 and 6), Chatham-Kent 5, Windsor-Essex 31, Niagara 8, and everywhere else fewer than 5. If it weren't for our inability to keep migrant agricultural workers in Windsor from catching COVID-19, we would be close to but on the right side of equilibrium, but we're not.

People in Toronto do seem to be taking COVID-19 very seriously, at least in the areas where I go. In my neighbourhood, which hasn't had a sporadic case in two months, people are socially distant on the sidewalk, wear masks indoors and often enough on the street.

Ottawa Public Health believes that the actual number of cases in Ottawa is 5~30 times the number that have actually been confirmed; this would help to explain where the new cases are coming from. Almost half of the recent new cases in Ottawa are under the age of 20, and none are 70+: young children have been catching COVID-19 there at the three daycares that are in outbreak status. Ottawa Public Health is calling for a return to phase two; Premier Doug Ford has ruled this out for the time being.

I was curious how younger people were doing in Toronto, so I prepared today's chart, which shows for each age range the number of people per million who were reported as new cases of COVID-19. Data was unavailable for many days; in these cases, I substituted average data over missing days. If say there are 100,000 people in their 80s, and 5 of them are confirmed in a day, then that's plotted as 50 cases per million.

In the beginning, soon after the end of the before times, people under 20 were the least affected, and the impact was roughly proportional to age. Then in May, things got better for those 80+ and worse for everyone else. In June, things got better for everyone. Youths in particular went back down to April levels. Things have continued to improve slightly and unevenly over the course of July, with the amount of improvement roughly proportional to age. That is, the rate of infection among youths didn't change much over July, while the rates among people 60+ came down significantly.

One could therefore look at this situation as a developing problem in which young people are representing a larger and large proportion of cases, and don't seem to be reducing their transmission as much as other ages. A better way to think about it though would be to say that the risks to which young people are exposed have not changed significantly since April, were low to begin with, and older people should be congratulated for minimizing their risks to the point where their transmission is down to a comparable level to that of young people.

Stay safe.

2020-07-27

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-433.4→-468.3), Louisiana (-36→-44), Alabama (-15→-15), U.S. (-13→-15), California (-6→-12), South Africa (9→10), Singapore (13→11), Israel (14→12), Romania (57→57), India (61→61), Spain (76→65), Mexico (64→73), Australia (103→97), Iran (117→124), Japan (144→146), Indonesia (180→193), Poland (192→202), Austria (220→220), France (248→255), Malta (256→257), Canada (335→283), U.K. (285→317), Ontario (363→354), Germany (481→516), Denmark (579→579), South Korea (851→851), Italy (814→932), Malaysia (1925→1986), Thailand (2335→2698), China (10644→8253)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Australia, Canada, Ontario

Worse: Singapore, Israel

Better: South Africa, Romania, India, Iran, Japan, Indonesia, Poland, Austria, France, Malta

Much better: Mexico, U.K.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Norway (18→14, 2.8%), Toronto (265→218, 13.9%), New Zealand (59→321, 2.3%), Turkey (535→704, 15.7%), Brazil (235626→884, 89.0%), Sweden (2950→3434, 79.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (64): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (11, 0.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 42.1%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 8.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 13.0%); Nicaragua (14, 72.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Djibouti (16, 1.1%); Burundi (52, 67.5%); Fiji (59, 61.2%); Pakistan (84, 28.6%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (91, 61.9%); Czechia (104, 66.6%); Eritrea (104, 53.6%); Cameroon (108, 42.6%); Croatia (108, 70.8%); Cabo Verde (170, 82.2%); Mauritania (181, 57.6%); Benin (235, 84.8%); Oman (313, 87.3%); Belarus (319, 27.8%); Azerbaijan (328, 80.3%); Burma (346, 43.6%); United Arab Emirates (390, 37.9%); Bahrain (391, 57.7%); Kyrgyzstan (396, 85.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (411, 84.7%); Central African Republic (417, 70.4%); Guinea-Bissau (427, 71.8%); Yemen (431, 69.8%); Peru (449, 84.0%); Mongolia (471, 63.6%); Afghanistan (491, 69.5%); Mali (516, 69.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (630, 86.9%); Tajikistan (696, 61.4%); Liberia (736, 87.9%); Estonia (775, 4.9%); Seychelles (915, 43.8%); Ghana (971, 52.3%); Kuwait (1270, 56.6%); Saudi Arabia (1593, 69.6%); Sri Lanka (1609, 70.2%); Malawi (1677, 98.1%); Russia (1901, 84.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2155, 93.5%); Greece (2159, 98.0%); Haiti (2351, 76.9%); Portugal (2481, 93.9%); Egypt (2672, 90.2%); Armenia (3515, 83.5%); Somalia (4244, 76.6%); Guatemala (4779, 65.5%); Guinea (12037, 48.2%); Ecuador (41290, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): GU (36, 42.7%); DC (42, 46.0%); VI (68, 65.6%); NC (159, 62.8%); VT (410, 27.8%); AR (776, 93.0%); MT (1096, 87.5%); TX (4579, 98.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (eradicated); NS (12, 0.0%); NB (14, 4.1%); PE (14, 10.0%); BC (178, 36.8%)

Toronto's weekend numbers continue their downward trend, with a drop of 47 active cases to 415. That's the result of only 63 new cases being recorded in three days, along with 104 recoveries and 6 deaths.

I am puzzled by something though, which is the question of whether or not things have actually improved over the course of this month. What started me thinking along these lines was the fact that my crude estimate of the case fatality ratio has risen from about 3% to about 6%. As a rule of thumb, if you think that the actual infection fatality ratio is about 1%, then the CFR gives you the ratio (ignoring the % sign) of actual cases to officially reported ones. So if your death rate is about 6% of your new case rate (I averaged these out over a week and lagged deaths by two weeks), then you may only be counting 1 in 6 of your actual cases. And if you had 710 cases three weeks ago, or 70% more active cases than you have now, but the CFR estimate now is 86% higher, then it might be reasonable to assume that you actually have more cases in your region and just aren't finding them through testing enough.

Since the CFR is hand-wavily deaths per confirmed cases, if you multiply that by confirmed cases to estimate actual cases, all you're doing is taking some time-smeared measure of deaths and multiplying it by 100 to get your actual cases. Which means that what be worrisome would be if our death rate were staying steady, or worse, increasing.

The problem with the death rate though, so to speak, is it that it is too low to be statistically meaningful. Every week this month, we have had between 11 and 13 deaths in Toronto each week. That's much better than June, when we ranged from 22 to 55. So we are obviously doing better this month than last, but it's not at all clear to me that we're doing better now than three weeks ago.

It's possible that part of it is because we're seeing somewhat older cases in Toronto this month than last month. In June, about 2/3 of cases were aged under 50, but in the first half of July it was only about 55%. So you would expect them more of them to be dying even as the number of actual active cases declined, but the effect doesn't seem large enough.

Anyway, it's a mystery to me, but if we keep dropping at the rate we're going, it won't be too long before we can trace contacts, and then figure out whether or not our current active case numbers were accurate or an artifact of insufficient testing.

Today's chart is an updated map from the City of Toronto's fine website, shading neighbourhoods by how many community cases they've had per capita in the past three weeks. If your neighbourhood is blank, then there's a good chance that none of your neighbours have COVID-19.

Stay safe.

2020-07-26

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-407.8→-433.4), Louisiana (-36→-36), Alabama (-15→-15), U.S. (-12→-13), California (-4→-6), Singapore (16→13), Israel (12→14), Romania (57→57), India (64→61), Mexico (62→64), Spain (76→76), Australia (99→103), Iran (117→117), Japan (136→144), Indonesia (168→180), Poland (198→192), Austria (244→220), France (248→248), Malta (598→256), U.K. (401→285), Canada (293→335), Ontario (346→363), Germany (448→481), Denmark (579→579), Italy (795→814), South Korea (727→851), Malaysia (1839→1925), Thailand (2409→2335), China (14013→10644)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Singapore, Poland, Austria, Malta, U.K.

Worse: India

Better: Romania, Mexico, Spain, Australia, Iran, Japan, Indonesia, France, Ontario

Much better: Israel, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Norway (17→18, 4.6%), New Zealand (59, no new data, 2.3%), Turkey (613→535, 15.8%), South Africa (2359→2228, 94.8%), Sweden (2306→2950, 79.1%), Brazil (new→235626, 89.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (63): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (12, 0.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 42.1%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 72.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Djibouti (17, 1.3%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (27, 61.9%); Bhutan (42, 17.0%); Burundi (52, 67.5%); Comoros (58, 8.7%); Fiji (59, 61.2%); Barbados (79, 13.5%); Pakistan (81, 28.6%); Seychelles (91, 43.8%); Eritrea (104, 53.6%); Cameroon (108, 42.6%); Croatia (126, 73.0%); Mauritania (195, 61.7%); Cabo Verde (252, 85.7%); Belarus (296, 28.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (308, 90.1%); Mongolia (356, 63.6%); Central African Republic (364, 70.4%); Oman (366, 87.8%); Azerbaijan (367, 82.6%); Bahrain (385, 59.5%); Guinea-Bissau (427, 71.8%); United Arab Emirates (434, 39.1%); Guinea (452, 46.7%); Benin (464, 80.1%); Ghana (469, 51.4%); Mali (512, 69.2%); Kyrgyzstan (669, 89.8%); Afghanistan (700, 71.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (728, 85.2%); Finland (793, 6.5%); Liberia (806, 88.3%); Russia (868, 83.6%); Tajikistan (892, 62.5%); Yemen (956, 72.4%); Chile (1004, 22.2%); Burma (1021, 43.6%); Armenia (1216, 82.8%); Sri Lanka (1270, 69.3%); Saudi Arabia (1356, 70.6%); Guatemala (1805, 65.7%); Nepal (2192, 59.5%); Greece (2208, 97.8%); Lesotho (2385, 98.9%); Portugal (2675, 93.9%); Egypt (3373, 90.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (3388, 90.1%); Peru (4536, 91.8%); North Macedonia (5424, 99.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): VT (14, 28.1%); DC (40, 44.7%); VI (112, 71.2%); AR (926, 92.0%); TX (1697, 96.5%); MT (3466, 85.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT (eradicated); NS (13, 0.0%); NB (14, 4.1%); PE (14, 10.0%)

Malta reopened for tourism at the beginning of the month, with no quarantine required for visitors from 22 European countries. It expanded that list mid-month to include 28 other countries (including Canada, thank you!). It has reported a steep increase in active cases in the last few days, rising from 6 cases three days ago to 26 cases now, apparently due to a large gathering at a hotel earlier in the month. Still a small enough number to be traced, isolated and controlled.

Austria continues the steady increase in active cases that it has seen since its low six weeks ago, rising over that time from 389 to 1,502, including 141 new cases this week.

Singapore's 481 additional cases were once again largely confined to (472) foreign workers.

Poland is doing somewhat worse than a few days, but more broadly speaking, their 8,500 active cases is about 70% of where they were a month ago, and one flat week doesn't necessarily mean their recovery is over.

The United Kingdom has been plateauing for at least the seven weeks, at about 80,000 active cases and 100 deaths a day. Their worsening trend over the last four days is likely meaningless in the bigger picture.

Canada's "much better" above is a weekly thing, due to the fact that British Columbia and Alberta do not report on weekends, leaving us likely about 280 cases or 30% short of where we should be on new cases. The remaining provinces are within a few cases of yesterday's numbers. That moves Ontario back up 14 active cases to 1,558, leaving us back where we were 5 or 6 days ago. A friend and I were musing aloud yesterday about how nice it would be if the provincd would just shut down hard for a month and be done with it, rather than dragging this out into months and years. It's hard to imagine that there won't be a large uptick in the fall when people move back indoors into schools and public transit, and if we haven't brought our numbers down at least to the point where we can trace contacts again, where will we be?

Across Ontario: Ottawa was steady, down from 28 to 26 new cases; Peel stayed at 12; Toronto was up from 23 to 39; Windsor-Essex cancelled that out by dropping 33 to 25. No other health unit had more than six cases.

Today's chart shows again how all my regions of interest are doing, and where they are headed.

Stay safe.

2020-07-25

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-422.4→-407.8), Alabama (-14→-15), U.S. (-12→-12), Brazil (-5→-5), California (-3→-4), Israel (11→12), Singapore (18→16), Romania (57→57), Mexico (62→62), India (67→64), Spain (76→76), Australia (97→99), Iran (118→117), Japan (135→136), Poland (219→198), Austria (254→244), France (248→248), Canada (261→293), U.K. (401→401), Germany (500→448), Denmark (579→579), Malta (598→598), South Korea (961→727), Malaysia (2077→1839), Thailand (2409→2409), China (18937→14013)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Poland, Austria

Worse: Singapore, India

The same: Iran

Better: Israel, Romania, Mexico, Spain, Australia, Japan, France

Much better: Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Norway (16→17, 4.1%), New Zealand (70→59, 2.3%), Turkey (627→613, 16.1%), Louisiana (new→1567, 97.2%), Sweden (1426→2306, 79.1%), South Africa (3346→2359, 97.9%), Italy (13966→4850, 14.5%), Ontario (new→5161, 51.3%), Indonesia (27611→8706, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (67): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (13, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 17.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 42.1%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Djibouti (15, 1.3%); Comoros (26, 8.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (27, 61.9%); Jordan (35, 33.9%); Burundi (46, 61.7%); Seychelles (47, 37.1%); Fiji (59, 61.2%); Pakistan (76, 28.3%); Barbados (79, 13.5%); Cuba (81, 4.8%); Eritrea (90, 52.2%); Lesotho (97, 77.8%); Guinea (127, 45.2%); Mauritania (166, 63.8%); Cameroon (231, 42.6%); Burkina Faso (252, 31.8%); Croatia (289, 85.5%); Latvia (298, 30.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (308, 90.1%); Belarus (311, 29.6%); Burma (346, 43.6%); Mongolia (356, 63.6%); Oman (368, 87.8%); Central African Republic (372, 71.2%); Yemen (373, 73.4%); Bahrain (374, 61.0%); Ghana (402, 48.9%); Nepal (428, 59.5%); Azerbaijan (440, 85.1%); Liberia (440, 89.7%); United Arab Emirates (471, 39.6%); Chile (481, 31.6%); Guinea-Bissau (488, 71.8%); Kyrgyzstan (504, 92.3%); Mali (562, 70.0%); Armenia (649, 83.9%); Saudi Arabia (655, 70.4%); Hungary (657, 31.3%); Madagascar (705, 90.0%); Russia (851, 84.7%); Guatemala (882, 64.1%); Afghanistan (923, 72.6%); Tajikistan (945, 63.1%); Sri Lanka (1011, 69.6%); Kazakhstan (1150, 82.3%); Portugal (2277, 94.3%); Qatar (2553, 9.9%); Finland (2929, 6.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (3209, 85.7%); Egypt (4035, 91.3%); Peru (9263, 91.8%); Greece (9386, 97.7%); Panama (10820, 99.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): DC (39, 43.0%); VI (77, 66.9%); ME (446, 54.6%); VT (921, 28.1%); TX (4712, 97.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT (eradicated); NB (14, 4.1%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 10.0%)

Today's chart shows active cases in European countries. Armenia appears to be hardest hit among major countries, with 1 in 291 of their people actively sick. Norway is an outlier artifact due to a recent infrequent update of their recovery count; their position on the chart is accurate, but their trend is likely not. Iceland, Finland and Estonia look like they are also doing well. Malta, at the top is a small enough country that if they go from 4 cases to 12, it looks like the whole island is on fire, but they will be able to bring it quickly under control.

In the United States, there is a strong weekly cycle to case reporting: today's numbers end the busy part of the week, and should be followed by three days of decreasing numbers. In the past week, there were 461,828 new cases, a 1.4% increase over last week's 455,230. This is a significant slowdown compared to the previous week's 21% (and earlier 15%, 36%), and I'm hoping it means that they are reaching the top of their curve. Their current daily death rate of 1,000 is a little more than half the usual number of deaths to heart disease or cancer, but much greater than any other cause of death.

It's hard to say whether Singapore is doing a fantastic or terrible job of controlling COVID-19. 513 new cases today, of which 6 were imported, 2 were community transmission, and the remaining 505 were in foreign worker dormitories.

Ontario stayed steady today, dropping three active cases to 1,544, based on 138 new cases, 140 recoveries and 1 death. The new cases were on the low side of this week's range of 103 to 203, and much lower than yesterday's 195.

Ottawa rose slightly from 27 to 28 cases, Kingston had three new cases after none for a little while, Peel was down from 18 to 12, Toronto from 31 to 23, Chatham-Kent from 13 to 3, Windsor-Essex from 57 to 33.

Cases per million population by age range were 8 (age 0-19), 19 (20-39), 8 (40-59), 6 (60-79), 5 (80+). If we estimate the effect of excluding migrant agricultural workers in Windsor-Essex, the numbers become 8, 13, 6, 6 and 5.

British Columbia has seen a failure of its Phase 3 measures in the past week. Over the first three weeks, active cases rose gradually up from about 150 to about 200; in this week, they are now up to about 300. In terms of new daily cases, it went from an average of about a dozen new cases a day at the beginning of Phase 3 to an average of 30 a day now.

Alberta, which ended its state of emergency in mid-June, when it was seeing 40 new cases a day, and now averages 120 a day, and there has been at least one day (June 22) where it had more new cases than Ontario. There has been some suspicion that the bulk of the cases are among large family gatherings within Hutterite communities.

Saskatchewan has had a more nuanced reopening schedule than many places, and is currently in its stage 4.2. It is now averaging 26 new cases a day, compared to 8 a month ago, with most new cases in Hutterite communities.

Manitoba entered its Phase 4 today, marking the reopening at reduced capacity of casinos, cinemas, theatres, and religious services. After bringing their active case numbers down to the single digits for ten days twice, they climbed in the last ten days from 6 cases to 62 cases, again driven mainly by contagion among the Hutterites.

In Quebec, we have had nine days of standard active case data, and the count has risen each day, from 1,556 to 2,045.

Finally, on the bright side, the Atlantic provinces have only nine active cases among them, and there are only three in the North.

Stay safe.

2020-07-24

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-422.4→-422.4), Louisiana (-30→-36), Alabama (-13→-14), U.S. (-11→-12), Brazil (-4→-5), California (-1→-3), Israel (11→11), Singapore (22→18), Romania (63→57), Mexico (67→62), India (69→67), Spain (58→76), Australia (97→97), Japan (141→135), Poland (244→219), France (198→248), Austria (269→254), Canada (232→261), Ontario (342→312), U.K. (401→401), Germany (535→500), Denmark (579→579), Malaysia (2073→2077), Thailand (3489→2409), China (25337→18937)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Singapore, Romania, Mexico, Japan, Poland, Austria, Ontario

Worse: India

Better: Israel, Australia

Much better: Spain, France, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (new→14, 2.2%), Norway (new→16, 3.9%), New Zealand (118→70, 2.3%), Toronto (296→282, 15.5%), Turkey (819→627, 16.2%), South Korea (2416→675, 12.6%), Sweden (1659→1426, 79.7%), South Africa (2120→3346, 95.5%), Iran (1550→11342, 62.3%), Italy (10855→13966, 14.7%), Indonesia (2983→27611, 98.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Burkina Faso (14, 30.5%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 42.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 71.4%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 5.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Djibouti (19, 1.9%); Iceland (20, 0.7%); Comoros (26, 8.7%); Barbados (27, 9.6%); Jordan (27, 28.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (49, 40.3%); Fiji (59, 61.2%); Burundi (62, 61.7%); Cuba (72, 4.7%); Seychelles (75, 42.1%); Eritrea (90, 52.2%); Guinea (112, 45.4%); Ghana (161, 54.2%); Mauritania (170, 66.4%); Antigua and Barbuda (211, 34.1%); Guatemala (241, 65.4%); Latvia (245, 29.6%); Pakistan (257, 42.9%); Lesotho (266, 91.0%); Bahrain (275, 60.2%); Venezuela (292, 88.0%); Paraguay (298, 86.4%); Liberia (308, 86.7%); Mali (315, 70.5%); Saudi Arabia (336, 70.2%); Madagascar (341, 90.2%); Croatia (376, 92.1%); Chile (384, 31.3%); Belarus (405, 30.3%); Nepal (449, 59.2%); Hungary (457, 30.9%); Mongolia (479, 64.5%); Kyrgyzstan (504, 92.3%); Azerbaijan (520, 88.0%); United Arab Emirates (520, 40.3%); Burma (549, 46.1%); Armenia (590, 84.2%); Oman (659, 90.0%); Yemen (661, 74.3%); Central African Republic (688, 73.3%); Sierra Leone (714, 76.8%); Slovenia (725, 36.6%); Afghanistan (838, 72.7%); Finland (923, 5.8%); Tajikistan (1124, 63.8%); Guinea-Bissau (1279, 76.7%); Sri Lanka (1486, 70.2%); Russia (1502, 85.9%); Portugal (2007, 94.4%); Qatar (2071, 9.9%); Sudan (2684, 88.3%); Greece (3665, 99.1%); Egypt (3790, 91.6%); Peru (5019, 90.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (6016, 91.8%); Panama (9334, 98.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (10615, 85.6%); Kazakhstan (59271, 82.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): DC (38, 41.7%); ME (196, 53.2%); VI (220, 90.2%); VT (279, 27.0%); MT (538, 82.9%); MA (1524, 25.3%); AR (1871, 98.0%); SD (2030, 58.7%); AZ (6930, 97.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (eradicated); NB (14, 4.1%); NL (14, 1.6%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 10.0%)

Ontario ended two days of decreasing active cases with a 55 case increase to 1,550, as a result of 195 new cases, 137 recoveries and 3 deaths. In the North, there were only two cases, in Porcupine and Sudbury. Ottawa's 27 cases (up from 14 yesterday) were all there were in the East. Central Ontario was dominated by Toronto (24 up to 31), Peel (15 to 18), and York (4 to 8). The Central West was up 7 to 21, despite Niagara dropping from 10 to 1.

The big story though was that Windsor-Essex has had another outbreak, almost certainly among its migrant Latin American agricultural workers. Their 23 new cases yesterday rose to 57 today, and they have the highest cumulative case count per million population of 4,974 (compared to Toronto's 4,491, most other cities being less than half that, and rural areas being in the hundred).

The large number of new cases in Windsor calls into question Premier Doug Ford's recent pleas to young people in their 20s and 30s (I feel old) to stop spreading coronavirus through parties, and explains why he was talking about migrant farmworkers today, alternately personally guaranteeing that those who tested positive would be treated fairly, while musing about the possibility of imposing mandatory testing in that economic sector.

In fact, if we take today's reported new case numbers as broken down by age range - 49 (0-19), 79 (20-39), 59 (40-59), 11 (60-79), and 5 (80+) and work out the infection rate per million population in each range, we get very different values depending on whether or not we include the Windsor farmworkers. The Windsor-Essex County Health Unit has said that since mid-May non-agricultural cases have averaged a fairly steady six per day. If we assume then that 50 of the new 57 were agricultural workers, and that their age distribution is the same as it was a few weeks ago when they dominated WECHU stats, then 40 are aged 20-39, and 10 are aged 40-59. That would give provincial figures without Windsor-Essex agri-workers of 49, 39, 49, 11, and 5. Expressed as cases per million population, that's (including these agri-workers) 16, 23, 15, 4, 8, or (excluding them) 16, 11, 13, 4, 8.

That is, if it weren't for the serious problem of foreign migrant agricultural workers (and don't get me started about how we decided as a country that we couldn't afford to pay farmers enough to hire local workers to harvest food), the age range where COVID-19 is spreading fastest is among those under 20, not those aged 20-40.

[Astute readers will have noted that the numbers add up to 203, not 195; I am given to understand that this is because there can be lag in reporting of age information.]

In Toronto, we extended our slow, steady decline in active case numebrs to three weeks. I am liking slow and steady. Over two days, we dropped 15 cases to 462. That probably means about 1,850 cases including undiagnosed, but it's heading in the right direction. I was out shopping in the afternoon, and people are better each week about wearing masks, even when it's hot and humid. Thank you for helping to make things better for everyone.

Now if only things would settle down out West, our country would be doing fine. Today's chart shows how each province is doing, and which way it's headed.

Stay safe.

2020-07-23

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-471.0→-422.4), Louisiana (-26→-30), Alabama (-13→-13), U.S. (-10→-11), Brazil (-4→-4), California (0→-1), Israel (14→11), Singapore (25→22), Spain (80→58), Romania (69→63), Mexico (76→67), India (55→69), Australia (99→97), Japan (167→141), France (255→198), Canada (245→232), Poland (254→244), Austria (335→269), Ontario (310→342), U.K. (409→401), Germany (620→535), Denmark (579→579), Malta (1343→1344), Norway (2076→1497), Malaysia (1886→2073), Thailand (4646→3489), China (24964→25337)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Spain, Romania, Mexico, Japan, France, Canada, Poland, Austria

Worse: Singapore, Australia

The same: California

Much better: India, Ontario

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (118, no new data, 2.4%), Turkey (819, no new data, 16.6%), Iran (1550, no new data, 62.3%), Sweden (1659, no new data, 80.1%), South Africa (2120, no new data, 92.1%), South Korea (2416, no new data, 12.9%), Indonesia (2983, no new data, 98.5%), Italy (10855, no new data, 14.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Bhutan (14, 21.8%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 42.1%); Eritrea (14, 65.0%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 31.4%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Iceland (20, 0.7%); Jordan (22, 25.1%); Chad (26, 2.2%); Djibouti (28, 2.8%); Barbados (51, 9.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (51, 40.6%); Guinea (77, 48.3%); Seychelles (101, 44.7%); Latvia (188, 28.2%); Cuba (189, 5.8%); Burkina Faso (194, 29.9%); Paraguay (205, 85.5%); Antigua and Barbuda (211, 34.1%); Mauritania (226, 68.9%); Switzerland (227, 9.8%); Venezuela (262, 85.5%); Bahrain (273, 63.1%); Botswana (275, 81.4%); Burma (279, 46.1%); Ghana (291, 54.2%); Chile (329, 31.2%); Saudi Arabia (335, 71.6%); Slovenia (346, 34.6%); Guatemala (354, 66.0%); Mali (361, 73.4%); Belarus (423, 31.3%); Nepal (454, 59.3%); Croatia (467, 93.4%); Sierra Leone (467, 73.5%); Azerbaijan (589, 90.2%); United Arab Emirates (662, 41.8%); Liberia (688, 91.1%); Pakistan (716, 48.2%); Kyrgyzstan (766, 94.9%); Morocco (815, 47.9%); Armenia (906, 84.4%); Tajikistan (1201, 64.2%); Cote d'Ivoire (1216, 92.1%); Guinea-Bissau (1279, 76.7%); Hungary (1354, 31.1%); Mongolia (1465, 66.4%); Afghanistan (1599, 75.3%); Kuwait (1607, 58.4%); Qatar (1689, 9.9%); Yemen (1956, 74.3%); Egypt (2200, 91.7%); Haiti (2606, 78.0%); Central African Republic (3001, 76.0%); Kazakhstan (4151, 80.5%); Madagascar (5069, 98.3%); Portugal (5296, 95.4%); Russia (5399, 87.0%); Panama (11066, 97.8%); Somalia (106592, 77.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (15): ME (253, 53.2%); NC (274, 85.3%); MT (300, 90.1%); GU (350, 70.9%); VI (383, 90.2%); HI (555, 92.5%); OK (646, 93.2%); SD (867, 58.0%); MA (1202, 24.5%); WV (1424, 97.3%); AZ (2027, 97.3%); UT (2370, 98.3%); MN (6471, 52.1%); NH (7749, 29.8%); CT (17381, 77.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 10.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NB (25, 4.1%)

We had a second day of decreasing active cases in Ontario, dropping 48 cases back to 1,492. The 103 new cases were about 6.7% of the active cases, which is a little lower than the equilibrium replacement level. Ottawa was down from 33 to 14 cases, almost back to where it was a week ago. Peel was down from 25 to 15; Toronto 28 to 24; Windsor-Essex 39 to 23. The only region showing a significant increase in new cases was Niagara, up from 2 to 10.

An online dinner conversation with a friend led me to thinking about what how many cases of COVID-19 are actually active in Toronto right now. As of yesterday, the official number was 477, and I had been thinking simplistically that the ratio between the overall case fatality ratio (number of deaths divided by number of confirmed cases) and the roughly 1% that seems to be the best guess for the disease's infection fatality ratio would be a good way to estimate the number of undiagnosed and asymptomatic cases. That is, if 7% of our known cases have died, and we were only expecting 1%, then we probably only recognized 1/7 of the actual cases.

The problem is that testing practices have changed a lot over the course of the pandemic, and when things were very bad, we weren't testing much and losing a lot of people. So it would be better to estimate current numbers using more recent data. I looked at how one-week averages of deaths compared to one-week averages of new cases with a two-week lag, and they have been at close to 4% for about a month. So if I would estimate that if the city knows of 477 cases, there are probably closer to 1,900 cases, and the probability that that random stranger who just breathed on you has an active case of COVID-19 is down to about 1 in 1,600.

Quebec's active case numbers continued to increase, as they have for the whole week since the new system was put into place, up from 1,556 to 1,913. Canada's active total has increased over that period from 4,394 to 5,376. There are moderate grounds for short-term optimism: the new daily cases decreased three days in a row for Canada, from 786 to 432. The 786 was a big outlier though, which is still skewing our trend-line.

Japan set a record for new cases today (927), with 40% of the cases being in Tokyo. The new wave comes at a particularly bad time for the country, after the government began a four-day holiday weekend by launching a new domestic travel incentive programme, offering 35% subsidies that are expected to rise to 50% in the fall. I can understand the country's constitution not permitting the government to restrict people's movements even in an emergency, but I do not see the societal value in encouraging people to travel with the virus.

Romania is experiencing a sharp increase in new cases. Although their numbers had never dropped much below the 200 mark, they have been near or over 1,000 for three days now. One possible reason is public resistance to mandatory quarantine, that led to a court challenge earlier this month resulting in emergency legislation finally authorizing necessary measures.

Today's chart shows all my regular regions of interest, in the original chart format. It makes me wish even more that I were in Thailand right now.

Stay safe.

2020-07-22

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-362.3→-428.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), Alabama (-5→-10), U.S. (-5→-6), Brazil (0→0), California (2→2), South Africa (13→12), Israel (15→16), India (76→72), Romania (81→81), Australia (112→104), Spain (140→140), Indonesia (180→179), Japan (192→192), Austria (213→236), U.K. (351→328), France (365→365), Ontario (421→374), Denmark (427→427), Malaysia (3596→2799), Norway (1606→2923), Thailand (3645→4086), China (44139→35135)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: India, Australia, U.K.

The same: South Africa, Indonesia

Better: Brazil, California, Israel, Romania, Spain, Japan, France

Much better: Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Canada (20→20, 13.4%), Malta (14→37, 1.5%), New Zealand (118→203, 2.7%), Poland (417→369, 66.9%), Iran (770→722, 64.0%), Turkey (1169→790, 17.5%), Italy (740→928, 14.6%), Sweden (773→1101, 82.2%), South Korea (641→1354, 13.0%), Germany (new→1634, 8.4%), Singapore (new→1928, 26.4%), Mexico (22163→2346, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Barbados (14, 11.5%); Belize (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 65.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 66.5%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Taiwan (14, 1.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (24, 4.1%); Equatorial Guinea (41, 42.1%); Iceland (46, 0.9%); Finland (48, 5.1%); Uganda (48, 8.1%); Comoros (66, 9.6%); Cuba (72, 6.4%); Monaco (79, 11.3%); Jamaica (83, 24.9%); Djibouti (85, 5.8%); Estonia (86, 4.5%); Cameroon (98, 49.2%); Pakistan (126, 51.4%); Burma (140, 49.3%); Guatemala (152, 74.0%); United Arab Emirates (182, 44.2%); Belarus (229, 34.3%); Hungary (242, 31.7%); Nepal (269, 64.3%); Morocco (278, 49.9%); Georgia (398, 36.2%); Saudi Arabia (408, 82.1%); Chile (417, 35.5%); Burkina Faso (585, 33.3%); Armenia (925, 88.2%); Sudan (1024, 81.9%); Azerbaijan (1065, 96.3%); Russia (1190, 87.8%); Qatar (1207, 10.2%); Central African Republic (1255, 76.8%); Mali (1276, 79.2%); Egypt (1354, 93.5%); Mauritania (1405, 79.7%); Afghanistan (1432, 77.2%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1476, 84.3%); Bahrain (1517, 71.9%); Portugal (1997, 96.2%); Guyana (2178, 91.1%); Guinea (2340, 70.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (2395, 95.0%); Moldova (2519, 87.5%); Kuwait (2687, 59.9%); Liberia (4310, 94.8%); Tajikistan (5594, 65.9%); Ecuador (77912, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): GU (270, 75.2%); NH (367, 29.9%); SD (606, 60.0%); HI (813, 96.9%); NJ (3586, 74.2%); VT (3622, 27.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NL (11, 0.0%); BC (14, 28.9%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 40.0%); QC (15, 8.8%); PE (42, 35.0%)

Ontario has now had three consecutive days of increases in its active case count, rising another 48 cases to 1,446 today. The last time its active case count rose three days in a row was late May. The rebound has been slight so far however, and takes us only back to where we were a week ago. The number of recoveries each day has remained relatively stable, but yesterday and today, we have seen about 50 more new cases than the previous week's average of 115. The number of recoveries each day has remained relatively stable, but yesterday and today, we have seen about 50 more new cases than the previous week's average of 115. When the number of new cases is as great as the current 12% of the number of active cases, it means that the epidemic is spreading much faster than its equilibrium point of 7~8%.

Ontario's 164 new cases are dominated by Ottawa (which had been mostly in the single digits daily for a while, stayed in the teens with 16), Peel (up from 13 to 48 cases), Toronto (down from 47 to 25 cases), and Windsor-Essex (down from 47 to 37 cases).

The age range where the virus was spreading fastest today was 20-39, where there were 21.9 new cases per million population, compared to 13.5 in the 40-59 and 80+ ranges, 6.4 among those 60-79, and 4.3 among under 20s.

In our third day of standard statistics from the province of Quebec, we see a larger increase of 142 active cases over yesterday's 63.

All other provinces saw a stable level of active cases, although in the case of Alberta it appears to be because statistics are not updated on weekends.

Today's chart shows how countries in Africa are coping with the pandemic, stacked from the bottom starting with the country whose active cases are most numerous among those that have seen an increase in the last week (South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, ...) and then continuing in the same order with those whose active cases are decreasing (Algeria, Djibouti, South Sudan, Madagascar, ...).

Stay safe.

2020-07-21

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-362.3→-428.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), Alabama (-5→-10), U.S. (-5→-6), Brazil (0→0), California (2→2), South Africa (13→12), Israel (15→16), India (76→72), Romania (81→81), Australia (112→104), Spain (140→140), Indonesia (180→179), Japan (192→192), Austria (213→236), U.K. (351→328), France (365→365), Ontario (421→374), Denmark (427→427), Malaysia (3596→2799), Norway (1606→2923), Thailand (3645→4086), China (44139→35135)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: India, Australia, U.K.

The same: South Africa, Indonesia

Better: Brazil, California, Israel, Romania, Spain, Japan, France

Much better: Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Canada (20→20, 13.4%), Malta (14→37, 1.5%), New Zealand (118→203, 2.7%), Poland (417→369, 66.9%), Iran (770→722, 64.0%), Turkey (1169→790, 17.5%), Italy (740→928, 14.6%), Sweden (773→1101, 82.2%), South Korea (641→1354, 13.0%), Germany (new→1634, 8.4%), Singapore (new→1928, 26.4%), Mexico (22163→2346, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Barbados (14, 11.5%); Belize (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 65.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 66.5%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Taiwan (14, 1.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (24, 4.1%); Equatorial Guinea (41, 42.1%); Iceland (46, 0.9%); Finland (48, 5.1%); Uganda (48, 8.1%); Comoros (66, 9.6%); Cuba (72, 6.4%); Monaco (79, 11.3%); Jamaica (83, 24.9%); Djibouti (85, 5.8%); Estonia (86, 4.5%); Cameroon (98, 49.2%); Pakistan (126, 51.4%); Burma (140, 49.3%); Guatemala (152, 74.0%); United Arab Emirates (182, 44.2%); Belarus (229, 34.3%); Hungary (242, 31.7%); Nepal (269, 64.3%); Morocco (278, 49.9%); Georgia (398, 36.2%); Saudi Arabia (408, 82.1%); Chile (417, 35.5%); Burkina Faso (585, 33.3%); Armenia (925, 88.2%); Sudan (1024, 81.9%); Azerbaijan (1065, 96.3%); Russia (1190, 87.8%); Qatar (1207, 10.2%); Central African Republic (1255, 76.8%); Mali (1276, 79.2%); Egypt (1354, 93.5%); Mauritania (1405, 79.7%); Afghanistan (1432, 77.2%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1476, 84.3%); Bahrain (1517, 71.9%); Portugal (1997, 96.2%); Guyana (2178, 91.1%); Guinea (2340, 70.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (2395, 95.0%); Moldova (2519, 87.5%); Kuwait (2687, 59.9%); Liberia (4310, 94.8%); Tajikistan (5594, 65.9%); Ecuador (77912, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): GU (270, 75.2%); NH (367, 29.9%); SD (606, 60.0%); HI (813, 96.9%); NJ (3586, 74.2%); VT (3622, 27.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NL (11, 0.0%); BC (14, 28.9%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 40.0%); QC (15, 8.8%); PE (42, 35.0%)

Ontario has now had three consecutive days of increases in its active case count, rising another 48 cases to 1,446 today. The last time its active case count rose three days in a row was late May. The rebound has been slight so far however, and takes us only back to where we were a week ago. The number of recoveries each day has remained relatively stable, but yesterday and today, we have seen about 50 more new cases than the previous week's average of 115. The number of recoveries each day has remained relatively stable, but yesterday and today, we have seen about 50 more new cases than the previous week's average of 115. When the number of new cases is as great as the current 12% of the number of active cases, it means that the epidemic is spreading much faster than its equilibrium point of 7~8%.

Ontario's 164 new cases are dominated by Ottawa (which had been mostly in the single digits daily for a while, stayed in the teens with 16), Peel (up from 13 to 48 cases), Toronto (down from 47 to 25 cases), and Windsor-Essex (down from 47 to 37 cases).

The age range where the virus was spreading fastest today was 20-39, where there were 21.9 new cases per million population, compared to 13.5 in the 40-59 and 80+ ranges, 6.4 among those 60-79, and 4.3 among under 20s.

In our third day of standard statistics from the province of Quebec, we see a larger increase of 142 active cases over yesterday's 63.

All other provinces saw a stable level of active cases, although in the case of Alberta it appears to be because statistics are not updated on weekends.

Today's chart shows how countries in Africa are coping with the pandemic, stacked from the bottom starting with the country whose active cases are most numerous among those that have seen an increase in the last week (South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, ...) and then continuing in the same order with those whose active cases are decreasing (Algeria, Djibouti, South Sudan, Madagascar, ...).

Stay safe.

2020-07-20

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-362.3→-428.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), Alabama (-5→-10), U.S. (-5→-6), Brazil (0→0), California (2→2), South Africa (13→12), Israel (15→16), India (76→72), Romania (81→81), Australia (112→104), Spain (140→140), Indonesia (180→179), Japan (192→192), Austria (213→236), U.K. (351→328), France (365→365), Ontario (421→374), Denmark (427→427), Malaysia (3596→2799), Norway (1606→2923), Thailand (3645→4086), China (44139→35135)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: India, Australia, U.K.

The same: South Africa, Indonesia

Better: Brazil, California, Israel, Romania, Spain, Japan, France

Much better: Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Canada (20→20, 13.4%), Malta (14→37, 1.5%), New Zealand (118→203, 2.7%), Poland (417→369, 66.9%), Iran (770→722, 64.0%), Turkey (1169→790, 17.5%), Italy (740→928, 14.6%), Sweden (773→1101, 82.2%), South Korea (641→1354, 13.0%), Germany (new→1634, 8.4%), Singapore (new→1928, 26.4%), Mexico (22163→2346, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Barbados (14, 11.5%); Belize (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 65.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 66.5%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Taiwan (14, 1.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (24, 4.1%); Equatorial Guinea (41, 42.1%); Iceland (46, 0.9%); Finland (48, 5.1%); Uganda (48, 8.1%); Comoros (66, 9.6%); Cuba (72, 6.4%); Monaco (79, 11.3%); Jamaica (83, 24.9%); Djibouti (85, 5.8%); Estonia (86, 4.5%); Cameroon (98, 49.2%); Pakistan (126, 51.4%); Burma (140, 49.3%); Guatemala (152, 74.0%); United Arab Emirates (182, 44.2%); Belarus (229, 34.3%); Hungary (242, 31.7%); Nepal (269, 64.3%); Morocco (278, 49.9%); Georgia (398, 36.2%); Saudi Arabia (408, 82.1%); Chile (417, 35.5%); Burkina Faso (585, 33.3%); Armenia (925, 88.2%); Sudan (1024, 81.9%); Azerbaijan (1065, 96.3%); Russia (1190, 87.8%); Qatar (1207, 10.2%); Central African Republic (1255, 76.8%); Mali (1276, 79.2%); Egypt (1354, 93.5%); Mauritania (1405, 79.7%); Afghanistan (1432, 77.2%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1476, 84.3%); Bahrain (1517, 71.9%); Portugal (1997, 96.2%); Guyana (2178, 91.1%); Guinea (2340, 70.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (2395, 95.0%); Moldova (2519, 87.5%); Kuwait (2687, 59.9%); Liberia (4310, 94.8%); Tajikistan (5594, 65.9%); Ecuador (77912, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): GU (270, 75.2%); NH (367, 29.9%); SD (606, 60.0%); HI (813, 96.9%); NJ (3586, 74.2%); VT (3622, 27.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NL (11, 0.0%); BC (14, 28.9%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 40.0%); QC (15, 8.8%); PE (42, 35.0%)

Ontario has now had three consecutive days of increases in its active case count, rising another 48 cases to 1,446 today. The last time its active case count rose three days in a row was late May. The rebound has been slight so far however, and takes us only back to where we were a week ago. The number of recoveries each day has remained relatively stable, but yesterday and today, we have seen about 50 more new cases than the previous week's average of 115. The number of recoveries each day has remained relatively stable, but yesterday and today, we have seen about 50 more new cases than the previous week's average of 115. When the number of new cases is as great as the current 12% of the number of active cases, it means that the epidemic is spreading much faster than its equilibrium point of 7~8%.

Ontario's 164 new cases are dominated by Ottawa (which had been mostly in the single digits daily for a while, stayed in the teens with 16), Peel (up from 13 to 48 cases), Toronto (down from 47 to 25 cases), and Windsor-Essex (down from 47 to 37 cases).

The age range where the virus was spreading fastest today was 20-39, where there were 21.9 new cases per million population, compared to 13.5 in the 40-59 and 80+ ranges, 6.4 among those 60-79, and 4.3 among under 20s.

In our third day of standard statistics from the province of Quebec, we see a larger increase of 142 active cases over yesterday's 63.

All other provinces saw a stable level of active cases, although in the case of Alberta it appears to be because statistics are not updated on weekends.

Today's chart shows how countries in Africa are coping with the pandemic, stacked from the bottom starting with the country whose active cases are most numerous among those that have seen an increase in the last week (South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, ...) and then continuing in the same order with those whose active cases are decreasing (Algeria, Djibouti, South Sudan, Madagascar, ...).

Stay safe.

2020-07-19

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-362.3→-428.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), Alabama (-5→-10), U.S. (-5→-6), Brazil (0→0), California (2→2), South Africa (13→12), Israel (15→16), India (76→72), Romania (81→81), Australia (112→104), Spain (140→140), Indonesia (180→179), Japan (192→192), Austria (213→236), U.K. (351→328), France (365→365), Ontario (421→374), Denmark (427→427), Malaysia (3596→2799), Norway (1606→2923), Thailand (3645→4086), China (44139→35135)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: India, Australia, U.K.

The same: South Africa, Indonesia

Better: Brazil, California, Israel, Romania, Spain, Japan, France

Much better: Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Canada (20→20, 13.4%), Malta (14→37, 1.5%), New Zealand (118→203, 2.7%), Poland (417→369, 66.9%), Iran (770→722, 64.0%), Turkey (1169→790, 17.5%), Italy (740→928, 14.6%), Sweden (773→1101, 82.2%), South Korea (641→1354, 13.0%), Germany (new→1634, 8.4%), Singapore (new→1928, 26.4%), Mexico (22163→2346, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Barbados (14, 11.5%); Belize (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 65.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 66.5%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Taiwan (14, 1.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (24, 4.1%); Equatorial Guinea (41, 42.1%); Iceland (46, 0.9%); Finland (48, 5.1%); Uganda (48, 8.1%); Comoros (66, 9.6%); Cuba (72, 6.4%); Monaco (79, 11.3%); Jamaica (83, 24.9%); Djibouti (85, 5.8%); Estonia (86, 4.5%); Cameroon (98, 49.2%); Pakistan (126, 51.4%); Burma (140, 49.3%); Guatemala (152, 74.0%); United Arab Emirates (182, 44.2%); Belarus (229, 34.3%); Hungary (242, 31.7%); Nepal (269, 64.3%); Morocco (278, 49.9%); Georgia (398, 36.2%); Saudi Arabia (408, 82.1%); Chile (417, 35.5%); Burkina Faso (585, 33.3%); Armenia (925, 88.2%); Sudan (1024, 81.9%); Azerbaijan (1065, 96.3%); Russia (1190, 87.8%); Qatar (1207, 10.2%); Central African Republic (1255, 76.8%); Mali (1276, 79.2%); Egypt (1354, 93.5%); Mauritania (1405, 79.7%); Afghanistan (1432, 77.2%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1476, 84.3%); Bahrain (1517, 71.9%); Portugal (1997, 96.2%); Guyana (2178, 91.1%); Guinea (2340, 70.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (2395, 95.0%); Moldova (2519, 87.5%); Kuwait (2687, 59.9%); Liberia (4310, 94.8%); Tajikistan (5594, 65.9%); Ecuador (77912, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): GU (270, 75.2%); NH (367, 29.9%); SD (606, 60.0%); HI (813, 96.9%); NJ (3586, 74.2%); VT (3622, 27.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NL (11, 0.0%); BC (14, 28.9%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 40.0%); QC (15, 8.8%); PE (42, 35.0%)

Ontario has now had three consecutive days of increases in its active case count, rising another 48 cases to 1,446 today. The last time its active case count rose three days in a row was late May. The rebound has been slight so far however, and takes us only back to where we were a week ago. The number of recoveries each day has remained relatively stable, but yesterday and today, we have seen about 50 more new cases than the previous week's average of 115. The number of recoveries each day has remained relatively stable, but yesterday and today, we have seen about 50 more new cases than the previous week's average of 115. When the number of new cases is as great as the current 12% of the number of active cases, it means that the epidemic is spreading much faster than its equilibrium point of 7~8%.

Ontario's 164 new cases are dominated by Ottawa (which had been mostly in the single digits daily for a while, stayed in the teens with 16), Peel (up from 13 to 48 cases), Toronto (down from 47 to 25 cases), and Windsor-Essex (down from 47 to 37 cases).

The age range where the virus was spreading fastest today was 20-39, where there were 21.9 new cases per million population, compared to 13.5 in the 40-59 and 80+ ranges, 6.4 among those 60-79, and 4.3 among under 20s.

In our third day of standard statistics from the province of Quebec, we see a larger increase of 142 active cases over yesterday's 63.

All other provinces saw a stable level of active cases, although in the case of Alberta it appears to be because statistics are not updated on weekends.

Today's chart shows how countries in Africa are coping with the pandemic, stacked from the bottom starting with the country whose active cases are most numerous among those that have seen an increase in the last week (South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, ...) and then continuing in the same order with those whose active cases are decreasing (Algeria, Djibouti, South Sudan, Madagascar, ...).

Stay safe.

2020-07-18

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-396.7→-362.3), Alabama (-5→-5), U.S. (-4→-5), Brazil (1→0), California (3→2), South Africa (14→13), Israel (16→15), Singapore (27→30), India (78→76), Romania (81→81), Australia (104→112), Spain (122→140), Indonesia (182→180), Japan (225→192), Austria (316→213), U.K. (305→351), France (365→365), Ontario (474→421), Denmark (427→427), Germany (613→581), Norway (1736→1606), Malaysia (6616→3596), Thailand (3645→3645), China (44139→44139)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Japan, Austria

Worse: India, Indonesia

The same: Brazil, California, South Africa, Israel

Better: Romania, Australia, France

Much better: Singapore, Spain, U.K.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (37→14, 1.1%), Canada (new→20, 12.9%), New Zealand (86→118, 2.4%), Poland (529→417, 67.6%), South Korea (427→641, 13.1%), Italy (736→740, 14.7%), Iran (621→770, 65.3%), Sweden (501→773, 82.2%), Turkey (1039→1169, 17.8%), Louisiana (new→3015, 98.5%), Mexico (1220→22163, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (60): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Barbados (14, 11.5%); Fiji (14, 65.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 50.0%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Sierra Leone (14, 78.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Taiwan (21, 1.5%); Niger (22, 3.9%); Iceland (23, 1.0%); Comoros (36, 9.6%); Finland (36, 4.3%); Uganda (37, 6.9%); Equatorial Guinea (41, 42.1%); Jamaica (49, 23.5%); Djibouti (68, 5.8%); Cuba (77, 6.7%); Monaco (79, 11.3%); Estonia (89, 4.6%); Cameroon (98, 49.2%); Morocco (125, 49.3%); Hungary (143, 30.5%); Chad (159, 3.0%); Pakistan (159, 55.4%); Burma (180, 50.1%); United Arab Emirates (190, 45.3%); Georgia (193, 36.9%); Saudi Arabia (247, 83.0%); Burkina Faso (260, 32.7%); Belarus (267, 35.7%); Central African Republic (303, 73.8%); Nepal (315, 64.8%); Chile (345, 36.0%); Guinea (443, 68.7%); Ghana (480, 55.5%); Armenia (548, 89.7%); Mauritania (857, 79.3%); Iraq (882, 94.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (925, 83.5%); Russia (1045, 88.4%); Portugal (1164, 96.6%); Kuwait (1170, 59.6%); Qatar (1215, 10.2%); Sudan (1251, 80.0%); Bahrain (1422, 72.7%); Egypt (1443, 94.4%); Moldova (2453, 87.1%); Tajikistan (2454, 65.8%); Mali (2608, 81.1%); Azerbaijan (2624, 98.1%); Afghanistan (4595, 78.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): MP (18, 54.5%); GU (212, 75.2%); NH (435, 31.4%); SD (2844, 61.4%); NJ (17192, 74.7%); MA (26541, 24.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); NL (12, 0.0%); QC (14, 8.1%); YT (14, 40.0%); PE (42, 35.0%); BC (2507, 28.9%)

Ontario had a second consecutive day of increased active cases, increasing 32 to 1,398. New cases were up significantly in Ottawa (from 7 cases to 19), Peel (3 to 13), and Windsor-Essex (21 to 47), and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (1 to 7), and somewhat in Toronto (38 to 47).

I went shopping at the farmer's market today, and compared to last week I noticed that security was not limiting the number of patrons in the building at the same time anymore, but still screening them and more importantly making sure that they were properly wearing masks. Once inside, 99% of patrons kept their faces covered from nose to chin. Some butchers, that I will no longer patronize, had all of their employees use their masks as beard cozies.

Quebec's second day of active case numbers using their new, closer to standard, model, gives us our first look at how things are actually spreading there. 158 new cases helped boost the active case count by 63 cases (4%) to 1,619. That's a significant increase: Ontario has only hit 4% three times since the beginning of May. 158 is also more than 10% of the previous day's active case count, which is well above a level corresponding to R=1, indicating that things are getting slowly worse in Quebec. I hope it was just a single, randomly bad day.

Taking a quick look at the rest of the provinces: B.C. is holding roughly steady at ~200 active cases; Alberta had a small dip from 1,610 to 1,585 breaking a 16-day run up from 999; Saskatchewan (where I hear the problem is a widespread outbreak among the Hutterite community) is up again for the fourth day to 134 from 45 a week ago; the situation elsewhere is stable and at a miniscule level of active cases.

Looking globally, the active case count in the United States continues to increase daily at about 2%, and they just had their first two days with 70K+ new cases confirmed. California, Florida and Texas are contributing about 10K cases daily, and Arizona and Georgia about 4K each.

According to the Japanese news this morning, Tokyo saw a little less than 300 new cases, or a little less than half of the country's rapidly rising daily total. Reports said that 10% were people working in the hospitality/entertainment industry, a very slightly smaller number were transmission at work in other industries. I have heard that it is mostly business as usual in Japan, but clearly this needs to slow down a bit very soon.

Today's chart shows how countries in Asia and Oceania are doing, plotting cumulative confirmed cases vs. rate of change.

Stay safe.

2020-07-17

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-396.7→-396.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), Alabama (-5→-5), U.S. (-3→-4), Brazil (2→1), California (5→3), South Africa (15→14), Israel (16→16), Singapore (28→27), India (81→78), Romania (93→81), Australia (127→104), Spain (122→122), Indonesia (185→182), Japan (225→225), U.K. (321→305), Austria (316→316), Canada (323→398), Denmark (427→427), Norway (1784→1736), Thailand (3642→3645), China (86063→44139)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Romania, Australia, U.K.

Worse: India, Indonesia

The same: Brazil, South Africa, Singapore

Better: Israel, Spain, Japan, Austria

Much better: Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (new→14, 3.0%), Malta (15→37, 1.5%), New Zealand (new→86, 2.3%), Toronto (203→157, 17.6%), South Korea (1128→427, 13.4%), Germany (405→494, 8.2%), Sweden (595→501, 82.8%), Poland (513→529, 69.5%), Iran (850→621, 65.5%), Italy (645→736, 14.7%), Turkey (842→1039, 18.0%), Mexico (557→1220, 93.8%), Ontario (new→2988, 48.0%), France (new→75698, 59.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Andorra (14, 5.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 31.8%); Bhutan (14, 19.4%); Fiji (14, 65.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 3.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Papua New Guinea (14, 42.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 50.0%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 1.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zambia (14, 70.2%); Taiwan (21, 1.5%); Iceland (23, 1.1%); Finland (31, 3.9%); Comoros (36, 9.6%); Equatorial Guinea (41, 42.1%); Uganda (48, 7.7%); Chad (57, 3.0%); Djibouti (61, 5.9%); Monaco (79, 11.3%); Cameroon (98, 49.2%); Morocco (103, 54.4%); Cuba (112, 8.0%); Estonia (118, 4.9%); Jamaica (127, 31.7%); Burkina Faso (210, 32.1%); Hungary (210, 33.7%); Nepal (214, 66.9%); Qatar (218, 10.2%); Saudi Arabia (278, 84.5%); Central African Republic (283, 78.0%); Mali (294, 79.2%); Ghana (296, 58.7%); Chile (315, 35.7%); United Arab Emirates (346, 49.7%); Pakistan (352, 70.6%); Belarus (388, 37.0%); Georgia (398, 36.2%); Armenia (608, 90.8%); Bahrain (608, 72.5%); Sierra Leone (644, 78.2%); Montenegro (708, 90.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (936, 84.8%); Iraq (959, 95.5%); Burma (1228, 50.9%); Gabon (1360, 76.1%); Egypt (1644, 95.5%); Portugal (1680, 96.6%); Mauritania (1926, 80.2%); Russia (1950, 89.0%); Moldova (1964, 87.9%); Kuwait (2239, 61.4%); Afghanistan (2588, 79.0%); Tajikistan (2633, 66.2%); Seychelles (3448, 53.1%); Haiti (3668, 80.4%); Togo (4554, 81.6%); Azerbaijan (5011, 99.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): MP (18, 54.5%); WV (129, 72.3%); GU (210, 81.2%); NH (318, 31.4%); ME (389, 57.0%); WY (899, 97.0%); SD (3700, 62.1%); MA (5678, 23.7%); NJ (29309, 74.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NL (13, 0.0%); NS (14, 0.4%); QC (14, 7.8%); YT (14, 40.0%); PE (79, 35.0%); BC (5001, 28.9%)

The Canadian province of Quebec has brought its algorithm for calculating active (unresolved) cases more closely in line with generally accepted practices. Most regions (including all other parts of Canada) declare cases resolved if they are neither deceased nor receiving medical care 14 days after diagnosis. Quebec had been waiting until patients had had a negative COVID-19 test. I suppose one should be thankful that they weren't being more rigorous and requiring multiple negative tests. Their new algorithm is still slightly more conservative than elsewhere, waiting 21 days for immunocompromised patients, and 28 days for those over 80 or in long-term care facilities. Even so, it brings their active case count down by almost an order of magnitude, from over 15,000 (or according to some models, over 25,000) to just 1,556 or less than half of Ontario's 3,146. It also drops Canada's total active case count down from 20,000-30,000 depending on algorithm to fewer than 6,000.

Ontario, which had been averaging about 10% fewer new daily cases than recoveries, had a randomly bad day and showed an increase of one active case, bringing us to 1,356 and ending a five-day run of decreases. Curiously, the province also reported a decrease in one cumulative death in long-term care; had that negative death not been counted, we would have broken even for the day.

In Toronto, we dropped 44 active cases over two days to 527: 81 new cases, 118 recoveries and 7 deaths. 7% new cases daily per active case is still close to the equilibrium point, but it's better than being higher, and I can't complain about our two-week run (and counting) of slowly declining active cases.

.

Across Canada over the past week according to CMAJ numbers (which differ significantly in some cases from official provincial numbers), B.C. is up 1% daily to 207, Alberta +5% to 859, Saskatchewan +17% to 128, Manitoba from 4 to 11, Ontario -1% to 3,142, Quebec whatever, N.B. from 1 to 3, P.E.I from 6 to 7, N.S. from 3 to 2, N and L from 1 to 0 (hooray); Yukon from 0 to 2 (announced today, travel-related), NWT and Nunavut 0.

The daily active cases for each Canadian region are shown in today's stacked chart, including the precipitous drop at the end caused by the Quebec adjustment.

South of the border, Hawaii is the only state with fewer than 1 in 1,000 (1,078) residents cumulatively confirmed/positive; the next nearest are around the 1 in 500: Vermont (471), Montana (459). At the other end, New York and New Jersey have crossed the 2% threshold at about 1 in 48 each. Eyeballing the chart, it looks like the median is around 1 in 120.

Stay safe.

2020-07-16

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-408.7→-396.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), Alabama (-4→-5), U.S. (-2→-3), Brazil (4→2), California (5→5), South Africa (16→15), Israel (20→16), Singapore (30→28), India (82→81), Romania (106→93), Spain (169→122), Australia (134→127), Indonesia (179→185), Japan (255→225), Austria (317→316), U.K. (292→321), Canada (365→323), France (365→365), Denmark (662→427), Ontario (450→469), Norway (2140→1784), Thailand (4323→3642), New Zealand (5313→4253), Malaysia (4186→6616), China (71710→86063)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, Israel, Romania, Spain, Australia, Japan, Canada

Worse: Singapore

The same: South Africa, India, Austria

Better: California, Indonesia, France

Much better: U.K.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (27→15, 1.5%), Germany (new→405, 8.0%), Poland (745→513, 70.4%), Mexico (4344→557, 92.4%), Sweden (793→595, 83.9%), Italy (1052→645, 14.8%), Turkey (609→842, 18.2%), Iran (673→850, 67.6%), South Korea (1032→1128, 13.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Andorra (14, 1.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 31.8%); Bhutan (14, 14.5%); Cameroon (14, 69.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 86.1%); Fiji (14, 65.3%); Gambia (14, 89.3%); Jordan (14, 59.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 3.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Papua New Guinea (14, 42.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 50.0%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 1.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Taiwan (21, 1.5%); Seychelles (23, 44.1%); Finland (34, 4.1%); Uganda (39, 8.1%); Djibouti (75, 6.9%); Comoros (82, 11.5%); Morocco (85, 51.2%); Jamaica (94, 31.1%); Monaco (94, 13.0%); Iceland (118, 1.5%); Hungary (142, 34.6%); Qatar (148, 10.4%); Nepal (186, 67.5%); Eritrea (190, 57.8%); Zambia (200, 70.2%); Estonia (217, 5.2%); Benin (247, 58.0%); Burkina Faso (285, 32.1%); Ghana (286, 59.7%); Pakistan (289, 70.6%); Mali (298, 80.1%); Cuba (306, 8.7%); Central African Republic (322, 79.1%); Slovenia (330, 37.9%); Botswana (357, 69.3%); Bahrain (376, 72.0%); Saudi Arabia (399, 87.4%); Belarus (435, 38.7%); Togo (466, 81.6%); Chile (468, 37.1%); Burundi (478, 84.7%); Guinea-Bissau (583, 75.4%); Niger (667, 7.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (756, 85.2%); United Arab Emirates (961, 54.0%); Iraq (997, 93.9%); Sierra Leone (1095, 78.8%); Armenia (1289, 91.1%); Gabon (1360, 76.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1368, 97.8%); Haiti (1397, 78.0%); Afghanistan (1571, 79.5%); Mauritania (1621, 80.4%); Czechia (1709, 97.9%); Egypt (1986, 96.0%); Portugal (2069, 96.8%); Tajikistan (2086, 66.3%); Kuwait (2927, 60.5%); Moldova (7911, 89.7%); Somalia (10673, 77.1%); Russia (18313, 89.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): MP (14, 45.5%); GU (210, 81.2%); ME (266, 54.6%); NC (278, 85.6%); NH (661, 32.0%); SD (977, 60.4%); MS (1641, 97.6%); WY (1816, 98.5%); DE (2294, 97.5%); MA (3042, 23.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%)

Ontario dropped 77 active cases in two days, bringing it to 1,365 and less than a quarter of its peak. We are averaging about 10% more recoveries than new cases daily, which is enough to keep us drifting very slowly in the right direction.

Today's chart shows how all of the continents are doing in terms of active cases of COVID-19. Spoiler: not good.

Five video meetings today left very little creative time today, so that's all I've got.

Stay safe.

2020-07-15

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-408.7→-408.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), Alabama (-4→-4), U.S. (-1→-2), Brazil (5→4), California (7→5), South Africa (16→16), Israel (21→20), Singapore (33→30), India (82→82), Romania (103→106), Australia (140→134), Spain (211→169), Indonesia (172→179), Japan (231→255), U.K. (292→292), Austria (352→317), Canada (397→365), France (384→365), Denmark (662→662), Germany (1017→968), Norway (3209→2140), Malaysia (3804→4186), Thailand (2759→4323), New Zealand (5313→5313), China (71710→71710)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Australia, Spain, Austria, Canada, France

Worse: Singapore

The same: Brazil, Israel

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, U.S., South Africa, India, Romania, Indonesia, U.K.

Much better: Japan

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (16→27, 1.8%), Toronto (546→282, 19.1%), Turkey (418→609, 18.4%), Iran (569→673, 67.9%), Poland (453→745, 74.3%), Sweden (832→793, 85.5%), South Korea (660→1032, 13.3%), Italy (1794→1052, 15.3%), Mexico (4444→4344, 95.6%), Ontario (740→18058, 47.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Andorra (14, 1.4%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 31.8%); Bhutan (14, 14.5%); Chad (14, 2.8%); Comoros (14, 11.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 100.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 86.1%); Fiji (14, 65.3%); Gambia (14, 89.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 3.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 13.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 42.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 50.0%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Taiwan (14, 1.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 1.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Seychelles (21, 44.1%); Iceland (49, 1.2%); Niger (57, 7.6%); Eritrea (70, 57.8%); Jamaica (91, 32.0%); Uganda (97, 11.7%); Djibouti (110, 7.5%); Morocco (111, 56.3%); Burundi (116, 84.7%); Qatar (127, 10.5%); Hungary (132, 35.6%); Uruguay (140, 20.1%); Cuba (183, 8.2%); Zambia (200, 70.2%); Ghana (209, 59.8%); Mali (210, 81.0%); Nepal (242, 73.9%); Central African Republic (256, 78.8%); Bahrain (318, 73.6%); Togo (355, 80.3%); Botswana (357, 69.3%); Pakistan (376, 74.3%); Belarus (411, 40.5%); Honduras (517, 92.4%); Switzerland (529, 8.7%); Sierra Leone (543, 77.4%); Guinea-Bissau (583, 75.4%); Guyana (620, 92.0%); United Arab Emirates (692, 54.7%); Cameroon (702, 69.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (748, 86.2%); Benin (810, 58.0%); Chile (828, 39.3%); Saudi Arabia (830, 92.0%); Estonia (908, 5.6%); Haiti (964, 76.1%); Armenia (977, 92.1%); Paraguay (1021, 96.9%); Kuwait (1056, 60.7%); Liberia (1095, 97.3%); Gabon (1215, 75.8%); Tajikistan (1244, 66.2%); Cabo Verde (1260, 97.3%); Afghanistan (1773, 79.3%); Jordan (2062, 59.3%); Czechia (2444, 96.5%); Iraq (2485, 93.2%); Moldova (2812, 88.8%); Mauritania (2815, 81.7%); Egypt (3095, 96.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): WY (14, 97.4%); MP (17, 45.5%); NH (174, 32.2%); GU (210, 81.2%); ME (214, 53.9%); NC (241, 78.2%); MS (692, 88.1%); VT (1224, 28.1%); MA (2224, 22.4%); MN (8488, 45.4%); DE (22164, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%)

The Toronto District School Board has published its first draft proposal in response to the provincial ministry of education's requirements for reopening schools in the fall. 73% of students say that they are comfortable with the idea of returning to school in September. 66% of families say that they are okay with their children doing so. 41% of staff say that they are comfortable with returning to work. The TDSB was asked to evaluate several scenarios. The ones involving reducing classroom sizes to 15 or fewer seem to be the least practical, as they involve hiring additional staff at a cost of up to $250M to ensure that they have enough teachers who are qualified to teach all subjects up to the middle school level, where what they tend to have right now are a lot of French classes that are being taught by teachers with specific teaching skills in that area and not many others. High schools will switch to a quad-mester (my hyphen to remind me it's no good in Scrabble) system, where students will take two courses at a time for quarter years, before moving on to the next pair of subjects, to minimize the number of combinations of teachers and students that have to meet.

Toronto was down another 58 active cases to 571 in two days. That's a good steep decline, and brings us below 20% of our peak.

I took an initial look at the City of Toronto's weekly update of case-level data, and it is quite detailed. The last of seven community cases in my neighbourhood was reported on June 2nd, and there were no fatalities. Five were cases of close contact from March to June, one travel related case back in March, and one healthcare worker in March. Two women and one man in their 40s, one woman and two men in their 50s, one woman in her 70s. None were ever hospitalized.

The breakdown of the cases at the local nursing home is grimmer. One case each in their 30s, 50s, and 60s. Four in their 70s. The rest of the 47 were at least 80 years old. The man in his 60s died, as did a man and a woman in their 70s, and six more 80+. 14 are still actively infected. None were transferred to hospital.

Today's chart shows how many people in Toronto were actively infected, and how many were hospitalized. The latter group shows a curiously smooth, bell-shaped curve, while the former is much more irregular. I think it has something to do with hospital admission criteria - keeping our nursing home residents out of hospital must be a good thing, but they have accounted for a significant bulk of the active cases at times. It could also be that when there's an outbreak, the number of people that get sick enough to be hospitalized is relatively low compared to the number that suddenly start testing positive and isolating.

Stay safe.

2020-07-14

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-419.7→-408.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), Alabama (2→-4), U.S. (0→-1), Brazil (6→5), California (9→7), South Africa (15→16), Israel (23→21), India (82→82), Romania (94→103), Australia (132→140), Indonesia (169→172), Spain (211→211), Japan (231→231), U.K. (378→292), Toronto (294→294), Austria (304→352), France (384→384), Canada (400→397), Denmark (1118→662), Thailand (3830→2759), Norway (2375→3209), Malaysia (2986→3804), New Zealand (3028→5313), China (86049→71710)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, California, U.K.

Worse: Israel

The same: U.S., Brazil

Better: Louisiana, South Africa, India, Australia, Indonesia, Spain, Japan, Toronto

Much better: Romania, Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (14→16, 1.8%), Turkey (196→418, 18.5%), Poland (348→453, 74.2%), Iran (471→569, 69.0%), South Korea (29938→660, 13.7%), Ontario (644→740, 47.9%), Sweden (1079→832, 86.9%), Germany (3709→1093, 8.2%), Italy (1310→1794, 15.6%), Singapore (452→3698, 25.8%), Mexico (new→4444, 94.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (69): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Bhutan (14, 19.4%); Cuba (14, 8.6%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 86.1%); Fiji (14, 65.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 3.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 13.0%); Nicaragua (14, 66.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 50.0%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 1.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (15, 13.5%); Seychelles (26, 47.5%); Uganda (33, 10.8%); Niger (57, 7.6%); Eritrea (62, 64.3%); Papua New Guinea (78, 42.3%); Uruguay (78, 18.2%); Qatar (95, 10.5%); Hungary (114, 37.0%); Burundi (116, 84.7%); Djibouti (139, 8.0%); Jamaica (151, 35.5%); Ghana (162, 59.8%); Morocco (164, 64.5%); Nepal (181, 73.0%); Zambia (200, 70.2%); Mali (246, 82.0%); Bahrain (260, 74.5%); Togo (276, 80.8%); Estonia (316, 5.7%); Belarus (319, 41.2%); Vietnam (321, 13.3%); Jordan (330, 55.9%); Pakistan (337, 74.3%); Central African Republic (350, 82.0%); Benin (403, 59.1%); Gambia (439, 89.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (612, 86.7%); Cameroon (702, 69.0%); Guinea-Bissau (808, 75.4%); Paraguay (823, 92.0%); Gabon (889, 75.8%); United Arab Emirates (1141, 55.5%); Sierra Leone (1366, 78.8%); Mauritania (1445, 82.5%); Haiti (1507, 77.2%); Honduras (1529, 96.1%); Tajikistan (1538, 66.6%); Afghanistan (1783, 78.8%); Chile (1962, 40.7%); Moldova (2086, 88.5%); Sudan (2562, 82.3%); Guyana (2739, 91.7%); Czechia (2926, 96.7%); Egypt (3126, 97.4%); Armenia (4830, 96.5%); Peru (17468, 90.3%); Kuwait (29684, 61.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): NH (146, 33.5%); ME (168, 54.6%); NC (258, 72.0%); GU (351, 82.9%); MS (475, 80.3%); VT (696, 26.7%); SD (1186, 62.0%); NE (4013, 76.7%); CT (5239, 76.0%); DE (6169, 98.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%)

o news today from Toronto, because it's not Monday, Wednesday or Friday. In Ontario, we had two straight days of slight declines, dropping 28 active cases to 1,442, on the basis of about 115 new cases and 125 resolved cases each day. Our new cases per active case rate is still at about the equilibrium point, which tempers my optimism.

I got to see my aunts today, for the first time since the pandemic started. As their nursing home's second outbreak is over, we were able to meet for half an hour through glass. If I had had a recent negative COVID-19 test, we wouldn't have needed the glass, but the additional risk seemed unnecessary.

As expected, the United States passed the 1% mark yesterday in cumulative confirmed or probable cases. It joins a list of a dozen countries that have achieved this level: Qatar (3.6%), San Marino (2.1%), Bahrain, Chile, Holy See, Kuwait, Oman, Andorra, Panama, Armenia, United States, and Peru. The following countries look as though they may join the list within a month: Brazil, South Africa, Luxembourg, Israel, Montenegro, Lesotho, Saudi Arabia, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Colombia.

Over the last four days, the national median number of new cases per million population is 6, with Kenya holding that middle rank. By comparison, the United States is seeing 186 new cases daily per million population. Oman is doing the worst at 316, then Panama (287), Bahrain (286), South Africa (208).

Today's chart shows all the countries arrayed by percentage of population cumulatively affected, and the rate at which that continues to grow.

Stay safe.

2020-07-13

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-419.7→-419.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), U.S. (1→0), Alabama (2→2), Brazil (5→6), California (9→9), South Africa (15→15), Israel (25→23), Mexico (68→76), India (83→82), Romania (94→94), Australia (132→132), Indonesia (135→169), Spain (290→211), Japan (229→231), Austria (304→304), U.K. (362→378), France (384→384), Norway (2211→2375), Malaysia (3057→2986), New Zealand (3028→3028), Thailand (3443→3830), China (81949→86049)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain

Worse: Israel

The same: U.S., India

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, Brazil, California, South Africa, Romania, Australia, Japan, Austria, U.K.

Much better: Mexico, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (23→14, 1.8%), Turkey (159→196, 18.7%), Denmark (193→229, 6.8%), Poland (295→348, 74.8%), Singapore (367→452, 25.4%), Iran (574→471, 70.2%), Toronto (200→575 over three days, 21.1%), Ontario (318→644, 48.6%), Sweden (699→1079, 90.2%), Italy (598→1310, 15.6%), Germany (889→3709, 8.8%), Canada (4141→6784, 81.2%), South Korea (751→29938, 14.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (67): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Andorra (11, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 31.8%); Bhutan (14, 19.4%); Liechtenstein (14, 3.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 66.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 50.0%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vietnam (14, 13.9%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (15, 13.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (20, 5.5%); Seychelles (35, 53.4%); Niger (57, 7.6%); Uganda (58, 11.1%); Papua New Guinea (78, 42.3%); Uruguay (91, 19.8%); Monaco (94, 13.0%); Qatar (99, 12.0%); Eritrea (111, 64.3%); Hungary (142, 38.5%); Mongolia (151, 24.5%); Burundi (154, 88.2%); Ghana (179, 66.3%); Gambia (180, 89.3%); Zambia (200, 70.2%); Belarus (213, 40.9%); Equatorial Guinea (216, 86.1%); Jamaica (229, 37.6%); Nepal (258, 79.8%); Togo (363, 82.1%); United Arab Emirates (369, 55.7%); Mauritania (386, 81.6%); Mali (389, 87.1%); Jordan (413, 58.3%); South Sudan (432, 46.6%); Estonia (470, 5.7%); Bahrain (473, 77.0%); Gabon (586, 77.9%); Cabo Verde (630, 92.2%); Pakistan (689, 80.9%); Cameroon (702, 69.0%); Central African Republic (832, 87.4%); Moldova (991, 89.6%); Guyana (1010, 92.2%); Sudan (1075, 80.7%); Honduras (1166, 96.5%); Tajikistan (1342, 67.0%); Lithuania (1344, 30.0%); Chile (1733, 40.9%); Somalia (2022, 77.0%); Benin (2307, 62.6%); Egypt (3266, 98.1%); Afghanistan (3274, 80.2%); Russia (3902, 91.4%); Haiti (4075, 81.1%); Armenia (4713, 96.9%); Morocco (112666, 75.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (7): NH (175, 34.3%); ME (324, 61.1%); VT (272, 26.5%); SD (828, 62.6%); NE (2198, 75.8%); NC (18894, 65.4%); MS (538, 73.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); MB (14, 0.5%); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (25, 0.6%)

Toronto says that they are able to reach 98% of newly confirmed cases and their contacts within 24 hours. According to the city's metrics, the only areas in which they aren't meeting their objectives are test turnaround time (43% within 24 hours instead of 60%, so you are much more likely to have to wait three days to get your result than one or two), and that our seven-day moving average of daily new ases (42) has not shown a sustained two-week drop (so we are in danger of plateauing at the current level). Our neighbourhood saw one new institutional case, and no sporadic community ones.

Over the weekend, when stats weren't being reported, we saw 120 new cases in three days, 120 recoveries, and three deaths, averaging the smallest possible reduction of one active case per day over the last three days. This is somewhat disappointing, given apparently good compliance with our by-law requiring face coverings in most indoor spaces with public access. We can do better than whittling away at our 629 remaining active cases than to do so by letting one person die every day for 629 days.

Much of the province will be moving to phase 3 on Friday, when many more services can reopen. Among those that can't yet reopen are amusement parks, buffet restaurants, dance clubs, overnight camps for children, karaoke rooms, contact sports, saunas/bathhouses, and (sigh) table games. Those parts of the province that will stay in phase 2 are the most heavily populated regions nearest the American border: Windsor, Sarnia, and the Golden Horseshoe (including Toronto).

Four American states have shown a drop in active cases over the last seven days: New Hampshire (3.7% to 636), Maine (2.6% to 436), Vermont (2% to 149), and South Dakota (1% to 872). Well done, and honourable mention to the territory of Guam (1.4% to 105). The rest of the United States is worsening, in some cases rapidly. Increasing at up to 1%: CT NE NJ NY RI DE MA NC AR IL WY DC. Up to 2%: MD UT AZ VA CO. Up to 3%: NM IN WA MO NV MS SC WI MI OR CA KY KS. Up to 4%: AL OK GA MN OH FL. Up to 5%: TX TN HI IA. The rest, up to 8%: ID LA AK WV ND MT.

The U.S. should collectively hit that 1% mark that I thought no one would tonight.

Today's chart plots how each state has done at controlling the spread of infection over the last four days using the ratio of new to active cases.

Stay safe.

2020-07-12

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-415.8→-419.7), Louisiana (-16→-16), U.S. (2→1), Alabama (2→2), Brazil (5→5), California (9→9), South Africa (17→15), Israel (23→25), Mexico (61→68), India (86→83), Romania (90→94), Australia (149→132), Indonesia (130→135), Japan (256→229), Spain (290→290), Austria (339→304), U.K. (365→362), France (384→384), Norway (1831→2211), New Zealand (3028→3028), Thailand (3278→3443), China (78217→81949)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Australia, Japan, Austria

Worse: South Africa, India, U.K.

The same: U.S.

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, Brazil, California, Romania, Indonesia, Spain

Much better: Israel, Mexico

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (23→23, 2.6%), Turkey (135→159, 19.1%), Denmark (96→193, 6.8%), Malaysia (187→272, 2.6%), Toronto (200 no new data, 21%), Poland (376→295, 76.0%), Ontario (326→318, 46.7%), Singapore (333→367, 25.9%), Iran (574→574, 71.1%), Italy (448→598, 15.7%), Sweden (423→699, 90.2%), South Korea (707→751, 13.8%), Germany (386→889, 8.7%), Canada (5549→4141, 81.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Andorra (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 31.8%); Bhutan (14, 60.6%); Comoros (14, 13.5%); Liechtenstein (14, 3.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 14.6%); Nicaragua (14, 66.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zambia (14, 80.4%); Trinidad and Tobago (20, 5.5%); Vietnam (49, 12.7%); Niger (61, 7.6%); Finland (64, 7.5%); Papua New Guinea (78, 42.3%); Uganda (93, 12.7%); Qatar (95, 13.1%); Eritrea (107, 64.3%); Uruguay (114, 19.8%); Kazakhstan (121, 70.1%); Mongolia (121, 25.5%); Chad (126, 2.5%); Burundi (154, 88.2%); Gambia (180, 89.3%); Belarus (181, 42.3%); Equatorial Guinea (216, 86.1%); Hungary (245, 42.1%); Guyana (246, 87.8%); Morocco (246, 75.9%); Mali (254, 88.0%); Mauritania (271, 82.0%); Nepal (279, 82.7%); Jordan (285, 59.3%); United Arab Emirates (363, 56.2%); Ghana (405, 67.7%); Lithuania (466, 28.3%); Chile (472, 40.7%); Benin (577, 64.9%); Cameroon (702, 69.0%); Togo (815, 85.9%); Central African Republic (857, 87.4%); Pakistan (931, 83.3%); Gabon (970, 77.9%); Haiti (992, 79.9%); Jamaica (1001, 39.0%); Armenia (1014, 94.0%); Burma (1252, 51.7%); Moldova (1262, 90.1%); Russia (1403, 90.2%); Bahrain (1457, 79.2%); Sierra Leone (1603, 80.7%); South Sudan (1778, 49.7%); Tajikistan (1834, 67.3%); Somalia (1995, 77.4%); Botswana (2710, 99.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (3063, 59.2%); Egypt (3247, 98.2%); Honduras (4292, 98.5%); Sudan (5077, 80.7%); Peru (9238, 90.1%); Netherlands (15666, 68.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): VT (14, 26.9%); NH (118, 33.4%); ME (198, 60.4%); CT (4505, 75.5%); RI (8181, 79.5%); NE (61271, 75.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.6%); NU (14, 100.0%); MB (21, 2.1%); SK (200, 20.6%); AB (1061, 18.9%)

No Toronto numbers because it's the weekend. And no fancy case stats because I spent the weekend looking at offensive slurs in Scrabble instead of COVID-19 case locations. Where are my priorities.

Ontario's active case numbers were up by 14 to 1,470 today because of unusually low recovery numbers (112, below the week's daily average of 182, and way below yesterday's 267).

Let's take a look at how the rest of Canada's provinces are doing, from west to east.

B.C. has had two weeks of slow increases in active cases, from 156 to 187. Alberta has been drifting upward for more than a month; during the past month active cases have risen from 386 to 592. Saskatchewan is recovering steadily from its latest outbreak, dropping in two and a half weeks from 104 to 43 cases. Manitoba likewise is down to its last four cases from its most recent outbreak.

Quebec is still on a monthlong plateau of about 15,000 active cases. New Brunswick's second wave is down to its last case. Prince Edward Island was free of COVID-19 for almost two months, but had an outbreak nine days ago, and found another unrelated new case today, bringing them to 7 active cases. Newfoundland and Labrador were free for a week, and now have three cases. Yukon had eleven cases cumulative, but hasn't had any new ones in a while, despite all the Americans claiming to be entering Canada to drive to Alaska. No new cases in the Northwest Territories in a long time, and they have ended their state of emergency. Nunavut had one fly-in worker test positive on June 30th, leading eight local residents to have to isolate; none of them contracted the disease, so the territory has been declared free of COVID-19 again.

Today's graphic shows the gradual descent of Canada's regions down to the zero growth line in their cumulative case numbers, some more gracefully than others.

Stay safe.

2020-07-11

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-483.2→-415.8), Louisiana (-12→-16), Alabama (2→2), U.S. (4→2), Brazil (6→5), California (9→9), South Africa (17→17), Israel (23→23), Mexico (60→61), India (88→86), Romania (120→90), Indonesia (135→130), Australia (152→149), Japan (293→256), Spain (313→290), Austria (339→339), U.K. (432→365), France (384→384), Toronto (421 no new data), Norway (1779→1831), New Zealand (3028→3028), China (78212→78217)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Romania, Indonesia, Japan, Spain, U.K.

Worse: India, Australia

The same: Brazil

Better: Alabama, California, South Africa, Israel, Mexico, Austria

Much better: Louisiana

No new data: Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (58→23, 2.6%), Denmark (56→96, 6.8%), Turkey (124→135, 19.6%), Thailand (572→144, 3.9%), Malaysia (96→187, 2.5%), Ontario (464→326, 47.4%), Singapore (248→333, 26.5%), Poland (534→376, 78.4%), Germany (433→386, 8.6%), Sweden (1346→423, 90.2%), Italy (484→448, 15.9%), Iran (745→574, 72.4%), South Korea (1510→707, 13.7%), Canada (10217→5549, 81.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (74): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Andorra (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 31.8%); Barbados (14, 1.9%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cambodia (14, 11.4%); Chad (14, 2.8%); Estonia (14, 5.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 3.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Maldives (14, 36.6%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Taiwan (14, 1.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (20, 5.5%); Vietnam (44, 12.7%); Finland (54, 7.0%); Nicaragua (71, 66.2%); Papua New Guinea (78, 42.3%); Qatar (91, 13.8%); Monaco (94, 13.0%); Suriname (108, 78.8%); Mongolia (115, 24.5%); Kazakhstan (124, 68.7%); Gambia (140, 89.3%); Benin (152, 60.0%); Morocco (178, 76.5%); Belarus (185, 44.6%); Jordan (192, 60.0%); Bhutan (203, 60.6%); Comoros (207, 33.7%); Equatorial Guinea (216, 86.1%); Mauritania (245, 82.6%); Niger (256, 10.4%); United Arab Emirates (322, 57.8%); Nepal (334, 86.5%); Chile (336, 41.4%); Togo (356, 85.9%); Hungary (405, 44.0%); Ghana (436, 70.9%); Gabon (457, 77.9%); Uruguay (471, 23.1%); Mali (579, 92.5%); Haiti (589, 78.8%); Pakistan (667, 84.4%); Madagascar (693, 88.4%); South Sudan (828, 49.7%); Armenia (966, 95.9%); Syria (986, 97.6%); Central African Republic (1025, 89.3%); Sudan (1066, 79.6%); Russia (1208, 91.0%); Burma (1252, 51.7%); Moldova (1402, 90.0%); Somalia (1517, 76.2%); Senegal (1807, 98.1%); Eritrea (2301, 77.4%); Lithuania (2591, 29.1%); Botswana (2710, 99.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (3077, 59.4%); Egypt (3321, 98.1%); Saudi Arabia (3593, 98.3%); Tajikistan (5069, 67.9%); Belgium (5851, 67.8%); Netherlands (7280, 68.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): MP (14, 77.3%); SD (14, 62.8%); ME (165, 61.1%); NH (181, 38.0%); GU (260, 89.7%); AR (426, 91.6%); MA (1524, 22.8%); RI (4044, 79.8%); NE (15342, 75.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, YT (eradicated); MB (14, 2.1%); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 0.5%); NU (14, 100.0%); NS (25, 0.6%); SK (78, 20.6%); AB (613, 18.9%)

Ontario showed another steep decline in active cases, dropping 143 to 1,456 cases on the strength of 267 reported recoveries. The number of new cases, 133, was very close to the week's average of 130. That means that the average rate of contagion is increasing, with the number of active cases dropping as the number of new cases stays steady. We're at 5% new per active though, which is still below the level at which the infection can increase.

Malta has had two new cases on two separate days in the past week, but with existing cases steadily recovering (and no recent deaths), they are down to only 7 active cases on the whole island. They're also testing extensively, as their 1.3% case fatality ratio, so it's unlikely that there are a lot more asymptomatic cases there. Half the new cases this month have been imported ones, so the actual rate of contagion is 2 non-imported cases per an average of 11 active cases over 11 days, or 2/121 = 1.7% new cases per active case per day, which should bring them down to eradication very soon.

Today's chart shows the countries that are in the most trouble according to their estimated active case counts: those that have at least 1 in 1,000 of their residents actively infected, and where that number has increased over the last four days. Panama has the highest proportion infected (1 in 211), followed by the United States (1 in 254), Oman (1 in 277), Bahrain (1 in 347) and Brazil (1 in 413). Israel has the highest growth rate in active numbers, an active 8% daily, followed by South Africa (5%), Colombia and Argentina (3%), and the United States (2%).

Stay safe.

2020-07-10

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-483.2→-483.2), Louisiana (-12→-12), Alabama (2→2), U.S. (5→4), Brazil (8→6), California (10→9), South Africa (19→17), Israel (25→23), Mexico (64→60), India (88→88), Romania (120→120), Indonesia (141→135), Australia (189→152), Japan (353→293), Spain (313→313), Austria (272→339), France (368→384), Norway (2669→1779), New Zealand (3023→3028), China (61449→78212)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Australia, Japan

Worse: South Africa, Israel

The same: U.S., California

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, India, Romania, Spain

Much better: Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (74→56, 6.8%), Malta (66→58, 3.3%), Malaysia (240→96, 2.4%), Turkey (198→124, 20.4%), Toronto (new→200, 21.2%), Singapore (265→248, 26.1%), Germany (382→433, 8.5%), Ontario (731→464, 50.3%), Italy (561→484, 15.9%), Poland (523→534, 80.9%), Thailand (new→572, 4.1%), Iran (1718→745, 74.5%), Sweden (3299→1346, 91.5%), South Korea (new→1510, 14.4%), Canada (5993→10217, 81.8%), U.K. (13086→17362, 81.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Andorra (14, 0.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 29.5%); Barbados (14, 1.9%); Belize (14, 57.1%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cambodia (14, 11.4%); Chad (14, 2.8%); Gambia (14, 92.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); San Marino (14, 0.4%); Taiwan (14, 1.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 5.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Finland (51, 6.7%); Nicaragua (71, 66.2%); Kazakhstan (81, 56.1%); Qatar (81, 15.2%); Suriname (92, 76.7%); Monaco (94, 13.0%); Maldives (97, 31.3%); Jordan (130, 60.0%); Iceland (136, 1.6%); Benin (154, 63.3%); Morocco (155, 79.6%); Uruguay (163, 23.1%); Bhutan (203, 60.6%); Comoros (207, 33.7%); Equatorial Guinea (216, 86.1%); Belarus (235, 46.6%); Burma (244, 49.3%); Mongolia (254, 27.3%); Mauritania (262, 84.4%); Guyana (280, 92.4%); Gabon (298, 78.7%); Chile (319, 41.6%); Syria (324, 91.7%); United Arab Emirates (327, 57.4%); Mali (341, 92.0%); Nepal (389, 90.1%); Haiti (417, 78.9%); Togo (425, 88.0%); South Sudan (437, 49.7%); Ghana (471, 74.5%); Niger (504, 10.4%); Hungary (543, 47.4%); Moldova (586, 90.1%); Central African Republic (618, 90.0%); Pakistan (750, 85.7%); Somalia (805, 76.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (1236, 59.4%); Saudi Arabia (1287, 96.4%); Sierra Leone (1858, 80.3%); Russia (2161, 91.6%); Armenia (2802, 97.3%); Tajikistan (3131, 68.0%); Egypt (3542, 98.8%); Belgium (4623, 67.5%); Peru (5669, 90.5%); Netherlands (8886, 68.7%); Afghanistan (9154, 80.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (28247, 91.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): MP (14, 77.3%); WY (14, 100.0%); GU (167, 88.0%); ME (191, 64.0%); VT (209, 27.6%); NH (301, 40.7%); SD (464, 63.6%); AR (804, 91.6%); MA (1066, 22.1%); RI (5347, 80.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, YT (eradicated); MB (14, 2.1%); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 0.5%); NU (14, 100.0%); NS (25, 0.6%); SK (56, 20.6%); AB (1131, 18.9%)

Toronto is still on thrice weekly reporting, but has apparently launched a new database API to give case-by-case data, so I know how I'm spending my weekend (coding). We saw 42 cases in two days, which is almost suspiciously low, as it seems way too soon for the facial covering by-law to have had an effect yet. The last time we had so few cases in two days was mid-March though, so hooray. That brings us down to 632 active cases, which is still early April levels, but dropping fast enough that we're down to only a little over half a year to projected eradication.

Ontario in the meantime is also dropping at about 3% daily, the fastest in almost a month, and is also around the 200 mark in projected days to eradication.

Japan saw 410 new cases, the most since late April, as their current outbreak continues to grow.

The United States continue steadily on the same track to larger numbers at the same rate as they have for the last two weeks. The U.S. has about a third of the active cases in the world now. Another third is made up of Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Peru, and Pakistan. The only other countries that account for at least 1% each of the world's active cases are Bangladesh, the U.K., Colombia, Spain, Saudi Arabia, France, and Argentina. All these countries are on today's phase diagram chart.

Stay safe.

2020-07-09

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-483.0→-483.2), Louisiana (-12→-12), Alabama (2→2), U.S. (6→5), California (10→10), South Africa (22→19), Israel (28→25), Mexico (71→64), India (86→88), Romania (136→120), Indonesia (162→141), Australia (219→189), Toronto (250, no new data), Austria (272→272), Spain (394→313), Japan (388→353), France (493→368), South Korea (-10→954), Norway (2669→2669), New Zealand (3522→3023), Thailand (5717→5724)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Mexico, Romania, Indonesia, Australia, Spain, Japan

Worse: South Africa, Israel

The same: U.S.

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, California, India, Austria, South Korea

No new data: Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (74→66, 3.7%), Denmark (79→74, 7.6%), Turkey (294→198, 23.0%), Malaysia (169→240, 2.7%), Singapore (277→265, 27.5%), Germany (327→382, 8.9%), Poland (726→523, 83.8%), Italy (931→561, 16.1%), Ontario (706→731, 51.3%), Brazil (new→1705, 88.6%), Iran (1228→1718, 76.9%), Sweden (8330→3299, 93.9%), China (new→4693, 0.9%), Canada (7265→5993, 81.7%), U.K. (17483→13086, 81.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (66): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); San Marino (1, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 0.2%); Barbados (14, 1.9%); Belize (14, 57.1%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cambodia (14, 11.4%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Taiwan (14, 1.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (29, 32.7%); Finland (47, 6.3%); Sri Lanka (51, 12.2%); Kazakhstan (59, 45.4%); Nicaragua (71, 66.2%); Qatar (76, 17.2%); Maldives (79, 32.4%); Jordan (88, 61.7%); Benin (90, 63.4%); Suriname (97, 74.3%); Mongolia (106, 27.3%); Morocco (124, 75.4%); Uruguay (124, 24.4%); Bhutan (203, 60.6%); Burma (205, 49.3%); Togo (217, 87.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (288, 83.7%); Mauritania (325, 89.0%); Chile (333, 41.9%); Hungary (345, 47.0%); Central African Republic (360, 90.9%); Belarus (367, 49.2%); South Sudan (367, 49.7%); Guyana (387, 94.3%); Jamaica (409, 41.4%); Estonia (492, 5.9%); Nepal (513, 92.5%); Gabon (514, 82.5%); Sierra Leone (521, 77.8%); Moldova (633, 93.0%); Mali (670, 93.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (1151, 59.0%); Haiti (1155, 81.8%); United Arab Emirates (1728, 61.9%); Pakistan (1959, 86.7%); Georgia (2307, 35.9%); Peru (2367, 90.3%); Eritrea (3073, 77.5%); Saudi Arabia (3624, 96.3%); Bahrain (4171, 83.1%); Yemen (4933, 64.1%); Senegal (7480, 97.9%); Egypt (17986, 99.4%); Russia (250885, 92.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): MP (14, 77.3%); VT (167, 28.8%); NH (176, 40.4%); ME (230, 66.4%); NC (299, 86.6%); AR (501, 90.1%); MA (934, 21.6%); GU (1095, 87.2%); NE (2093, 77.1%); MS (2261, 98.3%); RI (4441, 79.9%); WY (5980, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NL, NT, YT (eradicated); MB (14, 2.1%); NB (14, 1.4%); NU (14, 100.0%); SK (47, 23.0%)

Mexico has seen increasing numbers of new cases daily for four days, and set a record today with 7,280 new cases.

Romania has seen three days of increases, and a rough doubling of new cases to 614.

Indonesia had a record 2,657 new cases today, more than twice what it had two days ago.

Japan had 348 new cases, including a record 224 in Tokyo, a greater number that at any time since April. Health officials were downplaying the seriousness of the situation, saying that there had been increased testing, and that the healthcare system's capacity remained robust.

Australia is having trouble coming back down from triple digits in new cases, with four days in a row ending today at 173.

Canada continues its very slow recovery, which began at the beginning of June, and has seen us come down 18% to 27,743 active cases. Still a long way to go.

Ontario likewise dropped only five active cases to 1,668. Note that the Ontario and Canada numbers come from different sources with different active case calculation. Ontario has 18% of the national total of active cases (40% of the national population), Quebec 78% (23%), Alberta 3% (12%), and B.C. 1% (14%).

Today's chart shows cumulative case counts for all the American states and territories. When I started compiling these statistics, I naively thought that no region that had a government and a healthcare system could ever exceed 1% infection levels of an easily preventable disease. The states on the right side of the chart show how wrong I was.

Stay safe.

2020-07-08

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-422.2→-483.0), Louisiana (-12→-12), South Korea (895→-10), Alabama (7→2), U.S. (6→6), Brazil (11→10), California (13→10), South Africa (21→22), Israel (31→28), Mexico (71→71), India (86→86), Romania (149→136), Indonesia (171→162), Australia (227→219), Austria (272→272), Japan (355→388), Spain (394→394), France (493→493), Norway (1184→2669), New Zealand (3522→3522), Thailand (4569→5717), China (63717→61447)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: South Korea, Alabama, California, Romania, Indonesia, Australia

Worse: Israel

The same: Brazil

Better: Louisiana, U.S., South Africa, Mexico, India, Austria, Japan

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (74, no new data, 4.1%), Denmark (98→79, 7.7%), Malaysia (110→169, 2.8%), Singapore (267→277, 28.6%), Toronto (new→284, 23.1%), Turkey (528→294, 24.8%), Germany (403→327, 9.1%), Ontario (672→706, 52.1%), Poland (567→726, 86.8%), Italy (1745→931, 16.8%), Iran (2837→1228, 76.7%), Canada (8442→7265, 82.0%), Sweden (new→8330, 96.0%), U.K. (10005→17483, 81.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (66): Brunei, Dominica, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (1, 0.0%); San Marino (2, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 0.7%); Bahamas (14, 8.8%); Barbados (14, 1.9%); Belize (14, 57.1%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cambodia (14, 11.4%); Chad (14, 2.8%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Seychelles (14, 100.0%); Taiwan (14, 1.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (37, 36.5%); Sri Lanka (41, 12.1%); Estonia (58, 5.2%); Nicaragua (71, 66.2%); Qatar (72, 19.2%); Suriname (89, 74.3%); Uruguay (98, 23.4%); Jordan (102, 64.4%); Maldives (105, 33.1%); Mongolia (115, 29.1%); Benin (119, 68.1%); Ethiopia (143, 68.2%); Congo (Brazzaville) (156, 82.9%); Togo (204, 88.5%); Hungary (255, 47.4%); Jamaica (316, 39.9%); Central African Republic (337, 90.8%); South Sudan (340, 50.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (363, 87.9%); Gabon (381, 80.6%); Bhutan (399, 60.6%); Belarus (484, 52.6%); Mauritania (491, 92.9%); Chile (506, 44.6%); Moldova (511, 92.9%); Bahrain (512, 81.2%); Ghana (682, 74.0%); Nepal (748, 94.9%); Morocco (800, 87.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (852, 59.7%); Yemen (869, 61.7%); Georgia (1134, 35.2%); Sudan (1242, 81.3%); Haiti (1496, 82.6%); Tajikistan (2162, 68.4%); Peru (2249, 90.6%); Pakistan (2899, 87.7%); Eritrea (3098, 78.1%); Afghanistan (3197, 80.6%); United Arab Emirates (3844, 62.6%); Russia (37087, 93.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): MP (14, 77.3%); VT (119, 26.9%); MN (199, 35.8%); NC (230, 78.9%); NH (262, 42.6%); AR (305, 85.9%); ME (316, 69.2%); GU (540, 85.5%); MS (601, 91.7%); MA (643, 20.9%); NE (1018, 75.3%); RI (4272, 79.9%); SD (5168, 62.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NL, NT, YT (eradicated); BC (14, 22.6%); MB (14, 3.1%); NB (14, 1.4%); NU (14, 100.0%); SK (44, 22.5%)

Toronto's thrice weekly numbers were released today, and show a continued slow decline in active cases, 39 over two days to 690. That takes us back to the level we are at on April 4th, which seems unimaginably long ago, in a good way.

No new cases in our neighbourhood in the last two days.

I took my dad to a specialist medical appointment today. It involved sitting in a waiting room with a few other patients for three hours. We were all masked, and no one was coughing, or even talking much, so I wasn't as stressed out as I could have been, even though it was directly across the street from the nursing home where half the patients are sick.

Ontario had only 118 new cases, and active cases dropped a huge 93 points to 1,673 on the strength of 202 recoveries.

I read an article in the Japanese press about how SARS-CoV-2 is causing an uptick in cases of a neurological disorder known as ADEM. I have a friend who recovered from ADEM once, and if anyone can offer a scientific reason why I should not be concerned on my friend's behalf now, I would appreciate hearing about it.

Today's chart shows the active cases in the United States, stacked as in the past firstly by whether they have increased or decreased in the past week, and secondly by how many there are. The ones that are decreasing are the last nine in the legend, starting with Ohio, Arkansas, Nebraska. The ones that are still worsening are at the top of the legend and the bottom of the stack, starting with California, Florida, New York, Texas, and Arizona.

Stay safe.

2020-07-07

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-359.4→-359.4), Louisiana (-12→-12), Alabama (7→7), U.S. (9→8), California (14→15), South Africa (21→21), Israel (31→31), Mexico (63→63), India (91→87), Romania (131→131), Indonesia (156→153), Australia (207→209), Austria (288→283), Spain (349→349), Japan (533→357), France (493→493), South Korea (825→819), Norway (1182→1182), Thailand (6210→4025)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: India, Austria, Japan

Worse: Indonesia

The same: U.S.

Better: New York, Louisiana, Alabama, California, South Africa, Israel, Mexico, Romania, Australia, Spain

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (25→23, 4.4%), Malaysia (25→26, 2.9%), Denmark (101→117, 10.7%), Singapore (195→209, 31.4%), Germany (367→258, 9.9%), New Zealand (71→321, 2.3%), Ontario (699→358, 53.9%), Toronto (737→377, 24.5%), Turkey (520→502, 28.4%), Italy (401→659, 17.3%), Poland (816→799, 90.4%), Brazil (484→928, 91.5%), Sweden (2374→1242, 95.5%), Iran (1938→2145, 78.9%), U.K. (1792→2403, 81.4%), Canada (2491→3229, 82.3%), China (4799→7080, 0.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Brunei, Dominica, Fiji, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (4, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (5, 0.0%); Cameroon (14, 52.1%); Liechtenstein (14, 1.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Seychelles (14, 100.0%); Suriname (14, 97.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Bahamas (21, 8.8%); Andorra (25, 0.7%); Estonia (36, 6.1%); Sri Lanka (39, 18.8%); Comoros (42, 58.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (42, 7.7%); Vietnam (47, 9.5%); Mongolia (74, 31.8%); Niger (76, 10.0%); Qatar (77, 28.1%); Finland (91, 10.2%); Latvia (103, 21.7%); Uganda (112, 12.3%); Cambodia (126, 11.4%); Chad (126, 2.5%); Ethiopia (151, 77.0%); Belarus (160, 54.9%); Georgia (222, 36.2%); Benin (248, 86.3%); South Sudan (278, 53.6%); Lithuania (305, 28.3%); Chile (310, 47.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (318, 60.2%); Hungary (322, 51.1%); Lebanon (332, 92.0%); Burma (338, 54.1%); Bahrain (345, 83.8%); Antigua and Barbuda (381, 95.5%); Eritrea (525, 78.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (613, 94.4%); Tunisia (633, 16.7%); Djibouti (725, 4.2%); Somalia (765, 77.6%); Tajikistan (943, 68.5%); Sudan (995, 81.3%); Pakistan (1008, 88.9%); Afghanistan (1078, 81.1%); Haiti (1095, 84.3%); Togo (1135, 97.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (1224, 95.8%); Russia (1399, 92.6%); Sierra Leone (1427, 81.9%); Cyprus (1642, 28.9%); Jordan (1969, 80.7%); Netherlands (2215, 67.9%); Peru (2497, 92.1%); United Arab Emirates (4000, 63.4%); Gabon (8180, 88.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (7): OH (97, 65.5%); NH (428, 47.7%); VT (641, 33.1%); CT (5065, 74.6%); KY (7091, 96.5%); DC (8105, 83.6%); PR (8438, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NL, NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 1.4%); NU (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 25.0%); SK (92, 34.0%); MB (118, 8.3%); QC (16261, 73.7%)

India is continue to worsen, new cases rising 3.5% daily, with six consecutive daily increases recently. Hard to say what could slow it down.

Japan's daily new cases are still small, but have increased steadily daily from 86 to 253 in a week. It's a good thing they've postponed the Olympics for a year.

One more day until masks are required in all indoor spaces with public access in Toronto, and people appear to be getting used to the idea. Only 43 new cases in Toronto today, which is more than yesterday's 20, but still the second lowest count in a week. Active cases are down by 31 to 733, and no new cases in our neighbourhood, not even in the nursing home.

The City of Toronto's COVID-19 scoreboard says that we are doing well at meeting our goals for things like contact tracing, PPE stockpiling, and ICU and ventilator (but not acute care) occupancy. We are however apparently doing terribly at getting tests turned around on time. If you are thinking of getting tested, note that you have a 23% chance of getting results in 24 hours, and a 55% in 48 hours; targets for those are 60% and 80%.

I read in the news today that Melbourne has been having some trouble keeping travellers quarantined, and that a hotel-centred outbreak is responsible for Australia's numbers rising, and interstate travel bans being put in place. Australia's active case count has more than doubled in two weeks to 940, but that's for the whole country and barely more than what we have in our city alone.

The news is also full of reports that Spain is having to repeatedly implement regional lockdowns to shut down, due to lack of compliance with reopening regulations. Spain's overall active case count is increasing very slowly at 0.5% from about 66,000, but there is significant regional variation.

Today's chart plots active cases vs. their daily change for Australia, Canada, Spain and the United States, illustrating four nations on very different trajectories.

Stay safe.

2020-07-06

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-359.4→-359.4), Louisiana (-12→-12), Alabama (7→7), U.S. (9→8), California (14→15), South Africa (21→21), Israel (31→31), Mexico (63→63), India (91→87), Romania (131→131), Indonesia (156→153), Australia (207→209), Austria (288→283), Spain (349→349), Japan (533→357), France (493→493), South Korea (825→819), Norway (1182→1182), Thailand (6210→4025)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: India, Austria, Japan

Worse: Indonesia

The same: U.S.

Better: New York, Louisiana, Alabama, California, South Africa, Israel, Mexico, Romania, Australia, Spain

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (25→23, 4.4%), Malaysia (25→26, 2.9%), Denmark (101→117, 10.7%), Singapore (195→209, 31.4%), Germany (367→258, 9.9%), New Zealand (71→321, 2.3%), Ontario (699→358, 53.9%), Toronto (737→377, 24.5%), Turkey (520→502, 28.4%), Italy (401→659, 17.3%), Poland (816→799, 90.4%), Brazil (484→928, 91.5%), Sweden (2374→1242, 95.5%), Iran (1938→2145, 78.9%), U.K. (1792→2403, 81.4%), Canada (2491→3229, 82.3%), China (4799→7080, 0.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Brunei, Dominica, Fiji, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (4, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (5, 0.0%); Cameroon (14, 52.1%); Liechtenstein (14, 1.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Seychelles (14, 100.0%); Suriname (14, 97.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Bahamas (21, 8.8%); Andorra (25, 0.7%); Estonia (36, 6.1%); Sri Lanka (39, 18.8%); Comoros (42, 58.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (42, 7.7%); Vietnam (47, 9.5%); Mongolia (74, 31.8%); Niger (76, 10.0%); Qatar (77, 28.1%); Finland (91, 10.2%); Latvia (103, 21.7%); Uganda (112, 12.3%); Cambodia (126, 11.4%); Chad (126, 2.5%); Ethiopia (151, 77.0%); Belarus (160, 54.9%); Georgia (222, 36.2%); Benin (248, 86.3%); South Sudan (278, 53.6%); Lithuania (305, 28.3%); Chile (310, 47.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (318, 60.2%); Hungary (322, 51.1%); Lebanon (332, 92.0%); Burma (338, 54.1%); Bahrain (345, 83.8%); Antigua and Barbuda (381, 95.5%); Eritrea (525, 78.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (613, 94.4%); Tunisia (633, 16.7%); Djibouti (725, 4.2%); Somalia (765, 77.6%); Tajikistan (943, 68.5%); Sudan (995, 81.3%); Pakistan (1008, 88.9%); Afghanistan (1078, 81.1%); Haiti (1095, 84.3%); Togo (1135, 97.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (1224, 95.8%); Russia (1399, 92.6%); Sierra Leone (1427, 81.9%); Cyprus (1642, 28.9%); Jordan (1969, 80.7%); Netherlands (2215, 67.9%); Peru (2497, 92.1%); United Arab Emirates (4000, 63.4%); Gabon (8180, 88.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (7): OH (97, 65.5%); NH (428, 47.7%); VT (641, 33.1%); CT (5065, 74.6%); KY (7091, 96.5%); DC (8105, 83.6%); PR (8438, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NL, NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 1.4%); NU (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 25.0%); SK (92, 34.0%); MB (118, 8.3%); QC (16261, 73.7%)

India is continue to worsen, new cases rising 3.5% daily, with six consecutive daily increases recently. Hard to say what could slow it down.

Japan's daily new cases are still small, but have increased steadily daily from 86 to 253 in a week. It's a good thing they've postponed the Olympics for a year.

One more day until masks are required in all indoor spaces with public access in Toronto, and people appear to be getting used to the idea. Only 43 new cases in Toronto today, which is more than yesterday's 20, but still the second lowest count in a week. Active cases are down by 31 to 733, and no new cases in our neighbourhood, not even in the nursing home.

The City of Toronto's COVID-19 scoreboard says that we are doing well at meeting our goals for things like contact tracing, PPE stockpiling, and ICU and ventilator (but not acute care) occupancy. We are however apparently doing terribly at getting tests turned around on time. If you are thinking of getting tested, note that you have a 23% chance of getting results in 24 hours, and a 55% in 48 hours; targets for those are 60% and 80%.

I read in the news today that Melbourne has been having some trouble keeping travellers quarantined, and that a hotel-centred outbreak is responsible for Australia's numbers rising, and interstate travel bans being put in place. Australia's active case count has more than doubled in two weeks to 940, but that's for the whole country and barely more than what we have in our city alone.

The news is also full of reports that Spain is having to repeatedly implement regional lockdowns to shut down, due to lack of compliance with reopening regulations. Spain's overall active case count is increasing very slowly at 0.5% from about 66,000, but there is significant regional variation.

Today's chart plots active cases vs. their daily change for Australia, Canada, Spain and the United States, illustrating four nations on very different trajectories.

Stay safe.

2020-07-05

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-359.4→-359.4), Louisiana (-12→-12), Alabama (7→7), U.S. (9→8), California (14→15), South Africa (21→21), Israel (31→31), Mexico (63→63), India (91→87), Romania (131→131), Indonesia (156→153), Australia (207→209), Austria (288→283), Spain (349→349), Japan (533→357), France (493→493), South Korea (825→819), Norway (1182→1182), Thailand (6210→4025)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: India, Austria, Japan

Worse: Indonesia

The same: U.S.

Better: New York, Louisiana, Alabama, California, South Africa, Israel, Mexico, Romania, Australia, Spain

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (25→23, 4.4%), Malaysia (25→26, 2.9%), Denmark (101→117, 10.7%), Singapore (195→209, 31.4%), Germany (367→258, 9.9%), New Zealand (71→321, 2.3%), Ontario (699→358, 53.9%), Toronto (737→377, 24.5%), Turkey (520→502, 28.4%), Italy (401→659, 17.3%), Poland (816→799, 90.4%), Brazil (484→928, 91.5%), Sweden (2374→1242, 95.5%), Iran (1938→2145, 78.9%), U.K. (1792→2403, 81.4%), Canada (2491→3229, 82.3%), China (4799→7080, 0.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Brunei, Dominica, Fiji, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (4, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (5, 0.0%); Cameroon (14, 52.1%); Liechtenstein (14, 1.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Seychelles (14, 100.0%); Suriname (14, 97.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Bahamas (21, 8.8%); Andorra (25, 0.7%); Estonia (36, 6.1%); Sri Lanka (39, 18.8%); Comoros (42, 58.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (42, 7.7%); Vietnam (47, 9.5%); Mongolia (74, 31.8%); Niger (76, 10.0%); Qatar (77, 28.1%); Finland (91, 10.2%); Latvia (103, 21.7%); Uganda (112, 12.3%); Cambodia (126, 11.4%); Chad (126, 2.5%); Ethiopia (151, 77.0%); Belarus (160, 54.9%); Georgia (222, 36.2%); Benin (248, 86.3%); South Sudan (278, 53.6%); Lithuania (305, 28.3%); Chile (310, 47.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (318, 60.2%); Hungary (322, 51.1%); Lebanon (332, 92.0%); Burma (338, 54.1%); Bahrain (345, 83.8%); Antigua and Barbuda (381, 95.5%); Eritrea (525, 78.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (613, 94.4%); Tunisia (633, 16.7%); Djibouti (725, 4.2%); Somalia (765, 77.6%); Tajikistan (943, 68.5%); Sudan (995, 81.3%); Pakistan (1008, 88.9%); Afghanistan (1078, 81.1%); Haiti (1095, 84.3%); Togo (1135, 97.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (1224, 95.8%); Russia (1399, 92.6%); Sierra Leone (1427, 81.9%); Cyprus (1642, 28.9%); Jordan (1969, 80.7%); Netherlands (2215, 67.9%); Peru (2497, 92.1%); United Arab Emirates (4000, 63.4%); Gabon (8180, 88.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (7): OH (97, 65.5%); NH (428, 47.7%); VT (641, 33.1%); CT (5065, 74.6%); KY (7091, 96.5%); DC (8105, 83.6%); PR (8438, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NL, NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 1.4%); NU (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 25.0%); SK (92, 34.0%); MB (118, 8.3%); QC (16261, 73.7%)

India is continue to worsen, new cases rising 3.5% daily, with six consecutive daily increases recently. Hard to say what could slow it down.

Japan's daily new cases are still small, but have increased steadily daily from 86 to 253 in a week. It's a good thing they've postponed the Olympics for a year.

One more day until masks are required in all indoor spaces with public access in Toronto, and people appear to be getting used to the idea. Only 43 new cases in Toronto today, which is more than yesterday's 20, but still the second lowest count in a week. Active cases are down by 31 to 733, and no new cases in our neighbourhood, not even in the nursing home.

The City of Toronto's COVID-19 scoreboard says that we are doing well at meeting our goals for things like contact tracing, PPE stockpiling, and ICU and ventilator (but not acute care) occupancy. We are however apparently doing terribly at getting tests turned around on time. If you are thinking of getting tested, note that you have a 23% chance of getting results in 24 hours, and a 55% in 48 hours; targets for those are 60% and 80%.

I read in the news today that Melbourne has been having some trouble keeping travellers quarantined, and that a hotel-centred outbreak is responsible for Australia's numbers rising, and interstate travel bans being put in place. Australia's active case count has more than doubled in two weeks to 940, but that's for the whole country and barely more than what we have in our city alone.

The news is also full of reports that Spain is having to repeatedly implement regional lockdowns to shut down, due to lack of compliance with reopening regulations. Spain's overall active case count is increasing very slowly at 0.5% from about 66,000, but there is significant regional variation.

Today's chart plots active cases vs. their daily change for Australia, Canada, Spain and the United States, illustrating four nations on very different trajectories.

Stay safe.

2020-07-04

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-463.6→-359.4), Louisiana (-12→-12), Alabama (7→7), U.S. (11→9), California (16→14), South Africa (23→21), Israel (42→31), Mexico (63→63), India (94→91), Romania (146→131), Indonesia (157→156), Australia (341→207), Austria (805→288), Spain (349→349), France (493→493), Japan (533→533), Norway (1182→1182)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: New York, U.S., Israel, Romania, Australia, Austria

Worse: California, South Africa, India

The same: Indonesia

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, Mexico, Spain

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (25→25, 3.1%), Malta (20→25, 4.8%), New Zealand (71, no new data, 1.9%), Denmark (110→101, 10.7%), Singapore (184→195, 32.6%), Germany (597→367, 10.3%), Italy (404→401, 17.6%), Brazil (443→484, 86.3%), Turkey (634→520, 28.5%), Thailand (new→538, 3.9%), South Korea (247→642, 13.6%), Ontario (1031→699, 54.8%), Toronto (new→737, 25.6%), Poland (1119→816, 91.7%), U.K. (1871→1792, 81.2%), Iran (1035→1938, 79.5%), Sweden (new→2374, 96.8%), Canada (1465→2491, 82.5%), China (new→4799, 0.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (74): Brunei, Dominica, Fiji, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (5, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (6, 0.0%); Cameroon (14, 52.1%); Chad (14, 2.8%); Liechtenstein (14, 1.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 23.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Uganda (14, 12.9%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Bahamas (21, 8.8%); Andorra (25, 0.7%); Comoros (36, 58.7%); Taiwan (37, 1.5%); Djibouti (41, 4.2%); Sri Lanka (41, 20.6%); Estonia (42, 7.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (42, 7.7%); Latvia (43, 22.2%); Vietnam (47, 9.5%); Niger (61, 10.0%); Finland (87, 9.9%); Mongolia (88, 33.6%); Qatar (99, 32.3%); Cambodia (126, 11.4%); Burma (145, 50.9%); Belarus (166, 57.1%); Georgia (187, 35.9%); Benin (197, 86.3%); South Sudan (198, 54.8%); Chile (247, 48.6%); Ethiopia (251, 86.3%); Tunisia (263, 16.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (288, 61.4%); Lithuania (329, 28.7%); Lebanon (380, 89.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (381, 95.5%); Zimbabwe (383, 87.3%); Yemen (437, 63.6%); Eswatini (453, 92.7%); Sudan (493, 83.6%); Jordan (506, 81.4%); Bhutan (556, 63.0%); Hungary (589, 53.1%); Afghanistan (697, 81.6%); Haiti (809, 84.5%); Bahrain (819, 87.3%); Pakistan (1029, 89.2%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1057, 96.7%); Cyprus (1072, 28.3%); Gabon (1121, 88.0%); Sierra Leone (1270, 81.9%); Russia (1391, 93.7%); Burkina Faso (1513, 23.4%); Somalia (1544, 78.4%); Tajikistan (1610, 69.4%); Netherlands (2225, 68.2%); Peru (2251, 92.6%); United Arab Emirates (2307, 63.3%); Eritrea (3124, 78.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (4079, 97.4%); Armenia (15224, 99.7%); Portugal (106943, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): OH (98, 63.5%); VT (282, 32.6%); NH (372, 47.7%); PR (1663, 96.8%); NE (3847, 78.0%); CT (7059, 74.7%); DC (22863, 83.4%); OK (38480, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NL, NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 1.4%); NU (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); SK (92, 34.0%); MB (118, 8.3%); QC (8714, 73.6%)

I'm posting a little earlier than usual, in the hopes of getting a better night's sleep tonight. I apologize for the resulting "no new data" indications above.

Austria had some sort of data backlog; their huge downward jump spanned several days, so while they are doing worse now than they were a week ago, and just had two consecutive days with 100+ new cases for the first time in ten weeks, it has come on a little gradually.

Prince Edward Island had its first three new cases since April, one related to a recently returned traveller, and the other two related to the first. Three new cases should be easy to contain.

The United Kingdom's cumulative count dropped by about 10% a couple of days ago; the official reason was the discovery that that many people had been double-counted in two different testing systems. That's why it shows a negative percentage in today's chart showing cumulative count growth rates.

I made two enhancements to my webpage where some of you are reading this.

Google suddenly stopped letting websites fetch data directly from Google Sheets about a week ago, throwing a CORS violation by omitting an Access-Control-Allow-Origin header that presumably used to be there. I'd complain, but Google Sheets are free for noncommercial use like this, and you get what you pay for. I'm just glad I don't use them for anything important.

I also changed the way that I'm handling hiding and showing of plot points and lines. They used to always be in the document, so that they could quickly be hidden/shown in response to user interactions, but that got to be slow in some browsers when the number of SVG objects got up into the tens of thousands. So now I discard hidden elements, and rerender them on request. Much snappier.

Toronto had a remarkably low 20 new cases today, dropping us 45 active cases to 764, our first post-peak low in a week.

Ontario dropped 58 active cases to 1,886 today on the strength of only 121 new cases compared to the recently typical 150.

Stay safe.

2020-07-03

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-463.6→-463.6), Louisiana (-11→-12), Alabama (9→7), U.S. (13→11), California (16→16), South Africa (26→23), Sweden (34→33), Israel (42→42), Mexico (71→63), India (93→94), Romania (146→146), Toronto (180→150), Indonesia (161→157), Australia (341→341), Spain (455→349), France (493→493), Japan (533→533), Austria (805→805), Norway (1302→1182), Thailand (4014→6210), China (57328→122861)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Mexico, Toronto, Indonesia, Spain

Worse: U.S., South Africa

The same: Sweden

Better: Louisiana, California, Israel, India, Romania, Australia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (25→20, 4.8%), Malaysia (87→25, 3.3%), New Zealand (136→71, 1.9%), Denmark (214→110, 11.5%), Singapore (211→184, 33.8%), South Korea (231→247, 13.5%), Italy (419→404, 17.8%), Brazil (new→443, 83.7%), Germany (1750→597, 10.4%), Turkey (819→634, 28.8%), Ontario (new→1031, 55.7%), Iran (895→1035, 79.3%), Poland (1061→1119, 93.4%), Canada (1939→1465, 82.7%), U.K. (10796→1871, 81.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Brunei, Dominica, Fiji, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Lucia (5, 0.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (6, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (7, 0.0%); Burma (14, 60.6%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cameroon (14, 52.1%); Iceland (14, 1.1%); Liechtenstein (14, 1.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Taiwan (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Bahamas (21, 8.8%); Djibouti (23, 4.0%); Andorra (25, 0.7%); Vietnam (27, 9.5%); Chad (40, 2.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (42, 7.7%); Sri Lanka (52, 24.1%); Latvia (54, 24.3%); Niger (81, 10.6%); Estonia (86, 9.0%); Finland (102, 9.9%); Uganda (113, 11.5%); Qatar (120, 36.3%); Cambodia (126, 11.4%); Georgia (146, 35.9%); Burkina Faso (177, 21.2%); Mongolia (189, 37.3%); Gabon (231, 86.5%); Eritrea (233, 78.6%); Lithuania (234, 28.9%); Belarus (240, 61.1%); Comoros (263, 92.3%); South Sudan (277, 57.1%); Chile (285, 49.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (309, 61.9%); Benin (346, 91.1%); Ethiopia (350, 88.9%); Haiti (359, 81.8%); Jordan (431, 80.7%); Lebanon (438, 92.5%); Sudan (462, 86.8%); Afghanistan (467, 81.3%); Zimbabwe (691, 88.7%); United Arab Emirates (733, 62.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (775, 97.7%); Liberia (937, 97.2%); Somalia (1069, 78.4%); Central African Republic (1174, 94.2%); Tajikistan (1272, 69.4%); Hungary (1435, 54.8%); Tunisia (1855, 16.6%); Peru (2199, 92.9%); Netherlands (2601, 68.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (2823, 98.7%); Russia (3085, 94.7%); Yemen (3405, 66.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (6777, 97.4%); Guinea (7831, 60.8%); Mozambique (45448, 97.1%); Pakistan (88582, 93.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): IA (58, 52.5%); OH (95, 61.4%); NE (1193, 77.6%); NH (1505, 50.6%); OK (2136, 95.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NL, NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NS (14, 0.6%); SK (98, 34.0%); MB (229, 8.3%); QC (7551, 73.6%)

There were a shocking 13 more cases in my neighbourhood of Playter Estates-Danforth, bringing us to a total of 52. All new cases continue to be at a private Christian long-term care facility on Pape Avenue called Nisbet Lodge, where according to the city, 45 of 103 residents have now tested positive, and according to the nursing home, "43 positive and 6 deaths". The remaining 7 cases in the neighbourhood have been around for long enough that I'm pretty sure that they've been marked as recovered.

In the city of Toronto overall, we saw a second daily marginal increase in active case numbers, +15 to 809. The ratio of new cases to known active ones is 10%. If active cases are being marked recovered after 14 days, each active case can be responsible for 1.4 new cases, which is on the wrong side of 1.0 for bringing the pandemic under control.

I went to the St. Lawrence Market today to go grocery shopping. Security was heightened, and there was a large sign explaining that starting on Tuesday, no one would be allowed into the building unless their face was covered. The same will be true in almost all enclosed spaces to which the public has access (such as stores). At least half the pedestrians in the neighbourhood were wearing masks, which was a significant uptick from last week. Most shoppers in the market were wearing masks.

In Ontario, over the last two days there were about twice as many new cases as recoveries, bringing us up from 1,811 to 1,944 active cases. Media reports indicate that outside of the Toronto area, the hotspots are in migrant foreign farmworkers in the Windsor-Essex and Haldimand-Norfolk regions. Premier Doug Ford took the unusual step of publicly urging farmworkers to take advantage of their free access to our healthcare system, although I understand that they are discouraged from doing so out of fear that their employers will terminate their contracts if they are not fit for work.

Canada overall is drifting slowly downward in active case count by 1% a day, driven by gradual decline at about that rate in Quebec, where most of the cases are.

Of the other countries to which I am paying the closest attention, the ones that worry me the most are South Africa and the United States, both of which have seen their daily new case numbers double in about ten days. Most other countries on the list are either stable or improving (or like Japan, experiencing an outbreak that is still small in scale).

Today's chart plots the history of these countries and a few others: Brazil, Canada, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Africa, United States.

Stay safe.

2020-07-02

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-516.7→-463.6), Louisiana (-11→-11), Alabama (10→9), U.S. (14→13), Brazil (14→14), California (22→16), South Africa (28→26), Sweden (39→34), Israel (42→42), India (90→93), Romania (163→146), Indonesia (172→161), Toronto (186→180), Ontario (268→283), Australia (383→341), Spain (455→455), France (265→493), Japan (648→533), Austria (805→805), Norway (1249→1302), Thailand (6199→4014), China (46478→57328)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Sweden, Romania, Indonesia, Toronto, Australia

Worse: South Africa

The same: Alabama, U.S.

Better: Louisiana, Brazil, Israel, India, Ontario

Much better: France

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (46→25, 5.5%), Malaysia (152→87, 5.5%), New Zealand (new→136, 1.9%), Singapore (295→211, 35.4%), Denmark (305→214, 12.9%), South Korea (306→231, 13.7%), Italy (331→419, 18.0%), Turkey (1605→819, 29.3%), Iran (816→895, 79.6%), Poland (1516→1061, 93.9%), Mexico (532→1129, 95.9%), Germany (new→1750, 10.7%), Canada (2281→1939, 83.1%), U.K. (7558→10796, 84.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Brunei, Dominica, Fiji, Grenada, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Liechtenstein, Saint Lucia (6, 0.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (7, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (8, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 0.9%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cameroon (14, 52.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 2.0%); Monaco (14, 6.5%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Taiwan (14, 0.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Chad (17, 1.8%); Bahamas (21, 8.8%); Djibouti (24, 4.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (42, 7.7%); Uganda (43, 11.7%); Vietnam (53, 12.0%); Cambodia (66, 11.4%); Cuba (69, 5.2%); Eritrea (78, 75.9%); Latvia (81, 27.3%); Estonia (92, 9.5%); Finland (92, 9.7%); Equatorial Guinea (96, 73.7%); Sri Lanka (98, 31.2%); Qatar (174, 41.9%); Niger (221, 12.7%); Comoros (263, 92.3%); Jordan (267, 80.7%); Zambia (288, 40.4%); Belarus (301, 65.2%); Sudan (302, 86.8%); Gabon (309, 89.6%); Tunisia (309, 16.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (316, 62.4%); Lithuania (340, 29.6%); Chile (409, 52.2%); Yemen (455, 63.4%); Benin (517, 93.4%); Afghanistan (567, 83.5%); Kuwait (604, 56.0%); Ethiopia (642, 93.5%); Somalia (663, 78.2%); Georgia (682, 40.9%); Haiti (683, 85.5%); United Arab Emirates (698, 62.8%); Mongolia (775, 39.1%); Pakistan (827, 93.6%); Cyprus (847, 29.5%); Central African Republic (947, 93.6%); Hungary (1175, 54.7%); Mozambique (1187, 95.5%); Tajikistan (1409, 70.0%); Guinea (1504, 60.8%); South Sudan (1743, 58.2%); Peru (2019, 93.4%); Netherlands (2479, 68.7%); Russia (3423, 94.5%); Maldives (3774, 41.9%); Mali (4292, 94.8%); Bahrain (5887, 93.8%); Lebanon (7414, 94.7%); Greece (13984, 80.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (152448, 98.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): MP (14, 68.2%); IA (61, 53.8%); OH (70, 52.3%); WV (213, 74.2%); NC (358, 88.8%); NE (867, 78.8%); OK (949, 94.2%); SD (1018, 58.4%); NH (2586, 50.6%); IN (5796, 60.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NL, NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 4.1%); NS (14, 0.6%); SK (77, 38.3%)

Despite improving its rate of contagion, India overtook Russia to climb to third place in the world rankings of active cases. In first place by a wide margin, with over a million, is the United States. In a solid second place, with half as many, is Brazil. Half again gets you to India and Brazil; and half of that (or about 100K) are Peru, Pakistan and the United Kingdom. If you scale the numbers per capita, the U.S. slips to sixth place behind Qatar, Panama, Armenia, the Holy See, and Oman; Peru is behind Bahrain in eighth, and Brazil in tenth behind Sweden.

Ontario did much better on active cases today, on the strength of an unusually large number (386, the most in two and a half weeks), bring us down 245 to 1,807 cases, a post-peak low.

Toronto pretty much broke even on active cases again today, but this time in the wrong direction, picking up two new net cases after 77 new cases, 71 recoveries and 4 deaths. I think things will get better once the indoor mask by-law takes effect on Tuesday, and maybe just knowing it's on the way may help motivate better behaviour in the interim.

No unusual pandemic activity in Toronto today, and no new cases in our neighbourhood.

I've made an appointment to see my aunts at their nursing home next week, as it has been declared COVID-19 free after its second outbreak. As I have not had a COVID-19 test, and don't have time to get the results before the appointment, it will be a "window visit" appointment. I look forward to seeing what that is.

Tomorrow, I'll be spending at least the morning and likely the afternoon at Mount Sinai Hospital with my dad, who may be having a minor surgical procedure. I look forward to seeing what it's like to be in a hospital during a pandemic too.

Today's graphic shows the countries whose active case counts have increased over the past week, and those where they have decreased, in two separate charts.

Stay safe.

2020-07-01

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-439.7→-516.7), Louisiana (-15→-11), Alabama (10→10), Brazil (16→14), U.S. (15→14), California (22→22), South Africa (28→28), Sweden (47→39), Israel (49→42), India (88→90), Romania (162→163), Indonesia (169→172), Toronto (175→186), France (265→265), Ontario (268→268), Australia (445→383), Spain (455→455), Japan (733→648), Austria (805→805), Germany (820→809), Norway (1249→1249), New Zealand (2337→2630), China (33715→46478)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Louisiana, Sweden, Israel

Worse: Brazil

The same: U.S.

Better: Alabama, California, South Africa, India, Romania, Indonesia, Toronto, France, Ontario

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (40→46, 7.8%), Malaysia (177→152, 6.3%), Thailand (285→164, 3.9%), Singapore (481→295, 37.4%), Denmark (396→305, 13.4%), South Korea (193→306, 13.9%), Italy (400→331, 18.4%), Mexico (491→532, 92.2%), Iran (845→816, 80.5%), Poland (3085→1516, 95.0%), Turkey (1396→1605, 30.9%), Canada (2409→2281, 83.5%), U.K. (56972→7558, 84.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (69): Brunei, Fiji, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Dominica, Grenada (1, 0.0%); Liechtenstein, Saint Lucia (7, 0.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (8, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (9, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 0.9%); Belize (14, 25.4%); Cameroon (14, 52.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 2.0%); Mongolia (14, 40.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 46.2%); Seychelles (14, 100.0%); Taiwan (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Bahamas (25, 13.2%); Djibouti (25, 4.4%); Cuba (46, 4.8%); Chad (74, 2.8%); Estonia (75, 10.3%); Latvia (79, 26.6%); Equatorial Guinea (96, 73.7%); Vietnam (106, 12.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (112, 73.9%); Sri Lanka (155, 34.3%); Niger (168, 12.7%); Zambia (178, 38.4%); Sudan (206, 84.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (243, 64.9%); Jordan (260, 81.7%); Comoros (263, 92.3%); Gabon (273, 88.4%); Yemen (274, 61.7%); Qatar (290, 46.7%); Belarus (348, 70.6%); Georgia (445, 39.9%); Haiti (452, 86.9%); Somalia (461, 80.7%); Mozambique (477, 94.5%); Afghanistan (491, 84.2%); Kuwait (611, 55.7%); Chile (625, 55.0%); Pakistan (699, 93.3%); Uganda (702, 14.6%); Guinea (731, 61.2%); Bahrain (795, 93.2%); Ethiopia (965, 96.4%); United Arab Emirates (1075, 64.0%); Lithuania (1106, 30.7%); Cyprus (1116, 29.3%); Zimbabwe (1281, 98.0%); South Sudan (1357, 59.4%); Eritrea (1400, 81.3%); Burma (1417, 57.4%); Peru (1909, 93.9%); Tajikistan (1942, 70.8%); Maldives (2749, 40.8%); Netherlands (2775, 69.2%); Hungary (3295, 56.0%); Russia (5925, 96.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): MP (14, 68.2%); IA (57, 50.2%); WV (233, 71.0%); NC (328, 82.0%); NE (503, 77.9%); VT (931, 34.3%); SD (1326, 57.4%); RI (22914, 79.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NL, NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 4.1%); NS (14, 0.4%); SK (131, 42.1%); BC (508, 21.2%)

Happy Canada Day!

The person who looks after posting the daily COVID-19 numbers at Ontario.CA appears to have today off, so there's no news to report about our province.

No unusual outbreaks in Toronto today, and no new cases in our neighbourhood. The active case numbers dropped from 795 to 792, bringing them back to what was being reported four days ago before the historical data was all corrected and replaced.

The United States is down to a recent low of 7 states and 1 territory whose active case numbers are still trending downward, after sitting at 11 for three days.

Today's chart shows how each American state and territory is doing. The ones that are still improving are on the bottom half of the chart. The ones that are on the right side have more than 1 person in 1,000 listed as actively infected. (Given the case fatality rate of 5%, it's probably more like 1 person in 200 who is currently infectious.)

Stay safe.

2020-06-30

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-387.0→-439.7), Louisiana (-8→-12), Alabama (12→14), U.S. (16→15), Brazil (14→16), California (24→24), South Africa (27→29), Israel (62→58), Mexico (74→84), India (87→87), Romania (137→158), Indonesia (162→168), Ontario (315→285), Spain (370→370), Australia (639→507), Germany (620→677), Japan (846→785), Austria (805→805), Norway (978→859), New Zealand (2337→2337), China (27286→24917)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Ontario

The same: U.S.

Better: California, India, Indonesia

Much better: Louisiana, Alabama, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Romania

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (42→63, 9.2%), Thailand (48→95, 3.5%), Malaysia (57→106, 7.5%), South Korea (143→137, 15.2%), Italy (277→372, 19.7%), Denmark (7926→600, 14.7%), Singapore (662→615, 41.2%), Iran (736→834, 82.7%), Turkey (1346→1102, 30.7%), Toronto (248→1443, 27.5%), Sweden (new→1482, 94.8%), France (new→3599, 54.6%), Poland (new→6269, 96.8%), Canada (4834→14438, 85.2%), U.K. (new→346988, 84.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Fiji, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (1, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (3, 0.0%); Liechtenstein, Saint Lucia (9, 0.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (10, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (11, 0.0%); Belize (14, 25.4%); Cameroon (14, 52.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 94.1%); Kosovo (14, 100.0%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 2.0%); Nicaragua, Seychelles (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Bahamas (19, 13.2%); Andorra (21, 0.9%); Cuba (21, 5.3%); Chad (44, 3.0%); Djibouti (51, 10.2%); Uganda (64, 13.6%); Estonia (78, 11.3%); Botswana (104, 79.7%); Guinea (138, 61.0%); Latvia (158, 35.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (165, 66.9%); Sri Lanka (166, 38.5%); Belarus (217, 72.4%); Jordan (236, 85.4%); Zambia (240, 35.7%); Jamaica (242, 39.3%); Qatar (345, 50.6%); Burma (386, 60.6%); Mongolia (414, 40.9%); Somalia (443, 80.7%); Niger (455, 13.3%); Bahrain (468, 89.1%); Cyprus (546, 28.5%); Georgia (558, 41.6%); Hungary (610, 55.9%); Zimbabwe (703, 92.1%); Lithuania (732, 32.0%); Afghanistan (803, 88.6%); Pakistan (951, 94.0%); South Sudan (1074, 63.3%); Maldives (1219, 40.5%); Tajikistan (1234, 71.2%); Sudan (1262, 93.8%); United Arab Emirates (1293, 65.7%); Sierra Leone (1919, 82.7%); Peru (2096, 95.0%); Netherlands (3127, 69.7%); Russia (3648, 96.3%); Chile (4661, 58.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): MP (14, 68.2%); VI (14, 13.7%); WV (140, 74.3%); NC (314, 69.5%); NE (373, 80.1%); MI (894, 59.4%); MS (1688, 80.4%); CT (2389, 74.8%); PR (3228, 94.4%); RI (3506, 79.2%); DC (4188, 83.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (2, 0.0%); NS (6, 0.0%); NB (14, 6.8%); BC (151, 21.3%); SK (173, 41.6%); QC (5340, 74.0%)

Three more cases in our neighbourhood, for a total of 39. Probably still at Nisbet Lodge, but categorized as 30 outbreak-associated and 9 sporadic.

It's hard to say what exactly is happening in Toronto, as the daily figures have been revised going back to the beginning, resulting in a net drop of 10 cumulative cases. All I can tell is that we have about 820 active cases, which is slightly larger than yesterday's 761, but which is calculated on the basis of completely different data.

The situation in Ontario is at least clearer, and is likely indicative of what is actually going on in Toronto. New cases increased for a third day in a row, jumping from 178 to 257 cases, as people take advantage of relaxed restrictions in phase 2 to infect each other. That moves Ontario's active case trend back in the increasing direction, removing us from the post-peak list.

Canada as a whole is likely a day or two away from trending back upward itself. It's hard to say exactly, what with Quebec having shut off its data for a few days.

Today's chart shows where all the countries in the Americas have gotten to. Most cumulative cases per capita is Chile (1 in 70), followed by Peru, U.S., Panama, Brazil. Fastest growth is in Antigua & Barbuda, followed by Paraguay, Suriname, Costa Rica, Colombia and Honduras.

Stay safe.

2020-06-29

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-387.0→-439.7), Louisiana (-8→-12), Alabama (12→14), U.S. (16→15), Brazil (14→16), California (24→24), South Africa (27→29), Israel (62→58), Mexico (74→84), India (87→87), Romania (137→158), Indonesia (162→168), Ontario (315→285), Spain (370→370), Australia (639→507), Germany (620→677), Japan (846→785), Austria (805→805), Norway (978→859), New Zealand (2337→2337), China (27286→24917)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Ontario

The same: U.S.

Better: California, India, Indonesia

Much better: Louisiana, Alabama, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Romania

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (42→63, 9.2%), Thailand (48→95, 3.5%), Malaysia (57→106, 7.5%), South Korea (143→137, 15.2%), Italy (277→372, 19.7%), Denmark (7926→600, 14.7%), Singapore (662→615, 41.2%), Iran (736→834, 82.7%), Turkey (1346→1102, 30.7%), Toronto (248→1443, 27.5%), Sweden (new→1482, 94.8%), France (new→3599, 54.6%), Poland (new→6269, 96.8%), Canada (4834→14438, 85.2%), U.K. (new→346988, 84.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Fiji, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (1, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (3, 0.0%); Liechtenstein, Saint Lucia (9, 0.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (10, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (11, 0.0%); Belize (14, 25.4%); Cameroon (14, 52.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 94.1%); Kosovo (14, 100.0%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 2.0%); Nicaragua, Seychelles (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Bahamas (19, 13.2%); Andorra (21, 0.9%); Cuba (21, 5.3%); Chad (44, 3.0%); Djibouti (51, 10.2%); Uganda (64, 13.6%); Estonia (78, 11.3%); Botswana (104, 79.7%); Guinea (138, 61.0%); Latvia (158, 35.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (165, 66.9%); Sri Lanka (166, 38.5%); Belarus (217, 72.4%); Jordan (236, 85.4%); Zambia (240, 35.7%); Jamaica (242, 39.3%); Qatar (345, 50.6%); Burma (386, 60.6%); Mongolia (414, 40.9%); Somalia (443, 80.7%); Niger (455, 13.3%); Bahrain (468, 89.1%); Cyprus (546, 28.5%); Georgia (558, 41.6%); Hungary (610, 55.9%); Zimbabwe (703, 92.1%); Lithuania (732, 32.0%); Afghanistan (803, 88.6%); Pakistan (951, 94.0%); South Sudan (1074, 63.3%); Maldives (1219, 40.5%); Tajikistan (1234, 71.2%); Sudan (1262, 93.8%); United Arab Emirates (1293, 65.7%); Sierra Leone (1919, 82.7%); Peru (2096, 95.0%); Netherlands (3127, 69.7%); Russia (3648, 96.3%); Chile (4661, 58.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): MP (14, 68.2%); VI (14, 13.7%); WV (140, 74.3%); NC (314, 69.5%); NE (373, 80.1%); MI (894, 59.4%); MS (1688, 80.4%); CT (2389, 74.8%); PR (3228, 94.4%); RI (3506, 79.2%); DC (4188, 83.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (2, 0.0%); NS (6, 0.0%); NB (14, 6.8%); BC (151, 21.3%); SK (173, 41.6%); QC (5340, 74.0%)

Three more cases in our neighbourhood, for a total of 39. Probably still at Nisbet Lodge, but categorized as 30 outbreak-associated and 9 sporadic.

It's hard to say what exactly is happening in Toronto, as the daily figures have been revised going back to the beginning, resulting in a net drop of 10 cumulative cases. All I can tell is that we have about 820 active cases, which is slightly larger than yesterday's 761, but which is calculated on the basis of completely different data.

The situation in Ontario is at least clearer, and is likely indicative of what is actually going on in Toronto. New cases increased for a third day in a row, jumping from 178 to 257 cases, as people take advantage of relaxed restrictions in phase 2 to infect each other. That moves Ontario's active case trend back in the increasing direction, removing us from the post-peak list.

Canada as a whole is likely a day or two away from trending back upward itself. It's hard to say exactly, what with Quebec having shut off its data for a few days.

Today's chart shows where all the countries in the Americas have gotten to. Most cumulative cases per capita is Chile (1 in 70), followed by Peru, U.S., Panama, Brazil. Fastest growth is in Antigua & Barbuda, followed by Paraguay, Suriname, Costa Rica, Colombia and Honduras.

Stay safe.

2020-06-28

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-415.4→-387.0), Louisiana (-8→-8), Alabama (13→12), Brazil (14→14), U.S. (18→16), California (23→24), Sweden (25→25), South Africa (28→27), Israel (65→62), Mexico (68→74), India (91→87), Romania (133→137), Indonesia (162→162), U.K. (230→217), Poland (214→232), Spain (445→370), France (419→549), Germany (571→620), Australia (705→639), Austria (805→805), Japan (843→846), Norway (870→978), New Zealand (2330→2337), China (24553→27286)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: India, U.K.

Worse: U.S., Israel

The same: Alabama, South Africa

Better: Louisiana, Brazil, California, Sweden, Romania, Indonesia, Poland

Much better: Mexico

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (55→42, 9.6%), Thailand (187→48, 3.5%), Malaysia (57→57, 7.2%), South Korea (149→143, 15.6%), Toronto (216→248, 27.0%), Italy (267→277, 19.9%), Singapore (406→662, 42.1%), Iran (778→736, 83.6%), Turkey (6729→1346, 30.8%), Ontario (641→1640, 55.7%), Canada (3895→4834, 85.0%), Denmark (1069→7926, 14.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (60): Fiji, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (2, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (4, 0.0%); Liechtenstein, Saint Lucia (10, 0.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (11, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (12, 0.0%); Belize (14, 25.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 94.1%); Kosovo (14, 100.0%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Niger (14, 13.9%); Seychelles (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Chad (16, 3.2%); Bahamas (19, 13.2%); Andorra (21, 0.9%); Ireland (25, 2.9%); Djibouti (28, 10.2%); Cuba (29, 6.7%); Cameroon (51, 52.1%); Finland (55, 12.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (63, 67.4%); Estonia (71, 11.9%); Botswana (90, 79.7%); Guinea (129, 62.0%); Latvia (151, 35.7%); Uganda (173, 18.1%); Burma (195, 59.8%); Belarus (200, 74.8%); Jamaica (214, 37.6%); Sri Lanka (221, 40.4%); Mongolia (272, 40.0%); South Sudan (368, 59.2%); Qatar (432, 52.9%); Cabo Verde (453, 94.1%); Sierra Leone (458, 80.7%); Hungary (492, 56.1%); Somalia (521, 81.8%); Lithuania (530, 31.7%); Afghanistan (620, 89.6%); Tajikistan (873, 71.6%); Georgia (940, 42.3%); United Arab Emirates (997, 66.5%); Chile (1175, 58.1%); Russia (1251, 95.9%); Jordan (1319, 88.5%); Bahrain (1485, 94.4%); Bhutan (1612, 61.8%); Sudan (2165, 97.7%); Netherlands (2787, 69.9%); Peru (4442, 95.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): MP (14, 68.2%); VI (14, 13.7%); NE (738, 82.2%); WV (966, 84.7%); MI (1134, 58.2%); DC (1949, 82.4%); RI (1967, 79.3%); CT (3072, 75.1%); MD (3696, 86.6%); IN (9604, 60.9%); MA (44281, 76.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (10): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (3, 0.0%); NS (7, 0.0%); MB (14, 7.8%); NB (14, 6.8%); AB (817, 16.6%); BC (1233, 22.2%); QC (1921, 72.8%)

New Zealand has quietly crept back up into the double digits a few new daily cases at a time, and sits now at 20 active cases.

Malta has had no new cases today and its 25 active cases are gradually declining, so it could overtake New Zealand on the way to recovery tomorrow.

Quebec has shut down its daily case reporting, and since that province had the majority of cases in Canada, we do not have any clear sense of how many active cases there are in the country anymore. Three days ago, the last day that it did report, it showed 154 new cases and an increase of 59 active cases, a substantial increase over the days leading up to it. The government website says that they have reversed course and will resume daily reporting later today.

Toronto is still technically seeing a decrease in active case numbers, with 84 new cases, 99 recoveries and 3 deaths today netting out to an 18-case decline from 823 to 805. Of concern however is the fact that our actual new case numbers are increasing (40, 62, 84) when they should be decreasing (because the active cases that are transmitting them are decreasing); the rate of new cases per active case has increased 4.5%, 7.3%, 10.2% over the last three days. It makes sense that that percentage is going up, because we see riskier behaviour outside every day.

In Ontario, the active cases dropped by a mere 3 cases, and only because of how deaths are counted. We had more new cases (178) than resolved ones (175), but six deaths tipped the balance.

Five more new cases in our own neighbourhood, bringing it up to 36. I still think that most if not all of these cases are at the 103-bed Nisbet Lodge long-term care, which the home itself now reports as having 26 active resident cases, plus 4 resident deaths, and 26 staff cases. I wish I were sure, though, and I'm surprised that their dire situation hasn't made the local news.

I was thinking about friends and family in Asia today; today's chart shows where each country has gotten to in the pandemic, vs. how fast it continues to worsen.

Stay safe.

2020-06-27

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-415.4→-415.4), Louisiana (-8→-8), Alabama (16→13), Brazil (17→14), U.S. (22→18), California (23→23), Sweden (25→25), South Africa (31→28), Israel (72→65), Mexico (62→68), India (91→91), Romania (143→133), Indonesia (170→162), Poland (267→214), France (419→419), Spain (445→445), Germany (497→571), Australia (866→705), Austria (805→805), Japan (768→843), Norway (783→870), New Zealand (2328→2330), China (26438→24553)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Brazil, U.S., Israel, Romania, Indonesia, Poland

Worse: South Africa

Better: Louisiana, California, Sweden, India

Much better: Mexico

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (75→55, 10.7%), Malaysia (69→57, 7.4%), South Korea (291→149, 15.4%), Thailand (129→187, 4.4%), Toronto (219→216, 27.6%), Italy (309→267, 20.8%), Singapore (243→406, 42.4%), Ontario (1037→641, 54.4%), Iran (722→778, 84.9%), Denmark (new→1069, 14.7%), Canada (4002→3895, 85.1%), Turkey (7278→6729, 31.7%), U.K. (15701→43173, 84.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (59): Fiji, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (3, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (5, 0.0%); Liechtenstein, Saint Lucia (11, 0.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (12, 0.0%); Barbados, San Marino (13, 0.0%); Belize (14, 25.4%); Burundi, Kosovo (14, 100.0%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Andorra (15, 0.9%); Chad (16, 3.2%); Bahamas (20, 19.8%); Ireland (23, 2.8%); Djibouti (27, 10.2%); Cuba (29, 7.1%); Uganda (29, 15.0%); Finland (54, 12.2%); Cameroon (55, 52.1%); Mongolia (69, 40.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (79, 71.7%); Estonia (108, 13.6%); Burma (120, 58.2%); Latvia (133, 35.0%); Sierra Leone (162, 82.1%); Guinea (168, 63.8%); Cabo Verde (193, 82.7%); Belarus (259, 79.5%); Lithuania (279, 31.3%); Sri Lanka (353, 40.5%); Georgia (356, 41.9%); Jordan (404, 89.8%); Qatar (417, 53.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (462, 94.1%); Hungary (506, 56.6%); United Arab Emirates (610, 66.4%); Mali (669, 88.1%); Botswana (714, 94.9%); Somalia (721, 86.1%); Chile (728, 59.0%); Tajikistan (760, 72.0%); Afghanistan (786, 91.4%); South Sudan (863, 60.7%); Saudi Arabia (1310, 95.3%); Bhutan (1455, 57.0%); Jamaica (1549, 40.2%); Russia (1773, 97.0%); Netherlands (2891, 70.2%); Peru (17827, 96.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): MP (14, 68.2%); VI (21, 13.7%); WV (255, 80.1%); NE (1252, 83.8%); MI (1376, 57.0%); CT (1679, 74.9%); DC (1895, 82.7%); MD (2452, 86.5%); RI (2706, 79.3%); NH (6974, 49.9%); NJ (9662, 72.9%); MA (10311, 76.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (4, 0.0%); NS (8, 0.0%); NB (14, 12.3%); BC (256, 22.2%); AB (1218, 16.6%); QC (2151, 73.3%)

That number of U.S. states and territories whose active case numbers have been trending downward has itself been trending rapidly downward over the last few days: 20, 19, 16, 12. It had been hovering around 20 for a week, after being higher earlier. Its decline means that there are only nine U.S. states (plus D.C., and two territories) whose condition is still improving, a recent record low. Today's chart shows how exactly each state is doing.

The situation is similar among the countries of the world: 59 represents a steady six-day drop from 77.

Ontario continued to improve very slightly for the fourth day, dropping from 1,918 to 1,892 active cases. Toronto also dropped slightly, from 847 to 823 cases. Both regions are still seeing an equilibrium level of 7~8% new cases per active one; equilibrium because new cases take 14 days to age out of the system, and 1/14 is a little over 7%.

We continue to see steady increases in our neighbourhood, which is up four to 31 cases today. I think it may still be institutional cases in a local nursing home, but it's hard to say, because of differences in reporting systems. It would not surprise me if there were more sporadic cases in our neighbourhood: earlier today, neighbours a few doors down held a birthday party for about twenty guests on their front lawn, involving food sharing, singing, and not a lot of social distancing.

Stay safe.

2020-06-26

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-439.2→-415.4), Louisiana (-8→-8), Alabama (21→16), Brazil (21→17), U.S. (24→22), California (25→23), Sweden (29→25), South Africa (33→31), Mexico (63→62), Israel (83→72), India (95→91), Romania (161→143), Indonesia (179→170), Denmark (306→306), Spain (515→445), Germany (537→497), Japan (768→768), Norway (1410→783), Austria (849→805), Australia (1078→866), New Zealand (2328→2328), China (22019→26438)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Brazil, Sweden, Israel, India, Romania, Indonesia

Worse: U.S., California, South Africa

The same: Mexico

Better: Louisiana, Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (146→69, 8.0%), Malta (84→75, 11.8%), Thailand (142→129, 4.3%), Toronto (276→219, 28.4%), Singapore (203→243, 42.4%), South Korea (new→291, 16.7%), Italy (328→309, 21.6%), Iran (1065→722, 85.6%), Ontario (13215→1037, 54.8%), Canada (2789→4002, 85.5%), Turkey (2843→7278, 31.9%), Poland (2541→11513, 97.6%), France (new→14935, 54.5%), U.K. (20341→15701, 84.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (64): Fiji, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (4, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (6, 0.0%); Liechtenstein, Saint Lucia (12, 0.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (13, 0.0%); Barbados (14, 9.6%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Latvia (14, 41.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 30.8%); San Marino (14, 1.1%); Taiwan (14, 1.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Andorra (16, 1.4%); Chad (18, 3.8%); Bahamas (20, 19.8%); Ireland (23, 2.7%); Finland (27, 11.4%); Uganda (27, 18.8%); Cuba (30, 7.7%); Djibouti (33, 13.1%); Cameroon (58, 52.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (88, 73.0%); Mongolia (91, 44.5%); South Sudan (107, 60.7%); Estonia (131, 14.2%); Burma (201, 61.4%); Sierra Leone (224, 83.6%); Sri Lanka (254, 41.9%); Georgia (292, 42.6%); Cabo Verde (339, 79.7%); Suriname (353, 84.6%); Botswana (362, 94.9%); United Arab Emirates (417, 65.8%); Belarus (426, 83.7%); Qatar (428, 55.7%); Lithuania (455, 32.0%); Mali (598, 85.4%); Saudi Arabia (632, 93.0%); Chile (650, 58.9%); Somalia (871, 86.1%); Afghanistan (950, 93.0%); Hungary (952, 57.8%); Tajikistan (1159, 72.4%); Jordan (1430, 94.9%); Bhutan (1455, 57.0%); Sudan (1725, 96.7%); Greece (2323, 78.1%); Pakistan (2452, 97.6%); Netherlands (3026, 70.5%); Russia (3379, 98.0%); Togo (4250, 78.3%); Guinea (5056, 76.2%); Lebanon (6685, 88.7%); Guinea-Bissau (19037, 64.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): MP (59, 68.2%); ND (190, 28.1%); WV (314, 91.2%); HI (353, 43.2%); DC (1442, 83.0%); IN (1666, 59.3%); SD (1818, 57.1%); CT (2997, 75.4%); ME (4168, 64.0%); NH (5582, 49.9%); MA (6008, 76.4%); MD (6088, 87.2%); RI (6449, 79.3%); PR (10071, 92.3%); NE (12017, 87.0%); NJ (25883, 73.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (10): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (5, 0.0%); NS (9, 0.0%); NB (18, 17.8%); MB (51, 5.7%); BC (171, 22.2%); AB (441, 16.3%); QC (2784, 73.9%)

New York State's estimated active case count has now increased slightly (0.6%) day by day for a week. That makes them the state with the slowest positive growth of the 37 whose situation is currently worsening. The ones whose active case numbers are declining are ND (fastest) WV HI DC IN SD CT MA MD ME (slowest); NE NH NJ PR RI are more or less steady. By way of comparison, Idaho's thousand or so active cases are growing by 15% or so daily, 14% in MS, 13% in LA, 8% in TX FL, 6% in MT AZ, 4% in CA KS GA AK NV OK MO MN, etc. So less than 1% growth, while terrible, because it means that the healthcare system has to look after a thousand more people every day, is excellent by current American standards.

Ontario surprises me by continuing to improve despite being well into phase 2 of reopening. We had only 111 new cases, and our active case dropped from 2,036 to 1,918.

Similarly in Toronto, 40 new cases, 88 recoveries and 2 deaths dropped us from 897 to 847 remaining cases in the city.

Today's chart shows where all the countries in the world are on active cases and rates of change. Canada is declining slightly from 1 in 1,309 (or to the left of 0.1%) people actively infected now.

Stay safe.

2020-06-25

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-452.7→-439.2), Louisiana (-7→-8), Alabama (27→21), Brazil (21→21), U.S. (24→24), California (25→25), Sweden (43→29), South Africa (36→33), Mexico (65→63), Israel (83→83), India (95→95), Romania (181→161), Indonesia (190→179), Denmark (276→306), Spain (394→515), Germany (512→537), France (729→729), Japan (824→768), Austria (849→849), Australia (1227→1078), South Korea (1305→1132), Norway (1153→1410), New Zealand (2094→2328), China (22019→22019)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Sweden, Romania, Indonesia

Worse: South Africa, Mexico

Better: Louisiana, Brazil, U.S., California, Israel, India

Much better: Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (228→84, 11.8%), Thailand (311→142, 4.3%), Malaysia (130→146, 9.4%), Singapore (159→203, 43.8%), Toronto (240→276, 30.0%), Italy (441→328, 22.1%), Iran (1890→1065, 87.2%), Poland (1210→2541, 97.4%), Canada (2753→2789, 85.5%), Turkey (1903→2843, 32.0%), Ontario (1601→13215, 56.6%), U.K. (new→20341, 84.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (67): Fiji, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (5, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (7, 0.0%); Liechtenstein, Saint Lucia (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 5.6%); Barbados (14, 9.6%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 79.5%); Latvia (14, 41.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 30.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); San Marino (14, 3.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Andorra (16, 1.4%); Chad (16, 4.0%); Uganda (18, 18.4%); Bahamas (19, 22.0%); Ireland (22, 2.6%); Finland (26, 11.1%); Djibouti (30, 16.6%); Taiwan (37, 1.5%); Cuba (55, 12.2%); Cameroon (67, 52.1%); South Sudan (68, 65.0%); Mongolia (69, 42.7%); Bhutan (73, 62.4%); Jamaica (99, 43.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (99, 77.5%); Estonia (138, 14.9%); Sierra Leone (158, 83.8%); Suriname (176, 87.3%); Burma (277, 63.8%); Sri Lanka (310, 45.2%); Botswana (362, 94.9%); Qatar (382, 57.0%); United Arab Emirates (454, 67.8%); Haiti (479, 87.5%); Mali (516, 84.7%); Belarus (609, 87.6%); Tajikistan (652, 73.0%); Somalia (731, 86.3%); Afghanistan (749, 93.2%); Togo (843, 77.0%); Lithuania (867, 33.1%); Tunisia (908, 16.2%); Georgia (966, 43.3%); Chile (1254, 58.5%); Jordan (1784, 94.9%); Guinea (2138, 76.2%); Sudan (2144, 97.1%); Netherlands (2167, 70.6%); Saudi Arabia (2473, 96.1%); Hungary (2530, 58.7%); Greece (2575, 78.4%); Russia (3686, 97.7%); Guinea-Bissau (19037, 64.5%); Belgium (27252, 66.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): MP (59, 68.2%); ND (125, 27.8%); NC (257, 84.9%); HI (305, 41.6%); WV (322, 90.9%); IN (587, 58.4%); NH (652, 48.2%); SD (889, 57.4%); PA (973, 46.1%); ME (1391, 63.7%); DC (1936, 83.6%); CT (3943, 76.0%); MD (4473, 87.1%); MN (5767, 32.0%); NE (6680, 88.4%); MA (8772, 76.5%); NJ (11346, 72.8%); RI (13646, 80.0%); IL (345815, 79.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (6, 0.0%); NS (10, 0.0%); NB (20, 19.2%); AB (514, 16.2%); QC (3765, 74.6%)

New York's active case numbers have risen for the fifth straight day, leading to some confusion in the large negative days-to-1% figure. The direction of change is not good.

The number of American states and the number of countries that appear to be post-peak is not increasing, just wobbling a little as countries waver back and forth between increasing and decreasing numbers of active cases.

Russia showed its first decline in active cases ever, and makes its debut on the post-peak list today.

In eight days, we have gone in our little neighbourhood of 7,800 people in Playter Estates-Danforth from 9 cases to 26 cases. Sadly, the new cases appear to all be at Nisbet Lodge, a 103-bd nursing home on Pape Avenue, across from the subway station. Eight days ago, the first case was reported there, and they now have 12 resident cases and 18 staff cases, and some of the residents have succumbed.

We haven't solved our nursing home problem here. I remember from when we looked for nursing homes for my mother and her sisters that the downtown nursing homes were all cramped spaces, often retrofits of decrepit apartment buildings. The newer and suburban homes were more spacious, but also had features like communal bathrooms, for safety and efficiency. Staffing levels are based on provincial healthcare funding, and are barely adequate at the best of times. They were supplemented for a while early on in the pandemic with soldiers, but they're gone now; the city also offered its employees who couldn't do their regular jobs the opportunity to work in its municipally operated long-term care facilities.

We are two days into Phase 2 in Toronto, and here and in Ontario our new cases and recoveries are practically identical. In Toronto, 65 new cases and 66 recoveries: add in 9 deaths and it looks like we're making progress with our active case counts. In Ontario, 189, 192 and 10.

Today's chart shows where my personal regions of interest are headed.

Stay safe.

2020-06-24

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-394.2→-452.7), Louisiana (-4→-7), Brazil (23→21), U.S. (27→24), California (32→25), South Africa (36→36), Sweden (61→43), Mexico (66→65), Israel (117→83), India (95→95), Romania (178→181), Indonesia (181→190), U.K. (212→212), Denmark (280→276), Spain (394→394), Germany (516→512), France (353→729), Austria (849→849), Norway (1243→1153), Australia (1254→1227), South Korea (1141→1305), New Zealand (2614→2094), China (22019→22019)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Sweden, Israel, Denmark

Worse: Brazil, U.S.

The same: Mexico

Better: South Africa, India, Romania, Indonesia, U.K.

Much better: Louisiana, France

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (74→130, 10.9%), Singapore (143→159, 44.6%), Malta (144→228, 14.0%), Toronto (203→240, 30.4%), Thailand (103→311, 5.2%), Italy (377→441, 23.1%), Japan (new→553, 9.2%), Alabama (new→1178, 86.3%), Poland (1304→1210, 96.7%), Ontario (1264→1601, 56.9%), Iran (49503→1890, 88.7%), Turkey (1323→1903, 31.8%), Canada (2436→2753, 85.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Fiji, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (6, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (8, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 5.6%); Barbados (14, 9.6%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 79.5%); Iceland (14, 0.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 15.4%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Andorra (16, 1.4%); Bahamas (19, 22.0%); Uganda (21, 20.4%); Liechtenstein (24, 19.1%); San Marino (26, 8.5%); Taiwan (37, 1.5%); Cuba (42, 13.0%); Chad (44, 7.2%); Djibouti (56, 24.2%); Ghana (62, 56.4%); South Sudan (68, 64.0%); Mongolia (71, 42.7%); Bhutan (73, 62.4%); Finland (77, 19.9%); Jamaica (87, 41.7%); Burkina Faso (93, 9.7%); Vietnam (106, 12.7%); Suriname (138, 80.5%); Sierra Leone (174, 85.6%); Sri Lanka (205, 45.6%); Georgia (250, 43.3%); Estonia (258, 16.1%); Haiti (270, 87.3%); Jordan (279, 90.2%); Burma (289, 66.3%); Paraguay (365, 85.3%); Qatar (401, 58.3%); United Arab Emirates (420, 69.3%); Somalia (476, 86.7%); Mali (495, 88.8%); Lebanon (535, 89.9%); Lithuania (559, 33.3%); Belarus (700, 92.1%); Botswana (737, 97.5%); Tajikistan (892, 74.2%); Guinea (1510, 78.7%); Yemen (1999, 64.7%); Afghanistan (2084, 95.7%); Togo (2117, 77.8%); Netherlands (2141, 70.9%); Switzerland (3333, 2.6%); Cyprus (3353, 29.5%); Portugal (5460, 98.1%); Saudi Arabia (5705, 95.8%); Peru (6587, 97.7%); Bahrain (7670, 96.8%); Greece (9460, 78.4%); Belgium (10642, 66.6%); Chile (13660, 60.4%); Guinea-Bissau (19037, 64.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (20): MP (59, 68.2%); ND (115, 26.7%); NC (274, 80.4%); ME (371, 59.4%); MN (401, 29.7%); WV (433, 87.2%); NE (738, 86.5%); SD (835, 56.1%); NH (993, 49.2%); DC (1832, 83.9%); CT (2602, 76.1%); HI (2876, 40.7%); WA (4540, 96.1%); PA (4841, 47.3%); IL (5968, 78.9%); MD (8323, 87.6%); MA (13957, 76.9%); VA (61838, 86.7%); IN (65485, 61.2%); NJ (66076, 72.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (7, 0.0%); NS (11, 0.0%); NB (26, 21.9%); BC (246, 22.6%); QC (2254, 74.4%)

New York is getting better again, but still on the rising side of a small possible peak.

California had a record number of new cases yesterday with 5,019, and a new record today with 7,149.

Toronto neighbourhoods with at least three new cases today: Weston (9); Black Creek, Brookhaven-Amesbury, Waterfront Communities-The Island, York University Heights (4); Birchcliffe-Cliffside, Glenfield-Jane Heights, High Park North (3).

Toronto managed to extend to 16 days its streak in declining active case numbers, dropping during that time from 2,017 to 907. Let's hope that continues as in Phase 2, which started here yesterday. We are still seeing each active case contribute 0.08 new cases, which is very close to equilibrium.

Ontario managed to get back on track after breaking its streak yesterday, dropping to 2,049 cases (lower than 2,095 two days ago).

Quebec, which accounts for the majority of active cases in Canada, reportedly announced today that they are giving up on publishing daily COVID-19 statistics and will switch to a weekly schedule effective July 2.

Today's graph charts all the countries that have lost 1,000 or more people to COVID-19, with the one that lost the most today on top (Brazil), followed by the next (U.S.) and so on.

Stay safe.

2020-06-23

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: New York (-394.2→-394.2), Louisiana (-4→-4), Brazil (21→23), Alabama (21→25), U.S. (28→27), California (33→32), South Africa (37→36), Sweden (43→61), India (94→95), Israel (117→117), Romania (162→178), Indonesia (178→181), U.K. (151→212), Denmark (269→280), France (353→353), Spain (394→394), Germany (574→516), Austria (849→849), Japan (1478→853), South Korea (1015→1141), Norway (1583→1243), Australia (1251→1254), New Zealand (3484→2614), China (18464→22019)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

The same: U.S., California, South Africa

Better: Louisiana, India, Israel, Indonesia, Denmark, France

Much better: Brazil, Alabama, Sweden, Romania, U.K.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (45→74, 11.1%), Thailand (169→103, 4.9%), Singapore (147→143, 46.6%), Malta (242→144, 14.4%), Toronto (171→203, 31.6%), Italy (323→377, 24.4%), Ontario (654→1264, 57.5%), Poland (2781→1304, 96.7%), Turkey (1340→1323, 31.9%), Canada (2357→2436, 86.0%), Mexico (new→2689, 95.6%), Iran (new→49503, 89.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Fiji, Holy See, Laos, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (7, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (9, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 5.6%); Barbados (14, 9.6%); Belize (14, 25.4%); Burkina Faso (14, 11.2%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 79.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 74.2%); Papua New Guinea (14, 15.4%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 25.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Andorra (23, 1.6%); Liechtenstein (29, 20.7%); Chad (34, 7.2%); San Marino (34, 9.9%); Taiwan (37, 1.5%); Uganda (39, 29.8%); Cuba (45, 13.8%); Bhutan (53, 57.6%); Djibouti (57, 25.1%); Ghana (64, 56.8%); South Sudan (69, 62.7%); Finland (76, 19.4%); Bahamas (81, 35.2%); Slovenia (96, 5.1%); Jamaica (112, 40.8%); Sri Lanka (123, 43.7%); Mongolia (153, 51.8%); Zambia (165, 35.8%); Maldives (202, 39.6%); Burma (228, 68.7%); Haiti (248, 86.7%); Suriname (259, 81.0%); Estonia (268, 16.7%); Paraguay (344, 84.1%); Qatar (347, 59.5%); Yemen (351, 62.1%); United Arab Emirates (403, 70.9%); Georgia (435, 44.6%); Jordan (562, 95.6%); Belarus (642, 93.5%); Lebanon (647, 90.3%); Lithuania (703, 34.2%); Mali (731, 91.8%); Guinea (741, 76.6%); Central African Republic (815, 93.5%); Togo (837, 76.5%); Sierra Leone (994, 96.9%); Bahrain (1043, 95.7%); Tajikistan (1044, 75.0%); Somalia (1070, 89.8%); Afghanistan (1073, 96.3%); Cyprus (1107, 29.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (1183, 97.7%); Libya (1261, 91.3%); Portugal (2052, 97.7%); Netherlands (2220, 71.2%); Greece (2400, 77.7%); Peru (2801, 97.7%); Belgium (2869, 65.8%); Ecuador (2879, 74.6%); Hungary (4065, 60.0%); Kuwait (5066, 51.7%); Cameroon (5759, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): MP (59, 68.2%); ND (85, 26.2%); MI (179, 58.7%); NC (235, 72.8%); WI (288, 71.5%); ME (327, 62.9%); MN (336, 30.0%); NH (574, 50.1%); NE (632, 86.4%); WA (713, 93.0%); SD (826, 55.5%); IN (1007, 59.3%); PA (1076, 45.6%); DC (1635, 84.2%); CT (2647, 76.7%); IL (2859, 78.4%); VA (4230, 85.9%); MA (6200, 77.0%); MD (6285, 88.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (8, 0.0%); NS (14, 0.2%); NB (56, 27.4%); BC (1030, 24.3%); QC (2419, 74.7%)

New York State is showing slight sustained growth of its active case count, back up to where it was 5 or 6 days ago, and is temporarily therefore back off the post-peak list as we wait to see if it's headed for a big second wave, or just a bump on the its way downhill.

News in my area was very mixed today. I did some further research in my neighbourhood, and the new cases were mostly if not all at Nisbet Lodge, a private long-term care facility that we once considered placing my mom in. (We didn't, because they didn't have a secure dementia wing.) So, good news for the rest of the neighbourhood and terrible news for a relatively small nursing home.

The most affected neighbourhoods in Toronto today were: Mount Olive-Silverstone-Jamestown (9); Downsview-Roding-CFB, Birchcliffe-Cliffside, Mimico (4); West Humber-Clairville, Wexford/Maryvale, Yorkdale-Glen Park (3).

The total number of new cases was up a little at 63, but offset by 81 recoveries and 8 deaths, so we shaved 26 more cases off our active case count to end up at 944.

Ontario broke its 15-day streak of decreasing active case counts, with a surge in new cases to 216; active cases are now 2,127.

Toronto is due to proceed to Phase Two on Wednesday, when most businesses will be allowed to reopen, as long as they can maintain social distancing as part of their regular operations. I'm concerned that we're not ready for it yet, because we are nowhere near where we could contact-trace new cases. Our case fatality rate of 8% suggests that we're missing 7 cases for every case we catch, so there are a lot of undiagnosed people unquarantined in the city.

I had two unusual social interactions today. One was to take my father to an actual in-person medical appointment, because it's hard to do a full ophthalmological examination over the phone. His ophthalmologist said she was having trouble with patients who thought that they were supposed to pull their masks down whenever they needed to speak, cough or sneeze. Thankfully, she had booked us in as the first appointment of the day, and he didn't have too much contact with the patients who arrived after him.

The other was a newspaper photo shoot. I had set up the usual dining room Scrabble board and masked up, when the photographer asked if I could set up a board and table outside. Sure, why not. Even safer. He stayed masked the whole time even at a three-metre distance outdoors, and I appreciated the courtesy.

Today's chart shows the ten countries in the world that have the largest number of active cases of COVID-19, laid out according to the proportion of their country that is infected and at what rate it's decreasing (Peru) or increasing (the rest) by day.

Stay safe.

2020-06-22

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (22→21), Brazil (21→21), U.S. (30→28), California (33→33), South Africa (38→37), Mexico (65→69), India (95→94), Iran (114→114), Israel (101→117), U.K. (149→151), Romania (151→162), Indonesia (160→178), France (342→353), Spain (394→394), Germany (420→574), Austria (849→849), South Korea (822→1015), Australia (1139→1251), Japan (1478→1478), Norway (1004→1583), New Zealand (4175→3484), China (15188→18464)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Worse: U.S.

The same: Alabama, South Africa, India

Better: Brazil, California, Mexico, Iran, U.K., Romania, France

Much better: Israel, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (31→45, 11.4%), Singapore (151→147, 49.5%), Thailand (118→169, 5.0%), Toronto (172→171, 32.5%), Malta (14→242, 14.8%), Louisiana (new→248, 40.7%), Italy (290→323, 24.8%), Ontario (560→654, 56.7%), Turkey (2899→1340, 32.1%), Canada (1151→2357, 86.5%), Poland (new→2781, 98.0%), Denmark (797→7064, 13.3%), New York (23807→237915, 68.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Fiji, Holy See, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Laos (1, 0.0%); Western Sahara (5, 0.0%); Brunei (8, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (10, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 2.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 5.6%); Barbados (14, 9.6%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 79.5%); Iceland (14, 0.7%); Jordan (14, 96.6%); Kosovo (14, 89.8%); Lesotho (14, 50.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Nicaragua (14, 74.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Slovenia (14, 5.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Belize (25, 19.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 25.0%); Chad (27, 8.0%); Cuba (48, 14.6%); Uganda (49, 40.0%); San Marino (50, 15.5%); Bahamas (51, 35.2%); Bhutan (53, 57.6%); Djibouti (61, 28.4%); Ghana (66, 56.8%); Jamaica (104, 39.0%); Sri Lanka (173, 46.6%); Zambia (174, 35.8%); South Sudan (181, 79.6%); Yemen (193, 58.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (194, 87.3%); Estonia (209, 16.8%); Latvia (211, 41.5%); Lebanon (237, 89.0%); Maldives (256, 39.2%); Mali (362, 89.5%); United Arab Emirates (392, 72.4%); Haiti (398, 87.3%); Cyprus (416, 28.7%); Qatar (427, 61.5%); Bahrain (458, 92.2%); Central African Republic (517, 94.0%); Mongolia (520, 54.5%); Georgia (524, 46.0%); Belarus (532, 92.3%); Somalia (556, 89.1%); Niger (561, 11.4%); Burkina Faso (624, 11.2%); Tajikistan (763, 74.4%); Lithuania (778, 33.8%); Suriname (883, 90.5%); Hungary (987, 59.7%); Cameroon (1018, 96.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (1208, 96.5%); Kuwait (1288, 51.1%); Paraguay (1314, 87.4%); Peru (1434, 95.4%); Portugal (1465, 97.0%); Oman (1512, 92.5%); Afghanistan (1617, 97.0%); Sierra Leone (1915, 94.3%); Netherlands (2386, 71.5%); Algeria (3895, 79.2%); Belgium (6736, 66.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): MP (14, 81.8%); MI (179, 57.6%); NC (294, 69.1%); ND (294, 32.0%); PA (398, 45.3%); NH (404, 50.1%); MS (486, 75.8%); WA (557, 93.2%); WI (562, 72.3%); IN (772, 60.7%); NE (775, 87.3%); ME (798, 64.4%); NM (1400, 96.4%); MD (1674, 87.9%); CT (1753, 76.4%); DC (2264, 85.0%); VA (2680, 85.2%); IL (2699, 78.4%); MA (3394, 76.9%); RI (3644, 79.7%); SD (11953, 58.0%); NJ (12610, 73.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (9, 0.0%); NS (14, 0.2%); BC (548, 25.4%); QC (2758, 75.0%)

I have some concern about New York State, whose 237,915 days (651 years) to eradication points out a recovery that has completely plateaued at a level of over 100,000 active cases. New Jersey's graph looks almost identical. The saddest state graph I looked at though was California's, which shows active cases increasing faster and faster, not quite exponentially yet, but well faster than linearly.

The good news locally is that there were only 37 new cases in Toronto today, fewer than on any date since April 4th. That brought the active case count down from 1,000 to 970, continuing steady progress.

The bad news for us is that there were another five new cases in our neighbourhood of about 7,800 people in Playter Estates-Danforth, bringing us to 20. That's the second time it's happened in four days, and probably represents another household getting sick.

The other neighbourhoods that were most strongly affected today were the usual five in Mount Olive-Silverstone-Jamestown, and four each in Glenfield-Jane Heights, Malvern and Newtonbrook West.

Ontario marked a fifteenth day of consecutive declines in the active case count, coming down from 3,918 all the way to 2,095.

Today's chart shows all the countries in the world, stacked to show how they contribute to the known active cases. As in similar previous charts, the ones who are still increasing are shown at the bottom, and above them the ones that have decreased in the past week. The greatest active case numbers among the increasers are: U.S., Brazil, Russia, India, Pakistan, Spain, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and then they get hard to tell apart. The largest among the decreasers are Peru and the U.K. Canada is next, but is so small by comparison as to be invisible.

Stay safe.

2020-06-21

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (-4→-4), Brazil (18→21), Alabama (22→22), U.S. (33→30), California (35→33), South Africa (38→38), Mexico (65→65), India (101→95), Israel (101→101), Iran (110→114), Romania (155→151), Indonesia (151→160), Poland (215→241), France (334→342), Spain (389→394), Germany (464→420), South Korea (838→822), Austria (836→849), Norway (810→1004), Australia (1162→1139), New Zealand (4175→4175), China (13097→15188)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: India, Romania

Worse: U.S., California

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, South Africa, Mexico, Israel, Iran, Indonesia, France

Much better: Brazil, Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (new→14, 14.4%), Malaysia (25→31, 11.1%), Thailand (172→118, 4.9%), Singapore (156→151, 52.7%), Toronto (124→172, 33.5%), Italy (231→290, 25.1%), Japan (336→335, 9.3%), Ontario (460→560, 56.7%), Denmark (719→797, 13.3%), Sweden (5612→814, 93.9%), Canada (1097→1151, 86.8%), Turkey (new→2899, 32.4%), U.K. (15616→22156, 84.6%), New York (10042→23807, 68.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Fiji, Holy See, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Laos (2, 0.0%); Western Sahara (6, 0.0%); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (11, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 5.6%); Burundi (14, 71.8%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 79.5%); Kosovo (14, 89.8%); Lesotho (14, 50.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Monaco (14, 1.6%); Nicaragua (14, 74.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Taiwan (14, 1.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Belize (25, 19.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 25.0%); Barbados (27, 9.6%); Chad (39, 9.5%); Yemen (49, 58.6%); San Marino (52, 15.5%); Uruguay (62, 6.3%); Ghana (69, 56.2%); Andorra (74, 2.6%); Uganda (91, 56.5%); Cuba (94, 18.0%); Niger (144, 11.2%); Bahamas (145, 41.8%); Djibouti (148, 40.0%); Estonia (158, 17.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (194, 87.3%); Sri Lanka (207, 49.3%); Zambia (216, 35.8%); Mali (253, 89.5%); Latvia (258, 41.5%); Cameroon (329, 89.8%); Lebanon (330, 91.0%); Georgia (338, 44.3%); Cyprus (368, 28.5%); United Arab Emirates (394, 74.0%); Mozambique (395, 91.1%); Maldives (430, 39.1%); Hungary (446, 59.4%); Qatar (457, 63.7%); Central African Republic (501, 89.6%); Somalia (614, 90.0%); Lithuania (631, 34.1%); Belarus (686, 93.9%); Kuwait (919, 51.2%); Haiti (932, 94.0%); Peru (1131, 94.4%); Bahrain (1301, 95.7%); Oman (1388, 91.6%); Tajikistan (1420, 76.7%); Algeria (1805, 78.1%); Portugal (2596, 98.5%); Afghanistan (3380, 98.4%); Netherlands (5680, 71.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): MP (14, 81.8%); MS (14, 81.6%); MI (177, 56.5%); ND (211, 33.9%); PA (417, 48.1%); WI (498, 72.1%); PR (499, 92.9%); NH (798, 50.4%); MD (999, 88.0%); IN (1190, 62.4%); NE (1284, 88.9%); VA (1403, 85.0%); CT (1584, 76.8%); DC (1661, 85.2%); MA (2761, 76.9%); RI (4119, 80.2%); IL (8320, 79.5%); SD (12273, 59.4%); NJ (15842, 73.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (10, 0.0%); NS (14, 0.2%); NB (439, 37.0%); BC (609, 24.8%); QC (2840, 75.4%)

India's daily new case count has increased daily for a sixth day, and is up to 15,413 from 10,667, almost catching Brazil's weekly Sunday low of 17,459.

Today's chart stacks the number of estimated active cases by date for each American state and territory, putting the ones that have more now than a week ago below all those that have fewer, and within each tranche ranking them by how many they currently have. So at the bottom is California (most cases among those that are increasing), then Florida (second most cases among increasers), and Texas. In the middle is New York (most remaining cases among those that are decreasing), then reading up from there NJ, IL, MA, MD, VA. Canada's total active case count is comparable to the state of Virginia's.

Another quiet day in Toronto brought our official active case count down to an even 1,000. That's only 28 fewer than yesterday, so the slowest decline in about a week, driven by the largest number of new cases (88) in four days.

Ontario saw a steadier decline of 87 active cases to 2,151. Both Toronto and Ontario are showing about 8% of new cases per active case, which seems like transmission could be better controlled.

Stay safe.

2020-06-20

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (-4→-4), Brazil (19→18), Alabama (24→22), U.S. (38→33), California (46→35), South Africa (43→38), Mexico (64→65), India (106→101), Israel (104→101), Iran (107→110), Indonesia (152→151), Romania (175→155), Turkey (204→214), Poland (199→215), France (407→334), Spain (428→389), Germany (428→464), Malta (376→662), Norway (853→810), Austria (836→836), South Korea (838→838), Australia (1396→1162), New Zealand (4175→4175), China (13097→13097)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., California, South Africa, India, Romania, France

Worse: Alabama, Israel

The same: Brazil, Indonesia

Better: Louisiana, Mexico, Iran, Turkey, Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (30→25, 13.3%), Toronto (147→124, 34.4%), Singapore (170→156, 56.5%), Thailand (453→172, 5.5%), Italy (334→231, 25.5%), Japan (979→336, 9.7%), Ontario (503→460, 58.2%), Denmark (548→719, 13.3%), Canada (1019→1097, 87.2%), Sweden (new→5612, 96.8%), New York (6748→10042, 68.2%), U.K. (7261→15616, 84.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (67): Fiji, Holy See, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Laos (3, 0.0%); Western Sahara (7, 0.0%); Brunei (10, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 5.6%); Belize (14, 19.0%); Burkina Faso (14, 11.5%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Kosovo (14, 89.8%); Lesotho (14, 50.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 1.6%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Taiwan (14, 1.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Uruguay (17, 5.0%); Barbados (27, 9.6%); San Marino (32, 15.5%); Burundi (54, 71.8%); Chad (58, 10.5%); Bahamas (62, 41.8%); Yemen (69, 65.5%); Andorra (74, 2.6%); Uganda (78, 54.8%); Maldives (81, 37.3%); Cameroon (96, 69.9%); Latvia (100, 41.3%); Djibouti (105, 40.0%); Estonia (119, 17.6%); Cuba (156, 21.6%); Georgia (170, 47.3%); Slovakia (175, 12.2%); Bhutan (202, 77.6%); Sri Lanka (244, 52.1%); Togo (252, 78.7%); Cyprus (292, 29.7%); Hungary (307, 59.5%); United Arab Emirates (402, 76.2%); Qatar (413, 64.7%); Oman (442, 91.1%); Lithuania (465, 34.8%); Paraguay (513, 92.0%); Mali (528, 94.0%); Tajikistan (550, 76.9%); Somalia (571, 92.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (619, 95.8%); Mozambique (687, 96.2%); Lebanon (691, 94.7%); Kuwait (762, 51.6%); Zambia (1387, 35.8%); Bahrain (1641, 97.3%); Belarus (2302, 97.9%); Algeria (2365, 78.5%); Peru (3154, 97.6%); Afghanistan (8839, 97.6%); Portugal (9913, 98.9%); Libya (35584, 96.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (21): MP (14, 81.8%); MI (178, 55.8%); ND (195, 33.0%); WI (354, 73.3%); PA (395, 47.7%); IN (413, 61.2%); ME (442, 63.9%); PR (446, 92.6%); NM (579, 93.8%); NH (659, 50.7%); DC (889, 85.5%); MD (972, 88.0%); CT (2003, 77.3%); SD (2188, 58.1%); RI (2381, 80.2%); MA (3076, 77.2%); VA (3398, 86.8%); NE (3982, 91.0%); IL (4471, 79.5%); NJ (5968, 72.9%); KY (7507, 96.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (11, 0.0%); NS (14, 0.2%); NB (151, 37.0%); QC (2565, 75.8%)

Sweden has finally shown the first signs of reaching its peak in active cases, with a slight downward trend over four days. Congratulations!

It was a quiet COVID-19 day in Toronto today. 6 new cases in Newtonbrook West, 4 in West Humber-Clairville, 3 or fewer elsewhere.

Both Toronto and Ontario continued on their slow, steady journey toward eradication of COVID-19. Toronto was down an average daily 6% to 1,028 active cases with only 53 new ones, Ontario down 3.5% to 2,238, but with 206 new ones. No new nursing home deaths were reported in the whole province, for the first time this side of the curve.

Today's chart uses CMAJ data to show active cases by Canadian province over the duration of the pandemic. The number in Ontario is a little higher than stated above, because the CMAJ database lists a lot of cases that aren't in the Ontario public health database.

Stay safe.

2020-06-19

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (-4→-4), Brazil (27→19), Alabama (24→24), Sweden (36→36), U.S. (42→38), South Africa (43→43), California (46→46), Mexico (69→64), Israel (122→104), India (108→106), Iran (109→107), Indonesia (150→152), Romania (175→175), Poland (186→199), Turkey (190→204), Malta (376→376), France (668→407), Germany (489→428), Spain (488→428), Austria (908→836), South Korea (985→838), Norway (809→853), Australia (1452→1396), China (11910→13097)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, U.S., Mexico, Israel

Worse: India, Iran

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, Sweden, South Africa, California, Indonesia, Romania, Poland, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14, no new data, 0.3%), Malaysia (42→30, 15.7%), Toronto (187→147, 36.7%), Singapore (191→170, 60.7%), Italy (311→334, 27.3%), Thailand (216→453, 5.9%), Ontario (497→503, 59.2%), Denmark (new→548, 13.1%), Japan (394→979, 10.1%), Canada (973→1019, 87.6%), New York (6142→6748, 68.2%), U.K. (10904→7261, 84.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Holy See (1, 0.0%); Laos (4, 0.0%); Western Sahara (8, 0.0%); Brunei (11, 0.0%); Dominica, Grenada (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 5.6%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Lesotho (14, 50.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 1.6%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Taiwan (14, 1.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Uruguay (14, 4.0%); San Marino (17, 15.8%); Andorra (19, 2.6%); Barbados (51, 9.6%); Burundi (54, 71.8%); Maldives (61, 45.2%); Uganda (61, 53.2%); Bahamas (62, 41.8%); Djibouti (76, 41.3%); Chad (94, 11.8%); Latvia (95, 40.8%); Estonia (106, 18.1%); Slovakia (110, 11.0%); Burkina Faso (111, 11.2%); Yemen (118, 66.9%); Cuba (185, 22.4%); Sri Lanka (202, 54.4%); Malawi (219, 78.4%); Togo (255, 78.7%); Switzerland (270, 2.4%); Bhutan (272, 77.0%); Cyprus (348, 29.7%); Hungary (381, 60.5%); Oman (393, 90.1%); United Arab Emirates (425, 78.4%); Paraguay (435, 91.0%); Tajikistan (441, 77.4%); Guinea-Bissau (458, 61.2%); Georgia (462, 47.0%); Qatar (480, 67.2%); Somalia (482, 92.4%); Jamaica (540, 49.9%); Kuwait (544, 52.1%); Lebanon (937, 94.2%); Lithuania (937, 35.4%); Algeria (1717, 78.9%); Mali (1738, 95.4%); Madagascar (2344, 95.6%); Peru (8103, 99.4%); Senegal (18241, 91.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): MP (14, 81.8%); ND (223, 35.0%); PA (248, 47.3%); SD (274, 57.5%); PR (385, 91.0%); ME (434, 68.3%); IN (441, 61.6%); MD (858, 88.6%); DC (1046, 86.1%); RI (1882, 80.2%); VA (1974, 86.8%); NM (2067, 97.1%); IL (2100, 79.7%); CT (2437, 77.9%); NE (3194, 91.6%); MA (3715, 77.5%); NJ (5023, 73.0%); NH (5952, 52.8%); WI (6248, 81.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (12, 0.0%); NS (14, 0.2%); NB (223, 37.0%); BC (1057, 24.8%); QC (2229, 76.0%)

Louisiana might be slowing down slightly, but is still speeding onward, with 1 in 80 of its population now confirmed or probable, and a case fatality rate of about 6%, suggesting somewhere between 1 in 13 and 1 in 3 of the population have actually been infected depending on what you take as the infection fatality rate.

Brazil saw over 50,000 new cases today, more than twice as many as on the same day last week.

Spain retroactively changed their methodology back to May 24, resulting in a drop of about 50,000 cases.

Toronto cleaned up their neighbourhood data a lot, reducing the number of unlocated cases from 2,199 to 693 out of 13,715; in the process a lot of cases were of course newly assigned to neighbourhoods, making their situations look worse. One new cases was added to my neighbourhood (Playter Estates-Danforth), bringing us to 15, still fifth safest in the city. That's 15 out of 7,804 residents, or maybe 200 including asymptomatic cases, of whom maybe 60 or 70 might still be active.

Active cases continue to decline in Toronto and Ontario, well into their second week. At the present rate, we might have fewer than 1,000 active cases in Toronto in two days, and are back to where we were around April 8th, but with twice as many hospital beds still occupied.

Today's chart shows how Canada's provinces are doing in controlling their active case counts.

2020-06-18

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (19→24), Brazil (30→27), U.S. (41→42), South Africa (40→43), California (49→46), Mexico (74→69), India (108→108), Iran (111→109), Israel (142→122), Indonesia (165→150), Romania (175→175), Poland (178→186), Turkey (182→190), Malta (328→376), Spain (488→488), Denmark (481→494), Norway (1147→809), Austria (908→908), South Korea (1057→985), Australia (1514→1452), China (10648→11910)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Mexico, Israel, Indonesia

Worse: Brazil, California, Iran

Better: U.S., India, Romania, Poland, Turkey

Much better: Alabama, South Africa, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14→14, 0.3%), Malaysia (53→42, 20.1%), Toronto (172→187, 38.8%), Singapore (212→191, 64.3%), Thailand (14→216, 5.6%), Louisiana (426→310, 47.5%), Italy (261→311, 28.3%), Japan (423→394, 9.5%), Ontario (293→497, 59.9%), Germany (805→681, 8.4%), Canada (1717→973, 88.1%), France (134465→1458, 51.5%), New York (6377→6142, 68.2%), U.K. (new→10904, 84.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (66): Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Holy See (2, 0.0%); Laos (5, 0.0%); Western Sahara (9, 0.0%); Brunei (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 5.6%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Croatia (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Lesotho (14, 50.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 1.6%); Montenegro (14, 4.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Uruguay (14, 5.0%); Andorra (19, 2.6%); San Marino (26, 22.2%); Taiwan (37, 1.5%); Maldives (49, 43.5%); Barbados (51, 9.6%); Burundi (54, 71.8%); Bhutan (63, 77.0%); Djibouti (82, 45.6%); Burma (92, 57.4%); Bahamas (112, 46.2%); Estonia (124, 18.7%); Uganda (124, 65.1%); Vietnam (126, 6.3%); Yemen (133, 66.7%); Cuba (150, 23.2%); Sri Lanka (150, 54.5%); Togo (165, 77.4%); Slovakia (194, 11.6%); Latvia (202, 46.4%); Burkina Faso (221, 11.5%); Jamaica (280, 48.4%); Tajikistan (304, 77.6%); Malawi (320, 77.9%); Kuwait (355, 52.6%); Switzerland (357, 2.3%); Lithuania (386, 34.9%); United Arab Emirates (412, 80.3%); Qatar (431, 67.8%); Paraguay (444, 89.3%); Guinea-Bissau (458, 61.2%); Hungary (464, 61.5%); Somalia (617, 94.2%); Algeria (845, 79.9%); Cyprus (874, 30.3%); Mongolia (2412, 56.6%); Senegal (3068, 91.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (4083, 98.4%); Cabo Verde (4876, 96.3%); Czechia (5911, 58.9%); Oman (6217, 95.1%); Philippines (10724, 99.2%); Belgium (13998, 66.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (23): MP (14, 81.8%); MS (197, 81.6%); ND (197, 34.9%); SD (224, 58.1%); ME (310, 66.7%); MN (312, 31.0%); PR (394, 91.0%); PA (400, 50.1%); NH (427, 54.0%); MA (459, 77.9%); WI (482, 77.2%); NC (498, 91.9%); DC (1052, 86.3%); IA (1064, 96.4%); MD (1185, 90.1%); VA (1247, 86.6%); CT (1261, 78.2%); IL (1698, 79.7%); IN (1796, 63.8%); NE (1808, 91.6%); VT (3757, 28.8%); CO (5655, 90.6%); NJ (6280, 73.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (13, 0.0%); MB (14, 4.1%); NS (14, 0.4%); QC (1679, 76.1%)

New Zealand reported another new case today imported by a traveller, bringing their active case count up to three.

New Zealand has had a total of 22 fatalities and 1,507 confirmed or probable cases, for a case fatality ratio of about 1.46%. Recent studies suggest that the infection fatality ratio is about 0.25%, so New Zealand demonstrates that you can bring COVID-19 under control through isolation measures even if you are missing five cases for every one that you identify.

By way of comparison, the ratio of presumed missed cases to identified ones (making the huge assumption that fatalities are being attributed correctly) is about 7 in Israel; 10 in South Africa, South Korea and Turkey; 15 in Austria and Poland; 20 in Brazil, China, Denmark, Germany, India, Iran and the United States; 25 in Romania; 35 in Canada, Indonesia and Spain; 60 in Italy, Mexico and Sweden.

Toronto's death toll reached four digits today, ending the day at 1,002. Our active case count dropped a little again, as it has every day since June 9; we now have 1,158 active confirmed/probable cases, declining at about 4% daily. We also had three consecutive days again of fewer than 100 new cases daily. Ontario likewise is down another few percent to 2,360. So, mostly good news.

On the personally scary side, there were five new cases in my neighbourhood (Playter Estates-Danforth), bringing us up to 14. Downsview-Roding-CFB also had five, none had more. For some perspective though, that takes us from being the neighbourhood with the fewest cases in the city, to the one that has the sixth fewest.

Today's chart stacks all the estimated current active case numbers in European countries. Countries where the number has increased in the past week are placed below those where it has decreased. Within a cohort, countries where the number is larger are placed below countries where it is smaller. So, Sweden has the most active cases among those countries whose active cases are still increasing (followed by Turkey, Belarus, Ukraine), and the U.K. has the most among those where it is decreasing (then Spain, France, Italy, Belgium).

Stay safe.

2020-06-17

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (17→18), Brazil (34→30), South Africa (37→39), U.S. (42→41), California (44→46), India (100→104), Iran (115→111), Indonesia (158→162), Israel (162→162), U.K. (164→173), Turkey (188→180), Poland (186→184), Romania (190→186), Malta (523→477), Spain (390→488), Denmark (408→493), South Korea (1190→1234), Norway (1340→1501), China (10912→9019), Thailand (6753→11263)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, Iran, Turkey, Romania

Worse: Poland

The same: U.S.

Better: Alabama, South Africa, California, India, Indonesia, Israel, U.K.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest (I apologize for all the missing data - I'm trying to shift to posting this earlier in the evening for the sake of my sleep, rather than waiting up for JHU data): New Zealand (14, no new data, 0.2%), Malaysia (153, no new data, 37.5%), Italy (259, no new data, 30.6%), Singapore (271, no new data, 72.5%), Toronto (239→303, 44.0%), Germany (319, no new data, 8.5%), Japan (335, no new data, 10.6%), Ontario (307→336, 63.0%), Austria (534, no new data, 4.2%), Australia (661, no new data, 8.2%), Louisiana (634→677, 42.5%), Canada (1566, no new data, 90.7%), Mexico (1989, no new data, 91.0%), France (5698, no new data, 53.3%), New York (7590→7300, 68.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (2, 0.0%); Holy See (4, 0.0%); Laos (7, 0.0%); Western Sahara (11, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Bahamas (14, 52.7%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Gambia (14, 41.7%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Montenegro (14, 0.9%); Nicaragua (14, 65.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Taiwan (14, 1.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Vietnam (14, 7.0%); Croatia (23, 0.7%); Andorra (27, 3.1%); San Marino (29, 27.1%); Uruguay (37, 10.9%); Equatorial Guinea (55, 37.9%); Burkina Faso (61, 11.5%); Maldives (61, 51.7%); Mongolia (71, 53.0%); Djibouti (85, 53.3%); Chad (92, 14.2%); Sri Lanka (108, 58.3%); Zambia (126, 36.5%); Uganda (134, 75.5%); Bhutan (156, 84.2%); Cuba (190, 25.1%); Lithuania (190, 36.7%); Burma (216, 65.5%); Latvia (222, 52.2%); Namibia (238, 88.3%); Niger (244, 5.7%); Kuwait (256, 54.3%); Tajikistan (293, 81.5%); Malawi (314, 79.9%); Comoros (392, 58.3%); Estonia (417, 21.3%); Hungary (483, 65.6%); United Arab Emirates (487, 84.3%); Madagascar (491, 93.6%); Switzerland (509, 2.0%); Luxembourg (520, 1.4%); Burundi (531, 96.8%); Haiti (549, 93.9%); Togo (556, 86.4%); Qatar (631, 71.7%); Guyana (644, 67.8%); Jamaica (1009, 52.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1063, 96.9%); Algeria (1178, 79.7%); Guinea (1410, 76.3%); Somalia (2028, 97.5%); Senegal (2206, 91.6%); Guinea-Bissau (2699, 61.2%); Paraguay (2947, 97.1%); Mali (3619, 99.2%); Belgium (6035, 66.5%); Peru (6423, 99.1%); Philippines (11873, 99.7%); Venezuela (12549, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (25): MP (14, 81.8%); MN (70, 28.7%); NH (133, 53.1%); MS (167, 72.9%); MT (201, 21.1%); ND (230, 37.6%); SD (276, 58.9%); MI (286, 70.0%); ID (406, 40.6%); MA (409, 78.3%); ME (444, 67.9%); PA (446, 52.8%); WI (516, 81.3%); NC (646, 80.0%); NE (846, 91.9%); CO (857, 90.5%); DE (1046, 79.0%); DC (1155, 88.9%); IL (1222, 80.3%); RI (1278, 81.5%); VA (1352, 87.9%); MD (1587, 92.0%); CT (2132, 78.8%); NJ (2794, 73.4%); NM (17967, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); MB (14, 2.6%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%); BC (279, 24.0%); QC (1204, 77.0%)

Today's chart breaks down the Asia/Oceania component of yesterday's global survey of active cases, and illustrates how almost all of the currently active confirmed or probable cases are in Fiji, India, Papua New Guinea, and Russia, although of course the per capita impact may be more severe in some smaller countries.

Mexican president Obrador announced today that of about 10,000 Mexican migrant farmworkers in Canada, 300 have contracted COVID-19 and 2 have died. The Globe and Mail reported that approximately 600 foreign migrant farmworkers (not just from Mexico) had contracted COVID-19 in Ontario. That's only 2% of the total number of cases, but there are alarming parallels with the foreign worker situation in Singapore. Here too, the workers are forced to live in segregated housing of poor quality that facilitates the transmission of disease. There were earlier reports that fewer workers than usual were in Canada this season, but it's hard to say what usual is, because of a lack of published statistics about this embarrassing part of our society.

The CBC portrays the issue with surprising anti-worker bias, saying that it is necessary for farmers to hire foreign workers because Canadian workers are unavailable. That may narrowly speaking be true, in that there are not enough Canadians willing to learn a complex menial skill and work in a physically demanding environment at minimum wage. And restructuring the economy so that farmworkers could be paid a wage that would attract local labour would be a monumental effort, but surely no more so than the current collection of government COVID-19 funding plans.

I suspect the reduced availability of skilled labourers is already having an impact at the grocery store: I had to throw away half of what I bought last weekend at the market. The manager warned me that it wasn't very good, and that she had been having trouble getting good produce due to social distancing rules at the food (wholesale) terminal: you get a random box, and if you don't like it, you wait an hour for the next random box. It's looking to me as though those rotten random samples are actually representative of what is being picked by people who don't know what they're doing.

I wish I'd planted more in my vegetable garden this year, but am glad that I've at least got something.

There were fewer new cases in Toronto today (70) than yesterday (102) for the first time four days. Our active numbers decreased a little faster today than yesterday, from 1,349 to 1,315. Ontario was down a little less than yesterday, to 2,585 active cases. Both are at about 45% of their peak and gradually declining.

Ten new cases (a recent record) in Mount Olive-Silverstone-Jamestown today, and eight in Islington-City Centre West. Four each in Willowridge-Martingrove-Richview and Yorkdale-Glen Park, and fewer than that in every other Toronto neighbourhood (and none in ours).

Stay safe.

2020-06-16

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (17→18), Brazil (34→30), South Africa (37→39), U.S. (42→41), California (44→46), India (100→104), Iran (115→111), Indonesia (158→162), Israel (162→162), U.K. (164→173), Turkey (188→180), Poland (186→184), Romania (190→186), Malta (523→477), Spain (390→488), Denmark (408→493), South Korea (1190→1234), Norway (1340→1501), China (10912→9019), Thailand (6753→11263)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, Iran, Turkey, Romania

Worse: Poland

The same: U.S.

Better: Alabama, South Africa, California, India, Indonesia, Israel, U.K.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest (I apologize for all the missing data - I'm trying to shift to posting this earlier in the evening for the sake of my sleep, rather than waiting up for JHU data): New Zealand (14, no new data, 0.2%), Malaysia (153, no new data, 37.5%), Italy (259, no new data, 30.6%), Singapore (271, no new data, 72.5%), Toronto (239→303, 44.0%), Germany (319, no new data, 8.5%), Japan (335, no new data, 10.6%), Ontario (307→336, 63.0%), Austria (534, no new data, 4.2%), Australia (661, no new data, 8.2%), Louisiana (634→677, 42.5%), Canada (1566, no new data, 90.7%), Mexico (1989, no new data, 91.0%), France (5698, no new data, 53.3%), New York (7590→7300, 68.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (2, 0.0%); Holy See (4, 0.0%); Laos (7, 0.0%); Western Sahara (11, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Bahamas (14, 52.7%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Gambia (14, 41.7%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Montenegro (14, 0.9%); Nicaragua (14, 65.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Taiwan (14, 1.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Vietnam (14, 7.0%); Croatia (23, 0.7%); Andorra (27, 3.1%); San Marino (29, 27.1%); Uruguay (37, 10.9%); Equatorial Guinea (55, 37.9%); Burkina Faso (61, 11.5%); Maldives (61, 51.7%); Mongolia (71, 53.0%); Djibouti (85, 53.3%); Chad (92, 14.2%); Sri Lanka (108, 58.3%); Zambia (126, 36.5%); Uganda (134, 75.5%); Bhutan (156, 84.2%); Cuba (190, 25.1%); Lithuania (190, 36.7%); Burma (216, 65.5%); Latvia (222, 52.2%); Namibia (238, 88.3%); Niger (244, 5.7%); Kuwait (256, 54.3%); Tajikistan (293, 81.5%); Malawi (314, 79.9%); Comoros (392, 58.3%); Estonia (417, 21.3%); Hungary (483, 65.6%); United Arab Emirates (487, 84.3%); Madagascar (491, 93.6%); Switzerland (509, 2.0%); Luxembourg (520, 1.4%); Burundi (531, 96.8%); Haiti (549, 93.9%); Togo (556, 86.4%); Qatar (631, 71.7%); Guyana (644, 67.8%); Jamaica (1009, 52.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1063, 96.9%); Algeria (1178, 79.7%); Guinea (1410, 76.3%); Somalia (2028, 97.5%); Senegal (2206, 91.6%); Guinea-Bissau (2699, 61.2%); Paraguay (2947, 97.1%); Mali (3619, 99.2%); Belgium (6035, 66.5%); Peru (6423, 99.1%); Philippines (11873, 99.7%); Venezuela (12549, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (25): MP (14, 81.8%); MN (70, 28.7%); NH (133, 53.1%); MS (167, 72.9%); MT (201, 21.1%); ND (230, 37.6%); SD (276, 58.9%); MI (286, 70.0%); ID (406, 40.6%); MA (409, 78.3%); ME (444, 67.9%); PA (446, 52.8%); WI (516, 81.3%); NC (646, 80.0%); NE (846, 91.9%); CO (857, 90.5%); DE (1046, 79.0%); DC (1155, 88.9%); IL (1222, 80.3%); RI (1278, 81.5%); VA (1352, 87.9%); MD (1587, 92.0%); CT (2132, 78.8%); NJ (2794, 73.4%); NM (17967, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); MB (14, 2.6%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%); BC (279, 24.0%); QC (1204, 77.0%)

Today's chart breaks down the Asia/Oceania component of yesterday's global survey of active cases, and illustrates how almost all of the currently active confirmed or probable cases are in Fiji, India, Papua New Guinea, and Russia, although of course the per capita impact may be more severe in some smaller countries.

Mexican president Obrador announced today that of about 10,000 Mexican migrant farmworkers in Canada, 300 have contracted COVID-19 and 2 have died. The Globe and Mail reported that approximately 600 foreign migrant farmworkers (not just from Mexico) had contracted COVID-19 in Ontario. That's only 2% of the total number of cases, but there are alarming parallels with the foreign worker situation in Singapore. Here too, the workers are forced to live in segregated housing of poor quality that facilitates the transmission of disease. There were earlier reports that fewer workers than usual were in Canada this season, but it's hard to say what usual is, because of a lack of published statistics about this embarrassing part of our society.

The CBC portrays the issue with surprising anti-worker bias, saying that it is necessary for farmers to hire foreign workers because Canadian workers are unavailable. That may narrowly speaking be true, in that there are not enough Canadians willing to learn a complex menial skill and work in a physically demanding environment at minimum wage. And restructuring the economy so that farmworkers could be paid a wage that would attract local labour would be a monumental effort, but surely no more so than the current collection of government COVID-19 funding plans.

I suspect the reduced availability of skilled labourers is already having an impact at the grocery store: I had to throw away half of what I bought last weekend at the market. The manager warned me that it wasn't very good, and that she had been having trouble getting good produce due to social distancing rules at the food (wholesale) terminal: you get a random box, and if you don't like it, you wait an hour for the next random box. It's looking to me as though those rotten random samples are actually representative of what is being picked by people who don't know what they're doing.

I wish I'd planted more in my vegetable garden this year, but am glad that I've at least got something.

There were fewer new cases in Toronto today (70) than yesterday (102) for the first time four days. Our active numbers decreased a little faster today than yesterday, from 1,349 to 1,315. Ontario was down a little less than yesterday, to 2,585 active cases. Both are at about 45% of their peak and gradually declining.

Ten new cases (a recent record) in Mount Olive-Silverstone-Jamestown today, and eight in Islington-City Centre West. Four each in Willowridge-Martingrove-Richview and Yorkdale-Glen Park, and fewer than that in every other Toronto neighbourhood (and none in ours).

Stay safe.

2020-06-15

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (20→17), Brazil (30→34), South Africa (36→37), U.S. (43→42), California (46→44), India (101→100), Iran (115→115), Indonesia (156→158), Israel (162→162), U.K. (164→164), Poland (189→186), Turkey (210→188), Romania (177→190), Spain (332→390), Denmark (419→408), Malta (372→523), South Korea (1036→1190), Norway (1535→1340), Thailand (5191→6753), China (13814→10912)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Turkey

Worse: California, Poland

The same: U.S., India

Better: South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, Israel, U.K., Romania

Much better: Brazil, Spain

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (6→14, 0.2%), Malaysia (151→153, 37.5%), Toronto (152→239, 45.2%), Italy (231→259, 30.6%), Singapore (329→271, 72.5%), Ontario (220→307, 63.7%), Germany (510→319, 8.5%), Japan (368→335, 10.6%), Austria (214→534, 4.2%), Louisiana (new→634, 39.7%), Australia (255→661, 8.2%), Canada (1490→1566, 90.7%), Mexico (new→1989, 91.0%), France (1035→5698, 53.3%), New York (4376→7590, 68.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (2, 0.0%); Holy See (4, 0.0%); Laos (7, 0.0%); Western Sahara (11, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Bahamas (14, 52.7%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Gambia (14, 41.7%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Montenegro (14, 0.9%); Nicaragua (14, 65.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Taiwan (14, 1.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Vietnam (14, 7.0%); Croatia (23, 0.7%); Andorra (27, 3.1%); San Marino (29, 27.1%); Uruguay (37, 10.9%); Equatorial Guinea (55, 37.9%); Burkina Faso (61, 11.5%); Maldives (61, 51.7%); Mongolia (71, 53.0%); Djibouti (85, 53.3%); Chad (92, 14.2%); Sri Lanka (108, 58.3%); Zambia (126, 36.5%); Uganda (134, 75.5%); Bhutan (156, 84.2%); Cuba (190, 25.1%); Lithuania (190, 36.7%); Burma (216, 65.5%); Latvia (222, 52.2%); Namibia (238, 88.3%); Niger (244, 5.7%); Kuwait (256, 54.3%); Tajikistan (293, 81.5%); Malawi (314, 79.9%); Comoros (392, 58.3%); Estonia (417, 21.3%); Hungary (483, 65.6%); United Arab Emirates (487, 84.3%); Madagascar (491, 93.6%); Switzerland (509, 2.0%); Luxembourg (520, 1.4%); Burundi (531, 96.8%); Haiti (549, 93.9%); Togo (556, 86.4%); Qatar (631, 71.7%); Guyana (644, 67.8%); Jamaica (1009, 52.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1063, 96.9%); Algeria (1178, 79.7%); Guinea (1410, 76.3%); Somalia (2028, 97.5%); Senegal (2206, 91.6%); Guinea-Bissau (2699, 61.2%); Paraguay (2947, 97.1%); Mali (3619, 99.2%); Belgium (6035, 66.5%); Peru (6423, 99.1%); Philippines (11873, 99.7%); Venezuela (12549, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): MP (14, 81.8%); MN (78, 31.1%); NH (111, 53.1%); ID (194, 38.8%); ND (202, 39.2%); MS (205, 66.7%); MI (289, 69.2%); PA (342, 55.7%); WI (424, 81.7%); CO (657, 90.3%); SD (757, 64.0%); MD (1094, 93.1%); VA (1190, 88.7%); DE (1216, 78.9%); RI (1275, 81.8%); IL (1323, 81.4%); NE (1630, 92.7%); DC (1750, 89.0%); NJ (2064, 73.7%); MA (2786, 86.0%); CT (4823, 79.2%); KY (7647, 95.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); BC (14, 25.4%); NB (14, 39.7%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (25, 0.6%); MB (27, 2.6%); QC (980, 77.4%)

Louisiana is temporarily off the pre-peak list because they update their recovery counts only once a week, and just added over 3,000 recoveries overnight.

Singapore announced that it would be proceeding to phase two of its reopening plans on Friday, when most businesses can reopen subject to distancing rules. They have a little over 10,000 active cases now (about 40th in the world on a list headed by the U.S., Brazil, the U.K., Russia and India), but the number has been gradually declining over the past two weeks.

New Zealand has had two new related cases of COVID-19, when two residents recently brought it back with them from the U.K. These are the first new cases there in 24 days; let's see how well these new cases manage to be contained.

Toronto's active case count dropped for the seventh day in a row, but by the smallest amount during the week, a scant 18 cases to 1,349. New cases have been rising daily now for the fourth day, working their way up from 86 to 102. If the rate of transmission were constant, they would be dropping, not rising, as the number of active cases decreased. That means that COVID-19 is spreading faster now than it was several days ago.

The story in Ontario is similar. Eight days of active case drops, and today's the lowest in a week, 79 cases to 2,630. There's less of a trend though with new cases in Ontario, somewhat downward toward the end of the week compared to the beginning.

Of Toronto's 140 neighbourhoods, only four had 5 new cases: Victoria Village, and three others in the northwest. Four others had 4 cases: South Parkdale, Thorncliffe Park, and two in the northwest. No new cases in our neighbourhood in a week and a half, touch wood.

Today's chart shows a much more macro view of COVID-19, graphing active cases around the world by continental region since the start of the pandemic.

Stay safe.

2020-06-14

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (5→5), Alabama (24→20), Brazil (23→30), South Africa (41→36), U.S. (50→43), California (46→46), Mexico (64→64), India (101→101), Iran (121→115), Indonesia (139→156), Israel (186→162), U.K. (180→164), Romania (199→177), Poland (199→189), Turkey (239→210), Malta (371→372), Denmark (538→419), South Korea (983→1036), Norway (1185→1535), Thailand (5191→5191), China (19912→13814)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, South Africa, U.S., Iran, Israel, U.K., Romania, Poland, Turkey

Better: Louisiana, California, Mexico, India

Much better: Brazil, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (7→6, 0.0%), Malaysia (149→151, 38.0%), Toronto (99→152, 45.8%), Austria (254→214, 4.0%), Ontario (222→220, 64.4%), Italy (244→231, 31.1%), Australia (207→255, 8.0%), Singapore (385→329, 76.4%), Japan (207→368, 10.5%), Germany (235→510, 9.1%), France (1116→1035, 53.4%), Canada (1573→1490, 91.5%), New York (4260→4376, 68.8%), Spain (11208→6761, 64.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (3, 0.0%); Holy See (5, 0.0%); Laos (8, 0.0%); Western Sahara (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Barbados (14, 11.5%); Belize (14, 12.7%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cameroon (14, 100.0%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Estonia (14, 22.6%); Gambia (14, 25.0%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Montenegro (14, 0.5%); Namibia (14, 93.3%); Nicaragua (14, 65.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Taiwan (14, 1.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 6.6%); Andorra (22, 4.9%); Uruguay (30, 12.2%); Burkina Faso (32, 13.1%); Equatorial Guinea (55, 37.9%); Finland (61, 26.9%); Mongolia (69, 57.0%); Croatia (74, 1.0%); Djibouti (93, 61.6%); Chad (107, 14.2%); Guyana (115, 67.8%); Zambia (116, 35.8%); Latvia (126, 52.2%); Niger (126, 5.7%); Sri Lanka (129, 62.4%); Luxembourg (136, 1.4%); Bhutan (142, 81.8%); Vietnam (142, 7.0%); San Marino (151, 46.5%); Uganda (156, 79.9%); Tunisia (159, 9.1%); Maldives (174, 70.6%); Togo (186, 86.3%); Malawi (205, 88.1%); Cuba (214, 25.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (239, 74.4%); Kuwait (268, 56.0%); Tajikistan (280, 83.2%); Lithuania (291, 36.4%); Gabon (302, 81.5%); Hungary (341, 65.4%); Bahamas (379, 52.7%); United Arab Emirates (380, 86.3%); Comoros (392, 58.3%); Haiti (393, 87.2%); Kyrgyzstan (470, 75.3%); Central African Republic (667, 93.5%); Algeria (675, 80.5%); Qatar (675, 73.4%); Somalia (1994, 98.5%); Guinea (2012, 75.5%); Madagascar (2185, 96.8%); Mali (2942, 97.0%); Senegal (3239, 91.7%); Belgium (5144, 66.6%); Jamaica (5571, 52.1%); Philippines (6294, 99.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (16865, 98.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (23): MP (14, 81.8%); VI (14, 6.8%); MN (105, 34.6%); ID (136, 38.8%); NH (141, 58.0%); GU (159, 13.2%); PA (248, 55.5%); ND (250, 39.7%); MI (314, 69.1%); WI (512, 83.3%); RI (743, 80.1%); SD (747, 66.3%); CO (795, 91.2%); MD (940, 93.4%); VA (975, 89.6%); NE (1109, 93.5%); DE (1192, 79.0%); IL (1233, 81.9%); IN (1574, 65.2%); NJ (1627, 73.9%); DC (1691, 89.3%); MA (2407, 85.8%); KS (2623, 80.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); MB (14, 4.1%); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.6%); NB (145, 35.6%); QC (801, 78.0%)

Today's chart shows a classic view of my regions of interest.

There are probably three quarters of a million active cases among the over two million confirmed and probable cases in the United States; and the active cases are still inching up at about 1% daily. If the fatality rate of the disease ends up being 1%, then the current case fatality rate of 5% suggests that another three million people, or about 1% of the national population, is infected without having it confirmed by a test.

Or maybe they are just getting tested soon after exposure, when a recent Johns Hopkins study showed that the standard RT-PCR test was more likely than not to give them a false negative result.

New Brunswick reported no new cases for the first time in its second wave, and has rejoined the post-peak list with 26 active cases all stemming from one traveller.

Ontario had a full week of consecutive decline in active cases for the first time ever. We now have 2,709 cases.

There has been a small outbreak of 6 new cases in Toronto's downtown Moss Park neighbourhood, which was the hardest hit today. All remaining neighbourhoods with 4 or more new cases are in the city's northwest.

Toronto had its sixth consecutive decline in active cases, something that hasn't happened since Mother's Day. We are now down to 1,367 cases, which is about where we were on April 10th. On the one hand, we have made great progress this week and should be proud of it. On the other hand, we still have more than a thousand cases, are confirming almost a hundred new ones every day, and are probably failing to identify close to a thousand new asymptomatic cases every day. We are not at the point where we can go from everyone having to be vigilant and cautious to where a new case is newsworthy like that doctor in New Brunswick. At the current rate, it'll take us five months to eradicate COVID-19 from the city, and maybe three months before we can take a more contact-tracing rather than lockdown approach to fighting the pandemic. So let's see what we can do to reduce infection more now so that we can get back to normal sooner.

Stay safe.

2020-06-13

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (5→5), Brazil (26→23), Alabama (34→24), South Africa (46→41), California (53→46), U.S. (50→50), Sweden (60→60), Mexico (60→64), India (103→101), Iran (125→121), Indonesia (135→139), Israel (186→186), Poland (203→199), Romania (230→199), Malta (346→371), South Korea (901→983), Norway (1185→1185), China (53502→19912)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, South Africa, California, Iran, Poland, Romania

Worse: Brazil, India

Better: Louisiana, U.S., Sweden, Mexico, Indonesia, Israel, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (8→7, 0.0%), Toronto (99→99, 47.9%), Malaysia (100→149, 39.1%), Australia (198→207, 8.0%), Japan (234→207, 10.2%), Ontario (240→222, 68.3%), Germany (296→235, 8.9%), Italy (243→244, 32.5%), Austria (217→254, 4.2%), Denmark (232→284, 13.2%), Singapore (444→385, 79.0%), Turkey (267→963, 31.1%), France (2515→1116, 53.1%), Canada (1374→1573, 92.2%), Thailand (441→1855, 6.1%), New York (4248→4260, 68.9%), U.K. (2226→9351, 84.9%), Spain (new→11208, 64.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Montenegro, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (4, 0.0%); Holy See (6, 0.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (8, 0.0%); Laos (9, 0.0%); Western Sahara (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Belize (14, 12.7%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 86.0%); Gambia (14, 25.0%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Nicaragua (14, 65.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Taiwan (14, 1.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Andorra (20, 4.9%); Burkina Faso (29, 12.5%); Uruguay (32, 13.2%); Vietnam (33, 7.0%); Equatorial Guinea (55, 37.9%); Mongolia (57, 57.0%); Finland (60, 26.1%); Bahamas (100, 52.7%); Djibouti (104, 66.3%); Comoros (105, 58.3%); San Marino (106, 46.5%); Sri Lanka (118, 65.6%); Niger (119, 6.5%); Croatia (126, 0.9%); Guyana (129, 69.0%); Chad (132, 14.5%); Latvia (133, 52.2%); Congo (Brazzaville) (134, 82.6%); Uganda (136, 80.1%); Malawi (151, 84.3%); Kyrgyzstan (152, 73.9%); Zimbabwe (155, 85.4%); Tunisia (163, 9.3%); Lithuania (165, 37.2%); Luxembourg (179, 1.4%); Zambia (184, 38.7%); Maldives (227, 75.9%); Kuwait (278, 58.7%); Tajikistan (288, 86.2%); Hungary (290, 65.7%); United Arab Emirates (394, 88.6%); West Bank and Gaza (479, 32.6%); Gabon (502, 81.5%); Cuba (528, 27.2%); South Sudan (565, 94.8%); Panama (571, 81.6%); Namibia (805, 98.3%); Guinea (845, 73.9%); Qatar (881, 74.9%); Algeria (1188, 83.2%); Madagascar (1330, 95.4%); Jamaica (1545, 52.6%); Togo (1988, 89.2%); Peru (2161, 96.7%); Sudan (3183, 97.7%); Central African Republic (3762, 96.2%); Haiti (6271, 93.7%); Belgium (10081, 66.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (23): GU (14, 13.2%); MP (14, 81.8%); VI (14, 6.8%); NH (124, 58.9%); ID (139, 40.0%); PA (203, 55.1%); MI (284, 68.1%); ND (381, 40.4%); WI (464, 84.6%); IN (599, 64.6%); SD (682, 66.8%); VA (863, 90.1%); RI (902, 81.5%); CO (1047, 92.8%); NE (1129, 94.6%); MD (1151, 94.2%); IL (1347, 82.5%); ME (1566, 70.7%); DE (1926, 79.6%); NJ (2023, 74.5%); DC (2143, 89.4%); MA (3296, 86.5%); WV (3437, 94.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (25, 0.6%); MB (79, 3.6%); QC (751, 78.9%)

Louisiana stays at 5 days to 1% for the third day in a row, and is at least slowing down in their progress. It's hard to say which is doing worst among the United States now: Louisiana or Connecticut. Connecticut has a larger number of active cases, both in absolute and per capita terms, but is growing so slowly it wouldn't double for more than four months. Louisiana has somewhat fewer cases, but that number is doubling every eight days. At the current rate, Louisiana will be clearly worse than Connecticut in five days.

The other U.S. states that have low days-to-1% numbers are Arizona (15), Iowa (18), Alabama and Mississippi (20), the Carolinas (26), Arkansas (28). Beyond that, it's UT GA in the 30s, FL MN CA TX NV TN in the 40s, NM OK in the 60s. The number of U.S. states and territories whose active case numbers are trending downward has itself come down bumpily over the past six days from 28 to the current 23 as more areas see increases in active cases.

Texas in particular, currently at 46 days to 1% confirmed cases, has been racing toward that figure over the last five days: 71, 65, 61, 50, 46. Their best day was 19 days ago, when 1% was 117 days away. Now though they are adding more than a thousand (net) active cases to their total every day, and are up now to 27,519 from under 20,000 just two weeks ago.

Today's chart shows how each U.S. state is doing in managing active case numbers.

Toronto's active case count dropped for the fifth consecutive day to 1,429. We had a second consecutive day of less than 100 new cases (86 yesterday, 87 today), which hasn't happened since early April. The rate of decrease is slowing down, but it's too soon to say why. The fact that the new case counts are decreasing is good news; the other factors are the number of recoveries (which depend on who got infected a couple of weeks ago, and how they're doing now) and deaths (which have been in the single digits for five days). If I'd seen Mayor John Tory at his St. Lawrence Market photo op this morning, I would have told him he was doing a good job. I couldn't get in in time though, because they were much stricter than usual about limiting access to the farmer's market building.

It's a similar story in Ontario, where we are down to 2,947 active cases, and I don't think we've been below 3,000 since the beginning of April either.

Stay safe.

2020-06-12

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (5→5), Brazil (26→26), Alabama (34→34), South Africa (48→46), U.S. (56→50), California (54→53), Mexico (67→60), Sweden (60→60), India (104→103), Iran (129→125), Indonesia (141→135), Israel (186→186), Poland (173→203), Romania (279→230), Malta (471→346), Spain (475→367), South Korea (946→901), Norway (1185→1185), China (71332→53502)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Mexico, Iran, Indonesia, Romania, Malta

Worse: South Africa

The same: California, India

Better: Louisiana, Brazil, Alabama, Sweden, Israel

Much better: Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (10→8, 0.0%), Toronto (126→99, 48.9%), Malaysia (124→100, 43.0%), Australia (395→198, 8.2%), Austria (772→217, 4.3%), Denmark (162→232, 13.3%), Japan (218→234, 10.9%), Ontario (306→240, 70.1%), Italy (358→243, 34.3%), Turkey (138→267, 30.4%), Germany (421→296, 9.5%), Thailand (new→441, 5.8%), Singapore (959→444, 81.9%), Canada (2256→1374, 92.6%), U.K. (1927→2226, 84.7%), France (new→2515, 54.0%), New York (4666→4248, 69.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Montenegro, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (5, 0.0%); Holy See (7, 0.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (9, 0.0%); Laos (10, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Bhutan (14, 94.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 6.6%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Iceland (14, 0.3%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 33.3%); Andorra (17, 4.9%); Croatia (23, 0.8%); Vietnam (25, 6.3%); Uruguay (28, 14.5%); Burkina Faso (45, 15.0%); Gambia (51, 41.7%); Taiwan (51, 1.9%); Equatorial Guinea (55, 37.9%); Mongolia (57, 57.0%); Finland (59, 25.5%); Nicaragua (63, 65.0%); Chad (76, 16.2%); Zambia (82, 33.0%); Niger (84, 6.3%); Malawi (89, 72.8%); San Marino (95, 46.5%); Bahamas (100, 52.7%); Djibouti (112, 70.0%); Sri Lanka (120, 71.1%); Tunisia (137, 9.1%); Namibia (152, 91.7%); Kyrgyzstan (154, 76.1%); Comoros (165, 62.1%); Guyana (186, 71.3%); Panama (199, 70.0%); Lithuania (211, 38.6%); Latvia (220, 58.5%); Luxembourg (223, 1.2%); Hungary (261, 67.1%); Kuwait (294, 60.8%); Uganda (309, 91.6%); Maldives (364, 80.2%); Switzerland (364, 2.3%); South Sudan (386, 92.5%); Kazakhstan (421, 86.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (439, 82.6%); United Arab Emirates (477, 90.6%); Tajikistan (551, 89.4%); Algeria (731, 83.0%); Zimbabwe (999, 87.6%); Qatar (1079, 75.3%); Togo (1413, 88.7%); Haiti (1444, 93.3%); Peru (1678, 95.6%); Slovakia (2256, 12.7%); Cuba (3076, 29.1%); Belgium (9931, 66.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (21): GU (14, 12.1%); VI (14, 6.8%); ND (106, 42.1%); ME (188, 72.3%); ID (249, 43.5%); NH (315, 66.6%); SD (320, 65.5%); PA (321, 57.9%); IN (480, 65.0%); VA (574, 90.7%); WI (593, 87.3%); MD (1456, 94.5%); NE (1485, 96.0%); RI (1512, 83.8%); IL (1751, 83.3%); NJ (1901, 74.7%); WV (2417, 93.4%); MA (6018, 87.2%); CO (6054, 94.7%); CT (7835, 80.4%); DE (50674, 81.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.9%); MB (16, 2.6%); QC (644, 79.7%)

British Columbia has fallen off the post-peak list again, as its active case numbers start to slowly drift back upward. It's done this a few times before, and I hope it is a brief relapse. Saskatchewan has been trending back upward for two days and Alberta for five. New Brunswick, which had managed to get down to zero active cases, is up to 28 active cases now after importing a single case from Quebec.

Today's chart shows which way each Canadian province is trending in active cases.

Torontonians aged 20-29 are back at the top of the list, with 17 new cases of the city's total of 86.

All Toronto neighbourhoods outside of the northwestern corner had fewer than three cases; six northwestern neighbourhoods had a total of 32 among them. Total active cases are down again for a fourth day, from 2,017 four days ago to 1,459 now, back to where we were on May 18, and the decline is accelerating.

Toronto has started publishing a lot of information about testing, and they are including historical information going back to the start of the pandemic.

At the beginning, our positive test rate was as high as 14%, and it's gradually fallen to about 2%. By way of comparison, it's about 6% in the United States, and a literally incredible 95% in Mexico. A low positivity rate can mean either just that a lot of people (contacts, or people who have reason to be worried that they might have been exposed) are being tested, or that there are genuinely few people that are infected in the population.

24% of tests are completed within 24 hours and 63% within 48 hours, which is below (worse than) the standards that the city has established for turnaround time. 93% of positive patients are being contacted within 24 hours of diagnosis. "Percent of newly reported contacts attempted to be reached within 24 hours" is apparently 100%, but it's unclear to me whether that is contacts of patients or the patients themselves, and what counts as an attempt to contact.

Toronto mentions that number of tests being performed per capita is one of the key indicators for the province's reopening framework, but does not give this number. We can infer it though from the current positivity rate and number of new cases: it looks like Toronto is testing about 5,500 people per day. This would be about 1,800 per million inhabitants per day, compared to about 2,100 for Russia, 1,900 for Ontario, 1,400 for the U.S.A., 1,200 for the U.K., 1,000 for Australia, 900 for Italy, 700 for Singapore or Sweden, 100 for India, or 30 for Mexico.

I apologize for being more Toronto-centric even than usual tonight. The new data gave me a lot to think about, and it also feels as though Toronto is at another cusp that is worth documenting. We're nowhere near bringing COVID-19 under control locally, but things have been looking better here in a way that they aren't in some other parts of the world.

Stay safe.

2020-06-11

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (51→34), South Africa (51→48), California (53→54), U.S. (57→56), Sweden (60→60), Mexico (72→67), India (103→104), Indonesia (149→141), Poland (151→173), Israel (186→186), Malta (647→471), Spain (568→475), France (587→571), South Korea (1043→946), Norway (1101→1185), Thailand (3202→5179)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Mexico, Indonesia

Worse: South Africa

The same: U.S.

Better: California, Sweden, India, Israel

Much better: Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (10, no new data, 0.0%), Malaysia (124, no new data, 46.5%), Toronto (563→126, 51.6%), Turkey (138, no new data, 30.6%), Denmark (162, no new data, 13.5%), Japan (218, no new data, 11.4%), China (289, no new data, 0.2%), Ontario (1083→306, 71.7%), Italy (358, no new data, 37.5%), Australia (395, no new data, 8.9%), Germany (421, no new data, 9.8%), Brazil (442, no new data, 85.9%), Louisiana (425→530, 42.1%), Austria (772, no new data, 4.5%), Singapore (959, no new data, 86.3%), U.K. (1927, no new data, 84.9%), Canada (2256, no new data, 94.2%), Romania (2453, no new data, 62.6%), Iran (3786, no new data, 82.7%), New York (5585→4666, 69.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Montenegro, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (7, 0.0%); Holy See (9, 0.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (11, 0.0%); Laos (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 6.6%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 33.3%); Vietnam (21, 7.6%); Croatia (25, 1.2%); Taiwan (27, 1.9%); Andorra (50, 9.9%); Uruguay (52, 21.8%); Chad (59, 17.0%); Nicaragua (63, 65.0%); Slovakia (118, 12.2%); Niger (119, 6.5%); San Marino (135, 53.9%); Sri Lanka (136, 77.7%); Bahamas (138, 54.9%); Comoros (145, 61.2%); Guyana (146, 79.3%); Kyrgyzstan (154, 79.8%); Tunisia (182, 10.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (233, 85.8%); Equatorial Guinea (248, 60.9%); Djibouti (295, 87.0%); Luxembourg (306, 1.6%); Maldives (312, 83.3%); Kuwait (325, 64.8%); Lithuania (333, 39.7%); Zimbabwe (349, 83.7%); Georgia (353, 41.6%); Guinea-Bissau (355, 61.8%); Mongolia (409, 75.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (439, 82.6%); Kazakhstan (452, 84.9%); Jordan (516, 77.2%); Hungary (784, 71.6%); Bahrain (786, 91.2%); Latvia (869, 63.4%); Tajikistan (1086, 93.3%); Jamaica (1129, 52.3%); United Arab Emirates (1281, 96.1%); Burma (1561, 62.2%); Qatar (2098, 78.2%); Algeria (2156, 84.7%); Serbia (2350, 8.1%); Sudan (3137, 96.2%); Gabon (3606, 90.6%); Belgium (7630, 67.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): VI (14, 6.8%); GU (66, 11.0%); ND (126, 44.6%); ME (150, 70.7%); MS (173, 79.4%); MN (226, 56.4%); SD (269, 66.6%); ID (333, 44.7%); NH (340, 69.7%); IN (410, 65.8%); VA (506, 91.9%); NC (677, 94.1%); DC (839, 90.8%); WI (921, 89.2%); NE (939, 94.9%); DE (1071, 81.2%); PA (1532, 62.8%); CT (1686, 79.9%); NJ (2012, 75.3%); MD (3067, 96.8%); MA (3453, 87.4%); IL (3536, 84.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.9%); MB (42, 3.6%); BC (629, 25.5%); QC (644, 80.8%)

There were only two new cases in Toronto who were in their 20s today, after a few days of speculation as to why that demographic was seeing so many new cases now. Over the course of the past week, they've still been the biggest group, at 19.8%.

Thorncliffe Park was the worst neighbourhood in Toronto today. Usually they're around the top of the bottom quartile, but today they had nine new cases, with the next three having 16 cases among them all being in the hardest hit northwestern corner of the city.

The fact that only four neighbourhoods had five or more new cases today though contributed to a city total of only 114 cases; the last time we had so few was almost a month ago, May 18. Our active total drops from 1,683 to 1,540, also about where it was May 18.

There was a comparable drop in Ontario, where active cases sank from 3,486 to 3,172, with only 203 new cases reported. Of the 3,172, an anagrammatic 1,273 (40%) are staff or residents in nursing homes. The new cases per active case are down below 6%, which is a level that can support a steady decline in the total active cases.

This is looking good, but as today's chart shows, we've been down this curve twice before. Let's hope the third time's the charm.

Stay safe.

2020-06-10

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: South Africa (49→51), California (53→53), U.S. (54→57), Sweden (60→60), Mexico (77→72), India (100→103), Indonesia (155→149), Poland (129→151), Israel (190→186), Spain (558→568), France (587→587), Malta (738→647), South Korea (972→1043), Norway (1100→1101), Thailand (3536→3202)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Mexico, Indonesia, Israel

Better: South Africa, California, U.S., India

Much better: Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (11→10, 0.0%), Malaysia (147→124, 46.5%), Turkey (151→138, 30.6%), Denmark (218→162, 13.5%), Japan (495→218, 11.4%), China (245→289, 0.2%), Italy (377→358, 37.5%), Australia (403→395, 8.9%), Germany (2050→421, 9.8%), Louisiana (448→425, 39.8%), Brazil (437→442, 85.9%), Toronto (new→563, 56.4%), Austria (new→772, 4.5%), Singapore (1533→959, 86.3%), Ontario (13061→1083, 75.9%), Alabama (new→1364, 83.2%), U.K. (1820→1927, 84.9%), Canada (1774→2256, 94.2%), Romania (1058→2453, 62.6%), Iran (5422→3786, 82.7%), New York (5323→5585, 69.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Montenegro, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (7, 0.0%); Holy See (9, 0.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (11, 0.0%); Laos (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 6.6%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 33.3%); Vietnam (21, 7.6%); Croatia (25, 1.2%); Taiwan (27, 1.9%); Andorra (50, 9.9%); Uruguay (52, 21.8%); Chad (59, 17.0%); Nicaragua (63, 65.0%); Slovakia (118, 12.2%); Niger (119, 6.5%); San Marino (135, 53.9%); Sri Lanka (136, 77.7%); Bahamas (138, 54.9%); Comoros (145, 61.2%); Guyana (146, 79.3%); Kyrgyzstan (154, 79.8%); Tunisia (182, 10.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (233, 85.8%); Equatorial Guinea (248, 60.9%); Djibouti (295, 87.0%); Luxembourg (306, 1.6%); Maldives (312, 83.3%); Kuwait (325, 64.8%); Lithuania (333, 39.7%); Zimbabwe (349, 83.7%); Georgia (353, 41.6%); Guinea-Bissau (355, 61.8%); Mongolia (409, 75.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (439, 82.6%); Kazakhstan (452, 84.9%); Jordan (516, 77.2%); Hungary (784, 71.6%); Bahrain (786, 91.2%); Latvia (869, 63.4%); Tajikistan (1086, 93.3%); Jamaica (1129, 52.3%); United Arab Emirates (1281, 96.1%); Burma (1561, 62.2%); Qatar (2098, 78.2%); Algeria (2156, 84.7%); Serbia (2350, 8.1%); Sudan (3137, 96.2%); Gabon (3606, 90.6%); Belgium (7630, 67.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): VI (14, 6.8%); MN (105, 52.2%); ND (126, 44.1%); ME (226, 72.0%); MS (324, 79.4%); ID (435, 47.5%); NC (440, 85.8%); SD (449, 69.1%); IN (479, 66.8%); WY (531, 62.7%); NH (543, 72.1%); WI (972, 89.6%); NE (1155, 96.8%); DE (1231, 81.4%); CT (1283, 80.4%); VA (1602, 93.6%); MA (1686, 87.4%); IL (1711, 85.0%); DC (1847, 91.1%); NJ (1869, 76.0%); PA (1914, 65.4%); MD (4691, 97.8%); CO (5154, 95.8%); OH (10076, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); SK (52, 10.0%); MB (94, 4.1%); QC (702, 82.2%); BC (887, 25.8%)

Toronto's active cases saw a huge drop today, driven by a record 403 recoveries, which with 121 new cases and 4 deaths netted out to 286 fewer residents actively suffering COVID-19. One disturbing trend though is a rapid increase in recent days of the proportion of new cases being under age 20, which has hit its third-highest value to date today of 18.5%. The median age of new cases is back up to about 43 though, due to a slightly larger proportion (also 18.5%) of people in their forties. The most optimistic explanation for the rise in young cases is that more young people are now eligible for testing than were before.

Another disturbing issue is that 80 of today's 121 new cases are in the city's northwest, which is both bad news for people who live in that area, and may also lead to a false sense of security elsewhere.

Ontario saw a similar drop of 311 active cases. Many Ontario cabinet ministers, including Premier Doug Ford, have had to get tested today, after the Education Minister came in contact with a positive case. The Education Minister has tested negative, but the others are still awaiting results.

Both Toronto and Ontario now have downward 4-day active trends, so I can resume calculating days to eradication.

Today's chart shows all the countries of the world, and whether their active case counts are increasing or decreasing. It's comforting to see how many countries have made it down onto the decreasing side of the chart.

Stay safe.

2020-06-09

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (39→39), South Africa (44→49), California (50→53), Toronto (48→53), U.S. (46→54), India (95→100), Poland (130→129), Indonesia (168→155), Israel (230→190), Spain (522→558), France (517→587), Austria (788→830), South Korea (963→972), Norway (869→1100), Thailand (3731→3536)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Indonesia, Israel, Thailand

The same: Poland

Better: Alabama, California, India, Spain, Austria, South Korea

Much better: South Africa, Toronto, U.S., France, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (13→11, 0.0%), Malta (21→66, 9.6%), Malaysia (new→147, 47.9%), Turkey (365→151, 32.5%), Denmark (477→218, 14.6%), China (new→245, 0.2%), Italy (412→377, 38.9%), Australia (391→403, 9.1%), Brazil (new→437, 82.0%), Louisiana (331→448, 37.5%), Japan (288→495, 11.8%), Romania (2545→1058, 62.7%), Singapore (new→1533, 87.7%), Canada (1700→1774, 94.8%), U.K. (2125→1820, 85.4%), Germany (1366→2050, 10.5%), New York (4950→5323, 69.7%), Iran (new→5422, 83.3%), Mexico (new→7201, 96.3%), Ontario (new→13061, 80.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Eritrea, Montenegro, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (8, 0.0%); Holy See (10, 0.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (12, 0.0%); Laos (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Barbados (14, 7.7%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Croatia (14, 1.0%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 1.2%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Niger (14, 7.5%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 16.7%); Serbia (14, 8.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 33.3%); Taiwan (27, 1.9%); Chad (39, 16.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (45, 56.4%); Vietnam (51, 10.1%); Andorra (58, 10.3%); Nicaragua (63, 65.0%); Uruguay (74, 22.8%); Tunisia (90, 10.4%); Syria (116, 72.2%); Georgia (124, 39.9%); Slovakia (129, 12.2%); West Bank and Gaza (158, 33.9%); Switzerland (165, 2.5%); Guyana (169, 79.3%); Jordan (180, 72.4%); Sri Lanka (180, 83.5%); San Marino (189, 57.4%); Luxembourg (200, 1.5%); Gabon (229, 86.9%); Equatorial Guinea (248, 60.9%); Senegal (316, 90.0%); Kuwait (321, 67.6%); Djibouti (328, 90.3%); Bahamas (369, 61.5%); Maldives (417, 86.4%); Kazakhstan (531, 86.5%); Guinea-Bissau (532, 63.4%); Guinea (543, 76.7%); Kyrgyzstan (604, 88.4%); Latvia (689, 62.7%); Burkina Faso (738, 22.7%); Mali (764, 95.4%); Jamaica (870, 53.4%); Botswana (876, 90.0%); Hungary (899, 73.0%); Comoros (964, 69.9%); Togo (1014, 90.3%); Algeria (1112, 85.6%); Bahrain (1444, 91.9%); Lithuania (2058, 43.4%); Belgium (3839, 67.1%); Qatar (4001, 78.6%); United Arab Emirates (5195, 98.4%); Tajikistan (15004, 96.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (25): GU (14, 13.2%); VI (14, 6.8%); MS (125, 66.6%); MN (138, 54.8%); ND (201, 43.3%); ME (209, 72.0%); MI (297, 84.3%); MT (481, 17.9%); SD (498, 69.8%); NC (551, 79.5%); DE (743, 81.1%); IN (747, 69.0%); CT (1038, 79.4%); WI (1080, 91.7%); IL (1169, 85.4%); ID (1424, 48.8%); RI (1777, 84.9%); MA (1961, 87.7%); DC (2046, 90.9%); OH (2341, 97.9%); NJ (2695, 76.2%); NH (2982, 75.5%); MD (3195, 97.7%); NE (3950, 97.8%); VA (10836, 94.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, -0.2%); SK (41, 9.1%); MB (94, 4.1%); BC (552, 25.5%); QC (682, 83.4%)

New Zealand has announced that their last case of COVID-19 has recovered, so they are officially free of the disease until the next case arrives from overseas. In my calculations above, I'm allowing for 14 days in which someone who was infected by the last case might develop symptoms and come to official attention, but I share New Zealand's optimism and offer my congratulations.

Several other regions on my list are down to the point where daily new cases are in the single digits: Australia, China, Malaysia, Malta, Thailand, and maybe Norway. I think I should have a separate category for them, as small fluctuations in their new case numbers can shift their day count in an unhelpful way.

India showed a very slight improvement in their number of new cases today, down to 9,985 from 9,987, for the first time in over a week.

Brazil is not actually post-peak, but looks that way intermittently due to extremely periodic variations on a 7-day schedule. They show a consistent 1% daily increase, if you compare each day's figures with those from 7 days previously; they are slowing down but still worsening.

The province of Ontario is divided into 34 public health units. According to the CBC, whose numbers disagree somewhat with the province's, 27 of them have reached a point where they have been seeing no more than 5 new cases a day, and the majority none at all. The seven that still have trouble are Toronto (114) and its neighbours Peel (27), York (15), Durham (10), Hamilton (7), as well as Windsor-Essex (28) on the U.S. border, and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (11). Of these seven, the last is the only one that will be advancing to Phase 2 of the reopening plan on Friday.

Toronto had more recoveries and deaths than new cases though, so its active numbers went down slightly for the first time in three days, from 2,017 to 1,969, with still no sign of a downward trend. The median age for new cases is 40.

Today's chart shows the countries identified as being down to the single digits in daily new cases, plus Canada and the United States.

Stay safe.

2020-06-08

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (24→26), Alabama (67→39), Singapore (39→42), South Africa (40→44), U.S. (46→46), Toronto (48→48), California (50→50), Sweden (64→34), Mexico (66→74), India (93→95), Iran (95→95), Poland (145→130), Ontario (121→131), Indonesia (180→168), Israel (230→230), Spain (451→522), Austria (788→788), South Korea (948→963), Malaysia (338→1475), Thailand (2391→3731), China (95090→95090)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Sweden, Poland, Indonesia

Better: U.S., Toronto, California, India, Iran, Ontario, Israel, Austria, South Korea, China

Much better: Brazil, Singapore, South Africa, Mexico, Spain, Malaysia, Thailand

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (13, no new data, 0.0%), Malta (21, no new data, 8.9%), Norway (21, no new data, 4.3%), Japan (288, no new data, 12.8%), Louisiana (new→331, 34.5%), Turkey (365, no new data, 39.2%), Australia (391, no new data, 9.6%), Italy (412, no new data, 41.7%), Denmark (477, no new data, 15.7%), France (1286, no new data, 55.1%), Germany (1366, no new data, 10.8%), Canada (1700, no new data, 96.0%), U.K. (2125, no new data, 86.6%), Romania (2545, no new data, 63.0%), New York (3924→4950, 69.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Eritrea, Montenegro, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (10, 0.0%); Holy See (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Barbados (14, 7.7%); Belize (14, 6.3%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Croatia (14, 1.6%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Kosovo (14, 43.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Lesotho (14, 100.0%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 1.2%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 91.7%); Serbia (14, 4.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 1.1%); Western Sahara (14, 33.3%); Zambia (14, 27.1%); Luxembourg (29, 1.3%); Taiwan (35, 2.3%); Gambia (37, 33.3%); Chad (39, 24.0%); Comoros (56, 69.9%); Tunisia (71, 10.4%); Botswana (87, 78.6%); West Bank and Gaza (90, 30.3%); Angola (97, 78.5%); Morocco (108, 20.2%); Georgia (118, 40.9%); Guinea (120, 72.2%); Finland (124, 39.9%); Uruguay (138, 30.4%); Andorra (144, 13.4%); Sierra Leone (152, 71.1%); Guyana (160, 80.8%); Vietnam (193, 15.2%); Burkina Faso (211, 22.1%); Lithuania (226, 43.1%); Slovakia (229, 13.4%); Kuwait (248, 71.9%); Cyprus (272, 27.9%); Maldives (319, 87.5%); Equatorial Guinea (329, 68.1%); Switzerland (334, 2.4%); Bahamas (369, 61.5%); Kazakhstan (395, 91.1%); Jamaica (396, 53.7%); Senegal (429, 92.0%); Sudan (493, 93.1%); Latvia (562, 65.8%); Kyrgyzstan (619, 90.3%); Gabon (718, 91.4%); Burma (822, 64.6%); Algeria (856, 86.3%); Honduras (1103, 94.8%); Sri Lanka (1405, 93.2%); Lebanon (1453, 92.1%); Hungary (1547, 75.5%); Bahrain (1701, 95.0%); Belgium (2368, 67.3%); United Arab Emirates (4321, 99.0%); San Marino (5708, 63.8%); Qatar (6042, 79.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (28): MT (14, 19.3%); VI (14, 10.3%); MP (79, 63.6%); GU (142, 12.1%); MS (145, 66.6%); WY (295, 67.5%); MN (415, 59.9%); DE (565, 81.8%); IL (809, 85.5%); IN (854, 70.5%); PA (922, 65.8%); ME (1225, 83.8%); WV (1232, 94.5%); CT (1405, 80.8%); NC (1504, 75.4%); WI (1722, 93.0%); SD (1810, 72.0%); MA (1832, 87.8%); DC (1940, 90.8%); NJ (2979, 76.5%); OH (3373, 98.4%); RI (3533, 85.9%); CO (4276, 95.3%); KS (4575, 80.1%); NH (5416, 73.6%); MD (5851, 97.3%); ID (16869, 48.6%); WA (19064, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); SK (26, 8.1%); BC (300, 25.5%); QC (761, 85.0%)

It's surprising that getting timely, reliable, public data about COVID-19 is still difficult so far into the pandemic. When I started these posts, I looked at the Johns Hopkins University dataset, Wikipedia, and primary sources, and I saw that they each had problems. JHU has good coverage (in principle, every country of the world, and every state, province and territory of Canada and the United States, but not down to the city level), but is updated only once daily late in the evening my time (and later than usual tonight, as shown above), and when there are data anomalies they give no explanation and do not respond to inquiries. Wikipedia is as usual as good as its editors, so in regions where they have good teams, the numbers get updated within minutes of being announced, and there is always a vigorous discussion about any unusual ones; sometimes though (Sweden, Alabama), the volunteer editors stop contributing and the source dries up; you occasionally also see new editors mangle pages through their unfamiliarity with templates. Primary sources are authoritative in countries that have functioning public health authorities and infrastructure, and are a good way to learn how to say things like "confirmed cases", "PCR test" and "deaths" in foreign languages; they vary a lot though in retention of information (many only show today's numbers), they each have their own way of presenting the data (so I need a separate data scraper for each one), some only present data in graphical form (making scraping harder), and some regions just don't have reliable official numbers.

I'm thinking about this today because I hadn't been listing data for Sweden recently, because Wikipedia webpages haven't updated their tables in over a week. I don't blame them, because they are one of the few countries where the reporting approach has been to identify cases by episode date and not reporting date, which means that you may have to reenter all data to date with every daily update. It also means that recent numbers are meaningless, because they're incomplete. I went to the Folkhälsomyndigheten (public health agency) webpage to get their data, and have copied it to my Google Sheet today. This leads to a calculation of 60 days to 1% for Sweden, which is heavily distorted by the issue of recent numbers being incomplete: Swedish numbers always show a rapid decline in the past few days, which looks like a miraculous recovery from the pandemic. If you leave out the last three days, the calculation gives 34 days to 1%, which feels more accurate. Their last week of new cases daily, from oldest to newest, are: 889, 1070, 1042, 1142, 823, 344, 68.About 20,000 of their 45,133 cases to date are likely still active, and this number increases by about 3% daily.

Ontario did not include any of the missing William Osler Health System data today, so we showed a minuscule decrease from 3,939 active cases to 3,918. Our four-day trend is still slightly upward. Our 243 new cases almost equalled our 240 recoveries; 24 people died.

In Toronto, our active cases rose another 30 to 2,017, the first time we have been over two thousand this month, and well above our post-peak low of 1,427. That includes 169 new cases, or 8.5% of our previous day's active total. About a quarter each of the new cases were people in their 20s and people in their 30s.

Today's chart shows the five Nordic countries, plotting how their active case counts are changing against the proportion of population currently listed as actively infected. Iceland is the one on the left: they have two or three cases, so their rate fluctuates wildly depending on whether a new case is discovered or not. Norway is the one on the bottom, with a discontinuity in its trail due to a recalculation of recovered numbers in May. Denmark and Finland are the two in the middle doing fine at the 1 in 10,000 level gradually decreasing. And Sweden is the one off to the right, gradually heading toward one percent of its population actively infected, crossing the position in the state diagram that Iceland occupied back in early April, a week after the Icelandic national lockdown.

Stay safe.

2020-06-07

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (10→9), Brazil (23→24), Singapore (31→35), South Africa (45→41), U.S. (38→46), California (60→52), Mexico (60→63), Iran (80→81), India (93→93), U.K. (136→137), Poland (215→170), Indonesia (198→176), Israel (262→238), Malaysia (288→277), France (935→389), Spain (413→413), South Korea (1063→948), Thailand (3342→3184), China (213945→114106)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: South Africa, California, Poland, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, France, South Korea, Thailand, China

The same: Louisiana

Better: Brazil, Mexico, Iran, India, U.K., Spain

Much better: Singapore, U.S.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14, 0.1%), Malta (21→16, 8.1%), Norway (19→20, 3.9%), Japan (127→202, 13.1%), Australia (421→348, 9.6%), Denmark (250→358, 16.1%), Germany (204→359, 10.7%), Italy (400→422, 42.4%), Alabama (287→474, 92.2%), Austria (303→507, 4.7%), Toronto (1489→537, 59.7%), Turkey (1402→726, 41.7%), Ontario (new→928, 78.6%), Romania (3160→1095, 63.6%), Canada (1993→1501, 96.1%), New York (8978→5120, 70.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Eritrea, Montenegro, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (11, 0.0%); Holy See (13, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 14.1%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Barbados (14, 7.7%); Belize (14, 6.3%); Botswana (14, 91.4%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Czechia (14, 57.1%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Gambia (14, 33.3%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Iceland (14, 0.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 1.2%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 91.7%); Serbia (14, 8.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 1.1%); Western Sahara (14, 33.3%); Zambia (14, 27.1%); Croatia (17, 2.1%); Luxembourg (33, 1.7%); Chad (34, 23.8%); Morocco (41, 19.4%); Taiwan (42, 2.6%); Burkina Faso (46, 21.8%); Vietnam (49, 13.9%); Comoros (56, 69.9%); Ireland (60, 6.9%); South Sudan (64, 59.7%); Niger (81, 7.5%); Switzerland (86, 2.3%); West Bank and Gaza (87, 28.0%); Tunisia (107, 11.3%); Sierra Leone (118, 67.7%); Guinea (123, 73.4%); Finland (125, 39.1%); Uruguay (136, 31.7%); Angola (167, 84.5%); Equatorial Guinea (177, 68.1%); Lithuania (177, 42.8%); Georgia (184, 44.3%); Kuwait (202, 73.2%); Syria (205, 80.3%); Bahamas (233, 61.5%); Jamaica (250, 53.4%); Cyprus (313, 27.1%); Burma (325, 63.0%); Senegal (385, 91.9%); Bhutan (401, 93.0%); Maldives (423, 91.7%); Guinea-Bissau (544, 66.8%); Algeria (565, 86.1%); Hungary (589, 74.4%); Kazakhstan (769, 92.1%); Uzbekistan (869, 61.8%); Kyrgyzstan (1000, 95.5%); Latvia (1025, 65.3%); Gabon (2073, 91.4%); Belgium (2250, 67.6%); Guyana (2250, 90.0%); Slovakia (2668, 14.6%); Tajikistan (4286, 96.1%); United Arab Emirates (13184, 99.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): GU (18, 13.2%); WY (74, 65.5%); ME (307, 81.4%); DE (373, 83.8%); PA (422, 66.9%); RI (453, 83.9%); IL (664, 87.3%); NH (669, 76.4%); WV (789, 94.5%); IN (916, 72.5%); CT (1611, 83.0%); KS (1623, 78.8%); MA (1860, 89.7%); NJ (3155, 77.9%); DC (7260, 92.9%); OH (7409, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); MB (40, 4.7%); SK (98, 13.4%); AB (226, 10.8%); BC (340, 26.9%); QC (794, 87.2%)

Today's graphic shows our traditional regions of personal interest, and which way their new case rates are trending.

Louisiana continues at its steady pace toward 1%.

Brazil may be stabilizing; even though it shows weekly cyclical behaviour, it was at 24 days a week ago today as well.

India has had five consecutive worsening new case counts, increasing from 8,171 to 9,971, their worst day yet. The seriousness of their situation is masked partly by a data smoothing artifact (the 8,171 is no longer part of the four-day mean, and preceded a huge one-day leap), and also by the size of their overall population, of which ten thousand people is a small fraction.

Singapore had two consecutive days with under 350 new cases, which hasn't happened since early April, so they appear to be genuinely improving from a serious situation.

Malta has had two weeks of nonincreasing (and mostly decreasing) active case numbers, dropping from 130 to 22, on the way to what I hope is eradication of the disease from their island.

Of 140 neighbourhoods in Toronto, 79 reported no new cases today. (In fact, among these, one neighbourhood lost two cumulative cases, and seven lost one; it is unclear to me why. 26 saw one more case; 14 two; 7 three; 9 four; Glenfield-Jane Heights and Yorkdale-Glen Park five; West Humber-Clairville, Wychwood, and York University Heights six; and Downsview-Roding-CFB thirteen. Of the named neighbourhoods, Wychwood is west central, and the rest are in the city's most heavily affected northwestern end.

Toronto showed a slight downtick in active cases, from 1,839 to 1,783. That's about where we were most recently on May 21, then earlier for the first week of May, and originally on the uphill side of the curve around April 12. The current rate of new cases in the city corresponds to a roughly 1 in 1,000 chance of a statistically typical resident contracting COVID-19 over the course of a two-week period. The number of COVID-19 patients in ICU beds dropped down to 75, the lowest it's been since April 8th.

Ontario has a slight uptick, from 3,792 back up to 3,848. It is still trending very slightly downward when data is smoothed over most short periods; for example, -0.5% active cases per day averaged over four days.

Overall, it looks to me as though with the current levels of restricted activity, we could very slowly eradicate the disease from our city and province over the span of several months if not years. If we were able to restrict activity further, we could do it faster, and more reliably. When I go out for necessary shopping, I loathe going to new places, because I am never sure what the safety culture will be like. In most places I go, there's good ventilation, low population density, good separation, people wearing masks just in case, and frequently using alcohol-based hand sanitizer, with staff behind partitions. At the local bulk food store, for example, customers are allowed in one at a time, to ask one of two staff for the things that they want to purchase, which are then rung up by the other staff member. No one gets closer than two metres, and even that only when paying, and the risk seems minimal. On the other hand, I saw a small shop today where there were five people in a space of about 90 square metres, which is well within local guidelines of 4~5 square metres per person, but still felt panic-inducingly claustrophobic because of the shop's layout and facilities (and having a dog that sniffs each customer as they come in seems unsanitary in this age).

Stay safe.

2020-06-06

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (10→9), Brazil (23→24), Singapore (31→35), South Africa (45→41), U.S. (38→46), California (60→52), Mexico (60→63), Iran (80→81), India (93→93), U.K. (136→137), Poland (215→170), Indonesia (198→176), Israel (262→238), Malaysia (288→277), France (935→389), Spain (413→413), South Korea (1063→948), Thailand (3342→3184), China (213945→114106)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: South Africa, California, Poland, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, France, South Korea, Thailand, China

The same: Louisiana

Better: Brazil, Mexico, Iran, India, U.K., Spain

Much better: Singapore, U.S.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14, 0.1%), Malta (21→16, 8.1%), Norway (19→20, 3.9%), Japan (127→202, 13.1%), Australia (421→348, 9.6%), Denmark (250→358, 16.1%), Germany (204→359, 10.7%), Italy (400→422, 42.4%), Alabama (287→474, 92.2%), Austria (303→507, 4.7%), Toronto (1489→537, 59.7%), Turkey (1402→726, 41.7%), Ontario (new→928, 78.6%), Romania (3160→1095, 63.6%), Canada (1993→1501, 96.1%), New York (8978→5120, 70.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Eritrea, Montenegro, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Fiji (11, 0.0%); Holy See (13, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 14.1%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 16.9%); Barbados (14, 7.7%); Belize (14, 6.3%); Botswana (14, 91.4%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Czechia (14, 57.1%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Gambia (14, 33.3%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Iceland (14, 0.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 1.2%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 91.7%); Serbia (14, 8.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 1.1%); Western Sahara (14, 33.3%); Zambia (14, 27.1%); Croatia (17, 2.1%); Luxembourg (33, 1.7%); Chad (34, 23.8%); Morocco (41, 19.4%); Taiwan (42, 2.6%); Burkina Faso (46, 21.8%); Vietnam (49, 13.9%); Comoros (56, 69.9%); Ireland (60, 6.9%); South Sudan (64, 59.7%); Niger (81, 7.5%); Switzerland (86, 2.3%); West Bank and Gaza (87, 28.0%); Tunisia (107, 11.3%); Sierra Leone (118, 67.7%); Guinea (123, 73.4%); Finland (125, 39.1%); Uruguay (136, 31.7%); Angola (167, 84.5%); Equatorial Guinea (177, 68.1%); Lithuania (177, 42.8%); Georgia (184, 44.3%); Kuwait (202, 73.2%); Syria (205, 80.3%); Bahamas (233, 61.5%); Jamaica (250, 53.4%); Cyprus (313, 27.1%); Burma (325, 63.0%); Senegal (385, 91.9%); Bhutan (401, 93.0%); Maldives (423, 91.7%); Guinea-Bissau (544, 66.8%); Algeria (565, 86.1%); Hungary (589, 74.4%); Kazakhstan (769, 92.1%); Uzbekistan (869, 61.8%); Kyrgyzstan (1000, 95.5%); Latvia (1025, 65.3%); Gabon (2073, 91.4%); Belgium (2250, 67.6%); Guyana (2250, 90.0%); Slovakia (2668, 14.6%); Tajikistan (4286, 96.1%); United Arab Emirates (13184, 99.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): GU (18, 13.2%); WY (74, 65.5%); ME (307, 81.4%); DE (373, 83.8%); PA (422, 66.9%); RI (453, 83.9%); IL (664, 87.3%); NH (669, 76.4%); WV (789, 94.5%); IN (916, 72.5%); CT (1611, 83.0%); KS (1623, 78.8%); MA (1860, 89.7%); NJ (3155, 77.9%); DC (7260, 92.9%); OH (7409, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); MB (40, 4.7%); SK (98, 13.4%); AB (226, 10.8%); BC (340, 26.9%); QC (794, 87.2%)

Today's graphic shows our traditional regions of personal interest, and which way their new case rates are trending.

Louisiana continues at its steady pace toward 1%.

Brazil may be stabilizing; even though it shows weekly cyclical behaviour, it was at 24 days a week ago today as well.

India has had five consecutive worsening new case counts, increasing from 8,171 to 9,971, their worst day yet. The seriousness of their situation is masked partly by a data smoothing artifact (the 8,171 is no longer part of the four-day mean, and preceded a huge one-day leap), and also by the size of their overall population, of which ten thousand people is a small fraction.

Singapore had two consecutive days with under 350 new cases, which hasn't happened since early April, so they appear to be genuinely improving from a serious situation.

Malta has had two weeks of nonincreasing (and mostly decreasing) active case numbers, dropping from 130 to 22, on the way to what I hope is eradication of the disease from their island.

Of 140 neighbourhoods in Toronto, 79 reported no new cases today. (In fact, among these, one neighbourhood lost two cumulative cases, and seven lost one; it is unclear to me why. 26 saw one more case; 14 two; 7 three; 9 four; Glenfield-Jane Heights and Yorkdale-Glen Park five; West Humber-Clairville, Wychwood, and York University Heights six; and Downsview-Roding-CFB thirteen. Of the named neighbourhoods, Wychwood is west central, and the rest are in the city's most heavily affected northwestern end.

Toronto showed a slight downtick in active cases, from 1,839 to 1,783. That's about where we were most recently on May 21, then earlier for the first week of May, and originally on the uphill side of the curve around April 12. The current rate of new cases in the city corresponds to a roughly 1 in 1,000 chance of a statistically typical resident contracting COVID-19 over the course of a two-week period. The number of COVID-19 patients in ICU beds dropped down to 75, the lowest it's been since April 8th.

Ontario has a slight uptick, from 3,792 back up to 3,848. It is still trending very slightly downward when data is smoothed over most short periods; for example, -0.5% active cases per day averaged over four days.

Overall, it looks to me as though with the current levels of restricted activity, we could very slowly eradicate the disease from our city and province over the span of several months if not years. If we were able to restrict activity further, we could do it faster, and more reliably. When I go out for necessary shopping, I loathe going to new places, because I am never sure what the safety culture will be like. In most places I go, there's good ventilation, low population density, good separation, people wearing masks just in case, and frequently using alcohol-based hand sanitizer, with staff behind partitions. At the local bulk food store, for example, customers are allowed in one at a time, to ask one of two staff for the things that they want to purchase, which are then rung up by the other staff member. No one gets closer than two metres, and even that only when paying, and the risk seems minimal. On the other hand, I saw a small shop today where there were five people in a space of about 90 square metres, which is well within local guidelines of 4~5 square metres per person, but still felt panic-inducingly claustrophobic because of the shop's layout and facilities (and having a dog that sniffs each customer as they come in seems unsanitary in this age).

Stay safe.

2020-06-05

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (11→10), Brazil (28→23), Singapore (29→31), U.S. (54→38), South Africa (48→45), California (51→60), Mexico (65→60), Iran (80→80), India (94→93), Ontario (121→126), U.K. (137→136), Indonesia (215→198), Israel (262→262), Malaysia (275→288), Spain (450→413), South Korea (1063→1063), Thailand (3341→3342), China (171149→213945)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, U.S., Mexico, Indonesia, Spain

Worse: South Africa

The same: Louisiana, India, U.K.

Better: Iran, Ontario, Israel, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand

Much better: Singapore, California, China

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14, no new data, 0.1%), Norway (17→19, 3.7%), Malta (24→21, 12.2%), Japan (143→127, 12.6%), Germany (212→204, 10.7%), Denmark (151→250, 16.6%), Alabama (319→287, 84.7%), Austria (230→303, 4.6%), Italy (496→400, 43.7%), Australia (678→421, 9.7%), Turkey (3227→1402, 43.2%), Toronto (727→1489, 61.6%), Canada (2873→1993, 97.2%), France (2192→2787, 54.4%), Romania (3313→3160, 64.9%), Poland (new→7115, 99.4%), New York (13610→8978, 70.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Montenegro (1, 0.0%); Fiji (12, 0.0%); Barbados (14, 7.7%); Belize (14, 6.3%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Gambia (14, 33.3%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Holy See (14, 48.0%); Iceland (14, 0.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 1.2%); Monaco (14, 3.2%); Namibia (14, 69.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 91.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 1.1%); Western Sahara (14, 33.3%); Zambia (14, 27.1%); Croatia (22, 2.9%); Antigua and Barbuda (25, 16.9%); Morocco (26, 18.4%); Vietnam (29, 13.3%); Luxembourg (31, 1.7%); Chad (42, 27.8%); Taiwan (42, 2.6%); Chile (43, 36.7%); Ireland (58, 6.8%); Niger (68, 7.5%); Uruguay (91, 29.7%); South Sudan (92, 67.9%); Angola (105, 82.0%); Equatorial Guinea (105, 68.1%); Finland (112, 38.0%); Eswatini (120, 61.4%); Guinea (153, 81.3%); Lithuania (175, 43.9%); Syria (190, 85.5%); Sierra Leone (197, 68.6%); Georgia (212, 47.7%); Kuwait (214, 76.6%); Botswana (229, 91.4%); Uzbekistan (273, 56.9%); Switzerland (323, 2.9%); Burma (330, 63.8%); Comoros (336, 71.4%); Kyrgyzstan (366, 92.6%); Slovakia (383, 14.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (396, 88.2%); Maldives (403, 92.8%); Latvia (405, 65.1%); Jamaica (415, 54.9%); Tunisia (463, 12.8%); Guinea-Bissau (471, 66.8%); Guyana (497, 88.5%); Cyprus (519, 27.3%); Algeria (598, 88.3%); Kazakhstan (634, 92.7%); Bahamas (643, 64.3%); Tajikistan (1323, 96.6%); Estonia (1369, 19.7%); Hungary (1429, 75.5%); Belgium (2143, 67.8%); Qatar (2401, 79.5%); Czechia (4372, 56.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (4398, 47.7%); Serbia (17792, 63.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): HI (14, 8.5%); GU (17, 13.2%); WY (68, 63.9%); ME (205, 82.2%); MN (207, 70.5%); ND (217, 49.4%); DE (382, 85.0%); PA (405, 66.2%); WV (442, 92.8%); RI (761, 86.7%); IN (879, 72.7%); SD (891, 74.2%); DC (938, 92.4%); IL (1075, 88.8%); NH (1088, 76.4%); CT (1347, 82.5%); KS (1623, 78.8%); NJ (2076, 77.5%); MD (18881, 99.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (10): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NS (13, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.0%); SK (29, 12.9%); MB (110, 4.7%); AB (131, 10.5%); BC (155, 26.9%); QC (908, 88.7%)

The situation in Louisiana is still grave, as the state progresses inexorably toward 1% and beyond. The ratio of new cases to active cases is steady at about 5%, and about 400 new cases are diagnosed every day.

Brazil is reaching the peak of its weekly cycle, but each week is a little worse than the week before.

Someone was diagnosed in our neighbourhood with COVID-19 today: our case count went up from 8 to 9. Seven neighbourhoods remain recently free of new cases: Alderwood, Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills, Kingsway South, Lambton Baby Point, North Riverdale, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Woodbine Corridor. Two neighbourhoods have a significantly higher daily new case rate than all the rest: Thistletown-Beaumont Heights (7.8%) and Rockcliffe-Smythe (6.3%); the next highest is 4.4%.

Toronto's total number of active cases remains steady for the fifth day in the 1800s, at 1839. During that time, we've averaged 150 new cases a day (139 today), 7 deaths (10 today), and 172 recoveries (165 today); which does net out to a very slow decrease in the active case count. The situation is similar in Ontario, with roughly doubled numbers: a range of 3,792-3,932 (3,792 today).

I saw a lot of people out protesting for Black Lives Matter today. Every single one of them was wearing a mask and maintaining a safe distance from other protesters. I would be surprised if this led to an increase in COVID-19 numbers.

Today's chart plots each U.S. state and territory vertically according to how quickly the pandemic is still spreading, and horizontally according to how much of the population is still affected. Hawaii in the bottom left has few cases (1 in 52K) and they are spreading slowly (3%); Vermont at the top left has few cases (1 in 7K) spreading fast (11%); Michigan (top right-ish) has a lot of cases (1 in 500) spreading fast (7%); New York and New Jersey in the bottom right have a lot of cases (1 in 180 people has an active case of COVID-19) but it's spreading slowly (only 1% of those cases will result today in a new case).

Stay safe.

2020-06-04

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (32→28), South Africa (57→48), California (48→51), U.S. (51→54), Mexico (70→65), Iran (87→80), India (94→94), Ontario (123→121), U.K. (135→137), Poland (236→210), Indonesia (201→215), Israel (304→262), Malaysia (559→275), Spain (505→450), South Korea (1086→1063), Thailand (9524→3341)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Iran, Poland, Israel, Malaysia, Spain, South Korea, Thailand

Worse: Ontario

Better: California, U.S., India, U.K., Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14, no new data, 0.1%), Norway (new→17, 3.2%), Malta (37→24, 13.7%), Japan (149→143, 13.7%), Denmark (205→151, 15.9%), Louisiana (177→198, 38.6%), Germany (204→212, 10.9%), Austria (184→230, 4.5%), Alabama (463→319, 81.3%), Italy (425→496, 45.4%), Australia (new→678, 9.7%), Toronto (598→727, 61.0%), France (new→2192, 54.1%), China (new→2590, 0.2%), Canada (4717→2873, 97.9%), Singapore (656→3165, 90.3%), Turkey (2147→3227, 44.2%), Romania (672→3313, 65.5%), New York (29843→13610, 70.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Belize, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Montenegro (2, 0.0%); Fiji (13, 0.0%); Barbados (14, 7.7%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Burundi (14, 100.0%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Grenada (14, 41.7%); Holy See (14, 48.0%); Iceland (14, 0.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Latvia (14, 69.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 32.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 1.2%); Monaco (14, 4.9%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 91.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 1.1%); Western Sahara (14, 33.3%); Morocco (22, 18.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (25, 16.9%); Vietnam (25, 16.5%); Taiwan (27, 3.0%); Croatia (29, 3.7%); Luxembourg (32, 1.9%); Chad (41, 32.2%); Niger (47, 7.5%); Zambia (50, 27.1%); Ireland (62, 6.7%); Equatorial Guinea (91, 73.1%); Finland (107, 36.7%); Angola (109, 85.0%); Namibia (110, 69.2%); Congo (Brazzaville) (123, 80.7%); South Sudan (140, 75.2%); Uruguay (143, 33.0%); Guyana (156, 88.5%); Georgia (159, 48.3%); Kuwait (189, 78.7%); Estonia (203, 17.9%); Syria (221, 85.5%); Switzerland (222, 2.7%); Guinea (251, 86.4%); Jordan (263, 76.8%); Togo (297, 86.7%); Lithuania (358, 46.9%); Qatar (465, 78.6%); Comoros (511, 72.8%); Slovakia (547, 14.8%); Bahamas (643, 64.3%); Algeria (722, 90.2%); Burkina Faso (726, 22.4%); Sao Tome and Principe (771, 96.7%); Jamaica (835, 55.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1224, 48.2%); Bulgaria (1395, 82.8%); Tajikistan (1566, 97.1%); Serbia (1657, 63.6%); Belgium (2113, 68.1%); Guinea-Bissau (2261, 63.6%); Czechia (2592, 57.2%); Netherlands (21371, 69.0%); Kazakhstan (40214, 93.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (20): GU (18, 13.2%); HI (100, 7.6%); ND (103, 49.3%); MN (107, 65.2%); WY (108, 73.0%); MS (225, 85.0%); ME (256, 85.7%); SD (435, 73.2%); DE (440, 87.0%); DC (659, 92.4%); RI (708, 86.8%); PA (710, 68.9%); IN (717, 73.9%); NC (834, 95.3%); WV (1044, 96.7%); IL (1192, 90.5%); NJ (1294, 77.7%); CT (1884, 83.2%); MD (2166, 98.0%); KS (3488, 80.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (10): NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.4%); SK (28, 13.9%); MB (30, 3.6%); AB (47, 10.7%); BC (190, 28.0%); QC (912, 89.8%)

The province of New Brunswick recorded its first COVID-19 death today. An 84-year-old man with moderate Alzheimer's disease apparently contracted COVID-19 in his long-term care facility from an aforementioned doctor who travelled to Quebec and then returned to looking after his patients without undergoing mandatory 14-day quarantine.

Depending on whose sources you look at, at some point in the last few days, officially recorded U.S. deaths due to COVID-19 exceeded 100,000 sometime in the last few days. That's about 1 in 3,300 people, or about the same proportion of the American population that was killed by the Vietnam War over more than a decade. More than 1,000 Americans have died of COVID-19 each day in the past two days, and that number is holding roughly steady.

There have been no changes to COVID-19 case numbers in ten of 140 official Toronto neighbourhoods in the nine days that statistics have been reported at this level: Alderwood, Bayview Village, Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills, Danforth Village-Toronto, Kingsway South, Lambton Baby Point, North Riverdale, Playter Estates-Danforth, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Woodbine Corridor. Our neighbourhood is still on the list, but the last one to fall off the list (Blake-Jones) is catercorner to ours to the southwest. (I should add that while I appreciate the unedited availability of the data, its quality is not such as to inspire a lot of confidence. Cumulative numbers seem to go down as often as they go up, and the names of the neighbourhoods vary from day to day, necessitating a fair amount of work to correlate them.)

Overall, the number of active cases in Toronto and Ontario are down slightly again. We are more or less back where we were a month ago, after dipping downward due to isolation and distancing, and easing back upward due to relaxing of restrictions. I do see a lot more people seriously wearing masks and keeping their distance now than I did last week though, so maybe we can make some progress this month. Today's chart just shows active cases for Toronto and Ontario; the chart and source data can be found in the Google Sheet that I list among sources on my main website.

Stay safe.

2020-06-03

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (25→30), Alabama (40→40), California (46→48), U.S. (46→49), South Africa (50→57), Sweden (64→64), Mexico (76→74), Iran (95→93), India (93→94), Ontario (132→123), Indonesia (198→208), Poland (193→210), Israel (346→318), Spain (321→406), France (296→541), South Korea (1253→1172), Norway (1731→1891), Australia (1877→2116), China (63379→77785)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Ontario, Israel, South Korea

Worse: Mexico, Iran

Better: Alabama, California, U.S., Sweden, India, Indonesia, Poland, Norway

Much better: Brazil, South Africa, Spain, France, Australia, China

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (3→2, 0%), Malta (51→39, 21.1%), Austria (75→83, 4.9%), Thailand (392→84, 4.1%), Denmark (405→174, 17.4%), Japan (247→207, 15.2%), Louisiana (158→220, 34.4%), Germany (406→251, 11.9%), Italy (305→309, 47.2%), Malaysia (6050→467, 49.8%), Singapore (615→506, 87.9%), Toronto (623→584, 63.5%), Romania (762→870, 65.7%), U.K. (1661→1946, 86.5%), Turkey (1573→2236, 44.3%), Canada (9369→4283, 99.0%), New York (4237→10310, 70.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Montenegro (4, 0.0%); Taiwan (23, 3.4%); Vietnam (33, 19.0%); Niger (36, 9.2%); Croatia (46, 5.2%); Zambia (50, 27.1%); Morocco (54, 38.7%); Luxembourg (57, 2.8%); Chad (66, 43.8%); Mongolia (73, 72.7%); Switzerland (93, 3.2%); Slovakia (94, 14.8%); Equatorial Guinea (129, 79.9%); Eswatini (132, 70.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (142, 91.7%); Syria (174, 88.2%); Qatar (177, 78.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (223, 46.6%); Togo (224, 83.3%); Jordan (289, 79.7%); Guyana (311, 90.8%); Estonia (342, 19.3%); Sierra Leone (362, 84.1%); Panama (369, 88.9%); Tunisia (374, 13.6%); Georgia (389, 50.0%); Dominican Republic (396, 89.9%); Kosovo (423, 36.8%); Kuwait (435, 89.3%); Algeria (568, 91.5%); South Sudan (578, 92.2%); Lithuania (609, 49.5%); Saudi Arabia (620, 78.9%); Bulgaria (679, 83.5%); Hungary (795, 78.5%); Latvia (924, 66.9%); Serbia (1009, 64.0%); Uruguay (1223, 37.0%); Guinea (1372, 94.7%); Guinea-Bissau (1478, 70.3%); Tajikistan (1789, 96.9%); Gabon (1846, 98.3%); Belgium (2304, 68.8%); San Marino (3419, 63.6%); Ecuador (3606, 60.9%); Czechia (3638, 57.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories: MP (27, 45.5%); ND (109, 51.9%); MN (111, 72.1%); IN (151, 75.8%); VT (154, 9.6%); MI (165, 69.7%); MS (249, 75.5%); WY (358, 89.7%); ME (410, 89.2%); SD (659, 72.9%); NC (727, 79.3%); CT (1092, 85.1%); WV (1381, 98.0%); DC (1587, 93.3%); PA (1624, 73.8%); WI (1929, 97.4%); NJ (2051, 79.0%); DE (2674, 92.1%); KS (2782, 80.5%); RI (2804, 91.0%); MD (4264, 97.2%); IL (6455, 93.5%); NM (12963, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 1.1%); SK (28, 15.8%); AB (54, 12.1%); MB (82, 6.2%); BC (249, 28.9%); QC (1099, 91.9%)

Brazil's improvement is part of its weekly reporting cycle. Week-on-week, it's still worsening, with the days-to-one-percent being 36 a week ago (and 30 now).

Iran has gone in a week from fewer than 2,000 new cases a day to more than 3,000 new cases a day.

Ontario had a third straight day of increasing new case numbers: 323, 326, 404, 446. There were only three days last month when we had as many as 446 new cases in a day, but today at least it could be part of the 700 new cases that were discovered yesterday. If the numbers go back down by the end of the week, we should know.

Toronto also has had three straight increasing new case days: 123, 150, 164, 175; and I would reason the same way about those rediscovered missing cases, some of which must be from Toronto. New cases were reported for the first time since neighbourhood records were published in three more neighbourhoods: East End-Danforth, Lawrence Park North, and Long Branch. That first one is two neighbourhoods away from ours, so it feels like it's getting closer. No changes in cases reported in 13 of 140 neighbourhoods: Alderwood, Bayview Village, Blake-Jones, Bridle Path-Sunnybrooke-York Mills, Danforth Village - Toronto, Eringate-Centennial-West Deane, Kingsway South, Lambton Baby Point, North Riverdale, Playter Estates-Danforth, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Woodbine Corridor, Yonge-Eglinton.

Among the countries in the world with the ten largest numbers of active cases (U.S., Brazil, Russia, India, Peru, U.K., Chile, Spain, France, and Pakistan), the U.K. is alone in appearing to have active numbers that are trending downward. In the next ten (Italy, Bangladesh, Canada, Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Colombia, Egypt), Italy, Canada, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are trending downward. The first ten countries account for about 3/4 of the cases in the world, and then next ten about 1/9.

Today's graphic shows the 18 countries in the world with at least 1 in 1,000 of their population currently an active COVID-19 case, whose active case numbers are still increasing.

Stay safe.

2020-06-02

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (25→30), Alabama (40→40), California (46→48), U.S. (46→49), South Africa (50→57), Sweden (64→64), Mexico (76→74), Iran (95→93), India (93→94), Ontario (132→123), Indonesia (198→208), Poland (193→210), Israel (346→318), Spain (321→406), France (296→541), South Korea (1253→1172), Norway (1731→1891), Australia (1877→2116), China (63379→77785)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Ontario, Israel, South Korea

Worse: Mexico, Iran

Better: Alabama, California, U.S., Sweden, India, Indonesia, Poland, Norway

Much better: Brazil, South Africa, Spain, France, Australia, China

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (3→2, 0%), Malta (51→39, 21.1%), Austria (75→83, 4.9%), Thailand (392→84, 4.1%), Denmark (405→174, 17.4%), Japan (247→207, 15.2%), Louisiana (158→220, 34.4%), Germany (406→251, 11.9%), Italy (305→309, 47.2%), Malaysia (6050→467, 49.8%), Singapore (615→506, 87.9%), Toronto (623→584, 63.5%), Romania (762→870, 65.7%), U.K. (1661→1946, 86.5%), Turkey (1573→2236, 44.3%), Canada (9369→4283, 99.0%), New York (4237→10310, 70.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Montenegro (4, 0.0%); Taiwan (23, 3.4%); Vietnam (33, 19.0%); Niger (36, 9.2%); Croatia (46, 5.2%); Zambia (50, 27.1%); Morocco (54, 38.7%); Luxembourg (57, 2.8%); Chad (66, 43.8%); Mongolia (73, 72.7%); Switzerland (93, 3.2%); Slovakia (94, 14.8%); Equatorial Guinea (129, 79.9%); Eswatini (132, 70.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (142, 91.7%); Syria (174, 88.2%); Qatar (177, 78.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (223, 46.6%); Togo (224, 83.3%); Jordan (289, 79.7%); Guyana (311, 90.8%); Estonia (342, 19.3%); Sierra Leone (362, 84.1%); Panama (369, 88.9%); Tunisia (374, 13.6%); Georgia (389, 50.0%); Dominican Republic (396, 89.9%); Kosovo (423, 36.8%); Kuwait (435, 89.3%); Algeria (568, 91.5%); South Sudan (578, 92.2%); Lithuania (609, 49.5%); Saudi Arabia (620, 78.9%); Bulgaria (679, 83.5%); Hungary (795, 78.5%); Latvia (924, 66.9%); Serbia (1009, 64.0%); Uruguay (1223, 37.0%); Guinea (1372, 94.7%); Guinea-Bissau (1478, 70.3%); Tajikistan (1789, 96.9%); Gabon (1846, 98.3%); Belgium (2304, 68.8%); San Marino (3419, 63.6%); Ecuador (3606, 60.9%); Czechia (3638, 57.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories: MP (27, 45.5%); ND (109, 51.9%); MN (111, 72.1%); IN (151, 75.8%); VT (154, 9.6%); MI (165, 69.7%); MS (249, 75.5%); WY (358, 89.7%); ME (410, 89.2%); SD (659, 72.9%); NC (727, 79.3%); CT (1092, 85.1%); WV (1381, 98.0%); DC (1587, 93.3%); PA (1624, 73.8%); WI (1929, 97.4%); NJ (2051, 79.0%); DE (2674, 92.1%); KS (2782, 80.5%); RI (2804, 91.0%); MD (4264, 97.2%); IL (6455, 93.5%); NM (12963, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 1.1%); SK (28, 15.8%); AB (54, 12.1%); MB (82, 6.2%); BC (249, 28.9%); QC (1099, 91.9%)

Brazil's improvement is part of its weekly reporting cycle. Week-on-week, it's still worsening, with the days-to-one-percent being 36 a week ago (and 30 now).

Iran has gone in a week from fewer than 2,000 new cases a day to more than 3,000 new cases a day.

Ontario had a third straight day of increasing new case numbers: 323, 326, 404, 446. There were only three days last month when we had as many as 446 new cases in a day, but today at least it could be part of the 700 new cases that were discovered yesterday. If the numbers go back down by the end of the week, we should know.

Toronto also has had three straight increasing new case days: 123, 150, 164, 175; and I would reason the same way about those rediscovered missing cases, some of which must be from Toronto. New cases were reported for the first time since neighbourhood records were published in three more neighbourhoods: East End-Danforth, Lawrence Park North, and Long Branch. That first one is two neighbourhoods away from ours, so it feels like it's getting closer. No changes in cases reported in 13 of 140 neighbourhoods: Alderwood, Bayview Village, Blake-Jones, Bridle Path-Sunnybrooke-York Mills, Danforth Village - Toronto, Eringate-Centennial-West Deane, Kingsway South, Lambton Baby Point, North Riverdale, Playter Estates-Danforth, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Woodbine Corridor, Yonge-Eglinton.

Among the countries in the world with the ten largest numbers of active cases (U.S., Brazil, Russia, India, Peru, U.K., Chile, Spain, France, and Pakistan), the U.K. is alone in appearing to have active numbers that are trending downward. In the next ten (Italy, Bangladesh, Canada, Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Colombia, Egypt), Italy, Canada, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are trending downward. The first ten countries account for about 3/4 of the cases in the world, and then next ten about 1/9.

Today's graphic shows the 18 countries in the world with at least 1 in 1,000 of their population currently an active COVID-19 case, whose active case numbers are still increasing.

Stay safe.

2020-06-01

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (25→25), Alabama (40→40), California (46→46), U.S. (46→46), South Africa (50→50), Sweden (64→64), India (93→93), Iran (105→95), Poland (195→193), Indonesia (178→198), France (149→296), Spain (209→321), Israel (432→346), South Korea (1091→1253), Norway (1271→1731), Australia (1808→1877), China (77782→63379)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Iran, Israel, China

Worse: Poland

Better: Brazil, Alabama, California, U.S., South Africa, Sweden, India, Australia

Much better: Indonesia, France, Spain, South Korea, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (4→3, 0%), Malta (48→51, 27.0%), Austria (65→75, 5.0%), Louisiana (new→158, 32.3%), Japan (172→247, 16.1%), Italy (237→305, 48.9%), Thailand (244→392, 4.1%), Denmark (296→405, 18.6%), Germany (514→406, 12.9%), Singapore (781→615, 89.0%), Toronto (new→623, 63.0%), Romania (387→762, 65.6%), Turkey (1236→1573, 44.6%), U.K. (1533→1661, 86.6%), New York (4145→4237, 70.7%), Malaysia (626→6050, 51.5%), Canada (18097→9369, 99.4%), Ontario (2966→24539, 80.8%), Mexico (new→56496, 96.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Dominica, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Montenegro (5, 0.0%); Iceland (14, 0.2%); Andorra (21, 3.8%); Slovenia (25, 0.9%); Taiwan (26, 3.4%); Niger (31, 9.6%); Gambia (37, 33.3%); Luxembourg (49, 2.9%); Zambia (50, 27.1%); Vietnam (51, 22.2%); Croatia (59, 6.2%); Chad (81, 46.2%); Slovakia (93, 15.2%); Switzerland (110, 3.1%); Uruguay (122, 37.3%); Morocco (126, 53.7%); Estonia (134, 20.1%); Cameroon (151, 78.7%); Tunisia (153, 13.4%); Sierra Leone (158, 78.2%); Eswatini (166, 72.7%); Mongolia (227, 72.7%); Guyana (228, 92.0%); Qatar (248, 80.9%); Jordan (254, 81.7%); Togo (295, 85.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (302, 48.0%); Panama (333, 83.7%); Saudi Arabia (353, 77.7%); Ecuador (358, 57.3%); South Sudan (364, 92.2%); Kosovo (423, 36.8%); Bulgaria (437, 83.4%); Lithuania (441, 50.9%); Syria (487, 94.7%); Dominican Republic (531, 90.1%); Hungary (539, 77.2%); Greece (636, 61.5%); Algeria (796, 93.5%); Serbia (1075, 64.0%); San Marino (1227, 63.6%); Kuwait (1256, 92.5%); Burkina Faso (1489, 23.1%); West Bank and Gaza (1489, 33.9%); Mozambique (2208, 96.0%); Gabon (2333, 92.7%); Belgium (2484, 69.1%); Czechia (3611, 56.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states: MP (15, 36.4%); VT (63, 8.5%); ND (105, 55.9%); IN (155, 76.1%); MI (180, 68.9%); MN (301, 83.9%); MS (309, 71.0%); WY (626, 89.7%); ME (684, 94.4%); CT (739, 85.1%); PA (869, 73.4%); MA (1818, 84.7%); IL (2247, 92.6%); RI (2315, 91.0%); NJ (2580, 79.2%); DE (2631, 93.2%); NC (2993, 74.6%); DC (3403, 96.0%); IA (74327, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NS (34, 2.8%); MB (36, 5.2%); AB (55, 12.8%); SK (74, 22.5%); BC (356, 31.4%); QC (1515, 92.8%)

I had to reenter New Zealand's number manually, as they've reached a stage in their recovery that revealed a bug in my code. They have had no new cases now for 11 days, and have one last remaining active case. Well done.

Today's graphic celebrates New Zealand, by plotting its trajectory on a new cases per active case vs. active cases per population phase diagram, compared to Canada, Italy, Japan and the U.S.

CBC News reported, and Ontario Health did not dispute that approximately 700 positive test results at a western Toronto hospital network were not reported to public health authorities over the past several weeks, and will likely result in a technical bump in new cases here as the numbers enter the database. The test samples were collected at the William Osler Hospital Network in Etobicoke and Brampton, and sent to Mount Sinai Hospital for analysis. WOH staff mistakenly thought that MSH staff would report results to public health.

Numbers are in fact up already today in Ontario, but not in Toronto. 3,834 cases now in Ontario, up from yesterday's 3,783. In Toronto, we had a third straight day's decline, from 2,005 eventually to today's 1,880, 63% of our peak and dropping at a rate fast enough to see us theoretically clear of COVID-19 in a mere two years. In Ontario, we are back up over 400 new cases today for the first time in more than a week; in Toronto, new cases have risen for a second day, so the active cases will start rising too, unless recoveries and deaths rise miraculously too.

There was media concern about the possible effect of recent mass public protests against police violence against black people; I did not see any photos however of protesters who weren't masked and maintaining a safe social distance.

Of further concern was the inadequacy of the Ontario Dental Association's response to the provincial government's permission for them to reopen. There is reportedly no way for dentists to obtain N95 masks and other professional PPE, which are being reserved for hospital use. Dentists are also being instructed to screen patients by questionnaire, despite the demonstrated inability of questionnaires to detect asymptomatic patients who are shedding SARS-CoV-2.

There were also reports that a large majority of community-acquired cases of COVID-19 were being spread in illegally large family gatherings, and in workplaces with inadequate protections for employees; the chances of contracting the disease randomly on the street sound quite low.

Three cases showed up in Toronto neighbourhoods which had shown no recent COVID-19 activity: Leaside-Bennington, Milliken, and Steeles. 16 neighbourhoods have shown no activity since neighbourhood stats started being published last week. In the most dangerous neighbourhood in the city, Thistletown-Beaumond Heights, cumulative confirmed cases have risen from 32 to 48 in five days. (Anyone else who is scraping the Toronto neighbourhood COVID-19 data might want to take note that the spellings of four neighbourhood names changed today.)

Stay safe.

2020-05-31

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (14→13), Brazil (24→25), Alabama (35→40), California (53→46), U.S. (48→46), South Africa (51→50), Sweden (64→64), Toronto (66→66), Mexico (67→71), India (95→93), Iran (105→105), France (201→149), Indonesia (175→178), Poland (169→195), Spain (187→209), Israel (432→432), South Korea (851→1091), Norway (1020→1271), Australia (1946→1808), China (213885→77782)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: California, France, Australia, China

Worse: U.S., India

The same: Louisiana, South Africa

Better: Brazil, Sweden, Toronto, Mexico, Iran, Indonesia, Israel

Much better: Alabama, Poland, Spain, South Korea, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14→14, 0.1%), Malta (57→48, 27.7%), Austria (71→65, 5.0%), Japan (137→172, 17.0%), Italy (237→237, 49.7%), Thailand (new→244, 4.2%), Denmark (267→296, 19.2%), Romania (365→387, 66.2%), Germany (367→514, 13.1%), Malaysia (332→626, 52.0%), Singapore (2506→781, 91.5%), Turkey (1136→1236, 44.8%), U.K. (1717→1533, 87.1%), Ontario (2100→2966, 79.1%), New York (3612→4145, 70.7%), Canada (new→18097, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Dominica, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (1, 0.0%); Montenegro (6, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Iceland (14, 0.2%); Lesotho (14, 50.0%); Andorra (23, 4.5%); Cyprus (35, 27.5%); Niger (36, 10.8%); Gambia (37, 33.3%); Burkina Faso (41, 23.1%); Slovenia (42, 1.0%); Taiwan (57, 4.5%); Mongolia (65, 70.0%); Croatia (66, 6.7%); Luxembourg (70, 3.4%); Cameroon (80, 65.7%); Chad (89, 55.5%); Slovakia (96, 15.4%); Switzerland (116, 3.1%); Estonia (127, 20.1%); Sierra Leone (133, 82.0%); Finland (147, 48.3%); Uruguay (179, 38.3%); Saudi Arabia (221, 77.7%); Cuba (245, 18.0%); Eswatini (256, 71.2%); Morocco (274, 66.4%); Guinea-Bissau (275, 64.4%); Tunisia (282, 12.8%); Kosovo (286, 36.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (317, 49.3%); Panama (322, 76.0%); Lithuania (361, 50.5%); South Sudan (364, 92.2%); Hungary (460, 76.8%); Syria (479, 93.4%); Bulgaria (490, 84.6%); Qatar (492, 86.2%); Greece (577, 61.5%); Ecuador (588, 58.5%); Algeria (947, 94.7%); San Marino (1012, 63.6%); Dominican Republic (1018, 90.8%); Serbia (1248, 64.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (2357, 98.9%); Belgium (3831, 69.4%); Czechia (9016, 57.9%); Moldova (29776, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states: MP (27, 45.5%); VT (75, 9.4%); HI (98, 8.8%); IN (184, 78.1%); MI (191, 68.4%); OK (227, 56.6%); ND (258, 64.1%); PA (363, 73.0%); NH (430, 73.5%); CT (586, 85.0%); ME (1332, 95.8%); DE (1389, 94.3%); ID (1581, 41.6%); MA (1690, 84.7%); MN (1848, 91.0%); IL (1982, 94.0%); RI (3733, 91.4%); WY (5624, 90.9%); DC (13242, 97.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); MB (36, 5.2%); NS (58, 3.2%); AB (189, 18.7%); BC (384, 31.8%); QC (2515, 94.0%)

There's a typo today in the CMAJ database, showing a negative number of active cases in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan should still be on that last days to eradication list, but it's hard to tell absent accurate data.

Today's graphic shows those countries who have a lot of people still actively infected (more than 1 in 1,000), where that number is still increasing day by day: Oman, Armenia, Brazil, Djibouti, Peru, Chile, Sao Tome & Principe, Sweden, U.A.E., Spain, France, Maldives, Belarus, Bahrain, Portugal, Russia, Netherlands, Belgium, U.K., U.S., Kuwait. In this list, I'm reading roughly in rows left to right down the chart, so the ones higher up the list are infecting people faster the ones lower down the list. These look to me like countries where it would be critically important to stay indoors and socially distant, because there are a lot of infected people spreading quickly, and your chances of meeting someone and getting infected are highest.

In brighter news, as expected, Canada tentatively eased back over the top of the curve today. Back over, because it had looked like we had reached a peak active caseload of 33,574 on May 16th, but then things blew up and now we look like we're coming down from a slightly higher peak of 33,940. I hope this is the highest peak.

Thailand too had had a brief flare up, but is back on a downward track again, due to a small outbreak among Thai travellers returning from foreign countries.

In Toronto, there have been no reported changes in cumulative case numbers in 19 of the 140 neighbourhoods into which we are officially divided since the launch of official local statistics last Wednesday. I am very fortunate to be living in one of these relatively safe areas: Alderwood, Bayview Village, Blake-Jones, Bridle Path-Sunnybrooke-York Mills, Danforth Village - Toronto, East End-Danforth, Eringate-Centennial-West Deane, Kingsway South, Lambton Baby Point, Lawrence Park North, Leaside-Bennington, Long Branch, Milliken, North Riverdale, Playter Estates-Danforth, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Steeles, Woodbine Corridor, Yonge-Eglinton. Total active cases in Toronto are down for a second day, from 1,964 to 1,905, still more than we had back on May 8th, but it's good that it's decreasing.

Ontario had its third consecutive daily decrease in active cases, bringing it all the way from 4,004 to 3,783 cases, or about where we were last Mother's Day, May 10th.

Stay safe.

2020-05-30

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (17→14), Brazil (28→24), Alabama (35→35), U.S. (56→48), South Africa (55→51), California (59→53), Sweden (98→64), Mexico (63→67), India (100→95), Iran (111→105), Canada (148→148), Poland (164→169), Indonesia (182→175), Spain (176→187), France (201→201), South Korea (878→851), Norway (1090→1020), Thailand (1948→2071)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Louisiana, Brazil, U.S., South Africa, California, Sweden, India, Iran, Indonesia, South Korea, Norway

Better: Alabama, Mexico, Canada, Poland, Spain, France, Thailand

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14→14, 0.1%), Malta (82→57, 31.1%), Austria (167→71, 5.3%), Japan (105→137, 17.5%), Italy (254→237, 51.6%), Denmark (328→267, 19.2%), Malaysia (new→332, 50.7%), Romania (350→365, 67.5%), Germany (459→367, 13.4%), Israel (307→637, 23.0%), China (254→751, 0.2%), Turkey (817→1136, 45.1%), U.K. (23590→1717, 87.7%), Ontario (new→2100, 80.6%), Singapore (1413→2506, 94.7%), New York (5132→3612, 70.9%), Toronto (new→4660, 65.8%), Australia (new→13041, 10.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Dominica, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Seychelles (1, 0.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (2, 0.0%); Montenegro (7, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Lesotho (14, 50.0%); Laos (16, 23.1%); Slovenia (18, 1.1%); Gambia (21, 33.3%); Barbados (26, 17.3%); Andorra (28, 4.9%); Zambia (33, 43.2%); Cyprus (35, 27.5%); Burkina Faso (53, 23.1%); Taiwan (53, 5.3%); Ireland (57, 10.2%); Chad (61, 56.0%); Mongolia (69, 70.7%); Cameroon (80, 65.7%); Niger (87, 14.5%); Panama (94, 68.9%); Georgia (97, 48.7%); Croatia (105, 7.5%); Estonia (112, 20.0%); Slovakia (129, 16.6%); Switzerland (135, 3.7%); Cuba (145, 17.3%); Vietnam (159, 31.0%); Finland (164, 46.9%); Bhutan (170, 85.2%); Luxembourg (182, 4.1%); Uruguay (223, 38.6%); Morocco (245, 67.4%); Lithuania (271, 50.8%); Cabo Verde (290, 74.6%); Saudi Arabia (290, 83.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (406, 50.8%); Kosovo (423, 36.8%); Guinea-Bissau (451, 66.4%); Hungary (454, 76.7%); Bulgaria (461, 85.9%); Sierra Leone (487, 88.9%); San Marino (695, 63.8%); Greece (725, 62.2%); Czechia (834, 57.3%); Ecuador (1078, 57.6%); Algeria (1208, 97.2%); Syria (1513, 98.7%); Bahamas (1973, 65.9%); Serbia (3495, 66.0%); Belgium (4026, 69.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states: MP (27, 45.5%); ID (59, 40.5%); OK (67, 54.0%); HI (69, 8.5%); VT (144, 10.1%); ND (147, 63.4%); MI (182, 66.0%); GU (379, 26.4%); PA (383, 75.2%); NH (474, 78.3%); CT (583, 87.1%); DE (821, 94.7%); MN (839, 94.3%); ME (843, 96.4%); WY (924, 88.9%); MA (930, 85.0%); TN (1014, 89.6%); IL (1707, 94.0%); KS (1796, 81.6%); OR (1796, 90.2%); DC (3511, 96.8%); AR (3737, 87.5%); RI (34095, 92.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); MB (20, 4.7%); SK (56, 26.3%); AB (171, 19.3%); BC (198, 31.8%); QC (4867, 94.7%)

Brazil continues to worsen significantly day by day. They recorded over 30,000 new cases for the first time, and their four-day average new case rate has slowly risen every day for the last four days, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

The United States extends to four days its run of increasing numbers of new cases reported daily, from 16,700 to 23,836.

Today's graph shows current trends on U.S. state new case rates per active case. If all were proceeding smoothly, the post-peak states ought to be seeing a gradual decline in new case rates per active case, or at least a low, steady, manageable number. Instead, in almost every state, COVID-19 is spreading more rapidly from each patient than it was before, resulting in daily increases over the last few days in the number of active cases, just like we had recently in Ontario when we started talking about reopening.

Sweden's numbers were finally updated, although they still lag by a few days. They're somewhat worse than when they last reported a week or so ago, but it's hard to say at a glance due to what looks like a strong weekly cycle of reporting variation.

Locally though, it's generally good but brief news tonight.

Toronto and Ontario have tipped back over onto the post-peak side, after trending back downward over the last four days in their active case counts. In the end, this second bump appears to have lasted just three weeks; it probably won't be the last one, but let's hope the rest will be more sporadic and smaller. Only 123 new cases in Toronto (323 in Ontario), which was fewer than the 156 official recovered cases. That was a near daily occurrence earlier (May 8-11, 13-18), but it's only the second time since then that we've got it right.

Quebec is also on the post-peak list, although with 4,867 active cases to Ontario's 3,933. That leaves almost every Canadian province and territory post-peak, with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador, where after three weeks with no active cases a travel-related case spawned a small new outbreak, a similar situation reported here yesterday in New Brunswick. (And Nunavut, which isn't on either list, because there has never been a case of COVID-19 there.) I believe there's only one more active case in Canada then there was four days ago, so if all goes well the country itself should be post-peak tomorrow.

Stay safe.

2020-05-29

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (17: no new data), Brazil (33→28), Alabama (35→35), South Africa (64→55), U.S. (59→56), California (50→59), Toronto (62→62), Mexico (65→63), Sweden (98: no new data), India (100→100), Iran (121→111), Ontario (132→139), Canada (132→148), Poland (162→164), Spain (262→176), Indonesia (195→182), France (213→201), Malaysia (289→358), South Korea (878→878), Norway (1090→1090), Australia (2461→1837), Thailand (2645→1948)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Spain, Indonesia, France, Australia, Thailand

Worse: U.S., Mexico

Better: Alabama, Toronto, India, Ontario, Poland, South Korea, Norway

Much better: California, Canada, Malaysia

N/A: Louisiana, Sweden

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14→14, 0.1%), Malta (127→82, 34.4%), Japan (91→105, 17.7%), Austria (168→167, 6.9%), China (130→254, 0.2%), Italy (278→254, 54.6%), Israel (183→307, 23.2%), Denmark (183→328, 20.5%), Romania (342→350, 68.6%), Germany (314→459, 14.0%), Turkey (888→817, 45.2%), Singapore (1295→1413, 95.2%), New York (10298→5132, 71.2%), U.K. (5130→23590, 88.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak regions: Belize (0, 0.0%), Eritrea (0, 0.0%), NT CAN (0, 0.0%), PE CAN (0, 0.0%), Papua New Guinea (0, 0.0%), Saint Lucia (0, 0.0%), Timor-Leste (0, 0.0%), YT CAN (0, 0.0%), Dominica (1, 0.0%), Seychelles (2, 0.0%), Saint Kitts and Nevis (3, 0.0%), Trinidad and Tobago (5, 0.0%), Montenegro (8, 0.0%), Brunei (14, 0.9%), Iceland (14, 0.1%), Lesotho (14, 50.0%), Western Sahara (14, 33.3%), Gambia (15, 33.3%), Laos (16, 23.1%), Slovenia (16, 1.1%), Barbados (26, 17.3%), Andorra (31, 6.8%), Zambia (33, 43.2%), Cyprus (37, 28.3%), Bhutan (48, 75.3%), Burkina Faso (53, 23.1%), HI USA (53, 8.2%), Ireland (54, 9.8%), ID USA (58, 40.2%), Taiwan (58, 5.7%), Chad (59, 62.5%), OK USA (62, 55.7%), SK CAN (68, 29.2%), MB CAN (69, 7.3%), ND USA (73, 66.6%), Niger (73, 15.3%), Croatia (75, 7.8%), Cameroon (84, 59.2%), Georgia (115, 53.0%), Cabo Verde (119, 68.4%), Estonia (121, 20.6%), Uruguay (123, 37.6%), Luxembourg (130, 3.9%), AB CAN (134, 19.7%), Finland (142, 44.7%), BC CAN (155, 31.8%), NH USA (161, 76.8%), Slovakia (172, 18.6%), Vietnam (189, 31.0%), Lithuania (192, 51.7%), Botswana (193, 80.0%), Tunisia (232, 14.3%), Morocco (254, 69.4%), Saudi Arabia (258, 84.6%), Comoros (303, 93.8%), VT USA (303, 10.9%), PA USA (334, 75.8%), San Marino (342, 64.1%), Latvia (389, 68.8%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (435, 52.7%), Guinea-Bissau (461, 71.7%), Bulgaria (462, 87.3%), SD USA (577, 76.3%), DE USA (583, 93.3%), Jordan (588, 86.6%), TN USA (609, 86.4%), Czechia (656, 57.6%), Greece (672, 62.3%), WY USA (677, 96.0%), CT USA (731, 88.4%), Switzerland (735, 4.2%), IL USA (764, 94.2%), ME USA (872, 95.7%), Mongolia (914, 95.9%), MA USA (1011, 85.9%), Algeria (1487, 97.2%), KS USA (1796, 81.6%), NM USA (1943, 98.2%), Bahamas (1973, 65.9%), Ecuador (2465, 61.6%), DC USA (2480, 95.4%), Hungary (2736, 81.6%), IA USA (3296, 97.4%), Serbia (3538, 66.3%), Somalia (3573, 94.2%), Belgium (4044, 70.1%), OR USA (5113, 90.2%), Sierra Leone (5330, 90.5%), MN USA (14922, 99.8%), RI USA (30170, 92.3%)

The City of Toronto has been publishing a breakdown since Wednesday of cumulative cases in each of 140 official neighbourhoods. The numbers seem a little noisy still, in that some neighbourhoods see numbers going up and down (when you would expect only up), and after the first day they added 2,000+ uncategorized cases, but it's a fantastic local resource. I can see that there have been no new cases in my neighbourhood during this time, nor in 46 other neighbourhoods including the ones immediately adjacent to us. The neighbourhood where the St. Lawrence Market is had one new case reported since Wednesday, bringing them to 102.

It makes me feel ashamed that the neighbourhoods that have the highest concentration of cases appear to be those with a lot of nursing homes, or residents of ethnicities overrepresented in the caregiver community.

The overall situation in Toronto continues to worsen, with active cases back over two thousand (2,005) for the first time since May 7th. Each active case is responsible for on average 0.09 new cases each day, and if it continues even at that rate, eventually even currently safe neighbourhoods will no longer be safe.

Ontario had an insignificant dip in its number of active cases today, from 4,004 to 3,997. Changes in active cases are the net difference between new infections, and recoveries + deaths. Since Ontario had seven more deaths today (41) than yesterday, I think the best that you could say about our situation is that we are staying steady; we are not clearly on the declining side of a bell curve.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has reversed his long-standing position against a regional approach to reopening the province, against the wishes of his medical officer of health. It looks to me as though reopening has only worked elsewhere where the number of cases is down to a level that new cases can easily be identified and traced, and resources exist to rapidly identify, test and isolate contacts. I imagine that there are small towns in Ontario where these conditions have been met. Regional reopening only seems to work where there is a way to control people's movement between affected and unaffected regions; I presume this is what the provincial government is trying to figure out right now.

A good example of what goes wrong if you can't control interregional movement is what's going on in New Brunswick right now, where they had managed to get down to zero active cases for three days before a family doctor who travelled across the border to Quebec, did not self-isolate on return, and has since infected seven other patients, two in ICU. That's still a small enough number for public health officials to manage, as long as it doesn't happen too frequently.

Stay safe.

2020-05-28

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (38→33), Alabama (44→35), California (63→50), U.S. (56→59), Toronto (62→62), South Africa (63→64), Mexico (66→65), India (93→100), Iran (121→121), Canada (129→132), Ontario (124→132), Poland (178→162), Indonesia (205→195), France (943→213), Spain (380→262), Malaysia (255→289), South Korea (1115→878), Norway (1218→1090), Australia (3056→2461), Thailand (4719→2645)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, Alabama, California, Poland, Indonesia, France, Spain, South Korea, Norway, Australia, Thailand

The same: Mexico

Better: U.S., Toronto, South Africa, India, Iran, Canada, Ontario

Much better: Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14→14, 0.1%), Japan (105→91, 18.3%), Malta (165→127, 39.9%), China (225→130, 0.2%), Austria (241→168, 7.2%), Denmark (311→183, 20.0%), Israel (176→183, 22.9%), Italy (369→278, 56.7%), Germany (255→314, 14.2%), Romania (685→342, 68.9%), Louisiana (277→344, 40.9%), Turkey (1223→888, 45.9%), Singapore (1612→1295, 95.1%), U.K. (6379→5130, 89.2%), New York (8776→10298, 71.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak regions: Belize (0, 0.0%), Eritrea (0, 0.0%), NT CAN (0, 0.0%), PE CAN (0, 0.0%), Papua New Guinea (0, 0.0%), Saint Lucia (0, 0.0%), Timor-Leste (0, 0.0%), YT CAN (0, 0.0%), Dominica (2, 0.0%), Seychelles (3, 0.0%), Saint Kitts and Nevis (4, 0.0%), Trinidad and Tobago (6, 0.0%), Montenegro (9, 0.0%), Brunei (14, 0.9%), Gambia (14, 41.7%), Lesotho (14, 50.0%), Slovenia (14, 1.3%), Western Sahara (14, 33.3%), Laos (16, 23.1%), Barbados (23, 17.3%), Andorra (26, 7.3%), Zambia (33, 43.2%), Cyprus (36, 28.1%), Taiwan (37, 5.3%), HI USA (51, 8.5%), ID USA (51, 37.9%), Chad (52, 62.0%), Ireland (54, 9.6%), SK CAN (54, 29.2%), Finland (66, 43.2%), MB CAN (69, 7.3%), OK USA (76, 58.9%), Croatia (84, 8.6%), ND USA (89, 72.6%), Georgia (92, 51.3%), Mongolia (94, 79.5%), Cabo Verde (95, 65.6%), BC CAN (108, 33.6%), Vietnam (109, 31.0%), Burkina Faso (110, 23.4%), Luxembourg (110, 4.2%), Bhutan (118, 79.0%), Switzerland (120, 4.0%), AB CAN (139, 20.9%), Niger (150, 17.3%), NH USA (155, 74.0%), Botswana (193, 80.0%), Slovakia (196, 19.3%), Bahamas (244, 63.7%), MS USA (250, 86.5%), Guinea-Bissau (252, 64.0%), Morocco (282, 69.6%), Comoros (303, 93.8%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (314, 52.6%), SD USA (330, 74.7%), Estonia (331, 23.9%), NC USA (333, 88.8%), Togo (333, 92.2%), Saudi Arabia (337, 87.7%), Ghana (352, 75.9%), El Salvador (395, 92.5%), Lithuania (404, 54.1%), Czechia (414, 57.2%), PA USA (417, 77.1%), Tunisia (428, 15.3%), San Marino (447, 64.8%), Latvia (457, 69.0%), Bulgaria (543, 89.3%), Sierra Leone (557, 92.3%), WY USA (591, 93.3%), Equatorial Guinea (702, 84.9%), TX USA (707, 92.9%), MN USA (762, 94.8%), Jordan (914, 89.8%), TN USA (924, 85.5%), DE USA (1039, 94.5%), Liberia (1045, 92.5%), Serbia (1097, 66.2%), IL USA (1107, 94.5%), Cuba (1306, 19.7%), MA USA (1401, 86.7%), RI USA (1618, 92.4%), OR USA (1630, 90.3%), CT USA (1827, 89.9%), ME USA (1867, 98.5%), Congo (Brazzaville) (1885, 86.5%), Greece (1980, 64.4%), Hungary (3170, 81.8%), Belgium (4848, 70.3%), UT USA (5102, 97.8%), Kosovo (5284, 39.0%), KS USA (12135, 80.1%), Guinea (50981, 99.9%)

Toronto and Ontario both rebounded today, Toronto gaining 10% of its active case count in new cases, ending back up at 1,982, a level we haven't seen since May 8th. More simply put, we had our first 200+ day after three days below 200 new cases. Ontario likewise is at 10% active per new, and now has 4,004 cases, also where we were on May 8th. Ontario didn't quite get back up to 400, seeing only 383 newly confirmed cases.

The City of Toronto has started publishing maps showing the cumulative infection rate by neighbourhood, which appears to depend on income, number of nursing homes, and random chance. If you use the interactive tool they provide to filter out institutional outbreaks, you can see that income becomes the dominant factor. The rate ranges widely across the city, from 45 cases per 100,000 in St. Andrew-Windfields to 1,525 in Humber Heights-Westmount. Our neighbourhood is at the low end, the yahoos on the Danforth notwithstanding, at 103; the city as a whole currently averages about 370.

The situation in Brazil continues to worsen. They are still at the point where they are setting daily records for new cases (26,417 today), and about a thousand people a day are dying.

A while ago, I started looking at delay-adjusted case fatality ratios for my regions of interest. As some of them are reaching the end of their curve (when the delay adjustment converges), it's interesting to see how different the CFRs are. France tops the list at 19-20% (depending on delay), followed by Italy at 14-15%, with countries like Canada (8-9%) and Spain (9-10%) in the middle, and countries like South Korea (2.4%) and Singapore (0.1%) at the bottom. Clearly, France and Italy are tremendously underreporting their cases (even more when you look at their excess mortality stats); Singapore is likely fortunate in that their outbreak has been largely confined to younger foreign workers who are unlikely to die.

Stay safe.

2020-05-27

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (41→38), Alabama (37→44), U.S. (51→56), Toronto (56→62), California (62→63), South Africa (61→63), Mexico (65→66), India (89→93), Sweden (98→98), Iran (124→121), Ontario (113→124), Canada (113→129), Poland (166→178), Indonesia (177→205), Malaysia (236→255), Spain (392→380), South Korea (1713→1115), Norway (1193→1218)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Spain, South Korea

Worse: Brazil, Iran

Better: California, South Africa, Mexico, India, Poland, Malaysia, Norway

Much better: Alabama, U.S., Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Indonesia

N/A: Sweden

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (52→14, 0.9%), Japan (103→105, 20.5%), Malta (537→165, 42.1%), Israel (157→176, 23.3%), China (585→225, 0.2%), Austria (348→241, 7.7%), Germany (298→255, 14.1%), Louisiana (205→277, 39.3%), Denmark (308→311, 21.1%), Australia (366→369, 9.9%), Italy (407→369, 60.2%), Thailand (103→654, 4.5%), Romania (479→685, 72.7%), Turkey (1184→1223, 46.5%), Singapore (1871→1612, 96.4%), France (2923→3235, 50.3%), U.K. (16729→6379, 89.9%), New York (14397→8776, 71.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak regions: Belize (0, 0.0%), NT CAN (0, 0.0%), PE CAN (0, 0.0%), Papua New Guinea (0, 0.0%), Saint Lucia (0, 0.0%), YT CAN (0, 0.0%), Eritrea (1, 0.0%), Timor-Leste (1, 0.0%), Dominica (3, 0.0%), Seychelles (4, 0.0%), Saint Kitts and Nevis (5, 0.0%), Trinidad and Tobago (7, 0.0%), Montenegro (10, 0.0%), Brunei (14, 1.9%), Gambia (14, 41.7%), Lesotho (14, 62.5%), NL CAN (14, 1.0%), Slovenia (14, 1.3%), Laos (16, 23.1%), Barbados (23, 17.3%), Taiwan (32, 5.7%), Zambia (33, 43.2%), Andorra (36, 8.5%), Jordan (38, 50.6%), Ireland (54, 9.3%), ID USA (68, 42.3%), MB CAN (69, 7.3%), Switzerland (73, 3.9%), SK CAN (76, 32.5%), HI USA (87, 10.4%), ND USA (87, 71.5%), Croatia (91, 9.0%), GU USA (91, 24.2%), Chad (93, 73.0%), Luxembourg (102, 4.5%), Georgia (105, 55.7%), Vietnam (109, 31.0%), OK USA (112, 64.2%), BC CAN (114, 34.0%), Slovakia (114, 19.3%), Tunisia (133, 13.8%), NS CAN (145, 4.1%), Niger (149, 18.2%), MT USA (155, 7.0%), AB CAN (159, 21.7%), Eswatini (168, 77.3%), Togo (176, 86.5%), Bhutan (195, 82.7%), Cabo Verde (207, 73.9%), MS USA (212, 80.3%), West Bank and Gaza (224, 30.3%), NH USA (232, 79.1%), Finland (235, 59.4%), NC USA (255, 81.9%), Guinea-Bissau (259, 71.2%), WY USA (294, 91.3%), Estonia (299, 24.1%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (328, 53.8%), Bahamas (329, 64.8%), AK USA (338, 19.4%), Cuba (367, 19.8%), Latvia (406, 68.3%), TX USA (417, 90.3%), Guyana (461, 94.3%), Bulgaria (477, 89.9%), Mongolia (510, 95.5%), Lithuania (518, 54.3%), Morocco (568, 75.0%), Czechia (628, 58.2%), Ghana (677, 78.2%), MN USA (681, 92.9%), UT USA (682, 95.0%), SD USA (719, 74.4%), PA USA (738, 82.0%), Somalia (834, 88.9%), Saudi Arabia (835, 94.3%), KS USA (857, 80.1%), RI USA (891, 92.4%), El Salvador (1005, 94.5%), OR USA (1139, 90.2%), Guinea (1584, 94.5%), San Marino (1759, 65.1%), MA USA (1909, 86.9%), DE USA (2011, 96.7%), Paraguay (2022, 59.3%), Greece (2369, 64.7%), Hungary (2543, 82.2%), Belgium (2803, 70.2%), ME USA (4065, 97.9%), CT USA (5140, 91.2%), Serbia (8865, 66.8%)

Toronto had a fifth consecutive day with fewer new cases, gradually down from 258 on May 22nd to 152 today. We had our second day in nine days where the number of active cases decreased: on May 18th when the current upturn started, we've risen up to 1,931, which is about where we were on May 8th. Two more days of this, and we may return to the post-peak list.

Ontario had its first decline in active cases since May 16th (3,412), dropping from yesterday's 4,110 back down to 3,956.

In both Toronto and Ontario, the ratio of new cases to active cases is around 7-8%, suggesting that we are close to or below equilibrium.

The United States still leads the world in active cases, with about 1.2M by JHU numbers, which say that the U.S. has seen about 1.7M cases of whom 0.4M have recovered and 0.1M have died. Two weeks ago, these numbers were 1.1M = 1.4M - 0.2M - 0.1M. As I see it, there's a problem here, which is that the U.S. is reporting that fewer than 16% of active cases from two weeks ago have either recovered or died. The most likely explanation to me is that the recovered statistics are drastically underreported.

That's why when I graph active cases, I assume that at least 75% of active cases lagged 14 days have recovered, and accept the official number only where it is higher.

By this measure, the United States is still the world leader by a wide margin, but has only 653,000 confirmed or probable cases that should still be active. The U.K. is either in fourth place with 96,000 (my estimate) or second with 228,000 (JHU). Russia is in third place either way (188K or 227K), and Brazil rounds out the fourth either way with its plausibly reported 208K. The next ten are (in different orders, but this is mine) India, Peru, Spain, Italy, France, Chile.

I note with some concern South Korea's switch back to the pre-peak list today, after an increase of 34 to 735 in their active case count today pushed them back up to where they were more than a week ago. Not that long ago, they had spent four weeks with their new per active ratio below 1%; today it is 5%, reportedly due to the ongoing effects of the nightclub outbreak at the beginning of the month.

Today's graphic charts these top ten nations and shows the seven-day forward trends for their rate of new cases per active, which is improving for Peru and Spain, and worsening for the rest.

Stay safe.

2020-05-26

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama* (44→37), Brazil (36→41), U.S. (48→51), Toronto (49→56), South Africa (61→61), California (62→62), Mexico (65→65), India (87→89), Sweden* (98→98), Canada (113→113), Ontario (102→113), Iran (115→124), Poland (161→166), Indonesia (159→177), Malaysia (304→236), Spain (238→392), Norway (1050→1193)

* See commentary

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Malaysia

Better: U.S., South Africa, California, Mexico, India, Sweden, Canada, Iran, Poland

Much better: Brazil, Toronto, Ontario, Indonesia, Spain, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (63→52, 2.3%), Japan (101→103, 22.2%), Thailand (49→103, 4.1%), Israel (151→157, 24.3%), Louisiana (220→205, 37.0%), Germany (290→298, 14.9%), Denmark (234→308, 21.4%), Austria (386→348, 7.8%), Australia (307→366, 10.0%), Italy (477→407, 62.6%), Romania (525→479, 74.6%), Malta (537→537, 44.4%), China (819→585, 0.2%), Turkey (1712→1184, 46.9%), Singapore (40557→1871, 96.2%), France (2708→2923, 50.0%), South Korea (576→5094, 10.2%), New York (7254→14397, 71.9%), U.K. (2356→16729, 90.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak regions: Belize (0, 0.0%), NT CAN (0, 0.0%), PE CAN (0, 0.0%), Papua New Guinea (0, 0.0%), Saint Lucia (0, 0.0%), YT CAN (0, 0.0%), Eritrea (2, 0.0%), Timor-Leste (2, 0.0%), Dominica (4, 0.0%), Seychelles (5, 0.0%), Saint Kitts and Nevis (6, 0.0%), Trinidad and Tobago (8, 0.0%), Montenegro (11, 0.0%), NL CAN (14, 1.0%), Gambia (19, 50.0%), Brunei (25, 2.8%), NS CAN (28, 3.6%), Andorra (35, 8.5%), Jordan (35, 49.7%), Slovenia (36, 2.1%), Taiwan (39, 6.8%), HI USA (42, 10.7%), GU USA (47, 27.5%), Croatia (67, 9.1%), Tunisia (71, 13.8%), Slovakia (78, 19.7%), SK CAN (80, 36.8%), Switzerland (85, 4.5%), West Bank and Gaza (93, 28.0%), Paraguay (104, 58.5%), Niger (107, 18.2%), Luxembourg (109, 4.6%), ND USA (113, 76.8%), MB CAN (118, 8.3%), BC CAN (136, 36.0%), Cuba (137, 20.3%), Georgia (142, 61.4%), AB CAN (151, 22.8%), Guinea-Bissau (164, 70.6%), Togo (178, 87.4%), Finland (192, 56.5%), MS USA (213, 74.4%), NH USA (216, 83.7%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (229, 54.4%), Eswatini (232, 72.0%), Congo (Brazzaville) (235, 84.3%), MI USA (298, 82.6%), Estonia (305, 24.6%), MT USA (321, 7.4%), Morocco (338, 77.2%), TX USA (395, 89.9%), Somalia (398, 90.8%), Chad (409, 83.8%), NC USA (413, 77.7%), Mongolia (414, 94.5%), Guyana (461, 94.3%), Lithuania (490, 56.0%), PA USA (509, 84.0%), Rwanda (509, 67.5%), Vietnam (526, 34.8%), WY USA (576, 91.3%), Ghana (578, 78.7%), Cote d'Ivoire (618, 95.2%), Bulgaria (674, 91.7%), KS USA (709, 83.2%), San Marino (723, 66.0%), OR USA (811, 91.9%), KY USA (1021, 86.2%), Greece (1153, 64.8%), Latvia (1243, 67.6%), Moldova (1286, 95.6%), RI USA (1363, 92.7%), Belgium (1893, 70.2%), NE USA (2106, 95.0%), OK USA (2343, 82.9%), Saudi Arabia (2523, 97.0%), NJ USA (2532, 79.7%), UT USA (2602, 97.2%), Uruguay (2876, 42.6%), Hungary (4913, 82.1%), Serbia (5732, 66.6%), Czechia (6460, 59.7%), MA USA (7821, 89.2%), Senegal (10057, 98.7%)

We had a mixed day in Toronto today. On the bright side, we had only 161 new cases, which is better than the six days of 200+ that we recently had, and I think we might have a few more sub-200 days before the effects of the most recent oppositional behaviour are seen. People are tired of staying safe, and it's really hard to explain to someone who hasn't lost a loved one, or who isn't close to someone who is at risk due to age or preexisting medical condition, how much the whole country is counting on them to do their part to keep any asymptomatic infection they may have to themselves. Our new cases today were 8% of our active total, which is still high enough to suggest an R_t value greater than one, or an epidemic that is continuing to worsen. And we were up 36 to 1,978 active cases today, which is a level that we hadn't previously seen since May 7th, two thirds of the peak of close to 3,000 that we set on April 23rd. Our hospital numbers are drifting downward for now, though they are sure to come back up, but any break our healthcare workers can get is a good one. Only seven people were recorded as having died of COVID-19 today. Toronto's four-day average increase in active cases is down to 1.36%, and coming down fast enough that we might switch over to the post-peak list again in a day or two. So, mixed.

In Ontario, where the Armed Forces have been brought in to take over the worst run nursing homes, a military report was scathing about the conditions troops found. Premier Ford acknowledged that the situation was serious and needed to change; he did not reportedly draw a connection to the efforts by his government and the previous Liberal government to eliminate oversight of nursing homes in the province.

Not sure what happened to the people who were updating the Swedish Wikipedia page from whence I was fetching my data. They haven't posted anything since May 20th. I hope they're okay. Alabama is several days behind in reporting too.

New Zealand has now gone a sixth straight day with no new cases; Malta managed its first day with no new cases in a couple of weeks.

Canada and the United States have seen four straight days of decreasing new case numbers. Toronto four days, New York State three days.

Stay safe.

2020-05-25

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (32→36), U.S. (47→48), Toronto (46→49), South Africa (58→61), California (63→62), Mexico (61→65), India (88→87), Sweden (98→98), Ontario (101→102), Canada (109→113), Iran (109→115), Indonesia (129→159), Poland (149→161), Spain (169→238), Malaysia (458→304)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Malaysia

The same: California, India

Better: U.S., Toronto, South Africa, Mexico, Sweden, Ontario, Canada, Iran, Poland

Much better: Brazil, Indonesia, Spain

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Norway (15→15, 10.1%), Thailand (54→49, 3.9%), New Zealand (151→63, 2.4%), Japan (61→101, 24.1%), Israel (145→151, 25.8%), Louisiana (new→220, 35.7%), Denmark (225→234, 22.4%), Germany (316→290, 15.2%), Australia (454→307, 9.9%), Austria (636→386, 8.1%), Italy (451→477, 65.4%), Romania (531→525, 76.1%), Malta (new→537, 44.4%), South Korea (2086→576, 9.9%), China (2487→819, 0.2%), Alabama (470→1045, 96.5%), Turkey (2592→1712, 47.7%), U.K. (2072→2356, 88.8%), France (2032→2708, 50.8%), New York (3841→7254, 71.9%), Singapore (5721→40557, 98.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak regions: Belize (0, 0.0%), NT CAN (0, 0.0%), PE CAN (0, 0.0%), Papua New Guinea (0, 0.0%), YT CAN (0, 0.0%), Saint Lucia (1, 0.0%), Eritrea (3, 0.0%), Timor-Leste (3, 0.0%), Dominica (5, 0.0%), Seychelles (6, 0.0%), Saint Kitts and Nevis (7, 0.0%), Trinidad and Tobago (9, 0.0%), Montenegro (12, 0.0%), Taiwan (24, 7.2%), Brunei (25, 2.8%), NL CAN (25, 1.6%), Gambia (30, 58.3%), NS CAN (34, 4.1%), GU USA (36, 25.3%), Slovenia (44, 2.3%), Andorra (48, 11.5%), Croatia (54, 10.2%), HI USA (54, 11.0%), Paraguay (62, 58.1%), Tunisia (63, 15.6%), Cuba (69, 19.0%), SK CAN (76, 38.8%), Switzerland (82, 4.4%), Luxembourg (88, 4.6%), Slovakia (89, 21.3%), West Bank and Gaza (111, 28.9%), Tanzania (140, 42.8%), AB CAN (150, 24.4%), Georgia (160, 64.8%), BC CAN (180, 37.2%), Congo (Brazzaville) (185, 84.3%), Ghana (190, 79.0%), Finland (204, 55.3%), Estonia (211, 25.1%), Eswatini (229, 72.7%), Guinea-Bissau (233, 76.2%), MS USA (241, 69.2%), MB CAN (247, 8.8%), Lithuania (253, 59.4%), Vietnam (262, 34.2%), MI USA (265, 81.6%), Niger (285, 20.2%), PA USA (286, 86.0%), Tajikistan (320, 90.4%), VT USA (326, 11.6%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (331, 56.2%), MT USA (341, 7.7%), Rwanda (424, 69.6%), Togo (440, 92.2%), Morocco (511, 79.2%), Guyana (529, 96.1%), OR USA (539, 90.8%), TX USA (626, 92.3%), Moldova (665, 93.5%), NH USA (751, 93.6%), Somalia (1026, 95.0%), RI USA (1058, 92.4%), DC USA (1079, 96.8%), NC USA (1297, 76.2%), Bulgaria (1528, 93.1%), NE USA (1534, 94.6%), Belgium (1760, 70.8%), Mongolia (1868, 98.2%), NJ USA (2099, 79.6%), CO USA (2100, 89.3%), Maldives (2727, 96.8%), KS USA (2799, 83.2%), Greece (3568, 65.1%), MA USA (4182, 89.8%), Czechia (4506, 60.7%), Netherlands (40525, 68.6%)

Six days in a row of 200+ people contracting COVID-19 in Toronto and 400+ in Ontario, thanks to relaxed public attitudes and fewer restrictions on business operations in the province. Today, the premier announced an indefinite delay on further lifting of restrictions, such as permitting people to meet in groups of more than five. Although the federal government recommends the use of face coverings where social distancing is not possible, neither the province nor the city have made it mandatory, despite frequent calls to do so.

Surgical masks catch all exhaled coronaviruses, as a widely publicized paper in Nature Medicine reported several weeks ago. (For the sake of safety, they ran the tests with similarly sized coronaviruses to SARS-CoV-2, but not the actual novel coronavirus that is killing us now.) They also catch all influenza viruses, and no rhinoviruses. So if everyone wore masks all the time in public, then no one would catch COVID-19 or the flu from a stranger in public. Of course, even in the 30-50 countries in the world that have some sort of requirement on the covering of the face in all public situations, none exclude ineffectual loose fabrics from meeting the letter of the requirement, and enforcement varies but is never perfect. So they're not a panacea, or a replacement for washing hands, social distancing, or quarantine. And if they give anyone much of a personal sense of security, they're missing the point. But it's something that people can be encouraged to do that's helpful.

There are a lot of asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 in the community. You could be one of them, and exhaling an infectious dose of SARS-CoV-2 with each breath. Unless you are being tested daily, you have no way of telling, and even then a mistake could be made. So don't take chances with the lives of the strangers around you: they could be someone that you need in your life, or someone who lives with them, or just someone whose life should have value to you.

Today's charts show countries that have universal public face covering requirements vs. those that don't. The ones that do tend not to not to have very high rates of new cases per active case; they also tend not to have extremely low rates. My intuitive guess, unsupported by evidence, is that this is because enough people are wearing proper masks properly to slow down contagion, and enough people are blithely wearing useless masks improperly to keep it going.

Stay safe.

2020-05-24

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (15→16), Brazil (30→29), Toronto (41→43), U.S. (51→49), Mexico (63→62), South Africa (67→62), California (69→69), India (91→88), Sweden (98→98), Ontario (103→105), Iran (108→108), Canada (113→109), Indonesia (136→119), Malta (116→123), Poland (133→148), Spain (152→158)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: South Africa, Canada, Indonesia

Worse: U.S., India

The same: Brazil, Mexico

Better: Louisiana, Toronto, California, Sweden, Ontario, Iran, Malta, Spain

Much better: Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Norway (14→15, 9.7%), Thailand (39→35, 4.7%), New Zealand (34→61, 2.9%), Japan (89→70, 28.0%), Austria (116→133, 8.7%), Israel (154→148, 28.2%), Denmark (141→159, 23.2%), Germany (482→261, 16.5%), Alabama (207→299, 84.4%), South Korea (133→309, 10.4%), Italy (406→388, 68.3%), Australia (345→390, 10.6%), Romania (1013→537, 76.8%), China (610→610, 0.2%), Malaysia (737→613, 44.6%), France (788→679, 50.4%), U.K. (626→707, 90.5%), Turkey (2097→2039, 48.2%), New York (3029→2927, 72.0%), Singapore (5119→43241, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak regions: Belize (0, 0.0%), NT CAN (0, 0.0%), PE CAN (0, 0.0%), Papua New Guinea (0, 0.0%), YT CAN (0, 0.0%), Mauritius (1, 0.0%), Western Sahara (1, 0.0%), Saint Lucia (3, 0.0%), Eritrea (5, 0.0%), Timor-Leste (5, 0.0%), Dominica (7, 0.0%), Seychelles (8, 0.0%), Saint Kitts and Nevis (9, 0.0%), Trinidad and Tobago (11, 0.0%), Montenegro (14, 0.5%), NL CAN (14, 1.6%), Monaco (21, 6.5%), Tunisia (30, 16.0%), Estonia (31, 26.2%), Holy See (32, 48.0%), MB CAN (33, 8.8%), Taiwan (36, 8.7%), NS CAN (40, 4.7%), Grenada (41, 41.7%), Uganda (42, 58.7%), Andorra (55, 13.6%), Cuba (57, 21.1%), Paraguay (62, 60.1%), SK CAN (62, 42.1%), Ireland (64, 16.5%), Croatia (66, 11.4%), Slovakia (71, 23.7%), HI USA (86, 12.6%), Sao Tome and Principe (88, 41.5%), Slovenia (118, 3.1%), Switzerland (132, 5.7%), Niger (138, 21.0%), Tanzania (140, 42.8%), Georgia (168, 69.5%), San Marino (182, 65.9%), VT USA (184, 11.2%), Guinea-Bissau (204, 79.4%), Lithuania (204, 57.2%), Ghana (207, 82.3%), Uruguay (225, 41.6%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (230, 58.6%), MI USA (235, 79.1%), Morocco (261, 79.6%), Burma (289, 54.5%), KY USA (329, 89.7%), PA USA (332, 86.9%), Luxembourg (349, 5.5%), BC CAN (366, 42.3%), Vietnam (377, 36.7%), Sri Lanka (407, 76.4%), KS USA (415, 83.5%), WA USA (504, 88.9%), OK USA (560, 83.5%), Burkina Faso (633, 28.0%), OR USA (634, 92.8%), Bahrain (661, 94.7%), TN USA (675, 85.8%), AK USA (710, 20.5%), S