COVID-19 Commentary Archive

I’ve been posting commentary on Facebook about the “days to 1%” line in my Google Sheet linked above. Here is a sample of what I’ve written.

Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last seven days (four before 2020-08-29) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases. Starting on 2020-08-02, in regions where active cases are still increasing but more than 1% of the population has been infected, I show an estimate of how many days it will be until 40% of the population is infected, the point at which herd immunity might begin to slow down spread among survivors in the most optimistic scenario.

2021-01-09

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (101HI→102HI), California (113HI→114HI), Israel (131HI→125HI), Alabama (150HI→144HI), New York (144HI→144HI), Louisiana (149HI→149HI), U.S. (173HI→161HI), South Africa (199HI→191HI), Ontario (194HI→196HI), Sweden (202HI→202HI), Malta (235HI→206HI), Toronto (210HI→210HI), Canada (233HI→233HI), Norway (314HI→314HI), France (400HI→346HI), Brazil (412HI→359HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Turkey (490HI→501HI), Mexico (536HI→515HI), Singapore (7228HI→7374HI), Malaysia (48→47), Japan (89→78), Thailand (94→96), Indonesia (117→111), New Zealand (1811→1811), Australia (2983→3581), China (13779→13779)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Alabama, U.S., South Africa, Malta, France, Brazil, Japan, Indonesia

The same: Malaysia

Better: U.K., California, New York, Louisiana, Ontario, Sweden, Toronto, Canada, Norway, Thailand

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (320→381, 63.8%), Iran (788→729, 61.6%), India (682→758, 22.2%), Austria (4211→1958, 27.1%), Romania (905→2515, 43.5%), South Korea (new→2622, 97.2%), Germany (728→4336, 87.3%), Italy (new→12769, 80.2%), Poland (new→323725, 52.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (74): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Cameroon (14, 36.1%); Central African Republic (14, 1.1%); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tajikistan (14, 1.3%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Papua New Guinea (37, 20.1%); Benin (53, 9.1%); Liechtenstein (54, 39.1%); Timor-Leste (70, 40.9%); Mauritius (71, 5.9%); Djibouti (91, 1.3%); Luxembourg (102, 26.6%); Azerbaijan (117, 24.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (135, 12.3%); Mauritania (156, 51.6%); Uzbekistan (185, 10.4%); Croatia (187, 22.9%); Belize (194, 11.8%); Burundi (199, 71.9%); Moldova (260, 44.0%); Armenia (278, 25.7%); Equatorial Guinea (278, 1.9%); Saudi Arabia (285, 3.3%); Jordan (301, 17.9%); Nepal (347, 10.8%); Kosovo (357, 50.4%); Kyrgyzstan (358, 23.7%); Jamaica (369, 50.0%); West Bank and Gaza (382, 61.8%); Iraq (384, 56.2%); Georgia (385, 29.4%); Iceland (423, 10.7%); North Macedonia (423, 72.1%); Taiwan (450, 39.4%); Morocco (478, 41.1%); Niger (484, 89.2%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); Mali (512, 89.3%); Sudan (517, 70.0%); Yemen (556, 15.3%); Sri Lanka (650, 74.3%); Libya (669, 80.8%); Peru (796, 14.1%); Paraguay (808, 83.8%); Finland (1226, 59.0%); Philippines (1293, 30.3%); Uganda (1309, 84.6%); Burma (1313, 69.5%); Angola (1565, 87.2%); Pakistan (1611, 32.1%); Ukraine (1680, 85.4%); Lithuania (1954, 95.9%); Kenya (2084, 54.8%); Belarus (2165, 72.7%); Serbia (2264, 83.0%); Somalia (3401, 82.9%); Guyana (3537, 27.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3806, 88.6%); Algeria (4077, 97.5%); United Arab Emirates (4538, 93.5%); Netherlands (5116, 97.9%); Ecuador (5669, 46.9%); Bangladesh (6515, 46.0%); Hungary (7480, 83.2%); Venezuela (12230, 40.3%); Syria (15319, 97.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (7): GU (257, 6.3%); NC (410, 77.6%); MP (453, 89.9%); MI (461, 70.0%); SD (501, 26.0%); PA (1310, 81.9%); ND (7189, 16.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (2, 0.0%); NS (14, 6.7%); NL (27, 3.6%); BC (362, 67.0%); AB (8832, 68.3%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Bolivia (2263), Colombia (18221, 2-day record streak), Cuba (344), Indonesia (10617, 3-day record streak), Ireland (8227), Japan (7863, 4-day record streak), Lebanon (5440, 4-day record streak), Malawi (314, 2-day record streak), Mozambique (521), Portugal (10176), Senegal (296), South Africa (21980), United Kingdom (68192), Zambia (1029).

2021-01-08

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (104HI→101HI), California (113HI→113HI), Israel (131HI→131HI), New York (144HI→144HI), Louisiana (171HI→149HI), Alabama (155HI→150HI), U.S. (176HI→173HI), Ontario (208HI→194HI), South Africa (206HI→199HI), Sweden (164HI→202HI), Toronto (236HI→210HI), Canada (250HI→233HI), Malta (247HI→235HI), Norway (0→314HI), Italy (320HI→335HI), Poland (361HI→376HI), France (322HI→400HI), Brazil (450HI→412HI), Turkey (484HI→490HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Mexico (536HI→536HI), Singapore (6990HI→7228HI), Malaysia (50→48), Japan (97→89), Thailand (89→94), Indonesia (122→117), South Korea (164→171), New Zealand (1811→1811), Australia (3089→2983)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Louisiana, Alabama, Ontario, South Africa, Toronto, Canada, Malta, Norway, Japan, Indonesia

Worse: U.K., U.S., Malaysia

Better: California, Israel, New York, Italy, Poland, Thailand, South Korea

Much better: Sweden, France

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (301→320, 63.5%), India (748→682, 22.2%), Germany (569→728, 86.8%), Iran (803→788, 62.4%), Romania (599→905, 42.4%), China (944→1689, 2.1%), Austria (21422→4211, 27.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Central African Republic (14, 1.1%); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Tajikistan (19, 3.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (24, 18.2%); Papua New Guinea (26, 15.0%); Benin (53, 9.1%); Timor-Leste (70, 40.9%); Mauritius (71, 5.9%); Djibouti (85, 1.3%); Liechtenstein (85, 44.7%); Azerbaijan (112, 26.5%); Luxembourg (113, 28.0%); Uzbekistan (144, 10.9%); Mauritania (150, 52.0%); Belize (161, 11.2%); Equatorial Guinea (177, 1.8%); Georgia (185, 29.3%); Croatia (189, 24.8%); Moldova (236, 45.4%); Burundi (237, 71.9%); Trinidad and Tobago (239, 14.6%); Iceland (251, 10.1%); Nepal (278, 10.8%); Armenia (282, 26.3%); Saudi Arabia (285, 3.4%); Jordan (298, 17.9%); Taiwan (305, 40.5%); Kyrgyzstan (309, 23.7%); Kosovo (317, 52.2%); Jamaica (339, 50.8%); Peru (385, 12.8%); Iraq (404, 58.2%); West Bank and Gaza (404, 64.2%); Guyana (413, 27.2%); Morocco (433, 41.1%); North Macedonia (491, 74.1%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); Sudan (517, 70.0%); Latvia (518, 84.9%); Yemen (556, 15.3%); Sri Lanka (562, 75.8%); Mali (630, 88.5%); Libya (631, 82.4%); Guatemala (806, 36.9%); Paraguay (888, 83.1%); Belarus (1043, 74.4%); Burma (1081, 70.1%); Uganda (1123, 85.4%); Finland (1173, 56.3%); Niger (1255, 90.8%); Philippines (1360, 28.5%); Ukraine (1587, 85.2%); Pakistan (1599, 31.7%); Serbia (1886, 83.4%); United Arab Emirates (2012, 90.5%); Lithuania (3061, 95.9%); Hungary (3269, 82.4%); Somalia (3401, 82.9%); Kenya (3533, 55.3%); Bulgaria (3849, 82.2%); Algeria (4153, 97.7%); Syria (4557, 97.5%); Netherlands (4798, 98.1%); Bangladesh (5143, 46.1%); Venezuela (7731, 40.1%); Ecuador (10609, 44.5%); Belgium (44743, 65.6%); Kazakhstan (156179, 58.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): GU (198, 6.1%); NC (486, 70.1%); PA (551, 80.7%); PR (629, 66.6%); SD (778, 27.1%); MT (1807, 24.4%); OH (3395, 77.4%); ID (21528, 97.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (4, 0.0%); YT (14, 45.0%); NL (44, 6.2%); BC (434, 69.1%); AB (790, 63.0%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Brazil (87843), Colombia (17576), Czechia (17773, 2-day record streak), Eritrea (193), Estonia (1084), Indonesia (9321, 2-day record streak), Japan (7563, 3-day record streak), Lebanon (4774, 3-day record streak), Malawi (274), Malaysia (3027, 2-day record streak), Monaco (40, 3-day record streak), Mongolia (87), United Arab Emirates (2988, 3-day record streak).

2021-01-07

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (102HI→104HI), California (116HI→113HI), Israel (142HI→131HI), New York (144HI→144HI), Alabama (155HI→155HI), Louisiana (174HI→171HI), U.S. (178HI→176HI), South Africa (210HI→206HI), Ontario (207HI→208HI), Toronto (234HI→236HI), Malta (260HI→247HI), Canada (250HI→250HI), Italy (304HI→320HI), France (399HI→322HI), Brazil (503HI→450HI), Turkey (471HI→484HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Mexico (545HI→536HI), Singapore (7086HI→6990HI), Norway (4→0), Malaysia (52→50), Thailand (91→89), Japan (105→97), Indonesia (124→122), South Korea (153→164), New Zealand (1342→1811), Australia (2769→3089)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, South Africa, Malta, France, Norway, Japan

Worse: California, Louisiana, U.S., Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia

Better: U.K., New York, Alabama, Ontario, Toronto, Canada, Italy, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (282→301, 66.3%), Germany (870→569, 80.6%), Romania (541→599, 42.3%), India (642→748, 22.4%), Iran (926→803, 63.8%), China (654→944, 2.1%), Sweden (new→4820, 97.2%), Austria (16014→21422, 26.8%), Poland (4069→38227, 51.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Niger (14, 91.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 54.5%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (24, 18.2%); Papua New Guinea (26, 15.0%); Tajikistan (27, 5.5%); Benin (53, 9.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (67, 6.5%); Mauritius (71, 5.9%); Azerbaijan (110, 28.5%); Belize (125, 11.1%); Georgia (138, 25.6%); Luxembourg (141, 31.1%); Uzbekistan (143, 11.4%); Mauritania (163, 55.9%); Equatorial Guinea (177, 1.8%); Iceland (265, 10.1%); Guyana (268, 25.6%); Moldova (279, 48.0%); Djibouti (284, 1.5%); Kyrgyzstan (288, 24.0%); Saudi Arabia (288, 3.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (300, 15.3%); Jordan (313, 18.3%); Armenia (315, 27.8%); Nepal (316, 11.0%); Jamaica (349, 51.8%); Kosovo (361, 55.5%); West Bank and Gaza (371, 65.8%); Taiwan (372, 42.4%); Croatia (387, 27.6%); Burundi (392, 71.2%); Morocco (421, 41.6%); Iraq (432, 59.8%); Sudan (445, 70.0%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); North Macedonia (506, 75.3%); Yemen (556, 15.3%); Sri Lanka (569, 77.0%); Mali (576, 89.4%); Libya (582, 83.1%); Belarus (672, 77.0%); Paraguay (816, 82.4%); Liechtenstein (827, 61.1%); Burma (1077, 70.5%); Guatemala (1132, 35.5%); Finland (1226, 54.3%); Uganda (1248, 85.5%); Philippines (1581, 27.3%); Ukraine (1595, 85.9%); Serbia (2042, 84.4%); Eritrea (2167, 97.7%); Bulgaria (2405, 81.8%); Kenya (3112, 55.4%); Syria (3151, 97.6%); Bangladesh (3331, 46.1%); Somalia (3401, 82.9%); Hungary (3419, 82.0%); Netherlands (4153, 97.7%); Lithuania (4392, 96.7%); Algeria (4699, 97.9%); Pakistan (5474, 32.6%); Central African Republic (7648, 63.7%); Ecuador (9103, 41.3%); Belgium (11206, 65.2%); Estonia (20765, 95.1%); Peru (20919, 12.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): GU (162, 5.5%); NC (313, 63.7%); MT (492, 22.2%); PR (760, 68.3%); PA (902, 82.7%); MS (1272, 82.4%); MP (1477, 98.0%); OH (2261, 76.4%); ID (23159, 96.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (5, 0.0%); YT (14, 30.0%); NL (40, 6.2%); BC (471, 68.1%); AB (904, 63.7%); SK (2610, 60.6%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Czechia (17332), Dominica (17), Indonesia (8854), Ireland (7832), Japan (5950, 2-day record streak), Lebanon (4166, 2-day record streak), Lesotho (931), Malaysia (2593), Malta (224), Monaco (31, 2-day record streak), Nigeria (1664, 3-day record streak), Panama (5186), Portugal (10027), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (16, 2-day record streak), Slovenia (3354), South Africa (21832), United Arab Emirates (2067, 2-day record streak), United Kingdom (62556, 3-day record streak), Uruguay (944).

2021-01-06

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (104HI→102HI), California (116HI→116HI), Israel (146HI→142HI), New York (144HI→144HI), Alabama (151HI→155HI), Sweden (164HI→164HI), Louisiana (173HI→174HI), U.S. (178HI→178HI), Ontario (207HI→207HI), South Africa (215HI→210HI), Toronto (222HI→234HI), Canada (250HI→250HI), Malta (288HI→260HI), Italy (313HI→304HI), France (399HI→399HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Brazil (517HI→503HI), Mexico (85HI→545HI), Singapore (7221HI→7086HI), Norway (4→4), Malaysia (54→52), Thailand (92→91), Japan (108→105), Indonesia (126→124), South Korea (149→153), New Zealand (1342→1342), Australia (2538→2769)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, South Africa, Malta, Italy

Worse: U.K., Malaysia, Japan, Indonesia

The same: Thailand

Better: California, New York, Alabama, Sweden, Louisiana, U.S., Ontario, Toronto, Canada, Norway, South Korea

Much better: Mexico

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (287→282, 67.7%), Romania (468→541, 41.8%), India (606→642, 22.4%), China (631→654, 2.1%), Germany (980→870, 80.2%), Iran (918→926, 65.9%), Turkey (458→1190, 7.1%), Poland (4846→4069, 50.5%), Austria (309428→16014, 26.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (14, 18.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 54.5%); Mauritius (20, 3.2%); Papua New Guinea (26, 15.0%); Tajikistan (41, 8.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (49, 6.2%); Georgia (102, 21.4%); Belize (108, 11.0%); Azerbaijan (111, 31.1%); Benin (122, 9.1%); Equatorial Guinea (123, 2.0%); Liechtenstein (135, 49.5%); Luxembourg (135, 30.8%); Uzbekistan (141, 11.9%); Finland (144, 51.3%); Iceland (158, 8.9%); Mauritania (162, 57.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (199, 15.3%); Guyana (217, 25.6%); Croatia (251, 23.4%); Saudi Arabia (276, 3.6%); Jamaica (284, 51.6%); Kyrgyzstan (284, 24.6%); Jordan (292, 18.5%); Moldova (303, 49.2%); Nepal (320, 11.2%); Taiwan (325, 42.8%); Morocco (334, 42.5%); Armenia (351, 29.1%); West Bank and Gaza (358, 67.9%); Kosovo (361, 55.5%); Yemen (381, 15.5%); Sudan (383, 70.0%); Iraq (468, 61.5%); Belarus (500, 76.9%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); Libya (700, 85.8%); Sri Lanka (738, 79.6%); Paraguay (798, 82.7%); Pakistan (825, 32.3%); Burma (856, 70.6%); North Macedonia (905, 80.1%); Philippines (1256, 26.5%); Uganda (1334, 86.0%); Peru (1523, 12.5%); Ukraine (1560, 88.0%); Kenya (1625, 56.6%); Serbia (1924, 84.7%); Mali (2493, 89.1%); Hungary (2627, 81.4%); Syria (2709, 97.5%); Bangladesh (2784, 46.1%); Guatemala (2957, 34.7%); Bulgaria (3114, 82.1%); Ecuador (4389, 37.3%); Netherlands (5503, 97.9%); Algeria (6048, 98.3%); Niger (7363, 90.5%); Belgium (8394, 65.0%); Namibia (9784, 88.3%); Bahamas (13966, 63.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): GU (88, 5.2%); NC (257, 57.1%); PR (339, 66.0%); VI (504, 35.3%); MT (739, 22.2%); PA (961, 84.8%); OH (1508, 75.1%); TN (1779, 80.8%); MP (4474, 99.3%); ID (32360, 96.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (6, 0.0%); YT (14, 25.0%); PE (36, 20.0%); NL (52, 7.3%); NS (56, 4.1%); BC (512, 69.2%); AB (732, 63.5%); SK (1433, 64.1%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Colombia (16835), Comoros (131), Japan (4946), Lebanon (3620), Monaco (30), Nigeria (1354, 2-day record streak), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (9), United Arab Emirates (1967), United Kingdom (61087, 2-day record streak), Zimbabwe (1365).

2021-01-05

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Mexico (540HI→85HI), U.K. (104HI→104HI), California (114HI→116HI), New York (145HI→144HI), Israel (150HI→146HI), Alabama (159HI→151HI), Sweden (157HI→164HI), Louisiana (176HI→173HI), U.S. (180HI→178HI), Ontario (211HI→207HI), South Africa (224HI→215HI), Toronto (215HI→222HI), Canada (290HI→250HI), Malta (302HI→288HI), France (435HI→399HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Brazil (510HI→517HI), Singapore (7783HI→7221HI), Norway (4→4), Malaysia (55→54), Thailand (105→92), Japan (113→108), Indonesia (125→126), South Korea (143→149), New Zealand (1266→1342), Australia (2568→2538)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Mexico, Israel, Alabama, Ontario, South Africa, Canada, Malta, Thailand, Japan

Worse: Louisiana, U.S.

The same: New York, Malaysia

Better: U.K., California, Sweden, Toronto, Norway, Indonesia, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (237→287, 70.2%), Turkey (387→458, 6.7%), Romania (283→468, 41.8%), India (959→606, 22.7%), China (599→631, 2.1%), Iran (912→918, 66.7%), Germany (526→980, 82.7%), Poland (10226→4846, 51.0%), Italy (new→11742, 80.2%), Austria (5863→309428, 26.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (14, 18.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 54.5%); Mauritius (20, 3.2%); Papua New Guinea (26, 15.0%); Grenada (31, 35.7%); Gambia (52, 0.4%); Tajikistan (53, 10.1%); Georgia (61, 15.2%); Guinea-Bissau (77, 1.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (78, 7.4%); Iceland (107, 8.1%); Belize (108, 12.1%); Azerbaijan (113, 33.8%); Guyana (119, 24.2%); Equatorial Guinea (123, 2.0%); Luxembourg (135, 30.3%); Uzbekistan (140, 12.6%); Liechtenstein (152, 51.5%); Mauritania (196, 61.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (196, 15.7%); Croatia (212, 23.3%); Taiwan (231, 42.4%); Yemen (236, 15.5%); Kyrgyzstan (275, 25.4%); Jordan (287, 19.2%); Saudi Arabia (299, 3.6%); Armenia (333, 30.6%); Nepal (333, 11.3%); West Bank and Gaza (339, 70.3%); Jamaica (349, 54.1%); Moldova (356, 50.0%); Morocco (361, 42.8%); Kosovo (387, 58.3%); Togo (395, 23.5%); Djibouti (399, 1.6%); Sudan (422, 73.2%); Finland (432, 66.9%); Belarus (439, 75.4%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); Sri Lanka (527, 79.2%); Iraq (530, 63.3%); Burma (672, 70.5%); Paraguay (753, 82.9%); Pakistan (756, 34.2%); Libya (785, 87.5%); North Macedonia (839, 80.1%); Philippines (1073, 25.5%); Ecuador (1283, 34.2%); Kenya (1413, 56.2%); Uganda (1429, 86.2%); Ukraine (1553, 90.4%); Serbia (1671, 85.0%); Oman (2154, 24.5%); Bulgaria (2294, 82.1%); Hungary (2313, 81.5%); Bangladesh (2564, 46.1%); Syria (2565, 97.6%); Mongolia (2875, 93.2%); Colombia (2936, 53.0%); Belgium (7673, 65.0%); Algeria (7890, 98.6%); Guatemala (9939, 33.7%); Albania (11663, 92.9%); Mali (14438, 88.8%); Netherlands (16409, 98.2%); Ethiopia (28520, 34.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): GU (49, 4.8%); VI (104, 31.5%); PR (213, 63.6%); NC (247, 52.6%); MP (477, 94.0%); MT (710, 22.2%); PA (1034, 86.8%); OH (1324, 76.0%); TN (6193, 83.3%); ID (18071, 95.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (7, 0.0%); YT (14, 25.0%); NL (43, 6.8%); NS (139, 5.8%); BC (306, 72.3%); SK (526, 63.5%); AB (636, 65.5%); MB (14840, 51.1%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Afghanistan (1485), Costa Rica (3115), Cuba (316), Ireland (6110, 4-day record streak), Nigeria (1271), United Kingdom (58923).

2021-01-04

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (108HI→104HI), California (112HI→114HI), New York (145HI→145HI), Israel (169HI→150HI), Alabama (159HI→159HI), Louisiana (179HI→176HI), U.S. (180HI→180HI), Ontario (223HI→211HI), Toronto (243HI→215HI), South Africa (234HI→224HI), Canada (290HI→290HI), Malta (319HI→302HI), Italy (330HI→324HI), France (456HI→435HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Brazil (505HI→510HI), Mexico (542HI→540HI), Singapore (8637HI→7783HI), Norway (5→4), Thailand (140→105), Japan (113→113), Indonesia (127→125), South Korea (135→143), New Zealand (1266→1266), Australia (2506→2568)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Israel, Ontario, Toronto, South Africa, Malta, Italy, Thailand

Worse: Louisiana, Indonesia

The same: Norway

Better: California, New York, Alabama, U.S., Canada, Japan, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (253→237, 71.0%), Romania (304→283, 41.2%), Turkey (286→387, 6.4%), Germany (9925→526, 85.8%), China (328→599, 2.1%), Sweden (792→617, 92.1%), Malaysia (new→782, 90.5%), Iran (897→912, 67.4%), India (887→959, 24.0%), Austria (new→5863, 26.7%), Poland (new→10226, 51.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Benin (14, 17.7%); Central African Republic (14, 64.2%); Djibouti (14, 1.7%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 2.2%); Eritrea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Gabon (14, 4.6%); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Iceland (14, 11.7%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Luxembourg (14, 48.1%); Mauritius (14, 8.3%); Nicaragua (14, 97.7%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 84.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Papua New Guinea (15, 15.0%); Gambia (42, 0.4%); Tajikistan (43, 12.1%); Georgia (50, 19.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (90, 8.0%); Azerbaijan (101, 36.3%); Uzbekistan (115, 12.6%); Croatia (149, 25.5%); Belize (153, 13.6%); Guyana (160, 25.7%); Ecuador (165, 32.7%); Mauritania (186, 66.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (193, 92.3%); Kyrgyzstan (223, 25.4%); Belarus (228, 71.6%); Moldova (235, 51.9%); Saudi Arabia (258, 3.8%); Jamaica (259, 53.7%); Philippines (267, 24.4%); Nepal (269, 11.8%); Kosovo (282, 58.3%); Madagascar (289, 5.7%); Jordan (309, 20.2%); Taiwan (327, 43.9%); Trinidad and Tobago (354, 16.5%); West Bank and Gaza (393, 72.0%); Morocco (409, 44.7%); Sudan (439, 74.5%); Guatemala (450, 34.6%); Mali (474, 92.1%); Iraq (481, 65.3%); Armenia (487, 31.9%); Sri Lanka (512, 80.3%); Paraguay (561, 83.7%); Yemen (650, 15.9%); Burma (671, 70.8%); Libya (680, 88.7%); North Macedonia (776, 82.4%); Uganda (873, 86.4%); Serbia (1420, 85.0%); Bulgaria (1506, 82.0%); Lesotho (1732, 98.2%); Syria (1894, 97.7%); Bangladesh (2016, 46.1%); Hungary (2106, 82.1%); Lithuania (3106, 97.1%); Botswana (3351, 74.9%); Belgium (3901, 64.9%); Netherlands (4609, 98.8%); Slovenia (6108, 81.8%); Algeria (7294, 98.9%); Ukraine (9000, 90.5%); Kenya (10265, 56.5%); Albania (13142, 93.5%); Afghanistan (73285, 54.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): NC (90, 49.2%); VI (94, 33.6%); GU (195, 6.2%); MS (254, 73.5%); MP (273, 94.0%); PR (277, 65.0%); MT (359, 22.8%); PA (797, 85.7%); WI (1944, 67.2%); MN (2471, 24.8%); UT (2659, 80.0%); ID (2808, 95.5%); OH (3160, 78.1%); WY (3687, 11.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (7, 0.0%); PE (14, 30.0%); YT (14, 25.0%); NL (30, 6.8%); BC (352, 72.3%); AB (811, 65.5%); MB (2003, 51.1%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Barbados (161), Canada (16141), Ireland (4961, 3-day record streak), Mozambique (341), Zimbabwe (774).

2021-01-03

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (114HI→108HI), California (118HI→112HI), New York (150HI→145HI), Alabama (160HI→159HI), Israel (168HI→169HI), Louisiana (202HI→179HI), U.S. (199HI→180HI), Ontario (233HI→223HI), South Africa (239HI→234HI), Toronto (243HI→243HI), Canada (290HI→290HI), Malta (318HI→319HI), Italy (346HI→330HI), Poland (373HI→362HI), Austria (415HI→414HI), France (456HI→456HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Brazil (505HI→505HI), Mexico (532HI→542HI), Singapore (10447HI→8637HI), Norway (6→5), Malaysia (58→55), Japan (108→113), Indonesia (127→127), South Korea (138→135), Thailand (156→140), New Zealand (1371→1266), Australia (2581→2506)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., California, New York, Louisiana, U.S., Ontario, South Africa, Italy, Poland, Thailand

Worse: Malaysia, South Korea

The same: Alabama, Norway

Better: Israel, Toronto, Canada, Malta, Japan, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (274→253, 74.6%), Turkey (226→286, 6.5%), Romania (457→304, 41.7%), China (268→328, 2.1%), Sweden (new→792, 92.1%), India (959→887, 24.3%), Iran (924→897, 68.5%), Germany (2704→9925, 88.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (74): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 13.6%); Brunei (14, 4.7%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 1.3%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Mauritius (14, 8.3%); Papua New Guinea (14, 47.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 92.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 54.5%); Gambia (42, 0.4%); Tajikistan (60, 14.3%); Georgia (88, 26.5%); Belize (90, 12.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (102, 8.9%); Azerbaijan (103, 39.8%); Equatorial Guinea (113, 2.2%); Guyana (124, 25.6%); Uzbekistan (136, 13.9%); Finland (166, 64.1%); Belarus (174, 70.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (192, 16.7%); Mauritania (214, 69.7%); Taiwan (219, 43.5%); Jamaica (232, 54.8%); Morocco (267, 45.2%); Kyrgyzstan (286, 27.0%); Madagascar (289, 5.7%); Saudi Arabia (302, 3.9%); Togo (315, 21.3%); West Bank and Gaza (320, 73.0%); Namibia (326, 79.7%); Nepal (330, 12.2%); Croatia (383, 27.5%); Jordan (387, 21.3%); Moldova (398, 55.9%); Kosovo (400, 60.7%); Sudan (441, 76.3%); Armenia (460, 32.5%); Yemen (509, 16.4%); Iraq (576, 67.2%); Sri Lanka (599, 81.8%); Burma (609, 71.7%); Oman (693, 23.5%); Libya (780, 90.4%); Paraguay (789, 86.0%); Kenya (816, 56.2%); Burkina Faso (1030, 92.3%); North Macedonia (1044, 83.4%); Uganda (1116, 87.4%); Pakistan (1147, 34.1%); Nicaragua (1359, 97.7%); Serbia (1398, 85.5%); Bulgaria (1695, 82.0%); Bangladesh (1821, 46.3%); Syria (1964, 98.0%); Ukraine (2002, 91.0%); Bahamas (2162, 63.0%); Hungary (3176, 82.9%); Luxembourg (3729, 48.1%); Belgium (6235, 65.2%); Algeria (11020, 99.2%); Albania (13492, 93.0%); Afghanistan (14672, 54.4%); Netherlands (112651, 99.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (15): VI (158, 33.2%); PR (240, 68.6%); WY (283, 11.5%); GU (312, 7.4%); MT (400, 22.1%); MP (416, 96.0%); RI (476, 87.9%); MA (479, 90.2%); MN (1019, 22.9%); PA (1449, 89.8%); MI (1567, 84.7%); OH (2424, 77.9%); WA (9805, 95.2%); WI (10744, 67.3%); ID (18450, 96.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): YT (1, 0.0%); NT (8, 0.0%); PE (14, 30.0%); NL (23, 6.2%); SK (850, 59.6%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Ireland (3394, 2-day record streak), US (297491), United Arab Emirates (1963, 4-day record streak), United Kingdom (57853).

2021-01-02

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (121HI→114HI), California (118HI→118HI), New York (172HI→150HI), Sweden (157HI→157HI), Alabama (179HI→160HI), Israel (177HI→168HI), U.S. (207HI→199HI), Ontario (249HI→233HI), South Africa (246HI→239HI), Toronto (243HI→243HI), Canada (276HI→290HI), Malta (300HI→318HI), Poland (386HI→373HI), Austria (413HI→415HI), France (451HI→456HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Brazil (502HI→505HI), Mexico (542HI→532HI), Singapore (12446HI→10447HI), Norway (7→6), Malaysia (57→58), Japan (108→108), Indonesia (128→127), South Korea (130→138), Thailand (166→156), New Zealand (1371→1371), Australia (2836→2581)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., New York, Alabama, Israel, U.S., Ontario, South Africa, Thailand

The same: Norway, Indonesia

Better: California, Sweden, Toronto, Canada, Malta, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Turkey (189→226, 6.5%), China (479→268, 2.1%), Denmark (304→274, 78.0%), Louisiana (1256→387, 86.3%), Romania (606→457, 44.9%), Iran (748→924, 69.6%), India (716→959, 25.0%), Germany (new→2704, 89.2%), Italy (2707→70696, 80.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 13.6%); Brunei (14, 4.7%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Madagascar (14, 6.2%); Mauritius (14, 8.3%); Papua New Guinea (14, 47.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 54.5%); Grenada (18, 35.7%); Guinea-Bissau (25, 1.3%); Gambia (30, 0.4%); Tajikistan (86, 16.5%); Togo (93, 20.4%); Guyana (107, 27.6%); Uzbekistan (107, 13.9%); Equatorial Guinea (113, 2.2%); Azerbaijan (116, 45.0%); Belize (125, 15.2%); Taiwan (140, 42.8%); Finland (167, 62.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (171, 17.0%); Georgia (192, 35.1%); Yemen (210, 16.4%); Belarus (246, 75.2%); Mongolia (246, 85.0%); West Bank and Gaza (271, 74.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (274, 9.9%); Kosovo (288, 60.7%); Kyrgyzstan (290, 28.1%); Armenia (305, 33.1%); Mauritania (311, 74.6%); Pakistan (373, 33.6%); Jamaica (376, 58.4%); Saudi Arabia (410, 4.1%); Sri Lanka (434, 82.3%); Ethiopia (471, 31.7%); Morocco (474, 48.0%); Jordan (486, 22.8%); Sudan (516, 79.5%); Oman (518, 23.5%); Nepal (619, 13.0%); Burma (621, 73.4%); Namibia (637, 82.0%); Guinea (647, 29.9%); Moldova (667, 57.1%); Libya (684, 90.4%); Estonia (698, 94.5%); Iraq (713, 69.0%); Ghana (791, 13.2%); Ukraine (865, 90.3%); Kenya (1012, 56.8%); Serbia (1329, 86.2%); Bulgaria (1521, 82.6%); Syria (1822, 98.0%); North Macedonia (2018, 85.6%); Bangladesh (2206, 46.6%); Albania (2252, 91.8%); Uganda (2782, 89.3%); Mozambique (2816, 56.7%); Colombia (2854, 53.6%); Bahamas (4737, 63.0%); Afghanistan (5161, 54.4%); Hungary (10755, 84.2%); Russia (11353, 99.2%); Algeria (19836, 99.3%); Belgium (29615, 65.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): GU (69, 7.3%); WY (129, 9.3%); VI (132, 38.0%); PR (171, 69.5%); MP (416, 96.0%); MT (488, 22.5%); MA (629, 87.5%); PA (669, 87.7%); RI (866, 90.3%); OH (1064, 77.4%); MI (2066, 84.7%); WI (2718, 67.1%); ID (4747, 95.2%); SD (42888, 29.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): YT (2, 0.0%); NT (9, 0.0%); NU (14, 1.3%); PE (14, 30.0%); NL (29, 7.3%); SK (211, 56.9%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Ireland (1753), Senegal (224), United Arab Emirates (1856, 3-day record streak).

2021-01-01

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (120HI→118HI), U.K. (129HI→121HI), Sweden (157HI→157HI), New York (172HI→172HI), Israel (196HI→177HI), Alabama (185HI→179HI), U.S. (209HI→207HI), Toronto (243HI→243HI), South Africa (249HI→246HI), Ontario (249HI→249HI), Germany (259HI→267HI), France (451HI→451HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Brazil (501HI→502HI), Mexico (551HI→542HI), Norway (7→7), Malaysia (61→57), Japan (108→108), Indonesia (130→128), South Korea (123→130), Thailand (194→166), New Zealand (1371→1371), Australia (2933→2836)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Israel, Alabama, Malaysia, Thailand

Worse: California, U.S., South Africa, Indonesia

Better: Sweden, New York, Toronto, Ontario, Germany, Norway, Japan, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Turkey (210→189, 6.7%), Denmark (408→304, 80.6%), China (625→479, 2.2%), Romania (698→606, 46.3%), Singapore (new→675, 0.8%), Austria (303→697, 28.1%), India (670→716, 25.3%), Iran (761→748, 69.8%), Louisiana (2371→1256, 86.3%), Canada (508→1277, 95.7%), Italy (1929→2707, 80.1%), Malta (491→3529, 66.0%), Poland (1717→13593, 52.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (14, 4.7%); Cameroon (14, 22.4%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Madagascar (14, 6.2%); Mauritius (14, 8.3%); Papua New Guinea (14, 47.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Grenada (15, 35.7%); Guinea-Bissau (25, 1.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (59, 8.0%); Liechtenstein (79, 72.5%); Belize (82, 15.2%); Togo (86, 23.2%); Luxembourg (99, 48.1%); Guyana (103, 30.4%); Gambia (110, 0.5%); Equatorial Guinea (113, 2.2%); Azerbaijan (142, 50.7%); Finland (148, 59.5%); Tajikistan (150, 18.7%); Uzbekistan (155, 15.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (170, 17.6%); Djibouti (195, 1.8%); Georgia (235, 42.5%); Mongolia (244, 84.1%); Mauritania (252, 76.2%); Yemen (260, 16.4%); Armenia (280, 33.6%); Jamaica (285, 60.2%); West Bank and Gaza (296, 76.9%); Ethiopia (307, 31.0%); Kyrgyzstan (320, 28.9%); Croatia (326, 35.2%); Pakistan (351, 33.3%); Jordan (353, 22.8%); Mozambique (362, 52.8%); Kosovo (393, 64.5%); Sudan (400, 79.5%); Oman (408, 23.5%); Suriname (421, 35.2%); Morocco (445, 48.8%); Belarus (481, 79.8%); Saudi Arabia (496, 4.2%); Guinea (525, 29.7%); Burma (539, 74.9%); Ghana (559, 13.3%); Taiwan (675, 45.8%); Sri Lanka (776, 85.3%); Ukraine (785, 90.4%); Kenya (863, 56.5%); Colombia (872, 53.8%); Iraq (879, 70.7%); Libya (942, 92.8%); North Macedonia (1251, 86.0%); Bulgaria (1399, 84.0%); Serbia (1499, 87.4%); Iceland (1682, 11.7%); Afghanistan (1694, 54.4%); Bangladesh (1815, 46.8%); Nepal (2116, 13.7%); Hungary (2690, 84.6%); Bahamas (2953, 62.8%); Syria (3410, 98.9%); Paraguay (3679, 90.3%); Namibia (3965, 83.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (4222, 88.4%); Montenegro (7061, 80.4%); Albania (7727, 93.8%); Kuwait (10974, 19.8%); Algeria (104510, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): GU (49, 7.4%); VI (132, 38.0%); SD (276, 29.4%); MA (382, 80.4%); MP (416, 96.0%); OK (516, 89.2%); TN (526, 83.1%); MN (651, 25.2%); OH (908, 79.4%); CT (1458, 95.0%); MI (1477, 83.9%); PR (1588, 74.1%); KY (1725, 93.5%); WY (2240, 11.8%); AK (2286, 84.2%); RI (2857, 92.6%); OR (2880, 97.3%); PA (3431, 94.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): YT (3, 0.0%); NT (10, 0.0%); NU (14, 1.3%); NS (37, 4.7%); NB (51, 20.8%); SK (151, 56.6%); NL (155, 10.4%); BC (351, 80.7%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Colombia (16314), Comoros (58), Czechia (17039, 2-day record streak), Japan (4540), Latvia (1861, 2-day record streak), Lebanon (3507, 2-day record streak), Malaysia (2525), Slovakia (6315), South Africa (18000, 2-day record streak), United Arab Emirates (1730, 2-day record streak), United Kingdom (56029).

2020-12-31

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (135HI→129HI), Sweden (157HI→157HI), New York (172HI→172HI), Alabama (185HI→185HI), Israel (189HI→196HI), U.S. (208HI→209HI), Toronto (254HI→243HI), Ontario (260HI→249HI), South Africa (257HI→249HI), France (500HI→451HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Singapore (17160HI→14358HI), Norway (8→7), Malaysia (66→61), Japan (110→108), South Korea (118→123), Indonesia (132→130), Thailand (217→194), New Zealand (1550→1371), Australia (2993→2933)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Toronto, Ontario, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand

Worse: Japan, Indonesia

The same: Norway

Better: Sweden, New York, Alabama, Israel, U.S., South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Turkey (195→210, 7.3%), Austria (200→303, 26.9%), Denmark (430→408, 85.5%), Malta (new→491, 64.1%), Canada (512→508, 91.1%), China (1143→625, 2.2%), India (738→670, 25.3%), Romania (335→698, 48.5%), Iran (774→761, 71.3%), Poland (1183→1717, 51.7%), Italy (2871→1929, 79.3%), Louisiana (1115→2371, 86.3%), Brazil (296→3602, 82.0%), California (new→9029, 97.8%), Mexico (1601→10934, 98.1%), Germany (701→18847, 95.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (92): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (14, 4.7%); Cameroon (14, 22.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 55.7%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Gambia (14, 0.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Mauritius (14, 8.3%); Papua New Guinea (14, 47.0%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Grenada (15, 35.7%); Cambodia (20, 5.7%); Guinea-Bissau (25, 1.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (25, 27.3%); Comoros (49, 53.8%); Liechtenstein (63, 64.4%); Equatorial Guinea (66, 2.2%); Togo (66, 21.4%); Belize (74, 16.4%); Guyana (83, 30.2%); Luxembourg (99, 48.1%); Croatia (115, 32.8%); Georgia (128, 41.8%); Finland (137, 57.3%); Djibouti (149, 1.7%); Azerbaijan (156, 55.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (179, 9.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (192, 17.8%); Ethiopia (203, 30.5%); Peru (209, 12.9%); Philippines (222, 28.6%); Jamaica (232, 61.0%); Jordan (264, 23.1%); Mauritania (272, 79.7%); Yemen (295, 16.4%); Kyrgyzstan (297, 29.7%); Oman (297, 24.1%); Uzbekistan (298, 16.6%); Pakistan (343, 33.1%); San Marino (348, 88.1%); Colombia (356, 51.0%); Mozambique (362, 50.4%); Armenia (363, 34.7%); Sudan (385, 81.1%); Cabo Verde (395, 13.2%); West Bank and Gaza (400, 80.1%); Mongolia (406, 84.6%); Burma (410, 75.3%); Morocco (443, 49.7%); Kosovo (467, 66.9%); Vietnam (528, 20.0%); Saudi Arabia (531, 4.3%); Nepal (549, 13.5%); Taiwan (558, 46.9%); Tajikistan (619, 21.5%); Montenegro (627, 78.1%); Kenya (639, 56.7%); Ecuador (792, 41.6%); Iraq (862, 71.7%); Ukraine (862, 91.1%); Ghana (878, 13.3%); Afghanistan (879, 54.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (981, 64.4%); Hungary (1022, 84.0%); Paraguay (1098, 90.3%); Sri Lanka (1182, 86.6%); North Macedonia (1244, 87.0%); Serbia (1463, 88.0%); Libya (1612, 94.6%); Iceland (1682, 11.7%); Slovakia (1758, 96.9%); Bangladesh (1768, 47.2%); Bulgaria (1788, 84.6%); Kazakhstan (1794, 56.9%); Kuwait (1840, 19.5%); Guinea (2033, 30.2%); Portugal (2086, 76.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2302, 88.4%); United Arab Emirates (2364, 92.7%); Burkina Faso (2422, 90.4%); Belgium (3482, 65.8%); Moldova (3812, 61.4%); Uganda (4053, 90.5%); Albania (4217, 93.8%); Madagascar (5511, 6.2%); Syria (15751, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (20): MP (14, 100.0%); GU (23, 7.0%); NH (225, 84.6%); SD (231, 29.4%); MN (270, 25.2%); VI (353, 42.0%); MT (417, 25.3%); ND (511, 15.3%); MA (537, 80.4%); TN (553, 83.1%); PA (571, 91.4%); WY (572, 11.8%); MS (617, 92.9%); OH (727, 79.4%); OK (1282, 89.2%); MI (1928, 85.7%); AK (7506, 86.4%); DE (10858, 99.6%); IN (11342, 94.7%); CO (61674, 93.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (10): YT (4, 0.0%); NT (11, 0.0%); NU (14, 1.3%); NS (19, 4.7%); NL (81, 10.4%); NB (86, 24.2%); SK (151, 56.6%); QC (256, 84.6%); AB (336, 74.6%); BC (351, 80.7%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Czechia (16420), Estonia (973), Germany (49044), Ireland (1718, 2-day record streak), Latvia (1367), Lebanon (2878), Mali (233), South Africa (17710), United Arab Emirates (1723).

2020-12-30

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (109HI→114HI), U.K. (139HI→135HI), Sweden (165HI→157HI), New York (172HI→172HI), Alabama (177HI→185HI), Israel (198HI→189HI), U.S. (207HI→208HI), Toronto (289HI→254HI), South Africa (265HI→257HI), Ontario (265HI→260HI), Malta (374HI→352HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Norway (12→8), Malaysia (69→66), Japan (115→110), South Korea (117→118), Thailand (274→217), Australia (3266→2993)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Sweden, Israel, Toronto, South Africa, Ontario, Malta, Norway, Japan, Thailand

Worse: Malaysia

Better: California, New York, Alabama, U.S., South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14, no new data, 5.3%), Singapore (134→174, 0.8%), Turkey (149→195, 7.6%), Austria (208→200, 26.3%), Brazil (306→296, 82.7%), Romania (300→335, 48.5%), Denmark (576→430, 88.9%), Canada (872→512, 89.7%), Germany (568→701, 89.3%), India (1089→738, 25.8%), Iran (758→774, 72.5%), Louisiana (new→1115, 78.4%), China (875→1143, 2.3%), Poland (1367→1183, 51.6%), Mexico (1424→1601, 96.8%), Italy (1772→2871, 79.9%), France (new→12211, 80.9%), Indonesia (11056→17251, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (101): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (3, 0.0%); Benin (14, 12.1%); Botswana (14, 67.2%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Cameroon (14, 22.4%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Gambia (14, 0.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Mauritius (14, 8.3%); Papua New Guinea (14, 47.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 10.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 83.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Grenada (15, 35.7%); Seychelles (16, 11.2%); Guinea-Bissau (25, 1.3%); Comoros (49, 53.8%); Cabo Verde (56, 11.9%); Guyana (57, 31.4%); Djibouti (59, 1.5%); Togo (59, 22.9%); Croatia (65, 30.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (71, 55.7%); Belize (85, 17.3%); Liechtenstein (85, 67.4%); Georgia (88, 41.1%); Luxembourg (101, 48.5%); San Marino (150, 80.2%); Uzbekistan (159, 17.5%); Gabon (166, 3.4%); Equatorial Guinea (168, 2.6%); Azerbaijan (171, 60.5%); Peru (224, 13.1%); Jordan (228, 23.8%); Philippines (249, 28.1%); Jamaica (253, 63.1%); Ethiopia (279, 32.5%); Kyrgyzstan (281, 30.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (300, 19.2%); Mauritania (306, 81.6%); Colombia (352, 52.7%); Ecuador (358, 37.9%); Sudan (364, 83.1%); Mozambique (365, 51.6%); Nepal (366, 13.7%); Burma (367, 76.7%); Kosovo (372, 66.9%); Zimbabwe (380, 66.5%); Armenia (381, 35.5%); Oman (393, 24.8%); Guatemala (397, 35.5%); Mali (404, 91.2%); Iceland (409, 11.3%); Paraguay (448, 90.8%); Morocco (454, 53.1%); Taiwan (480, 48.1%); Afghanistan (510, 54.5%); Ghana (554, 14.0%); West Bank and Gaza (583, 83.3%); Tajikistan (596, 21.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (608, 3.9%); Moldova (630, 61.8%); Saudi Arabia (663, 4.4%); Portugal (677, 73.7%); Hungary (697, 84.1%); Yemen (709, 17.1%); Burkina Faso (721, 95.2%); Argentina (747, 79.3%); Pakistan (815, 35.5%); Chile (885, 16.7%); Iraq (907, 72.7%); Kuwait (952, 19.6%); Sri Lanka (976, 87.2%); Montenegro (1017, 79.0%); Kazakhstan (1033, 56.7%); North Macedonia (1138, 86.8%); United Arab Emirates (1158, 92.3%); Slovakia (1224, 96.3%); Bulgaria (1225, 84.3%); Bangladesh (1229, 47.5%); Uganda (1271, 90.7%); Serbia (1383, 88.6%); Albania (1438, 93.3%); Kenya (1636, 59.2%); Ukraine (1788, 93.5%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1896, 88.2%); Haiti (1974, 38.6%); Vietnam (2130, 20.4%); Slovenia (2185, 81.0%); Belgium (2308, 65.7%); Libya (2660, 95.6%); Madagascar (5511, 6.2%); Mongolia (9791, 81.5%); Belarus (13081, 89.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (31): MP (14, 100.0%); GU (27, 7.9%); WY (75, 12.9%); MN (94, 23.8%); VI (132, 38.0%); ND (133, 14.7%); SD (176, 29.6%); MT (253, 24.3%); OK (411, 88.6%); MS (414, 87.1%); NH (622, 82.4%); TN (655, 84.7%); OH (685, 79.5%); PA (1048, 93.1%); AK (1235, 85.1%); UT (1318, 79.4%); AR (2166, 93.5%); IN (2166, 92.9%); WI (2742, 67.6%); NM (4100, 97.4%); CO (4993, 92.8%); DE (5286, 98.5%); WV (5405, 99.2%); NV (5523, 98.3%); NE (6349, 93.2%); MI (8969, 87.5%); NJ (14319, 99.2%); AZ (18703, 99.7%); HI (24188, 99.4%); IL (36136, 97.1%); ID (132002, 96.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (10): YT (5, 0.0%); NT (12, 0.0%); NU (14, 1.3%); NS (27, 5.4%); NB (49, 23.3%); NL (112, 10.9%); AB (203, 68.9%); SK (276, 61.8%); BC (283, 78.6%); MB (3866, 51.4%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Comoros (50), Cyprus (907), Eritrea (181), Eswatini (247, 2-day record streak), Ireland (1545), Panama (4574), Sweden (32485), United Kingdom (53275, 2-day record streak).

There were eight new cases reported in our neighbourhood this week: a man and a woman in their 20s via close contact; two men in their 30s and four in their 40s via an unknown route; one man in his 60s through community transmission. One of our regular grocery stores (PAT Central at Bloor and Christie) is closed indefinitely due to a staff case of COVID-19; we had not been there in a few weeks.

2020-12-29

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (107HI→109HI), U.K. (146HI→139HI), New York (172HI→172HI), Israel (218HI→198HI), U.S. (204HI→207HI), South Africa (264HI→265HI), Louisiana (276HI→276HI), Toronto (289HI→289HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), France (479HI→496HI), Norway (12→12), Malaysia (68→69), Japan (118→115), South Korea (115→117), Thailand (191→274), Australia (3077→3266)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Israel

Worse: Japan

Better: California, New York, U.S., South Africa, Louisiana, Toronto, Norway, Malaysia, South Korea

Much better: Thailand

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (new→14, 5.3%), Singapore (471→134, 0.8%), Turkey (134→149, 8.1%), Austria (377→208, 26.9%), Romania (240→300, 49.7%), Brazil (752→306, 80.6%), Germany (923→568, 91.0%), Denmark (659→576, 91.8%), Iran (702→758, 73.5%), Canada (new→872, 92.0%), China (521→875, 2.3%), India (2267→1089, 26.4%), Poland (2779→1367, 51.9%), Mexico (5101→1424, 96.3%), Sweden (713→1453, 93.1%), Italy (1933→1772, 80.8%), Malta (920→2839, 65.4%), Ontario (new→8201, 99.5%), Indonesia (new→11056, 98.8%), Alabama (9786→32832, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (102): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (4, 0.0%); Fiji (7, 0.0%); Benin (14, 12.1%); Botswana (14, 67.2%); Cambodia (14, 4.5%); Cameroon (14, 22.4%); Comoros (14, 78.8%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 2.0%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Mauritius (14, 8.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 47.0%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 83.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Seychelles (16, 11.2%); Cabo Verde (34, 9.8%); Croatia (60, 31.8%); Guyana (60, 35.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (71, 55.7%); Togo (74, 26.0%); Grenada (92, 82.1%); Luxembourg (97, 47.7%); Djibouti (99, 1.7%); Georgia (104, 43.2%); Belize (124, 19.2%); San Marino (147, 79.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (155, 4.3%); Equatorial Guinea (168, 2.6%); Azerbaijan (192, 65.6%); Uzbekistan (199, 18.6%); Burkina Faso (211, 85.9%); Jamaica (221, 63.9%); Guatemala (223, 33.9%); Liechtenstein (238, 67.9%); Mauritania (240, 83.2%); Nepal (273, 13.8%); Kosovo (276, 69.5%); Monaco (280, 74.7%); Jordan (281, 24.8%); Mali (289, 89.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (289, 19.8%); Philippines (305, 27.4%); Kyrgyzstan (312, 31.8%); Morocco (319, 52.6%); Moldova (327, 60.6%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (341, 95.7%); Sudan (342, 85.6%); Ethiopia (375, 34.5%); Gabon (384, 3.4%); Burma (385, 78.4%); Ecuador (409, 36.1%); Ghana (420, 13.7%); Oman (486, 25.3%); Colombia (545, 54.6%); Iceland (550, 11.4%); Peru (552, 13.5%); Armenia (571, 37.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (582, 10.5%); Hungary (587, 84.6%); Saudi Arabia (590, 4.4%); Afghanistan (604, 54.8%); Paraguay (643, 91.5%); Tajikistan (644, 22.2%); Bulgaria (780, 85.1%); Vietnam (827, 23.0%); Bangladesh (847, 47.6%); Kazakhstan (879, 57.5%); United Arab Emirates (946, 92.2%); North Macedonia (947, 87.4%); Iraq (948, 73.5%); Sri Lanka (1115, 90.0%); Uganda (1164, 90.6%); Chile (1204, 16.8%); Cyprus (1353, 96.6%); Albania (1403, 93.5%); Kuwait (1451, 19.7%); Serbia (1461, 89.5%); Taiwan (1483, 50.0%); Belarus (1557, 89.1%); Argentina (1567, 76.3%); Zimbabwe (1600, 73.1%); West Bank and Gaza (1727, 87.3%); Uruguay (1897, 98.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1964, 88.8%); Haiti (1974, 38.6%); Kenya (2801, 59.1%); Libya (2891, 96.3%); Latvia (3099, 85.0%); Ukraine (3421, 96.1%); Belgium (5287, 65.7%); Madagascar (5511, 6.2%); Central African Republic (5790, 63.4%); Portugal (8459, 76.9%); Lebanon (23519, 98.5%); Czechia (46871, 51.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (31): VI (14, 44.7%); GU (39, 10.2%); WY (84, 11.8%); MT (99, 24.3%); ND (104, 13.7%); MN (107, 24.3%); SD (176, 29.6%); MS (270, 80.8%); AR (432, 90.6%); OH (432, 81.2%); UT (481, 79.3%); OK (572, 89.3%); TN (678, 84.5%); PA (1287, 94.7%); AK (1354, 85.5%); ID (1540, 96.1%); WI (1740, 68.2%); NM (1796, 97.5%); NV (2098, 97.5%); CO (2103, 92.9%); IN (2173, 92.3%); OR (2580, 96.8%); RI (2659, 95.0%); IL (2813, 96.5%); MO (3822, 98.0%); HI (4048, 99.1%); AZ (4613, 98.9%); NJ (4965, 99.0%); NE (12663, 93.6%); MD (16627, 99.7%); NH (44132, 84.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (10): YT (6, 0.0%); NT (13, 0.0%); NU (20, 3.3%); NB (52, 26.7%); NS (90, 6.4%); NL (174, 11.5%); AB (220, 70.0%); BC (291, 78.9%); SK (739, 66.9%); MB (2612, 51.1%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Cuba (229), Eswatini (203), Lesotho (231), Saint Lucia (26), United Kingdom (41460).

2020-12-28

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (105HI→107HI), U.K. (149HI→146HI), New York (172HI→172HI), U.S. (197HI→204HI), Israel (234HI→218HI), Canada (257HI→257HI), Ontario (263HI→263HI), South Africa (258HI→264HI), Louisiana (215HI→276HI), Toronto (259HI→289HI), France (479HI→479HI), Norway (13→12), Malaysia (66→68), South Korea (117→115), Japan (119→118), Indonesia (134→137), Thailand (147→191), New Zealand (1657→1657), Australia (3031→3077)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel

Worse: U.K., South Korea

The same: Norway, Japan

Better: California, New York, U.S., Canada, Ontario, South Africa, Malaysia, Indonesia

Much better: Louisiana, Toronto, Thailand

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Turkey (126→134, 8.6%), Romania (250→240, 50.0%), Austria (343→377, 29.8%), Singapore (14→471, 0.9%), China (298→521, 2.3%), Denmark (1064→659, 93.3%), Iran (710→702, 74.7%), Sweden (801→713, 93.1%), Brazil (4177→752, 82.6%), Malta (714→920, 66.6%), Germany (2532→923, 93.5%), Italy (1325→1933, 81.8%), India (1424→2267, 27.2%), Poland (new→2779, 52.5%), Mexico (new→5101, 98.1%), Alabama (11773→9786, 98.9%), Spain (new→26021, 97.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (98): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (5, 0.0%); Fiji (8, 0.0%); Benin (14, 12.1%); Cambodia (14, 4.5%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 2.0%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Iceland (14, 11.9%); Laos (14, 25.0%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Luxembourg (14, 69.8%); Mauritius (14, 8.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 45.5%); Seychelles (14, 23.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 83.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Cabo Verde (50, 13.6%); Cameroon (60, 22.4%); Papua New Guinea (68, 47.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (71, 55.7%); Guyana (74, 39.2%); Croatia (85, 39.7%); Togo (92, 30.5%); Georgia (150, 50.5%); Equatorial Guinea (168, 2.6%); Saint Lucia (193, 24.4%); Azerbaijan (201, 69.3%); Belize (210, 21.7%); Uzbekistan (243, 19.3%); Nepal (259, 13.9%); Moldova (278, 59.8%); Jamaica (282, 67.7%); Mali (290, 87.4%); Kyrgyzstan (291, 32.3%); Jordan (299, 25.7%); Sudan (304, 87.4%); Ethiopia (307, 35.3%); Mauritania (308, 87.3%); Guatemala (313, 35.1%); Taiwan (318, 47.3%); Kosovo (333, 71.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (341, 95.7%); Philippines (349, 26.6%); Morocco (359, 53.8%); Afghanistan (376, 55.6%); Andorra (408, 34.4%); Oman (417, 25.8%); Peru (501, 14.6%); Lesotho (507, 94.1%); Tajikistan (509, 22.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (524, 4.3%); Cyprus (571, 91.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (582, 10.5%); Belarus (587, 87.1%); Armenia (592, 38.9%); Ghana (605, 14.0%); Paraguay (634, 91.4%); Kazakhstan (651, 57.9%); Hungary (688, 86.2%); Ecuador (689, 34.8%); Bangladesh (690, 48.0%); Burma (704, 80.9%); Bulgaria (740, 86.8%); Burkina Faso (773, 85.9%); Sri Lanka (790, 89.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (801, 20.6%); Djibouti (841, 1.9%); Saudi Arabia (884, 4.5%); United Arab Emirates (998, 93.1%); Kuwait (999, 19.9%); Botswana (1027, 67.2%); Iraq (1032, 74.4%); Grenada (1043, 98.2%); Vietnam (1108, 21.0%); West Bank and Gaza (1220, 88.7%); Uganda (1231, 90.7%); North Macedonia (1284, 88.9%); Serbia (1377, 90.3%); Argentina (1481, 76.1%); Albania (1498, 94.3%); Colombia (1521, 56.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2373, 89.3%); Ukraine (2543, 96.8%); Kenya (3586, 59.3%); Switzerland (3684, 74.7%); Haiti (3968, 38.9%); Libya (5073, 97.2%); Madagascar (5511, 6.2%); Central African Republic (5790, 63.4%); Belgium (7150, 65.7%); Latvia (11252, 82.7%); Portugal (12383, 76.8%); Honduras (12983, 98.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (33): IA (52, 3.9%); GU (53, 11.8%); WY (89, 12.0%); MT (110, 25.2%); MN (148, 26.9%); ND (157, 15.2%); MS (246, 76.8%); AR (369, 89.1%); PR (412, 75.9%); UT (440, 78.6%); SD (449, 33.7%); NH (558, 78.8%); OH (604, 83.9%); AK (693, 85.7%); WI (853, 67.9%); RI (1194, 94.0%); ID (1401, 96.1%); NM (1549, 96.9%); CO (1571, 92.9%); NE (1690, 92.6%); NV (1848, 97.4%); MO (2152, 97.7%); IL (2251, 96.4%); KS (2741, 98.3%); IN (3557, 93.1%); MI (3993, 86.8%); HI (6041, 98.6%); DE (9484, 98.5%); OR (11451, 98.8%); KY (12702, 96.2%); TX (15796, 89.2%); AZ (22363, 99.0%); NJ (953681, 98.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (10): YT (7, 0.0%); BC (14, 90.2%); NT (14, 11.1%); NU (14, 5.2%); PE (14, 25.0%); NB (60, 28.3%); NL (184, 12.0%); NS (193, 7.1%); AB (295, 73.3%); MB (3690, 51.4%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Canada (10141).

2020-12-27

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (105HI→105HI), U.K. (145HI→149HI), New York (172HI→172HI), U.S. (194HI→197HI), Louisiana (215HI→215HI), Israel (227HI→234HI), Canada (257HI→257HI), South Africa (256HI→258HI), Toronto (259HI→259HI), Poland (357HI→389HI), Spain (432HI→432HI), France (457HI→479HI), Mexico (480HI→545HI), Norway (13→13), Malaysia (65→66), South Korea (114→117), Japan (124→119), Indonesia (132→134), Thailand (101→147), New Zealand (1649→1657), Australia (2542→3031)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Japan

Better: California, U.K., New York, U.S., Louisiana, Israel, Canada, South Africa, Toronto, Poland, Norway, Malaysia, South Korea, Indonesia

Much better: Thailand

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (new→14, 0.9%), Turkey (125→126, 9.2%), Romania (329→250, 51.8%), China (278→298, 2.3%), Austria (282→343, 31.0%), Ontario (new→521, 89.5%), Iran (703→710, 76.3%), Malta (345→714, 68.4%), Sweden (4049→801, 93.1%), Denmark (3389→1064, 95.4%), Italy (989→1325, 81.6%), India (1401→1424, 27.4%), Germany (new→2532, 95.3%), Brazil (new→4177, 83.3%), Alabama (new→11773, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (80): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (6, 0.0%); Fiji (9, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 9.1%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Gambia (14, 0.5%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 2.0%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 25.0%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Madagascar (14, 6.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 95.7%); Seychelles (14, 23.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 83.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 40.9%); Cambodia (20, 9.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (37, 36.4%); Cabo Verde (52, 14.0%); Cameroon (60, 22.4%); Papua New Guinea (68, 47.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (71, 55.7%); Togo (77, 30.5%); Guyana (79, 41.4%); Finland (152, 75.5%); Croatia (154, 46.1%); Uzbekistan (183, 18.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (200, 10.5%); Georgia (202, 57.4%); Djibouti (211, 1.9%); Azerbaijan (231, 74.1%); Nepal (281, 14.5%); Saint Lucia (285, 24.4%); Cote d'Ivoire (296, 4.1%); Ethiopia (309, 37.1%); Jamaica (311, 70.5%); Sudan (349, 89.6%); Kosovo (357, 72.8%); Mauritania (359, 90.5%); Ghana (361, 13.8%); Jordan (362, 27.2%); Morocco (368, 54.7%); Kyrgyzstan (383, 33.5%); Moldova (384, 62.0%); Belarus (399, 85.6%); Uganda (452, 91.4%); Kazakhstan (459, 58.2%); Armenia (487, 38.9%); Tajikistan (491, 22.4%); Afghanistan (573, 56.8%); Guatemala (590, 36.4%); Bangladesh (592, 48.4%); Bulgaria (620, 86.9%); Burma (644, 83.3%); Oman (705, 27.3%); Sri Lanka (747, 89.5%); Belize (780, 24.4%); Venezuela (910, 39.5%); Hungary (923, 88.2%); Paraguay (948, 93.9%); Botswana (1027, 67.2%); United Arab Emirates (1047, 94.4%); Vietnam (1095, 20.8%); Mali (1178, 94.8%); Saudi Arabia (1193, 4.6%); Kuwait (1266, 19.8%); Serbia (1288, 91.1%); Iraq (1323, 75.6%); Taiwan (1444, 48.8%); Albania (1591, 94.8%); Ukraine (1729, 96.9%); North Macedonia (1841, 90.0%); Andorra (1857, 36.0%); West Bank and Gaza (2174, 89.1%); Libya (4150, 97.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (4270, 90.1%); Honduras (6163, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (30): IA (42, 4.3%); WY (101, 12.5%); MT (138, 27.6%); PR (173, 72.3%); ND (200, 16.3%); MN (223, 29.3%); RI (321, 84.3%); UT (407, 79.3%); SD (430, 34.6%); GU (486, 19.1%); OH (627, 85.0%); AK (698, 86.9%); KS (838, 94.5%); MA (858, 94.4%); AR (885, 91.8%); OK (895, 92.4%); WI (1006, 68.5%); ID (1140, 96.1%); CT (1146, 93.5%); KY (1200, 96.0%); CO (1614, 93.3%); MI (1847, 88.0%); TN (1936, 90.6%); IL (2160, 96.7%); MO (2897, 98.0%); NE (2934, 93.1%); OR (4251, 98.9%); TX (4452, 87.9%); NM (5390, 97.8%); NV (11327, 98.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): YT (8, 0.0%); NT (14, 11.1%); PE (27, 25.0%); NB (58, 29.2%); NL (203, 13.0%); SK (283, 71.3%); BC (1535, 90.2%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Eswatini (197), Japan (3892, 4-day record streak), Malaysia (2335).

2020-12-26

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (98HI→105HI), U.K. (149HI→145HI), Alabama (150HI→172HI), New York (172HI→172HI), U.S. (194HI→194HI), Germany (187HI→210HI), Israel (240HI→227HI), Ontario (244HI→255HI), South Africa (256HI→256HI), Toronto (259HI→259HI), Poland (321HI→357HI), Spain (432HI→432HI), France (409HI→457HI), Mexico (480HI→480HI), Brazil (393HI→491HI), Singapore (12124HI→12858HI), Norway (14→13), Malaysia (72→65), Thailand (105→101), South Korea (110→114), Japan (127→124), Indonesia (129→132), Australia (2245→2542)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Israel, Malaysia, Thailand

Worse: Japan

The same: Norway

Better: California, New York, U.S., Ontario, South Africa, Toronto, South Korea, Indonesia

Much better: Alabama, Germany, Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (99, no new data, 5.3%), Turkey (125, no new data, 9.8%), Louisiana (354→224, 81.7%), China (278, no new data, 2.3%), Austria (282, no new data, 32.6%), Romania (329, no new data, 55.7%), Malta (345, no new data, 62.7%), Iran (703, no new data, 77.5%), Italy (989, no new data, 81.5%), India (1401, no new data, 27.7%), Denmark (3389, no new data, 98.7%), Sweden (4049, no new data, 93.1%), Canada (8151, no new data, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (80): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (7, 0.0%); Fiji (10, 0.0%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 25.0%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Madagascar (14, 6.2%); Seychelles (14, 23.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 40.9%); Cambodia (16, 9.1%); Guinea-Bissau (31, 2.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (37, 9.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (37, 36.4%); Cameroon (60, 22.4%); Papua New Guinea (68, 47.0%); Mauritius (86, 8.3%); Togo (112, 34.1%); Belize (135, 24.4%); Djibouti (155, 2.0%); Finland (157, 73.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (200, 10.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (214, 4.1%); Ethiopia (227, 37.5%); Guyana (241, 49.9%); Vietnam (249, 20.6%); Azerbaijan (262, 78.7%); Croatia (273, 54.9%); Jamaica (287, 72.1%); Tunisia (310, 80.7%); Cabo Verde (317, 17.8%); Nepal (326, 15.2%); Armenia (354, 39.6%); Georgia (369, 65.1%); Kyrgyzstan (418, 34.7%); Kosovo (443, 74.4%); Kazakhstan (478, 59.1%); Jordan (479, 28.7%); Tajikistan (520, 22.7%); Moldova (537, 65.8%); Mauritania (547, 91.4%); Bulgaria (551, 87.6%); Andorra (573, 35.9%); Bangladesh (596, 49.3%); Belarus (644, 89.2%); Sri Lanka (647, 90.7%); Sudan (650, 92.3%); Oman (728, 27.3%); Morocco (745, 58.4%); Peru (797, 15.8%); Burma (936, 85.9%); Maldives (954, 18.4%); United Arab Emirates (991, 95.8%); Botswana (1027, 67.2%); Serbia (1138, 91.8%); Uzbekistan (1325, 21.4%); Iraq (1342, 76.5%); North Macedonia (1344, 90.1%); Uganda (1405, 93.6%); Slovenia (1426, 82.6%); Hungary (1477, 90.3%); Ukraine (1505, 96.3%); Qatar (1588, 6.3%); West Bank and Gaza (1614, 89.6%); Afghanistan (1649, 58.8%); Pakistan (1652, 37.5%); Albania (2018, 96.1%); Somalia (2084, 83.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2093, 90.2%); Ghana (2177, 14.7%); Bahamas (2223, 62.0%); Saudi Arabia (2683, 4.6%); Honduras (2745, 98.4%); Libya (3513, 97.2%); San Marino (8045, 94.8%); Portugal (13439, 79.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (28): IA (42, 5.2%); PR (143, 72.6%); MT (155, 28.1%); GU (260, 19.0%); RI (386, 86.3%); UT (449, 82.2%); OH (503, 85.6%); SD (523, 36.6%); NH (648, 88.3%); ND (723, 18.8%); MN (789, 36.6%); AK (806, 88.0%); WI (958, 68.8%); KS (1021, 94.5%); MA (1116, 91.8%); CT (1158, 93.5%); KY (1465, 96.4%); ID (1475, 96.5%); WA (1643, 93.7%); OR (1659, 97.3%); MI (1777, 88.0%); TN (1878, 91.0%); CO (2005, 93.8%); IL (3069, 97.3%); NE (9305, 93.9%); NM (10326, 98.5%); IN (12175, 95.1%); MO (15344, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): YT (9, 0.0%); NT (14, 11.1%); NU (14, 5.2%); PE (27, 25.0%); NL (56, 13.0%); NB (93, 32.5%); NS (162, 7.7%); SK (214, 70.2%); BC (658, 90.2%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Bhutan (57), Colombia (14941, 3-day record streak), Japan (3806, 3-day record streak), Namibia (683, 2-day record streak), Slovakia (4046), South Africa (14796, 3-day record streak).

2020-12-25

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (97HI→98HI), U.K. (150HI→149HI), Alabama (140HI→150HI), New York (176HI→172HI), Germany (176HI→187HI), U.S. (173HI→194HI), Israel (289HI→240HI), Ontario (244HI→244HI), South Africa (275HI→256HI), Toronto (259HI→259HI), Poland (310HI→321HI), Brazil (393HI→393HI), France (421HI→409HI), Spain (432HI→432HI), Mexico (462HI→480HI), Singapore (12637HI→12124HI), Norway (15→14), Malaysia (69→72), Thailand (108→105), South Korea (112→110), Japan (131→127), Indonesia (130→129), Australia (2245→2245)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: New York, Israel, South Africa, Japan

Worse: Thailand, South Korea

The same: U.K., Norway, Indonesia

Better: California, Alabama, Germany, Ontario, Toronto, Poland, Malaysia

Much better: U.S.

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (159→99, 5.3%), Turkey (208→125, 9.8%), China (484→278, 2.3%), Austria (221→282, 32.6%), Romania (506→329, 55.7%), Malta (888→345, 62.7%), Louisiana (429→354, 81.7%), Iran (796→703, 77.5%), Italy (1598→989, 81.5%), India (726→1401, 27.7%), Denmark (new→3389, 98.7%), Sweden (new→4049, 93.1%), Canada (3738→8151, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (80): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (7, 0.0%); Fiji (10, 0.0%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 25.0%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Madagascar (14, 6.2%); Seychelles (14, 23.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 40.9%); Cambodia (16, 9.1%); Guinea-Bissau (31, 2.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (37, 9.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (37, 36.4%); Cameroon (60, 22.4%); Papua New Guinea (68, 47.0%); Mauritius (86, 8.3%); Togo (112, 34.1%); Belize (135, 24.4%); Djibouti (155, 2.0%); Finland (157, 73.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (200, 10.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (214, 4.1%); Ethiopia (227, 37.5%); Guyana (241, 49.9%); Vietnam (249, 20.6%); Azerbaijan (262, 78.7%); Croatia (273, 54.9%); Jamaica (287, 72.1%); Tunisia (310, 80.7%); Cabo Verde (317, 17.8%); Nepal (326, 15.2%); Armenia (354, 39.6%); Georgia (369, 65.1%); Kyrgyzstan (418, 34.7%); Kosovo (443, 74.4%); Kazakhstan (478, 59.1%); Jordan (479, 28.7%); Tajikistan (520, 22.7%); Moldova (537, 65.8%); Mauritania (547, 91.4%); Bulgaria (551, 87.6%); Andorra (573, 35.9%); Bangladesh (596, 49.3%); Belarus (644, 89.2%); Sri Lanka (647, 90.7%); Sudan (650, 92.3%); Oman (728, 27.3%); Morocco (745, 58.4%); Peru (797, 15.8%); Burma (936, 85.9%); Maldives (954, 18.4%); United Arab Emirates (991, 95.8%); Botswana (1027, 67.2%); Serbia (1138, 91.8%); Uzbekistan (1325, 21.4%); Iraq (1342, 76.5%); North Macedonia (1344, 90.1%); Uganda (1405, 93.6%); Slovenia (1426, 82.6%); Hungary (1477, 90.3%); Ukraine (1505, 96.3%); Qatar (1588, 6.3%); West Bank and Gaza (1614, 89.6%); Afghanistan (1649, 58.8%); Pakistan (1652, 37.5%); Albania (2018, 96.1%); Somalia (2084, 83.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2093, 90.2%); Ghana (2177, 14.7%); Bahamas (2223, 62.0%); Saudi Arabia (2683, 4.6%); Honduras (2745, 98.4%); Libya (3513, 97.2%); San Marino (8045, 94.8%); Portugal (13439, 79.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (28): IA (50, 8.3%); VI (221, 44.7%); SD (231, 36.7%); ND (250, 18.7%); MN (269, 35.4%); NH (294, 85.0%); PR (387, 78.3%); GU (414, 19.0%); TN (484, 90.6%); MP (567, 93.7%); MA (584, 85.3%); RI (685, 90.6%); OH (709, 91.1%); MI (805, 85.7%); AK (854, 88.1%); KY (883, 93.6%); UT (994, 87.2%); KS (1021, 94.5%); CT (1066, 93.5%); OK (1246, 96.5%); WI (1560, 70.1%); IN (1699, 94.5%); MT (1843, 35.4%); CO (3359, 95.1%); NE (4927, 93.9%); ID (5874, 99.0%); OR (6784, 98.5%); IL (9430, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (11): YT (10, 0.0%); NT (14, 11.1%); PE (14, 25.0%); NU (15, 5.2%); NL (63, 13.0%); MB (148, 51.9%); NB (166, 36.7%); SK (200, 70.2%); NS (316, 7.7%); BC (498, 90.2%); AB (3291, 89.6%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Bhutan (57), Colombia (14941, 3-day record streak), Japan (3806, 3-day record streak), Namibia (683, 2-day record streak), Slovakia (4046), South Africa (14796, 3-day record streak).

2020-12-24

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (91HI→97HI), Denmark (103HI→103HI), Sweden (128HI→128HI), Alabama (137HI→140HI), U.K. (151HI→150HI), U.S. (173HI→173HI), Germany (179HI→176HI), New York (176HI→176HI), Ontario (242HI→244HI), Toronto (250HI→259HI), South Africa (292HI→275HI), Israel (289HI→289HI), Brazil (377HI→393HI), France (408HI→421HI), Spain (432HI→432HI), Singapore (11556HI→12637HI), Norway (15→15), Malaysia (71→69), Thailand (111→108), South Korea (112→112), Indonesia (129→130), Japan (130→131), Australia (2383→2245)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: South Africa

Worse: Germany, Malaysia, Thailand

The same: U.K.

Better: California, Denmark, Sweden, Alabama, U.S., New York, Ontario, Toronto, Israel, Norway, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (159, no new data, 5.3%), Turkey (208, no new data, 12.4%), Austria (221, no new data, 33.4%), Louisiana (526→429, 81.7%), China (484, no new data, 2.5%), Romania (506, no new data, 60.7%), India (726, no new data, 27.9%), Iran (796, no new data, 80.4%), Malta (888, no new data, 69.0%), Italy (1598, no new data, 84.2%), Poland (2191, no new data, 53.5%), Canada (3738, no new data, 97.5%), Mexico (71297, no new data, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (84): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Fiji (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 6.8%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 64.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Yemen (14, 16.7%); Belize (26, 25.1%); Guinea-Bissau (31, 2.0%); Laos (37, 25.0%); Djibouti (44, 2.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (51, 45.5%); Madagascar (62, 6.2%); Benin (69, 12.1%); Cambodia (69, 15.9%); Mauritius (86, 8.3%); Georgia (125, 66.6%); Togo (136, 39.8%); Finland (145, 68.8%); Croatia (179, 63.1%); Ecuador (203, 36.9%); Nepal (237, 16.1%); Liechtenstein (246, 76.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (263, 4.5%); Ethiopia (266, 40.2%); Moldova (270, 69.1%); Slovenia (282, 74.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (306, 10.8%); Jamaica (308, 76.3%); Jordan (309, 29.7%); Tunisia (318, 74.2%); Guinea (330, 29.8%); Luxembourg (331, 69.8%); Maldives (347, 18.2%); Azerbaijan (368, 86.8%); Philippines (374, 30.1%); Andorra (381, 36.7%); Qatar (436, 6.3%); Burma (463, 85.8%); Armenia (492, 41.8%); Kyrgyzstan (499, 36.6%); Ghana (500, 14.7%); Mozambique (504, 51.3%); Morocco (563, 60.7%); North Macedonia (568, 91.9%); San Marino (610, 92.1%); Bangladesh (716, 51.3%); Pakistan (776, 36.6%); Kazakhstan (813, 61.9%); Afghanistan (867, 61.6%); Tajikistan (879, 23.5%); Sri Lanka (921, 94.2%); Montenegro (1003, 80.0%); Iraq (1011, 77.8%); Bulgaria (1039, 92.5%); Vietnam (1134, 21.4%); Uganda (1238, 93.8%); Serbia (1265, 93.6%); Hungary (1513, 92.5%); Guatemala (1548, 39.6%); Mauritania (1568, 97.8%); Albania (1739, 97.0%); Kosovo (1911, 80.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1959, 91.0%); Somalia (2084, 83.0%); Portugal (2271, 77.1%); Paraguay (2331, 98.1%); West Bank and Gaza (2341, 91.9%); Saudi Arabia (2363, 4.7%); Libya (3619, 98.0%); Honduras (4976, 98.6%); Ukraine (5475, 98.8%); Belarus (6242, 93.6%); Bahamas (6637, 62.0%); United Arab Emirates (6946, 97.2%); Algeria (11006, 99.1%); Chile (18082, 15.5%); Botswana (20711, 69.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (28): IA (42, 7.5%); VI (159, 43.1%); GU (171, 18.9%); ND (181, 18.7%); MN (190, 35.4%); NC (200, 78.6%); PR (219, 83.5%); NH (235, 85.0%); SD (250, 36.7%); MP (256, 93.7%); MT (312, 35.4%); WY (358, 17.1%); OH (684, 91.1%); IN (879, 94.4%); UT (968, 87.2%); MI (1003, 87.9%); MA (1017, 85.3%); AK (1365, 90.9%); RI (1417, 94.3%); CT (2100, 97.8%); WI (2139, 71.7%); KY (2663, 96.5%); TN (2943, 90.6%); PA (3055, 97.6%); OK (3209, 96.5%); CO (3322, 95.8%); IL (7373, 98.7%); OR (15425, 99.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): YT (12, 0.0%); NT (14, 11.1%); NU (14, 4.6%); PE (14, 35.0%); NL (61, 14.1%); NS (74, 7.5%); MB (147, 51.2%); BC (525, 92.6%); AB (540, 84.4%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Bhutan (40), Colombia (14233), Cyprus (879), Eswatini (153, 2-day record streak), Japan (3275), Latvia (1145), Lesotho (179), South Africa (14046), United Kingdom (39387, 2-day record streak), Uruguay (709).

South Africa's active case count has increased by 6% daily over the past two weeks, rising from 51,000 to 117,000 during that time, due to the spread of the 501Y.V2 strain. The BMJ reported that it shares the N501Y mutation found in the more infectious strain found in the U.K. and Australia; there is also concern that some recent mutations may be affecting the ability of existing PCR tests to accurately detect recently mutated strains of the virus.

Thailand is seeing one new case (seven-day average) now for every five active cases (seven-day average). Three countries are doing worse by this measure: South Sudan, Suriname, and Bhutan. Among my areas of interest, the next would be Singapore with 1 for every 6 (although their total case count is much smaller), Israel and Turkey 1/9. South Africa and Malaysia would be at about 1/10; Canada and Japan at 1/11. If the average infectious period is 14 days, then a rate of 1/14 would mean that each case on average was replacing itself, so 1/5 or 1/6 are bad.

New daily case records were set in Ontario today in Peterborough (9), Lambton (20), and across the province overall (2,447). In the past seven days, the most cases that have been reported per 100,000 capita were in Windsor-Essex (293), Peel (200), Toronto (140), York (135), Niagara and Hamilton (121); the rest of the districts were below the provincial rate of 109.

Today's chart plots known active cases per capita by age range in Toronto, according to the weekly full case list published yesterday. Compared to last week, numbers are up slightly among Torontonians in their 50s, 80s and 90s, and down slightly in other age ranges; we are down 9% over a week overall. There's at least a few days' lag to these numbers though, and more recent summary data has shown a significant worsening trend, so I don't think this is cause for optimism, especially with Christmas gatherings starting to take place.

Stay safe.

2020-12-23

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (85HI→91HI), Denmark (97HI→103HI), Sweden (124HI→128HI), Alabama (139HI→137HI), U.K. (159HI→151HI), U.S. (169HI→173HI), New York (176HI→176HI), Germany (174HI→179HI), Ontario (243HI→242HI), Toronto (235HI→250HI), Israel (293HI→289HI), South Africa (308HI→292HI), Brazil (349HI→377HI), France (408HI→408HI), Spain (432HI→432HI), Singapore (12420HI→11556HI), Norway (16→15), Malaysia (71→71), Thailand (113→111), South Korea (110→112), Indonesia (131→129), Japan (131→130), Australia (2479→2383)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Israel, South Africa

Worse: Alabama, Thailand, Indonesia

The same: Ontario, Norway, Japan

Better: California, Denmark, Sweden, U.S., New York, Germany, Toronto, Brazil, Malaysia, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (new→159, 5.3%), Turkey (401→208, 12.4%), Austria (324→221, 33.4%), China (2239→484, 2.5%), Romania (438→506, 60.7%), Louisiana (new→526, 76.8%), India (755→726, 27.9%), Iran (919→796, 80.4%), Malta (383→888, 69.0%), Italy (1609→1598, 84.2%), Poland (1508→2191, 53.5%), Canada (new→3738, 97.5%), Mexico (new→71297, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (85): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Fiji (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 6.8%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 64.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Yemen (14, 16.7%); Belize (26, 25.1%); Guinea-Bissau (31, 2.0%); Laos (37, 25.0%); Djibouti (44, 2.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (51, 45.5%); Madagascar (62, 6.2%); Benin (69, 12.1%); Cambodia (69, 15.9%); Mauritius (86, 8.3%); Georgia (125, 66.6%); Togo (136, 39.8%); Finland (145, 68.8%); Croatia (179, 63.1%); Ecuador (203, 36.9%); Nepal (237, 16.1%); Liechtenstein (246, 76.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (263, 4.5%); Ethiopia (266, 40.2%); Moldova (270, 69.1%); Slovenia (282, 74.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (306, 10.8%); Jamaica (308, 76.3%); Jordan (309, 29.7%); Tunisia (318, 74.2%); Guinea (330, 29.8%); Luxembourg (331, 69.8%); Maldives (347, 18.2%); Azerbaijan (368, 86.8%); Philippines (374, 30.1%); Andorra (381, 36.7%); Qatar (436, 6.3%); Burma (463, 85.8%); Armenia (492, 41.8%); Kyrgyzstan (499, 36.6%); Ghana (500, 14.7%); Mozambique (504, 51.3%); Morocco (563, 60.7%); North Macedonia (568, 91.9%); San Marino (610, 92.1%); Bangladesh (716, 51.3%); Pakistan (776, 36.6%); Kazakhstan (813, 61.9%); Afghanistan (867, 61.6%); Tajikistan (879, 23.5%); Sri Lanka (921, 94.2%); Montenegro (1003, 80.0%); Iraq (1011, 77.8%); Bulgaria (1039, 92.5%); Vietnam (1134, 21.4%); Uganda (1238, 93.8%); Serbia (1265, 93.6%); Hungary (1513, 92.5%); Guatemala (1548, 39.6%); Mauritania (1568, 97.8%); Albania (1739, 97.0%); Kosovo (1911, 80.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1959, 91.0%); Greece (2038, 87.5%); Somalia (2084, 83.0%); Portugal (2271, 77.1%); Paraguay (2331, 98.1%); West Bank and Gaza (2341, 91.9%); Saudi Arabia (2363, 4.7%); Libya (3619, 98.0%); Honduras (4976, 98.6%); Ukraine (5475, 98.8%); Belarus (6242, 93.6%); Bahamas (6637, 62.0%); United Arab Emirates (6946, 97.2%); Algeria (11006, 99.1%); Chile (18082, 15.5%); Botswana (20711, 69.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): IA (60, 9.9%); VI (73, 42.4%); MP (130, 88.0%); MN (142, 35.3%); WY (156, 17.1%); ND (177, 19.3%); SD (256, 37.8%); NC (276, 78.6%); GU (327, 20.2%); MT (743, 36.3%); NH (786, 92.5%); OH (900, 92.1%); AK (985, 92.1%); WI (1172, 71.8%); IN (1463, 94.6%); AR (1778, 97.6%); CT (1831, 97.5%); UT (1879, 88.8%); NE (2122, 94.5%); MI (2226, 90.4%); DE (2344, 98.2%); CO (4131, 96.2%); NM (8646, 99.2%); IL (25826, 99.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): YT (12, 0.0%); NT (14, 11.1%); NU (14, 4.6%); PE (14, 35.0%); NL (61, 14.1%); NS (74, 7.5%); MB (147, 51.2%); BC (525, 92.6%); AB (540, 84.4%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Bhutan (40), Colombia (14233), Cyprus (879), Eswatini (153, 2-day record streak), Japan (3275), Latvia (1145), Lesotho (179), South Africa (14046), United Kingdom (39387, 2-day record streak), Uruguay (709).

New daily records were set in Ontario in Porcupine (4), the Southwestern district (53), Windsor-Essex (234), the whole of the South West region (395), and Hamilton (150). Week-on-week new case counts are still down in the Eastern region (but up in Ottawa), and up everywhere else. On a percentage basis, Lambton has worsened the most, rising from 21 cases (so, 3 per day) one and two weeks ago to 99 this week. For the last two weeks, all 34 districts have recorded at least one casel this has not happened before.

In Toronto, new daily hospital admissions continue to average about 30 per day, as they have for most of the month - have we reached a plateau?

Across the city, every neighbourhood reported at least one case in the past week; some as few as two, and three with 100 or more. In our neighbourhood, we saw a record eight new cases this week: a young woman under 20, three men and one woman in their 20s, a woman in her 30s, and two men in their 50s and 70s. The woman in her 20s acquired COVID-19 by travel; the rest do not know. None were hospitalized. You can interact with the chart here:

Over the past week, the number of American states whose active cases are trending downward has increased substantially. The country's total active cases are still soaring, because the larger states are still in dire trouble, and even where things are improving they are still pretty bad, but I choose to think of this as reason for optimism.

Stay safe.

2020-12-22

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (84HI→85HI), Denmark (97HI→97HI), Sweden (123HI→124HI), Alabama (144HI→139HI), U.K. (172HI→159HI), U.S. (166HI→169HI), Germany (178HI→174HI), New York (170HI→176HI), Louisiana (207HI→196HI), Toronto (235HI→235HI), Ontario (240HI→243HI), Canada (243HI→251HI), Israel (306HI→293HI), South Africa (315HI→308HI), France (408HI→408HI), Spain (432HI→432HI), Mexico (473HI→467HI), Singapore (13926HI→12420HI), Norway (18→16), Malaysia (73→71), South Korea (108→110), Thailand (154→113), Indonesia (131→131), Japan (130→131), New Zealand (1844→1844), Australia (2681→2479)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, U.K., Germany, Louisiana, Israel, South Africa, Thailand

Worse: Norway, Malaysia

Better: California, Denmark, Sweden, U.S., New York, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Austria (336→324, 38.0%), Malta (303→383, 68.7%), Turkey (803→401, 14.6%), Romania (387→438, 64.3%), India (890→755, 28.7%), Iran (838→919, 83.4%), Poland (2932→1508, 53.6%), Italy (1552→1609, 86.2%), Brazil (new→2024, 83.6%), China (1285→2239, 2.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (87): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei, Timor-Leste (11, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 11.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 3.1%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Mauritius (14, 9.9%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 64.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 84.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Yemen (14, 16.7%); Benin (25, 7.5%); Belize (30, 30.8%); South Sudan (30, 5.4%); Laos (37, 25.0%); Gambia (42, 0.4%); Burundi (49, 60.8%); Cambodia (51, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (52, 15.5%); Djibouti (59, 2.3%); Madagascar (62, 6.2%); Gabon (114, 2.8%); Guinea (115, 29.5%); Croatia (125, 63.7%); Georgia (150, 73.0%); Togo (153, 42.6%); Cabo Verde (160, 19.2%); Nepal (211, 17.1%); Luxembourg (239, 68.3%); Jordan (252, 31.4%); Ecuador (287, 34.5%); Moldova (301, 71.0%); Ethiopia (311, 44.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (327, 11.4%); Kyrgyzstan (366, 37.8%); Jamaica (383, 81.2%); Guyana (433, 56.1%); Philippines (448, 28.1%); Burma (580, 89.8%); Morocco (678, 62.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (713, 19.6%); Andorra (729, 37.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (733, 49.5%); Azerbaijan (747, 93.8%); Afghanistan (791, 60.2%); Qatar (811, 6.4%); Maldives (824, 18.9%); Pakistan (843, 38.6%); Bangladesh (873, 53.2%); Tajikistan (897, 24.0%); Guatemala (905, 38.3%); Iraq (951, 79.2%); Saudi Arabia (1025, 4.7%); Slovenia (1265, 85.1%); Bulgaria (1306, 95.4%); Armenia (1324, 44.5%); North Macedonia (1399, 93.0%); Montenegro (1462, 81.3%); Mozambique (1466, 52.8%); Taiwan (1483, 50.0%); Serbia (1594, 95.9%); Hungary (1821, 93.3%); Lebanon (1942, 92.0%); Greece (2027, 88.5%); West Bank and Gaza (2150, 92.0%); Albania (2300, 98.2%); Kosovo (2417, 81.3%); Ghana (2870, 15.0%); Libya (3000, 98.4%); Sri Lanka (3253, 96.4%); Peru (3439, 16.7%); Uzbekistan (3699, 22.0%); Kuwait (5257, 19.9%); Kazakhstan (5585, 64.7%); Algeria (7804, 99.1%); Central African Republic (12991, 63.4%); Angola (13767, 87.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (18246, 92.2%); Botswana (20711, 69.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (28): VI (57, 42.7%); IA (64, 12.1%); WY (121, 15.8%); MN (148, 38.7%); ND (149, 19.7%); MP (207, 92.3%); MT (253, 35.9%); NC (266, 73.5%); SD (275, 39.4%); NH (669, 93.6%); AK (698, 92.6%); GU (1031, 21.1%); OH (1374, 94.6%); WI (1445, 72.2%); CT (1802, 97.4%); CO (1977, 96.1%); MI (2045, 90.5%); NE (2155, 94.3%); OR (2221, 97.2%); AR (2294, 95.3%); IN (3231, 95.5%); RI (4248, 96.7%); MO (6329, 99.2%); NV (8822, 98.8%); IL (15508, 99.0%); NM (17877, 99.5%); ID (27075, 99.7%); KS (28591, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (14, 33.3%); YT (14, 5.0%); NU (18, 11.1%); NS (63, 8.2%); NB (137, 40.8%); AB (1177, 90.7%); BC (1732, 97.7%); MB (2300, 66.3%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Barbados (14), Bhutan (33), Namibia (585), Russia (28917), Thailand (809).

In Thailand, after months of fewer than 20 cases per day, an outbreak among migrate workers has seen 1,385 new cases identified in the last three days.

For the first time in weeks, there were no new daily case records set today throughout Ontario. On a weekly basis, six of the seven provincial regions saw more new cases in the past seven days than in the preceding seven; Eastern Ontario saw a 20% decrease, with decreases in each of its districts except for Ottawa.

Across Canada in the past seven days, most there have been modest improvements in active cases in the West, with B.C. down 2% to 10,847, Alberta down 9% to 19,165, Saskatchewan down 9% to 3,990, and Manitoba down 1% to 5,735. Ontario and Quebec are still doing poorly, with Ontario rising 12% to 22,956 and Quebec 11% to 18,458. Total cases in the Atlantic provinces remain in the double digits in each province, with New Brunswick down 11 to 49, P.E.I. up 1 to 18, Nova Scotia down 19 to 38, and Newfoundland and Labrador up 9 to 32. In the North, active cases dropped from 6 to 3 in the Northwest Territories, from 4 to 1 in the Yukon, and 49 to 17 in Nunavut. All the remaining cases in Nunavut are in Arviat, which saw its first COVID-19 death on the weekend.

Today's chart plots the active case history of all of the provinces. Note that it's a semilog plot, meaning that the slow gentle upward slope of Ontario and Quebec would look a lot more scarily exponential on a linear scale.

Stay safe.

2020-12-21

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (85HI→84HI), Denmark (97HI→97HI), Sweden (123HI→123HI), Alabama (144HI→144HI), U.S. (166HI→166HI), New York (170HI→170HI), U.K. (183HI→172HI), Germany (177HI→178HI), Louisiana (207HI→207HI), Toronto (233HI→235HI), Ontario (240HI→240HI), Canada (243HI→243HI), Israel (336HI→306HI), South Africa (332HI→315HI), Brazil (360HI→361HI), France (439HI→408HI), Spain (433HI→432HI), Mexico (468HI→473HI), Singapore (14607HI→13926HI), Norway (21→18), Malaysia (77→73), South Korea (107→108), Japan (131→130), Indonesia (135→131), Thailand (226→154), New Zealand (1844→1844), Australia (3045→2681)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Israel, South Africa, Norway, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand

The same: California, Japan

Better: Denmark, Sweden, Alabama, U.S., New York, Germany, Louisiana, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Brazil, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (342→303, 71.2%), Austria (378→336, 39.3%), Romania (595→387, 64.9%), Turkey (850→803, 15.8%), Iran (806→838, 84.7%), India (637→890, 29.8%), China (1103→1285, 2.6%), Italy (1030→1552, 87.5%), Poland (3903→2932, 54.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei, Timor-Leste (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 11.4%); Barbados (14, 38.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 3.1%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 31.2%); Mauritius (14, 9.9%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Seychelles (14, 20.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Cambodia (19, 20.5%); Benin (25, 7.5%); Gambia (30, 0.4%); South Sudan (47, 6.7%); Bhutan (51, 27.1%); Burundi (61, 60.0%); Madagascar (62, 6.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (91, 19.8%); Saint Lucia (100, 17.7%); Guinea (103, 30.2%); Djibouti (140, 2.6%); Togo (148, 44.9%); Nepal (160, 17.8%); Belize (181, 82.0%); Ethiopia (221, 45.8%); Croatia (228, 73.7%); Jordan (243, 32.0%); Cabo Verde (255, 19.3%); Vietnam (271, 22.2%); Andorra (295, 38.1%); Kyrgyzstan (298, 37.8%); Philippines (314, 26.1%); Gabon (345, 3.1%); Jamaica (376, 83.5%); Georgia (389, 84.1%); Moldova (498, 74.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (646, 11.4%); Qatar (699, 6.6%); Luxembourg (718, 78.3%); Guyana (727, 56.5%); Bangladesh (781, 53.9%); Pakistan (798, 38.8%); Tajikistan (847, 24.2%); Maldives (870, 19.8%); Burma (986, 92.2%); Iraq (994, 79.9%); Morocco (1055, 64.3%); Slovenia (1155, 85.4%); Azerbaijan (1231, 96.3%); Hungary (1325, 93.9%); Belarus (1327, 92.7%); Ghana (1520, 15.7%); Bulgaria (1547, 96.5%); Serbia (1825, 96.8%); Kosovo (1875, 80.9%); Uzbekistan (1889, 21.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1895, 50.7%); Saudi Arabia (1994, 4.8%); Lebanon (2047, 92.9%); Montenegro (2349, 82.7%); Greece (2416, 89.3%); Armenia (2598, 45.5%); Sri Lanka (3243, 96.9%); Costa Rica (3678, 64.7%); Kuwait (6460, 19.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (7036, 93.1%); Kazakhstan (7760, 64.7%); Algeria (7880, 99.0%); Libya (9165, 98.7%); Albania (10320, 98.6%); West Bank and Gaza (12218, 93.1%); Central African Republic (12991, 63.4%); Bahamas (15549, 62.3%); Oman (17926, 28.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): VI (90, 49.5%); IA (104, 17.4%); WY (204, 16.4%); MN (212, 41.4%); GU (233, 20.3%); MT (269, 36.1%); ND (293, 21.5%); NC (307, 68.7%); AK (637, 92.5%); SD (870, 43.2%); NH (1078, 96.5%); WI (1090, 72.3%); TX (1459, 85.6%); RI (1568, 96.6%); MI (1665, 91.3%); NE (2006, 94.8%); CO (2304, 96.5%); NM (4054, 98.8%); DE (5711, 98.6%); IL (8733, 98.9%); OR (23803, 99.6%); WA (25252, 92.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): YT (14, 5.0%); NS (60, 8.8%); NU (67, 20.9%); NB (148, 38.3%); SK (435, 81.4%); AB (858, 90.9%); MB (4498, 66.5%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Netherlands (13072), United Kingdom (36084).

The only daily record set in Ontario today was in Haldimand-Norfolk today, where there were 19 new cases. 32 of 34 districts reported new cases, a record that has been attained several times during the second wave; the only districts without new cases were North Bay Parry Sound and Leeds, Grenville & Lanark.

The Ontario government announced new restrictions to take effect on Boxing Day and continue for two weeks in the north and four weeks in the more populated south. Down here, it's no indoor social gatherings except within a household, at most 10 distanced people at indoor religious gatherings, at most 10 distanced people at outdoor gatherings. No in-person post-secondary instruction except for clinical training and trades. No in-person secondary school, no in-person elementary school for the first two weeks. Day care remain open, but are prohibited from taking on kids during school hours. Businesses may remain open if they are part of or support the essential economic supply chain. Event spaces may not open except for provision of designated services (social, child care, court, etc.). Short-term rentals (cottages) are banned to anyone who has a primary residence. Restaurants and bars may offer only take-out and delivery service. Supermarkets, pharmacies, big box retail stores, liquor stores may open at reduced capacity. Shopping malls may offer pickup by appointment at at most one indoor location. Other retail may continue to operate curbside pickup or delivery service.

... The guidance continues at greater length at https://files.ontario.ca/moh-provincewide-shutdown-en-2020-12-21-v2b.pdf

Ontarians are asked but not required to stay home except for essential purposes, and employers are asked but not required to support remote work where possible. Ontarians returning from out-of-province are asked but not required to self-isolate for 14 days. Face coverings are required in indoor spaces.

Today's chart updates one from a few weeks ago to show what's going on with the countries that have at some point accounted for 10% of the active cases in the world. They're stacked in order of the largest proportion that they managed to reach: China (100%), United States (43%), Italy (24%), India (17%), Brazil (16%), South Korea (15%), Spain and Iran (both 12%), Germany (11%). Just failing to make it are Russia (9.8%), France (9%) and Turkey (8%). The little jiggle in mid-December is an artefact of the Turkish data correction. You can interact with it here:

Lastly, I found this blog post worth the slightly (for a non-specialist) challenging read, explaining what antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) is about, and how it affects COVID-19 vaccine development. Tl;dr: antibodies are not always beneficial, and they can be harmful say when they trigger cytokine storms or trick white blood cells into swallowing active viruses that know how to proliferate inside them (as in dengue). SARS vaccine testing showed ADE effects in animal models, so a lot of attention has been paid to avoiding them in COVID-19 vaccines, which is one reason why they are thought to be safe.

Stay safe.

2020-12-20

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (88HI→85HI), Denmark (97HI→97HI), Sweden (123HI→123HI), Alabama (144HI→144HI), U.S. (163HI→166HI), New York (170HI→170HI), Germany (177HI→177HI), U.K. (200HI→183HI), Louisiana (198HI→207HI), Toronto (233HI→233HI), Ontario (248HI→240HI), Canada (243HI→243HI), South Africa (354HI→332HI), Israel (336HI→336HI), Brazil (363HI→360HI), Spain (433HI→433HI), France (439HI→439HI), Mexico (452HI→468HI), Singapore (16553HI→14607HI), Norway (23→21), Malaysia (78→77), South Korea (109→107), Japan (129→131), Indonesia (137→135), Thailand (1088→226), New Zealand (2556→1844), Australia (4138→3045)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Ontario, South Africa, Thailand

Worse: California, Brazil, Norway, South Korea, Indonesia

The same: Malaysia

Better: Denmark, Sweden, Alabama, U.S., New York, Germany, Louisiana, Toronto, Canada, Israel, Japan

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (351→342, 71.5%), Austria (382→378, 40.7%), Romania (2491→595, 66.7%), India (556→637, 30.0%), Iran (922→806, 85.8%), Turkey (1626→850, 15.9%), Italy (1345→1030, 87.2%), China (1589→1103, 2.6%), Poland (2164→3903, 54.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (69): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (eradicated); Samoa (1, 0.0%); Brunei (13, 0.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 3.1%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Madagascar (14, 9.3%); Mauritius (14, 9.9%); Seychelles (14, 20.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Cambodia (15, 19.3%); Laos (27, 31.2%); Bhutan (34, 23.5%); Gambia (42, 0.4%); Saint Lucia (44, 17.7%); South Sudan (47, 6.7%); Burundi (75, 60.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (90, 20.0%); Guinea (144, 32.4%); Peru (158, 13.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (168, 11.4%); Zambia (178, 22.0%); Ethiopia (183, 46.9%); Iceland (185, 10.1%); Andorra (193, 39.5%); Togo (193, 48.0%); Vietnam (219, 21.8%); Belize (229, 84.6%); Pakistan (257, 38.8%); Jordan (276, 34.1%); Jamaica (320, 85.4%); Nepal (351, 18.9%); Finland (365, 89.7%); Maldives (440, 19.8%); Kyrgyzstan (448, 39.4%); Croatia (510, 79.6%); Guyana (588, 55.9%); Bahrain (710, 22.0%); Bangladesh (750, 54.7%); Tajikistan (752, 24.3%); Gabon (847, 3.1%); Slovenia (915, 86.0%); Luxembourg (1100, 78.3%); Morocco (1135, 65.7%); Oman (1186, 28.0%); Costa Rica (1199, 64.7%); Saudi Arabia (1346, 4.8%); Iraq (1439, 81.4%); Bulgaria (1469, 96.8%); Armenia (1550, 45.5%); Greece (1701, 89.5%); Serbia (1959, 97.4%); Belarus (2120, 94.2%); Hungary (2238, 95.6%); Sri Lanka (2265, 98.3%); Montenegro (2348, 83.2%); Burma (2776, 93.9%); Kosovo (3227, 81.9%); Azerbaijan (3831, 98.5%); Qatar (3898, 6.8%); Uzbekistan (5841, 21.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (7867, 5.0%); Central African Republic (12991, 63.4%); Libya (89329, 99.2%); Honduras (133426, 99.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (17): IA (84, 18.2%); SD (137, 42.7%); VI (195, 49.5%); GU (208, 22.1%); WY (272, 18.8%); MN (355, 44.1%); RI (466, 91.0%); ND (611, 22.6%); AK (655, 93.7%); WI (1373, 73.3%); NE (1400, 94.8%); MT (1746, 40.0%); MI (2013, 92.5%); CO (2373, 97.2%); WA (2832, 94.2%); MO (11215, 98.6%); MA (12667, 99.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): YT (14, 5.0%); NS (60, 8.8%); NU (67, 20.9%); NB (148, 38.3%); SK (435, 81.4%); AB (858, 90.9%); MB (4498, 66.5%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Colombia (13990, 2-day record streak), Cuba (131), Cyprus (829), South Korea (1095), Thailand (576), Uruguay (607).

Thailand faces a serious challenge now, with 576 new cases reported, far surpassing its previous record of 188 cases set back at the beginning of the pandemic. 90% of the new cases are migrant workers from Myanmar, repeating a story seen in too many other countries, including Canada.

New daily case records were reached in Ontario in Timiskaming (7), York (326), the Central East region (952), Lambton (19, same as yesterday), Niagara (128, second consecutive daily record), and the Central West region (467).

In Ontario, we are listening to a steady stream of leaked information about what new measures will go into effect here this week, where the pandemic has been steadily worsening since September. The most densely populated areas are in what is being called a lockdown, but one in which schools and most businesses remain open, with no restrictions on movement and few restrictions on gathering. Most of the province is under much looser restrictions, and therefore worsening faster. Rumour has it that the so-called lockdown will spread to the whole of the province for 14 days starting Christmas Eve, and a further 14 days in the more populated south. It is possible that non-essential businesses may even be required to close as in the first wave.

I'm glad some action is being contemplated, and frustrated that it's taken three months of needless suffering and deaths to get us to this point. I don't think that 28 days will do it for the south, especially if the definition of an essential business is as loose as it was in the spring. It might be enough to ease pressure on hospitals so that the government can tell us to relax until an even larger third wave. A lot depends on how rapidly and effectively the ongoing vaccination proceeds. If we could stay locked down for say three months, and then lift restrictions for the vaccinated, I think that could end the pandemic in this region, but it's not likely to go that way.

Today's chart shows how the continents are doing. The mid-December spike in European active cases are the result of Turkey revealing that they had only been reporting cases serious enough to require medical care, rather than confirmed and probable cases. The United States continues to pull North America to ever greater heights, while everywhere else the pandemic appears to be sitting at relatively high plateaux of activity.

Stay safe.

2020-12-19

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (97HI→90HI), Denmark (103HI→103HI), Sweden (128HI→127HI), Alabama (150HI→151HI), U.S. (162HI→162HI), New York (170HI→170HI), Turkey (27HI→178HI), Germany (180HI→179HI), U.K. (231HI→212HI), Canada (237HI→239HI), Toronto (261HI→250HI), Romania (253HI→264HI), South Africa (378HI→354HI), Israel (396HI→396HI), Spain (478HI→440HI), France (486HI→448HI), Ontario (2→0), Mexico (1→1), Norway (27→27), Malaysia (64→70), South Korea (114→114), Japan (130→129), Indonesia (145→141), Thailand (1362→1342), Australia (6453→5916), China (28455→28455)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, U.K., Toronto, South Africa, Ontario, Indonesia

The same: Sweden, Germany, Japan

Better: Denmark, Alabama, U.S., New York, Canada, Romania, Mexico, Norway, South Korea

Much better: Turkey, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (63→67, 4.6%), Malta (337→425, 79.1%), Louisiana (467→445, 83.5%), India (666→531, 31.7%), Austria (471→537, 44.8%), Poland (410→659, 55.3%), Iran (838→882, 90.1%), Singapore (330→1781, 0.6%), Italy (new→5477, 90.8%), Brazil (new→11443, 85.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (eradicated); Samoa (4, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Eritrea (14, 100.0%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Madagascar (14, 9.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 80.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Guinea-Bissau (17, 3.1%); Saint Lucia (17, 20.7%); Laos (20, 31.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (51, 11.4%); Malawi (53, 11.7%); Cambodia (55, 43.2%); Fiji (64, 49.0%); Iceland (69, 10.3%); Bhutan (93, 36.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (102, 11.7%); Latvia (114, 71.0%); Gambia (126, 0.6%); Mauritius (203, 9.9%); Zambia (218, 20.2%); Ethiopia (220, 55.1%); Philippines (224, 29.9%); Cabo Verde (226, 21.2%); Maldives (233, 20.5%); Costa Rica (241, 65.5%); Jordan (245, 38.4%); San Marino (254, 84.2%); Ecuador (269, 37.2%); Montenegro (293, 84.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (319, 26.6%); Finland (336, 80.9%); Morocco (350, 67.0%); Croatia (356, 88.7%); Saudi Arabia (370, 4.9%); Peru (411, 15.0%); Nepal (415, 22.7%); Jamaica (429, 91.6%); Andorra (479, 41.9%); Mozambique (494, 51.1%); Pakistan (538, 41.0%); Bangladesh (544, 57.3%); Kyrgyzstan (545, 42.8%); Botswana (572, 67.8%); Armenia (609, 46.3%); Vietnam (656, 24.0%); Qatar (683, 6.9%); Kuwait (710, 19.9%); Georgia (719, 94.1%); Mongolia (787, 68.0%); Togo (829, 53.5%); Kosovo (845, 82.7%); Oman (985, 28.4%); Iraq (997, 83.7%); Senegal (1023, 14.4%); Tajikistan (1094, 25.0%); Guinea (1144, 39.6%); Kenya (1403, 59.2%); Moldova (1423, 81.2%); Kazakhstan (1433, 65.1%); Portugal (1631, 77.4%); Bahrain (1637, 22.4%); Greece (1677, 91.0%); Burma (1762, 96.2%); Luxembourg (1850, 82.7%); Hungary (1965, 97.5%); Slovenia (2274, 88.6%); Guyana (2439, 58.7%); West Bank and Gaza (2506, 93.5%); North Macedonia (3218, 97.2%); Libya (5457, 99.2%); Guatemala (5500, 39.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (5747, 93.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (6054, 4.0%); Bulgaria (10422, 99.5%); Central African Republic (10424, 63.5%); Ukraine (21323, 99.7%); Serbia (90894, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (23): VT (14, 99.5%); WY (68, 19.3%); IA (84, 25.6%); SD (104, 45.2%); ND (146, 24.1%); GU (160, 22.8%); MN (181, 50.6%); MP (384, 95.7%); OK (445, 90.4%); MS (469, 90.9%); PR (720, 76.9%); MT (799, 41.7%); WI (957, 75.5%); NC (1245, 96.2%); OH (1246, 94.9%); NE (2485, 97.0%); CO (3559, 98.6%); MA (3811, 86.2%); AK (3904, 98.7%); MI (3975, 94.1%); PA (5563, 98.7%); UT (6403, 89.9%); WA (8968, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NB (57, 43.3%); NU (89, 26.8%); NS (182, 11.8%); PE (229, 80.0%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Brazil (70574), Denmark (3694), Japan (2999), Latvia (1023), Liberia (97), Namibia (363), Netherlands (11271), Nigeria (930), Panama (2960), Syria (151, 3-day record streak), US (247403).

New daily records were set in Ontario in Peterborough (7), the Southwestern district (35), Windsor-Essex (190), the South West [region] (331), Hamilton (142), Wellington-Dufferin (65), and the Central West (464). In keeping with the provincial government's policy of waiting until it's far too late to take second-wave action, no new restrictions have been announced in the province today.

Today's chart is an update on how each age group is doing in Toronto. The curves have been looking pretty flat for the last two weeks, which could be taken as a good sign that although we don't know how many cases we have because of inadequate testing, that number was likely not rising too quickly or it would have shown up as a perceptible rise in positivity.

On the other hand, the provincial government reports that we have exceeded 700 new cases in Toronto for three consecutive days for the first time, and the last four days' worth of data aren't yet included in this chart.

Stay safe.

2020-12-18

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (97HI→90HI), Denmark (103HI→103HI), Sweden (128HI→127HI), Alabama (150HI→151HI), U.S. (162HI→162HI), New York (170HI→170HI), Turkey (27HI→178HI), Germany (180HI→179HI), U.K. (231HI→212HI), Canada (237HI→239HI), Toronto (261HI→250HI), Romania (253HI→264HI), South Africa (378HI→354HI), Israel (396HI→396HI), Spain (478HI→440HI), France (486HI→448HI), Ontario (2→0), Mexico (1→1), Norway (27→27), Malaysia (64→70), South Korea (114→114), Japan (130→129), Indonesia (145→141), Thailand (1362→1342), Australia (6453→5916), China (28455→28455)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, U.K., Toronto, South Africa, Ontario, Indonesia

The same: Sweden, Germany, Japan

Better: Denmark, Alabama, U.S., New York, Canada, Romania, Mexico, Norway, South Korea

Much better: Turkey, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (63→67, 4.6%), Malta (337→425, 79.1%), Louisiana (467→445, 83.5%), India (666→531, 31.7%), Austria (471→537, 44.8%), Poland (410→659, 55.3%), Iran (838→882, 90.1%), Singapore (330→1781, 0.6%), Italy (new→5477, 90.8%), Brazil (new→11443, 85.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (eradicated); Samoa (4, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Eritrea (14, 100.0%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Madagascar (14, 9.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 80.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Guinea-Bissau (17, 3.1%); Saint Lucia (17, 20.7%); Laos (20, 31.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (51, 11.4%); Malawi (53, 11.7%); Cambodia (55, 43.2%); Fiji (64, 49.0%); Iceland (69, 10.3%); Bhutan (93, 36.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (102, 11.7%); Latvia (114, 71.0%); Gambia (126, 0.6%); Mauritius (203, 9.9%); Zambia (218, 20.2%); Ethiopia (220, 55.1%); Philippines (224, 29.9%); Cabo Verde (226, 21.2%); Maldives (233, 20.5%); Costa Rica (241, 65.5%); Jordan (245, 38.4%); San Marino (254, 84.2%); Ecuador (269, 37.2%); Montenegro (293, 84.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (319, 26.6%); Finland (336, 80.9%); Morocco (350, 67.0%); Croatia (356, 88.7%); Saudi Arabia (370, 4.9%); Peru (411, 15.0%); Nepal (415, 22.7%); Jamaica (429, 91.6%); Andorra (479, 41.9%); Mozambique (494, 51.1%); Pakistan (538, 41.0%); Bangladesh (544, 57.3%); Kyrgyzstan (545, 42.8%); Botswana (572, 67.8%); Armenia (609, 46.3%); Vietnam (656, 24.0%); Qatar (683, 6.9%); Kuwait (710, 19.9%); Georgia (719, 94.1%); Mongolia (787, 68.0%); Togo (829, 53.5%); Kosovo (845, 82.7%); Oman (985, 28.4%); Iraq (997, 83.7%); Senegal (1023, 14.4%); Tajikistan (1094, 25.0%); Guinea (1144, 39.6%); Kenya (1403, 59.2%); Moldova (1423, 81.2%); Kazakhstan (1433, 65.1%); Portugal (1631, 77.4%); Bahrain (1637, 22.4%); Greece (1677, 91.0%); Burma (1762, 96.2%); Luxembourg (1850, 82.7%); Hungary (1965, 97.5%); Slovenia (2274, 88.6%); Guyana (2439, 58.7%); West Bank and Gaza (2506, 93.5%); North Macedonia (3218, 97.2%); Libya (5457, 99.2%); Guatemala (5500, 39.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (5747, 93.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (6054, 4.0%); Bulgaria (10422, 99.5%); Central African Republic (10424, 63.5%); Ukraine (21323, 99.7%); Serbia (90894, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (23): VT (14, 99.5%); WY (68, 19.3%); IA (84, 25.6%); SD (104, 45.2%); ND (146, 24.1%); GU (160, 22.8%); MN (181, 50.6%); MP (384, 95.7%); OK (445, 90.4%); MS (469, 90.9%); PR (720, 76.9%); MT (799, 41.7%); WI (957, 75.5%); NC (1245, 96.2%); OH (1246, 94.9%); NE (2485, 97.0%); CO (3559, 98.6%); MA (3811, 86.2%); AK (3904, 98.7%); MI (3975, 94.1%); PA (5563, 98.7%); UT (6403, 89.9%); WA (8968, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NB (57, 43.3%); NU (89, 26.8%); NS (182, 11.8%); PE (229, 80.0%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Brazil (70574), Denmark (3694), Japan (2999), Latvia (1023), Liberia (97), Namibia (363), Netherlands (11271), Nigeria (930), Panama (2960), Syria (151, 3-day record streak), US (247403).

New daily records were set in Ontario in Peterborough (7), the Southwestern district (35), Windsor-Essex (190), the South West [region] (331), Hamilton (142), Wellington-Dufferin (65), and the Central West (464). In keeping with the provincial government's policy of waiting until it's far too late to take second-wave action, no new restrictions have been announced in the province today.

Today's chart is an update on how each age group is doing in Toronto. The curves have been looking pretty flat for the last two weeks, which could be taken as a good sign that although we don't know how many cases we have because of inadequate testing, that number was likely not rising too quickly or it would have shown up as a perceptible rise in positivity.

On the other hand, the provincial government reports that we have exceeded 700 new cases in Toronto for three consecutive days for the first time, and the last four days' worth of data aren't yet included in this chart.

Stay safe.

2020-12-17

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (97HI→90HI), Denmark (103HI→103HI), Sweden (128HI→127HI), Alabama (150HI→151HI), U.S. (162HI→162HI), New York (170HI→170HI), Turkey (27HI→178HI), Germany (180HI→179HI), U.K. (231HI→212HI), Canada (237HI→239HI), Toronto (261HI→250HI), Romania (253HI→264HI), South Africa (378HI→354HI), Israel (396HI→396HI), Spain (478HI→440HI), France (486HI→448HI), Ontario (2→0), Mexico (1→1), Norway (27→27), Malaysia (64→70), South Korea (114→114), Japan (130→129), Indonesia (145→141), Thailand (1362→1342), Australia (6453→5916), China (28455→28455)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, U.K., Toronto, South Africa, Ontario, Indonesia

The same: Sweden, Germany, Japan

Better: Denmark, Alabama, U.S., New York, Canada, Romania, Mexico, Norway, South Korea

Much better: Turkey, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (63→67, 4.6%), Malta (337→425, 79.1%), Louisiana (467→445, 83.5%), India (666→531, 31.7%), Austria (471→537, 44.8%), Poland (410→659, 55.3%), Iran (838→882, 90.1%), Singapore (330→1781, 0.6%), Italy (new→5477, 90.8%), Brazil (new→11443, 85.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (eradicated); Samoa (4, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Eritrea (14, 100.0%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Madagascar (14, 9.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 80.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Guinea-Bissau (17, 3.1%); Saint Lucia (17, 20.7%); Laos (20, 31.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (51, 11.4%); Malawi (53, 11.7%); Cambodia (55, 43.2%); Fiji (64, 49.0%); Iceland (69, 10.3%); Bhutan (93, 36.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (102, 11.7%); Latvia (114, 71.0%); Gambia (126, 0.6%); Mauritius (203, 9.9%); Zambia (218, 20.2%); Ethiopia (220, 55.1%); Philippines (224, 29.9%); Cabo Verde (226, 21.2%); Maldives (233, 20.5%); Costa Rica (241, 65.5%); Jordan (245, 38.4%); San Marino (254, 84.2%); Ecuador (269, 37.2%); Montenegro (293, 84.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (319, 26.6%); Finland (336, 80.9%); Morocco (350, 67.0%); Croatia (356, 88.7%); Saudi Arabia (370, 4.9%); Peru (411, 15.0%); Nepal (415, 22.7%); Jamaica (429, 91.6%); Andorra (479, 41.9%); Mozambique (494, 51.1%); Pakistan (538, 41.0%); Bangladesh (544, 57.3%); Kyrgyzstan (545, 42.8%); Botswana (572, 67.8%); Armenia (609, 46.3%); Vietnam (656, 24.0%); Qatar (683, 6.9%); Kuwait (710, 19.9%); Georgia (719, 94.1%); Mongolia (787, 68.0%); Togo (829, 53.5%); Kosovo (845, 82.7%); Oman (985, 28.4%); Iraq (997, 83.7%); Senegal (1023, 14.4%); Tajikistan (1094, 25.0%); Guinea (1144, 39.6%); Kenya (1403, 59.2%); Moldova (1423, 81.2%); Kazakhstan (1433, 65.1%); Portugal (1631, 77.4%); Bahrain (1637, 22.4%); Greece (1677, 91.0%); Burma (1762, 96.2%); Luxembourg (1850, 82.7%); Hungary (1965, 97.5%); Slovenia (2274, 88.6%); Guyana (2439, 58.7%); West Bank and Gaza (2506, 93.5%); North Macedonia (3218, 97.2%); Libya (5457, 99.2%); Guatemala (5500, 39.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (5747, 93.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (6054, 4.0%); Bulgaria (10422, 99.5%); Central African Republic (10424, 63.5%); Ukraine (21323, 99.7%); Serbia (90894, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (23): VT (14, 99.5%); WY (68, 19.3%); IA (84, 25.6%); SD (104, 45.2%); ND (146, 24.1%); GU (160, 22.8%); MN (181, 50.6%); MP (384, 95.7%); OK (445, 90.4%); MS (469, 90.9%); PR (720, 76.9%); MT (799, 41.7%); WI (957, 75.5%); NC (1245, 96.2%); OH (1246, 94.9%); NE (2485, 97.0%); CO (3559, 98.6%); MA (3811, 86.2%); AK (3904, 98.7%); MI (3975, 94.1%); PA (5563, 98.7%); UT (6403, 89.9%); WA (8968, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NB (57, 43.3%); NU (89, 26.8%); NS (182, 11.8%); PE (229, 80.0%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Brazil (70574), Denmark (3694), Japan (2999), Latvia (1023), Liberia (97), Namibia (363), Netherlands (11271), Nigeria (930), Panama (2960), Syria (151, 3-day record streak), US (247403).

New daily records were set in Ontario in Peterborough (7), the Southwestern district (35), Windsor-Essex (190), the South West [region] (331), Hamilton (142), Wellington-Dufferin (65), and the Central West (464). In keeping with the provincial government's policy of waiting until it's far too late to take second-wave action, no new restrictions have been announced in the province today.

Today's chart is an update on how each age group is doing in Toronto. The curves have been looking pretty flat for the last two weeks, which could be taken as a good sign that although we don't know how many cases we have because of inadequate testing, that number was likely not rising too quickly or it would have shown up as a perceptible rise in positivity.

On the other hand, the provincial government reports that we have exceeded 700 new cases in Toronto for three consecutive days for the first time, and the last four days' worth of data aren't yet included in this chart.

Stay safe.

2020-12-16

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (106HI→97HI), Denmark (110HI→103HI), Sweden (128HI→128HI), Alabama (152HI→150HI), U.S. (160HI→162HI), New York (169HI→170HI), Germany (186HI→180HI), U.K. (244HI→231HI), Canada (237HI→237HI), Toronto (279HI→261HI), Italy (287HI→277HI), South Africa (378HI→378HI), Brazil (402HI→382HI), Israel (454HI→396HI), Spain (478HI→478HI), France (486HI→486HI), Mexico (3→1), Ontario (3→2), Norway (29→27), Malaysia (65→64), South Korea (127→114), Japan (131→130), Indonesia (147→145), Thailand (1243→1362), Australia (7098→6453), China (27689→28455)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Denmark, Germany, U.K., Toronto, Italy, Mexico, South Korea

Worse: Alabama, Norway, Indonesia

The same: Ontario, Malaysia, Japan

Better: Sweden, U.S., New York, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Turkey (29→29, 16.9%), New Zealand (1066→63, 4.6%), Singapore (new→330, 0.5%), Malta (534→337, 78.5%), Poland (352→410, 55.5%), Louisiana (new→467, 75.6%), Austria (485→471, 45.7%), India (789→666, 32.6%), Iran (973→838, 91.6%), Romania (690→1872, 72.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (1, 0.0%); Samoa (5, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 11.4%); Bahrain (14, 23.0%); Benin (14, 9.0%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 51.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 80.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Vietnam (14, 24.0%); Guinea-Bissau (17, 3.1%); Saint Lucia (19, 25.1%); Malawi (51, 11.3%); Gambia (58, 0.5%); Fiji (64, 49.0%); Bhutan (65, 36.5%); Laos (79, 43.8%); Iceland (81, 11.3%); Latvia (105, 68.4%); San Marino (117, 74.5%); Cambodia (118, 48.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (189, 12.6%); Nepal (192, 21.2%); Mauritius (203, 9.9%); Ecuador (209, 33.7%); Cabo Verde (213, 20.2%); Philippines (236, 29.1%); Jordan (244, 40.1%); Ethiopia (265, 58.8%); Costa Rica (280, 67.1%); Guyana (299, 58.7%); Mongolia (307, 68.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (313, 27.0%); Croatia (318, 86.5%); Saudi Arabia (318, 4.9%); Maldives (319, 21.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (339, 44.3%); Montenegro (370, 84.6%); Morocco (382, 68.3%); Georgia (477, 91.0%); Bangladesh (479, 58.2%); Qatar (543, 6.8%); Kyrgyzstan (545, 42.8%); Botswana (572, 67.8%); Switzerland (655, 51.3%); Armenia (663, 46.7%); Guinea (673, 39.4%); Jamaica (712, 95.2%); Kenya (769, 59.4%); Guatemala (784, 38.1%); Kosovo (810, 82.9%); Iraq (831, 84.1%); Equatorial Guinea (908, 1.9%); West Bank and Gaza (932, 92.7%); Tajikistan (949, 25.2%); Portugal (950, 76.3%); Luxembourg (977, 81.2%); Kuwait (1018, 20.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1054, 92.9%); Moldova (1112, 79.6%); Lebanon (1406, 90.8%); Gabon (1732, 3.2%); Kazakhstan (1786, 65.0%); Oman (1850, 29.0%); Burma (2150, 95.3%); Greece (2313, 91.9%); Hungary (2489, 97.8%); Togo (5484, 55.0%); Libya (6007, 99.3%); Uzbekistan (8809, 22.1%); Central African Republic (10424, 63.5%); North Macedonia (10805, 96.3%); Ukraine (17540, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (21): ND (108, 23.9%); WY (112, 21.3%); IA (113, 29.5%); MN (127, 49.8%); PR (247, 66.9%); SD (247, 56.8%); VI (265, 55.6%); MS (365, 85.1%); MP (384, 95.7%); MT (424, 40.9%); GU (637, 25.2%); WI (677, 75.9%); AR (1259, 96.7%); OK (1529, 91.6%); NC (1693, 89.8%); OR (1726, 97.1%); OH (1862, 94.4%); UT (2817, 90.9%); NE (4049, 97.9%); CO (6882, 99.3%); MI (10364, 94.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NB (57, 43.3%); NU (89, 26.8%); NS (182, 11.8%); PE (229, 80.0%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Germany (33825), Mauritania (296), South Korea (1078), Sweden (20931), Syria (150, 2-day record streak).

Ontario reported record numbers of new cases in Durham (143) and Toronto (780).

Last week, I wanted to see plateauing in Toronto's data, but I don't see it now. Throughout last week, we were seeing average hospital admissions lower than the previous week, but they've rebounded over the last four days, back to the 30 new admissions per day level that we were at at the beginning of the month.

I don't know what's up with our notification system in Toronto: last week, we were contacting 68% of new cases within 24 hours of diagnosis, and this week we are down to 16%. The tests themselves are taking even longer to process: only 26% done within 24 hours compared to 37% last week.

There were seven new cases reported in our neighbourhood, including two belated reports from the previous week, a new record. Two were identified cases of community transmission (a male youth and a woman in her 50s), one was at a healthcare facility (a man in his 60s). The other four have not had identified means of transmission, and were two women in their 20s and 50s, and two men in their 20s and 30s.

Elsewhere in the city, there was at least one reported case in each neighbourhood, with a median of 14.5 and two neighbourhoods reporting case counts in the 90s. Today's chart is a weekly update on the distribution of these cases. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-12-15

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (109HI→106HI), Denmark (110HI→110HI), Sweden (129HI→128HI), Alabama (147HI→152HI), U.S. (159HI→160HI), New York (169HI→169HI), Germany (185HI→186HI), Louisiana (201HI→200HI), Canada (231HI→237HI), U.K. (254HI→244HI), Toronto (282HI→279HI), South Africa (419HI→378HI), Brazil (389HI→402HI), Israel (471HI→454HI), Spain (577HI→478HI), France (472HI→486HI), Singapore (28631HI→26590HI), Mexico (4→3), Ontario (5→3), Norway (30→29), Malaysia (70→65), South Korea (132→127), Japan (133→131), Indonesia (149→147), Thailand (1144→1243), Australia (6354→7098)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Ontario, Malaysia, South Korea

Worse: California, Toronto, Japan, Indonesia

The same: Sweden, Louisiana, Mexico, Norway

Better: Denmark, Alabama, U.S., New York, Germany, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Turkey (68→29, 16.7%), Poland (322→352, 56.5%), Austria (411→485, 47.1%), Malta (733→534, 81.1%), Romania (552→690, 70.9%), India (990→789, 33.4%), Iran (1093→973, 92.5%), New Zealand (new→1066, 6.0%), China (1558→2641, 2.7%), Italy (7937→217920, 92.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (81): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (2, 0.0%); Samoa (6, 0.0%); Benin (14, 9.0%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Cambodia (14, 56.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (14, 4.1%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 7.9%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 51.1%); Monaco (14, 42.0%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Seychelles (14, 5.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 80.5%); Taiwan (14, 48.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Dominica (16, 17.9%); Saint Lucia (17, 25.1%); Fiji (64, 49.0%); Laos (79, 43.8%); Iceland (95, 11.5%); Equatorial Guinea (102, 1.7%); Latvia (111, 68.6%); Cameroon (122, 22.0%); Bhutan (123, 40.0%); Mauritius (131, 9.5%); Cabo Verde (133, 18.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (153, 12.6%); South Sudan (153, 8.9%); Ethiopia (215, 61.2%); Ecuador (226, 33.2%); Philippines (242, 28.0%); Mongolia (244, 69.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (252, 27.4%); Jordan (261, 41.3%); Costa Rica (293, 70.6%); Saudi Arabia (317, 5.0%); Nepal (326, 23.5%); San Marino (360, 83.6%); Morocco (414, 70.5%); Bangladesh (426, 59.2%); Maldives (439, 21.6%); West Bank and Gaza (469, 91.3%); Croatia (490, 90.1%); Luxembourg (518, 79.0%); Botswana (572, 67.8%); Vietnam (675, 24.6%); Guinea (722, 39.4%); Kuwait (780, 20.1%); Switzerland (784, 50.7%); Kyrgyzstan (813, 45.5%); Georgia (868, 88.8%); Montenegro (879, 90.2%); Iraq (895, 85.3%); Qatar (899, 7.0%); Djibouti (930, 2.1%); Guyana (951, 62.0%); Kosovo (967, 84.4%); Eswatini (1021, 17.3%); Guatemala (1021, 37.7%); Lebanon (1042, 90.5%); Jamaica (1057, 96.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1159, 94.0%); Armenia (1198, 49.3%); Moldova (1283, 78.3%); Tajikistan (1335, 25.4%); Kenya (1522, 59.9%); Andorra (1706, 45.6%); Zimbabwe (1725, 52.3%); Burundi (1830, 73.3%); Oman (1934, 29.0%); Burma (2119, 96.1%); Uzbekistan (2156, 22.1%); Greece (3840, 92.8%); Bahrain (3956, 22.8%); Argentina (3965, 70.0%); Peru (7912, 17.8%); Libya (12804, 99.4%); Kazakhstan (27221, 66.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): WY (96, 20.0%); ND (113, 26.1%); MN (128, 54.5%); IA (130, 33.9%); SD (132, 59.5%); MT (350, 40.2%); MS (363, 79.2%); MP (384, 95.7%); GU (464, 24.4%); NH (726, 94.9%); WI (815, 78.2%); UT (1485, 89.1%); VI (1912, 55.6%); OR (2192, 97.6%); NC (2626, 84.1%); NE (4733, 97.6%); MI (6602, 95.4%); CO (10227, 98.9%); AR (55080, 96.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): YT (14, 20.0%); NB (86, 50.0%); NS (164, 12.2%); SK (538, 91.8%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Canada (8377), Liechtenstein (52), Syria (136).

This week's chart is a weekly update on how our provinces are doing. British Columbia has 7% more reported active cases than seven days ago, Alberta +5%, Saskatchewan -8%, Manitoba +6%, Ontario +5%, Quebec +14%, New Brunswick -26%, P.E.I. up from 14 to 17, Nova Scotia -37%, Newfoundland and Labrador down from 28 to 23, Northwest Territories up from 0 to 6, Yukon down from 9 to 4, Nunavut down from 51 to 49.

Public Health Ontario changed its data extraction time from 10:30 to 13:00 for some health units, and also put into service new algorithms to improve data quality and reduce duplication, so results going forward may not be directly comparable to past ones.

That said, we tied our record (32 of 34) for districts reporting new cases, and set new daily records in the Central East region (896), Windsor-Essex district (185), Brant County (28), Niagara (65), and for the province as a whole (2,275).

CBC reported that the Ontario hospitals have been asked to prepare to activate their emergency plans, by ceasing elective activity such as cancer and cardiac care and organ transplants, to reserve space for an expected surge of COVID-19 cases.

It's still okay for kids to go to school though.

Stay safe.

2020-12-14

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (112HI→109HI), Denmark (110HI→110HI), Sweden (129HI→129HI), Alabama (145HI→147HI), U.S. (159HI→159HI), New York (171HI→169HI), Germany (189HI→185HI), Louisiana (201HI→201HI), Canada (231HI→231HI), U.K. (263HI→254HI), Toronto (278HI→282HI), South Africa (455HI→419HI), Israel (471HI→471HI), France (471HI→472HI), Spain (619HI→577HI), Singapore (24810HI→28631HI), Mexico (4→4), Norway (27→30), Malaysia (68→70), South Korea (134→132), Japan (135→133), Indonesia (148→149), Thailand (1204→1144), New Zealand (2545→2695), Australia (6450→6354)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Germany, U.K.

Worse: California, New York, South Korea, Japan

Better: Denmark, Sweden, Alabama, U.S., Louisiana, Canada, Toronto, Mexico, Malaysia, Indonesia

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Turkey (72→68, 16.6%), Poland (286→322, 57.7%), Austria (420→411, 47.8%), Romania (546→552, 71.1%), Malta (1372→733, 83.6%), India (886→990, 34.6%), Iran (1434→1093, 94.0%), China (1702→1558, 2.6%), Ontario (4837, no new data, 98.6%), Italy (2700→7937, 92.0%), Brazil (new→28611, 80.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (74): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (3, 0.0%); Samoa (7, 0.0%); Benin (14, 9.0%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 55.3%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 7.9%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 51.1%); Mauritius (14, 10.7%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 12.9%); Seychelles (14, 5.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 80.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Vietnam (14, 24.6%); Gambia (21, 0.7%); Laos (29, 50.0%); Saint Lucia (61, 50.2%); Fiji (64, 49.0%); Barbados (81, 30.8%); Cameroon (91, 20.3%); Equatorial Guinea (102, 1.7%); Latvia (112, 67.7%); Djibouti (121, 2.1%); Eswatini (143, 16.3%); South Sudan (153, 8.9%); Iceland (175, 13.0%); Mongolia (195, 70.2%); Cabo Verde (203, 25.0%); Bhutan (207, 41.2%); Ethiopia (210, 63.8%); Philippines (227, 26.4%); Jordan (258, 42.8%); Saudi Arabia (341, 5.2%); Bangladesh (364, 60.4%); Nepal (371, 23.5%); Ecuador (453, 33.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (472, 28.9%); Taiwan (553, 46.5%); Morocco (555, 74.2%); Costa Rica (611, 78.6%); West Bank and Gaza (674, 93.6%); Zimbabwe (716, 52.1%); Maldives (808, 22.1%); Iraq (892, 86.5%); Botswana (895, 71.9%); Oman (952, 28.9%); Kyrgyzstan (975, 43.0%); Kosovo (1027, 86.1%); Tajikistan (1120, 25.5%); Kenya (1153, 60.8%); Kuwait (1179, 20.3%); Peru (1199, 16.7%); Belarus (1261, 92.7%); Guinea (1426, 40.6%); Lebanon (1658, 91.9%); Montenegro (1741, 92.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1749, 95.3%); Burundi (1830, 73.3%); Armenia (1887, 50.4%); Haiti (2229, 34.5%); Bahrain (3082, 23.1%); Argentina (4246, 70.0%); Algeria (4832, 99.1%); Greece (5458, 93.1%); Jamaica (6182, 97.9%); Andorra (9009, 48.1%); Portugal (10759, 80.9%); Libya (14055, 99.4%); Qatar (75008, 7.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): MT (70, 43.8%); WY (113, 25.0%); ND (144, 29.0%); SD (161, 65.2%); IA (179, 41.4%); MN (180, 59.3%); TX (251, 81.1%); MS (347, 73.6%); MP (384, 95.7%); GU (519, 24.7%); WI (643, 78.3%); UT (779, 90.2%); MI (1020, 95.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (14, 100.0%); NU (14, 31.4%); YT (14, 15.0%); PE (82, 60.0%); NS (103, 12.7%); NB (150, 54.2%); SK (306, 87.8%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Azerbaijan (4451), Grenada (26), Uruguay (528).

New daily records were set in Ontario in the Southwestern district (26) and Hamilton (134), and in the Central West region (394).

Today's chart updates one from a few weeks ago, and shows how each of the seven regions in Ontario are doing with average daily new cases. Rankings are unchanged from three weeks ago, and all that's happened since is that the situation has stayed about the same in the north, and has worsened elsewhere.

Toronto hospital admission trends have flipped back from downward to upward. We are averaging 29 new admissions per day, compared to 23 a week ago. Hospital admissions are a useful proxy for infection in the community at large: it's been months since we ran out of the testing capacity necessary to know how many cases we have in the city or province, but we thankfully still have enough hospital capacity (so far) that we know how many people are sick enough to require care.

Toronto school active cases are trending far above the general population rate now that schools have the ability to test asymptomatic cases. It would be useful if testing statistics were more widely available for this process.

Stay safe.

2020-12-13

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Denmark (110HI→110HI), California (123HI→112HI), Sweden (129HI→129HI), Alabama (148HI→145HI), U.S. (158HI→159HI), New York (171HI→171HI), Germany (190HI→189HI), Louisiana (205HI→201HI), Canada (227HI→231HI), U.K. (264HI→263HI), Toronto (268HI→278HI), Brazil (396HI→395HI), South Africa (490HI→455HI), France (471HI→471HI), Israel (467HI→471HI), Spain (619HI→619HI), Singapore (25664HI→24810HI), Mexico (6→4), Norway (30→27), Malaysia (67→68), South Korea (143→134), Japan (139→135), Indonesia (148→148), Thailand (1230→1204), New Zealand (1986→2545), Australia (6168→6450)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Louisiana, Mexico, South Korea, Japan

Worse: Alabama, Norway

The same: Germany, U.K.

Better: Denmark, Sweden, U.S., New York, Canada, Toronto, Malaysia, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Turkey (new→72, 16.2%), Poland (335→286, 59.9%), Austria (304→420, 48.7%), Romania (700→546, 72.4%), India (834→886, 35.0%), Malta (500→1372, 85.5%), Iran (2684→1434, 95.6%), China (new→1702, 2.6%), Italy (2254→2700, 91.7%), Ontario (9648→4837, 98.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (69): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (4, 0.0%); Samoa (8, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Fiji (14, 57.1%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 7.9%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 51.1%); Mauritius (14, 10.7%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 36.4%); Seychelles (14, 5.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Somalia (14, 80.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Gambia (18, 0.6%); Laos (29, 50.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (35, 13.6%); Benin (54, 9.0%); Saint Lucia (65, 53.9%); Dominica (74, 39.3%); Barbados (81, 30.8%); Chad (113, 11.5%); Eswatini (151, 15.9%); South Sudan (153, 8.9%); Andorra (176, 44.4%); Mongolia (178, 70.3%); Ethiopia (192, 66.7%); Bhutan (221, 43.5%); Cameroon (232, 20.3%); Djibouti (251, 2.2%); Equatorial Guinea (257, 1.7%); Cabo Verde (264, 23.7%); Maldives (265, 23.1%); Jordan (313, 46.0%); Bangladesh (354, 62.4%); Saudi Arabia (360, 5.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (379, 29.0%); Kyrgyzstan (419, 45.8%); Nepal (483, 25.0%); Costa Rica (493, 78.6%); Iceland (535, 14.2%); Guinea (563, 40.6%); Kosovo (685, 86.7%); Taiwan (701, 47.3%); Armenia (820, 49.6%); Morocco (838, 76.1%); Botswana (895, 71.9%); Oman (983, 29.6%); San Marino (995, 93.0%); West Bank and Gaza (1089, 95.1%); Tajikistan (1126, 25.6%); Iraq (1188, 87.7%); Belarus (1320, 95.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1410, 94.4%); Gabon (1756, 3.3%); Kenya (1970, 61.0%); Kuwait (2173, 20.9%); Venezuela (3466, 32.2%); Bahrain (4686, 22.8%); Qatar (4725, 7.3%); Peru (6657, 16.7%); Colombia (9310, 40.0%); Belgium (9826, 61.9%); Argentina (11225, 71.0%); Greece (16971, 93.5%); Haiti (31004, 34.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): MP (14, 100.0%); MT (68, 43.8%); WY (127, 31.7%); IA (150, 42.4%); SD (172, 65.8%); ND (193, 30.6%); MN (245, 64.3%); TX (264, 81.2%); WI (591, 79.3%); UT (711, 90.6%); GU (867, 27.0%); MI (3674, 95.4%); NE (3876, 98.8%); RI (4264, 94.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (14, 100.0%); NU (14, 31.4%); YT (14, 15.0%); PE (82, 60.0%); NS (103, 12.7%); NB (150, 54.2%); SK (306, 87.8%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Albania (879), Belarus (1975, 3-day record streak), Burkina Faso (315), Cyprus (827), Denmark (3557), Eritrea (55), Estonia (757), Mauritania (279, 2-day record streak), Panama (2806), Slovakia (3707), South Korea (1030, 2-day record streak), Syria (130, 3-day record streak).

I heard briefly in the news a few weeks ago that the Japanese government had after an inexplicably long delay finally suspended its "Go to Travel" campaign, which offered 50% subsidies on domestic tourism expenses. I was surprised therefore to read in the Mainichi Shimbun today that the same campaign would be suspended in Tokyo and Nagoya; further research showed that the earlier suspension only applied to travel to Osaka and Sapporo. Japan has almost 30,000 active cases of COVID-19, and is in its third wave, with the first wave cresting at about 8,000 eight months ago and the second at 17,000 four months ago.

New case records were set in Ontario in Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge for the second straight day with 13, and Niagara (61).

Today's chart is a periodic update on the situation in Asia. Russia still has the most reported active cases, with almost 500,000, followed by India with a little over 350,000 and Iran with almost 250,000. 17 other countries have at least 10,000 active cases. The situation in Russia is gradually worsening (but may improve when their vaccine is widely deployed);

If you're wondering how different the strains of coronavirus are in Asia and in North America, there was an excellent article published last week by Reuters that summarized the situation as of the beginning of November: https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/EVOLUTION/yxmpjqkdzvr/index.html .

In personal news, I heard that the nursing home where two of my octagenarian aunts live will be one of the first whose staff will be vaccinated on Tuesday at our University Health Network. They've had several cases there brought in by staff, but so far no large outbreaks; I hope the vaccines work in time to prevent any more.

Stay safe.

2020-12-12

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Turkey (24HI→25HI), Denmark (138HI→110HI), California (123HI→123HI), Sweden (129HI→129HI), Alabama (151HI→148HI), U.S. (158HI→158HI), New York (171HI→171HI), Germany (194HI→190HI), Canada (226HI→227HI), U.K. (276HI→264HI), Toronto (267HI→268HI), Brazil (396HI→396HI), Israel (506HI→467HI), France (475HI→471HI), South Africa (490HI→490HI), Singapore (23624HI→25664HI), Mexico (7→6), Norway (33→30), Malaysia (72→67), Japan (140→139), South Korea (153→143), Indonesia (148→148), Thailand (1159→1230), New Zealand (1986→1986), Australia (6755→6168), China (29801→30998)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Denmark, Germany, U.K., Malaysia, South Korea

Worse: Alabama, Norway

The same: Mexico, Japan

Better: Turkey, California, Sweden, U.S., New York, Canada, Toronto, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Austria (280→304, 50.3%), Poland (343→335, 63.1%), Louisiana (589→345, 85.6%), Malta (626→500, 86.5%), Romania (1089→700, 74.2%), India (622→834, 35.4%), Italy (2138→2254, 91.7%), Iran (2216→2684, 97.5%), Spain (2816→4768, 89.5%), Ontario (new→9648, 99.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (5, 0.0%); Samoa (9, 0.0%); Gambia (14, 0.6%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 7.9%); Haiti (14, 34.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 51.1%); Madagascar (14, 8.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 36.4%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 13.9%); Seychelles (14, 5.6%); Somalia (14, 80.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Comoros (16, 4.8%); Antigua and Barbuda (20, 11.4%); Laos (29, 50.0%); Yemen (32, 16.0%); Fiji (42, 57.1%); Solomon Islands (53, 38.6%); Benin (54, 9.0%); Barbados (62, 30.8%); Dominica (74, 39.3%); Saint Lucia (102, 62.0%); South Sudan (108, 10.2%); Andorra (116, 42.8%); Cabo Verde (129, 22.6%); Chad (134, 12.0%); Cameroon (150, 19.0%); Ethiopia (173, 69.0%); Mongolia (195, 74.0%); Maldives (215, 23.0%); Eswatini (234, 17.4%); Taiwan (237, 46.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (294, 29.6%); Jordan (319, 48.1%); Kyrgyzstan (321, 45.8%); Costa Rica (329, 78.6%); Bhutan (359, 47.1%); Saudi Arabia (393, 5.5%); Bangladesh (431, 64.2%); Armenia (464, 49.8%); Iceland (507, 15.0%); Colombia (582, 38.9%); Kosovo (584, 87.1%); Nepal (633, 26.0%); Peru (643, 16.7%); San Marino (719, 92.1%); Qatar (723, 7.3%); Morocco (739, 76.7%); Guinea (757, 41.1%); Botswana (895, 71.9%); Malawi (927, 18.2%); Guyana (955, 64.7%); Oman (962, 29.6%); Lebanon (1114, 93.7%); Portugal (1182, 80.2%); Tunisia (1215, 69.3%); Zimbabwe (1216, 53.6%); El Salvador (1298, 24.2%); Tajikistan (1367, 25.9%); Iraq (1582, 88.9%); Gabon (1756, 3.3%); Belarus (1938, 95.4%); Kuwait (2302, 20.9%); Venezuela (2852, 32.3%); Eritrea (2929, 94.9%); West Bank and Gaza (3213, 97.1%); Argentina (3455, 71.1%); Mozambique (4405, 50.9%); Uzbekistan (5903, 22.1%); Greece (7554, 93.7%); Belgium (21286, 61.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): ND (66, 33.0%); MT (71, 44.9%); WY (95, 28.8%); IA (121, 43.1%); SD (155, 66.7%); GU (163, 26.3%); TX (270, 81.2%); MN (382, 70.0%); WI (559, 81.4%); UT (905, 92.5%); PR (2667, 78.0%); NE (6977, 99.1%); MI (12911, 95.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (14, 100.0%); YT (14, 15.0%); NL (78, 12.0%); NS (78, 13.1%); PE (82, 60.0%); NB (153, 60.0%); SK (276, 85.9%); AB (2714, 98.5%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Belarus (1967, 2-day record streak), Mauritania (233), Namibia (324), Nigeria (796), South Korea (950), Syria (124, 2-day record streak), Turkey (824907), US (231775).

South Korea is in the news now, partly because it was doing well for a while and now is not. They are imposing increasingly strict controls, and have gone in 30 days from 2,108 active cases to 9,665. If you look at the average number of new cases they have seen each day in the past week, and compare it to the average number of active cases they have had during that time, you find a ratio of about 1:13. If we use the rule of thumb that cases run an average of 14 days, the worst ratio that will keep your numbers from climbing is about 1:14. This is worse than that, but how does it rank in the world?

Discounting Turkey (because of their recent data adjustment), and countries with fewer than 10,000 reported active cases (because at the very low end, this sort of data gets too noisy), Georgia is at a 1:6 ratio; Chile and Croatia 1:7; Malaysia 1:8; Colombia, Denmark, Israel, South Africa and Moldova 1:9; Canada, Japan and Panama 1:11; Nepal, Belarus, India 1:12; and finally countries like Brazil and Morocco at the same 1:13 as South Korea.

New case records were set today in Ontario in: Hastings Prince Edward for the second day in a row (15), Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge also for the second day in a row (12), the Southwestern District (21), and Hamilton (109). On Monday, York and Windsor-Essex will join Toronto and Peel in partial lockdown.

It would be helpful if there were stronger messaging now from all public authorities and public figures, along the lines of "everyone please stay home for the next few months, or a lot of people are going to die early next year".

Today's chart is a weekly update comparing active cases in schools and the general population in Toronto and Ontario, showing school cases continuing to rise this week above the general average rate in both areas, despite increasing numbers of school closures. Last Wednesday, all the teachers unions in Toronto asked that schools be closed to in-person learning for the first two weeks of January, and for increased asymptomatic. Their requests were supported by the city's Medical Officer of Health, but rejected by the provincial minister of education, who lied in the face of overwhelming recent evidence in saying that schools remained safe; but refrained from suggesting that his decision might be a popular one, saying that the basis for schools staying open was a government belief that they should do so.

Stay safe.

2020-12-11

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Turkey (24HI→24HI), California (123HI→123HI), Sweden (131HI→129HI), Denmark (138HI→138HI), Alabama (150HI→151HI), U.S. (157HI→158HI), New York (168HI→171HI), Germany (200HI→194HI), Toronto (254HI→267HI), U.K. (287HI→276HI), France (486HI→475HI), South Africa (533HI→490HI), Israel (506HI→506HI), Singapore (25659HI→23624HI), Ontario (7→6), Mexico (7→7), Norway (30→33), Malaysia (77→72), Japan (144→140), Indonesia (150→148), South Korea (153→153), Thailand (1129→1159), New Zealand (1628→1986), Australia (6975→6755), China (29801→29801)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Germany, U.K., Malaysia, Japan

Worse: Sweden, Indonesia

The same: Ontario

Better: Turkey, California, Denmark, Alabama, U.S., New York, Toronto, Mexico, South Korea

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Austria (315→280, 51.7%), Poland (360→343, 65.5%), Louisiana (352→589, 85.6%), India (677→622, 35.7%), Malta (736→626, 86.2%), Romania (1302→1089, 76.0%), Italy (2490→2138, 92.0%), Iran (3876→2216, 97.7%), Spain (3224→2816, 89.1%), Brazil (new→27650, 77.0%), Canada (new→31838, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (6, 0.0%); Samoa (10, 0.0%); Gambia (14, 0.5%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 51.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Seychelles (14, 18.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Antigua and Barbuda (15, 9.1%); Comoros (16, 4.8%); Laos (23, 50.0%); Dominica (31, 32.1%); Fiji (42, 57.1%); Yemen (43, 15.9%); Solomon Islands (53, 38.6%); Benin (59, 9.0%); Liechtenstein (67, 46.1%); Burundi (73, 74.2%); Barbados (75, 28.8%); Cabo Verde (76, 22.6%); Mauritius (80, 10.7%); South Sudan (108, 10.2%); Maldives (110, 23.1%); Chad (111, 12.5%); Andorra (150, 46.4%); Mongolia (179, 77.4%); Guinea-Bissau (184, 7.9%); Guinea (194, 41.0%); Ethiopia (195, 74.5%); Madagascar (198, 8.0%); Pakistan (211, 42.7%); San Marino (234, 89.7%); Bhutan (235, 45.9%); Costa Rica (235, 82.2%); Saint Lucia (235, 67.5%); Colombia (304, 38.4%); Jordan (331, 49.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (342, 30.7%); Gabon (350, 3.2%); Taiwan (363, 48.1%); Saudi Arabia (388, 5.6%); Nepal (439, 26.5%); Kosovo (441, 88.0%); Tunisia (458, 68.5%); Kyrgyzstan (479, 47.6%); Armenia (497, 51.1%); Qatar (520, 7.3%); Bangladesh (546, 66.1%); Morocco (608, 78.5%); Tajikistan (810, 25.9%); Portugal (842, 79.2%); Malawi (848, 18.2%); Switzerland (894, 53.8%); Equatorial Guinea (930, 2.0%); North Macedonia (1006, 95.3%); Kuwait (1018, 21.0%); Guyana (1031, 63.9%); Argentina (1240, 70.9%); Oman (1274, 29.6%); El Salvador (1413, 24.3%); Iceland (1452, 14.6%); Kenya (1676, 61.5%); Iraq (1857, 89.9%); Mozambique (1948, 48.5%); Bahamas (2020, 59.3%); Venezuela (2020, 32.4%); Slovakia (2050, 75.1%); Zimbabwe (2052, 53.3%); Eswatini (2434, 17.8%); Montenegro (2505, 94.3%); Lebanon (4124, 94.6%); Bolivia (4488, 28.0%); Belarus (8408, 94.9%); Kazakhstan (10763, 66.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (12359, 97.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): WY (67, 28.5%); MT (73, 45.0%); ND (93, 35.6%); IA (108, 47.3%); TX (114, 63.7%); GU (158, 25.9%); PR (467, 76.0%); SD (563, 80.7%); UT (657, 91.9%); WI (744, 82.9%); NE (3430, 98.6%); OK (35976, 93.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NL (36, 10.4%); NS (61, 13.7%); YT (66, 50.0%); MB (78, 62.2%); NU (91, 27.5%); NB (225, 62.5%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Albania (873), Belarus (1939), Croatia (4620), Denmark (3132, 3-day record streak), Finland (840), Germany (32734), Japan (2977, 2-day record streak), Malaysia (2234), Panama (2447), Syria (112), Uruguay (383).

For the first time in 45 days, Canada's active case count is showing a short-term downward trend.

New records were set in Ontario in the Eastern Ontario district (46, double yesterday's 23); Hastings Prince Edward (9); Leeds, Grenville & Lanark (17); Renfrew (19); and Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit (8).

I was thinking again today about a statistic that I thought a lot about at the beginning of the pandemic, which was what I thought my chance of dying was as a result of COVID-19. I find that there's a sharp increase to my stress levels somewhere around the 1 in 10,000 fatality (100 micromort level), and I wanted to calibrate how worried I should be. I don't mean just living everyday life for a few days as a man in his fifties (which carries that level of baseline risk), but things like scuba diving (20 dives), skydiving (12 jumps), or childbirth (per delivery).

Right now for an average Torontonian, the risk, calculated as the number of new cases today divided by the population of the city, is about 1 in 5,500 per day (so my fatality risk is perhaps 1 in 550,000). Over the course of 30 days, that would be 1 in 150 to get sick or 1 in 15,000 to die. So stress levels remain lowish. Lower still if you look at the neighbourhood that I live in, where the numbers would be 1 in 28,000 (2,800,000) per day and 1 in 900 (90,000) per month.

Among my regions of interest, the ones that are seeing new cases at a rate corresponding to 1% of the population per month are Austria, Germany, Italy, Poland, the U.K. I would find have trouble sleeping with those odds. These regions are doing substantially worse: Denmark, Romania, Sweden, and the U.S. (including the individually tracked states). Areas that are less dangerous than 1/100/month but more dangerous than about 1/200/month are Brazil, Canada, France, Iran, Israel, Malta, Ontario, Spain, Toronto.

One problem with this way of thinking though is that it diminishes the gravity of the situation in places like India, where there are 30,000 new cases a day, but your chances of being one of them are only 1 in 50,000 or so because of the size of the population. It's important to think of epidemic issues both in terms of absolute numbers and numbers per capita.

So with that in mind, we'll take a look at the week's cases per capita in Toronto neighbourhoods in this week's chart. Note that the adaptive (Jenks) colouring is used to indicate relative intensity within the city, and is not directly comparable with last week. You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

https://www.poslfit.com/covid19

2020-12-10

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Turkey (91HI→24HI), California (129HI→123HI), Sweden (134HI→131HI), Denmark (159HI→138HI), Alabama (157HI→150HI), U.S. (157HI→157HI), New York (168HI→168HI), Canada (225HI→225HI), Toronto (260HI→254HI), U.K. (301HI→287HI), Brazil (398HI→396HI), France (493HI→486HI), Israel (537HI→506HI), South Africa (593HI→533HI), Singapore (24394HI→25659HI), Mexico (8→7), Ontario (8→7), Norway (32→30), Japan (146→144), Indonesia (141→150), South Korea (154→153), Thailand (1171→1129), Australia (6076→6975), China (29234→29801)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Turkey, California, Denmark, Alabama, Toronto, U.K.

Worse: Sweden, Norway, Japan

The same: Mexico, Ontario, South Korea

Better: U.S., New York, Canada, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Austria (257→315, 53.3%), Louisiana (466→352, 79.4%), Poland (457→360, 67.9%), India (693→677, 36.6%), Malta (434→736, 87.4%), New Zealand (268→1043, 5.9%), Romania (1683→1302, 77.6%), Germany (2379→2164, 95.9%), Italy (2814→2490, 92.7%), Spain (2595→3224, 89.3%), Iran (7637→3876, 98.6%), Malaysia (new→15904, 74.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (87): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (7, 0.0%); Samoa (11, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Dominica (14, 46.4%); Georgia (14, 100.0%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 51.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 18.0%); Suriname (14, -0.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Togo (14, 52.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (15, 9.1%); Comoros (16, 4.8%); Gambia (40, 1.3%); Fiji (42, 57.1%); Solomon Islands (53, 38.6%); Benin (59, 9.0%); Yemen (65, 15.5%); Burundi (73, 74.2%); Mauritius (80, 10.7%); Chad (99, 12.2%); Maldives (99, 22.9%); Liechtenstein (103, 47.0%); Laos (125, 73.4%); Cabo Verde (145, 28.3%); Andorra (159, 48.3%); Guinea-Bissau (184, 7.9%); Saint Lucia (185, 69.2%); Ecuador (192, 36.0%); Madagascar (198, 8.0%); Guinea (209, 41.4%); Kyrgyzstan (210, 44.7%); San Marino (220, 89.1%); Ethiopia (221, 78.2%); South Sudan (240, 10.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (257, 12.9%); Nepal (266, 26.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (273, 30.6%); Costa Rica (277, 84.6%); Jordan (312, 51.0%); Qatar (314, 7.2%); Guyana (331, 60.2%); Pakistan (337, 44.4%); Mongolia (344, 80.2%); Kuwait (345, 20.9%); Gabon (350, 3.2%); Philippines (359, 31.9%); Venezuela (361, 32.4%); Saudi Arabia (376, 5.8%); Colombia (383, 39.1%); Slovakia (403, 71.8%); Kosovo (441, 89.5%); Iceland (452, 14.9%); Uzbekistan (501, 21.0%); Armenia (645, 51.6%); Bhutan (667, 44.7%); Morocco (671, 80.5%); Guatemala (752, 38.5%); Bangladesh (798, 68.7%); Argentina (801, 70.8%); Peru (820, 17.3%); Tunisia (882, 68.7%); Equatorial Guinea (930, 2.0%); North Macedonia (982, 95.7%); Switzerland (1008, 54.1%); Malawi (1015, 18.2%); Luxembourg (1034, 80.9%); Lebanon (1061, 94.4%); Tajikistan (1255, 26.1%); Mozambique (1357, 47.1%); Bolivia (1395, 27.8%); Croatia (1395, 97.0%); Belarus (1955, 95.8%); Bahamas (2020, 59.3%); Portugal (2509, 81.2%); Burma (2673, 97.1%); Iraq (2919, 91.1%); Czechia (4106, 30.8%); Angola (4532, 82.8%); Oman (8113, 30.1%); Greece (9611, 93.9%); Kazakhstan (25931, 66.0%); Kenya (39572, 63.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): GU (69, 26.1%); WY (78, 34.0%); ND (97, 37.2%); IA (140, 52.9%); PR (279, 68.1%); OK (556, 86.4%); WI (781, 84.3%); NC (817, 94.4%); UT (1827, 95.8%); SD (3428, 83.9%); IN (65258, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NL (56, 10.4%); YT (66, 50.0%); NS (68, 15.2%); NB (71, 61.7%); MB (81, 61.8%); NU (118, 31.4%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Cuba (124), Denmark (2563, 2-day record streak), Japan (2837), Mauritania (229), Moldova (1766), Uganda (1859).

Turkey's cumulative case numbers almost doubled today, when it was revealed that yesterday's 925,312 total represented only those patients who had required medical care for COVID-19. The cumulative number of patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 is in fact 1,748,567. This will take a while to work its way through the statistical series. I went to see how this might distort Turkey's ranking in number of active cases; it would be enough to temporarily move it from 35th in the world up into the top ten. Curiously, the U.S. position at the top of that list is not secure; they had been overtaken for a while by Montenegro and have only this week managed to return to global supremacy.

The New York Times reports that part of the problem is that while Turkish residents are subject to strict curfew regulations, these do not apply to tourists, and the local tourism economy is booming.

The problem in Montenegro appears to be that pandemic restrictions are not being applied uniformly, and are in particular not being enforced at political rallies and large funerals.

In Ontario today, we tied our record for number of district health units reporting new cases, with 32 of 34 doing so. Of them, the ones who reported a record high number were Timiskaming (2), Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington (17), Windsor-Essex (112), and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health (55). The province itself set a new daily record with 1,983 newly reported cases.

It was also announced locally that the first vaccinations in the province will be administered on Tuesday at Toronto's University Health Network and the Ottawa Hospital. Not surprisingly, the vaccine task force has determined that the Pfizer vaccine cannot be given to nursing home patients as originally planned, because its cold storage requirements mean that it can only be given to patients who can travel to the vaccination site. They will therefore be starting with nursing home staff, which should have a significant effect on reducing contagion and the ability of nursing homes to continue to function. The province is expected to get 90,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine, to be followed by "35,000 to 85,000" doses of the Moderna vaccine, whose storage requirements are not as severe.

Today's chart is a weekly update on age demographics of reported cases in Toronto. Since the start of the pandemic, one in 76 Torontonians aged 90 and older has reportedly died of COVID-19, as have one in 210 in their 80s, one in 570 in their 70s, one in 1,900 in their 60s, and one in 7,6nd00 in their 50s. Reported numbers are up since last week in under-20s (presumably due to more testing in schools) and among octagenarians (presumably because of outbreaks in nursing homes), and down in other age groups.

I have one small piece of optimistic news about Toronto though for the first time in months. While I don't have a lot of confidence in reported case counts at this point, because as I have said repeatedly before, they are inconsistent with the other reported data; this is the first week in this long second wave when average hospital admissions have decreased. I think this is significant, because although the new case counts are suspect because of how limited testing, and death counts are so far thankfully too small not to be statistically noisy and are in any case lagging new case reports by ten days or so, the hospital admissions are pretty well synchronized with new case counts (admittedly because it's only when someone gets sick enough to go to hospital that they qualify for a test). We're also seeing (unfortunately) a significant number of hospital admissions, which makes them more useful as a proxy for new cases than deaths. So assuming (I think safely) that there hasn't been a recent change in the average severity of cases, the number of cases at large should be roughly proportional to the number of hospital admissions, and that number is down 14% since last week.

If we estimate conservatively that there are four times as many cases as we are seeing in testing, and if cases continue to decrease by 14% weekly because the current lockdown is extended indefinitely, then we could be down to a point where we are identifying most cases by mid-February, and down to fewer than 20 cases a day by mid-May.

If we can get enough people vaccinated that that 14% weekly decrease is doubled to a 28% weekly decrease, then those dates shift from mid-February to mid-January, and mid-May to late February.

Stay safe.

2020-12-09

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Turkey (88HI→91HI), California (136HI→129HI), Sweden (138HI→134HI), Alabama (153HI→157HI), U.S. (159HI→157HI), Denmark (159HI→159HI), New York (170HI→168HI), Canada (222HI→225HI), Toronto (266HI→260HI), U.K. (301HI→301HI), France (493HI→493HI), Israel (558HI→537HI), South Africa (641HI→593HI), Singapore (26105HI→24394HI), Mexico (9→8), Ontario (9→8), Norway (29→32), Malaysia (89→88), Indonesia (142→141), Japan (147→146), South Korea (157→154), Thailand (1235→1171), Australia (5670→6076), China (28168→29234)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Sweden, Toronto

Worse: U.S., New York, South Korea

The same: Mexico, Ontario, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan

Better: Turkey, Alabama, Denmark, Canada, U.K.

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Austria (325→257, 54.1%), New Zealand (154→268, 5.9%), Malta (2484→434, 87.5%), Poland (485→457, 72.0%), Louisiana (new→466, 74.3%), India (673→693, 37.2%), Romania (1294→1683, 79.1%), Germany (783→2379, 94.5%), Spain (6581→2595, 88.9%), Italy (2591→2814, 93.6%), Iran (new→7637, 99.2%), Brazil (new→32402, 73.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (8, 0.0%); Samoa (12, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Cameroon (14, 23.1%); Comoros (14, 4.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 39.8%); Dominica (14, 46.4%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 51.1%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 33.3%); Seychelles (14, 18.0%); Suriname (14, -0.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Madagascar (35, 8.0%); Gambia (40, 1.3%); Fiji (42, 57.1%); Solomon Islands (53, 38.6%); Burundi (66, 70.8%); Mauritius (80, 10.7%); Cabo Verde (92, 26.1%); Laos (125, 73.4%); Maldives (127, 25.7%); Yemen (127, 15.5%); Chad (136, 13.5%); Equatorial Guinea (144, 1.8%); Iceland (181, 14.9%); Guinea-Bissau (184, 7.9%); Guinea (189, 42.7%); Saint Lucia (205, 73.1%); Nepal (206, 27.2%); Ecuador (214, 34.5%); Kuwait (245, 21.2%); Mongolia (258, 81.2%); Guyana (261, 59.0%); Barbados (284, 36.5%); Qatar (292, 7.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (304, 31.3%); Ethiopia (309, 83.4%); Costa Rica (311, 86.1%); Andorra (313, 52.1%); Saudi Arabia (314, 5.9%); Pakistan (316, 43.4%); Jordan (317, 53.2%); Slovakia (320, 71.4%); Philippines (368, 30.5%); Croatia (391, 88.5%); Guatemala (509, 37.9%); Zambia (519, 14.8%); Kyrgyzstan (557, 50.1%); Colombia (558, 40.2%); Kosovo (576, 92.0%); San Marino (591, 95.4%); Switzerland (652, 52.8%); Morocco (699, 80.3%); Argentina (723, 71.3%); Tunisia (757, 67.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (797, 13.5%); Lesotho (855, 85.3%); Gabon (896, 3.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (905, 3.6%); Lebanon (914, 93.8%); Togo (919, 50.7%); Armenia (920, 52.2%); Luxembourg (1034, 80.9%); Portugal (1040, 79.3%); Czechia (1125, 30.4%); Burma (1291, 95.0%); Venezuela (1380, 32.6%); Bolivia (1418, 27.9%); Angola (1439, 82.5%); Malawi (1467, 18.4%); Bangladesh (1475, 71.3%); Tajikistan (1974, 26.2%); North Macedonia (2630, 97.0%); Uzbekistan (2839, 22.1%); Iraq (3124, 91.2%); Greece (3396, 93.8%); Liechtenstein (3434, 49.3%); Bahamas (3471, 60.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): GU (92, 27.9%); WY (173, 41.9%); IA (174, 56.8%); ND (373, 38.7%); WI (706, 86.0%); NC (952, 86.9%); OK (1272, 87.2%); MS (1762, 93.1%); MN (1989, 77.0%); UT (2780, 96.7%); AR (5348, 98.5%); NM (5356, 96.2%); SD (12440, 83.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); NL (56, 10.4%); YT (66, 50.0%); NS (68, 15.2%); NB (71, 61.7%); MB (81, 61.8%); NU (118, 31.4%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Cyprus (419, 2-day record streak), Denmark (2155), Niger (93), Sweden (18820).

JHU data have finally cleared the cruise ship MS Zaandam, which according to news reports may have had close to 300 cases and 4 fatalities. These were listed in the database for a long time as 7 active cases and 2 deaths, I can only assume because the remaining cases were assigned to sovereign nations. Then in the last week, the 7 active cases were declared recovered. Kudos to the JHU database editors for trying to keep track of these stateless cases; it appears to be official policy in the European Union (and I would not be surprised to learn elsewhere) not to count stateless or sometimes even documented migrants among national COVID-19 statistics.

In Ontario, new case records were set today in Hastings Prince Edward (9); Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge (8); Windsor-Essex (94); and Haldimand-Norfolk (14).

In the past week the North West (-4%), North East (+4%), Central West (+1%), Central East (+2%), and Toronto (+5%) have seen a steady level of reported new daily cases. The East is up +28% (although Ottawa itself is stable at +0%), and the South West +65%. The province as a whole was up 7%.

In our neighbourhood this week, one of the cases reported last week was reassigned to Thorncliffe Park, but a woman in her 40s with unknown transmission and unknown location last week was reassigned to our neighbourhood, so we would break even before adding our four new cases. Our new cases are a man and a woman in their thirties (sporadic cases, transmission unknown), and a man in his sixties and a male youth in a declared outbreak in an unspecified healthcare institution or other congregate setting.

There were no neighbourhoods in the city this week that did not report new cases. The fewest was 2, the most was 120, the median 14. This week's chart is the weekly update on Toronto neighbourhoods. You can interact with it here:

Vaccinations should start next week in Toronto, and take about a year to administer to everyone who wants and needs them. In half a year, it might even be safe to go shopping without a mask here.

Stay safe.

2020-12-08

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Turkey (0→88HI), California (144HI→136HI), Sweden (143HI→138HI), Alabama (159HI→153HI), Denmark (180HI→159HI), U.S. (162HI→159HI), New York (205HI→170HI), Louisiana (172HI→204HI), Canada (223HI→222HI), Toronto (254HI→266HI), Iran (273HI→285HI), U.K. (296HI→301HI), Brazil (399HI→401HI), Israel (574HI→558HI), South Africa (679HI→641HI), Singapore (27051HI→26105HI), Mexico (10→9), Ontario (10→9), Norway (34→29), Malaysia (83→89), Indonesia (142→142), Japan (145→147), South Korea (162→157), Thailand (1333→1235), Australia (6253→5670), China (29790→28168)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Turkey, California, Sweden, Alabama, Denmark, New York, Norway, South Korea

Worse: U.S.

The same: Canada, Mexico, Ontario

Better: Toronto, Iran, U.K., Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan

Much better: Louisiana

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (96→154, 5.8%), Austria (318→325, 58.3%), Poland (505→485, 73.9%), India (888→673, 37.7%), Germany (new→783, 91.9%), Romania (396→1294, 79.5%), Malta (3429→2484, 92.4%), Italy (2218→2591, 94.0%), Spain (3422→6581, 90.5%), France (963→7466, 68.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (9, 0.0%); Samoa (13, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 39.8%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Nicaragua (14, 99.5%); Papua New Guinea (14, 28.6%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 33.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Comoros (17, 8.7%); Dominica (25, 46.4%); Burundi (36, 55.8%); Mauritius (42, 9.1%); Madagascar (44, 9.1%); Cameroon (46, 23.1%); Seychelles (51, 18.0%); Kenya (88, 62.1%); Chad (95, 13.8%); Laos (125, 73.4%); Maldives (135, 26.3%); Cabo Verde (138, 27.5%); Guinea (139, 42.7%); Equatorial Guinea (144, 1.8%); Guinea-Bissau (184, 7.9%); Kuwait (198, 21.2%); Ecuador (205, 32.9%); Nepal (206, 27.7%); Vietnam (269, 22.0%); Togo (270, 49.7%); Gambia (274, 1.8%); Saudi Arabia (280, 6.0%); Pakistan (299, 42.3%); Philippines (317, 29.0%); Saint Lucia (323, 75.8%); Slovakia (324, 72.9%); Liechtenstein (335, 47.0%); Mongolia (345, 84.6%); Jordan (395, 55.4%); Trinidad and Tobago (399, 32.6%); Ethiopia (410, 88.3%); Switzerland (410, 49.8%); Costa Rica (434, 90.1%); Andorra (446, 54.5%); Gabon (453, 3.3%); Croatia (542, 90.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (562, 3.7%); Qatar (569, 7.6%); Iceland (601, 15.7%); Guatemala (623, 37.5%); Morocco (639, 81.5%); Kosovo (729, 93.3%); Peru (754, 17.8%); Argentina (804, 72.1%); Luxembourg (809, 80.9%); Bolivia (941, 28.0%); Bahamas (1167, 60.3%); Venezuela (1216, 32.7%); Armenia (1440, 54.5%); Bangladesh (1518, 71.6%); Lesotho (1553, 86.0%); Angola (1960, 82.5%); Montenegro (2285, 92.8%); Colombia (2463, 42.2%); Lebanon (2523, 97.7%); Czechia (3193, 31.7%); Greece (3466, 94.3%); Iraq (3806, 91.6%); Burma (4415, 96.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (6194, 96.6%); Tajikistan (6937, 26.4%); North Macedonia (18538, 96.2%); Honduras (48640, 98.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): WY (106, 41.8%); GU (167, 31.3%); IA (198, 62.0%); ND (335, 40.5%); NC (745, 78.1%); MS (779, 84.7%); MN (1056, 78.7%); NM (1140, 92.8%); WI (1224, 88.7%); UT (2752, 97.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); NS (50, 16.7%); YT (66, 50.0%); NB (67, 68.3%); MB (84, 62.2%); NU (121, 28.8%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Cuba (124), Cyprus (416), Mali (155), Uganda (701).

My CMAJ and JHU feeds were stuck for a few days, owing to a repository issue. When I restarted the feed tonight, I noticed that JHU no longer categorises Western Sahara as a country, but has recently added Samoa to its coverage; Samoa has had two active cases recently for the first time, as the result of repatriated sailor bringing home the disease.

It's also been a few days since I looked at each of the districts and regions in the province. Three days ago, Leeds, Grenville & Lanark set a record with 13 cases; Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge also set a record with 7 cases; as did York with 249 and the Central East region with 884. Two days ago, Timiskaming saw two cases in a day, and another case today, the first time they had seen cases on consecutive days; Durham also set a record with 133 cases. Simcoe Muskoka set consecutive records over the past two days, with 60 and 62 cases. The province as a whole set records three and two days ago, with 1,924 and then 1,925 cases. Today, it was back down to 1,676.

I read that Premier Ford was getting some pushback about his plan to try vaccinating long-term care residents and staff in Toronto and Peel first before broadening the scope of the programme to the rest of the province. I'm not a huge fan of Premier Ford, but this criticism seems unfair to me. It's going to be difficult to get enough people in one place vaccinated quickly enough before the Pfizer vaccine warms to the point where it loses efficacy, and it seems easier to me to do so where the population is dense.

Today's chart shows how the provinces are doing. Alberta surpassed Ontario in absolute numbers of active cases according to the CMAJ database a few days ago, and is followed by Quebec, B.C., Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Manitoba's active cases dropped steeply on Monday, following the review and closing of older cases that had been considered active.

On a per capita basis, Manitoba had been doing the worst by far, but the data adjustment drops them to a close third place behind Alberta (461 active cases per 100K capita) and Saskatchewan (396, with 390 in Manitoba). Then it's B.C. with 199, Quebec 173, Ontario 135, Yukon 24, New Brunswick 10, P.E.I. 9, Nova Scotia 8, Nunavut 6, Newfoundland and Labrador 5, and Northwest Territories 0.

In terms of weekly change in active cases, P.E.I is up by a factor of 3.5 (from 4 to 14), Alberta +23%, Saskatchewan +22%, Quebec +21%, Ontario +10%, B.C. +6%, Newfoundland and Labrador -15%, New Brunswick -29%, Manitoba -36% thanks to the data adjustment, Yukon -41%, Nova Scotia -45%, Nunavut -53%.

Stay safe.

2020-12-07

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (143HI→143HI), California (170HI→144HI), Alabama (158HI→159HI), U.S. (167HI→162HI), Louisiana (204HI→172HI), Denmark (180HI→180HI), Germany (202HI→201HI), New York (205HI→205HI), Canada (222HI→223HI), Toronto (252HI→254HI), Iran (263HI→273HI), Israel (608HI→574HI), South Africa (744HI→679HI), Singapore (31652HI→27051HI), Turkey (0→0), Mexico (12→10), Ontario (11→10), Malaysia (87→83), Indonesia (146→142), Japan (143→145), South Korea (175→162), Thailand (1328→1333), Australia (5904→6253), China (28947→29790)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, U.S., Louisiana, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea

Worse: Mexico

The same: Germany, Ontario

Better: Sweden, Alabama, Denmark, New York, Canada, Toronto, Iran, Turkey, Japan

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (96, no new data, 6.4%), Austria (318, no new data, 64.6%), Romania (396, no new data, 81.5%), Poland (505, no new data, 80.9%), Norway (566, no new data, 93.0%), India (888, no new data, 40.3%), Brazil (931, no new data, 73.3%), France (963, no new data, 68.7%), Italy (2218, no new data, 95.5%), Spain (3422, no new data, 90.8%), Malta (3429, no new data, 94.4%), U.K. (29341, no new data, 94.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (12, 0.0%); Suriname (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Chad (14, 15.5%); Comoros (14, 17.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 39.8%); Gabon (14, 3.4%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 81.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Dominica (25, 46.4%); Cameroon (47, 23.1%); Seychelles (51, 18.0%); Benin (87, 12.6%); Vietnam (94, 21.6%); Kenya (100, 62.0%); Mauritius (119, 13.0%); Equatorial Guinea (127, 2.0%); Saint Lucia (156, 81.0%); Guinea (172, 49.8%); Rwanda (181, 15.0%); Kuwait (191, 24.5%); Peru (202, 16.1%); Guyana (219, 65.9%); Maldives (223, 32.3%); Liechtenstein (241, 49.7%); Togo (242, 52.2%); Bolivia (249, 28.7%); Saudi Arabia (316, 6.6%); Botswana (327, 71.8%); Mongolia (331, 90.0%); Nepal (344, 33.1%); Jordan (360, 61.4%); Slovakia (442, 82.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (458, 34.4%); Andorra (470, 57.1%); Armenia (480, 54.7%); Portugal (532, 83.0%); Mozambique (609, 50.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (626, 3.7%); Haiti (641, 33.5%); Bahamas (736, 60.9%); Czechia (773, 31.7%); Morocco (789, 85.7%); Nigeria (874, 18.0%); Kyrgyzstan (1246, 53.6%); Angola (1320, 84.6%); Ethiopia (1367, 96.1%); Venezuela (1730, 33.4%); Tajikistan (2802, 26.6%); Bangladesh (2805, 73.6%); Greece (3397, 95.0%); Montenegro (4052, 94.2%); Belgium (5007, 61.9%); Russia (5298, 98.7%); Ireland (6572, 82.4%); Kosovo (7469, 98.7%); Uzbekistan (7961, 22.4%); Oman (8409, 30.2%); Central African Republic (11887, 62.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (21125, 96.4%); Costa Rica (29729, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): GU (147, 30.9%); WY (234, 48.2%); ND (266, 40.5%); IA (322, 71.3%); NC (815, 71.8%); MN (964, 74.4%); WI (971, 88.4%); MS (1401, 79.5%); UT (4822, 98.7%); NM (4908, 96.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (3, 0.0%); NU (25, 33.4%); YT (36, 60.0%); NL (55, 14.1%); NS (132, 25.1%); NB (277, 92.5%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Belarus (1774, 2-day record streak), Eritrea (38), Georgia (5068), Niger (86), Panama (2388), US (227885, 2-day record streak), Uruguay (276, 2-day record streak).

Kenya's sudden flip from active cases slowly increasing toward 30,000 cases to fewer than 20,000 now appears to be the result of some sort of onetime adjustment adding 12,000 new recoveries to the JHU database; they will likely resume their upward drift tomorrow.

Turkey is still an extreme outlier on my list; they've reached the 1% mark, but their active cases are still increasing at more than 10% daily. The only country in a comparable situation in the world now is Belize, which has just about 1% of their population currently actively infected and increasing at 12% daily.

With the recent and imminent roll-out of vaccination, I've been thinking a lot about how things are likely to go in the next several months, and we're beginning to hear about updated epidemiological modelling that takes it into account. I think the only thing that we can say for certain is that vaccination will have no effect on the pandemic for at least two months; beyond that, just like they have been all year, the psychology of the mob and access to healthcare will be more important than medical details. In the long term of course, there are also uncertainties about how long immunization lasts.

Thanks to Bruce Macintosh for pointing out that the series in yesterday's chart would align better if they were adjusted for phase as well as amplitude. Today's chart corrects that. The recent bump in hospital admissions and deaths shows pretty clearly that there's a ten-day phase difference between those series; it's a little depressing that hospital admissions seem to fit reported cases best with no lag, because that means that people aren't getting tested until they show up at hospital emergency rooms.

You can interact with the updated chart here:

Stay safe.

2020-12-06

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (143HI→143HI), Alabama (158HI→158HI), U.S. (173HI→167HI), California (170HI→170HI), Denmark (221HI→180HI), Germany (205HI→202HI), Louisiana (204HI→204HI), New York (205HI→205HI), Canada (222HI→222HI), Toronto (258HI→252HI), Iran (257HI→263HI), Israel (608HI→608HI), South Africa (787HI→744HI), Singapore (29751HI→31652HI), Turkey (1→0), Ontario (12→11), Mexico (13→12), Malaysia (86→87), Japan (140→143), Indonesia (144→146), South Korea (175→175), Thailand (1362→1328), Australia (5986→5904), China (28947→28947)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Denmark, Toronto

Worse: Germany

The same: Turkey, Ontario, Mexico

Better: Sweden, Alabama, California, Louisiana, New York, Canada, Iran, Malaysia, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (96, no new data, 6.4%), Austria (318, no new data, 64.6%), Romania (396, no new data, 81.5%), Poland (505, no new data, 80.9%), Norway (566, no new data, 93.0%), India (888, no new data, 40.3%), Brazil (931, no new data, 73.3%), France (963, no new data, 68.7%), Italy (2218, no new data, 95.5%), Spain (3422, no new data, 90.8%), Malta (3429, no new data, 94.4%), U.K. (29341, no new data, 94.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (12, 0.0%); Suriname (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Chad (14, 15.5%); Comoros (14, 17.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 39.8%); Gabon (14, 3.4%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 81.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Dominica (25, 46.4%); Cameroon (47, 23.1%); Seychelles (51, 18.0%); Benin (87, 12.6%); Vietnam (94, 21.6%); Kenya (100, 62.0%); Mauritius (119, 13.0%); Equatorial Guinea (127, 2.0%); Saint Lucia (156, 81.0%); Guinea (172, 49.8%); Rwanda (181, 15.0%); Kuwait (191, 24.5%); Peru (202, 16.1%); Guyana (219, 65.9%); Maldives (223, 32.3%); Liechtenstein (241, 49.7%); Togo (242, 52.2%); Bolivia (249, 28.7%); Saudi Arabia (316, 6.6%); Botswana (327, 71.8%); Mongolia (331, 90.0%); Nepal (344, 33.1%); Jordan (360, 61.4%); Slovakia (442, 82.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (458, 34.4%); Andorra (470, 57.1%); Armenia (480, 54.7%); Portugal (532, 83.0%); Mozambique (609, 50.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (626, 3.7%); Haiti (641, 33.5%); Bahamas (736, 60.9%); Czechia (773, 31.7%); Morocco (789, 85.7%); Nigeria (874, 18.0%); Kyrgyzstan (1246, 53.6%); Angola (1320, 84.6%); Ethiopia (1367, 96.1%); Venezuela (1730, 33.4%); Tajikistan (2802, 26.6%); Bangladesh (2805, 73.6%); Greece (3397, 95.0%); Montenegro (4052, 94.2%); Belgium (5007, 61.9%); Russia (5298, 98.7%); Ireland (6572, 82.4%); Kosovo (7469, 98.7%); Uzbekistan (7961, 22.4%); Oman (8409, 30.2%); Central African Republic (11887, 62.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (21125, 96.4%); Costa Rica (29729, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): WY (204, 54.0%); IA (275, 72.9%); MP (609, 81.8%); ND (703, 42.3%); TN (822, 81.3%); WI (1234, 89.7%); NM (1487, 95.7%); UT (3304, 98.2%); NH (4271, 90.5%); RI (24811, 93.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (3, 0.0%); NU (25, 33.4%); YT (36, 60.0%); NL (55, 14.1%); NS (132, 25.1%); NB (277, 92.5%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Belarus (1774, 2-day record streak), Eritrea (38), Georgia (5068), Niger (86), Panama (2388), US (227885, 2-day record streak), Uruguay (276, 2-day record streak).

As we are seeing daily reports of new records being set at every level of our country, I thought it would be useful to take a look at problems with the consistency of the data that is being discussed. Today's chart shows several scaled data series for COVID-19 in Toronto, to see how their relations have changed over time. You can interact with it here:

A year ago, when all of the numbers were zero, we could have reasonable confidence that they were all accurate. When we started to see a few cases early this year, there was some uncertainty about how many undetected cases there were, but we knew so little about the disease that it was easy to think that things were better or at least different here than elsewhere, and we couldn't tell for sure for example that our death rate and case rate couldn't both be correct.

We know a lot more about the progression of the disease now though, and have a better sense as to what proportion of patients will end up in hospital, and what proportion will end up dying. That sense is not precise, but it seems accurate at least to a factor of two or so, and it's good enough to tell us that when we see one death for every 60 known cases, there are a lot of unknown cases.

The greatest uncertainty now concerns the incidence of COVID-19 among the untested population. The recent school testing at Thorncliffe Park suggests that that may be ten times higher than the published figures about known cases. In Ontario, in the month of September, we saw increased testing rates that closely parallelled a rise in detected cases. Then in October, testing levelled off but cases kept climbing; in November, testing rates started climbing again and cases kept pace. The way I look at this, we lost control of the epidemic in late August, and were able to track how badly we were doing in September; in October, we ran out of testing capacity but cases were rising fast enough that we could tell cases were rising steeply but not how steeply; in November, with more testing, we've gone back to being able to track our rate of increase in cases but don't have a good indication of how many untested cases there are.

Stay safe.

2020-12-05

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (143HI→143HI), Alabama (167HI→158HI), California (188HI→170HI), U.S. (175HI→173HI), Germany (204HI→205HI), New York (205HI→205HI), Denmark (189HI→221HI), Canada (221HI→222HI), Iran (251HI→257HI), Toronto (253HI→258HI), Israel (705HI→608HI), South Africa (839HI→787HI), Singapore (34590HI→29751HI), Turkey (2→1), Ontario (13→12), Mexico (14→13), Malaysia (84→86), Japan (138→140), Indonesia (146→144), South Korea (183→175), Thailand (1566→1362), Australia (5666→5986), China (34793→28947)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, California, South Korea

Worse: U.S., Indonesia

The same: Turkey, Ontario, Mexico

Better: Sweden, Germany, New York, Canada, Iran, Toronto, Malaysia, Japan

Much better: Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (116→96, 6.4%), Austria (328→318, 64.6%), Romania (423→396, 81.5%), Poland (458→505, 80.9%), Norway (812→566, 93.0%), India (762→888, 40.3%), Brazil (726→931, 73.3%), France (1042→963, 68.7%), Louisiana (new→1623, 81.7%), Italy (2192→2218, 95.5%), Spain (2008→3422, 90.8%), Malta (2431→3429, 94.4%), U.K. (5550→29341, 94.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (12, 0.0%); Suriname (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Chad (14, 15.5%); Comoros (14, 17.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 39.8%); Gabon (14, 3.4%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 81.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Dominica (25, 46.4%); Cameroon (47, 23.1%); Seychelles (51, 18.0%); Benin (87, 12.6%); Vietnam (94, 21.6%); Kenya (100, 62.0%); Mauritius (119, 13.0%); Equatorial Guinea (127, 2.0%); Saint Lucia (156, 81.0%); Guinea (172, 49.8%); Rwanda (181, 15.0%); Kuwait (191, 24.5%); Peru (202, 16.1%); Guyana (219, 65.9%); Maldives (223, 32.3%); Liechtenstein (241, 49.7%); Togo (242, 52.2%); Bolivia (249, 28.7%); Saudi Arabia (316, 6.6%); Botswana (327, 71.8%); Mongolia (331, 90.0%); Nepal (344, 33.1%); Jordan (360, 61.4%); Slovakia (442, 82.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (458, 34.4%); Andorra (470, 57.1%); Armenia (480, 54.7%); Portugal (532, 83.0%); Mozambique (609, 50.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (626, 3.7%); Haiti (641, 33.5%); Bahamas (736, 60.9%); Czechia (773, 31.7%); Morocco (789, 85.7%); Nigeria (874, 18.0%); Kyrgyzstan (1246, 53.6%); Angola (1320, 84.6%); Ethiopia (1367, 96.1%); Venezuela (1730, 33.4%); Tajikistan (2802, 26.6%); Bangladesh (2805, 73.6%); Greece (3397, 95.0%); Montenegro (4052, 94.2%); Belgium (5007, 61.9%); Russia (5298, 98.7%); Ireland (6572, 82.4%); Kosovo (7469, 98.7%); Uzbekistan (7961, 22.4%); Oman (8409, 30.2%); Central African Republic (11887, 62.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (21125, 96.4%); Costa Rica (29729, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): MP (14, 83.9%); WY (181, 51.9%); GU (209, 38.0%); PR (227, 67.2%); IA (235, 73.7%); ND (296, 42.7%); NH (365, 88.3%); TN (402, 80.8%); NM (1493, 97.0%); WI (1575, 92.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (3, 0.0%); NU (25, 33.4%); YT (36, 60.0%); NL (55, 14.1%); NS (132, 25.1%); NB (277, 92.5%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Belarus (1774, 2-day record streak), Eritrea (38), Georgia (5068), Niger (86), Panama (2388), US (227885, 2-day record streak), Uruguay (276, 2-day record streak).

Daily records were set in Ontario in Porcupine (4), Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington (13), Windsor-Essex (86), Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (48), and the whole province (1,859).

Today's chart is a weekly update of active school and general cases in Toronto and Ontario. It shows Toronto school cases jumping above the general rate, thanks to the results of the testing at Thorncliffe Park Public School. It will be interesting to see how this chart continues to evolve, if the new TDSB rules lead to more kids getting tested.

Of the regions that I follow most closely, Turkey is the most alarming one right now, and they're a good cautionary tale for places like Canada. Four months ago, Turkey had 11,000 active cases and were not taking the pandemic too seriously. Then month-by-month it rose to 22,000, 31,000, 44,300, and because the rise was gradual, it was like the fable of the frog and the boiling water. At a certain point though, the pandemic breaks loose. People blame large social gatherings, or low-income workplaces and housing, rather than the complacent initial assumption that 11,000 was not a lot of cases. In the last month, their active case count has gone weekly from 49,000 to 58,000 to 169,000; and in the last week it has risen daily by 10% and now stands at 328,000.

This could easily happen to us here in Canada, and there is some reason to think that it might be happening. Official figures suggest we have 68,000 active cases now, compared to 32,000 a month ago. We don't actually know how many people are infected, other than that it's somewhere between say 4 and 10 times more than are being identified. And yet people are out Christmas shopping instead of isolating. People send their kids to school, or risk their lives to earn a living. When enough people do this, eventually everyone will get sick, tens of thousands of people will die, the healthcare system will fail, and the economy will collapse.

Stay safe.

2020-12-04

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (132HI→143HI), Alabama (193HI→167HI), U.S. (187HI→175HI), California (203HI→188HI), Denmark (206HI→189HI), Germany (202HI→204HI), Louisiana (181HI→204HI), New York (205HI→205HI), Canada (223HI→221HI), Iran (246HI→251HI), Toronto (260HI→253HI), Israel (689HI→705HI), South Africa (890HI→839HI), Singapore (33803HI→34590HI), Turkey (3→2), Ontario (14→13), Mexico (16→14), Japan (138→138), Indonesia (145→146), South Korea (186→183), Thailand (1480→1566), Australia (5901→5666), China (34793→34793)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, U.S., California, Denmark, Toronto

Worse: Canada, Mexico, South Korea

The same: Turkey, Ontario

Better: Sweden, Germany, New York, Iran, Japan, Indonesia

Much better: Louisiana

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (new→116, 6.6%), Austria (275→328, 67.1%), Romania (307→423, 82.6%), Poland (464→458, 82.5%), Malaysia (538→655, 75.3%), Brazil (859→726, 71.5%), India (771→762, 40.9%), Norway (1749→812, 93.0%), France (885→1042, 69.2%), Spain (2342→2008, 91.3%), Italy (2098→2192, 96.1%), Malta (new→2431, 93.6%), U.K. (3236→5550, 94.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): MS Zaandam, Marshall Islands, Vanuatu (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Comoros (14, 17.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 39.8%); Dominica (14, 78.6%); Grenada (14, 91.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); Suriname (14, 0.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mauritius (45, 13.0%); Liechtenstein (68, 50.3%); Laos (91, 81.2%); Saint Lucia (102, 81.0%); Monaco (107, 38.0%); Equatorial Guinea (127, 2.0%); Kuwait (146, 25.4%); Guyana (198, 66.2%); Maldives (207, 32.6%); Vietnam (223, 23.8%); Barbados (247, 32.7%); Namibia (254, 15.3%); Bolivia (265, 29.3%); Switzerland (283, 55.9%); Benin (288, 12.6%); Andorra (290, 58.1%); Cabo Verde (291, 33.1%); Nigeria (296, 17.1%); Guinea (297, 52.6%); Haiti (299, 33.3%); Saudi Arabia (304, 6.8%); Kyrgyzstan (309, 50.3%); Nepal (325, 33.8%); Djibouti (327, 1.5%); Jordan (338, 62.3%); Slovakia (368, 83.6%); Rwanda (383, 17.1%); Gabon (384, 3.4%); Venezuela (413, 33.7%); Togo (417, 54.9%); Trinidad and Tobago (432, 35.0%); Armenia (463, 56.2%); Czechia (463, 32.2%); Mongolia (514, 91.4%); Portugal (529, 83.1%); Angola (704, 84.0%); Peru (821, 18.9%); Chile (855, 11.4%); Tunisia (895, 69.9%); Morocco (955, 87.5%); Luxembourg (1149, 84.9%); Mozambique (1163, 51.1%); Montenegro (1187, 94.4%); El Salvador (1241, 21.9%); Bahamas (1339, 62.0%); Qatar (1653, 8.1%); Tajikistan (2001, 26.5%); Greece (2245, 95.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2446, 97.2%); Guatemala (2982, 39.8%); Belgium (3557, 61.9%); Oman (3599, 30.2%); Bangladesh (3632, 73.9%); Kosovo (4614, 98.7%); Ireland (4745, 82.4%); Lebanon (8308, 99.4%); Malawi (10279, 18.6%); Uzbekistan (23476, 22.1%); Slovenia (39162, 86.6%); Ethiopia (59990, 98.3%); Central African Republic (154768, 63.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): ND (186, 45.1%); WY (186, 59.1%); GU (189, 37.1%); PR (212, 67.2%); IA (229, 78.1%); TN (346, 82.9%); NH (425, 91.7%); OK (480, 87.0%); SD (545, 82.3%); MP (629, 83.9%); WI (1826, 92.3%); NM (2440, 96.6%); MN (3277, 82.1%); MO (7310, 98.4%); NE (25645, 98.5%); OH (40667, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (4, 0.0%); YT (33, 55.0%); NU (50, 49.1%); NL (75, 15.1%); NS (107, 25.5%); NB (311, 92.5%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Belarus (1701), Belize (1382), Croatia (4534), Cyprus (348), Indonesia (8369), Latvia (930), Liberia (68), Lithuania (4551), Moldova (1727, 2-day record streak), Russia (27829), US (217664), Uruguay (230), West Bank and Gaza (2516).

I was both heartened and appalled by the situation in Toronto today. The bad news was that streets and stores were jammed today with people Christmas shopping. I bought our weekly dairy needs from Scheffler's Deli, and several days' worth of groceries from Family Foods, both at the St. Lawrence Market. There were twice as many people as usual, and it felt like many were just wandering around breathing and staring after buying a Christmas tree outside. At least everyone was wearing masks, and doing so properly, and the market is a vast indoor space with plenty of air circulation.

The good news was that the issue I talked about earlier this week at Thorncliffe Park Public School has led to a major update of the Toronto District School Board's COVID-19 policy. Continuing testing at the school, not surprisingly continued to turn up more positive cases. After three brave Thorncliffe Park teachers realized yesterday that Ontario labour law did not require them to risk their lives in the workplace and so formally gave notice that they were walking off the job, the principal reconsidered his position and closed the entire school. Then overnight, the school board saw the writing on the wall. Although Thorncliffe Park is one of the hardest neighbourhoods in the city, there are a lot of other neighbourhoods like it, whose parents, children and teachers would be asking why their schools remained open.

The previous policy, based on provincial guidance, was that students with one symptom of COVID-19 were treated as equivalent to healthy individuals; those with two symptoms were required to stay home for two weeks. The new policy, which would have saved us a lot of new cases if we had had it in place in September, was that if one student has one symptom, then they stay home for 10 days or until they have a negative test; the rest of their family is also not permitted to go to school for the duration.

The other reason why it would have been better to have this policy in place before school started was so that parents could make informed, timely decisions about childcare and in-person vs. virtual schooling. As things stand, every parent in the city who was sending a child to school with a runny nose has just one weekend to figure out how to survive not being able to send any kids to school until runny-nose season ends.

Today's chart shows Toronto neighbourhoods is an edited version of one requested by Bruce Macintosh and Luisa Perrella, showing new non-outbreak cases in the most recent week of data; this version is coloured using Jenks natural breaks. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-12-03

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (133HI→132HI), Louisiana (213HI→181HI), U.S. (187HI→187HI), Alabama (202HI→193HI), California (209HI→203HI), New York (226HI→205HI), Denmark (202HI→206HI), Canada (228HI→223HI), Iran (244HI→246HI), Malta (237HI→257HI), Toronto (263HI→260HI), Israel (737HI→689HI), South Africa (890HI→890HI), Turkey (4→3), Ontario (15→14), Japan (142→138), Indonesia (158→145), South Korea (187→186), Thailand (1432→1480), New Zealand (2154→1561), Australia (6156→5901), China (40212→34793)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Louisiana, Alabama, California, New York, Canada, Japan, Indonesia

Worse: Toronto

The same: Sweden, Turkey, Ontario, South Korea

Better: U.S., Denmark, Iran, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (14→14, 0.4%), Austria (272→275, 67.9%), Romania (425→307, 84.5%), Poland (537→464, 84.7%), Malaysia (534→538, 74.5%), India (918→771, 41.6%), Brazil (new→859, 69.3%), France (709→885, 69.6%), Norway (2311→1749, 93.7%), Italy (2572→2098, 96.6%), Spain (2838→2342, 91.6%), Germany (1793→2402, 97.8%), U.K. (2075→3236, 94.9%), Mexico (new→3404, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 39.8%); Dominica (14, 78.6%); Eritrea (14, 57.2%); Grenada (14, 91.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 36.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 11.9%); Marshall Islands (14, 33.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); Suriname (14, 0.3%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Vanuatu (14, 25.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mauritius (45, 13.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (51, 23.8%); Liechtenstein (68, 50.3%); Laos (91, 81.2%); Monaco (95, 36.7%); Cabo Verde (106, 29.7%); Zambia (140, 11.5%); Kuwait (147, 26.8%); Djibouti (152, 1.4%); Saint Lucia (195, 87.1%); Namibia (205, 14.3%); Switzerland (210, 52.8%); Guyana (231, 67.0%); Ecuador (249, 36.9%); Bolivia (268, 29.6%); Nigeria (275, 17.7%); Togo (279, 54.7%); Philippines (283, 32.4%); Peru (291, 18.2%); Saudi Arabia (297, 7.0%); Jordan (298, 63.4%); Haiti (315, 33.5%); Maldives (333, 36.9%); Chile (382, 10.8%); Gabon (384, 3.4%); Guinea (418, 54.2%); Slovakia (446, 85.0%); Nepal (469, 35.4%); Andorra (512, 59.4%); Vietnam (547, 24.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (555, 34.9%); Czechia (577, 33.4%); Montenegro (577, 93.3%); Armenia (580, 56.6%); Guatemala (816, 39.6%); Bahamas (825, 61.7%); Portugal (862, 85.3%); Bahrain (899, 21.0%); Mozambique (950, 50.1%); Angola (1019, 86.1%); Qatar (1021, 8.1%); Croatia (1028, 95.9%); Kyrgyzstan (1075, 54.2%); Oman (1200, 30.5%); El Salvador (1265, 22.0%); Morocco (1446, 88.3%); Tajikistan (1566, 26.6%); Venezuela (1793, 33.8%); North Macedonia (2105, 98.0%); Belgium (2893, 62.2%); Bangladesh (3012, 74.2%); Kosovo (3032, 98.7%); Tunisia (3351, 69.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3404, 97.1%); Malawi (3415, 18.5%); Greece (4255, 96.7%); Luxembourg (5427, 87.2%); Lebanon (8042, 98.6%); Ireland (36298, 82.9%); Georgia (144505, 96.8%); Iraq (301049, 92.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): GU (75, 37.6%); WY (118, 56.6%); ND (165, 46.4%); NH (275, 84.4%); IA (308, 82.3%); OK (343, 82.9%); NC (386, 88.7%); MN (436, 77.9%); SD (460, 79.9%); MT (693, 72.4%); PR (1252, 71.5%); WI (1609, 92.9%); MP (1872, 83.9%); KS (4013, 98.8%); MO (16726, 97.9%); NE (18690, 98.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (5, 0.0%); PE (14, 20.0%); NU (41, 52.4%); NL (254, 15.6%); NS (324, 27.3%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Estonia (522), Moldova (1717), Panama (2028), Sri Lanka (878).

New daily records were set in Ontario in Hastings Prince Edward (7), Peel (592), Middlesex-London (127, which is partly due to a technical error that combined three days, but the average of those three days would still be a record), and the South West (219).

Today's chart shows Toronto official new cases by age range. In the past week, there has been a significant decrease in the per capita rate of transmission to Torontonians aged 70+, presumably as long-term care facilities take appropriate measures during our lockdown. In the meantime, youths under 20 are staying steady (down 1.6%), and all the age categories in the middle continue to worsen, the worst being people like me in their 50s, who are up 23% over last week.

Stay safe.

2020-12-02

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (133HI→133HI), U.S. (188HI→187HI), Alabama (219HI→202HI), Denmark (198HI→202HI), California (212HI→209HI), Louisiana (249HI→213HI), New York (226HI→226HI), Canada (0→228HI), Malta (238HI→237HI), Iran (241HI→244HI), Toronto (259HI→263HI), Brazil (420HI→419HI), Israel (778HI→737HI), South Africa (916HI→890HI), Turkey (4→4), Ontario (16→15), Mexico (17→16), Japan (144→142), Indonesia (158→158), South Korea (189→187), Thailand (1661→1432), New Zealand (1612→2154), Australia (6636→6156), China (39687→40212)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Louisiana, Canada

Worse: California, Japan, South Korea

The same: U.S., Malta, Ontario, Mexico

Better: Sweden, Denmark, New York, Iran, Toronto, Turkey, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (138→14, 0.4%), Austria (310→272, 70.9%), Romania (1300→425, 89.1%), Malaysia (567→534, 73.1%), Poland (650→537, 87.4%), France (1420→709, 69.5%), India (1222→918, 42.1%), Germany (1306→1793, 97.0%), U.K. (1661→2075, 94.7%), Norway (new→2311, 94.5%), Italy (3079→2572, 97.3%), Spain (2124→2838, 92.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (81): Timor-Leste (eradicated); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 39.8%); Grenada (14, 91.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liberia (14, 36.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 11.9%); Marshall Islands (14, 33.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); Somalia (14, 79.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (14, 35.7%); Vanuatu (14, 25.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Benin (23, 16.1%); Suriname (27, 0.5%); Gambia (40, 0.7%); Mauritius (41, 12.6%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (51, 23.8%); Zambia (64, 11.1%); Djibouti (84, 1.3%); Monaco (89, 36.7%); Laos (91, 81.2%); Cabo Verde (114, 30.2%); Liechtenstein (127, 52.6%); Rwanda (140, 16.7%); Kuwait (152, 28.3%); Eritrea (170, 57.2%); Czechia (191, 34.4%); Vietnam (215, 24.6%); Nepal (221, 32.8%); Ecuador (248, 33.2%); Switzerland (251, 54.7%); Saudi Arabia (264, 7.2%); Gabon (270, 3.4%); Saint Lucia (271, 87.8%); Togo (275, 56.3%); Philippines (279, 31.0%); Maldives (319, 37.3%); Jordan (421, 65.6%); Qatar (466, 8.0%); Andorra (469, 59.1%); Guyana (483, 72.9%); Bolivia (494, 32.1%); Portugal (527, 84.4%); Bahrain (575, 20.6%); Armenia (614, 57.1%); Slovakia (622, 87.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (781, 3.6%); Guatemala (785, 39.3%); Haiti (790, 35.2%); Croatia (803, 90.1%); Bahamas (825, 61.7%); Luxembourg (878, 84.0%); Nigeria (883, 19.5%); Angola (919, 86.3%); Oman (930, 30.2%); Tajikistan (1089, 26.6%); Morocco (1119, 87.8%); Chile (1229, 11.3%); Malawi (1266, 18.2%); Lebanon (1287, 94.8%); El Salvador (1364, 22.1%); Montenegro (1503, 95.8%); Kyrgyzstan (1808, 55.3%); Argentina (1931, 74.8%); Venezuela (1993, 34.0%); Belgium (2703, 62.5%); Iraq (3163, 91.7%); Bangladesh (3196, 74.6%); Greece (3290, 97.1%); North Macedonia (3549, 97.4%); Namibia (3841, 15.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (5720, 97.1%); Sierra Leone (6937, 97.7%); Slovenia (9423, 86.1%); Central African Republic (9734, 63.3%); Ireland (9966, 83.0%); Kosovo (14526, 98.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): VI (49, 14.6%); GU (82, 37.8%); ND (109, 44.5%); WY (265, 65.0%); NC (282, 79.8%); SD (292, 76.7%); MN (331, 73.5%); IA (482, 86.3%); OK (525, 87.5%); PR (1024, 73.7%); NH (1219, 91.2%); AR (1230, 92.3%); WI (1446, 93.3%); MP (1872, 83.9%); KS (4013, 98.8%); MS (4162, 92.1%); NE (4553, 97.8%); MO (8357, 97.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (5, 0.0%); PE (14, 20.0%); NU (41, 52.4%); NL (254, 15.6%); NS (324, 27.3%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Azerbaijan (4426), Cyprus (318), Serbia (7999), Sweden (17629), Uganda (576), West Bank and Gaza (2357, 2-day record streak).

Toronto set a record yesterday for new daily cases with 727, and the Central East region set a record today with 872. Ontario Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams said that he was "seeing evidence of plateauing" in the province. While it is true that the daily number of cases in the province has been stuck in the 1700s for four days now, the number of active cases continue to grow, and there is strong evidence to suggest that the actual number of cases in the province is many times the official count and still growing steadily. So yes, there may be some evidence of plateauing, but it's not clear or convincing.

There were two new cases in our neighbourhood this week, both male, neither hospitalised or with known transmission route, in their 30s and 70s. Until October 2nd, we knew where each case in our neighbourhood came from, and there was some level of confidence that most of the cases were being detected. Of the 17 cases since then, one was healthcare-acquired, another through close contact, and we will likely never know where the others came from or how many more there are out there.

The median Toronto neighbourhood reported 12 new cases this week. Two (Runnymede-Bloor West Village and Wychwood) reported none; five (Malvern, Mount Olive-Silverstone-Jamestown, Rouge, West Humber-Clairville, and Woburn) reported more than 100.

Today's chart shows how each neighbourhood is doing; you can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-12-01

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (127HI→133HI), U.S. (185HI→188HI), Denmark (198HI→198HI), California (204HI→212HI), Alabama (236HI→219HI), New York (237HI→226HI), Iran (238HI→241HI), Louisiana (293HI→249HI), Toronto (273HI→259HI), Brazil (452HI→420HI), Israel (796HI→778HI), Canada (0→0), Turkey (7→4), Ontario (18→16), Mexico (17→17), Norway (30→33), Indonesia (161→158), South Korea (189→189), New Zealand (1735→1612), Thailand (1830→1661), Australia (6154→6636), China (39687→39687)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, New York, Louisiana, Toronto, Turkey

Worse: Ontario, Indonesia

Better: Sweden, U.S., Denmark, California, Iran, Canada, Mexico, South Korea

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (114→138, 0.4%), Austria (326→310, 74.7%), Japan (new→365, 79.1%), South Africa (724→485, 21.4%), Malaysia (329→567, 73.7%), Poland (738→650, 90.0%), India (4571→1222, 42.8%), Romania (1265→1300, 92.1%), Germany (2910→1306, 95.7%), France (1121→1420, 72.8%), Malta (9825→1585, 95.3%), U.K. (1402→1661, 94.9%), Spain (3973→2124, 92.3%), Italy (4826→3079, 98.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Timor-Leste (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Comoros (14, 17.3%); Grenada (14, 91.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 11.9%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Nicaragua (14, 95.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 28.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); Somalia (14, 79.8%); Suriname (14, 0.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 25.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Benin (23, 16.1%); Cabo Verde (59, 28.7%); Laos (63, 81.2%); Monaco (63, 33.3%); Zambia (72, 13.1%); Mauritius (74, 15.0%); Rwanda (121, 17.3%); Djibouti (123, 1.4%); Kuwait (156, 29.6%); Eritrea (170, 57.2%); Gabon (192, 3.4%); Togo (199, 58.2%); Switzerland (208, 52.1%); Liechtenstein (226, 54.6%); Saudi Arabia (272, 7.4%); Philippines (273, 29.6%); Ecuador (286, 30.2%); Maldives (328, 37.0%); Czechia (375, 33.6%); Luxembourg (375, 80.4%); Haiti (535, 35.2%); Chad (607, 15.5%); Qatar (700, 8.1%); Lebanon (741, 91.7%); Moldova (828, 52.5%); Bolivia (864, 33.7%); Armenia (883, 59.8%); Montenegro (883, 95.2%); Guatemala (905, 38.8%); Angola (913, 87.0%); Jordan (924, 69.9%); Nigeria (936, 18.7%); Oman (1011, 30.3%); Argentina (1049, 73.8%); Bahamas (1178, 63.6%); Tajikistan (1189, 26.9%); Lesotho (1464, 84.9%); Greece (1642, 96.3%); Venezuela (1730, 34.1%); Kyrgyzstan (1808, 55.3%); Andorra (1820, 60.8%); Slovakia (2024, 90.7%); Bahrain (2157, 21.1%); Guyana (2159, 75.3%); Portugal (2400, 90.7%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2681, 96.6%); Belgium (2719, 62.5%); Saint Lucia (2798, 93.0%); Croatia (3437, 91.0%); Ireland (3754, 83.0%); Bangladesh (4219, 74.9%); Central African Republic (4315, 63.0%); Iraq (4889, 91.2%); Sierra Leone (6953, 97.9%); Burma (8018, 93.7%); Morocco (35596, 90.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): VI (25, 11.5%); ND (101, 48.4%); WY (146, 63.8%); GU (152, 43.8%); NC (242, 73.2%); MN (261, 76.6%); SD (272, 72.8%); OK (540, 89.6%); IA (622, 89.7%); MS (831, 82.9%); AR (843, 90.7%); UT (1527, 96.9%); NE (1836, 97.5%); MP (1872, 83.9%); MO (2339, 97.9%); KS (3103, 98.5%); WI (3729, 95.0%); HI (11434, 99.7%); IL (24272, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): NT (7, 0.0%); NU (65, 70.7%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Canada (7895), West Bank and Gaza (2062).

Canada reached 1% confirmed cases among its population yesterday, and has stayed close to that mark today. In the global order in which we earned this badge of shame, we stand in 74th place, tied with Greece. Countries that are within a week of passing the 1% mark are Estonia, Latvia, Turkey, Morocco and Cyprus.

Today's chart is a weekly update of the CMAJ data on active cases in Canadian provinces.

In the past week, British Columbia's official active cases have risen 21% to 9,686; Alberta is up 25% to 16,454; Saskatchewan up 35% to 3,879; Manitoba up 8% to 8,321; Ontario up 10% to 17,468; Quebec up 10% to 12,138; New Brunswick up 35% to 120; Prince Edward Island up from 2 to 4; Nova Scotia up from 51 to 138; Newfoundland and Labrador up from 23 to 36; Northwest Territories down from 5 to 0; Yukon up from 14 to 17; Nunavut down from 132 to 108.

Ordered according to active cases per thousand population, they are: 6.03 MB, 3.72 AB, 3.29 SK, 2.77 NU, 1.88 BC, 1.42 QC, 1.19 ON, 0.40 YU, 0.15 NB, 0.14 NS, 0.07 NL, 0.02 PE, 0.00 NW. Bear in mind, if you're doing a personal risk assessment, that the actual active cases may be as much as 10 times larger than official figures, based on last week's school sampling.

Stay safe.

2020-11-30

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (127HI→127HI), U.S. (182HI→185HI), Denmark (206HI→198HI), California (216HI→204HI), Alabama (214HI→236HI), New York (240HI→237HI), Iran (238HI→238HI), Toronto (298HI→273HI), Louisiana (273HI→293HI), Brazil (460HI→452HI), Israel (834HI→796HI), Canada (2→0), Turkey (7→7), Mexico (18→17), Ontario (19→18), Norway (32→30), Japan (144→146), Indonesia (161→161), South Korea (199→189), New Zealand (1878→1735), Thailand (2225→1830), China (35171→39687)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Denmark, California, Toronto, Canada, South Korea

Worse: New York, Norway

The same: Mexico, Ontario

Better: Sweden, U.S., Iran, Louisiana, Turkey, Japan, Indonesia

Much better: Alabama

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (66→114, 0.4%), Austria (407→326, 77.3%), Malaysia (182→329, 80.0%), South Africa (new→724, 20.5%), Poland (1091→738, 92.9%), France (1116→1121, 73.1%), Romania (new→1265, 92.7%), U.K. (2057→1402, 95.5%), Germany (new→2910, 97.1%), Spain (1230→3973, 93.8%), India (new→4571, 43.9%), Italy (17367→4826, 98.6%), Australia (4450→4963, 14.9%), Malta (2997→9825, 94.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (63): Timor-Leste (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Bhutan (14, 22.4%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Grenada (14, 91.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 11.9%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Nicaragua (14, 95.8%); Papua New Guinea (14, 21.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 28.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 25.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Benin (19, 13.6%); Suriname (25, 0.3%); Zambia (55, 12.0%); Comoros (93, 17.3%); Moldova (98, 54.9%); Cabo Verde (115, 36.2%); Kuwait (179, 32.4%); Togo (179, 58.5%); Laos (211, 93.8%); Philippines (222, 27.5%); Czechia (271, 35.6%); Eritrea (277, 57.2%); Saudi Arabia (304, 7.7%); Ecuador (353, 28.5%); Maldives (410, 37.7%); Rwanda (447, 18.3%); Bahamas (569, 63.5%); Bolivia (642, 34.1%); Gabon (675, 3.6%); Vietnam (727, 26.3%); Qatar (774, 8.3%); Tajikistan (845, 26.9%); Bahrain (1160, 21.0%); Oman (1205, 30.5%); Armenia (1279, 61.7%); Argentina (1354, 74.9%); Greece (1846, 97.5%); Angola (2038, 88.5%); Montenegro (2096, 97.6%); Uzbekistan (2153, 22.1%); Switzerland (2203, 66.1%); Jordan (2206, 71.4%); Belgium (2385, 62.8%); Luxembourg (2446, 87.9%); Morocco (2731, 91.8%); Haiti (3059, 36.9%); Sierra Leone (3476, 97.7%); Iraq (3637, 90.7%); Central African Republic (3885, 63.0%); Bangladesh (4370, 74.9%); Ireland (4856, 83.1%); Jamaica (18567, 97.6%); Slovenia (31952, 86.7%); Costa Rica (111654, 98.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (15): GU (50, 43.4%); VI (103, 18.6%); ND (156, 56.4%); WY (203, 72.6%); NC (456, 68.7%); AR (484, 91.0%); MS (718, 78.6%); MN (753, 83.3%); WI (935, 94.8%); IA (1295, 95.7%); OK (1394, 95.4%); UT (1753, 96.8%); IL (2002, 97.4%); KS (6338, 98.5%); MO (6860, 99.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): NT (7, 0.0%); NU (65, 70.7%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Hungary (6819), Indonesia (6267).

Ontario records were set today in Thunder Bay (21), Durham (108), York (217), Toronto (622), and the North West region (24).

I was jolted awake by the news this morning, and am posting this section of my usual daily report in advance of tonight's statistical update, because of the gravity of the situation. It's not that Toronto set a new daily record - that's just because we started doing more of the kind of testing we should have been doing in September.

The results of last Thursday and Friday’s pilot project testing a voluntary sample of students and staff at Thorncliffe Park Public School (a Grade 1-5 elementary school) were announced today, and showed 19 positive cases out of 433 people tested, or a positivity rate of 4.4%. These 18 new asymptomatic student cases and one staff case were in addition to two previously symptomatic known cases. The school has a nominal student population of 1,400, but as of early September, only 800 had said that they intended to attend in person, and it is unclear how many actually do regularly attend now.

Toronto Public Health downplayed this in a misleading way, saying that 4% was far lower than the 16% positivity rate generally observed in that neighbourhood, and astonishingly recommended that the school stay open, while instructing 14 classes to stay home and isolate.

The mathematical issues are that 4.4% is not a low number, but more importantly you can’t compare random and self-selected samples. The 16% are people who have qualified to be tested because they have good reason to think that they are infected, say because they are symptomatic and have an exposure history. And while 4.4% might sound low if you think of it as 22 chances in 23 that a random neighbourhood resident might be healthy, in terms of epidemiology it only needs to be doubled four times to get to 70%. Back in October, when we had already run out of testing capacity in Toronto, Thorncliffe Park doubled weekly over four weeks, from 3 to 47 active cases. So 4.4% now means that pretty much everyone who can get sick or die in Thorncliffe Park is going to do so by the end of the year.

We can also try to make broader inferences about what this means for underreporting of COVID-19 in Toronto in general. First let's work out what exactly the official number of active cases is in Thorncliffe Park as a proportion of the population. Toronto reported 91 active cases as of last Monday, November 23rd, and 81 as of November 16th; so half a week after the 23rd when testing was taking place, we might expect that there were about 96 active cases. The census population of Thorncliffe Park in 2011 was 19,225, and in 2016 it was estimated at 21,105, so we might estimate it in 2020 at 22,744.

That gives us an estimated active case rate based on official case data of 96/22744 = 0.42%, which indicates that this value is being underestimated by a factor of 10.4. So where the city said that it knew of 4,535 active cases yesterday or 1/662 of the population, it looks like the actual number is likely over 47,000 or 1/64. 1/64 doubled weekly for four weeks will take us to 1/4 of the city by the end of the year.

One last disturbing aspect to the response is that it's hard to see how it conforms to the most recent (October 1st) provincial school guidance, which say that an outbreak should be declared if there are "two or more lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases [...] within 14 days [...] where at least one case could reasonably have acquired their infection in the school [...] Examples of reasonably having acquired infection in school include: [...] Known exposure in the school setting". With 18 students in 14 classrooms, the pigeonhole principle says that there must be at least four such cases of school-acquired infections. The guidance goes on to say that "Whole school dismissal should be considered if [...] many cohorts have been dismissed"; it's hard to see how 14 cohorts is not considered many, or that reasonable consideration of dismissal would not lead to its being put into effect.

Today's chart is a fortnightly update of the continents of the world, showing how Europe has plateaued and ceded the lead to North America.

Stay safe.

2020-11-29

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (127HI→127HI), Romania (162HI→164HI), U.S. (176HI→182HI), Germany (187HI→187HI), Denmark (206HI→206HI), Alabama (214HI→214HI), California (216HI→216HI), Iran (235HI→238HI), New York (260HI→240HI), Louisiana (204HI→273HI), Toronto (287HI→298HI), Brazil (510HI→460HI), Israel (869HI→834HI), South Africa (961HI→936HI), Canada (4→2), Turkey (10→7), Mexico (19→18), Ontario (20→19), India (83→84), Japan (143→144), Indonesia (169→161), South Korea (205→199), New Zealand (1451→1878), Thailand (2220→2225), China (38206→35171)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: New York, Canada, Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea

The same: Mexico, Ontario

Better: Sweden, Romania, U.S., Germany, Denmark, Alabama, California, Iran, Toronto, India, Japan

Much better: Louisiana

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (201→66, 0.4%), Malaysia (198→182, 80.2%), Austria (431→407, 80.3%), Poland (new→1091, 95.1%), France (1287→1116, 74.2%), Spain (2413→1230, 93.8%), U.K. (2107→2057, 96.6%), Malta (new→2997, 94.8%), Australia (4931→4450, 14.9%), Norway (new→7200, 98.9%), Italy (10648→17367, 99.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (61): Timor-Leste (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Bhutan (14, 27.1%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Gambia (14, 1.0%); Grenada (14, 91.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 11.9%); Malawi (14, 18.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Nicaragua (14, 95.8%); Oman (14, 31.5%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 28.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 45.5%); South Sudan (14, 7.8%); Suriname (14, 0.3%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 25.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Benin (22, 13.6%); Comoros (93, 17.3%); Zambia (95, 13.7%); Moldova (111, 57.1%); Rwanda (111, 17.1%); Togo (197, 60.2%); Kuwait (204, 34.3%); Laos (211, 93.8%); Eritrea (277, 57.2%); Mauritius (301, 19.0%); Ghana (314, 12.0%); Saudi Arabia (326, 8.0%); Czechia (348, 36.2%); Cabo Verde (418, 38.1%); Bahamas (576, 64.1%); Bolivia (598, 34.5%); Djibouti (667, 1.6%); Armenia (705, 61.0%); Qatar (761, 8.4%); Burma (811, 93.2%); Tajikistan (905, 27.1%); Kyrgyzstan (1237, 56.2%); Morocco (1495, 91.1%); Haiti (1537, 36.9%); Belgium (1751, 63.3%); Greece (2136, 97.7%); Venezuela (2477, 34.5%); Angola (2556, 89.3%); Vietnam (2824, 25.9%); Slovenia (3729, 85.8%); Ireland (4230, 83.0%); Argentina (4275, 75.8%); Central African Republic (5559, 63.2%); Uzbekistan (6490, 22.3%); Bangladesh (7340, 75.4%); Portugal (10568, 90.1%); Russia (11081, 99.5%); Sierra Leone (13893, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (15): MP (14, 84.7%); GU (96, 55.7%); VI (103, 18.6%); ND (173, 59.5%); WY (327, 78.0%); RI (841, 93.7%); OK (985, 94.1%); WI (1168, 95.8%); IA (1440, 95.7%); MN (1957, 86.4%); UT (2186, 97.3%); AR (5487, 95.2%); IL (5758, 98.2%); MO (6625, 98.2%); PR (12774, 73.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT (8, 0.0%); YT (14, 100.0%); NU (70, 73.3%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Azerbaijan (4212, 3-day record streak), Belarus (1691, 2-day record streak), Denmark (1638), Japan (2679), Mali (92), Moldova (1712), Sudan (540), Ukraine (16585, 3-day record streak), Uruguay (208, 2-day record streak).

Today's chart updates one from a month ago, showing per capita active case rates by country in Europe. You can interact with it here; the static image is over-cluttered:

We set a record for new hospital admissions in Toronto today, with 57. Our four-day average is 42. I'm surprised that hospitals are still scheduling elective surgery, but I guess that we still had such a big backlog from the first wave that we don't have much choice, and perhaps they have a clearer sense now of what precautions are effective. Just a reminder that in medical terms, "elective" is more or less equivalent to "scheduled", not "optional". When my mom almost bled out from her last stomach ulcer and went straight from emergency to surgery, the gastrectomy was emergency surgery; when my dad had a cataract or hernia operation, that was elective.

The continuing high rate of hospital admissions suggests that are actual number of active cases may still be increasing, and that an actual lockdown (closing schools and non-essential stores) might be necessary to stave off disaster. Official statistics continue to show a plateau of about 4500 active cases in Toronto, based on our limited testing strategy, and three consecutive days of new record levels of active cases in Toronto (over 13,000). Certainly stricter controls

Stay safe.

2020-11-28

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Sweden (127HI→127HI), Poland (124HI→134HI), Romania (155HI→162HI), U.S. (176HI→176HI), Germany (182HI→187HI), Denmark (196HI→206HI), California (207HI→216HI), Iran (234HI→235HI), Malta (235HI→248HI), New York (260HI→260HI), Toronto (295HI→287HI), Brazil (499HI→510HI), Israel (898HI→869HI), South Africa (972HI→961HI), Canada (5→4), Turkey (13→10), Mexico (22→19), Ontario (21→20), Norway (34→30), India (83→83), Japan (144→143), Indonesia (171→169), South Korea (211→205), New Zealand (1320→1451), Thailand (2055→2220), China (31896→38206)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Toronto, Turkey, Norway, South Korea

Worse: Mexico, Indonesia

The same: Canada, Ontario, Japan

Better: Sweden, Poland, Romania, U.S., Germany, Denmark, California, Iran, Malta, New York, India

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (325→198, 78.8%), Singapore (619→201, 0.4%), Austria (390→431, 84.1%), France (1122→1287, 75.3%), Alabama (1224→1569, 97.0%), U.K. (3086→2107, 97.3%), Spain (1478→2413, 93.8%), Louisiana (new→3556, 68.7%), Australia (11092→4931, 14.9%), Italy (new→10648, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Timor-Leste (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Bhutan (14, 27.1%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Grenada (14, 91.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 8.8%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Liechtenstein (14, 63.2%); Madagascar (14, 11.9%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 28.6%); South Sudan (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 25.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Djibouti (61, 1.6%); Suriname (79, 0.7%); Gambia (93, 1.0%); Moldova (94, 54.6%); Ghana (107, 12.2%); Cambodia (110, 10.2%); Chad (162, 15.8%); Iceland (199, 14.1%); Laos (211, 93.8%); Rwanda (227, 20.1%); Kuwait (236, 36.0%); Togo (242, 62.1%); Armenia (261, 61.3%); Mauritius (301, 19.0%); Saudi Arabia (308, 8.3%); Guyana (328, 77.6%); Zambia (347, 16.4%); Bahamas (442, 64.1%); Lesotho (516, 84.9%); Bolivia (578, 34.8%); Tajikistan (913, 27.3%); Haiti (1343, 36.6%); Peru (1386, 20.0%); Morocco (1485, 91.5%); Belgium (1687, 63.7%); Qatar (1830, 8.6%); Nepal (1912, 39.6%); Kyrgyzstan (2005, 56.5%); Jordan (2103, 73.3%); Portugal (2113, 92.4%); Belize (2667, 94.4%); Montenegro (3012, 98.7%); Venezuela (3021, 34.6%); Tunisia (3321, 69.5%); Oman (4631, 31.5%); Angola (5093, 89.8%); Bahrain (5438, 21.8%); Greece (6752, 98.5%); Mozambique (8161, 50.9%); Central African Republic (9769, 63.5%); Ireland (9931, 83.3%); Czechia (13106, 44.0%); Sierra Leone (13924, 98.1%); Burma (14164, 94.6%); Bangladesh (15546, 75.7%); Russia (27079, 99.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): MP (14, 84.7%); GU (94, 54.0%); WY (137, 75.2%); ND (210, 63.8%); TN (611, 81.4%); MN (734, 84.2%); ME (761, 95.1%); WI (1340, 96.4%); OK (1385, 95.2%); IA (1699, 95.1%); RI (2129, 95.9%); UT (3006, 98.5%); AR (4825, 95.3%); MT (5979, 72.5%); MO (30221, 97.8%); IL (3429785, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): NT (9, 0.0%); NU (276, 85.8%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Azerbaijan (3712, 2-day record streak), Belarus (1621), Croatia (4080, 3-day record streak), Finland (618, 2-day record streak), Georgia (4780), Indonesia (5828), Iran (14051, 4-day record streak), Kenya (1554), Lithuania (2338), Russia (27267, 2-day record streak), Serbia (7780, 4-day record streak), Turkey (44506, 2-day record streak), US (205557), Ukraine (16494, 2-day record streak), Uruguay (186), West Bank and Gaza (1936).

Today's chart of Toronto and Ontario school cases show Ontario general cases continuing to rise slowly, while Toronto cases level off. In Ontario, Hamilton and Waterloo both set new daily records, each breaking 100 cases for the first time. They are not under lockdown.

Toronto's official active cases have ranged between 4,300 and 4,800 since November 14. According to that chart I posted on November 19th, it's not uncommon for areas that lock down successfully to reduce their numbers by a factor of 7 in two weeks. That's clearly not happening yet, and it would be a little soon to expect it to. We shouldn't see those numbers come down first anyway, as they represent our testing capacity and strategy more than the 20,000 or so active cases we would have to have for our daily new hospital admissions to make sense. But eventually, maybe in a week or so, we should first see our hospital admissions drift downward. It will be hard to tell at first, because they are small-ish numbers that vary a lot from day to day. But once we see them coming down, we can estimate how quickly the active cases will come down when they come down, and whether or not we'll have made significant progress before Christmas.

Today, for what it's worth, we saw 38 new hospital admissions, which is a large number. Over three days, we've had a total of 110, which is of course a second-wave record.

We went to the St. Lawrence Market this morning to buy eggs from Sunrise Eggs, who drive all the way in from Wallenstein, north of Kitchener, with their amazing eggs each week; and a selection of local apples, which I think are the best reason to live in southern Ontario; and prepared Indian food from Nupur Gogia, who is the best reason to go to the farmer's market on Saturdays. When we got there, we found that the city had closed the market, due to concerns about compliance with provincial COVID-19 lockdown regulations; despite the fact that the market stayed open for the whole of the first wave, as an essential service, to wit, selling groceries. I found this difficult to understand, given that the market's main building (open five days a week, but retail, not direct-from-farm vendors) was open, as was the Metro supermarket a block away, and for that matter all the Walmarts and Costcos where you can buy your food without having to talk to the person who grew it for you. I learned that the farmer's market vendors had been told only on Thursday that they would not be able to make their weekly trip, unless they were one of a few vendors chosen to try to sell their wares in a small outdoor space, and that they were told that the situation might continue for the foreseeable future.

It brought to my mind a passage from Terry Pratchett's Night Watch, where due to civil unrest, the farmers around a city find themselves blockaded and unable to deliver the perishable produce the city needs. I never saw I would see a scene like that in Toronto.

Thankfully, I suppose, it turned out that it was only this particular market that was being singled out for this treatment, and I was able to get Sunrise Eggs at Fresh from the Farm on Donlands. And we have a reserve of Nupur's food in our freezer. I'm still looking for a good source now of local fruit, though.

Stay safe.

2020-11-27

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (117HI→124HI), Sweden (123HI→127HI), Italy (136HI→144HI), Romania (151HI→155HI), U.S. (166HI→176HI), Germany (178HI→182HI), Denmark (196HI→196HI), Louisiana (204HI→204HI), California (205HI→207HI), Iran (233HI→234HI), New York (260HI→260HI), Toronto (304HI→295HI), Brazil (499HI→499HI), Israel (898HI→898HI), South Africa (998HI→972HI), Canada (5→5), Turkey (18→13), Ontario (23→21), Mexico (22→22), Norway (30→34), India (82→83), Japan (142→144), Indonesia (175→171), South Korea (225→211), New Zealand (1494→1320), Thailand (2621→2055), China (31896→31896)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Toronto, Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea

Worse: Ontario

Better: Poland, Sweden, Italy, Romania, U.S., Germany, Denmark, Louisiana, California, Iran, New York, Canada, Mexico, India, Japan

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (new→324, 79.1%), Austria (425→390, 86.8%), Singapore (new→619, 0.4%), France (436→1122, 75.8%), Alabama (1129→1224, 94.4%), Spain (1671→1478, 94.7%), Malta (912→1622, 97.4%), U.K. (103438→3086, 98.2%), Australia (new→11092, 14.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Timor-Leste (1, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Grenada (14, 91.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 11.9%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Monaco (14, 44.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 28.6%); South Sudan (14, 7.2%); Suriname (14, 0.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 25.0%); Vietnam (14, 26.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (26, 31.7%); Solomon Islands (41, 45.5%); Cambodia (58, 10.2%); Djibouti (61, 1.6%); Gambia (67, 1.0%); Dominica (69, 50.0%); Guinea-Bissau (72, 8.8%); Ghana (75, 12.2%); Equatorial Guinea (85, 2.2%); Moldova (85, 55.1%); Iceland (110, 13.3%); Liechtenstein (129, 60.5%); Chad (165, 16.0%); San Marino (202, 72.9%); Kuwait (223, 37.4%); Nepal (241, 36.0%); Czechia (249, 38.1%); Armenia (273, 62.8%); Saudi Arabia (274, 8.5%); Guyana (287, 76.4%); Mauritius (301, 19.0%); Switzerland (311, 65.4%); Bhutan (321, 24.7%); Yemen (370, 7.1%); Togo (393, 66.7%); Peru (411, 17.7%); Venezuela (458, 34.8%); Morocco (551, 90.9%); Tunisia (590, 68.8%); Bolivia (626, 35.4%); Bahamas (738, 65.3%); Lesotho (799, 86.6%); Tajikistan (919, 27.5%); Qatar (1144, 8.5%); Bahrain (1156, 21.4%); Luxembourg (1171, 89.2%); Haiti (1182, 37.2%); Uzbekistan (1313, 22.3%); Jordan (1344, 73.5%); Chile (1355, 11.1%); Kyrgyzstan (1480, 56.5%); Belgium (1548, 63.7%); Andorra (1854, 61.8%); Argentina (2240, 77.3%); Portugal (2347, 92.6%); Oman (2833, 31.5%); Angola (5006, 90.6%); Libya (6398, 97.7%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (7465, 98.2%); Central African Republic (8229, 63.5%); Burma (22542, 94.2%); Finland (55959, 90.2%); Bangladesh (58691, 75.7%); Montenegro (74269, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): MP (14, 84.7%); GU (83, 53.4%); TN (171, 77.1%); VI (171, 22.4%); WY (222, 83.1%); ND (228, 71.0%); SD (724, 84.6%); ME (740, 95.1%); MT (1425, 71.5%); IA (1439, 96.8%); OK (1559, 97.2%); PR (2542, 75.8%); WI (2850, 96.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): NT (11, 0.0%); PE (14, 10.0%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Azerbaijan (3705), Croatia (4009, 2-day record streak), Estonia (414), Finland (496), Iran (13961, 3-day record streak), Latvia (898), Moldova (1691), Panama (1755, 2-day record streak), Russia (25195), Serbia (7606, 3-day record streak), Turkey (36008), Ukraine (15623).

Local Ontario new case records were set in Simcoe Muskoka (38, currently at orange level), Hamilton (82, red), Haldimand-Norfolk (11, orange), Halton (130, red), the Central East (820, ranging from lockdown to green), the Central West (360, orange and red), and the province overall (1855, up from 1589).

It's unfortunate that each Ontario health unit has to learn from its own mistakes rather than those of others.

Today's chart is a Google Sheets version of an old Excel chart showing how each American state is doing. I stopped using Excel for this, because recent versions of Excel (since 2016) don't let you plot line graphs with daily data along the horizontal axis marked off in months (see https://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/msoffice/forum/msoffice_excel-mso_win10-mso_2016/horizontal-date-axis-doesnt-have-a-standard-bounds/44ad9918-4946-4baf-bb23-9c79206b9b4c).

You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-11-26

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (109HI→117HI), Sweden (126HI→123HI), Italy (129HI→136HI), Romania (145HI→151HI), U.S. (167HI→166HI), Germany (174HI→178HI), Denmark (196HI→196HI), California (210HI→205HI), Iran (232HI→233HI), New York (271HI→260HI), Toronto (299HI→304HI), Brazil (501HI→499HI), Israel (1013HI→898HI), South Africa (1016HI→998HI), Singapore (27023HI→26542HI), Canada (6→5), Turkey (44→18), Mexico (25→22), Ontario (24→23), Norway (29→30), Malaysia (68→72), India (83→82), Japan (137→142), Indonesia (175→175), South Korea (245→225), New Zealand (1445→1494), Thailand (3070→2621), Australia (5508→5111), China (28381→31896)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, New York, Turkey, South Korea

Worse: Sweden, Mexico

The same: U.S., Canada, Ontario, India

Better: Poland, Italy, Romania, Germany, Denmark, Iran, Toronto, Norway, Malaysia, Japan, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Austria (485→425, 89.2%), France (592→436, 76.9%), Malta (833→912, 95.3%), Louisiana (new→1018, 58.1%), Alabama (726→1129, 93.3%), Spain (26516→1671, 95.2%), U.K. (217899→103438, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Timor-Leste (2, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 15.9%); Bhutan (14, 22.4%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Grenada (14, 91.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Ireland (14, 83.8%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 28.6%); South Sudan (14, 6.5%); Suriname (14, 0.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 25.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (26, 31.7%); Solomon Islands (41, 45.5%); Equatorial Guinea (46, 1.9%); Djibouti (49, 1.4%); Cambodia (58, 10.2%); Gambia (67, 1.0%); Dominica (69, 50.0%); Guinea-Bissau (72, 8.8%); Ghana (81, 12.2%); Senegal (85, 1.3%); Iceland (97, 14.1%); Nepal (114, 35.6%); Monaco (127, 40.7%); Liechtenstein (139, 60.5%); San Marino (141, 69.2%); Yemen (144, 6.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (190, 3.2%); Mauritius (222, 18.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (235, 12.0%); Saudi Arabia (235, 8.7%); Peru (238, 19.0%); Philippines (242, 33.4%); Kuwait (257, 39.9%); Togo (288, 68.1%); Armenia (309, 63.8%); Guyana (311, 73.9%); Madagascar (348, 11.9%); Ecuador (357, 31.8%); Chad (392, 15.0%); Switzerland (393, 67.6%); Bahrain (400, 21.6%); Lesotho (447, 84.1%); Czechia (455, 42.4%); Chile (474, 10.6%); Moldova (526, 82.3%); Tunisia (665, 68.5%); Andorra (787, 61.9%); Morocco (865, 93.3%); Bolivia (908, 36.3%); Jordan (959, 73.0%); Argentina (1016, 77.7%); Oman (1114, 31.5%); Kyrgyzstan (1143, 56.7%); Belgium (1187, 64.1%); Luxembourg (1198, 89.3%); Haiti (1225, 37.3%); Tajikistan (1237, 27.8%); Sri Lanka (1311, 94.0%); Qatar (1468, 8.6%); Bahamas (1651, 67.1%); Portugal (1749, 90.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2517, 97.3%); Finland (2658, 82.7%); Uzbekistan (2886, 22.5%); Nigeria (3159, 18.9%); Belize (3396, 93.6%); Angola (3416, 90.1%); Guatemala (3647, 39.3%); Iraq (5010, 91.9%); Panama (6947, 63.3%); Colombia (9600, 35.5%); Central African Republic (10429, 63.5%); Burma (13588, 92.6%); Slovakia (20388, 92.7%); Bangladesh (37960, 75.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (15): VI (171, 22.4%); GU (180, 79.0%); ND (199, 72.0%); TN (244, 80.1%); NC (304, 86.0%); MP (322, 84.7%); SD (419, 79.1%); WY (571, 88.0%); ME (730, 95.5%); MN (1061, 88.4%); MS (1142, 92.4%); MT (8394, 71.9%); PR (9632, 70.3%); RI (10037, 96.7%); AR (13677, 99.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): NT (11, 0.0%); PE (14, 10.0%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Croatia (3603), Germany (32687), Indonesia (5534), Iran (13843, 2-day record streak), Panama (1602), Serbia (7579, 2-day record streak), Uganda (484).

Across Ontario today, a new daily record was set in North Bay Parry Sound (5 new cases), Hastings Prince Edward (7), and Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge (7).

We set a bad record in Toronto today, with 47 new hospital admissions. The most COVID-19 patients we have ever had in hospital at one time is 431, and that was when we had cleared out our hospitals of non-emergency cases to make room for the pandemic, so having 47 new ones come in in one day is a sign of a system that is very close to breaking.

Today's chart is a weekly update on age ranges in Toronto cases. The range between per capita case rates in the most infected ages and least infected ages continues to narrow, dropping over the past week from 131 cases per million to 87. The safest age ranges continue to be 70-90 and 0-19, so we are protecting a lot of old and young people well. The ones at greatest risk are people in their 20s, presumably because we make them risk their lives doing dangerous jobs; followed by people in their 90s, presumably because it's too hard to protect them.

Stay safe.

2020-11-25

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (112HI→104HI), Italy (115HI→122HI), Sweden (129HI→127HI), Romania (138HI→142HI), U.S. (166HI→166HI), Louisiana (202HI→191HI), Denmark (186HI→196HI), Alabama (229HI→227HI), California (246HI→229HI), U.K. (213HI→229HI), Iran (229HI→231HI), New York (271HI→271HI), Toronto (294HI→299HI), Brazil (520HI→532HI), Israel (1030HI→1001HI), South Africa (1094HI→1043HI), Singapore (36243HI→28041HI), Canada (9→7), Ontario (25→25), Norway (27→32), Mexico (43→37), Turkey (53→47), Malaysia (78→70), Japan (139→136), Indonesia (183→182), South Korea (263→251), New Zealand (1541→1721), Thailand (3135→3208), Australia (4987→4608), China (32212→30028)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Poland, Louisiana, California, Canada, Mexico, Turkey, Malaysia, South Korea

Worse: Sweden, Alabama, Japan

The same: Indonesia

Better: Italy, Romania, U.S., Denmark, U.K., Iran, New York, Toronto, Ontario

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: France (461→505, 78.7%), Malta (new→738, 94.8%), Austria (2681→758, 93.8%), Spain (16206→2037, 96.0%), Germany (new→3298, 96.5%), India (new→4711, 43.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Timor-Leste (4, 0.0%); Fiji (11, 0.0%); Benin (14, 35.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Gabon (14, 3.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Mauritius (14, 20.1%); Mozambique (14, 51.1%); Nicaragua (14, 91.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 28.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 11.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Solomon Islands (19, 36.4%); Dominica (23, 50.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (26, 31.7%); Cambodia (46, 11.4%); Comoros (55, 16.3%); Equatorial Guinea (70, 1.9%); Yemen (70, 6.7%); Guinea-Bissau (72, 8.8%); Senegal (72, 1.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (79, 15.9%); Nepal (106, 40.4%); San Marino (107, 71.6%); Monaco (118, 41.3%); Iceland (147, 15.8%); Togo (171, 69.5%); Ghana (182, 16.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (187, 3.2%); Saudi Arabia (247, 9.3%); Bahrain (254, 21.9%); Philippines (262, 31.1%); Saint Lucia (305, 93.1%); Kuwait (314, 42.2%); Madagascar (348, 11.9%); Czechia (352, 44.2%); Burkina Faso (386, 19.0%); Luxembourg (393, 85.9%); Switzerland (395, 64.6%); Ecuador (432, 27.9%); Panama (575, 61.4%); Argentina (597, 76.7%); Andorra (624, 62.9%); Armenia (646, 72.3%); Liechtenstein (665, 63.2%); Moldova (673, 83.2%); Haiti (697, 37.5%); El Salvador (701, 22.2%); Guinea (777, 54.2%); Cabo Verde (793, 35.7%); Uzbekistan (889, 22.2%); Bahamas (1002, 69.0%); Bolivia (1084, 37.4%); Belgium (1160, 65.6%); Kyrgyzstan (1176, 57.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1304, 96.6%); Iraq (1310, 91.5%); Morocco (1459, 94.3%); Oman (1468, 31.8%); Nigeria (1504, 18.3%); Zambia (1524, 17.7%); Tunisia (1896, 70.4%); Vietnam (2798, 25.7%); Slovakia (2939, 91.5%); Qatar (3102, 8.7%); Jordan (3244, 74.9%); Tajikistan (3738, 28.2%); Libya (5010, 98.2%); Cuba (5223, 46.1%); Central African Republic (6040, 63.7%); Malawi (10126, 18.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): VI (129, 19.3%); MT (132, 73.0%); GU (175, 75.0%); ND (396, 76.6%); MN (413, 89.5%); SD (417, 86.0%); NC (511, 78.5%); MS (895, 80.7%); MP (950, 84.7%); TN (1485, 87.6%); AR (2397, 96.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 10.0%); QC (509, 54.8%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Canada (6795), Costa Rica (2877), Malaysia (1884), Russia (24891), Turkey (6713, 3-day record streak), West Bank and Gaza (1552).

There were a lot of problems with provincial COVID-19 data today here in Ontario.

First, the total number of reported new cases was 1,009, which would have been the lowest since November 5th; but the government says that it was actually low because they forgot to stop counting yesterday at the right time, and included some cases that should have gone into today's count. So the two-day total of 2,598 is correct, but we are not sure how many there were no which day.

Still, it's a lot less than our recent 7-day average of 2,829 every two days, so should we be happy? No, because we haven't been able to identify even a quarter of our cases since September, because the government let infections outstrip testing capacity. It turns out that although we have a nominal daily testing capacity of 50,000 tests, we only manage to proces a little over 27,000 tests today, for reasons that the government didn't publish. So we found fewer cases because we tested even fewer people than usual.

The government currently estimate a test positivity rate of 5.8% province-wide. This helps put an upper limit on how many cases there are of 5.8% of the population, or 870,000 people, if the sampling weren't biased toward people who were likely to be sick. The government's official estimate is about 13,000, and I'd guess that the actual figure is 50~60,000.

The province reports intensive care admissions at 159, which exceeds a previously reported threshold of 150 at which elective surgeries would have to be cancelled, but is still far from the 350-case level at which patients who need intensive care cannot receive it.

The province downplayed today's record number of new school cases (270), saying that it was in part due to catching up from a professional activity day in some school systems on Friday. The province continues to claim, its own data notwithstanding, that schools are not a significant venue for transmission of COVID-19. Its numbers show that kids are as likely to catch COVID-19 as anyone else who goes out in public.

One small piece of good news announced locally is that the province has finally begun deploying rapid test kits to long-term care facilities, and has announced that it will eventually start making them available to hospitals and essential businesses.

Alberta looks like it is likely to overtake Ontario to take the lead soon in official active cases, but other than an indication that both are in a difficult and avoidable situation, they aren't directly comparable. Alberta has 30% of the population of Ontario, and about the same proportion of testing capacity; its new hospitalisation rate is about 40% higher in absolute numbers than Ontario, which suggests that its cases are that much higher. So maybe instead of Alberta having a few thousand less than Ontario, Alberta has 70-80,000 to Ontario's 50-60,000.

See today's chart for a closer look at how each Canadian province and territory is doing.

Stay safe.

2020-11-24

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (112HI→104HI), Italy (115HI→122HI), Sweden (129HI→127HI), Romania (138HI→142HI), U.S. (166HI→166HI), Louisiana (202HI→191HI), Denmark (186HI→196HI), Alabama (229HI→227HI), California (246HI→229HI), U.K. (213HI→229HI), Iran (229HI→231HI), New York (271HI→271HI), Toronto (294HI→299HI), Brazil (520HI→532HI), Israel (1030HI→1001HI), South Africa (1094HI→1043HI), Singapore (36243HI→28041HI), Canada (9→7), Ontario (25→25), Norway (27→32), Mexico (43→37), Turkey (53→47), Malaysia (78→70), Japan (139→136), Indonesia (183→182), South Korea (263→251), New Zealand (1541→1721), Thailand (3135→3208), Australia (4987→4608), China (32212→30028)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Poland, Louisiana, California, Canada, Mexico, Turkey, Malaysia, South Korea

Worse: Sweden, Alabama, Japan

The same: Indonesia

Better: Italy, Romania, U.S., Denmark, U.K., Iran, New York, Toronto, Ontario

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: France (461→505, 78.7%), Malta (new→738, 94.8%), Austria (2681→758, 93.8%), Spain (16206→2037, 96.0%), Germany (new→3298, 96.5%), India (new→4711, 43.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Timor-Leste (4, 0.0%); Fiji (11, 0.0%); Benin (14, 35.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Gabon (14, 3.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Mauritius (14, 20.1%); Mozambique (14, 51.1%); Nicaragua (14, 91.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 28.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 11.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Solomon Islands (19, 36.4%); Dominica (23, 50.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (26, 31.7%); Cambodia (46, 11.4%); Comoros (55, 16.3%); Equatorial Guinea (70, 1.9%); Yemen (70, 6.7%); Guinea-Bissau (72, 8.8%); Senegal (72, 1.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (79, 15.9%); Nepal (106, 40.4%); San Marino (107, 71.6%); Monaco (118, 41.3%); Iceland (147, 15.8%); Togo (171, 69.5%); Ghana (182, 16.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (187, 3.2%); Saudi Arabia (247, 9.3%); Bahrain (254, 21.9%); Philippines (262, 31.1%); Saint Lucia (305, 93.1%); Kuwait (314, 42.2%); Madagascar (348, 11.9%); Czechia (352, 44.2%); Burkina Faso (386, 19.0%); Luxembourg (393, 85.9%); Switzerland (395, 64.6%); Ecuador (432, 27.9%); Panama (575, 61.4%); Argentina (597, 76.7%); Andorra (624, 62.9%); Armenia (646, 72.3%); Liechtenstein (665, 63.2%); Moldova (673, 83.2%); Haiti (697, 37.5%); El Salvador (701, 22.2%); Guinea (777, 54.2%); Cabo Verde (793, 35.7%); Uzbekistan (889, 22.2%); Bahamas (1002, 69.0%); Bolivia (1084, 37.4%); Belgium (1160, 65.6%); Kyrgyzstan (1176, 57.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1304, 96.6%); Iraq (1310, 91.5%); Morocco (1459, 94.3%); Oman (1468, 31.8%); Nigeria (1504, 18.3%); Zambia (1524, 17.7%); Tunisia (1896, 70.4%); Vietnam (2798, 25.7%); Slovakia (2939, 91.5%); Qatar (3102, 8.7%); Jordan (3244, 74.9%); Tajikistan (3738, 28.2%); Libya (5010, 98.2%); Cuba (5223, 46.1%); Central African Republic (6040, 63.7%); Malawi (10126, 18.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): VI (129, 19.3%); MT (132, 73.0%); GU (175, 75.0%); ND (396, 76.6%); MN (413, 89.5%); SD (417, 86.0%); NC (511, 78.5%); MS (895, 80.7%); MP (950, 84.7%); TN (1485, 87.6%); AR (2397, 96.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 10.0%); QC (509, 54.8%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Canada (6795), Costa Rica (2877), Malaysia (1884), Russia (24891), Turkey (6713, 3-day record streak), West Bank and Gaza (1552).

There were a lot of problems with provincial COVID-19 data today here in Ontario.

First, the total number of reported new cases was 1,009, which would have been the lowest since November 5th; but the government says that it was actually low because they forgot to stop counting yesterday at the right time, and included some cases that should have gone into today's count. So the two-day total of 2,598 is correct, but we are not sure how many there were no which day.

Still, it's a lot less than our recent 7-day average of 2,829 every two days, so should we be happy? No, because we haven't been able to identify even a quarter of our cases since September, because the government let infections outstrip testing capacity. It turns out that although we have a nominal daily testing capacity of 50,000 tests, we only manage to proces a little over 27,000 tests today, for reasons that the government didn't publish. So we found fewer cases because we tested even fewer people than usual.

The government currently estimate a test positivity rate of 5.8% province-wide. This helps put an upper limit on how many cases there are of 5.8% of the population, or 870,000 people, if the sampling weren't biased toward people who were likely to be sick. The government's official estimate is about 13,000, and I'd guess that the actual figure is 50~60,000.

The province reports intensive care admissions at 159, which exceeds a previously reported threshold of 150 at which elective surgeries would have to be cancelled, but is still far from the 350-case level at which patients who need intensive care cannot receive it.

The province downplayed today's record number of new school cases (270), saying that it was in part due to catching up from a professional activity day in some school systems on Friday. The province continues to claim, its own data notwithstanding, that schools are not a significant venue for transmission of COVID-19. Its numbers show that kids are as likely to catch COVID-19 as anyone else who goes out in public.

One small piece of good news announced locally is that the province has finally begun deploying rapid test kits to long-term care facilities, and has announced that it will eventually start making them available to hospitals and essential businesses.

Alberta looks like it is likely to overtake Ontario to take the lead soon in official active cases, but other than an indication that both are in a difficult and avoidable situation, they aren't directly comparable. Alberta has 30% of the population of Ontario, and about the same proportion of testing capacity; its new hospitalisation rate is about 40% higher in absolute numbers than Ontario, which suggests that its cases are that much higher. So maybe instead of Alberta having a few thousand less than Ontario, Alberta has 70-80,000 to Ontario's 50-60,000.

See today's chart for a closer look at how each Canadian province and territory is doing.

Stay safe.

2020-11-23

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (106HI→112HI), Italy (112HI→115HI), Sweden (129HI→129HI), Romania (136HI→138HI), U.S. (166HI→166HI), Germany (168HI→170HI), Denmark (186HI→186HI), Louisiana (202HI→202HI), Malta (206HI→213HI), U.K. (202HI→213HI), Alabama (225HI→229HI), Iran (225HI→229HI), California (240HI→246HI), New York (288HI→271HI), Toronto (272HI→294HI), Brazil (526HI→520HI), South Africa (1094HI→1094HI), Singapore (36241HI→36243HI), Canada (10→9), Ontario (26→25), Norway (24→27), Mexico (43→43), Turkey (59→53), Malaysia (86→78), India (93→88), Japan (146→139), Indonesia (188→183), South Korea (263→263), New Zealand (1655→1541), Thailand (3615→3135), Australia (4414→4987), China (32212→32212)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: New York, Turkey, Malaysia, India, Japan, Indonesia

The same: Canada, Ontario

Better: Poland, Italy, Sweden, Romania, U.S., Germany, Denmark, Louisiana, Malta, U.K., Alabama, Iran, California, Toronto, Mexico, South Korea

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: France (1771→461, 79.8%), Austria (new→2681, 97.9%), Israel (new→7631, 11.4%), Spain (5815→16206, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Brunei (1, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (5, 0.0%); Fiji (12, 0.0%); Benin (14, 35.6%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 11.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 20.1%); Nicaragua (14, 91.8%); Papua New Guinea (14, 4.7%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Solomon Islands (14, 56.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Dominica (30, 60.7%); Comoros (33, 16.3%); Yemen (56, 7.4%); Cambodia (74, 12.5%); Antigua and Barbuda (79, 15.9%); Iceland (91, 16.4%); Nepal (115, 42.8%); Ghana (142, 18.1%); Togo (162, 71.6%); Zambia (166, 16.4%); Monaco (174, 44.7%); Armenia (180, 73.7%); Philippines (219, 29.1%); Bahrain (240, 22.0%); San Marino (274, 82.3%); Vietnam (274, 26.5%); Saudi Arabia (281, 9.7%); Czechia (323, 46.1%); Madagascar (348, 11.9%); Peru (370, 19.7%); El Salvador (380, 22.3%); Andorra (389, 62.8%); Kuwait (445, 44.3%); Cuba (493, 44.8%); Panama (524, 62.1%); Bahamas (669, 68.2%); Cameroon (759, 21.9%); Guinea (777, 54.2%); Argentina (824, 79.1%); Belgium (846, 65.9%); Oman (903, 31.9%); Kyrgyzstan (996, 58.0%); Bolivia (1058, 37.8%); Luxembourg (1142, 92.3%); Iraq (1394, 91.7%); Ecuador (2625, 27.0%); Switzerland (2703, 76.5%); Haiti (3183, 38.2%); Malawi (3344, 18.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3589, 98.8%); Libya (4043, 98.4%); Qatar (4255, 8.8%); Tajikistan (5011, 28.3%); Slovakia (8366, 92.0%); Botswana (15286, 64.6%); Ireland (30223, 83.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): MT (172, 73.6%); GU (237, 77.6%); MP (244, 84.7%); NC (548, 73.0%); MN (851, 89.8%); SD (1379, 89.6%); ND (1608, 84.2%); AR (2615, 94.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); QC (598, 55.4%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Azerbaijan (3196), Georgia (4048, 4-day record streak), Lithuania (2307), Turkey (6017, 2-day record streak), Uruguay (135).

Across Canada, according to the CMAJ numbers, B.C. active cases were up 32% in 7 days to 7,666, Alberta up 42% to 12,195, Saskatchewan up 48% to 2,683, Manitoba up 16% to 7,447, Ontario up 4% to 15,947 (including a 30-case decrease today), Quebec down 10% to 11,128, New Brunswick up from 22 to 77, PEI down from 4 to 3, Nova Scotia up from 21 to 44, Newfoundland and Labrador up from 10 to 21, Northwest Territories steady at 5, Yukon up from 1 to 9, Nunavut up from 18 to 128.

In Ontario today, new daily case records were set in Peel (535), the Central East (811), Waterloo (83), Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (30), and the Central West (273), as well as in the province as a whole (1,589). Today's chart shows how each region has been doing in our second wave.

Toronto saw only 311 new cases reported today (the lowest in more than two weeks), but that could just mean we were allocating our limited tests to the wrong people. Inferring from hospital admissions, we should still be seeing about 2,000 new cases a day, and our case fatality rate of 3% means we're missing somewhere between 2/3 and 5/6 of cases. We are still averaging three-day turnaround on testing, and our 6.2% positivity says we aren't testing widely enough across the community to know the full current extent of the pandemic in Toronto. Compared to where we were exactly a month ago, our ICU bed occupancy is up from 63% to 81%, ICU ventilator bed occupancy from 23% to 42%, and acute bed occupancy from 85% to 88%.

Stay safe.

2020-11-22

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (95HI→98HI), Poland (101HI→106HI), Italy (107HI→112HI), Sweden (129HI→129HI), Romania (131HI→136HI), U.S. (166HI→166HI), Germany (164HI→168HI), Denmark (188HI→186HI), Louisiana (214HI→202HI), U.K. (191HI→202HI), Malta (201HI→206HI), Alabama (225HI→225HI), Iran (0→225HI), California (248HI→240HI), Toronto (284HI→272HI), New York (304HI→288HI), Brazil (520HI→526HI), Israel (1065HI→1077HI), Canada (11→10), Norway (28→24), Ontario (27→26), Mexico (57→43), Turkey (63→59), Malaysia (83→86), Japan (154→146), Indonesia (189→188), South Korea (281→263), Thailand (3908→3615), Australia (4413→4414), China (34738→32212)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Louisiana, Iran, California, Toronto, New York, Norway, Mexico, Turkey, Japan, South Korea

Worse: Denmark

The same: Canada, Ontario, Indonesia

Better: Austria, Poland, Italy, Sweden, Romania, U.S., Germany, U.K., Malta, Alabama, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (47→75, 5.4%), Singapore (189→160, 0.4%), France (1780→1771, 87.7%), India (1790→4160, 43.3%), Spain (5033→5815, 98.4%), South Africa (1066→7382, 21.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (63): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (2, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (6, 0.0%); Fiji (13, 0.0%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.9%); Nicaragua (14, 91.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 28.6%); Solomon Islands (14, 56.8%); Somalia (14, 77.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Vietnam (14, 26.3%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Dominica (30, 60.7%); Comoros (33, 16.3%); Yemen (48, 7.6%); Cambodia (74, 12.5%); Guinea-Bissau (76, 11.5%); Iceland (82, 17.9%); Monaco (98, 47.3%); Bhutan (99, 22.4%); Guinea (107, 53.5%); Ghana (124, 17.6%); San Marino (129, 82.3%); Cuba (160, 42.3%); Burkina Faso (165, 16.2%); Nepal (169, 51.4%); Togo (173, 74.9%); Armenia (174, 73.4%); El Salvador (223, 22.3%); Czechia (232, 47.1%); Rwanda (276, 19.3%); Zambia (278, 16.9%); Saudi Arabia (349, 10.1%); Andorra (377, 64.2%); Bahrain (408, 23.4%); Kuwait (428, 46.2%); Bahamas (444, 68.5%); Panama (535, 63.7%); Mozambique (601, 49.7%); Belgium (666, 67.0%); Bolivia (690, 38.0%); Cameroon (759, 21.9%); Oman (897, 32.6%); Kyrgyzstan (940, 58.7%); Taiwan (1112, 21.9%); Malawi (1441, 18.1%); Burundi (1634, 66.7%); Libya (1822, 97.6%); Slovakia (1969, 92.9%); Qatar (2200, 8.8%); Iraq (2431, 92.8%); Russia (2746, 98.0%); Belize (2805, 94.5%); Haiti (3183, 38.2%); Tajikistan (3778, 28.4%); Argentina (3910, 81.6%); Botswana (15286, 64.6%); Honduras (19087, 92.2%); Morocco (27159, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (4): MT (205, 72.3%); SD (321, 87.3%); MP (1011, 89.1%); WY (2482, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); QC (598, 55.4%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Belarus (1588, 3-day record streak), Croatia (3573), Finland (469, 2-day record streak), Georgia (3824, 3-day record streak), Japan (2586, 4-day record streak), Latvia (642), Russia (24538, 3-day record streak), Turkey (5532), Ukraine (14864, 3-day record streak), West Bank and Gaza (1486, 2-day record streak).

Questions are being asked in the Japanese media as to why the government didn't shut down a domestic tourism incentive programme sooner; a much better question (which I think I first asked on July 23rd) was why the government was paying tourists to travel around the country spreading COVID-19 while simultaneously telling people to avoid traditional annual holiday trips home to family.

What's going on now in Japan though is still a relatively small part of the Asian situation, as illustrated in today's chart. There, you can see that Russia, after remaining suspiciously stable at 200,000 active cases from June to September (I would guess that was their testing capacity), has increased recently to almost 500,000; this increase was more than offset by an improvement in the situation in India; but if you then add in third-place Iran and fifth-place Jordan, the continental situation hasn't changed much in three months.

In Ontario, new daily records were set in the following health units: Hastings Prince Edward (4); Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge (4); Haldimand-Norfolk (10); Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (30). The Central West Region also set a record with 242 cases. Toronto reported a record on its own 24-hour cycle, but not in provincial data.

In Toronto, our active case count increased for the first time in five days, rising from 4,448 to 4,543, on the strength of today's record-setting 547 new cases. We are still seeing 12 new confirmed cases each day for every 100 known active cases, but our so-called lockdown doesn't take effect until tomorrow. Back in August when we were able to bring that rate of transmission down from 12% to 5%, we managed to decrease our number of active cases by 5% daily. It looks like we are still underestimating (through preventing testing) active cases by a factor of four (based on daily hospitalization numbers), so if we have about 18,000 active cases now and the partial lockdown somehow manages to be effective in returning us to August levels of transmission, we should leave the 30-day lockdown with only 3,900 cases going into Christmas. That doesn't seem like a big drop from the current official 4,500, but a sub-4,000 number that was consistent with other published figures would certainly be reason for hope. If we continued for another 30 days (but we won't, because of Christmas), we could be down to 800, and then after another 30 days to less than 200.

Stay safe.

2020-11-21

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (98HI→101HI), Italy (104HI→107HI), Sweden (129HI→129HI), Romania (129HI→131HI), Germany (161HI→164HI), U.S. (168HI→166HI), Denmark (200HI→188HI), U.K. (180HI→191HI), Malta (203HI→201HI), Alabama (221HI→225HI), California (265HI→248HI), Toronto (281HI→284HI), New York (304HI→304HI), Brazil (520HI→520HI), Israel (1099HI→1065HI), Iran (1→0), Canada (12→11), Norway (24→28), Turkey (71→63), Malaysia (82→83), Japan (161→154), Indonesia (187→189), South Korea (307→281), Australia (4925→4413)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Denmark, California, Turkey, Japan, South Korea

Worse: U.S., Malta

The same: Iran, Canada

Better: Poland, Italy, Sweden, Romania, Germany, U.K., Alabama, Toronto, New York, Malaysia, Indonesia

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (47→47, 4.5%), Singapore (385→189, 0.4%), Thailand (267→231, 5.9%), China (195→457, 0.8%), South Africa (1892→1066, 20.1%), Louisiana (new→1190, 53.1%), France (1436→1780, 85.9%), India (1148→1790, 43.2%), Mexico (1667→4098, 96.7%), Spain (4205→5033, 98.4%), Ontario (new→5410, 99.2%), Austria (new→8930, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (3, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (7, 0.0%); Barbados (14, 9.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.9%); Solomon Islands (14, 56.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Gambia (19, 0.3%); Suriname (40, 0.9%); Yemen (55, 8.3%); Namibia (63, 8.6%); Iceland (64, 18.5%); Cambodia (66, 11.4%); Guinea-Bissau (76, 11.5%); Guinea (80, 52.1%); Monaco (86, 46.7%); San Marino (129, 82.3%); Nepal (143, 52.8%); Andorra (150, 63.2%); Bhutan (155, 23.5%); Cuba (161, 43.0%); Armenia (169, 75.6%); Rwanda (179, 17.9%); Ghana (184, 19.0%); Czechia (185, 48.1%); Jordan (186, 77.5%); Togo (186, 78.7%); Burundi (218, 60.8%); El Salvador (224, 22.4%); Djibouti (228, 2.0%); Dominica (234, 90.2%); Switzerland (290, 76.5%); Liechtenstein (317, 66.8%); Comoros (341, 21.2%); Bahrain (383, 24.5%); Guyana (412, 76.6%); Kuwait (440, 46.7%); Saudi Arabia (481, 10.6%); Zambia (493, 18.4%); Panama (504, 65.0%); Taiwan (561, 21.9%); Belize (578, 94.1%); Mozambique (593, 49.6%); Bolivia (603, 38.2%); Belgium (680, 67.5%); Bahamas (873, 72.0%); Oman (897, 32.6%); Kyrgyzstan (918, 59.1%); Haiti (1173, 38.1%); Angola (2016, 90.0%); Malawi (2024, 18.2%); Qatar (2161, 8.9%); Slovakia (2219, 93.1%); Honduras (2258, 90.5%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2381, 97.8%); Kenya (2397, 98.2%); South Sudan (2746, 71.2%); Russia (3334, 98.3%); Iraq (3621, 94.2%); Tajikistan (3794, 28.5%); Netherlands (6131, 90.6%); Libya (6989, 99.3%); Venezuela (12351, 33.6%); Botswana (15286, 64.6%); Chile (20079, 11.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): MT (159, 68.7%); MP (329, 86.1%); SD (421, 87.1%); WY (2303, 94.2%); TN (4758, 92.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); QC (666, 56.5%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Albania (836, 6-day record streak), Algeria (1103), Azerbaijan (3169, 2-day record streak), Belarus (1457, 2-day record streak), Finland (461), Georgia (3768, 2-day record streak), Japan (2426, 3-day record streak), Lithuania (2265), Russia (24059, 2-day record streak), Serbia (6254, 4-day record streak), US (195542, 2-day record streak), Ukraine (14834, 2-day record streak), West Bank and Gaza (1472).

At the St. Lawrence Market today, a vendor friend in the farmer's market building said that everyone she had seen all day was wearing a mask properly, and briskly conducting their transactions without lingering indoors for chit-chat. I went briefly in to the main building to buy a newspaper for my dad, and talk with a vendor there. When I did, I saw the only person all day who wasn't properly masked: an apparently somewhat mentally ill woman, who had her nose exposed, and was ranting at length about the world at a security guard, who listened patiently.

Elsewhere in town, it looked like there were more people downtown than usual, possibly trying to get their in-person Christmas-shopping done before we lock down tomorrow night.

Peterborough Health Unit tied its daily record with 6 new cases reported today, and its surrounding Central East region set a new record with 765 cases.

Today's chart is the weekly update of school and general cases in Toronto and Ontario, showing a definite levelling off in the past week.

Stay safe.

2020-11-20

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (84HI→92HI), Poland (95HI→98HI), Italy (100HI→104HI), Romania (127HI→129HI), Sweden (132HI→129HI), Germany (158HI→161HI), U.S. (170HI→168HI), U.K. (171HI→180HI), Denmark (200HI→200HI), Alabama (221HI→221HI), Louisiana (203HI→232HI), California (288HI→265HI), Toronto (274HI→281HI), New York (304HI→304HI), Israel (1099HI→1099HI), Iran (2→1), Canada (12→12), Norway (26→24), Ontario (28→28), Turkey (78→71), Malaysia (77→82), Indonesia (182→187), South Korea (336→307)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Turkey, South Korea

Worse: Sweden, U.S., Norway

The same: Iran

Better: Poland, Italy, Romania, Germany, U.K., Denmark, Alabama, Toronto, New York, Canada, Ontario, Malaysia, Indonesia

Much better: Austria, Louisiana

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Australia (new→14, 14.6%), New Zealand (38→47, 4.3%), Japan (new→128, 72.1%), China (174→195, 0.8%), Thailand (146→267, 6.0%), Singapore (156→385, 0.4%), India (703→1148, 43.6%), France (2409→1436, 88.1%), Mexico (1294→1667, 95.9%), South Africa (2389→1892, 21.0%), Brazil (2454→2202, 56.1%), Spain (4320→4205, 98.7%), Malta (new→4260, 99.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (4, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (8, 0.0%); Barbados (14, 9.6%); Cambodia (14, 14.8%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Gambia (16, 0.3%); Suriname (20, 0.7%); Solomon Islands (21, 56.8%); Namibia (37, 7.7%); Yemen (49, 8.6%); Liechtenstein (59, 65.5%); Zambia (59, 18.0%); Iceland (60, 18.6%); Djibouti (62, 2.0%); Monaco (73, 48.7%); Guinea-Bissau (76, 11.5%); Guinea (80, 56.3%); Burundi (107, 54.2%); Andorra (153, 65.9%); Ghana (155, 19.0%); Cabo Verde (159, 36.9%); Czechia (173, 50.7%); Armenia (179, 77.4%); Jordan (183, 76.0%); Vietnam (187, 25.9%); Nepal (196, 60.2%); Peru (199, 19.7%); Togo (212, 81.8%); Botswana (222, 64.6%); Dominica (234, 90.2%); El Salvador (272, 23.3%); San Marino (293, 90.2%); Comoros (341, 21.2%); Kuwait (348, 47.6%); Bahrain (361, 24.9%); Rwanda (412, 18.2%); Switzerland (447, 73.0%); Haiti (469, 39.2%); Panama (472, 66.0%); Belize (508, 93.7%); Finland (522, 87.4%); Portugal (547, 91.6%); Taiwan (549, 21.6%); Saudi Arabia (596, 10.9%); Bolivia (640, 38.8%); Chile (651, 11.1%); Guyana (679, 75.7%); Belgium (706, 68.6%); Luxembourg (753, 94.9%); Mozambique (770, 51.1%); Oman (818, 32.6%); Kenya (922, 95.2%); Slovakia (1038, 92.9%); Kyrgyzstan (1074, 59.5%); Tajikistan (1087, 28.4%); Bahamas (1442, 71.2%); Tunisia (1443, 72.0%); Angola (1609, 89.3%); Morocco (1699, 97.3%); Cuba (1760, 46.3%); Colombia (1936, 34.5%); Qatar (2147, 8.8%); Netherlands (2690, 90.3%); Honduras (2754, 90.9%); Iraq (5202, 94.8%); Moldova (6311, 88.4%); Libya (8270, 99.1%); Venezuela (8738, 33.6%); Argentina (12974, 83.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): GU (321, 90.2%); ND (423, 84.6%); PR (472, 59.1%); TN (505, 91.5%); MP (970, 86.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT (14, 100.0%); PE (25, 15.0%); QC (586, 57.8%)

JHU new case records in most recent data: Albania (786), Azerbaijan (2597), Belarus (1382), Estonia (411), Georgia (3697), Japan (2382), Russia (23337), Saint Lucia (20), Serbia (6109), US (187833), Ukraine (13630).

Ontario's 1,418 new cases today brought it to six figures and a cumulative total of 100,790. North Barry Parry Sound Health Unit set its own daily record with four new cases today, as did Grey Bruce (21), and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (26). Active cases province-wide were down for a third straight day, by five cases to 12,623, because there were 1,415 recoveries and eight deaths. The last time we had three consecutive decreases was October 15th.

Today's chart shows the age distribution of new cases per capita in Toronto, averaged over seven days. Cases remain fairly tightly clustered (from 85 to 212, the tightest range since October 31), indicating that no age ranges are roughly equally responsible for contagion. The 212 cases per million is among Torontonians in their twenties, and is up from 185 a week ago. A week ago, nonagenarians were worst affected, with 271 new cases per million, but are now down to 147.

The big local news is that the provincial government has announced a partial lockdown in Toronto and Peel: not as hard as the first one, as schools and non-retail workplaces are expected to stay open, but most non-essential retail establishments are expected to close. This is good news, and should eventually bring numbers down, even if not as quickly as a less politically palatable harder lockdown.

Stay safe.

2020-11-19

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (107HI→106HI), Italy (111HI→112HI), Romania (144HI→133HI), U.S. (176HI→179HI), Germany (0→184HI), Sweden (205HI→189HI), Denmark (195HI→195HI), U.K. (188HI→195HI), Malta (205HI→198HI), Alabama (263HI→250HI), Toronto (265HI→273HI), California (284HI→283HI), New York (325HI→308HI), Israel (1028HI→1035HI), Iran (3→2), Canada (13→12), Ontario (30→30), Turkey (73→71), Malaysia (85→85), Japan (190→178), Indonesia (209→201), South Korea (299→299), Australia (3667→4104)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Romania, Germany, Sweden, Malta, Alabama, New York, Japan, Indonesia

Worse: Turkey

The same: Poland, California, Iran, Canada

Better: Italy, U.S., Denmark, U.K., Toronto, Ontario, Malaysia, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (new→38, 4.0%), Thailand (247→146, 5.9%), Singapore (91→156, 0.4%), China (197→174, 0.8%), Louisiana (396→361, 42.9%), India (749→703, 43.6%), Norway (473→728, 94.6%), Mexico (1858→1294, 96.2%), South Africa (new→2389, 20.2%), France (3889→2409, 90.3%), Brazil (new→2454, 54.4%), Spain (8251→4320, 98.7%), Austria (5418→15723, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (85): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (5, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (9, 0.0%); Cambodia (14, 14.8%); Dominica (14, 96.4%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gambia (14, 0.3%); Guatemala (14, 37.3%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Malawi (14, 18.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 9.5%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (15, 0.8%); Solomon Islands (21, 56.8%); Namibia (26, 7.2%); Barbados (35, 11.5%); Djibouti (60, 2.0%); Iceland (65, 21.3%); Guinea (69, 56.3%); Liechtenstein (71, 66.4%); Guinea-Bissau (76, 11.5%); Zambia (77, 19.2%); Monaco (78, 50.0%); Yemen (90, 10.2%); Cabo Verde (107, 36.1%); Burundi (115, 54.2%); Ecuador (126, 27.4%); Jordan (183, 76.0%); Nepal (188, 61.8%); Czechia (195, 53.6%); Guyana (212, 70.7%); Botswana (225, 64.8%); Philippines (237, 35.5%); Togo (258, 85.0%); Burkina Faso (274, 18.4%); San Marino (293, 90.2%); Andorra (316, 67.8%); Bhutan (321, 24.7%); Kuwait (325, 48.3%); Finland (345, 80.8%); Haiti (382, 38.6%); El Salvador (410, 24.3%); Bahrain (451, 25.2%); Chile (477, 10.7%); Ghana (493, 22.5%); Cuba (524, 47.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (540, 26.5%); Kenya (568, 92.4%); Portugal (580, 88.6%); Bolivia (612, 39.3%); Belize (679, 93.4%); Moldova (680, 87.8%); Belgium (706, 70.0%); Saudi Arabia (722, 11.1%); Panama (738, 67.2%); Slovakia (746, 92.5%); Luxembourg (858, 95.5%); Angola (916, 89.4%); Peru (928, 22.2%); Oman (982, 33.3%); Switzerland (1083, 77.9%); Tajikistan (1092, 28.5%); Bahamas (1127, 71.6%); Eswatini (1203, 12.4%); Armenia (1210, 94.1%); Colombia (1401, 34.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1522, 86.4%); South Sudan (1557, 71.2%); Honduras (1741, 91.4%); Netherlands (1841, 90.1%); Argentina (2042, 84.0%); Iraq (2387, 94.8%); Slovenia (3070, 83.4%); Tunisia (3314, 72.0%); Georgia (3541, 88.9%); Croatia (3561, 98.8%); Qatar (3636, 8.9%); Uzbekistan (3981, 22.3%); Venezuela (4012, 33.5%); Kyrgyzstan (4111, 60.3%); Sierra Leone (13829, 97.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): GU (339, 89.0%); ND (419, 86.3%); SD (529, 92.4%); MS (939, 77.8%); NC (1262, 96.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NL (14, 5.2%); NT (14, 100.0%); PE (25, 15.0%); QC (1013, 59.3%)

My condolences to the nation of Germany, which became the 71st country in the world to let 1% of its population contract COVID-19.

Japan's active case count of 16,732 is rapidly climbing up a third wave (4% daily), and has now exceeded the mid-August peak of the second wave, which was already much larger than the late-April peak of the first.

In Ontario, Grey Bruce Health Unit tied its daily record of 10 new cases today.

On the other hand, across the province, active cases actually declined for a second consecutive day for the first time since October 15th. Likewise, active cases were down in Toronto for the second day running, for the first time since November 6th. Ontario dropped from 12,932 to 12,628, and Toronto dropped from 4,766 to 4,563. One-day declines happen occasionally due to reporting irregularities; two-day declines of course much less often. So, genuine good news, and a likely indication that people are taking the threat seriously, and doing what they can to isolate themselves in the absence of a lockdown or even school closures. If these current two-day rates of decline were to somehow continue steadily, then Toronto would be free of COVID-19 by June 17 next year, and Ontario by January 20, 2022.

Of course, what happens will be determined more by principles of Asimovian psychohistory than standard epidemiological models, because what happens depends on what people do in response to what government does. It could go away faster, it could stop getting better and just keep climbing. And in any case, we don't really need complete eradication to return to some semblance of normal life. Back in August, we were down to 250 active cases in Toronto, and I remember thinking that if we could get it down below 100, I could believe that we could stay vigilant for new cases and keep numbers down without everyone having to hide in their houses for dear life.

So how long does it actually take in practice to get down to that 100-case level? There are 15 countries that at some point in the pandemic have managed to come down from more than 1,000 active cases to fewer than 100, and today's chart plots their trajectories to 100. If you read along the curves that form the right-upper edge ("convex hull") of the chart, you'll see the best-case scenario observed from each starting point. Senegal (recently ranked #2 behind New Zealand in the quality of its COVID-19 response) looks like the sort of country to aspire to, able to bring 1,000 cases to 100 in just 10 days toward the end of the curve, and making it from a Toronto-like peak of 4,400+ down to sub-100 in 70 days. Seventy days wouldn't be soon enough to see your loved ones for Christmas, but it would make Valentine's dates in restaurants possible. Wouldn't that be nice? If only we lived in Senegal.

Stay safe.

2020-11-18

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (88HI→94HI), Italy (92HI→97HI), Romania (123HI→124HI), Sweden (125HI→131HI), U.K. (153HI→158HI), U.S. (175HI→172HI), Denmark (211HI→200HI), Alabama (279HI→229HI), Toronto (259HI→261HI), California (317HI→307HI), New York (319HI→319HI), Brazil (508HI→548HI), Israel (1099HI→1122HI), South Africa (1287HI→1224HI), Germany (1→0), Iran (4→3), Canada (14→13), Ontario (28→28), Malaysia (78→80), Turkey (90→84), Japan (183→178), Indonesia (187→185), South Korea (378→336), New Zealand (2468→2223), Australia (5427→4653)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Denmark, Alabama, California, Turkey, Japan, South Korea

Worse: U.S., Indonesia

The same: Germany, Iran, Canada

Better: Poland, Italy, Romania, Sweden, U.K., Toronto, New York, Ontario, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (145→91, 0.4%), China (379→197, 0.8%), Thailand (207→247, 6.3%), Louisiana (new→396, 38.5%), Norway (186→473, 89.6%), India (842→749, 43.9%), Mexico (3547→1858, 96.6%), Malta (new→2608, 96.5%), France (1181→3889, 90.6%), Austria (new→5418, 98.7%), Spain (38704→8251, 99.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (81): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (6, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (10, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 6.8%); Cambodia (14, 14.8%); Dominica (14, 96.4%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gambia (14, 0.4%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 15.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Suriname (14, 0.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (20, 9.6%); Namibia (20, 6.5%); Solomon Islands (21, 56.8%); Grenada (37, 33.3%); Djibouti (44, 2.0%); Iceland (65, 24.1%); Zambia (71, 18.6%); Monaco (82, 58.0%); Cabo Verde (91, 36.8%); Ecuador (105, 23.8%); Guinea (115, 70.8%); Liechtenstein (122, 65.1%); Yemen (148, 11.0%); Jordan (167, 72.3%); Botswana (225, 64.8%); Philippines (237, 34.1%); Nepal (248, 66.4%); Czechia (265, 58.0%); Benin (286, 31.8%); Bahrain (294, 25.4%); Guyana (326, 71.6%); Togo (344, 88.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (368, 11.0%); Haiti (382, 38.6%); Andorra (435, 69.5%); Luxembourg (447, 91.6%); Switzerland (474, 73.5%); Croatia (482, 89.9%); Uzbekistan (483, 22.2%); Peru (484, 21.2%); Malawi (499, 18.5%); Ghana (509, 22.6%); Eswatini (523, 12.0%); Cuba (532, 49.8%); Portugal (557, 86.8%); Moldova (574, 85.5%); Kuwait (668, 50.5%); El Salvador (732, 25.9%); Belgium (738, 72.3%); Mozambique (783, 52.5%); Bolivia (790, 40.4%); Chile (881, 11.2%); Georgia (907, 84.4%); Panama (934, 68.8%); Armenia (963, 94.5%); Saudi Arabia (972, 11.3%); Argentina (1092, 82.6%); Angola (1107, 90.6%); Slovakia (1223, 95.1%); Tajikistan (1279, 28.7%); Colombia (1487, 34.2%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1522, 86.4%); Netherlands (1734, 90.6%); Guatemala (1890, 35.9%); Iraq (2117, 94.6%); Oman (2147, 34.0%); Slovenia (2549, 83.4%); Sierra Leone (3428, 96.5%); Venezuela (4021, 33.6%); Belize (5145, 95.6%); Qatar (13661, 9.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (17600, 99.3%); Bahamas (56225, 73.6%); Tunisia (56828, 70.5%); Kyrgyzstan (61521, 61.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): MP (14, 90.5%); ND (317, 85.1%); MS (589, 72.0%); NC (662, 87.1%); GU (2530, 89.6%); MN (2750, 93.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT (14, 100.0%); YT (14, 14.3%); PE (25, 15.0%)

New daily records were set for new cases in Iran (13,421, the fourth consecutive daily record) and Romania (10,269). A new record was set in Poland for daily reported deaths, with 603.

New records were set in Ontario today for numbers of cases reported in Thunder Bay (20, more than double yesterday's record of 9), and in the surrounding North West region (23). There were 22 COVID-19 deaths reported in Toronto today. That was more than on any day since one day at the beginning of October, and before that a day early in June.

There were two new cases in our neighbourhood in the past week: a woman in her 40s, and a man in his 90s who has been hospitalized. Officials do not know where either one contracted COVID-19. In addition, the last person reported to have caught COVID-19 in our neighbourhood, a woman in her 50s, has been found to actually be from Thorncliffe Park.

Today's chart is a weekly update showing how many cases there were in each neighbourhood in Toronto. You can interact with it here:

Every one of the 140 neighbourhoods in Toronto reported at least one case in the past week. Three of them had more than 100 new cases. There is no part of the city where you are safe.

Stay safe.

2020-11-17

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (73HI→75HI), Poland (83HI→88HI), Italy (92HI→92HI), Romania (123HI→123HI), Sweden (115HI→125HI), U.K. (151HI→153HI), U.S. (179HI→175HI), Malta (192HI→204HI), Denmark (211HI→211HI), Toronto (257HI→259HI), Louisiana (397HI→263HI), Alabama (279HI→279HI), California (362HI→317HI), New York (319HI→319HI), Brazil (533HI→508HI), South Africa (1307HI→1287HI), Germany (2→1), Iran (5→4), Canada (15→14), Ontario (30→28), Malaysia (81→78), Turkey (96→90), Japan (187→183), Indonesia (187→187), South Korea (467→378), New Zealand (2960→2468), Australia (5162→5427)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Louisiana, California, Turkey, Japan

Worse: Ontario, Malaysia

The same: Germany, Iran, Canada

Better: Austria, Poland, Italy, Romania, Sweden, U.K., Malta, Denmark, Toronto, Alabama, New York, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (118→145, 0.4%), Norway (new→186, 76.9%), Thailand (404→207, 6.5%), Israel (769→352, 10.9%), China (664→379, 0.9%), India (1102→842, 44.6%), France (3152→1181, 88.8%), Mexico (new→3547, 97.9%), Spain (new→38704, 99.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (80): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (7, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (11, 0.0%); Dominica (14, 96.4%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 1.8%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gabon (14, 2.6%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 15.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Marshall Islands (14, 0%); Nicaragua (14, 87.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 4.8%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Somalia (14, 74.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 9.6%); Gambia (19, 0.6%); Solomon Islands (21, 56.8%); Suriname (23, 1.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (25, 6.8%); Grenada (37, 33.3%); Namibia (49, 13.0%); Cabo Verde (51, 30.8%); Djibouti (60, 2.2%); Monaco (63, 58.7%); Iceland (80, 27.2%); Zambia (82, 19.4%); Ecuador (122, 22.5%); Guinea (156, 75.9%); Cambodia (159, 13.6%); Bhutan (174, 25.9%); Comoros (184, 22.1%); Liechtenstein (217, 72.0%); Botswana (225, 64.8%); Philippines (246, 32.9%); Yemen (272, 11.6%); Czechia (285, 62.5%); Benin (286, 31.8%); Nepal (314, 71.5%); Togo (407, 91.6%); Ghana (414, 22.6%); Luxembourg (415, 90.3%); Bahrain (428, 26.7%); El Salvador (458, 26.0%); Belgium (464, 72.7%); Peru (511, 21.7%); Haiti (512, 39.1%); Malawi (523, 18.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (541, 9.9%); Kuwait (737, 51.0%); Moldova (785, 86.2%); Bolivia (840, 41.0%); Slovakia (916, 95.0%); Slovenia (1004, 82.5%); Croatia (1022, 91.9%); Argentina (1034, 81.7%); Mozambique (1050, 52.4%); Tajikistan (1103, 28.8%); Guatemala (1192, 35.3%); Saudi Arabia (1225, 11.4%); Angola (1240, 91.7%); Netherlands (1534, 91.4%); Panama (1859, 70.6%); Oman (2147, 34.0%); Bahamas (2304, 74.8%); Vietnam (2746, 25.3%); Armenia (2823, 98.2%); Uzbekistan (2862, 22.3%); Portugal (3525, 90.1%); Iraq (3635, 95.4%); Venezuela (3639, 33.7%); Eswatini (4693, 12.2%); Cuba (5824, 50.6%); Sierra Leone (6843, 96.5%); Georgia (6892, 87.3%); Ireland (7865, 83.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): MP (14, 90.5%); MS (454, 65.3%); GU (649, 84.4%); NC (739, 79.9%); ND (911, 85.5%); SD (261387, 96.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): PE (14, 20.0%); YT (14, 14.3%)

A record number of cases (9) were reported in the Ontario health units of Thunder Bay, Durham (69), and Toronto (569).

For the second day in a row, we set a record for new COVID-19 hospital admissions in a rolling seven-day period in Toronto, with 125 new cases. There are currently 181 patients in Toronto hospitalised with COVDI-19.

Today's weekly chart of how the provinces and territories are doing sees the central and Western provinces continuing their worsening trends unabated, in response to a lack of effective basic control of public health in a pandemic, with businesses and schools open across the country, leaving it to individual citizens to decide when and where to go to share their infection with others, worsened by the arrival of dry indoor winter air that aerosolizes viral droplets to leave them floating for hours and too small to be caught by cloth masks. The only way in which the Atlantic provinces appear to be doing better is by comparison with the rest of the country, including now sadly Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, both of which are experiencing significant outbreaks.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford commented on the situation, "My heart breaks for all businesses that are struggling".

It can be really hard not to get overwhelmed by numbers. I am told that concrete visualisation can help some people make sense of big numbers. We lost two people to COVID-19 in Toronto in the month of August. They were both in their 90s, so maybe in your mind's eye you think of your grandparents, or your great grandparents. They helped raise you and your family, and maybe they would have lived a few more years, but now they're dead and you can't share your lives with them. Then in September, Premier Ford told everyone to go back to school and to work, to keep the economy alive, but 33 of us died. This time, at least one person died in their 50s, so maybe you imagine that I got sick and died, and a bunch of my friends, and maybe the whole regular weekly attendance at the Toronto Scrabble Club, back when we could play Scrabble in person. I guess it's a small sacrifice to keep the city running, and if you told us that that was all it would take and we would be done with it, some of us might even have agreed. In October, even though things were rapidly getting worse, Premier Ford kept everyone open, because his heart was with business owners. 83 of us died. Can you visualise 83 corpses, and 83 online funerals for 83 grieving families? A large restaurant might have served 83 people at a time, back when it was safe to do so. If they all died in a month, the restaurant would likely close, regardless of the circumstances, or the effect on the livelihood of its owner or its staff. So why is it that 100+ Torontonians are being asked to make the ultimate sacrifice this month, when all the survivors stand to gain from that loss is the chance to lose even more lives next month?

Andy Beaton challenged me to say something positive about the COVID-19 situation today. Here are some of my failed attempts.

Although it looks as though the number of officially recognized new cases we see in each seven-day period is increasing in Toronto (the most recent 3,193 is 420 more than the previous 2,773, which was 393 more than the previous 2,380), if you look at it as a percentage it's actually slowing down a little (our numbers grew by only 15% in the past seven days, compared to 17% in the preceding).

Although it looks like we might be three days away from running out of ICU capacity in Toronto, that's only assuming that ICU admissions are proportional to general hospital admissions, and that the capacity for both are fixed. (Toronto says that we were at 78% ICU capacity on November 8th, when there were 157 hospitalised cases; hospitalised cases are now at 181 and rising 3% daily; if the percentage increases in total hospitalizations and ICU admissions follow the same pattern, then we have three days. In fact, in the first wave we had more than 400 people hospitalized at one point, which shouldn't happen here for almost four weeks.)

Although we have more active cases in Toronto than ever before (officially 4,766, I'd guess about 15,000), we have far fewer cases hospitalized, so you could think that we are dealing with cases more effectively. Unfortunately, this means just letting more patients die in long-term care rather than transferring them to hospitals to be put on ventilators. And estimating our actual first-wave cases on the basis of Chinese fatality age demographics suggests that we identified only half those original cases, so we are probably now just about at the point where as many people in Toronto have COVID-19 as did at the worst of the first wave.

Here is one genuinely good statistic, if the sort of thing that randomly happens at the worst of times: only 25 of 34 Ontario public health units are reporting cases today, the lowest in more than a week, down from 32 yesterday.

Stay safe.

2020-11-16

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (70HI→73HI), Poland (80HI→83HI), Italy (91HI→92HI), Sweden (115HI→115HI), Romania (125HI→123HI), U.K. (149HI→151HI), U.S. (184HI→179HI), Malta (190HI→192HI), Spain (191HI→220HI), Toronto (257HI→257HI), Alabama (279HI→279HI), New York (321HI→319HI), California (362HI→362HI), Louisiana (397HI→397HI), Brazil (548HI→533HI), South Africa (1351HI→1307HI), Germany (3→2), Iran (6→5), Canada (16→15), Norway (32→29), Ontario (30→30), Mexico (44→44), Malaysia (81→81), Turkey (106→96), Indonesia (190→187), Japan (195→187), South Korea (467→467), New Zealand (2334→2960), Australia (6316→5162)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Turkey, Japan

Worse: Romania, New York, Norway, Indonesia

The same: Germany, Iran, Canada

Better: Austria, Poland, Italy, Sweden, U.K., Malta, Toronto, Alabama, California, Ontario, Mexico, Malaysia

Much better: Spain

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (new→118, 0.4%), Thailand (709→404, 6.5%), China (1182→664, 0.9%), Israel (2168→769, 10.5%), India (1737→1102, 45.7%), France (752→3152, 91.7%), Denmark (1363→6497, 96.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (67): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (8, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (12, 0.0%); Benin (14, 34.7%); Cambodia (14, 14.8%); Dominica (14, 96.4%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 1.8%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gambia (14, 0.5%); Grenada (14, 41.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 15.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Marshall Islands (14, -25.0%); Nicaragua (14, 87.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 4.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 9.9%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Solomon Islands (14, 90.9%); Somalia (14, 74.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 9.6%); Suriname (20, 1.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (25, 6.8%); Namibia (40, 15.7%); Iceland (60, 28.0%); Monaco (66, 64.0%); Cabo Verde (119, 43.8%); Djibouti (131, 2.6%); Ecuador (138, 21.3%); Cuba (168, 47.0%); Philippines (213, 30.9%); Eritrea (234, 35.5%); Guinea (262, 82.1%); El Salvador (266, 26.4%); Czechia (319, 67.2%); Gabon (326, 2.5%); Belgium (338, 73.8%); Bahrain (428, 27.2%); Togo (433, 93.5%); Nepal (436, 75.2%); Congo (Kinshasa) (437, 10.7%); Malawi (453, 18.3%); Bahamas (572, 72.9%); Mozambique (629, 53.3%); Slovenia (634, 82.7%); Argentina (694, 83.7%); Bolivia (757, 41.4%); Angola (877, 91.3%); Saudi Arabia (1083, 11.6%); Oman (1131, 34.2%); Netherlands (1388, 92.1%); Colombia (1549, 35.3%); Tajikistan (1733, 29.1%); Panama (1914, 72.1%); Slovakia (2867, 97.1%); Ireland (3403, 83.4%); Moldova (3548, 89.0%); Venezuela (3650, 33.8%); Honduras (3981, 92.3%); Uzbekistan (4736, 22.2%); Sierra Leone (6874, 96.9%); Haiti (19311, 41.9%); Kuwait (29804, 53.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): NC (414, 72.8%); MP (499, 87.6%); MS (595, 61.7%); SD (1328, 93.7%); TX (2270, 86.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): PE (14, 20.0%); YT (14, 14.3%)

I'm getting most of my region-of-interest data from Wikipedia, as most Wikipedia pages about COVID-19 have easy-to-scrape tabular data that is updated earlier in the day than the big JHU update. The only ones that I'm not using Wikipedia for are Norway (for some reason, its English Wikipedia editors are different from everyone else's), and Toronto (because I have to get more detailed information from the city anyway). For Norway (and until relatively recently, a few other countries), I had been using the nice Berliner Morgenpost website, but noticed their number for Norway hadn't been updated now in three days. Looking further, I see that it's the JHU data that has gotten stuck, and I know from past experience that as authoritative as they are, the JHU team does not respond to random inquiries from people pointing out problems in their data feed. So I've temporarily switched back to fetching Norwegian data straight from the Folkehelseinstituttet, which serves pages in English as well as in Norwegian, but does offer you a chance to complete a survey in Norwegian if you feel as though you might not be living up to your polyglot heritage by getting your data from the English pages.

Waterloo District tied its record (67) for new cases today, set two days previously. Overall, the province set a record with new cases reported in 32 of 34 public health units, with the only ones spared being Northwestern and North Bay Parry Sound.

Today's chart is a weekly update on how each continent is doing. Europe is starting to bring its second wave under control through a variety of national measures; North America is still failing to do so. Asia is slowly creeping up again, with increases in Russia offsetting declines in India.

One of my favourite CBC Radio panel quiz shows, Because News, had a thought-provoking moment in this week's episode, when the panel was asked to whom coronavirus vaccines should first be administered. The best answer was that they should be given first to anyone planning on organizing or attending a superspreader event, then to people who refused to wear masks, then to people who were just generally stupid or selfish.

Stay safe.

2020-11-15

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (68HI→70HI), Poland (77HI→80HI), Italy (90HI→91HI), Sweden (115HI→115HI), Romania (124HI→125HI), U.K. (151HI→149HI), U.S. (189HI→184HI), Malta (192HI→190HI), Spain (191HI→191HI), Toronto (250HI→257HI), Alabama (279HI→279HI), New York (322HI→321HI), California (369HI→362HI), Louisiana (397HI→397HI), Brazil (604HI→548HI), Singapore (23948HI→23569HI), Germany (3→3), Iran (7→6), Canada (17→16), Ontario (30→30), Norway (28→32), Mexico (42→44), Malaysia (84→81), Turkey (110→106), Indonesia (191→190), Japan (205→195), South Korea (535→467), New Zealand (2012→2334), Australia (7171→6316)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., California, Turkey, Japan

Worse: U.K., Malta, Malaysia

The same: New York, Iran, Canada, Indonesia

Better: Austria, Poland, Italy, Sweden, Romania, Spain, Toronto, Alabama, Germany, Ontario, Mexico

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (150→709, 6.8%), France (793→752, 83.8%), South Africa (484→1168, 20.6%), China (1290→1182, 0.9%), Denmark (1499→1363, 96.3%), India (1107→1737, 47.1%), Israel (1315→2168, 11.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 6.8%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 1.8%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 41.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 15.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Nicaragua (14, 87.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 4.8%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Solomon Islands (14, 90.9%); Suriname (14, 1.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Gambia (15, 0.7%); Colombia (55, 35.6%); Namibia (57, 19.2%); Monaco (68, 64.7%); Iceland (73, 31.5%); Cabo Verde (127, 46.5%); Djibouti (136, 2.7%); Cuba (138, 49.7%); Gabon (168, 2.5%); Mozambique (191, 50.2%); Congo (Kinshasa) (230, 10.7%); Eritrea (234, 35.5%); El Salvador (267, 26.4%); Belgium (313, 75.3%); Somalia (325, 74.9%); Bahrain (372, 27.1%); Malawi (387, 18.3%); Czechia (399, 68.9%); Dominica (439, 96.4%); Sao Tome and Principe (520, 9.5%); Finland (575, 93.8%); Guinea (582, 87.2%); Bahamas (596, 73.7%); Togo (634, 95.0%); Bolivia (661, 42.0%); Slovenia (668, 84.5%); Uzbekistan (791, 22.5%); Zambia (977, 27.3%); Tajikistan (985, 29.2%); Nepal (1054, 78.1%); Saudi Arabia (1217, 11.7%); Panama (1278, 71.1%); Venezuela (1316, 33.8%); Andorra (1358, 74.5%); Angola (1389, 93.0%); Netherlands (1489, 92.6%); Oman (1837, 34.7%); Ireland (2429, 83.6%); Nigeria (2500, 16.9%); Jamaica (4440, 87.6%); Slovakia (7353, 98.3%); Armenia (7845, 97.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (3): MP (158, 81.8%); ND (869, 94.9%); TX (6140, 87.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): PE (14, 20.0%); YT (14, 14.3%)

A new record was set today in Iran with 12,543 new cases.

In Ontario, Hastings Prince Edward Public Health Unit set a local record with 4 new cases reported today, similarly Wellington-Dufferin with 24.

Today's chart is a weekly update comparing rates of infection in the Ontario and Toronto school communities with the general population. I realized I had made an erroneous assumption in previous editions of this chart, which is corrected today. While people of school age account for about 1/8 of the population across the province, it does not then follow that it is reasonable to compare active case among students with active cases in the general population scaled by a factor of 1/8. That's because in Toronto fewer than 2/3 of students are choosing to attend classes in person, and across the province I believe that at least 20% of students are enrolled in virtual school programmes. This puts Toronto's school infection rate at the same level as the general population, while in Ontario the student rate led the general rate for much of October but has recently been outstripped by the catastrophic rise in the general rate. It is also interesting to note that the point at which Premier Ford became concerned about the second wave was toward the end of this chart, where the infection rate among his supporters outside Toronto started to climb supraexponentially.

In Toronto, the official active case count (which is likely 20-25% of the real total, due to testing issues), has been rising recently at about 2.5% (doubling time of four weeks), down from a recent high of 4.5% (two weeks). In Ontario, that rate has risen from less than 1% eight days ago (doubling time 75 days) to 8% averaged over the last four days (doubling every nine days).

Stay safe.

2020-11-14

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (66HI→68HI), Poland (73HI→77HI), Italy (86HI→90HI), Sweden (115HI→115HI), Romania (121HI→124HI), U.K. (151HI→151HI), U.S. (194HI→189HI), Spain (191HI→191HI), Malta (184HI→192HI), Toronto (257HI→250HI), Alabama (279HI→279HI), New York (367HI→322HI), California (399HI→369HI), Louisiana (397HI→397HI), Brazil (604HI→604HI), Singapore (22160HI→23948HI), Germany (4→3), Iran (8→7), Canada (18→17), Norway (31→28), Ontario (32→30), Mexico (42→42), Malaysia (83→84), Turkey (116→110), Indonesia (197→191), Japan (217→205), South Korea (639→535), New Zealand (2107→2012), Australia (7294→7171)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Toronto, New York, Turkey, Indonesia, Japan

Worse: Norway, Ontario

The same: Germany, Iran, Canada

Better: Austria, Poland, Italy, Sweden, Romania, U.K., Spain, Malta, Alabama, Mexico, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (158→150, 6.8%), South Africa (395→484, 19.9%), France (547→793, 86.4%), India (1091→1107, 47.2%), China (7765→1290, 0.9%), Israel (new→1315, 10.8%), Denmark (1009→1499, 96.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (10, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 13.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 41.7%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 15.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Gambia (30, 1.1%); Namibia (75, 22.5%); Senegal (75, 0.7%); Iceland (82, 35.7%); Solomon Islands (126, 90.9%); Gabon (168, 2.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (179, 9.5%); Czechia (205, 69.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (214, 2.8%); Eritrea (234, 35.5%); Cuba (241, 52.4%); Switzerland (241, 81.5%); Chad (262, 13.5%); Colombia (320, 35.3%); Bhutan (321, 24.7%); Somalia (325, 74.9%); Belgium (327, 77.6%); El Salvador (340, 27.2%); Mozambique (349, 54.7%); Monaco (357, 74.7%); Bahamas (415, 73.7%); Cabo Verde (420, 49.4%); Dominica (439, 96.4%); Djibouti (479, 3.0%); Finland (506, 89.0%); Slovenia (533, 84.8%); Andorra (552, 74.5%); Nigeria (576, 16.8%); Tajikistan (590, 29.3%); Bolivia (667, 42.6%); Bahrain (679, 28.4%); Burkina Faso (721, 18.2%); Sri Lanka (738, 81.0%); Haiti (758, 41.9%); Peru (866, 23.3%); Togo (1101, 95.8%); Ireland (1151, 83.1%); Netherlands (1203, 93.3%); Saudi Arabia (1262, 11.8%); Venezuela (1265, 33.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (1316, 11.8%); Angola (1450, 93.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (1641, 24.8%); Panama (1862, 72.0%); Honduras (1907, 92.2%); Oman (1985, 34.7%); Maldives (2466, 29.8%); Malawi (2726, 19.5%); Armenia (4541, 99.0%); Moldova (5194, 91.9%); Zambia (8668, 27.2%); Jamaica (9399, 87.9%); Mali (10835, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): MP (14, 90.5%); ND (1093, 96.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NL (14, 3.1%); NT (14, 100.0%); YT (14, 14.3%); NB (33, 13.5%)

(Just a reminder that the above two paragraphs mean that all the provinces, states and territories are trending upward in their active case count.)

Record numbers of new cases were seen today in Ontario (1,581), the United States (166,855), and Norway (949). There were record numbers of COVID-19 deaths reported today in Austria (85) and Poland (546).

Across Ontario, there were record new cases reported in Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health (10) for the second day in a row, due to outbreaks at a school and a long-term care facility. Also in Peel (497), Simcoe Muskoka (34), and Waterloo (67).

No new action from any level of government.

This week's chart is a new one, and likely a one-off. Statistics Canada has published weekly excess mortality figures through September 5, with a footnote saying that beginning (the week ending in) June 27, numbers for some provinces are not complete, so presumably the excess mortality figures are low. Plotted on a chart with our national COVID-19 deaths, they show that we did reasonably well at identifying most of the deaths due to COVID-19. The unaccounted for excess could easily be deaths due to other causes rather than missing COVID-19 deaths. It will be interesting to see, when the rest of the year's statistics come in, whether we were actually far below our expected mortality for non-COVID-19 causes, or (I think more likely) just had a lot of deaths whose reporting was significantly delayed.

Stay safe.

2020-11-13

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (65HI→66HI), Poland (63HI→70HI), Italy (84HI→85HI), France (98HI→109HI), Romania (114HI→116HI), Sweden (120HI→123HI), U.K. (159HI→152HI), Malta (170HI→186HI), Spain (183HI→188HI), U.S. (209HI→201HI), Toronto (274HI→265HI), Alabama (308HI→279HI), New York (470HI→367HI), Louisiana (546HI→397HI), California (452HI→400HI), Brazil (860HI→629HI), Singapore (26990HI→25162HI), Germany (6→5), Iran (11→10), Canada (21→20), Norway (31→28), Ontario (37→34), Mexico (46→43), Turkey (118→116), Japan (251→233), South Korea (639→639), New Zealand (2599→2456), Australia (6607→6507), China (15665→19791)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., U.S., Toronto, Alabama, Japan

Worse: Norway, Ontario, Mexico, Turkey

The same: Germany, Iran, Canada

Better: Austria, Italy, Romania, Sweden, Spain

Much better: Poland, France, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (101→97, 6.8%), Israel (451→412, 11.1%), South Africa (988→1127, 20.7%), India (1270→1183, 48.1%), Denmark (new→2002, 97.5%), Malaysia (5492→2753, 98.4%), Indonesia (4319→4373, 81.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (12, 0.0%); Botswana (14, 64.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 80.4%); Eritrea (14, 38.4%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Mauritius (14, 10.7%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Guinea-Bissau (15, 15.2%); Papua New Guinea (19, 2.6%); Senegal (20, 0.5%); Antigua and Barbuda (21, 9.1%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Chad (33, 11.5%); Gambia (49, 1.5%); Burundi (55, 58.3%); Gabon (77, 2.6%); Yemen (78, 12.4%); Cameroon (84, 13.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (96, 2.5%); Iceland (104, 43.3%); Comoros (112, 20.2%); Burkina Faso (127, 15.3%); Ecuador (138, 28.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (141, 9.9%); Bhutan (145, 22.4%); Cabo Verde (151, 55.2%); Cuba (161, 55.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (168, 24.0%); Andorra (170, 76.7%); Monaco (174, 88.0%); Colombia (242, 36.4%); Zambia (264, 27.5%); Liechtenstein (280, 84.5%); Tajikistan (295, 29.6%); Philippines (313, 37.9%); Sri Lanka (368, 81.2%); Czechia (383, 78.5%); Moldova (400, 90.1%); Chile (407, 10.5%); Slovenia (412, 88.4%); Finland (435, 78.9%); Dominica (439, 96.4%); Peru (453, 23.7%); Switzerland (496, 79.7%); Belgium (507, 86.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (539, 11.4%); Bahrain (586, 29.4%); Maldives (653, 29.5%); Bolivia (675, 43.8%); Nigeria (686, 15.8%); Uzbekistan (716, 22.3%); Venezuela (760, 34.1%); Malawi (786, 19.4%); Ireland (861, 84.5%); Haiti (982, 41.9%); Netherlands (1126, 95.5%); Oman (1157, 35.4%); Angola (1212, 95.3%); Bahamas (1304, 77.1%); Saudi Arabia (1626, 12.0%); Honduras (1820, 93.3%); Mali (1876, 95.0%); Guatemala (2231, 35.4%); Somalia (2357, 74.9%); Paraguay (2733, 95.3%); Namibia (3024, 32.2%); Luxembourg (3273, 98.8%); Slovakia (3277, 98.6%); Jamaica (3837, 87.2%); Kuwait (4121, 53.2%); El Salvador (5707, 30.0%); Panama (9576, 73.7%); Croatia (22151, 97.2%); Bangladesh (69873, 73.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): VI (78, 10.2%); NC (330, 87.3%); MS (407, 66.1%); MP (520, 90.5%); ND (2700, 88.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT (14, 25.0%); YT (14, 14.3%); NB (21, 12.5%); NS (284, 4.1%)

Toronto saw 39 new COVID-19 hospital admissions today, a second-wave record, and a key indicator of how things are going to go badly for us when we run out of hospital capacity. Today, for example, I was able to take my father to a downtown teaching hospital for some necessary, extensive, but not emergency oral surgery. A month or two from now, that might not be possible, and he would just have to stay home and suffer. Likewise, I got to do a three-way video call with my aunt and one of her medical specialists; in a couple of months, when the hospitals and nursing homes are full of COVID-19, no one will have the time for non-emergency consultations.

Local records for new daily cases were set today in North Bay Parry Sound (3), Peterborough (4), Grey Bruce (7), Waterloo (58), regionally in the South West (105), and of course in Ontario itself with 1,575.

Among other regions of interest, new daily case records were set in the U.S. (139,234), U.K. (33,470), and Austria (9,262). None of them set records for newly reported deaths.

Ontario active school cases set yet another record today with 1,041 students sick with COVID-19. Today's chart is a weekly update on the age breakdown of cases in Toronto. What strikes me today about the chart is how safe we managed to keep our kids in April and May, and how we treat them now as though they were as expendable as anyone else.

Stay safe.

2020-11-12

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (65HI→66HI), Poland (63HI→70HI), Italy (84HI→85HI), France (98HI→109HI), Romania (114HI→116HI), Sweden (120HI→123HI), U.K. (159HI→152HI), Malta (170HI→186HI), Spain (183HI→188HI), U.S. (209HI→201HI), Toronto (274HI→265HI), Alabama (308HI→279HI), New York (470HI→367HI), Louisiana (546HI→397HI), California (452HI→400HI), Brazil (860HI→629HI), Singapore (26990HI→25162HI), Germany (6→5), Iran (11→10), Canada (21→20), Norway (31→28), Ontario (37→34), Mexico (46→43), Turkey (118→116), Japan (251→233), South Korea (639→639), New Zealand (2599→2456), Australia (6607→6507), China (15665→19791)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., U.S., Toronto, Alabama, Japan

Worse: Norway, Ontario, Mexico, Turkey

The same: Germany, Iran, Canada

Better: Austria, Italy, Romania, Sweden, Spain

Much better: Poland, France, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (101→97, 6.8%), Israel (451→412, 11.1%), South Africa (988→1127, 20.7%), India (1270→1183, 48.1%), Denmark (new→2002, 97.5%), Malaysia (5492→2753, 98.4%), Indonesia (4319→4373, 81.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (12, 0.0%); Botswana (14, 64.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 80.4%); Eritrea (14, 38.4%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Mauritius (14, 10.7%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Guinea-Bissau (15, 15.2%); Papua New Guinea (19, 2.6%); Senegal (20, 0.5%); Antigua and Barbuda (21, 9.1%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Chad (33, 11.5%); Gambia (49, 1.5%); Burundi (55, 58.3%); Gabon (77, 2.6%); Yemen (78, 12.4%); Cameroon (84, 13.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (96, 2.5%); Iceland (104, 43.3%); Comoros (112, 20.2%); Burkina Faso (127, 15.3%); Ecuador (138, 28.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (141, 9.9%); Bhutan (145, 22.4%); Cabo Verde (151, 55.2%); Cuba (161, 55.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (168, 24.0%); Andorra (170, 76.7%); Monaco (174, 88.0%); Colombia (242, 36.4%); Zambia (264, 27.5%); Liechtenstein (280, 84.5%); Tajikistan (295, 29.6%); Philippines (313, 37.9%); Sri Lanka (368, 81.2%); Czechia (383, 78.5%); Moldova (400, 90.1%); Chile (407, 10.5%); Slovenia (412, 88.4%); Finland (435, 78.9%); Dominica (439, 96.4%); Peru (453, 23.7%); Switzerland (496, 79.7%); Belgium (507, 86.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (539, 11.4%); Bahrain (586, 29.4%); Maldives (653, 29.5%); Bolivia (675, 43.8%); Nigeria (686, 15.8%); Uzbekistan (716, 22.3%); Venezuela (760, 34.1%); Malawi (786, 19.4%); Ireland (861, 84.5%); Haiti (982, 41.9%); Netherlands (1126, 95.5%); Oman (1157, 35.4%); Angola (1212, 95.3%); Bahamas (1304, 77.1%); Saudi Arabia (1626, 12.0%); Honduras (1820, 93.3%); Mali (1876, 95.0%); Guatemala (2231, 35.4%); Somalia (2357, 74.9%); Paraguay (2733, 95.3%); Namibia (3024, 32.2%); Luxembourg (3273, 98.8%); Slovakia (3277, 98.6%); Jamaica (3837, 87.2%); Kuwait (4121, 53.2%); El Salvador (5707, 30.0%); Panama (9576, 73.7%); Croatia (22151, 97.2%); Bangladesh (69873, 73.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): VI (78, 10.2%); NC (330, 87.3%); MS (407, 66.1%); MP (520, 90.5%); ND (2700, 88.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT (14, 25.0%); YT (14, 14.3%); NB (21, 12.5%); NS (284, 4.1%)

Toronto saw 39 new COVID-19 hospital admissions today, a second-wave record, and a key indicator of how things are going to go badly for us when we run out of hospital capacity. Today, for example, I was able to take my father to a downtown teaching hospital for some necessary, extensive, but not emergency oral surgery. A month or two from now, that might not be possible, and he would just have to stay home and suffer. Likewise, I got to do a three-way video call with my aunt and one of her medical specialists; in a couple of months, when the hospitals and nursing homes are full of COVID-19, no one will have the time for non-emergency consultations.

Local records for new daily cases were set today in North Bay Parry Sound (3), Peterborough (4), Grey Bruce (7), Waterloo (58), regionally in the South West (105), and of course in Ontario itself with 1,575.

Among other regions of interest, new daily case records were set in the U.S. (139,234), U.K. (33,470), and Austria (9,262). None of them set records for newly reported deaths.

Ontario active school cases set yet another record today with 1,041 students sick with COVID-19. Today's chart is a weekly update on the age breakdown of cases in Toronto. What strikes me today about the chart is how safe we managed to keep our kids in April and May, and how we treat them now as though they were as expendable as anyone else.

Stay safe.

2020-11-11

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (63HI→63HI), Austria (65HI→65HI), Italy (83HI→84HI), France (95HI→98HI), Romania (114HI→114HI), Sweden (120HI→120HI), U.K. (154HI→159HI), Malta (179HI→170HI), Denmark (0→187HI), U.S. (219HI→209HI), Toronto (282HI→274HI), Alabama (308HI→308HI), California (452HI→452HI), New York (470HI→470HI), Louisiana (546HI→546HI), Brazil (860HI→860HI), Germany (7→6), Iran (12→11), Canada (22→21), Norway (31→31), Ontario (39→37), Mexico (46→46), Turkey (118→118), Japan (271→251), South Korea (639→639), New Zealand (2323→2599), Australia (6217→6607), China (15665→15665)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malta, Denmark, U.S., Toronto, Japan

Worse: Ontario

The same: Germany, Iran, Canada

Better: Poland, Austria, Italy, France, Romania, Sweden, U.K., Alabama, Norway, Mexico, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (103→14, 0.4%), Thailand (506→101, 7.0%), Israel (323→451, 11.2%), South Africa (555→988, 21.4%), India (1829→1270, 48.6%), Indonesia (3613→4319, 80.9%), Malaysia (new→5492, 97.9%), Spain (new→53196, 97.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (13, 0.0%); Botswana (14, 64.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 80.4%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Mali (14, 94.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 50.0%); Mauritius (14, 10.7%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Vanuatu (14, 100.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Guinea-Bissau (15, 15.2%); Papua New Guinea (19, 2.6%); Senegal (23, 0.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (25, 13.6%); Barbados (27, 9.6%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (37, 19.0%); Chad (41, 12.2%); Burundi (53, 54.2%); Comoros (86, 20.2%); Yemen (89, 12.4%); Gabon (101, 2.8%); Burkina Faso (104, 14.9%); Gambia (110, 1.8%); Iceland (110, 45.4%); Ecuador (128, 25.3%); Andorra (163, 76.2%); Cote d'Ivoire (190, 2.9%); Cabo Verde (202, 57.9%); Tunisia (212, 71.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (219, 25.0%); Czechia (224, 78.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (274, 9.9%); Tajikistan (295, 30.1%); Cameroon (305, 11.4%); Sri Lanka (326, 81.5%); Philippines (337, 36.3%); Cuba (345, 60.4%); Slovenia (424, 90.1%); Benin (431, 27.0%); Switzerland (462, 79.2%); Peru (469, 22.6%); Moldova (470, 91.1%); Bahamas (476, 77.8%); Eritrea (504, 38.4%); Belgium (539, 88.8%); Maldives (544, 29.1%); Croatia (593, 91.0%); Guyana (671, 71.6%); Bahrain (678, 29.6%); Haiti (709, 41.4%); Ireland (750, 85.1%); Vietnam (751, 21.2%); Chile (764, 11.0%); Bolivia (802, 44.8%); Guatemala (1019, 34.4%); Mozambique (1047, 59.5%); Argentina (1071, 84.0%); Angola (1085, 95.5%); Venezuela (1175, 34.8%); Oman (1183, 35.4%); Honduras (1207, 93.6%); Sudan (1239, 86.6%); Netherlands (1249, 95.9%); Liechtenstein (1267, 82.9%); Paraguay (1273, 94.9%); El Salvador (1483, 30.0%); Saudi Arabia (1601, 12.1%); Malawi (2196, 19.6%); Burma (2334, 72.4%); Namibia (3237, 32.2%); Luxembourg (3273, 98.8%); Panama (3585, 73.5%); Afghanistan (4562, 42.4%); Bangladesh (11518, 73.4%); Slovakia (26241, 98.9%); Qatar (92719, 8.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (4): NC (268, 80.5%); MS (297, 60.8%); MP (520, 90.5%); PR (3536, 40.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): YT (12, 0.0%); NS (14, 4.3%); NT (14, 25.0%); NB (29, 15.4%)

New daily case records were set today in Ontario (1,426) and Iran (11,780); no new daily death records were set in my regions of interest.

Vanuatu saw its first case of COVID-19 today, a 23-year-old man who tested positive in quarantine after travelling to the United States.

The president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business was widely quoted in the media today saying, "The impact on these firms of having to remain closed for an extended period of time is, for many, going to be fatal." My gut reaction was that the 10,000 Canadians that have died of COVID-19 were fatalities, but a company ceasing operations is a dissolution. Then the wordie side of my brain regains control, and I am reminded that until perhaps 500 years ago, "fatal" meant "predestined" (i.e., determined by fate), and that it now not only means deadly but more broadly speaking ruinous or resulting in failure. And then I think that most stories about me in the media contain significant inaccuracies, and maybe "fatal" isn't the word that the CFIB head would have used if picking his words carefully. And then I go back to looking at the COVID-19 numbers.

Ontario tied a past record with 29 of its 34 public health units reporting new COVID-19 cases today; the five that didn't were Northwestern, Porcupine, Timiskaming, Hastings Prince Edward, and Renfrew County. Records were also set in individual health units in Thunder Bay (8 new cases), Durham (63), Peel (468) and York (180). Active school cases jumped up from 933 to 1,028 today, following a similar general uptick in the province a week ago. To me, this suggests that it's parents that are infecting their kids and sending them to school, rather than catching COVID-19 from their kids who were infected from other kids at school. Which I suppose is good news for kids, because they tend to have fewer parents than friends, and it means that schools are doing a good job keeping kids safe.

Today's chart is the weekly update on Toronto neighbourhoods. Seven neighbourhoods did not report new cases; ours reported three; and Yorkdale-Glen Park was the worst with 110 new cases. The median neighbourhood had seven new cases.

Stay safe.

2020-11-10

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (63HI→63HI), Austria (66HI→65HI), Italy (83HI→83HI), France (90HI→95HI), Romania (111HI→114HI), Sweden (142HI→120HI), U.K. (153HI→154HI), Spain (162HI→173HI), Malta (187HI→179HI), U.S. (228HI→219HI), Toronto (289HI→282HI), Alabama (308HI→308HI), California (452HI→452HI), New York (470HI→470HI), Louisiana (711HI→546HI), Denmark (0→0), Germany (7→7), Iran (14→12), Canada (23→22), Norway (34→31), Ontario (42→39), Mexico (50→46), Malaysia (68→71), Turkey (120→118), Japan (289→271), South Korea (677→639), New Zealand (1917→2323), China (13770→15665)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, Malta, U.S., Toronto, Mexico, Japan

Worse: Iran, Norway, Ontario, Turkey

The same: Austria, Canada

Better: Poland, Italy, France, Romania, U.K., Spain, Alabama, Denmark, Germany, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (67→103, 0.4%), Israel (239→323, 11.2%), Thailand (300→506, 7.9%), South Africa (152→555, 21.9%), India (1570→1829, 49.6%), Indonesia (new→3613, 80.5%), Brazil (new→11930, 48.1%), Australia (new→20602, 13.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (84): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Botswana (14, 64.8%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 1.5%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 50.0%); Mauritius (14, 10.7%); Nicaragua (14, 82.8%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Guinea-Bissau (15, 15.2%); Barbados (20, 9.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (25, 13.6%); Senegal (26, 0.8%); Papua New Guinea (30, 3.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (37, 19.0%); Burundi (50, 53.3%); Gambia (50, 1.8%); Gabon (56, 2.8%); Chad (70, 14.5%); Yemen (105, 12.4%); Bhutan (118, 25.9%); Cabo Verde (120, 52.8%); Ecuador (132, 24.0%); Iceland (140, 49.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (157, 25.2%); Tunisia (162, 67.5%); Andorra (198, 78.7%); Vietnam (205, 18.9%); Cuba (264, 58.7%); Tajikistan (288, 30.7%); Cameroon (305, 11.4%); Bahrain (353, 29.8%); Philippines (361, 34.9%); Comoros (379, 23.1%); Sri Lanka (381, 85.2%); Benin (431, 27.0%); Slovenia (500, 91.8%); Eritrea (504, 38.4%); Moldova (546, 92.6%); Belgium (583, 90.9%); Colombia (615, 40.8%); Argentina (672, 82.0%); Bolivia (702, 45.3%); Bahamas (731, 79.7%); Burkina Faso (747, 18.7%); Guatemala (860, 33.9%); El Salvador (881, 30.1%); Ireland (897, 86.2%); Angola (945, 96.1%); Burma (1096, 69.9%); Luxembourg (1104, 95.7%); Oman (1128, 35.3%); Venezuela (1153, 34.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (1161, 3.2%); Malawi (1233, 19.7%); Sudan (1239, 86.6%); Lesotho (1298, 74.9%); Mozambique (1339, 60.1%); Namibia (1456, 33.8%); Paraguay (1494, 95.2%); Croatia (1508, 93.7%); Saudi Arabia (1552, 12.1%); Czechia (1673, 89.2%); Guyana (1797, 73.3%); Liechtenstein (1912, 76.3%); Netherlands (1949, 97.4%); Honduras (2170, 94.4%); Georgia (2874, 78.6%); Maldives (3121, 30.2%); Peru (3849, 24.5%); Nepal (4784, 77.5%); West Bank and Gaza (6518, 63.5%); Bangladesh (10829, 73.4%); Iraq (38759, 92.0%); Haiti (40444, 43.6%); Guinea (49425, 91.2%); Slovakia (62300, 98.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (3): NC (229, 73.2%); MS (247, 55.6%); MP (520, 90.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (9, 0.0%); NU (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 10.0%); YT (14, 14.3%); NB (52, 20.2%); NS (118, 3.4%)

New daily records for new cases were set today in Ontario (1,388), Norway (912) and Toronto (522). New daily records for deaths were recorded in Malta (7) and Romania (177).

Today's chart is a weekly update on how Canadian provinces are doing. Ontario and Quebec are continuing steadily poorly; the four Western provinces are still worsening faster and approaching Ontario and Quebec in absolute numbers; New Brunswick is settling down but Nova Scotia is climbing rapidly; and the rest have just a few cases each. On a per capita basis, Manitoba leads with 374 cases per 100K population, then Alberta (180), Quebec (126), Saskatchewan (109), British Columbia (97), Ontario (85), New Brunswick (3), Yukon (2), Nova Scotia (2), Newfoundland and Labrador (1), P.E.I. (1). Toronto is currently reporting abut 130 cases per 100K population.

As has been the case since September, we have to take our current case numbers with a grain of salt. The official reports now are that there is one new confirmed case each day for every seven known active cases, which suggests that our R number is up to about two. At the rate at which we are seeing new hospitalisations, we should be inferring the presence of 1,700 new cases a day when the official count is around 500.

Either way, that's far too many, so I am relieved that the city took some steps to try to bring things under control today. They are parting ways with the provincial government and imposing their own policies (which makes me wonder why they waited so long), and not reopening restaurants, bars; exercise facilities; meeting, event and gaming facilities. They have also asked Torontonians to restrict social gatherings and close contact to household members and what they call essential supports; limit excursions to essential activities including work, school, health care, shopping for household and health needs, and exercise; and work from home wherever possible.

Stay safe.

2020-11-09

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (61HI→67HI), Austria (62HI→69HI), Italy (77HI→85HI), France (74HI→89HI), Romania (100HI→124HI), Sweden (142HI→142HI), Spain (154HI→154HI), U.K. (153HI→160HI), Malta (165HI→193HI), U.S. (207HI→207HI), Toronto (307HI→283HI), California (404HI→393HI), New York (424HI→421HI), Louisiana (964HI→964HI), Brazil (1106HI→1106HI), Denmark (0→0), Germany (7→8), Iran (15→13), Canada (23→23), Norway (34→36), Ontario (42→40), Mexico (45→45), Malaysia (65→67), Turkey (110→118), Indonesia (197→214), Japan (248→246), South Korea (634→635), Australia (6712→6905), China (13565→13565)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Toronto

Worse: Iran, Ontario, Japan

Better: Sweden, Spain, U.K., U.S., Denmark, Germany, Canada, Norway, Mexico, Malaysia, Turkey, Indonesia

Much better: Poland, Austria, Italy, France, Romania, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (193→67, 0.4%), New Zealand (44→68, 5.5%), South Africa (154→152, 21.8%), Israel (346→239, 11.1%), Thailand (282→300, 8.2%), India (1371→1570, 50.1%), Alabama (2135→6304, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (80): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 10.2%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 64.0%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 50.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 19.0%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Somalia (14, 75.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (25, 13.6%); Gambia (26, 1.7%); Papua New Guinea (30, 3.0%); Senegal (33, 1.0%); Bhutan (46, 24.7%); Burundi (46, 51.7%); Comoros (69, 23.1%); Barbados (79, 13.5%); Burkina Faso (94, 17.2%); Cuba (113, 57.4%); Tunisia (122, 66.2%); Ecuador (125, 22.8%); Iceland (125, 50.7%); Gabon (133, 3.4%); Liberia (193, 10.9%); Andorra (199, 81.0%); Philippines (287, 32.7%); Tajikistan (302, 31.7%); Cameroon (305, 11.4%); Bahrain (311, 30.5%); Sri Lanka (319, 89.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (327, 28.6%); Equatorial Guinea (348, 1.5%); Peru (359, 23.2%); El Salvador (396, 30.1%); Bahamas (454, 79.1%); Namibia (501, 33.4%); Mozambique (504, 60.1%); Benin (541, 28.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (582, 10.5%); Oman (639, 35.0%); Bolivia (671, 46.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (689, 3.2%); Argentina (755, 83.6%); Slovenia (778, 94.6%); Belgium (780, 93.5%); Sudan (795, 85.2%); Burma (943, 71.5%); Eritrea (998, 38.4%); Nepal (1083, 75.9%); Czechia (1089, 88.5%); Georgia (1101, 76.4%); Ireland (1134, 87.9%); Lesotho (1149, 75.2%); Angola (1254, 95.3%); Chad (1299, 16.5%); Guinea (1337, 90.3%); Saudi Arabia (1461, 12.2%); Moldova (1818, 97.1%); Paraguay (1922, 96.7%); Honduras (1958, 94.5%); West Bank and Gaza (2220, 61.7%); South Sudan (2370, 68.7%); Uzbekistan (2715, 22.8%); Kyrgyzstan (2740, 59.1%); Qatar (3211, 8.7%); Colombia (4076, 43.1%); Venezuela (4121, 35.2%); Jamaica (4764, 88.0%); Netherlands (4990, 99.0%); Panama (7035, 74.2%); Bangladesh (8327, 73.4%); Haiti (20053, 43.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): NC (221, 67.3%); MS (236, 51.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (10, 0.0%); NU (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 10.0%); YT (14, 28.6%); NB (100, 23.1%)

Iran set a record today for most new cases in a day with 10,463. Likewise Toronto with 491.

Looking around the rest of our province, new records were also set in Thunder Bay (7), Algoma (6), the whole of the North East (15), and Middlesex-London (37).

Today's chart is an update from last week showing how each Ontario region is doing on a semilog chart. Although Toronto and the Central East are at the top of the chart, and still steadily climbing and seeing frequent records, they've been doing so steadily for at least six weeks, due to lack of effective government intervention. The situation in the North seems in at least one way more serious, in that there has been essentially no COVID-19 there yet, now there is, and they could easily catch up at their current rate with the South West within a week.

The big good news about COVID-19 today (and when was the last time someone could start a sentence that way here?) was that Pfizer has announced 90% efficacy in its vaccine targeting the Spike protein. If you want a good discussion about the news directed at scientifically literate laypeople, I'm a big fan of Derek Lowe's blog. He says the good news is really that until now we had no idea whether or not a vaccine was possible, but now we do. The bad news is that Pfizer's vaccine will be extremely difficult to distribute: it has to be kept at -80°C, so even once emergency authorisation is obtained for its use and production begins, it's unlikely that you'll be able to get it far away from major population centres for a while. (The question I have about this and other vaccines is how effective they will be for the highest-risk oldest patients.)

And of course, we are still not expecting large-scale vaccination before the middle of 2021, by which point another 300,000 people will have been infected in Toronto, and another 15,000 people will have died unnecessarily. Or we could close down a little more tightly for just long enough to quiet things down, and save those lives.

Stay safe.

2020-11-08

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (65HI→64HI), Austria (66HI→67HI), France (78HI→81HI), Italy (81HI→82HI), Romania (110HI→109HI), Sweden (142HI→142HI), U.K. (149HI→153HI), Malta (153HI→161HI), Spain (162HI→162HI), U.S. (249HI→237HI), Toronto (319HI→306HI), California (530HI→465HI), New York (637HI→506HI), Louisiana (711HI→711HI), Brazil (860HI→860HI), Denmark (4→0), Germany (9→8), Iran (16→15), Canada (28→23), Norway (32→30), Ontario (46→44), Mexico (54→50), Malaysia (66→68), Turkey (126→115), Indonesia (229→219), Japan (325→303), South Korea (715→700), China (14342→13770)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Toronto, Denmark, Canada, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, Japan

Worse: Norway, Ontario

The same: Poland, Romania, Germany, Iran

Better: Austria, France, Italy, Sweden, U.K., Malta, Spain, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (32→44, 5.2%), South Africa (170→154, 21.5%), Singapore (153→193, 0.4%), Thailand (409→282, 8.5%), Israel (463→346, 12.2%), India (1183→1371, 50.4%), Alabama (382880→2135, 97.8%), Australia (2949→5127, 13.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 50.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 4.3%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 19.0%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Somalia (14, 75.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Senegal (15, 1.1%); Gambia (29, 2.0%); Comoros (30, 23.1%); Antigua and Barbuda (35, 13.6%); Bhutan (38, 24.7%); Gabon (40, 3.4%); Barbados (42, 13.5%); Cambodia (42, 8.0%); Suriname (62, 1.6%); Burkina Faso (87, 18.2%); Liberia (101, 10.9%); Tunisia (111, 63.7%); Mozambique (137, 55.2%); Iceland (152, 56.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (162, 28.3%); Finland (257, 86.3%); Namibia (303, 32.6%); Chad (330, 19.8%); Guinea-Bissau (335, 64.0%); Equatorial Guinea (348, 1.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (350, 3.2%); Haiti (352, 43.3%); Tajikistan (365, 32.6%); El Salvador (395, 30.2%); Bahrain (406, 31.1%); Bahamas (407, 79.1%); Mauritius (439, 10.7%); Sri Lanka (461, 89.8%); Burma (531, 71.9%); Bolivia (679, 46.6%); Georgia (698, 76.0%); Iraq (773, 93.1%); Nepal (798, 75.9%); Ireland (924, 88.8%); Eritrea (998, 38.4%); South Sudan (1155, 69.0%); Eswatini (1179, 9.5%); Lesotho (1366, 75.2%); Panama (1395, 74.0%); Oman (1592, 36.6%); Czechia (1707, 89.5%); Saudi Arabia (1851, 12.3%); Belgium (1938, 95.3%); Argentina (2042, 86.2%); Paraguay (2183, 96.8%); Jamaica (2261, 87.9%); Honduras (2627, 95.6%); Kyrgyzstan (4278, 59.4%); Bangladesh (5003, 73.5%); Andorra (5358, 91.7%); Ethiopia (16892, 96.9%); Qatar (31033, 8.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): PR (312, 37.9%); RI (12708, 96.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (10, 0.0%); NU (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 10.0%); YT (14, 28.6%); NB (100, 23.1%)

I am amazed with how quickly Israel has been recovering since they closed schools, malls, nonessential stores, hotels, restaurants, fitness clubs, and synagogues. In just thirty days, they brought their active case count down sevenfold, below 9,000, without shutting down the whole country. It gives me hope that other countries might see the benefits of tight restrictions before hospitals run out of space.

The only new daily records in my regions of interest were set today in Ontario (1,328) and Toronto (442). Within Ontario, new records were set in Thunder Bay (5), Peel (385), Central East Region (567), Toronto (434), Hamilton (86), and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (18). The provincial government's only response has been to say that it is still planning on increasing testing capacity to meet increased demand. Peel announced today that they were giving up on provincial guidelines, and implementing their own somewhat stricter rules. Toronto just reiterated that we should wash our hands and wear our masks, despite overwhelming evidence that this is insufficient.

Today's chart is a weekly update on active cases by continent: Europe is finally slowing down, but still increasing at 2.8% daily (down from 4.4% a week ago); North America is up to 1.6% from 1.25%; Asia has ended four weeks of gradual recovery and is now increasing 0.15% daily.

Stay safe.

2020-11-07

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (65HI→65HI), Austria (68HI→66HI), France (88HI→78HI), Italy (81HI→81HI), Romania (116HI→110HI), Sweden (142HI→142HI), U.K. (149HI→149HI), Malta (158HI→153HI), Spain (162HI→162HI), U.S. (264HI→249HI), Toronto (318HI→319HI), California (580HI→530HI), New York (637HI→637HI), Denmark (4→4), Germany (10→9), Iran (17→16), Canada (30→28), Norway (33→32), Ontario (48→46), Mexico (55→54), Malaysia (70→66), Turkey (128→126), Japan (346→325), South Korea (680→715), China (14606→14342)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Romania, Malta, U.S., Malaysia, Japan

Worse: Austria, Canada, Ontario, Turkey

The same: Germany, Iran, Norway, Mexico

Better: Poland, Italy, Sweden, U.K., Spain, Toronto, Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (29→32, 4.6%), Singapore (1299→153, 0.4%), South Africa (192→170, 22.4%), Thailand (197→409, 8.7%), Israel (648→463, 12.2%), Louisiana (new→533, 29.2%), India (729→1183, 50.8%), Indonesia (994→1873, 81.7%), Australia (1305→2949, 13.9%), Brazil (1533→5419, 48.3%), Alabama (new→382880, 97.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (66): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cameroon (14, 12.5%); Eswatini (14, 9.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gambia (14, 2.0%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 50.0%); Senegal (14, 1.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (25, 6.8%); Seychelles (25, 3.4%); Comoros (33, 24.0%); Suriname (34, 1.3%); Bhutan (36, 23.5%); Gabon (40, 3.4%); Barbados (42, 13.5%); Liberia (53, 10.9%); Burkina Faso (82, 18.3%); Iceland (137, 58.7%); Mozambique (161, 61.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (177, 28.4%); Namibia (201, 32.5%); Lesotho (219, 75.8%); Bahrain (241, 31.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (261, 3.2%); Guinea-Bissau (335, 64.0%); Equatorial Guinea (348, 1.5%); Haiti (352, 43.3%); Tajikistan (372, 33.1%); Finland (393, 86.3%); Mauritius (439, 10.7%); Bahamas (468, 83.4%); United Arab Emirates (492, 14.5%); El Salvador (494, 30.7%); Andorra (610, 91.8%); Bolivia (612, 47.2%); Nepal (617, 74.8%); Tunisia (691, 87.8%); Georgia (696, 75.6%); Sri Lanka (711, 91.3%); Ireland (723, 90.0%); Malawi (804, 19.8%); Burma (826, 73.6%); Iraq (858, 92.8%); Guatemala (1112, 35.7%); Kyrgyzstan (1165, 59.4%); Panama (1293, 74.4%); Jamaica (1506, 87.3%); Oman (1784, 36.6%); Saudi Arabia (2092, 12.3%); Honduras (3235, 97.0%); Paraguay (4405, 98.1%); Colombia (4847, 44.3%); South Sudan (4886, 69.2%); Bangladesh (5170, 73.7%); Belgium (6488, 97.9%); Central African Republic (8470, 62.1%); Guinea (49461, 91.3%); Argentina (152073, 88.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): VI (55, 9.2%); PR (185, 40.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (11, 0.0%); NU (14, 100.0%); PE (14, 10.0%); YT (14, 28.6%); NB (145, 25.0%)

The following regions set new records for new cases in a day: Germany (23,399), Italy (39,809), Ontario (1,132), U.S. (131,086), France (86,852, blowing away yesterday's record of 60,486), Iran (9,450), Austria (8,241), and Poland (27,875).

Today's chart is the weekly one that shows school cases in Toronto and Ontario against the rates in the population at large. Toronto has led the province in cases since taking over from Ottawa on October 20th; Brampton has been in third place since Toronto overtook it on September 22nd. These three cities account for 60% of the province's cases.

The health unit that has seen the best improvement per capita is Ottawa (-21 new weekly cases per 100K population, down to 34), the ones that have seen the severest worsening are Halton (+28 to 57) and Peel (+26 to 116). By comparison, Toronto's official numbers were up +3 to 76.

Sudbury's record 7 cases was surpassed by today's 14, which is also a new record for the whole North East. Hamilton's record 55 new cases, together with Niagara's record 31 and Waterloo's record 36, drove the Central West to a record 217.

All of which adds up to a record 1,132 new cases in the province of Ontario, and no action to head off the disaster that is staring us in the face.

Stay safe.

2020-11-06

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (64HI→65HI), Austria (67HI→68HI), Italy (81HI→81HI), France (89HI→88HI), Romania (123HI→116HI), Sweden (152HI→142HI), U.K. (145HI→149HI), Malta (166HI→158HI), Spain (157HI→162HI), U.S. (273HI→264HI), Toronto (318HI→318HI), Alabama (339HI→339HI), California (580HI→580HI), New York (637HI→637HI), Louisiana (711HI→711HI), Denmark (4→4), Germany (11→10), Iran (19→17), Canada (30→30), Norway (35→33), Ontario (49→48), Malaysia (80→70), Turkey (129→128), Japan (356→346), South Korea (680→680), China (14606→14606)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Romania, Sweden, Malta, U.S., Malaysia, Japan

Worse: Iran, Norway

The same: France, Germany, Ontario, Turkey

Better: Poland, Austria, Italy, U.K., Spain, Toronto, Alabama, Denmark, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (29, no new data, 4.7%), South Africa (192, no new data, 23.7%), Thailand (197, no new data, 8.2%), Mexico (482, no new data, 86.1%), Israel (648, no new data, 12.6%), India (729, no new data, 51.2%), Indonesia (994, no new data, 81.6%), Singapore (1299, no new data, 0.5%), Australia (1305, no new data, 14.0%), Brazil (1533, no new data, 48.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cameroon (14, 12.5%); Chad (14, 19.0%); Eswatini (14, 9.7%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gambia (14, 2.4%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 50.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 23.8%); Senegal (14, 1.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (19, 1.6%); Cambodia (25, 6.8%); Grenada (25, 25.0%); Gabon (29, 4.0%); Comoros (33, 24.0%); Burkina Faso (76, 19.3%); United Arab Emirates (86, 11.7%); Liberia (91, 11.5%); Barbados (94, 15.4%); Bhutan (105, 29.4%); Trinidad and Tobago (108, 30.1%); Iceland (147, 60.9%); Namibia (179, 34.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (180, 3.2%); Burma (186, 72.5%); Yemen (190, 15.0%); Mauritius (223, 10.7%); Mozambique (225, 61.6%); Uruguay (227, 85.8%); Nigeria (228, 15.7%); Bahrain (256, 32.7%); Lesotho (265, 76.5%); Finland (272, 81.0%); Guinea-Bissau (335, 64.0%); Bahamas (348, 83.4%); Haiti (390, 43.6%); Tajikistan (405, 33.9%); Tunisia (479, 87.8%); Andorra (528, 91.8%); Panama (646, 73.3%); El Salvador (649, 31.3%); Chile (688, 10.8%); Equatorial Guinea (688, 1.5%); Bolivia (725, 48.1%); Ireland (764, 90.4%); Iraq (834, 92.1%); Guatemala (873, 35.4%); Sri Lanka (1047, 93.9%); Honduras (1172, 96.3%); Croatia (1200, 96.3%); Czechia (1212, 92.0%); Oman (1226, 36.6%); Nepal (1330, 78.2%); Malawi (1621, 20.1%); Peru (1737, 24.8%); Saudi Arabia (1788, 12.4%); Paraguay (2030, 97.9%); Argentina (2665, 88.4%); Bangladesh (3769, 73.7%); South Sudan (4240, 69.4%); Central African Republic (7262, 62.1%); Ethiopia (11968, 97.2%); Jamaica (40582, 86.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (3): VI (51, 9.2%); GU (192, 81.9%); TN (303, 56.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): PE (7, 0.0%); NT (13, 0.0%); YT (14, 28.6%); NB (72, 26.9%)

Today's chart plots average new cases per active case, vs. proportion of population actively infected for selected countries. If COVID-19 patients are infectious for about two weeks, then 1/14 (7%) new cases per active is roughly equivalent to an R value of 1: that is, every patient infects on average one more. If you are well below 7%, then your situation should improve; if you are above 7%, then you are not doing enough to limit the spread of disease.

New records for new daily cases were set in Germany (21,506), Italy (37,802), Malaysia (1,755), France (60,486), and Romania (10,260). More than 400 people died in Italy for the first time since May. A record 6 people died in one day in Malta, and 41 in Austria. (Spain, Romania and Poland set records yesterday.)

Northeastern Ontario set a daily record of 9 new cases, thanks to a record-setting 7 in Sudbury District alone. Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit saw as many as 3 cases in a day for their first time. Peel Region is now the officially most severely infected part of the province, with 114.3 new cases per 100K population in the past seven days. Toronto is next with 74, then York 51, Halton 49, Brant 48, Eastern Ontario 42, Ottawa 39.

Premier Ford announced today that measures which have proven so far ineffective in bring down Toronto's COVID-19 numbers will stay in effect for at least another week. Other premiers in other provinces hhave started warning citizens about the risk of loss of access to hospital care if current trends continue. New hospitalizations in Toronto in the past seven days were 25% more than the previous week,

Test positivity rates have been published by Toronto neighbourhood since August 30. Back then, the highest rate observed was 6%; it is now up to 16%; this doesn't mean that 1 in 6 of us tests positive, but rather that tests are being reserved for only the people who are most likely to be infected (such as residents in nursing homes with outbreaks), and we're not getting a good sampling of the whole population in the testing process.

Stay safe.

2020-11-05

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (64HI→64HI), Austria (70HI→67HI), Italy (82HI→81HI), France (90HI→89HI), Romania (129HI→123HI), U.K. (145HI→145HI), Sweden (152HI→152HI), Spain (153HI→157HI), Malta (177HI→166HI), U.S. (284HI→273HI), Toronto (0→318HI), Alabama (339HI→339HI), California (586HI→580HI), New York (637HI→637HI), Denmark (6→4), Germany (12→11), Iran (19→19), Canada (32→30), Norway (34→35), Ontario (50→49), Malaysia (83→80), Turkey (129→129), Japan (370→356), South Korea (705→680), China (15405→14606)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Romania, Malta, U.S., Toronto, Denmark, Japan

Worse: Austria, Canada, Malaysia

The same: Italy, France, Germany, Ontario

Better: Poland, U.K., Sweden, Spain, Alabama, Iran, Norway, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (738→29, 4.7%), South Africa (1715→192, 23.7%), Thailand (new→197, 8.2%), Mexico (212→482, 86.1%), Israel (280→648, 12.6%), India (634→729, 51.2%), Indonesia (637→994, 81.6%), Louisiana (4150→1006, 27.4%), Singapore (631→1299, 0.5%), Australia (856→1305, 14.0%), Brazil (772→1533, 48.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cameroon (14, 12.5%); Chad (14, 19.0%); Eswatini (14, 9.7%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gambia (14, 2.4%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 12.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 50.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 23.8%); Senegal (14, 1.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (19, 1.6%); Cambodia (25, 6.8%); Grenada (25, 25.0%); Gabon (29, 4.0%); Comoros (33, 24.0%); Burkina Faso (76, 19.3%); United Arab Emirates (86, 11.7%); Liberia (91, 11.5%); Barbados (94, 15.4%); Bhutan (105, 29.4%); Trinidad and Tobago (108, 30.1%); Iceland (147, 60.9%); Namibia (179, 34.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (180, 3.2%); Burma (186, 72.5%); Yemen (190, 15.0%); Mauritius (223, 10.7%); Mozambique (225, 61.6%); Uruguay (227, 85.8%); Nigeria (228, 15.7%); Bahrain (256, 32.7%); Lesotho (265, 76.5%); Finland (272, 81.0%); Guinea-Bissau (335, 64.0%); Bahamas (348, 83.4%); Haiti (390, 43.6%); Tajikistan (405, 33.9%); Tunisia (479, 87.8%); Andorra (528, 91.8%); Panama (646, 73.3%); El Salvador (649, 31.3%); Chile (688, 10.8%); Equatorial Guinea (688, 1.5%); Bolivia (725, 48.1%); Ireland (764, 90.4%); Iraq (834, 92.1%); Guatemala (873, 35.4%); Sri Lanka (1047, 93.9%); Honduras (1172, 96.3%); Croatia (1200, 96.3%); Czechia (1212, 92.0%); Oman (1226, 36.6%); Nepal (1330, 78.2%); Malawi (1621, 20.1%); Peru (1737, 24.8%); Saudi Arabia (1788, 12.4%); Paraguay (2030, 97.9%); Argentina (2665, 88.4%); Bangladesh (3769, 73.7%); South Sudan (4240, 69.4%); Central African Republic (7262, 62.1%); Ethiopia (11968, 97.2%); Jamaica (40582, 86.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): GU (153, 80.9%); NC (285, 85.5%); VI (285, 11.2%); MP (336, 87.6%); MS (556, 61.6%); TN (8390, 60.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): PE (7, 0.0%); NT (13, 0.0%); YT (14, 28.6%); NB (72, 26.9%)

Italy set a record for new cases today with 34,502, as did the U.S (100,459), France (58,046), Austria (7,416), Romania (9,714), and Poland (27,143).

Today's chart is a weekly update on how each age range is doing in Toronto. It's been a while since a particular age group was singled out for being too infectious (partying young people, high-risk old people), and all we see now is that we're all converging around the 1% mark, which represents the limit of our ability to test the unknown number of infected and infectious people in our city.

I had to see a lot of people today: a bank teller, a medical receptionist, a pharmacist, and a hardware store clerk. I try to combine my errands into as few days as possible in the week, to minimize the chances of my catching COVID-19 and giving it to someone else a few days later. I'm glad all these people were making my life easier by being at their jobs, but each one of them said that they didn't really feel like they had a choice about it.

I wish we would all stay home for even a couple of weeks, to try to bring the numbers back down before winter.

On Thursday, I'm taking my dad to the hospital for what I suppose is elective surgery. It's elective in the sense that he could easily live for a few years in discomfort without the surgery, and might live long enough to die of something else. But because we have functioning hospitals now, he has this option. In a few months from now, when the hospitals are full, we will look back at this time when things looked so much better, and ask why we didn't do anything.

Stay safe.

2020-11-04

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (64HI→64HI), Austria (76HI→70HI), Italy (82HI→82HI), France (89HI→90HI), Romania (137HI→129HI), U.K. (142HI→145HI), Sweden (159HI→152HI), Spain (157HI→153HI), Malta (177HI→177HI), U.S. (290HI→284HI), Alabama (339HI→339HI), California (599HI→586HI), New York (639HI→637HI), Toronto (1→0), Denmark (6→6), Germany (13→12), Iran (21→19), Canada (33→32), Norway (36→34), Ontario (51→50), Turkey (130→129), Japan (368→370), South Korea (703→705), Thailand (2693→3059), China (14064→15405)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, Romania, Sweden, Spain, U.S.

Worse: Iran, Norway

The same: Toronto, Germany, Canada, Ontario, Turkey

Better: Poland, Italy, France, U.K., Malta, Alabama, Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Mexico (352→212, 79.4%), Israel (271→280, 13.6%), Singapore (new→631, 0.4%), India (595→634, 52.4%), Indonesia (566→637, 82.2%), New Zealand (new→738, 7.9%), Brazil (1070→772, 47.5%), Australia (380→856, 13.9%), Malaysia (3337→1584, 97.5%), South Africa (1167→1715, 28.8%), Louisiana (new→4150, 25.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 18.2%); Botswana (14, 55.3%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gambia (14, 3.7%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Haiti (14, 47.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Nicaragua (14, 77.6%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 19.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Senegal (19, 3.7%); Suriname (29, 2.0%); Cameroon (32, 12.5%); Eswatini (56, 9.7%); Barbados (58, 17.3%); Benin (63, 22.7%); Gabon (63, 5.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (67, 33.7%); Djibouti (70, 2.0%); United Arab Emirates (73, 12.8%); Niger (82, 2.4%); Ecuador (92, 26.8%); Mauritius (98, 11.1%); Holy See (99, 48.2%); Congo (Kinshasa) (113, 9.9%); Nigeria (127, 14.4%); Uruguay (143, 80.6%); Philippines (152, 37.2%); Burkina Faso (153, 23.4%); Yemen (190, 15.0%); Iceland (200, 68.6%); Burma (202, 77.7%); Bahrain (205, 33.8%); Rwanda (208, 9.2%); Liberia (239, 13.0%); Oman (255, 37.5%); Lesotho (274, 76.7%); Peru (297, 22.3%); Bahamas (299, 85.7%); Namibia (300, 36.2%); Guatemala (306, 34.0%); Zimbabwe (399, 7.8%); Georgia (412, 80.6%); Tajikistan (432, 35.2%); Croatia (582, 88.3%); Tunisia (632, 93.3%); Panama (641, 76.3%); Ireland (651, 93.0%); Argentina (711, 88.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (745, 3.5%); Maldives (772, 28.7%); Guyana (798, 69.5%); Bolivia (835, 49.6%); Czechia (998, 92.3%); Venezuela (1427, 35.6%); Honduras (1622, 97.2%); Saudi Arabia (1653, 12.5%); Qatar (1775, 8.8%); Chile (1815, 10.9%); Nepal (1932, 80.3%); Uzbekistan (1975, 22.7%); Kuwait (2131, 51.9%); El Salvador (2387, 32.9%); Paraguay (3800, 98.7%); Bangladesh (4202, 74.2%); Ethiopia (4691, 97.2%); Sierra Leone (6779, 95.7%); Andorra (7544, 92.3%); Central African Republic (16972, 62.2%); Iraq (50585, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): GU (165, 82.2%); NC (234, 78.6%); MS (241, 54.8%); SD (1245, 96.8%); AR (2302, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): PE (8, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.6%); NT (14, 25.0%); YT (14, 28.6%); NB (53, 26.9%)

Among my regions of interest, the only ones that set new records for daily case counts were Austria (6,901) and Romania (8,651).

I am marking the recording of our 30,000th case this week in Toronto, because that's 1% of our estimated population. We're at 29,960 as of this afternoon, which means at our recent rate of 300-400 new official cases per day, we must be well past the 30,000 mark as I write this. I'm pretty sure the actual number is well over 100,000 based on the inconsistencies among all the different official statistics we see, and the knowledge that testing has not kept up with demand in months. On the other hand, I also know that we do not have exactly 3 million people in the city of Toronto: official estimates range from 2.7 to 3.1 million, and of course the 11 of us that died today bring us up to 1,393 Torontonians dead of COVID-19, which puts a clear lower limit on how accurate population statistics can be. So 30,000 and 3,000,000 are round numbers, and the fact that we've reached this point at this time tells us roughly how we're doing compared to other cities and countries around the world. If we were a country, we would be Honduras, Monaco, or Saudi Arabia, who today joined the 30% of countries who have reached the shameful 1% cumulatively infected level.

There are seven active cases in our neighbourhood now, reported on October 22, 29, 30, 30, 30, November 1, 1. They are (not respectively) in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. Up until a month ago, every case in our neighbourhood came had a known source of infection. Since then, none have. We no longer have any idea if anywhere is safe; the situation is generally true across the city, and it is worsening. Last month, 53% of cases had no known sources; this month so far, it's 70%.

Today's chart shows Toronto neighbourhood data. It's a little darker than past weeks, because I've had to add in the unknown cases, which were a negligible proportion of the total until September. You can interact with it here.

School case numbers in the province as a whole are steady or even dropping slightly, as is the case in Toronto. In Ottawa, active daily cases are down into the 80s and 90s, where they were in the 90s and 100s last week; in Brampton and Mississauga the numbers continue to rise.

Peel set a new daily record with 299 cases reported today; the Central East region of which it is a part was one case short of tying its record, with 474.

Currently, the Toronto health units with the highest number of new cases per 100K capita in the past seven days are: Peel (102), Toronto (76), York (53), Ottawa (49), Halton (44), Eastern Ontario (38), Durham (36), Brant (35).

Stay safe.

2020-11-03

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (63HI→64HI), Austria (77HI→76HI), Italy (82HI→82HI), France (88HI→89HI), Romania (145HI→137HI), U.K. (138HI→142HI), Spain (156HI→157HI), Sweden (185HI→159HI), Malta (175HI→177HI), U.S. (298HI→290HI), Alabama (339HI→339HI), California (615HI→599HI), New York (652HI→639HI), Louisiana (734HI→711HI), Singapore (31558HI→30272HI), Toronto (2→1), Denmark (8→6), Germany (14→13), Iran (22→21), Canada (37→33), Norway (39→36), Ontario (54→51), Turkey (132→130), Japan (371→368), South Korea (715→703), New Zealand (1901→1621), Thailand (3118→2693), China (12619→14064)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Romania, Sweden, U.S., Denmark, Canada

Worse: Norway, Ontario, Turkey

The same: Austria, Toronto, Germany, Iran

Better: Poland, Italy, France, U.K., Spain, Malta, Alabama

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (183→271, 13.3%), Mexico (5308→352, 84.9%), Australia (514→380, 14.1%), Indonesia (657→566, 83.8%), India (777→595, 53.2%), Brazil (new→1070, 48.8%), South Africa (new→1167, 29.2%), Malaysia (4591→3337, 95.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Bhutan (14, 35.3%); Botswana (14, 55.3%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 75.3%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 16.7%); Haiti (14, 47.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Nicaragua (14, 77.6%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 19.0%); San Marino (14, 58.1%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Somalia (14, 56.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (26, 1.9%); Senegal (28, 5.7%); Gambia (29, 20.3%); Cameroon (32, 12.5%); Gabon (36, 5.7%); Mauritius (45, 11.1%); Eswatini (52, 9.6%); Trinidad and Tobago (52, 33.4%); Niger (57, 2.4%); Benin (63, 22.7%); Djibouti (78, 2.2%); Ecuador (92, 25.1%); Holy See (99, 48.2%); United Arab Emirates (99, 15.5%); Barbados (110, 17.3%); Rwanda (112, 9.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (118, 9.6%); Mauritania (141, 3.8%); Philippines (142, 35.3%); Zimbabwe (142, 7.2%); Nigeria (170, 15.4%); Burkina Faso (175, 24.0%); Burma (186, 77.4%); Yemen (190, 15.0%); Georgia (236, 80.2%); Oman (251, 37.4%); Bahrain (259, 35.7%); Iceland (296, 72.6%); Uruguay (351, 88.3%); Maldives (380, 28.2%); Tajikistan (390, 35.7%); Mali (423, 91.9%); Peru (505, 22.3%); Eritrea (515, 39.1%); Cabo Verde (572, 59.4%); Argentina (590, 88.0%); Panama (616, 76.8%); Bahamas (619, 89.5%); Venezuela (671, 35.6%); Namibia (743, 38.1%); Guatemala (887, 37.0%); Qatar (889, 8.7%); Bolivia (967, 50.6%); Kuwait (1059, 51.3%); Ireland (1113, 95.5%); Nepal (1202, 80.4%); Saudi Arabia (1668, 12.6%); Uzbekistan (2273, 23.2%); El Salvador (2390, 33.0%); South Sudan (3343, 69.6%); Ethiopia (3464, 96.9%); Malawi (3846, 20.5%); Iraq (4512, 98.0%); Sierra Leone (4514, 95.5%); Czechia (4668, 93.7%); Paraguay (5076, 99.0%); Honduras (6499, 98.4%); Bangladesh (7832, 74.4%); Dominican Republic (29812, 58.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): GU (146, 78.0%); NC (228, 72.7%); MS (232, 51.7%); MP (254, 87.6%); TN (853, 61.6%); SD (3583, 93.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): PE (9, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.6%); NT (14, 25.0%); YT (14, 28.6%); NB (55, 27.9%)

Canada set a record today with 4,672 new cases, as did Iran (8,932), and Romania (7,733).

Today's chart breaks down Canada's active cases by province and territory. B.C., Alberta aand Sasakatchewan are growing at about 30% weekly, Manitoba at 56%, Ontario at 10%, Quebec 4%. The Atlantic and the North are back in recovery, except for Nova Scotia, which soared in the past week from 6 to 16 active cases.

Closer to home, Halton region set a new daily record with 86 cases reported today, surpassing a previous record of 59. This helped Ontario set a new provincial record of 1,050 new cases, bringing us to 8,295 confirmed active cases, 3,498 of whom are in Toronto.

Stay safe.

2020-11-02

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Poland (0→68HI), Austria (68HI→71HI), Italy (76HI→82HI), France (87HI→87HI), U.K. (138HI→147HI), Romania (134HI→151HI), Spain (144HI→161HI), Sweden (176HI→176HI), U.S. (274HI→278HI), Alabama (301HI→301HI), California (586HI→591HI), New York (607HI→674HI), Louisiana (887HI→887HI), Brazil (772HI→1001HI), South Africa (1417HI→1732HI), Toronto (3→2), Denmark (8→8), Germany (13→13), Iran (23→22), Canada (39→37), Norway (44→38), Ontario (52→52), Turkey (134→134), Japan (333→342), South Korea (679→744), New Zealand (1562→1789), China (16604→13543)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Poland, Norway

Worse: Canada

The same: Toronto, Iran

Better: Austria, Italy, France, U.K., Sweden, U.S., Alabama, Denmark, Germany, Ontario, Turkey, Japan

Much better: Romania, Spain

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (238→183, 13.4%), Australia (585→514, 14.3%), Indonesia (1221→657, 85.5%), Singapore (new→666, 0.5%), Malta (682→741, 95.1%), India (816→777, 55.2%), Thailand (506→2982, 9.2%), Malaysia (new→4591, 96.6%), Mexico (new→5308, 94.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (70): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 33.3%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Nicaragua (14, 77.6%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 23.8%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Somalia (14, 56.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Holy See (18, 48.2%); Niger (28, 2.2%); Gambia (29, 20.3%); Cameroon (32, 12.5%); Senegal (38, 7.9%); Mauritius (51, 11.5%); Eswatini (61, 9.7%); Benin (63, 22.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (74, 39.2%); Djibouti (87, 2.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (88, 9.0%); Gabon (88, 8.2%); Rwanda (97, 8.9%); Barbados (110, 17.3%); Ecuador (111, 23.9%); United Arab Emirates (118, 17.2%); Philippines (120, 32.6%); Mauritania (121, 3.8%); Burkina Faso (135, 26.0%); Zimbabwe (181, 7.1%); Eritrea (198, 37.0%); Georgia (201, 79.4%); Bahrain (238, 37.3%); Bhutan (244, 34.1%); Liechtenstein (253, 91.0%); Oman (268, 37.8%); Maldives (272, 28.1%); Suriname (285, 3.3%); Taiwan (285, 12.5%); Tajikistan (352, 36.4%); Mali (359, 92.3%); Venezuela (510, 35.7%); Uzbekistan (522, 22.2%); Burma (598, 90.4%); Argentina (675, 90.1%); Panama (729, 78.3%); Qatar (785, 8.8%); Bolivia (868, 51.0%); El Salvador (875, 33.0%); Bahamas (883, 91.7%); Guyana (906, 73.3%); Nepal (926, 80.9%); Guatemala (928, 37.0%); Nigeria (985, 18.2%); Mozambique (1023, 71.5%); Ireland (1113, 95.6%); Andorra (1554, 97.4%); Cabo Verde (1818, 65.0%); Saudi Arabia (2098, 12.7%); Iraq (4596, 97.4%); Ethiopia (4914, 97.5%); Dominican Republic (6371, 58.9%); Kuwait (12253, 51.8%); Bangladesh (32464, 74.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (3): MP (198, 92.0%); NC (226, 67.1%); MS (232, 49.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): PE (10, 0.0%); NT (14, 50.0%); NL (25, 1.6%); YT (51, 71.4%); NB (77, 31.7%)

Today's active school case count in Ontario of 886 was a two-case increase over the weekend, the lowest increase we have seen since September. I'll wait until I see the rest of the week's figures before I start feeling optimistic though: we've seen a steady 15% week-on-week increase in the last two weeks.

Malta saw a record 218 new cases today, as did France (53,238), Spain (55,019) and Norway (704).

Today's chart is a weekly update on how each country is doing. In the past week, Europe's supraexponential growth has taken it from 4% daily to 4.5% daily increases in active cases. The odd jog in South America appears to be a matter of someone (unclear if it is the government or JHU) forgetting to update recovery counts for a few weeks, then adding them all back in at once.

Toronto is still on track to hit the 1% mark on Wednesday, when we will have managed to let 1 in 100 of our population get infected by a well studied, well understood respiratory virus with a significant fatality rate and serious risk of complications, by not pressuring our governments or our fellow citizens to take appropriate action. More than 1,300 have died so far, and if we do not act to stop the pandemic, we will lose ten times more within a year. And if it turns out that there is no more long-term immunity to this coronavirus than to the more common ones that we've seen before, then we will keep losing thousands of people every year.

Stay safe.

2020-11-01

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (72HI→68HI), Italy (77HI→76HI), France (90HI→87HI), Romania (131HI→134HI), U.K. (134HI→138HI), Spain (144HI→144HI), Sweden (176HI→176HI), U.S. (291HI→274HI), Alabama (339HI→301HI), California (585HI→586HI), New York (624HI→607HI), Brazil (621HI→772HI), Louisiana (644HI→887HI), South Africa (1451HI→1417HI), Singapore (24217HI→26489HI), Poland (1→0), Toronto (4→3), Denmark (11→8), Germany (14→13), Iran (24→23), Canada (38→39), Norway (41→44), Ontario (55→52), Mexico (51→53), Malaysia (96→92), Turkey (131→134), Japan (347→333), South Korea (665→679), New Zealand (1561→1562), China (13639→16604)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, U.S., Alabama, Denmark, Malaysia, Japan

Worse: France, Ontario

The same: Italy, Poland, Toronto, Germany, Iran

Better: Romania, U.K., Spain, Sweden, Canada, Norway, Mexico, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (229→238, 14.7%), Thailand (595→506, 9.2%), Australia (676→585, 14.4%), Malta (15595→682, 94.7%), India (781→816, 56.1%), Indonesia (945→1221, 87.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Barbados (14, 17.3%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Cameroon (14, 29.9%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 33.3%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Nicaragua (14, 77.6%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.0%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Somalia (14, 56.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Holy See (18, 48.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (23, 18.2%); Gambia (29, 20.3%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (37, 19.0%); Senegal (44, 9.9%); Eswatini (54, 9.6%); Gabon (55, 8.2%); Niger (69, 2.7%); Bhutan (73, 29.4%); Taiwan (77, 12.5%); Mauritius (87, 13.0%); United Arab Emirates (95, 19.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (112, 45.9%); Suriname (115, 3.2%); Burkina Faso (135, 26.0%); Mauritania (138, 3.9%); Liechtenstein (139, 82.8%); Mozambique (157, 68.1%); Zimbabwe (157, 8.1%); Oman (184, 43.7%); Eritrea (198, 37.0%); Georgia (219, 82.8%); Bahrain (228, 37.3%); Guyana (249, 70.7%); Finland (310, 88.9%); Tajikistan (314, 37.0%); Maldives (350, 29.1%); Cabo Verde (351, 62.9%); Andorra (380, 92.1%); Djibouti (385, 2.5%); Mali (405, 91.5%); Iceland (452, 78.3%); Luxembourg (455, 92.0%); Chad (479, 17.8%); Uzbekistan (491, 22.3%); Bahamas (569, 91.7%); Venezuela (614, 36.3%); Nigeria (778, 18.3%); Bolivia (817, 51.7%); Nepal (851, 82.6%); Panama (897, 79.6%); Qatar (952, 8.9%); Zambia (994, 18.0%); Peru (1047, 25.9%); El Salvador (1149, 33.4%); Ireland (1563, 97.3%); Burma (1767, 94.1%); Saudi Arabia (2138, 12.8%); Benin (2186, 22.3%); Argentina (2340, 92.9%); Lesotho (7265, 84.9%); Ethiopia (15286, 97.9%); Haiti (44322, 47.3%); Bangladesh (412343, 74.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): MP (198, 92.0%); TN (877, 61.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): PE (11, 0.0%); NT (14, 50.0%); YT (14, 71.4%); NL (25, 1.6%); NB (58, 33.7%)

Today's chart shows the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported each day in each region of Ontario, smoothed out by averaging over the last seven days. It shows that something happened, especially in Toronto, around the beginning of October; an interesting question is what.

Since that was about two weeks after restrictions were finally placed on the size of private gathering sizes, one might think that it means that those restrictions were working.

Or since it was about the time that restaurants and bars were closed except for takeout service, you might think that those measures had somehow taken premature effect.

The problem is that our reported new cases are neither increasing nor decreasing: the new cases in September were trending upward and moderately correlated to time, while the new cases in October were trending only slightly upward and not correlated at all with time. This is not what accurate epidemic data generally looks like: there might be a small plateau as you reach a peak before coming back down again, and you could hit a long plateau if you reached an eventual "herd immunity" equilibrium; but otherwise if you have a big R-value you get exponential growth, and if you have a small R-value you are bending the curve back down to recovery.

When your curve flatlines, it means that some part of your reporting system has failed. This points another finger at the province's decision in late September to restrict access to testing. It's not as though testing is accurate to begin with: at the best of times, PCR testing has a false negative rate of 20%. But preventing people from even getting tests when they think they may have been exposed, or when they want to avoid infecting someone else, has left us in a situation where we can only guess at how many people are infected (4-5 times more than confirmed) and how long it will take before the spread dies down (if nothing is done, not before next summer).

Toronto reported 344 new cases today, bringing us up to a record 3,312 active cases.

Stay safe.

2020-10-31

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Austria (86HI→84HI), Italy (87HI→84HI), France (85HI→91HI), U.K. (131HI→135HI), Romania (154HI→152HI), Spain (154HI→154HI), Sweden (208HI→185HI), U.S. (313HI→307HI), Alabama (248HI→317HI), California (600HI→621HI), New York (729HI→698HI), South Africa (1554HI→1555HI), Poland (2→1), Toronto (5→4), Denmark (11→11), Germany (16→15), Iran (27→26), Canada (38→37), Norway (53→48), Ontario (55→54), Mexico (56→55), Malaysia (71→80), Turkey (135→134), Japan (387→382), South Korea (787→737), New Zealand (1205→1897), China (15939→14867)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, U.S., Norway

Worse: Austria, Italy, Romania

The same: Poland, Toronto, Germany, Iran, Canada, Ontario, Mexico, Turkey

Better: France, U.K., Spain, Denmark

Much better: Alabama, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (87→14, 0.5%), Brazil (84→80, 50.9%), Israel (156→229, 15.7%), Louisiana (877→351, 26.2%), Thailand (193→595, 9.0%), Australia (new→676, 14.5%), India (588→781, 57.2%), Indonesia (1387→945, 88.4%), Malta (new→15595, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Cameroon (14, 29.9%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 33.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 68.2%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 11.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.0%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Somalia (14, 56.5%); Suriname (14, 3.3%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (15, 19.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (23, 18.2%); Holy See (23, 53.6%); Barbados (33, 21.2%); Senegal (54, 12.4%); Gabon (55, 8.2%); Niger (69, 2.7%); Taiwan (77, 12.5%); Mauritius (87, 13.0%); United Arab Emirates (92, 20.2%); Gambia (106, 38.4%); Cabo Verde (119, 60.2%); Djibouti (127, 2.6%); Burkina Faso (139, 27.2%); Mozambique (149, 65.5%); Liechtenstein (152, 74.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (188, 52.1%); Oman (192, 43.7%); Eritrea (198, 37.0%); Zimbabwe (220, 8.3%); Maldives (248, 29.8%); Finland (291, 84.9%); Tajikistan (294, 37.6%); Bahrain (334, 39.9%); Guyana (360, 72.2%); Colombia (371, 36.8%); Nepal (372, 82.2%); Nigeria (392, 18.8%); Mauritania (454, 4.4%); Venezuela (463, 36.5%); Andorra (471, 92.7%); Bhutan (479, 34.1%); Georgia (483, 89.2%); Mali (503, 91.2%); Yemen (521, 16.7%); Bolivia (720, 52.2%); Chile (816, 11.2%); Bahamas (905, 95.8%); Iceland (933, 79.6%); Qatar (999, 9.0%); El Salvador (1151, 33.4%); Lesotho (1497, 84.9%); Panama (1514, 81.5%); Haiti (1788, 47.3%); Uzbekistan (1961, 23.0%); Saudi Arabia (2259, 12.8%); Eswatini (5796, 14.6%); Burma (6465, 95.4%); South Sudan (9328, 69.5%); Malawi (11202, 20.0%); Ireland (17023, 99.4%); Peru (35376, 25.9%); Bangladesh (48311, 75.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (3): MP (73, 80.3%); TN (1422, 62.3%); OK (1820, 94.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): PE (12, 0.0%); NL (25, 1.6%); YT (27, 71.4%); NB (47, 36.5%)

I made some internal housekeeping corrections to my Google Sheet, as noted in comments at the tops of the main sheet columns, to help automate input of daily data from Wikipedia. In a few cases, I needed to adjust the existing data forward or backward by one day.

Hamilton tied its record for new cases in a day with 41, as did Niagara (23), Grey Bruce (6), and Porcupine (2). All regions in Ontario are now either stable (northern regions only) or increasing in new cases seen week on week. The provincial doubling time for new cases was 5 weeks last week, a substantial acceleration from the 10 weeks seen in the previous two weeks.

Today's chart is a weekly update on school cases vs. the general population. School cases did not continue on up past the general population, so hooray for teachers and school staff for keeping the levels of contagion in schools to where they are in the general community. You can interact with the chart here.

Toronto had a second-wave record of 28 new hospital admissions, pushing us up to 146 beds occupied. Let's see, 28/3 (9.3) of those patients are likely to die, and if 60% of COVID-19 fatalities occur in hospital, then those patients represent 28/3/.6 (15.6) fatalities within their daily cohort. If our IFR is 0.5% now, then those fatalities came from a new daily cohort of 28/3/.6/.005 or 3,100 new cases. The city reported an official new case count of 309 today, which is just about an order of magnitude lower than what the hospital admissions would suggest. What could the problem be?

First of all, it usually takes several days for a case to make its way to hospital, so we should be comparing 3,100 not with today's 309, but with one of the smaller numbers from earlier. That doesn't help.

We could have had a bad day for hospital admissions, and a good day for new cases. We should be comparing seven-day averages, and when we do the 3,100 drops down to about 1,400. Better than 3,100, but that's like the number of kids who would come trick-or-treating at my godson's house on Hallowe'en, if Hallowe'en were still a thing. And 16 dead bodies is more than I've seen in the whole of my fairly sheltered life so far, and that's just for today.

So that leaves a factor of four or five of people who aren't getting recorded as having COVID-19, because they don't know to get tested, or they want to get tested but aren't allowed to under current testing rules. While I agree that there's not a lot of point in widespread testing when you have so many people infected that you can't trace the spread, that's also the time when everyone has to stay home from work and school until the numbers drop back down to safer ones again.

Stay safe.

2020-10-30

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (85HI→85HI), Austria (95HI→86HI), Italy (1→87HI), U.K. (132HI→131HI), Romania (158HI→154HI), Spain (159HI→154HI), Malta (185HI→201HI), Sweden (232HI→208HI), Alabama (226HI→248HI), U.S. (322HI→313HI), California (558HI→600HI), New York (729HI→729HI), South Africa (1554HI→1554HI), Poland (3→2), Toronto (6→5), Denmark (13→11), Germany (17→16), Iran (29→27), Canada (40→38), Norway (58→53), Ontario (56→55), Mexico (56→56), Malaysia (71→71), Turkey (136→135), Japan (387→387), South Korea (787→787), Australia (4093→4303), China (15939→15939)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, Italy, Romania, Spain, Sweden, U.S., Norway

Worse: Denmark, Iran, Canada

The same: U.K., Poland, Toronto, Germany, Ontario, Turkey

Better: France, Malta, Mexico, Malaysia

Much better: Alabama

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Brazil (82→84, 51.3%), Singapore (66→87, 0.5%), Israel (146→156, 15.4%), Thailand (242→193, 9.0%), New Zealand (14→232, 7.3%), India (552→588, 58.4%), Louisiana (621→877, 26.2%), Indonesia (1178→1387, 91.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 13.6%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Comoros (14, 15.4%); Dominica (14, 64.3%); Eritrea (14, 40.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gambia (14, 50.1%); Grenada (14, 33.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 68.2%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 11.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Mongolia (14, 24.5%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.0%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Somalia (14, 56.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (15, 19.0%); Holy See (23, 53.6%); Burkina Faso (37, 27.4%); Botswana (56, 55.3%); Senegal (60, 13.8%); Zambia (65, 17.5%); Barbados (66, 19.2%); Niger (75, 2.9%); Taiwan (77, 12.5%); Cabo Verde (81, 62.5%); United Arab Emirates (82, 22.0%); Bhutan (106, 35.3%); Gabon (115, 10.8%); Oman (193, 43.7%); Djibouti (194, 2.8%); Finland (197, 78.1%); Peru (210, 24.3%); Guyana (230, 71.6%); Maldives (271, 30.5%); Nepal (287, 83.4%); Tajikistan (290, 38.5%); Colombia (292, 39.4%); Bahrain (320, 40.7%); Chad (350, 17.2%); Mozambique (403, 70.8%); Nigeria (429, 18.9%); Chile (431, 10.9%); Trinidad and Tobago (470, 58.3%); Yemen (521, 16.7%); Bolivia (637, 52.9%); Bahamas (646, 94.4%); Venezuela (686, 37.6%); Iceland (865, 80.4%); Lesotho (1166, 84.0%); El Salvador (1364, 33.5%); Haiti (1788, 47.3%); Jamaica (2061, 85.2%); Qatar (2114, 9.1%); Saudi Arabia (2350, 12.9%); Panama (2900, 82.3%); Montenegro (4944, 83.2%); Andorra (6442, 94.3%); Ethiopia (6688, 98.2%); South Sudan (9428, 70.2%); Guatemala (9762, 38.6%); Bangladesh (11914, 74.9%); Belize (35029, 99.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): MP (245, 93.4%); OK (837, 94.3%); TN (1179, 64.9%); HI (2772, 65.3%); WV (4193, 97.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NL (14, 2.1%); NT (14, 50.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); YT (14, 71.4%); NS (21, 0.9%); NB (38, 39.4%)

51 countries have now reached the 1% cumulative confirmed case level that I thought no one would reach.

The U.S., India and Brazil currently account for just over half of the 43 million active cases in the world. The next eleven countries make up the third quarter: Russia, Argentina, France, Spain, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, United Kingdom, South Africa, Iran, Italy.

Germany set a new national record with 19,366 new cases. Likewise Italy (31,079), the U.S. (86,898), Norway (506) and Austria (5,627).

Across Canada this week according to CMAJ figures, active cases were up in B.C. 22% to 2,399, 40% to 4,921 in Alberta, 39% to 707 in Saskatchewan, 33% to 2,409 in Manitoba, amd 14% to 10,142 in Ontario. Quebec improved by six cases to 9,188, New Brunswick by 40 to 41, P.E.I. by two to 1, Newfoundland and Labrador by five to 4, N.W.T by one to 2. Yukon was up 3 cases to 5, and saw its first fatality. Nunavut is still free of COVID-19.

Here are my thoughts on the https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/COVID-19-Updated-Modelling-Oct.-29-2020.pdf document published this week by the provincial government's "Science Table", and used as a basis for optimistic statements by the premier.

"Current projections show slower growth, similar to Michigan" shows a graph that shows our number of new cases per day since September 18, and that it has been similar but slightly greater than the corresponding numbers in the state of Michigan. It then makes three "predictions": that growth could miraculously stop at the lowest recently observed level of about 800 cases/day, or at the highest (1,000 cases/day), or that it could stop for no reason at 1,200 cases/day. It does not appear to take into account any planned changes in government policy, the tendency for respiratory diseases to worsen in winter due to low humidity aerosolizing what would be droplets in the summer, or the tendency for respiratory diseases to worsen in winter due to Vitamin D deficiency.

"Positivity rates continue to increase in older age groups with significant health and health system consequences" has a title which misleadingly suggests that positivity rates are not increasing in all demographic categories, which they are.

"Growth in hospitalizations is slowing, but spillover risk persists": eyeballing this chart, it's really hard to see this as anything other than a straight linear increase since September 12, or to see this decline in growth. If you try to fit a straight line to the last three weeks, you get 5.1 new cases/day with an R-squared of 0.894, and the three weeks before that 6.9 new cases/day and 0.957. 5.1 does look better than 6.9, but it's cherry-picking: you get a better fit over the whole six-week period with a rate of 6.5/day and an R-squared of 0.978.

"Slower growth means that risk to ICUs is lower": the title is either vacuously true or has a false premise. The note "Ontario ICU occupancy predicted to exceed lower threshold of 150 beds within 30 days in only the worst case scenario" misleadingly suggests that the "worst case scenario" is (1) the worst likely case, and (2) not the most likely case.

"Cases in LTC continue to increase with cumulative mortality up substantially (85 deaths since August 15)": no argument here.

"Substantial variation in new cases per 100,000 population by PHU": It's tempting to look at the various events in the timeline (schools opening, social gathering limitations, etc.) to see what effect they had on curves, but I don't think the new case metric is reliable enough for this purpose, given the restrictions that have been placed on access to testing. At best, they serve as an indication of how bad things have to get for certain measures to be put into effect.

"Substantial variation in percent positivity by PHU": It's not clear to me what use the test positivity statistic has. When it's high, you either have too many infected people, or you're not testing broadly enough to detect all the cases, but it's hard to tell when it's which.

"Substantial variation in % 2-day test turnaround by PHU": The chart shows that when they stopped letting just anyone get tested, they were largely able to clear their testing backlog within three weeks. I do not see how we are going to get out of this pandemic though without increasing matching our testing capacity to our testing needs.

"Substantial variation in % of cases with no epidemiological link by PHU" It's scary that we have no idea where 70% of new cases in Toronto are coming from, but further confirmation of my estimate that three quarters of our cases are going unreported.

"Changes in outbreak location suggest impact from shifts to modified Stage 2": I would read this as: in September, we sent the children of LTC workers back to school to catch COVID-19, and in October, the LTC workers brought it into their workplaces. Also, the government's compassionate decision to allow each LTC resident to designate one essential visitor has dramatically increased the number of new cases at the LTCs that I follow.

"Substantial variation in source of outbreak by PHU": We could reduce transmission in Toronto by half by closing schools, restaurants, and bars. Instead, the federal government is asking us individually to reduce our contacts by 25%, and implicitly to trust that everyone else will do so.

"Access to care continues well below 2019 volumes": No kidding. What surgeon would in good conscience perform non-emergency surgery under current conditions?

"Key Findings: pandemic spread continues according to several indicators but is slowing": No. There is no indication that it is slowing away from a worst-case scenario, and no indication that the government's so-called worst-case scenario is the worst likely case. Winter is coming, and people will crowd together in insufficiently ventilated spaces full of droplets that dry indoor air has evaporated down to long-lasting aerosols, and the numbers won't get better until everyone has to stay home for a few weeks.

Today's chart is a new one, and I'm not yet entirely satisfied with the design, but I've taken it as far as I can go. It just shows all the active cases in Europe by country per million capita, not stacked. Some countries that were in the news a lot early on didn't have it anywhere near as bad as what's going on now (or more likely, only reported a small fraction of their active cases). Some seemed to have learned from their mistakes. Some haven't. The problem is that it's too much information, and I'm using a public visualisation tool that isn't quite customizable enough. It seems to work best if you hover over each line to isolate it, but that's hard to do in a static image.

It's better if you interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-10-29

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (85HI→85HI), Austria (0→95HI), U.K. (132HI→132HI), Romania (163HI→158HI), Spain (160HI→159HI), Malta (182HI→185HI), Alabama (229HI→226HI), Sweden (264HI→232HI), U.S. (331HI→322HI), California (580HI→558HI), New York (780HI→729HI), South Africa (1537HI→1554HI), Italy (1→1), Poland (4→3), Toronto (7→6), Denmark (13→13), Germany (19→17), Iran (32→29), Canada (41→40), Mexico (55→56), Ontario (57→56), Norway (67→58), Malaysia (67→71), Turkey (139→136), Japan (411→387), South Korea (744→787), China (20097→15939)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, Romania, Sweden, U.S., Norway

Worse: Alabama, Germany, Iran, Turkey

The same: Spain, Poland, Toronto, Canada, Ontario

Better: France, U.K., Malta, Italy, Denmark, Mexico, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (171→14, 7.5%), Singapore (71→66, 0.5%), Brazil (90→82, 49.9%), Israel (154→146, 16.6%), Thailand (793→242, 9.2%), India (518→552, 59.3%), Louisiana (2252→621, 25.3%), Indonesia (958→1178, 91.7%), Australia (new→22724, 15.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (74): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Fiji (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 13.6%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Comoros (14, 15.4%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 73.2%); Dominica (14, 64.3%); Eritrea (14, 40.6%); Grenada (14, 33.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 68.2%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); Laos (14, 15.4%); Madagascar (14, 11.6%); Marshall Islands (14, 100.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 7.7%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (20, 23.8%); Burkina Faso (43, 30.9%); Botswana (50, 52.0%); Zambia (60, 16.9%); Barbados (66, 19.2%); Senegal (68, 15.7%); United Arab Emirates (72, 23.1%); Chad (76, 16.2%); Burundi (94, 39.2%); Cabo Verde (105, 66.1%); Suriname (107, 3.5%); Taiwan (107, 13.2%); Gabon (115, 10.8%); Oman (176, 43.7%); Bhutan (179, 36.5%); Finland (189, 74.3%); Ecuador (198, 33.8%); Philippines (221, 46.9%); Chile (245, 10.4%); Niger (247, 3.3%); Peru (289, 24.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (295, 58.5%); Nepal (301, 84.9%); Nigeria (307, 18.9%); Tajikistan (322, 39.5%); Djibouti (338, 2.8%); Zimbabwe (394, 8.2%); Yemen (414, 16.6%); Eswatini (477, 14.2%); Bolivia (564, 53.6%); Bahrain (596, 43.1%); Maldives (618, 31.3%); Guyana (679, 75.7%); Bahamas (686, 95.2%); Jamaica (716, 84.7%); Venezuela (736, 38.4%); Uzbekistan (901, 23.7%); Lesotho (922, 84.0%); Montenegro (938, 80.8%); Guatemala (1040, 38.5%); Haiti (1440, 47.2%); South Sudan (1496, 69.6%); Uruguay (1525, 95.7%); Iceland (1641, 84.7%); Qatar (2288, 9.2%); Saudi Arabia (2509, 12.9%); Mozambique (3227, 73.9%); Colombia (3232, 40.9%); Argentina (3783, 97.1%); Ethiopia (4594, 98.4%); Bangladesh (5479, 74.8%); Panama (6864, 83.0%); Belize (8769, 99.6%); El Salvador (59652, 34.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (7): NC (366, 88.6%); OK (651, 93.9%); AR (1277, 97.0%); WV (2139, 92.7%); MS (2158, 58.4%); TN (26667, 64.5%); WA (57679, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NL (14, 2.1%); NT (14, 50.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); YT (14, 71.4%); NS (21, 0.9%); NB (38, 39.4%)

My database updates stalled today again as I discovered that my source of static data about countries had omitted Marshall Islands, the latest nation to be touched by COVID-19. Marshall Islands had closed their borders in March, but permitted U.S. troops to visit a leased base on Kwajalein Atoll since June, and now two of those troops are in quarantine with COVID-19.

In his as yet unpublished autobiography, my father recalls stopping briefly at an airstrip on Kwajalein Atoll in 1945 en route from his home in Washington D.C. by train to Chicago and San Francisco, then by plane to Honolulu, Johnston Island, Kwajalein Atoll, Guam, Tacloban, and ultimately to join Gen. MacArthur's staff at Tolosa. At Kwajalein Airfield, as he has often recalled, he was greeted by a sign that read "Welcome to Kwaj! Kwajalein Atoll. No trees atoll. No girls atoll. No nothing atoll. Welcome to Kwaj!" He didn't spend long there.

Germany saw a record number of new cases today (18,733), as did Italy (24,988), Iran (8,293), Toronto (431), Austria (4,453), and Romania (6,481).

The Ontario government has been pushing the idea that we are doing better now, because our growth rate is slowing. We are doing better in the sense that doing badly but not as badly as we were doing before; or to put it in concrete terms our new cases were doubling every two weeks a month ago, and now they're doubling every four weeks. Or, because deaths lag new cases, only 47 people died unnecessarily of COVID-19 in the past week, instead of 56 in a week like a month ago. I can't think of a government policy that kills about 50 people a week as being a positive one, even if it's moved the needle from a little above 50 to a little below 50. Or one that has seen a record number of new cases in Toronto.

Toronto's 431 new cases and 4 deaths pushed us to a new record 3,287 active cases (likely representing 15,000+ actual cases, or a 1 in 200 active case rate). Ontario's 934 new cases and 10 deaths gave us a new record of 7,578 active cases. Confirmed active school cases dipped a bit in the province from 933 to 918, but rose in the city from 299 to 309.

Today's chart shows the age ranges of Toronto cases, which have continued to converge as the disease spreads indiscriminately throughout the entire population.

Stay safe.

2020-10-28

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (89HI→86HI), U.K. (126HI→127HI), Malta (153HI→161HI), Spain (166HI→161HI), Romania (167HI→162HI), Alabama (248HI→248HI), Sweden (364HI→294HI), U.S. (344HI→339HI), Louisiana (501HI→501HI), California (590HI→593HI), New York (830HI→830HI), South Africa (1512HI→1508HI), Austria (2→1), Italy (3→2), Poland (7→6), Toronto (9→8), Denmark (20→14), Germany (23→21), Iran (36→34), Canada (43→41), Ontario (57→57), Malaysia (65→67), Norway (84→73), Turkey (145→142), Japan (434→427), South Korea (755→755), Australia (3289→3795), China (25198→20097)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Romania, Sweden, U.S., Denmark, Norway

Worse: France, Germany, Iran, Canada, Turkey

The same: Austria, Italy, Poland, Toronto

Better: U.K., Malta, Alabama, Ontario, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (14→71, 0.5%), Brazil (new→90, 50.5%), Israel (135→154, 17.4%), New Zealand (new→171, 7.1%), India (621→669, 61.5%), Mexico (new→721, 90.6%), Thailand (new→793, 9.6%), Indonesia (31317→958, 91.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (66): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Benin (14, 22.6%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Comoros (14, 15.4%); Eritrea (14, 40.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 68.2%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Malawi (14, 20.0%); Mauritania, Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (16, 23.8%); Barbados (40, 17.3%); Burkina Faso (45, 30.9%); Botswana (50, 52.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (76, 2.2%); Zambia (84, 18.5%); Chad (87, 18.5%); Senegal (91, 18.4%); Cabo Verde (93, 68.3%); Chile (93, 11.0%); Burundi (101, 38.3%); United Arab Emirates (101, 27.8%); Djibouti (109, 2.6%); Ecuador (146, 28.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (174, 11.4%); Uruguay (201, 87.5%); Philippines (215, 45.1%); Yemen (215, 16.7%); Niger (247, 3.3%); Taiwan (250, 15.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (263, 60.2%); Nigeria (302, 19.1%); Nepal (328, 87.1%); Rwanda (350, 9.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (379, 7.4%); Tajikistan (379, 40.6%); Jamaica (395, 84.5%); Gabon (497, 12.8%); Venezuela (523, 38.5%); Iceland (532, 83.7%); Montenegro (549, 79.5%); Maldives (561, 31.7%); Peru (569, 27.0%); Bolivia (598, 54.5%); Guatemala (973, 37.5%); Argentina (982, 95.0%); Bahrain (1164, 43.4%); Bahamas (1198, 97.2%); South Sudan (1711, 69.6%); Haiti (1721, 47.3%); Qatar (2414, 9.2%); Saudi Arabia (2463, 13.0%); Belize (2479, 98.3%); Dominican Republic (2928, 57.9%); Guyana (3439, 79.6%); Bangladesh (3882, 74.9%); Oman (4249, 54.2%); Ethiopia (4368, 98.2%); Lesotho (4696, 85.2%); Sierra Leone (13387, 94.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (4): NC (267, 75.0%); MS (495, 50.3%); WV (943, 86.4%); ND (7387, 97.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NL (14, 2.1%); NT (14, 25.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); NB (61, 52.9%); QC (891, 44.5%)

Italy set a record today for most new cases in a day (21,989), as did Denmark (1,056), Iran (6,968), and Poland (16,300).

School cases in Ontario tracked back up to the same rate as the general population, jumping steeply from 861 to 926.

356 new cases in Toronto pushed us up to 3,094 official active cases, a new record for the sixth consecutive day. Hospitalisation rates are creeping up (doubling every 28 days), and continue to suggest underdetection of cases by a factor of four.

Are you taking your Vitamin D? If you live in Canada, you should be taking Vitamin D supplements whenever you aren't spending at least 15 minutes a day exposing your skin to sunlight, and there was a new study reported in Spain today that said that people who suffer serious symptoms from COVID-19 have a strong tendency to Vitamin D deficiency.

Today's chart is a weekly update on where the continents stand. South America is showing a sharp one-day dip, the result of JHU data showing a surprising 388,340 cases being declared recovered in Brazil today. Europe continues on its supraexponential climb, leaaving North America far behind.

Stay safe.

2020-10-27

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (89HI→86HI), U.K. (126HI→127HI), Malta (153HI→161HI), Spain (166HI→161HI), Romania (167HI→162HI), Alabama (248HI→248HI), Sweden (364HI→294HI), U.S. (344HI→339HI), Louisiana (501HI→501HI), California (590HI→593HI), New York (830HI→830HI), South Africa (1512HI→1508HI), Austria (2→1), Italy (3→2), Poland (7→6), Toronto (9→8), Denmark (20→14), Germany (23→21), Iran (36→34), Canada (43→41), Ontario (57→57), Malaysia (65→67), Norway (84→73), Turkey (145→142), Japan (434→427), South Korea (755→755), Australia (3289→3795), China (25198→20097)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Romania, Sweden, U.S., Denmark, Norway

Worse: France, Germany, Iran, Canada, Turkey

The same: Austria, Italy, Poland, Toronto

Better: U.K., Malta, Alabama, Ontario, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (14→71, 0.5%), Brazil (new→90, 50.5%), Israel (135→154, 17.4%), New Zealand (new→171, 7.1%), India (621→669, 61.5%), Mexico (new→721, 90.6%), Thailand (new→793, 9.6%), Indonesia (31317→958, 91.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (66): Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Benin (14, 22.6%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Comoros (14, 15.4%); Eritrea (14, 40.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 68.2%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Malawi (14, 20.0%); Mauritania, Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (16, 23.8%); Barbados (40, 17.3%); Burkina Faso (45, 30.9%); Botswana (50, 52.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (76, 2.2%); Zambia (84, 18.5%); Chad (87, 18.5%); Senegal (91, 18.4%); Cabo Verde (93, 68.3%); Chile (93, 11.0%); Burundi (101, 38.3%); United Arab Emirates (101, 27.8%); Djibouti (109, 2.6%); Ecuador (146, 28.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (174, 11.4%); Uruguay (201, 87.5%); Philippines (215, 45.1%); Yemen (215, 16.7%); Niger (247, 3.3%); Taiwan (250, 15.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (263, 60.2%); Nigeria (302, 19.1%); Nepal (328, 87.1%); Rwanda (350, 9.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (379, 7.4%); Tajikistan (379, 40.6%); Jamaica (395, 84.5%); Gabon (497, 12.8%); Venezuela (523, 38.5%); Iceland (532, 83.7%); Montenegro (549, 79.5%); Maldives (561, 31.7%); Peru (569, 27.0%); Bolivia (598, 54.5%); Guatemala (973, 37.5%); Argentina (982, 95.0%); Bahrain (1164, 43.4%); Bahamas (1198, 97.2%); South Sudan (1711, 69.6%); Haiti (1721, 47.3%); Qatar (2414, 9.2%); Saudi Arabia (2463, 13.0%); Belize (2479, 98.3%); Dominican Republic (2928, 57.9%); Guyana (3439, 79.6%); Bangladesh (3882, 74.9%); Oman (4249, 54.2%); Ethiopia (4368, 98.2%); Lesotho (4696, 85.2%); Sierra Leone (13387, 94.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (4): NC (267, 75.0%); MS (495, 50.3%); WV (943, 86.4%); ND (7387, 97.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NL (14, 2.1%); NT (14, 25.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); NB (61, 52.9%); QC (891, 44.5%)

Italy set a record today for most new cases in a day (21,989), as did Denmark (1,056), Iran (6,968), and Poland (16,300).

School cases in Ontario tracked back up to the same rate as the general population, jumping steeply from 861 to 926.

356 new cases in Toronto pushed us up to 3,094 official active cases, a new record for the sixth consecutive day. Hospitalisation rates are creeping up (doubling every 28 days), and continue to suggest underdetection of cases by a factor of four.

Are you taking your Vitamin D? If you live in Canada, you should be taking Vitamin D supplements whenever you aren't spending at least 15 minutes a day exposing your skin to sunlight, and there was a new study reported in Spain today that said that people who suffer serious symptoms from COVID-19 have a strong tendency to Vitamin D deficiency.

Today's chart is a weekly update on where the continents stand. South America is showing a sharp one-day dip, the result of JHU data showing a surprising 388,340 cases being declared recovered in Brazil today. Europe continues on its supraexponential climb, leaaving North America far behind.

Stay safe.

2020-10-26

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (93HI→89HI), U.K. (125HI→126HI), Malta (146HI→153HI), Spain (182HI→166HI), Romania (168HI→167HI), Alabama (248HI→248HI), U.S. (352HI→344HI), Sweden (364HI→364HI), Louisiana (600HI→501HI), California (579HI→590HI), Brazil (642HI→642HI), New York (861HI→830HI), South Africa (1439HI→1512HI), Austria (3→2), Italy (4→3), Poland (8→7), Toronto (10→9), Denmark (20→20), Germany (27→23), Iran (39→36), Mexico (57→55), Ontario (59→57), Malaysia (67→65), Norway (93→84), Turkey (147→145), Japan (440→434), South Korea (838→755), New Zealand (877→782), Thailand (2711→2610), Australia (3238→3289), China (26044→25198)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Spain, U.S., Germany, Norway

Worse: Iran, Mexico, Ontario, Malaysia, Turkey

The same: Romania, Austria, Italy, Poland, Toronto

Better: U.K., Malta, Alabama, Sweden, Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (new→14, 0.6%), Israel (138→135, 19.9%), Canada (new→370, 72.7%), India (552→621, 64.2%), Indonesia (new→31317, 94.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (66): Saint Kitts and Nevis (1, 0.0%); Benin (14, 22.6%); Cameroon (14, 24.6%); Eswatini (14, 14.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Gambia (14, 50.1%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 68.2%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mali (14, 99.0%); Nicaragua (14, 72.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 33.3%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (21, 4.5%); Suriname (30, 2.9%); Malawi (34, 20.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (40, 29.5%); Burkina Faso (77, 52.1%); Chile (100, 11.9%); Chad (114, 18.2%); Burundi (124, 37.5%); Eritrea (141, 40.6%); Yemen (153, 17.4%); Senegal (154, 22.1%); Ecuador (188, 23.5%); Philippines (196, 42.1%); Equatorial Guinea (200, 1.4%); United Arab Emirates (207, 33.9%); Iceland (209, 83.2%); Venezuela (237, 39.6%); Papua New Guinea (264, 13.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (297, 62.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (340, 11.2%); Cabo Verde (356, 89.2%); Tunisia (360, 87.8%); Tajikistan (418, 42.5%); Nigeria (470, 20.5%); Uzbekistan (493, 23.6%); Zimbabwe (511, 8.5%); Montenegro (558, 83.8%); Maldives (573, 34.0%); Bolivia (588, 56.5%); Gabon (631, 13.5%); Taiwan (731, 15.5%); Burma (739, 94.5%); Jamaica (821, 86.6%); El Salvador (875, 34.3%); Oman (1031, 53.6%); Andorra (1036, 96.3%); Sierra Leone (1681, 94.5%); Dominican Republic (1725, 58.4%); Saudi Arabia (1861, 13.1%); Haiti (1899, 48.2%); Qatar (1944, 9.2%); Peru (2296, 30.2%); Lesotho (2564, 86.1%); South Sudan (2714, 70.4%); Argentina (3545, 95.7%); Ethiopia (4102, 98.8%); Bangladesh (5686, 75.2%); Honduras (8179, 99.3%); Bahrain (13879, 45.4%); Belize (35064, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): NC (277, 69.4%); MS (440, 46.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (14, 25.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); NL (16, 2.6%); NB (64, 57.7%); QC (1438, 44.6%)

Toronto reported an official count of 284 new cases today, resulting in a net increase of 27 active cases to 2,977.

Ontario reported an official count of 901 cases today, resulting in an increase of 216 active cases to 7,336. Simcoe Muskoka District set a new daily record of 28 cases, and its cases are increasing weekly by 36%. Hamilton set a record with 41 new cases, and are increasing 23% weekly. All regions in the province are now seeing weekly increases in their new case counts, as are all districts in each region with the exception of Timiskaming.

School figures leapt back upward in both Toronto and Ontario after the weekend, but remain slightly lower than in the general population.

Toronto new hospitalizations remain high (36 over two days), suggesting that official case counts are only about a quarter of what would be detected with thorough testing.

Today's chart updates one from a few weeks ago showing the top ten countries in the world by peak active cases counts, arranged to show what proportion of the global total they accounted for throughout the year. Interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-10-25

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (83HI→73HI), U.K. (121HI→134HI), Romania (145HI→156HI), Malta (147HI→160HI), Spain (162HI→162HI), Alabama (203HI→203HI), U.S. (317HI→317HI), Sweden (371HI→371HI), Louisiana (475HI→475HI), California (544HI→505HI), Brazil (548HI→615HI), New York (735HI→735HI), South Africa (1252HI→1327HI), Singapore (19250HI→22894HI), Austria (4→3), Italy (5→4), Poland (8→7), Toronto (10→10), Denmark (24→17), Germany (22→22), Iran (38→36), Canada (47→49), Mexico (50→50), Ontario (61→56), Malaysia (69→68), Norway (77→87), Turkey (145→144), Indonesia (172→179), Japan (377→377), South Korea (744→744), New Zealand (1076→1076), Australia (3489→3168), China (23421→23421)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Denmark, Ontario

Worse: Iran

The same: Austria, Italy, Poland, Malaysia, Turkey

Better: Romania, Malta, Spain, Alabama, U.S., Toronto, Germany, Canada, Mexico, Indonesia

Much better: U.K., Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (138, no new data, 21.9%), Thailand (429, no new data, 10.1%), India (675→552, 65.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (54): Saint Kitts and Nevis (2, 0.0%); Cameroon (14, 24.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 68.2%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 72.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 33.3%); Taiwan (14, 15.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (21, 4.5%); Malawi (34, 20.0%); Suriname (57, 4.0%); Chad (85, 21.0%); Burkina Faso (88, 54.2%); Antigua and Barbuda (91, 29.5%); Yemen (112, 17.4%); Chile (117, 12.1%); Venezuela (127, 40.3%); Eritrea (141, 40.6%); Equatorial Guinea (200, 1.4%); Iceland (209, 86.3%); Senegal (223, 24.0%); Papua New Guinea (264, 13.2%); Lesotho (268, 86.6%); Maldives (326, 32.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (340, 11.2%); Gabon (383, 13.5%); Tajikistan (433, 43.2%); Zimbabwe (452, 8.7%); Montenegro (467, 84.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (467, 65.1%); Tunisia (475, 91.3%); Bolivia (568, 57.8%); El Salvador (586, 34.4%); United Arab Emirates (600, 37.9%); Nigeria (666, 21.2%); Cote d'Ivoire (677, 2.8%); Dominican Republic (802, 57.8%); Andorra (823, 96.3%); Eswatini (859, 14.9%); Cabo Verde (1094, 87.2%); Sierra Leone (1232, 94.9%); Namibia (1523, 38.0%); Saudi Arabia (1588, 13.1%); Uzbekistan (1952, 24.6%); Zambia (2101, 26.4%); Oman (2360, 54.7%); Haiti (2399, 48.2%); Jamaica (2534, 88.9%); Bangladesh (6449, 75.4%); Ethiopia (6642, 99.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): MP (339, 95.3%); WV (658, 94.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): PE (14, 5.0%); NB (72, 69.2%); NL (126, 5.2%)

Ontario saw more than 1,000 new cases today for the first time, as the government pursues a policy of partial closure that is simultaneously causing economic hardship while resulting in the doubling in 28 days of the new case rate. Durham and York also set records for new cases, as did the Central East region collectively.

Toronto's active cases are up to an official, 2,950, and the hospitalisation rate continues to suggest that the actual number is four times larger.

Today's chart is a weekly update comparing school cases to correspondingly scaled active cases in the general population. School cases had started the week overtaking general cases, but with the rapid worsening of the overall situation, the general population has retaken the lead.

Stay safe.

2020-10-24

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (110HI→103HI), Malta (121HI→124HI), U.K. (132HI→129HI), Romania (170HI→167HI), Spain (188HI→182HI), Alabama (395HI→320HI), Sweden (408HI→364HI), U.S. (382HI→376HI), Brazil (656HI→662HI), California (790HI→697HI), New York (882HI→882HI), Singapore (30239HI→29638HI), Austria (9→7), Italy (9→7), Poland (11→10), Toronto (13→13), Denmark (31→26), Germany (35→31), Iran (48→45), Canada (48→47), Mexico (59→59), Ontario (68→66), Malaysia (67→67), Norway (123→110), Turkey (157→153), South Korea (802→802), New Zealand (1126→997), Thailand (2500→2330), Australia (4045→3724)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Spain, Alabama, Sweden, Austria, Italy, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Romania, Iran, Ontario

The same: Poland, Canada

Better: Malta, Toronto, Mexico, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (72→67, 24.3%), Japan (1761→460, 37.2%), India (629→542, 68.3%), China (586→1219, 0.7%), South Africa (432→1377, 28.3%), Indonesia (2982→6578, 95.5%), Louisiana (877→42023, 24.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (60): Saint Kitts and Nevis (4, 0.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (14, 3.0%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 25.0%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 9.8%); Monaco (14, 74.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 33.3%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (36, 19.2%); Mauritius (41, 11.5%); Suriname (43, 4.9%); Antigua and Barbuda (57, 27.3%); Chad (145, 22.8%); Equatorial Guinea (172, 1.2%); Papua New Guinea (179, 13.2%); Liberia (203, 5.4%); Burkina Faso (226, 68.1%); Venezuela (258, 43.9%); Uzbekistan (288, 23.5%); Peru (294, 29.3%); Senegal (301, 26.3%); Eswatini (309, 14.3%); Montenegro (315, 87.3%); Vietnam (320, 13.0%); Gabon (348, 14.1%); United Arab Emirates (367, 40.8%); El Salvador (393, 34.8%); Somalia (396, 54.5%); Maldives (413, 33.8%); Guyana (440, 79.1%); Iceland (459, 92.6%); Tajikistan (482, 44.7%); Bahrain (505, 43.9%); Yemen (516, 20.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (587, 69.2%); Bolivia (590, 59.8%); Colombia (610, 39.5%); Cabo Verde (700, 95.7%); Guinea-Bissau (705, 68.2%); Dominican Republic (717, 58.7%); Haiti (866, 49.6%); Guatemala (921, 38.7%); Chile (932, 16.4%); Oman (1082, 54.7%); Sierra Leone (1942, 95.5%); Saudi Arabia (2405, 13.2%); Namibia (2560, 39.0%); Mozambique (2931, 65.6%); West Bank and Gaza (3152, 52.5%); Malawi (4001, 44.6%); Moldova (6178, 98.1%); Bangladesh (9688, 75.8%); Nigeria (11980, 22.3%); Gambia (13168, 50.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): NH (146, 44.9%); WV (359, 89.8%); MA (2667, 40.7%); IA (4716, 97.4%); MT (379181, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (14, 75.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NS (21, 0.9%); NL (58, 4.7%); NB (63, 72.1%)

Active school cases across the province and in Toronto in particular were stable or reduced for the second day in a row, suggesting we may have reached a plateau, either of actual cases or testing capacity.

Across the country, active cases continue to rise everywhere except the North (which remains free) and the Atlantic provinces (which are recovering fairly quickly from their last wave). Cases in B.C. were up 32% over the past week, Alberta 29%, Saskatchewan 71%, Manitoba 17%, Ontario 7%, and Quebec 10%.

Toronto saw "only" 295 new cases today, the first under-300 in four days. Officially active cases rose to 2,790. Hospital admissions (averaging 12 per day) continue to suggest that the official numbers are low by a factor of four or more.

Today's chart shows active cases over time in North America by country, with the United States scaled down by a factor of 100 so that it fits in fifth place after Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras and Canada,

Stay safe.

2020-10-23

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (110HI→103HI), Malta (121HI→124HI), U.K. (132HI→129HI), Romania (170HI→167HI), Spain (188HI→182HI), Alabama (395HI→320HI), Sweden (408HI→364HI), U.S. (382HI→376HI), Brazil (656HI→662HI), California (790HI→697HI), New York (882HI→882HI), Singapore (30239HI→29638HI), Austria (9→7), Italy (9→7), Poland (11→10), Toronto (13→13), Denmark (31→26), Germany (35→31), Iran (48→45), Canada (48→47), Mexico (59→59), Ontario (68→66), Malaysia (67→67), Norway (123→110), Turkey (157→153), South Korea (802→802), New Zealand (1126→997), Thailand (2500→2330), Australia (4045→3724)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Spain, Alabama, Sweden, Austria, Italy, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Romania, Iran, Ontario

The same: Poland, Canada

Better: Malta, Toronto, Mexico, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (72→67, 24.3%), Japan (1761→460, 37.2%), India (629→542, 68.3%), China (586→1219, 0.7%), South Africa (432→1377, 28.3%), Indonesia (2982→6578, 95.5%), Louisiana (877→42023, 24.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (60): Saint Kitts and Nevis (4, 0.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (14, 3.0%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 25.0%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 9.8%); Monaco (14, 74.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 33.3%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (36, 19.2%); Mauritius (41, 11.5%); Suriname (43, 4.9%); Antigua and Barbuda (57, 27.3%); Chad (145, 22.8%); Equatorial Guinea (172, 1.2%); Papua New Guinea (179, 13.2%); Liberia (203, 5.4%); Burkina Faso (226, 68.1%); Venezuela (258, 43.9%); Uzbekistan (288, 23.5%); Peru (294, 29.3%); Senegal (301, 26.3%); Eswatini (309, 14.3%); Montenegro (315, 87.3%); Vietnam (320, 13.0%); Gabon (348, 14.1%); United Arab Emirates (367, 40.8%); El Salvador (393, 34.8%); Somalia (396, 54.5%); Maldives (413, 33.8%); Guyana (440, 79.1%); Iceland (459, 92.6%); Tajikistan (482, 44.7%); Bahrain (505, 43.9%); Yemen (516, 20.0%); Trinidad and Tobago (587, 69.2%); Bolivia (590, 59.8%); Colombia (610, 39.5%); Cabo Verde (700, 95.7%); Guinea-Bissau (705, 68.2%); Dominican Republic (717, 58.7%); Haiti (866, 49.6%); Guatemala (921, 38.7%); Chile (932, 16.4%); Oman (1082, 54.7%); Sierra Leone (1942, 95.5%); Saudi Arabia (2405, 13.2%); Namibia (2560, 39.0%); Mozambique (2931, 65.6%); West Bank and Gaza (3152, 52.5%); Malawi (4001, 44.6%); Moldova (6178, 98.1%); Bangladesh (9688, 75.8%); Nigeria (11980, 22.3%); Gambia (13168, 50.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): NH (146, 44.9%); WV (359, 89.8%); MA (2667, 40.7%); IA (4716, 97.4%); MT (379181, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (14, 75.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NS (21, 0.9%); NL (58, 4.7%); NB (63, 72.1%)

Active school cases across the province and in Toronto in particular were stable or reduced for the second day in a row, suggesting we may have reached a plateau, either of actual cases or testing capacity.

Across the country, active cases continue to rise everywhere except the North (which remains free) and the Atlantic provinces (which are recovering fairly quickly from their last wave). Cases in B.C. were up 32% over the past week, Alberta 29%, Saskatchewan 71%, Manitoba 17%, Ontario 7%, and Quebec 10%.

Toronto saw "only" 295 new cases today, the first under-300 in four days. Officially active cases rose to 2,790. Hospital admissions (averaging 12 per day) continue to suggest that the official numbers are low by a factor of four or more.

Today's chart shows active cases over time in North America by country, with the United States scaled down by a factor of 100 so that it fits in fifth place after Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras and Canada,

Stay safe.

2020-10-22

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (125HI→121HI), France (135HI→122HI), Spain (165HI→127HI), Malta (129HI→140HI), Romania (0→177HI), Alabama (402HI→402HI), U.S. (409HI→405HI), Sweden (368HI→476HI), Brazil (786HI→659HI), California (758HI→756HI), New York (957HI→957HI), Singapore (29198HI→28228HI), Austria (11→9), Italy (11→9), Poland (13→11), Toronto (15→13), Germany (39→30), Denmark (31→31), Canada (49→44), Iran (49→44), Mexico (72→59), Ontario (71→67), Malaysia (67→70), Norway (125→110), Turkey (157→151), New Zealand (876→876), Australia (3942→3165)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., France, Spain, Romania, Austria, Italy, Germany, Canada, Iran, Mexico, Ontario, Norway, Turkey

Worse: Poland, Toronto

Better: Malta, Denmark, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: South Korea (2609→14, 21.0%), Thailand (new→14, 10.1%), Israel (77→72, 27.0%), South Africa (514→432, 27.6%), China (799→586, 0.7%), India (793→629, 70.3%), Louisiana (2732→877, 23.4%), Japan (1629→1761, 37.1%), Indonesia (2653→2982, 94.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (64): Saint Kitts and Nevis (5, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 30.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Comoros (14, 2.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Eritrea (14, 46.4%); Fiji (14, 8.2%); Grenada (14, 25.0%); Holy See (14, 85.7%); Liberia (14, 5.9%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Madagascar (14, 9.8%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (23, 19.2%); Suriname (41, 4.9%); Mauritius (45, 11.8%); Ecuador (139, 28.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (172, 2.8%); Venezuela (218, 46.3%); Philippines (260, 52.9%); Mozambique (270, 60.8%); Eswatini (276, 14.6%); Senegal (297, 26.9%); Chad (309, 21.8%); Guatemala (332, 37.5%); Guyana (346, 78.1%); Burkina Faso (348, 73.3%); Gabon (348, 14.1%); Somalia (349, 54.0%); Montenegro (357, 89.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (369, 69.3%); Yemen (372, 20.0%); United Arab Emirates (377, 40.6%); Colombia (386, 39.8%); Bahrain (442, 45.5%); Zambia (459, 21.7%); Tajikistan (502, 45.6%); El Salvador (510, 35.7%); Papua New Guinea (561, 14.1%); Maldives (620, 35.9%); Bolivia (665, 60.8%); Uzbekistan (681, 25.2%); Haiti (703, 49.0%); Guinea-Bissau (705, 68.2%); Monaco (710, 64.8%); Dominican Republic (864, 59.9%); Peru (920, 30.8%); Iceland (1059, 96.3%); Estonia (1138, 86.8%); Sierra Leone (1713, 96.1%); Moldova (1875, 97.8%); Namibia (2045, 38.3%); Jamaica (2281, 90.4%); Malawi (2318, 44.2%); Saudi Arabia (3266, 13.4%); Bangladesh (4795, 75.8%); Panama (10128, 82.6%); Central African Republic (16917, 62.1%); Gambia (26354, 50.1%); Oman (33004, 55.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): NH (192, 44.9%); NC (276, 85.3%); WV (367, 87.3%); MS (1014, 51.2%); MN (1257, 96.8%); MA (1261, 37.9%); AR (1982, 98.0%); IA (2641, 95.8%); MT (8319, 94.6%); DC (8446, 81.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (14, 75.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NS (21, 0.9%); NL (58, 4.7%); NB (81, 77.9%)

Although Europe's active cases are continuing to increase supraexponentially and are collectively past 4% daily growth (averaged over the last seven days) now, there is a wide range among countries within the continent. Some countries are seeing over 10% daily increases (in decreasing order, Switzerland, Slovenia, Croatia), some 7-10% (Georgia, Poland, Malta, Italy, Armenia, Germany, Belgium, Czechia), some 4-7% (Bulgaria, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Lithuania, Kosovo, Latvia, Austria, Netherlands), and the three worst-off countries are increasing at less than 4% daily (France, U.K., Spain). Montenegro and Estonia are the only ones that have seen improvements in the past week.

In Ontario, the North West saw only one case in the past week and appears to have settled back to their usual level of safety. The North East is still seeing 10 cases a week, a slight uptick over the previous two weeks' 9 cases. The East has seen two weeks of declines, down now to 612 cases in a week. Central East and Toronto numbers were up for the tenth week in a row, to 1,952 and 2,011 (ten weeks ago, those numbers were 151 and 80). The South and Central West are down from last week to 134 and 611.

School active cases in Toronto and in Ontario took a slight dip today, and in Ontario they have gone back to matching the overall population rate.

Today's chart shows the age distribution of cases in Toronto over time, and updates last week's corresponding chart.

Stay safe.

2020-10-21

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (113HI→113HI), Malta (0→119HI), U.K. (135HI→131HI), Spain (210HI→201HI), U.S. (395HI→385HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Sweden (461HI→399HI), Brazil (627HI→627HI), California (810HI→775HI), New York (935HI→882HI), Romania (1→0), Austria (12→11), Italy (13→11), Poland (13→12), Toronto (16→15), Denmark (36→31), Germany (44→39), Iran (51→49), Canada (51→50), Malaysia (68→69), Ontario (70→69), Norway (140→123), Turkey (167→163), New Zealand (2842→1126), Thailand (2357→2362), Australia (3720→4083)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malta, U.K., Spain, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Turkey

Worse: Italy, Iran

The same: Romania, Austria, Poland, Toronto, Canada, Ontario

Better: France, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Israel (83→77, 29.5%), Singapore (51→108, 0.5%), South Africa (34487→514, 27.7%), India (788→793, 72.7%), China (new→799, 0.7%), Japan (4209→1629, 36.8%), South Korea (new→2609, 20.3%), Indonesia (new→2653, 93.8%), Louisiana (new→2732, 21.8%), Mexico (1608→4118, 81.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (64): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (6, 0.0%); Benin (14, 15.2%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Comoros (14, 2.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (28, 21.2%); Mauritius (45, 11.8%); Nigeria (48, 22.3%); Rwanda (48, 7.7%); Suriname (48, 5.5%); Holy See (82, 85.7%); Ecuador (97, 24.1%); Chad (110, 26.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (185, 2.9%); Liberia (244, 6.3%); Bahrain (249, 45.0%); Maldives (260, 36.1%); Madagascar (274, 9.8%); Peru (284, 28.9%); Colombia (301, 40.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (302, 6.2%); Senegal (307, 27.5%); Philippines (308, 52.3%); Guyana (313, 77.3%); Burkina Faso (348, 73.3%); Somalia (349, 54.0%); Montenegro (366, 90.6%); Trinidad and Tobago (396, 69.6%); Tajikistan (424, 46.3%); United Arab Emirates (424, 40.4%); Mozambique (425, 61.3%); Gabon (541, 14.5%); Papua New Guinea (561, 14.1%); El Salvador (603, 36.5%); Haiti (672, 48.9%); Guinea-Bissau (705, 68.2%); Guatemala (712, 39.5%); Estonia (905, 89.1%); Bolivia (930, 62.4%); Dominican Republic (1014, 61.0%); Yemen (1352, 21.0%); Moldova (1435, 96.7%); Uzbekistan (1436, 25.0%); Venezuela (1599, 53.8%); Panama (1688, 82.7%); Jamaica (1735, 90.1%); Central African Republic (2684, 62.1%); Namibia (3284, 38.8%); Sierra Leone (3452, 97.1%); Bangladesh (3874, 76.0%); Saudi Arabia (4424, 13.5%); Malawi (6948, 44.4%); Gambia (8772, 50.0%); Oman (15518, 55.7%); Afghanistan (46765, 36.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): VI (176, 4.4%); NH (184, 43.0%); NC (252, 78.7%); MS (331, 47.2%); MN (491, 90.9%); ME (1026, 89.2%); AR (1166, 95.7%); IA (5434, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NS (14, 1.1%); NT (14, 75.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NL (58, 4.7%); NB (250, 88.5%)

Here are my regions of interest that saw the fewest new cases in the most recently reported day: New Zealand (2), Thailand (9), China (11), Singapore (12), and Australia (14). Well done!

21 new cases were hospitalized in Toronto today, a record since this figure began being published on September 25. We can infer from that the presence of 1,100 to 2,300 new cases in the community today. The city reported officially that there had been only 331 new cases, and a net total of 2,684 currently active cases. If active cases are being underreported by the same amount, then there are likely 9,000 to 18,000 of them. So we have 1 in 150~350 residents infected and not fewer than 1 in 1,000.

School cases continue to rise at a faster rate than in the general population. I am guessing it is because children are getting tested more than others. It's been at least three weeks since we ran out of testing capacity in Toronto, and our active case count appeared to level off while our test positivity rate continues to climb, but new case rates in schools have continued to climb steadily and linearly. In Toronto, they should reach the reported infection rate in the general population in a week or two; in Ontario they are already past it.

Today's chart is a weekly update showing where new non-outbreak cases were reported in Toronto. For the second week in a row, there were no new cases in our neighbourhood. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-10-20

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (117HI→113HI), U.K. (137HI→135HI), Spain (225HI→210HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), U.S. (408HI→395HI), Sweden (688HI→461HI), Brazil (714HI→627HI), Louisiana (758HI→655HI), California (711HI→810HI), New York (935HI→935HI), Malta (1→0), Romania (2→1), Austria (14→12), Italy (15→13), Poland (15→13), Toronto (17→16), Denmark (36→36), Germany (47→44), Canada (50→51), Iran (54→51), Malaysia (69→68), Ontario (71→70), Norway (139→140), Turkey (171→167), Indonesia (173→176), South Korea (921→1000), Thailand (2685→2357), China (28695→27175)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Spain, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Austria, Italy, Poland, Germany, Iran

The same: Malta, Romania, Toronto, Malaysia, Ontario

Better: Denmark, Canada, Norway, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (136→50, 3.6%), Singapore (56→51, 0.5%), Israel (144→83, 33.5%), India (1119→788, 73.5%), Mexico (new→1608, 76.5%), Australia (2213→2605, 14.8%), Japan (new→4209, 37.3%), South Africa (4019→34487, 29.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (64): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (7, 0.0%); Benin (14, 15.2%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 5.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 66.7%); Niger (14, 2.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 14.3%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Vietnam (14, 12.0%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Rwanda (34, 7.6%); Barbados (44, 23.1%); Nigeria (50, 22.5%); Mauritius (52, 11.8%); Liberia (53, 6.1%); Chad (73, 25.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (74, 2.8%); Holy See (82, 85.7%); Ecuador (103, 21.9%); Suriname (107, 6.4%); Burkina Faso (151, 73.8%); Peru (171, 30.3%); Maldives (212, 35.8%); Gabon (252, 14.5%); Madagascar (274, 9.8%); Colombia (276, 40.6%); Senegal (281, 28.2%); Venezuela (292, 50.8%); Bahrain (293, 46.4%); Tajikistan (321, 47.0%); Guyana (331, 79.0%); Philippines (349, 50.8%); Yemen (390, 20.9%); Lesotho (501, 83.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (529, 71.0%); Papua New Guinea (561, 14.1%); Haiti (672, 48.9%); United Arab Emirates (680, 43.0%); Guinea-Bissau (705, 68.2%); Estonia (763, 89.3%); Guatemala (775, 39.3%); Dominican Republic (788, 61.2%); Mozambique (914, 63.1%); Uzbekistan (1016, 25.0%); Bolivia (1192, 63.5%); Jamaica (1221, 90.7%); El Salvador (1326, 38.0%); Panama (1466, 82.4%); Moldova (2220, 96.4%); Sierra Leone (2306, 97.1%); Afghanistan (2745, 36.0%); Saudi Arabia (2752, 13.5%); Central African Republic (3483, 62.2%); Bangladesh (4771, 76.2%); Pakistan (5276, 9.0%); Malawi (5562, 44.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (4): NC (248, 73.6%); MS (299, 43.9%); MN (1155, 95.0%); AR (1765, 94.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT (14, 25.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); NL (142, 5.7%)

Today's chart is a weekly update on global active cases by continent. Europe, which had been increasing active cases exponentially at the high rate of 2% daily throughout the second half of September, has spent October so far climbing supraexponentially to 4% daily now, with no sign of slowing down. At this rate, they should surpass North America's current merely 1% daily exponential growth within a week.

Active Ontario school cases exceed 1/8 of the total known active cases in the province today for the first time, and school cases are growing at a faster rate than non-school cases, indicating that school-age children are catching COVID-19 at a greater rate than the rest of the province. We are still keeping schools open, while the school boards reassess their plans for the school year to see if there is any way to provide an education more safely while complying with provincial requirements of in-person schooling. The province says it's not okay though for kids in Toronto to go out trick-or-treating this Hallowe'en, because reasons.

Toronto reported 339 new confirmed/probable cases today. My estimate of actual new daily cases based on hospitalization rates dropped below 1,000 a little for the first time in more than two weeks, after peaking at over 1,400 a week ago. Official active case totals have risen again over the last two days to 2,611, after dipping down to 2,407. The actual total is likely over 10,000 at this point.

Another downtown hospital declared an outbreak today, when five staff in the emergency department at St. Michael's tested positive.

Stay safe.

2020-10-19

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (128HI→117HI), U.K. (140HI→137HI), Spain (249HI→225HI), Alabama (408HI→395HI), U.S. (407HI→408HI), Sweden (688HI→688HI), California (673HI→711HI), Brazil (714HI→714HI), Louisiana (758HI→758HI), New York (929HI→935HI), Malta (2→1), Romania (4→2), Austria (17→14), Italy (17→15), Poland (18→15), Toronto (18→17), Denmark (38→36), Germany (49→47), Canada (53→50), Iran (54→54), Malaysia (71→69), Mexico (72→72), Norway (143→139), Turkey (177→171), Japan (441→441), Thailand (2682→2685), China (28695→28695)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Spain, Romania, Austria, Poland, Norway, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Italy, Denmark, Germany, Canada, Malaysia

The same: Malta, Toronto

Better: Iran, Mexico

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (51→56, 0.5%), New Zealand (new→136, 4.0%), Israel (136→144, 45.3%), India (1054→1119, 75.9%), Australia (new→2213, 14.8%), South Africa (new→4019, 29.3%), Indonesia (1945→4266, 96.2%), Ontario (9799, no new data, 95.1%), South Korea (new→11693, 21.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (62): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (8, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Cameroon (14, 21.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 67.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (14, 10.5%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 71.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mali (14, 98.0%); Nicaragua (14, 66.7%); Papua New Guinea (14, 14.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 14.3%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Somalia (14, 58.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Rwanda (20, 7.4%); Nigeria (50, 22.3%); Liberia (55, 5.9%); Barbados (100, 26.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (108, 3.0%); Suriname (139, 7.6%); Burkina Faso (141, 76.9%); Venezuela (146, 50.8%); Ecuador (148, 21.5%); Chad (198, 26.2%); Maldives (237, 36.4%); Bahrain (252, 47.0%); Lesotho (257, 83.8%); Tajikistan (261, 47.6%); Senegal (273, 29.1%); Madagascar (274, 9.8%); Colombia (290, 42.7%); Philippines (302, 47.9%); Peru (317, 34.2%); Yemen (390, 20.9%); Gabon (474, 15.2%); Gambia (576, 50.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (846, 73.0%); Dominican Republic (850, 62.3%); Bolivia (910, 64.4%); United Arab Emirates (976, 45.2%); Namibia (1067, 39.5%); Guyana (1191, 84.7%); Estonia (1193, 90.6%); Eswatini (1250, 15.5%); Kazakhstan (1538, 7.9%); Panama (1659, 82.7%); Saudi Arabia (1824, 13.5%); Afghanistan (2911, 36.4%); Central African Republic (3191, 62.2%); Bangladesh (3880, 76.2%); El Salvador (4328, 38.0%); Jamaica (4397, 91.9%); Sierra Leone (6874, 96.9%); Guatemala (9898, 40.4%); Mozambique (12810, 66.3%); Sudan (32622, 84.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (1): MI (2960, 88.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%)

Kudos to Michigan and Prince Edward Island for casting a ray of hope on their respective countries, as the only state and province that have seen a 7-day decline in active cases.

The City of Toronto started posting neighbourhood-level testing information in its excellent collection of open data today. It shows the number of individuals tested (not counting duplicates within a week) per 1,000 population, and the percentage positive rate for neighbourhoods with more than 5 cases in a week.

Today's chart shows active cases vs. rate of change for a selection of countries of interest overlapping with the list of regions of interest above. Since the last time I posted this chart three weeks ago, there's been a significant upward movement, where fewer countries are seeing recent decreases in active cases, and those that are increasing are increasing faster.

Toronto has seen an officially reported count of 1,848 new cases in the past seven days, which is within two cases of the average of the past three weeks. If I had to guess optimistically, I'd say that given how careful everyone I see is being, numbers must be starting to come down, and the reason that they appear to be up 4% over last week is a random fluctuation somewhere far above the maximum number of cases that we are set up to detect in a week.

B.C. is up 8% in a week, Alberta +27%, Saskatchewan +91%, Manitoba +58%, Ontario +4%, Quebec +5%, New Brunswick +46%, PEI down 5 to 3, Nova Scotia up from 4 to 6, Newfoundland and Labrador up from 9 to 11; the North is still free of COVID-19.

Stay safe.

2020-10-18

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (129HI→128HI), U.K. (143HI→140HI), Spain (249HI→249HI), U.S. (407HI→407HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), California (673HI→673HI), Sweden (688HI→688HI), Brazil (706HI→714HI), Louisiana (758HI→758HI), New York (953HI→929HI), South Africa (1283HI→1517HI), Malta (3→2), Romania (4→4), Austria (17→17), Italy (20→17), Poland (18→18), Toronto (19→18), Denmark (38→38), Germany (53→49), Canada (54→53), Iran (56→54), Malaysia (74→71), Mexico (77→72), Norway (147→143), Turkey (183→177), Japan (432→441), South Korea (936→921), Thailand (2977→2682), New Zealand (3276→2841), Australia (3020→3333), China (24954→28695)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Italy, Germany, Mexico, Norway, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Iran, Malaysia

The same: France, Malta, Toronto, Canada

Better: Spain, Romania, Austria, Poland, Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (62→51, 0.5%), Israel (125→136, 48.5%), India (1069→1054, 77.0%), Indonesia (1134→1945, 95.7%), Ontario (new→9799, 95.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (60): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (9, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Cuba (14, 34.4%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 71.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 8.2%); Nicaragua (14, 66.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 14.3%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Somalia (14, 58.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Rwanda (16, 7.9%); Benin (19, 15.2%); Burundi (45, 31.7%); Liberia (47, 5.9%); Nigeria (49, 21.9%); Suriname (102, 7.7%); Gabon (108, 15.2%); Chad (132, 23.2%); Peru (162, 32.4%); Burkina Faso (169, 79.4%); Tajikistan (239, 48.4%); Lesotho (255, 84.1%); Senegal (267, 29.8%); Madagascar (274, 9.8%); Colombia (299, 44.9%); Bahrain (332, 49.2%); Venezuela (379, 54.9%); Kazakhstan (405, 7.6%); Maldives (415, 37.7%); United Arab Emirates (523, 44.9%); Yemen (553, 21.2%); Estonia (608, 89.1%); Gambia (628, 50.1%); Guyana (631, 85.2%); Cote d'Ivoire (797, 3.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (812, 75.5%); Bolivia (839, 64.9%); Chile (842, 16.5%); Malawi (1053, 44.8%); Dominican Republic (1258, 62.9%); Central African Republic (1364, 62.2%); Namibia (1484, 38.9%); Saudi Arabia (2410, 13.5%); Burma (2424, 95.9%); Uganda (2735, 85.7%); Ghana (3010, 5.4%); Panama (3181, 83.0%); Qatar (3714, 9.0%); Afghanistan (3934, 36.4%); Bangladesh (8043, 76.6%); Haiti (9710, 51.2%); Sudan (12534, 84.2%); Jamaica (20633, 91.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (1): MI (2960, 88.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%)

Toronto Western Hospital, where my mother spend part of her last month, has declared its first COVID-19 outbreak in several months, with three patients and six staff in two units testing positive in what is likely a case of hospital-acquired transmission. St. Joseph's Health Centre, where I would normally go for a semiannual specialist checkup, has twenty cases in four units, including seven newly admitted into their COVID-19 unit. CAMH, with which I have no personal connection (it's a place that I know of from riding past to get to a Scrabble event) also declared an outbreak with two patients today.

There was a CBC story today that reported that Alberta is effectively not doing contact-tracing, because patients who have tested positive are not only not obliged to share their contact information, but more and more are refusing to cooperate. In Alberta now, they are only able to identify the cause of transmission of 57% of cases. In Toronto, we have temporarily suspended keeping track of this statistic, presumably until our overall numbers are low enough to make it practical to do anything more than ask everyone to avoid each other unless they are at school, work, or a small necessary gathering.

There were 192 new cases in Toronto today according to city statistics, the second day in a row that we recorded fewer than 200. Two deaths and 237 recoveries brought our official active case count down to 2,448; the real number is probably still a little less than 10,000.

Today's chart updates last week's, plotting school cases against correspondingly scaled active case numbers in Toronto and Ontario. It shows how school cases in the province have apparently reached the same 1 in 2,500 proportion as have officially confirmed cases in the general population. If the school cases continue to rise past this level next week, we might reasonably infer either that children are more infectious than adults, or adults are being tested less intensively than children.

Stay safe.

2020-10-17

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (129HI→129HI), U.K. (142HI→143HI), Spain (249HI→249HI), U.S. (418HI→407HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), California (650HI→673HI), Sweden (688HI→688HI), Brazil (690HI→706HI), New York (985HI→953HI), South Africa (1309HI→1283HI), Malta (6→3), Romania (5→4), Austria (19→17), Poland (20→18), Toronto (17→19), Italy (23→20), Germany (56→53), Canada (59→54), Iran (56→56), Ontario (70→70), Malaysia (82→74), Mexico (77→77), Norway (146→147), Turkey (183→183), Japan (432→432), Thailand (3262→2977), New Zealand (3276→3276), China (24954→24954)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malta, Canada, Malaysia

Worse: Austria, Poland, Italy, Germany

The same: Romania

Better: France, U.K., Spain, Iran, Ontario, Mexico, Norway, Turkey

Much better: Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (58→62, 0.6%), Israel (118→125, 51.5%), Louisiana (471→277, 22.1%), South Korea (370→458, 20.5%), Denmark (1295→1042, 78.8%), India (831→1069, 78.1%), Indonesia (911→1134, 95.5%), Australia (new→8741, 14.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (65): Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (10, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 21.2%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 71.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 8.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 4.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Somalia (14, 58.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Benin (19, 15.2%); Rwanda (19, 12.5%); Burundi (37, 27.5%); Comoros (46, 9.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (58, 20.5%); Liberia (72, 6.7%); Gabon (108, 15.2%); Zambia (116, 18.5%); Burkina Faso (171, 79.4%); Peru (181, 34.0%); Senegal (193, 30.5%); Tajikistan (222, 49.7%); Namibia (268, 39.2%); Kazakhstan (281, 7.6%); Lesotho (291, 84.1%); Suriname (293, 8.2%); Venezuela (299, 55.1%); Colombia (318, 47.1%); United Arab Emirates (359, 44.2%); Bahrain (365, 51.8%); Uganda (380, 82.7%); Chile (400, 16.3%); Mozambique (423, 66.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (447, 75.5%); Malawi (487, 44.6%); Guyana (594, 85.1%); Gambia (628, 50.1%); Burma (631, 93.5%); Eswatini (668, 14.8%); Estonia (682, 92.1%); Cuba (689, 34.4%); Madagascar (712, 10.8%); Bolivia (755, 65.4%); Yemen (923, 21.4%); Afghanistan (949, 36.3%); Dominican Republic (1226, 63.6%); Jamaica (1348, 91.9%); Haiti (1362, 51.2%); Uzbekistan (1401, 25.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (1619, 3.3%); Tunisia (1820, 95.3%); Saudi Arabia (2214, 13.6%); Central African Republic (2387, 62.8%); El Salvador (2589, 38.7%); Qatar (3091, 9.0%); Sudan (3480, 84.2%); Maldives (34715, 40.5%); Bangladesh (57043, 76.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): VI (100, 4.7%); MA (5725, 37.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%)

Toronto set a record for largest number of new confirmed or probable cases reported in a single day of 374 (as reported to the province this morning) or 430 (as announced by the city late yesterday afternoon), surpassing the previous record of 358 (383). It's been a week since Thanksgiving, and I wonder if this is an indication that people weren't as socially distant for the holiday as the government recommended.

Active cases in Toronto have stayed between 2,400 and 2,500 for six days. We are averaging ten new hospitalisations daily, with a gradual net increase in hospital beds occupied after subtracting discharges and deaths, creeping up now to 113. Ten new hospitalisations will lead to 3.3 deaths; 60% of deaths have been hospitalised, so those 3.3 deaths will be recorded among 5.5 for this daily cohort. If the infection fatality rate is 0.5%-1.0%, that means that the corresponding number of new cases that should have been confirmed for those 5.5 deaths is 550 ~ 1,100 and not the 300 or so that are currently managing to get tested and confirmed.

This is worse than the last time that I ran this calculation, and is an indication that the statistics available increasingly reflect lack of access and timeliness in testing rather than a reduction in the number of cases or an improvement in our situation. It seems likely that there are at least 10,000 actively infected people in our population of 3 million, and that no one should be leaving their houses except for urgent reasons.

Today's chart updates last week's graph showing CMAJ data on active cases in each Canadian province and territory. In the past week, Ontario and Quebec have drifted slowly upward in lockstep; Manitoba has climbed rapidly to surpass B.C. for the first time; Alberta, New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador have exhibited steady exponential growth; Saskatchewan much more rapid exponential growth; Nova Scotia and P.E.I have at least managed to stay under 10 cases; and no new cases have been reported in the North.

Stay safe.

2020-10-16

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (131HI→129HI), U.K. (141HI→142HI), Spain (255HI→249HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (424HI→418HI), California (636HI→650HI), Sweden (654HI→688HI), Brazil (705HI→690HI), New York (958HI→985HI), South Africa (1292HI→1309HI), Romania (6→5), Malta (7→6), Toronto (19→17), Austria (19→19), Poland (22→20), Italy (27→23), Germany (61→56), Iran (57→56), Canada (54→59), Mexico (83→77), Malaysia (86→82), Norway (138→146), Turkey (186→183), Australia (2689→2955), Thailand (3107→3262), New Zealand (3541→3276), China (24551→24954)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Italy, Germany, Mexico, Malaysia

Worse: France, Toronto, Poland, Turkey

The same: Romania, Malta, Iran

Better: U.K., Austria, Norway

Much better: Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (84→58, 0.7%), Israel (138→118, 56.4%), South Korea (3362→370, 20.6%), Louisiana (251→471, 22.1%), India (872→831, 79.0%), Indonesia (3186→911, 95.0%), Ontario (new→1133, 96.6%), Denmark (1016→1295, 79.0%), Japan (3733→9459, 37.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (69): Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (11, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 5.7%); Comoros (14, 4.8%); Dominica (14, 28.6%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Holy See (14, 100.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Somalia (14, 58.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 22.1%); Zimbabwe (14, 6.1%); Equatorial Guinea (16, 1.2%); Benin (19, 15.2%); Rwanda (19, 15.0%); Burundi (33, 25.8%); Antigua and Barbuda (58, 20.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (71, 5.5%); Gabon (78, 16.1%); Suriname (85, 7.7%); Zambia (116, 18.5%); Mauritania (129, 3.5%); Cuba (133, 30.7%); Namibia (169, 37.3%); Senegal (184, 31.6%); Kazakhstan (236, 7.6%); Mozambique (238, 65.5%); Madagascar (241, 10.8%); Tajikistan (289, 51.6%); Peru (301, 39.6%); Bhutan (302, 23.5%); Bahrain (314, 52.3%); Guinea-Bissau (326, 71.0%); Colombia (350, 48.2%); Gambia (364, 50.0%); United Arab Emirates (370, 45.4%); Venezuela (396, 57.7%); Uganda (400, 81.6%); Trinidad and Tobago (404, 75.4%); Burkina Faso (429, 88.7%); Malawi (431, 44.6%); Chile (490, 16.3%); Lesotho (537, 88.7%); Guyana (543, 86.5%); Bolivia (705, 65.8%); Guatemala (789, 41.3%); Burma (1018, 91.7%); Saudi Arabia (1194, 13.7%); Estonia (1227, 92.9%); Haiti (1362, 51.2%); Uzbekistan (1544, 25.9%); Afghanistan (1729, 36.4%); Dominican Republic (1896, 64.6%); Eswatini (2017, 15.1%); Jamaica (2041, 93.3%); Central African Republic (2387, 62.8%); Honduras (4384, 99.0%); El Salvador (5306, 39.0%); Sudan (7092, 84.2%); Iraq (7313, 88.6%); Qatar (11999, 9.0%); Bangladesh (23900, 76.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): VI (100, 4.7%); TN (639, 46.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.9%); PE (14, 15.0%)

Toronto and Ontario saw their lowest new case numbers in five days, but are still in quite dangerous territory, with 2,538 (up 131) and 5,873 (down 10) confirmed/probable active cases. School cases in both ended up 17% higher than a week ago, 203 and 734.

Today's chart shows the active cases in the countries of Asia and Oceania, stacked with the biggest (India, Russia, Bangladesh, Iran, Indonesia, Iraq, Philippines) on top. As a region, they are plateauing, but only because Russia is adding cases as quickly as India loses them.

Stay safe.

2020-10-15

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (141HI→131HI), U.K. (0→141HI), Spain (255HI→255HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (432HI→424HI), California (648HI→636HI), Sweden (0→654HI), Brazil (706HI→705HI), New York (958HI→958HI), South Africa (1379HI→1292HI), Romania (8→6), Malta (9→7), Austria (21→19), Toronto (19→19), Poland (25→22), Italy (31→27), Canada (54→54), Iran (60→57), Germany (67→61), Ontario (67→67), Malaysia (90→86), Norway (132→138), Turkey (188→186), Australia (2637→2689), Thailand (3603→3107), China (25150→24551)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, U.K., Sweden, Romania, Malta, Italy, Germany, Malaysia

Worse: Austria, Poland, Iran, Turkey

Better: Spain, Toronto, Canada, Ontario, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (72→84, 0.8%), Israel (210→138, 61.7%), Louisiana (309→251, 20.5%), New Zealand (184→257, 4.5%), India (869→872, 79.8%), Denmark (720→1016, 79.2%), Indonesia (205147→3186, 97.2%), South Korea (635→3362, 21.4%), Japan (5007→3733, 37.5%), Mexico (891→6209, 76.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (12, 0.0%); Barbados (14, 30.8%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Comoros (14, 4.8%); Dominica (14, 57.1%); Eritrea (14, 30.4%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Holy See (14, 100.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 7.8%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); San Marino (14, 6.0%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Taiwan (14, 12.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zimbabwe (14, 6.4%); Benin (16, 13.0%); Equatorial Guinea (16, 1.2%); Rwanda (30, 23.9%); Burundi (47, 25.8%); Cambodia (51, 5.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (58, 20.5%); Cuba (63, 30.5%); Gabon (78, 16.1%); Ecuador (80, 27.8%); Mauritania (87, 3.5%); Zambia (111, 18.8%); Senegal (175, 32.7%); Madagascar (188, 10.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (189, 3.7%); Suriname (215, 8.8%); Peru (260, 39.6%); Philippines (275, 55.6%); Mozambique (285, 66.5%); Guinea-Bissau (326, 71.0%); Bahrain (329, 54.1%); Guatemala (333, 40.5%); Namibia (379, 40.7%); Tajikistan (386, 53.4%); Malawi (401, 44.5%); United Arab Emirates (409, 47.0%); Burma (433, 90.8%); Kazakhstan (437, 8.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (439, 75.9%); El Salvador (476, 38.4%); Eswatini (588, 15.8%); Colombia (630, 50.3%); West Bank and Gaza (630, 50.8%); Saudi Arabia (661, 13.7%); Bahamas (695, 95.3%); Gambia (869, 52.8%); Uganda (869, 85.3%); Bolivia (996, 67.5%); Uzbekistan (1012, 26.0%); Iraq (1199, 88.3%); Chile (1496, 16.7%); Haiti (1560, 50.7%); Estonia (1880, 92.9%); Central African Republic (2387, 62.8%); Jamaica (2685, 92.6%); Burkina Faso (2729, 93.8%); Sierra Leone (3460, 97.3%); Dominican Republic (4637, 65.5%); Guyana (10104, 86.9%); Bangladesh (13186, 77.1%); Sudan (27221, 84.5%); Afghanistan (27263, 36.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): MP (14, 92.5%); VI (211, 5.1%); NC (215, 81.6%); MS (1020, 45.5%); IA (1169, 88.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 4.7%); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (25, 0.6%)

I think it's safe to say that we've reached a plateau in Toronto. Our confirmed/probable active cases have hovered around 2,400 for almost two weeks. Our hospitalisation count has been around 100 for a week. School cases are up slightly over the past few days, but are climbing at a much slower rate than before. Since we cut back on the availability of tests, our 24-hour turnaround percentage has increased to 28%, and our positivity count has levelled off at about 3.1%. So we're in serious trouble, but it doesn't seem to be getting worse. I don't think we've finished seeing the effect of the recent restrictions, so I expect that we won't be getting worse as long as they are in place.

Today's chart shows the rates of active infection by age range in Toronto. More people in their 50s and 60s have been getting sick in the last week, while under-20s have been leading the way in reducing their numbers.

Stay safe.

2020-10-14

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (142HI→141HI), Spain (259HI→255HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (441HI→432HI), California (672HI→648HI), Brazil (682HI→706HI), New York (940HI→958HI), South Africa (1379HI→1379HI), Sweden (1→0), U.K. (2→0), Romania (9→8), Malta (10→9), Toronto (21→19), Austria (23→21), Poland (28→25), Italy (35→31), Canada (65→54), Iran (60→60), Germany (72→67), Ontario (69→67), Malaysia (92→90), Norway (123→132), Turkey (189→188), Australia (2931→2637), Thailand (new→3603), China (25147→25150)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, U.K., Italy, Canada, Germany

Worse: Toronto, Austria, Poland, Ontario, Malaysia

The same: France, Sweden, Romania, Malta, Turkey

Better: Iran, Norway

Much better: Thailand

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (102→72, 0.8%), New Zealand (348→184, 4.3%), Israel (311→210, 67.4%), Louisiana (new→309, 18.9%), South Korea (new→635, 20.7%), Denmark (1030→720, 78.6%), India (905→869, 81.2%), Mexico (668→891, 70.2%), Japan (new→5007, 37.4%), Indonesia (new→205147, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Brunei (6, 0.0%); Fiji, Saint Kitts and Nevis (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 25.0%); Benin (14, 48.1%); Cameroon (14, 15.8%); Comoros (14, 4.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 65.6%); Dominica (14, 57.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Holy See (14, 100.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Luxembourg (14, 48.8%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 35.6%); San Marino (14, 6.0%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zimbabwe (14, 6.1%); Equatorial Guinea (15, 1.2%); Djibouti (27, 0.2%); Cambodia (51, 5.7%); Rwanda (53, 35.0%); Mauritania (65, 3.7%); Cuba (69, 34.4%); Ecuador (74, 25.0%); Bhutan (81, 23.5%); Zambia (132, 20.5%); Madagascar (161, 10.8%); Gabon (181, 19.5%); Senegal (185, 33.6%); Eswatini (202, 15.2%); Philippines (268, 54.1%); Guatemala (293, 40.4%); Cote d'Ivoire (299, 3.3%); Guinea-Bissau (326, 71.0%); Namibia (346, 39.8%); El Salvador (396, 37.8%); Bahrain (397, 54.8%); Mozambique (411, 67.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (486, 78.6%); Venezuela (516, 60.7%); Haiti (533, 51.4%); Iraq (560, 87.4%); Tajikistan (564, 54.9%); West Bank and Gaza (569, 50.9%); Saudi Arabia (585, 13.7%); Guyana (593, 89.4%); United Arab Emirates (644, 48.4%); Malawi (673, 46.1%); Peru (735, 43.1%); Kazakhstan (742, 8.3%); Uzbekistan (835, 26.4%); Gambia (951, 52.6%); Bolivia (1127, 68.4%); Burkina Faso (1132, 93.8%); Uganda (1366, 86.8%); Suriname (2004, 9.4%); Estonia (2460, 93.5%); Dominican Republic (2717, 65.1%); Yemen (2850, 22.1%); Bangladesh (5855, 77.0%); Sudan (8179, 84.5%); Afghanistan (8276, 36.7%); Argentina (8697, 99.4%); Qatar (9730, 9.1%); Sierra Leone (13798, 97.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): VI (75, 5.1%); NC (177, 74.4%); MS (277, 40.0%); MP (516, 92.5%); PR (2275, 94.6%); IA (6872, 87.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (37, 0.9%); NL (94, 4.2%); QC (30261, 42.5%)

Sweden and the U.K. joined the 1% club today, having transmitted COVID-19 to 1 in 100 of their population. There are now 35 countries in that category: Andorra, Argentina, Armenia, Bahamas, Bahrain, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Cabo Verde, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czechia, Dominican Republic, France, Holy See, Iceland, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Maldives, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Oman, Panama, Peru, Qatar, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, US, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom.

School case numbers dropped for the first time in Ontario, as well as in Toronto, Ottawa and Brampton, if slightly. Here's hoping it's the start of a downturn in COVID-19 in the classroom, and not just a levelling off into a plateau. Overall active case numbers in Toronto likewise dropped slightly, although there it's a matter of two or three days of increases followed by one decrease, so not quite at a plateau yet, just losing momentum.

Today's chart is the weekly one showing cases in Toronto neighbourhoods. No new cases in our neighbourhood this week for the first time in a little while. Interact with the chart here.

Stay safe.

2020-10-13

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (144HI→142HI), Spain (240HI→259HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (445HI→441HI), California (653HI→672HI), Brazil (557HI→682HI), Louisiana (779HI→779HI), New York (948HI→940HI), South Africa (1407HI→1379HI), Sweden (4→1), U.K. (3→2), Romania (10→9), Malta (12→10), Toronto (25→21), Austria (23→23), Poland (31→28), Italy (39→35), Iran (61→60), Canada (65→65), Ontario (75→69), Germany (78→72), Malaysia (89→92), Norway (123→123), Indonesia (159→161), Turkey (192→189), Japan (450→455), South Korea (962→919), Australia (3058→2931), China (28401→25147)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, Toronto, Italy, Ontario, Germany

Worse: France, Malta, Poland, Turkey

The same: U.K., Romania, Iran

Better: Spain, Austria, Canada, Malaysia, Norway, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (83→102, 0.9%), Israel (901→311, 73.7%), New Zealand (new→348, 4.2%), Mexico (new→668, 68.0%), India (1249→905, 82.4%), Denmark (472→1030, 81.6%), Thailand (new→2824, 8.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (69): Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Brunei (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 25.0%); Benin (14, 48.1%); Bhutan (14, 21.2%); Cambodia (14, 5.7%); Cameroon (14, 15.8%); Comoros (14, 12.5%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Holy See (14, 100.0%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Luxembourg (14, 48.8%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 60.7%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); San Marino (14, 6.0%); Solomon Islands (14, 100.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zimbabwe (14, 5.7%); Equatorial Guinea (15, 1.2%); Djibouti (27, 0.2%); Seychelles (37, 4.5%); Mauritania (44, 3.4%); Ecuador (66, 22.3%); Cuba (77, 35.7%); Ghana (103, 4.7%); Niger (110, 1.8%); Rwanda (116, 46.7%); Madagascar (121, 11.2%); Suriname (133, 8.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (165, 3.3%); Eswatini (166, 15.4%); Gabon (172, 19.5%); Zambia (197, 23.3%); Bahrain (204, 57.0%); Senegal (246, 35.9%); Philippines (264, 52.1%); Guatemala (312, 41.5%); Guinea-Bissau (326, 71.0%); El Salvador (436, 39.3%); Mozambique (449, 71.8%); United Arab Emirates (467, 49.2%); Uzbekistan (468, 26.2%); Iraq (484, 87.8%); Saudi Arabia (517, 13.8%); Venezuela (617, 62.6%); Guyana (798, 89.5%); Haiti (806, 52.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (869, 81.1%); West Bank and Gaza (954, 51.8%); Kazakhstan (994, 8.6%); Gambia (1009, 52.6%); Bolivia (1190, 69.3%); Estonia (1216, 96.1%); Tajikistan (1241, 56.9%); Burkina Faso (1279, 93.6%); Malawi (1676, 47.4%); Qatar (1804, 9.1%); Yemen (2824, 21.9%); Bangladesh (3758, 77.0%); Argentina (4020, 97.3%); Kuwait (4939, 46.9%); Peru (5963, 43.9%); Sierra Leone (6890, 97.1%); Central African Republic (78221, 63.6%); Dominican Republic (94728, 65.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): VI (118, 5.4%); NC (173, 69.0%); MS (267, 36.4%); PR (767, 90.8%); WA (1819, 97.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%); QC (555, 40.3%)

I marked an unusual event in the COVID-19 pandemic today: the JHU database started tracking a new country today, Solomon Islands, which saw their first case on October 3rd, and their second on October 11th. The first was reportedly among 400 students stranded in the Philippines, who are beginning to be repatriated. The second sat next to the first on their return flight. The database that I had originally found populations of all the countries in the world had missed Solomon Islands, so data imports temporarily stopped for me until I manually created that record.

Prior to Solomon Islands, the most recent country to experience its first case of COVID-19 was Lesotho on May 13.

The school that my younger son would be going to if we weren't safely attending virtual school from home has notified us that one Grade 9 (his grade) cohort is currently in isolation as a result of a positive test result.

My older son's school has let us know that this week's deadline to switch between virtual and on-site schooling has been indefinitely postponed, as the school board reevaluates its service delivery model.

My late mother's nursing home has an outbreak, with 45 confirmed cases and 5 deaths among 130 patients, and 27 staff sick which I'm guessing is at least half of them. Nursing/medical students are apparently volunteering to help on an emergency basis.

Today's chart is an update of the continental chart, showing Europe's continual exponential surge.

My commentary is going to be a little terser even than usual for the next couple of weeks, as I am swamped with work from two of my clients.

Stay safe.

2020-10-12

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (147HI→144HI), Spain (249HI→240HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (455HI→445HI), Brazil (545HI→557HI), California (733HI→653HI), Louisiana (779HI→779HI), New York (909HI→948HI), South Africa (1329HI→1407HI), U.K. (3→3), Sweden (4→4), Romania (11→10), Malta (13→12), Austria (25→23), Toronto (25→25), Poland (34→31), Italy (43→39), Mexico (45→45), Iran (62→61), Canada (57→65), Ontario (75→75), Germany (84→78), Malaysia (90→89), Norway (120→123), Indonesia (157→159), Turkey (192→192), Japan (454→450), South Korea (1005→962), Thailand (2600→2602), New Zealand (2492→3029), Australia (3272→3058), China (28660→28401)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Italy, Germany

Worse: France, Austria, Poland

The same: Romania, Malta, Iran, Malaysia

Better: U.K., Sweden, Toronto, Mexico, Ontario, Norway, Indonesia, Turkey

Much better: Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (74→83, 1.0%), Denmark (336→472, 81.3%), Israel (1822→901, 82.7%), India (1263→1249, 84.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (65): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (8, 0.0%); Benin (14, 48.1%); Cambodia (14, 5.7%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Luxembourg (14, 48.8%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 10.7%); Monaco (14, 37.2%); Nicaragua (14, 60.7%); Niger (14, 1.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 22.1%); Bhutan (16, 24.7%); Seychelles (37, 4.5%); Djibouti (42, 0.3%); Ghana (59, 4.8%); Mauritania (61, 4.1%); Comoros (63, 12.5%); Cuba (71, 37.1%); Ecuador (73, 21.5%); Madagascar (92, 12.1%); Eswatini (110, 15.3%); Botswana (158, 77.6%); Philippines (201, 48.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (212, 3.9%); Uzbekistan (232, 26.4%); Cameroon (262, 15.8%); Senegal (277, 37.5%); United Arab Emirates (296, 50.4%); El Salvador (410, 39.3%); West Bank and Gaza (422, 51.0%); Guyana (508, 91.4%); Iraq (514, 89.2%); Guatemala (531, 43.3%); Saudi Arabia (545, 14.1%); Malawi (574, 47.8%); Zambia (594, 23.3%); Venezuela (724, 63.6%); Bahrain (890, 58.6%); Rwanda (1008, 59.1%); Haiti (1053, 52.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (1082, 81.7%); Burkina Faso (1146, 94.8%); Bolivia (1204, 70.0%); Qatar (1431, 9.0%); Kazakhstan (1786, 8.8%); Kuwait (2014, 45.4%); Tajikistan (2099, 57.3%); Bangladesh (3220, 77.1%); Gabon (3366, 22.7%); Mozambique (4048, 75.5%); Sudan (7687, 84.6%); Sierra Leone (13766, 97.1%); Gambia (23110, 54.3%); Central African Republic (39118, 63.6%); Lesotho (72821, 93.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (5): VI (14, 5.4%); NC (168, 64.2%); MS (274, 33.5%); PR (1076, 93.1%); WA (12647, 98.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); QC (955, 40.6%)

No new stats from Toronto, Ontario, or much of the rest of Canada this Thanksgiving Monday, so the better ratings are spurious. Enjoy the time off - in small, safe, groups, and if you're lucky, with a reasonable amount of turkey.

Today's charts demonstrate a new type of chart on my webpage: phase diagrams of rated of new cases per active case (both averaged over seven days) plotted against proportion of infected population. This is probably what I should have been doing from the start, as the old ones that plotted new cases per cumulative case become less relevant with each new recovery. Here, we can see that in the best-case scenarios in countries like New Zealand and Thailand, whenever there's an outbreak you still get transmission of up to almost 20% (1 new case daily per 5 active), that you can bring it down quickly through strict measures, but until there's a change in the situation (like reliable mass vaccination) you're going to be circling around a point somewhere around 5~10% transmission and 1 in 100,000~1,000,000 actively infected. We can also see that countries like Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K. don't really take action until we reach about 0.1% (1 in 1,000 actively infected), and that when we do take action, it's not for long enough to bring our levels down to manageable ones.

Stay safe.

2020-10-11

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (116HI→122HI), Spain (216HI→216HI), Alabama (399HI→399HI), U.S. (434HI→402HI), Brazil (496HI→599HI), California (830HI→687HI), New York (849HI→849HI), Louisiana (987HI→987HI), South Africa (1580HI→1053HI), U.K. (4→3), Sweden (4→4), Romania (11→10), Malta (13→12), Austria (23→23), Toronto (22→23), Poland (30→28), Italy (39→35), Canada (75→60), Iran (62→62), Ontario (69→67), Mexico (75→75), Germany (73→79), Malaysia (110→107), Norway (96→124), Indonesia (153→154), Turkey (188→191), Japan (394→394), New Zealand (2425→2425), Australia (3421→2921), China (25776→25776)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Italy, Canada

Worse: Poland, Ontario, Malaysia

The same: U.K., Romania, Malta

Better: France, Spain, Sweden, Austria, Toronto, Iran, Mexico, Germany, Indonesia, Turkey

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (74, no new data, 1.0%), Thailand (82, no new data, 8.7%), Denmark (336, no new data, 82.1%), South Korea (435, no new data, 21.6%), India (2086→1263, 85.2%), Israel (1822, no new data, 85.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (59): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.4%); Kosovo (14, 29.9%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 21.9%); Bhutan (15, 22.4%); Niger (20, 1.8%); Mongolia (27, 4.5%); Seychelles (37, 4.5%); Djibouti (42, 0.3%); Ghana (59, 4.8%); Comoros (63, 12.5%); Madagascar (70, 12.5%); Mauritania (80, 4.4%); Cuba (118, 45.3%); Kenya (130, 62.8%); Eswatini (140, 16.4%); Botswana (158, 77.6%); Monaco (174, 35.6%); Mozambique (235, 74.8%); Cameroon (262, 15.8%); United Arab Emirates (333, 51.7%); Senegal (367, 39.2%); Guyana (395, 87.2%); Bahrain (396, 60.3%); Uzbekistan (406, 26.9%); Mauritius (439, 10.7%); Malawi (448, 48.0%); Venezuela (552, 64.2%); Gabon (635, 22.7%); Burkina Faso (677, 94.8%); Saudi Arabia (715, 14.6%); Haiti (716, 51.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (722, 81.7%); Iraq (865, 91.8%); El Salvador (875, 41.4%); Peru (891, 47.5%); Kazakhstan (897, 8.8%); Bolivia (954, 70.6%); Kuwait (1054, 45.4%); Chile (1087, 17.2%); Rwanda (1143, 60.2%); West Bank and Gaza (1541, 54.0%); Qatar (2311, 9.1%); Bangladesh (3269, 77.4%); Tajikistan (8438, 57.8%); Nicaragua (13269, 60.7%); Sudan (30666, 84.6%); Central African Republic (39118, 63.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (2): PR (983, 94.5%); MI (4011, 92.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (2): NT, YT (eradicated)

There are now no Canadian provinces in which the number of active cases has declined over the past week. P.E.I. was the last holdout, but when they jumped from 3 to 5 cases today, as a result of two unrelated men testing positive after returning from travel outside the Atlantic bubble, the island joined the rest of the country.

In Toronto and in Ontario, while numbers are up since a week ago, they have not been increasing steadily day by day. I am concerned that this may be an artifact of how we have changed our testing practices recently. Two months ago, anyone who wanted a test got it, most had their results back within 24 hours, and only 0.3% were testing positive. Now, it's difficult to get a test, you have only an 11% chance of getting your results back within 24 hours, and those that do get their results are returning 3.0% positive.

In the past week, we have seen 85 new hospitalisations, of whom we expect on average 28 to die. If the infection fatality rate if 0.5%-1.0%, then those 28 would represent 2800-5600 newly infected patients per week. In recent data, fatalities are first hospitalized an average of five days after their (infectious) episode dates, and instead during the seven-day period ending five days ago only 1,850 new confirmed or probable cases were reported. So lack of testing is resulting in underreporting of cases by a factor of 1.5 to 3.0.

Doing the same calculations two months ago, for the week ending August 11th, we saw 3 new hospitalisations and expected one death, corresponding to 100-200 new cases in the week ending August 6th. The actual number was 115, so if we missed any it was relatively much fewer.

So bearing that in mind, Toronto reported only 140 new cases today (it's a holiday weekend, so testing might have been reduced), from which I infer that the actual number is in the range of 200-400. We had one death, and 258 reported recoveries, and our official active case count dropped to 2,392 (and I'd estimate 3,500-7,000).

Today's chart plots the growth in school cases in Toronto and Ontario since schools reopened, and compares them to the active case counts in the general population. You can see Toronto and Ontario's active numbers apparently starting to level off.

Stay safe.

2020-10-10

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (160HI→149HI), Spain (249HI→249HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (471HI→462HI), Brazil (536HI→557HI), California (807HI→801HI), New York (906HI→909HI), South Africa (1558HI→1608HI), Sweden (4→4), U.K. (5→4), Romania (15→13), Malta (17→14), Toronto (27→24), Austria (27→26), Poland (42→37), Mexico (45→45), Italy (55→48), Canada (55→57), Iran (64→63), Ontario (79→76), Germany (94→88), Malaysia (96→96), Norway (129→119), Indonesia (159→158), Turkey (196→192), Japan (466→454), New Zealand (2014→2492), Australia (3609→3404), China (31606→28660)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Malta, Poland, Italy, Germany, Norway, Turkey

Worse: Romania, Toronto, Ontario

The same: U.K., Austria, Iran, Indonesia

Better: Spain, Sweden, Mexico, Canada, Malaysia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (74→74, 1.0%), Thailand (229→82, 8.7%), Denmark (305→336, 82.1%), South Korea (141→435, 21.6%), Louisiana (1370→500, 21.4%), Israel (409→1822, 85.9%), India (1289→2086, 86.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (59): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.4%); Kosovo (14, 29.9%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 15.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 21.9%); Bhutan (15, 22.4%); Niger (20, 1.8%); Mongolia (27, 4.5%); Seychelles (37, 4.5%); Djibouti (42, 0.3%); Ghana (59, 4.8%); Comoros (63, 12.5%); Madagascar (70, 12.5%); Mauritania (80, 4.4%); Cuba (118, 45.3%); Kenya (130, 62.8%); Eswatini (140, 16.4%); Botswana (158, 77.6%); Monaco (174, 35.6%); Mozambique (235, 74.8%); Cameroon (262, 15.8%); United Arab Emirates (333, 51.7%); Senegal (367, 39.2%); Guyana (395, 87.2%); Bahrain (396, 60.3%); Uzbekistan (406, 26.9%); Mauritius (439, 10.7%); Malawi (448, 48.0%); Venezuela (552, 64.2%); Gabon (635, 22.7%); Burkina Faso (677, 94.8%); Saudi Arabia (715, 14.6%); Haiti (716, 51.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (722, 81.7%); Iraq (865, 91.8%); El Salvador (875, 41.4%); Peru (891, 47.5%); Kazakhstan (897, 8.8%); Bolivia (954, 70.6%); Kuwait (1054, 45.4%); Chile (1087, 17.2%); Rwanda (1143, 60.2%); West Bank and Gaza (1541, 54.0%); Qatar (2311, 9.1%); Bangladesh (3269, 77.4%); Tajikistan (8438, 57.8%); Nicaragua (13269, 60.7%); Sudan (30666, 84.6%); Central African Republic (39118, 63.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (3): VI (265, 6.1%); PR (1700, 96.3%); MA (1934, 32.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (3): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%)

There were more than 50,000 new cases for a second day in a row in the United States, for the first time since mid-August. Active cases are on the rise in every state except for Massachusetts.

17 new hospitalizations in Toronto brought us up to 102, the first time we've been over 100 since July 25th. To be clear, there were 95 COVID-19 patients in hospital yesterday, so 10 must have either been discharged or died. With apologies to the five Torontonians reported to have died today, I think the hospitalization figures are the most important ones to watch, as the next tipping point we are heading toward is when we run out of hospital beds and go back to being unable to provide the best medical care to those who need it.

383 new cases in Toronto, five deaths, and 269 recoveries bring us to 2,511 active cases. That's close enough to where we peaked in April to be well within the margin of actual vs confirmed cases. If we followed the same curve as the first wave, we would be back down to our low August numbers by February; it's unlikely though, with schools and workplaces open, and colder weather on its way.

809 new cases in Ontario, seven deaths, and 700 recoveries give us a record 5,754 active cases.

Today's chart is an update of the Canadian provinces and territories chart based on CMAJ data, showing the continuing recent spike in New Brunswick, possible levelling in Quebec, slowing down in Ontario, and steady increases in Alberta and Manitoba. Active cases have increased over the past seven days in every province except for P.E.I.

Stay safe.

2020-10-09

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: France (0→160HI), Spain (252HI→249HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (485HI→471HI), California (807HI→807HI), New York (906HI→906HI), South Africa (1558HI→1558HI), Sweden (6→4), U.K. (6→5), Romania (17→15), Malta (19→17), Austria (29→27), Toronto (27→27), Poland (48→42), Mexico (46→45), Canada (60→55), Italy (64→55), Iran (66→64), Ontario (82→79), Germany (104→94), Malaysia (97→96), Norway (128→129), Indonesia (156→159), Turkey (199→196), Japan (470→466), New Zealand (2348→2014), China (35644→31606)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Sweden, Poland, Canada, Italy, Germany

Worse: Spain, Romania, Malta, Austria, Iran, Ontario, Turkey

The same: U.K., Mexico, Malaysia

Better: Toronto, Norway, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (216→74, 1.1%), South Korea (183→141, 21.6%), Thailand (206→229, 8.8%), Denmark (409→305, 84.7%), Israel (373→409, 85.5%), India (1506→1289, 87.8%), Louisiana (1243→1370, 21.4%), Australia (8706→7174, 14.5%), Brazil (4859→9737, 65.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (68): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Brunei (11, 0.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 50.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 6.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Somalia (14, 55.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (25, 2.0%); Monaco (34, 32.4%); Djibouti (42, 0.3%); Madagascar (55, 14.0%); Nicaragua (61, 60.7%); Bhutan (84, 57.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (87, 3.9%); Kenya (93, 56.9%); Cuba (109, 49.8%); Ghana (134, 6.0%); Botswana (158, 77.6%); Mozambique (164, 77.4%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); Eswatini (183, 17.9%); Mauritania (193, 5.5%); Kosovo (225, 28.8%); Gabon (228, 22.9%); Cameroon (262, 15.8%); Peru (283, 44.3%); United Arab Emirates (304, 53.5%); Uganda (323, 88.6%); Namibia (365, 43.0%); Senegal (369, 40.9%); Montenegro (405, 91.6%); Pakistan (424, 8.0%); Venezuela (459, 66.6%); Cabo Verde (467, 81.0%); Malawi (499, 48.3%); Luxembourg (531, 48.8%); Saudi Arabia (601, 14.9%); Uzbekistan (603, 28.2%); Chile (605, 17.0%); Kazakhstan (620, 8.9%); Nigeria (976, 43.3%); Bahrain (984, 68.0%); Guinea-Bissau (1004, 77.4%); Bolivia (1042, 71.9%); Rwanda (1045, 60.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (1174, 84.2%); Burkina Faso (1404, 95.7%); Yemen (1431, 22.1%); Jamaica (1512, 91.3%); West Bank and Gaza (1538, 53.8%); El Salvador (1597, 42.6%); Zimbabwe (1617, 44.7%); Guyana (1649, 93.0%); Iraq (2424, 96.7%); Maldives (2671, 40.4%); Bangladesh (4480, 78.0%); Central African Republic (7128, 63.6%); Tajikistan (11361, 58.3%); Sudan (11460, 84.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (6): MP (14, 87.7%); VI (265, 6.1%); MA (1192, 30.7%); SC (2705, 98.3%); ME (2796, 82.6%); PR (3477, 95.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.6%); PE (25, 15.0%); SK (793, 43.3%)

The list of U.S. states and territories whose active case numbers are decreasing (and so whose situation is improving) is down to 6. It wasn't that long ago that a small majority were improving, and the last time it was 6 was on July 26th. MP is the Northern Mariana Islands, VI are the Virgin Islands, and PR is Puerto Rico, so it's only 3 of the 50 states (Massachusetts, South Carolina and Maine) that have improved over the past week. And since SC is at 98.3% of its peak, it looks like it's not actually on the road to recovery.

Today's chart updates the one that shows the active cases in every U.S. state and territory, stacked by current active numbers.

Canada of course also has only three provinces that have been improving over the past week - Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, P.E.I. - after New Brunswick leapt from 5 to 37 cases in three days as a result of outbreaks in a nursing home and in a restaurant in what had been one of the safest provinces in the country. The recent new cases in Newfoundland and Labrador appear to be imported by travel, and then communicated through close contact.

Some people in Ontario have been asking why we are seeing so many cases up here too. Most people understand that it's because we pretended that we were done with the pandemic at the end of the summer, but it wasn't done with us. So we sent our kids back to school so that we could go back to work, and the economy could go back to normal. Except that now our hospitals are filling up (even the official numbers say they will be full in 30 days), and our schools are closing because our kids are sick, and people can't go to work because they're sick or someone they're close to is sick.

So as of tonight, indoor restaurant seating, sports activities, and performances must close for 28 days in affected areas such as Toronto; those who wish to infect others should go to schools, places of worship, daycares, after-school programmes, or small social gatherings.

333 new cases in Toronto, 5 more deaths, and 248 recoveries, so we are back up to 2,402 known active cases. Only 4 more cases in 2 schools, bringing us to 173 cases in 127 schools (of which 7 are in outbreak status).

Elsewhere in the province, Halton, Hamilton, Middlesex-London, Peel, Simcoe Muskoka, and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph districts all had their worst days (most new cases) since spring (possibly ever), as did the province itself with its record-setting 939 cases.

Stay safe.

2020-10-08

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Spain (263HI→252HI), Alabama (408HI→408HI), U.S. (489HI→485HI), California (825HI→807HI), New York (947HI→906HI), France (1→0), Sweden (8→6), U.K. (7→6), Romania (19→17), Malta (21→19), Toronto (28→27), Austria (32→29), Poland (55→48), Canada (64→60), Italy (71→64), Iran (69→66), Ontario (88→82), Malaysia (99→97), Germany (115→104), Indonesia (159→156), Turkey (204→199), China (35644→35644)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Sweden, Poland, Canada, Italy, Ontario, Germany, Turkey

Worse: Romania, Malta, Austria, Iran, Malaysia, Indonesia

The same: France, U.K., Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: South Korea (243→183, 22.3%), Thailand (new→206, 8.5%), Singapore (120→216, 1.3%), Japan (3639→336, 36.6%), New Zealand (168→348, 4.2%), Israel (383→373, 87.1%), Mexico (311→404, 68.9%), Denmark (574→409, 87.9%), Louisiana (new→1243, 20.9%), India (1439→1506, 88.7%), Norway (new→4543, 72.6%), Brazil (1883→4859, 66.1%), Australia (3956→8706, 14.6%), South Africa (3813→9774, 28.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (81): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Lucia (1, 0.0%); Brunei (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 18.2%); Botswana (14, 94.1%); Cameroon (14, 17.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 50.0%); Eritrea (14, 29.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vietnam (14, 8.4%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Zambia (14, 24.5%); Niger (20, 1.8%); Liberia (36, 6.1%); Monaco (46, 37.2%); Nicaragua (61, 60.7%); Madagascar (87, 16.2%); Kenya (89, 55.3%); Ecuador (106, 36.1%); Djibouti (110, 0.4%); Sao Tome and Principe (142, 3.4%); Cuba (157, 53.5%); Mozambique (157, 76.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (167, 4.3%); Bahrain (175, 61.0%); Mauritania (197, 5.9%); Equatorial Guinea (198, 3.0%); Kosovo (210, 28.8%); Gabon (228, 22.9%); Eswatini (239, 19.1%); Peru (239, 45.5%); Philippines (290, 60.1%); Pakistan (296, 7.7%); Uganda (300, 88.9%); West Bank and Gaza (338, 55.7%); Senegal (448, 42.2%); Ghana (469, 7.4%); Venezuela (476, 67.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (485, 79.7%); Zimbabwe (498, 43.7%); Montenegro (524, 92.5%); Luxembourg (531, 48.8%); Namibia (566, 43.5%); Saudi Arabia (630, 15.2%); Suriname (650, 9.1%); Yemen (721, 22.1%); Maldives (733, 38.8%); United Arab Emirates (759, 57.5%); Kazakhstan (776, 9.0%); Bhutan (975, 61.2%); Guinea-Bissau (1004, 77.4%); Morocco (1042, 96.0%); Rwanda (1135, 60.9%); Bolivia (1185, 72.6%); Nigeria (1201, 43.5%); Jamaica (1363, 93.1%); Haiti (1408, 54.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (1467, 84.2%); El Salvador (1472, 42.9%); Burkina Faso (1537, 97.2%); Chile (1589, 17.2%); Malawi (1901, 50.4%); Iraq (2312, 97.6%); Dominican Republic (2840, 64.9%); Tajikistan (3405, 58.1%); Bangladesh (3590, 78.2%); Guatemala (3620, 46.6%); Kuwait (3768, 46.3%); Gambia (5272, 54.4%); Sudan (7168, 85.0%); Central African Republic (7843, 63.7%); Lesotho (24294, 93.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (7): VI (14, 5.4%); MA (685, 28.7%); AR (1811, 86.0%); NC (3136, 90.1%); SC (3821, 98.3%); WV (4832, 98.3%); MN (8980, 96.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 2.1%); NS (14, 0.6%); PE (25, 15.0%); SK (335, 44.5%)

France reached the 1% cumulative confirmed/probable mark today. I thought we would be done with this pandemic before any country reached the 1% mark, because so many things would have to go wrong for that to happen, and now I'm not even sure we'll avoid it in Canada.

Today's chart shows the whole world, plotting the original cumulative case proportion against rate of increase, to illustrate how many countries have made it past 1% and are heading quickly to 10% and beyond.

In Toronto, we had 271 new confirmed cases, no deaths (for the first time in a week and a half), and 256 recoveries, inching us back up to 2,322 active cases. However, our recent case fatality rate is still above 10%, hospitalization numbers are steadily increasing (89 now compared to 65 at the end of last month), and we are seeing one new case for every nine cases we know about, so it seems improbable that the cases that are confirmed represent the majority of the actual cases. Of those 271 new cases, 21 were reported in publicly funded schools in Toronto, which now have a total of 169 cases in 125 schools.

In Ontario, a record 797 new cases (including a record 182 in Ottawa), 4 deaths and 695 recoveries increased our active case count again, to 5,442. School cases were up 69 to 610 in 415 schools.

Stay safe.

2020-10-07

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Spain (263HI→263HI), Alabama (400HI→408HI), U.S. (495HI→489HI), Louisiana (687HI→779HI), California (786HI→825HI), New York (1012HI→947HI), France (4→1), U.K. (11→7), Sweden (18→8), Romania (23→19), Malta (27→21), Toronto (27→28), Austria (36→32), Poland (65→55), Canada (67→64), Iran (71→69), Italy (85→71), Ontario (87→88), Malaysia (151→99), Germany (131→115), Norway (164→139), Indonesia (158→159), Turkey (209→204), Thailand (2918→2587), China (31272→35644)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, U.K., Sweden, Romania, Malta, Austria, Poland, Italy, Malaysia, Germany, Norway, Turkey

Worse: Canada, Iran

Better: Spain, Toronto, Ontario, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (105→120, 1.3%), New Zealand (14→168, 4.0%), South Korea (836→243, 23.2%), Mexico (644→311, 66.2%), Israel (527→383, 88.2%), Denmark (1429→574, 91.7%), India (2315→1439, 89.2%), Brazil (1060→1883, 65.4%), Japan (1068→3639, 37.2%), South Africa (19169→3813, 28.4%), Australia (994→3956, 14.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (81): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Lucia (2, 0.0%); Brunei (13, 0.0%); Benin (14, 41.6%); Botswana (14, 94.1%); Cameroon (14, 17.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 50.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Papua New Guinea (17, 3.0%); Liberia (56, 7.0%); Monaco (61, 38.9%); Nicaragua (61, 60.8%); Cuba (82, 56.8%); Ecuador (84, 31.6%); Antigua and Barbuda (94, 18.2%); Cote d'Ivoire (96, 4.0%); Djibouti (110, 0.4%); Mauritania (147, 5.8%); Mauritius (158, 11.1%); Madagascar (167, 18.4%); Yemen (176, 21.9%); Equatorial Guinea (198, 3.0%); Bhutan (239, 58.8%); Bahrain (240, 66.0%); West Bank and Gaza (260, 55.3%); Eswatini (268, 19.7%); Philippines (271, 57.3%); Mozambique (315, 86.6%); Gabon (323, 23.7%); Uganda (331, 87.7%); Luxembourg (346, 47.3%); Peru (394, 50.1%); Senegal (427, 42.8%); Uzbekistan (435, 29.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (463, 79.4%); Saudi Arabia (568, 15.4%); Venezuela (616, 68.8%); Zimbabwe (644, 43.6%); Vietnam (710, 8.1%); Lesotho (792, 90.3%); Kazakhstan (936, 9.1%); Jamaica (944, 93.5%); Namibia (944, 44.0%); Pakistan (953, 8.2%); Czechia (995, 95.6%); Guinea-Bissau (1004, 77.4%); El Salvador (1027, 43.1%); Nigeria (1073, 43.2%); Morocco (1085, 96.2%); South Sudan (1135, 65.0%); Guatemala (1150, 45.2%); Maldives (1169, 40.4%); Guyana (1199, 94.2%); Dominican Republic (1271, 64.4%); Iraq (1504, 96.9%); United Arab Emirates (1697, 58.2%); Rwanda (1730, 61.9%); Bolivia (1832, 73.9%); Azerbaijan (2196, 18.7%); Gambia (2201, 54.5%); Montenegro (2270, 96.1%); Tajikistan (2271, 58.0%); Kuwait (2469, 47.1%); Haiti (2878, 54.1%); Argentina (3267, 98.5%); Bangladesh (3717, 78.5%); Sudan (3824, 84.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (4966, 85.4%); Qatar (14013, 9.2%); Malawi (16374, 51.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): VI (14, 5.1%); MP (117, 87.7%); MN (344, 89.3%); AR (410, 81.3%); NC (548, 82.7%); MA (941, 27.6%); ND (1708, 97.9%); SC (4201, 97.7%); TX (5762, 45.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.6%); SK (321, 43.0%)

The 24-hour COVID-19 test turnaround rate in Toronto is down to 10%, despite our tests being restricted to those who are either very likely to be positive, or who have to be very sure that they aren't. The positivity rate is up to 3%, fewer than 30% of positive cases are being contacted within 24 hours of results being available, and the city has temporarily given up on tracking statistics on contact tracing.

The known number of active cases has dropped from 2,373 to 2,307, so either cases are actually decreasing, or the proportion of cases that are going undetected is increasing. People are still dying - now for the ninth consecutive day, which only tells us that numbers weren't going down quickly a couple of weeks ago.

Across the province, there were new cases in three of seven northern districts, 60% more cases than yesterday in the east, 5% more in the central east, 18 instead of 5 new cases in the southwest, and a drop from 90 to 76 cases in the central west.

School cases in Toronto are up to 148 in 113 schools now, 159 in 86 in Ottawa, 541 in 379 across the province.

There are four active cases currently reported in our neighbourhood, with the last transmission taking place on September 30th: a man in his 40s who contracted it via an unknown route, another two in their 30s and 40s confirmed to be community transmission, and a woman in her 50s through close contact.

Today's chart is the weekly choropleth showing where this week's sporadic cases have been reported. It's looking more randomly mottled than in past weeks. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-10-06

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Spain (263HI→263HI), Alabama (400HI→400HI), U.S. (495HI→495HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), California (786HI→786HI), New York (1012HI→1012HI), France (4→4), U.K. (11→11), Sweden (18→18), Romania (23→23), Malta (27→27), Toronto (26→27), Austria (36→36), Poland (65→65), Canada (67→67), Iran (71→71), Italy (85→85), Ontario (87→87), Germany (131→131), Malaysia (151→151), Indonesia (158→158), Norway (164→164), Turkey (209→209), Thailand (2918→2918), China (31272→31272)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Better: Spain, France, U.K., Sweden, Romania, Malta, Toronto, Austria, Poland, Canada, Iran, Italy, Ontario, Germany, Malaysia, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (62→14, 4.6%), Singapore (139→105, 1.4%), Israel (new→527, 91.4%), Mexico (15449→644, 71.0%), South Korea (new→836, 25.3%), Australia (736→994, 14.8%), Brazil (new→1060, 64.0%), Japan (1226→1068, 36.9%), Denmark (854→1429, 95.1%), India (8626→2315, 90.3%), South Africa (new→19169, 28.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Lucia (3, 0.0%); Benin (14, 41.6%); Botswana (14, 94.1%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Dominica (14, 50.0%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 3.3%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 99.3%); Papua New Guinea (14, 2.6%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 3.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mauritius (49, 7.9%); Djibouti (50, 0.3%); Vietnam (79, 8.1%); Ecuador (81, 29.3%); Mauritania (85, 5.7%); Egypt (98, 1.2%); Cameroon (104, 17.7%); Yemen (107, 21.7%); Cuba (112, 57.7%); Eswatini (147, 20.2%); Liberia (162, 7.8%); Bhutan (166, 60.0%); Luxembourg (180, 45.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (186, 4.5%); Gabon (214, 23.7%); Zambia (220, 20.1%); Monaco (233, 45.3%); West Bank and Gaza (264, 54.9%); Philippines (269, 55.1%); Senegal (295, 43.9%); Bahrain (297, 70.5%); Madagascar (398, 20.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (518, 79.3%); Saudi Arabia (541, 15.6%); Lesotho (623, 90.3%); Zimbabwe (625, 43.6%); Kuwait (649, 46.8%); Venezuela (664, 70.6%); Namibia (795, 47.2%); Mozambique (878, 91.0%); Guinea (909, 33.9%); Trinidad and Tobago (938, 84.9%); Jamaica (939, 93.4%); Gambia (979, 54.0%); Guatemala (1073, 45.0%); Azerbaijan (1166, 18.5%); Pakistan (1178, 8.2%); Morocco (1183, 93.7%); El Salvador (1216, 43.4%); Maldives (1277, 39.9%); Kazakhstan (1309, 9.3%); Haiti (1346, 54.4%); South Sudan (1407, 65.0%); Czechia (1431, 90.2%); Rwanda (1522, 62.2%); Peru (1662, 53.1%); Costa Rica (1752, 96.9%); Uzbekistan (1763, 29.6%); Dominican Republic (2123, 65.3%); Tajikistan (2278, 58.2%); Bolivia (2383, 74.4%); Malawi (2548, 51.6%); Iraq (2803, 97.1%); Argentina (3021, 96.3%); United Arab Emirates (3031, 58.7%); Bangladesh (3712, 78.7%); Qatar (4432, 9.1%); Nigeria (7916, 44.6%); Sudan (8246, 85.1%); Guinea-Bissau (23437, 77.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): VI (15, 6.4%); MP (117, 87.7%); MN (417, 90.5%); AR (482, 92.0%); NC (653, 77.4%); ND (2369, 97.2%); MI (2634, 98.3%); PR (4341, 98.7%); ME (16513, 81.8%); GA (46819, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 6.8%); NS (14, 0.6%); SK (402, 43.3%)

We had 217 new confirmed cases in Toronto, 2 deaths, and 219 recoveries, so our active case count dropped for the first time since September 1st, to 2,373. I took my father to a medical clinic today, my son to get his eyeglasses replaced, and then went to buy groceries for dinner. The only people I saw who was not fully masked while I were my father whenever the mask fell off his nose (apologies to his doctor), and two out of maybe 100 pedestrians on the Danforth. People are being careful, because our numbers are high and uncertain, and testing is no longer generally available. I suspect our numbers will look good this week, partly because of inadequate testing, partly because of people actually being careful, but there will be a lot of transmission at Thanksgiving dinners, and that deaths and hospital bed counts will eventually indicate the continuing severity of the situation.

However, an "essential visitor" at my aunts' nursing home ward tested positive for COVID-19 today, which under current protocols means that everyone in the ward needs to be retested.

We could avoid this by having everyone stay home for four weeks. Instead, we have a premier who was planning on getting a group of ten people together for Thanksgiving at his house this weekend, until reporters (and his wife) pointed out that this was against current government recommendations. Premier Ford is also responding to our critical lack of testing capacity by shipping our test samples to a California lab for processing. I was wondering how it was that California had excess testing capacity; a CTV News article pointed out that the lab in question (Quest Diagnostics) likely had excess capacity due to government contracts that had been cancelled in Florida due to an "egregious failure" in their ability to process tests in a timely manner.

Overall active numbers in Ontario were down slightly on the strength of Toronto figures, with 548 new cases, 7 deaths and 546 recoveries bringing us to 5,469 active cases. Ottawa numbers are down in the last few days, while numbers are up in much of the Central West, including Hamilton, Halton, Niagara and Waterloo.

Today's chart lists countries whose active cases have changed by more than 3,000 in the past week. It's inspirational to see countries like India, Brazil and Peru making significant progress against the pandemic.

Stay safe.

2020-10-05

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (130HI→115HI), Spain (227HI→263HI), Alabama (302HI→400HI), U.S. (497HI→495HI), Brazil (523HI→527HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), California (793HI→786HI), New York (1012HI→1012HI), South Africa (1640HI→1593HI), France (4→4), U.K. (13→11), Sweden (18→18), Romania (24→23), Toronto (26→26), Malta (31→27), Austria (38→36), Poland (68→65), Canada (71→67), Iran (73→71), Italy (89→85), Ontario (85→87), Germany (138→131), Malaysia (181→151), Indonesia (157→158), Norway (170→164), Turkey (213→209), South Korea (1017→1017), Thailand (2111→2918), China (31269→31272)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Malta, Canada, Italy, Germany, Malaysia, Norway, Turkey

Worse: U.K., Austria, Poland, Iran

The same: Romania

Better: France, Sweden, Toronto, Ontario, Indonesia

Much better: Spain, Alabama

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (250→62, 4.3%), Singapore (146→139, 1.5%), Australia (687→736, 14.6%), Denmark (1784→854, 95.7%), Japan (new→1226, 36.5%), India (19267→8626, 91.8%), Mexico (new→15449, 70.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Lucia (4, 0.0%); Benin (14, 41.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 63.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (14, 5.1%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea (14, 35.0%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 99.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Papua New Guinea (16, 2.6%); Seychelles (25, 3.4%); Equatorial Guinea (27, 3.3%); Chad (29, 14.0%); Egypt (33, 1.0%); Mauritius (35, 7.1%); Liberia (57, 6.5%); Djibouti (58, 0.4%); Eswatini (78, 20.5%); Mauritania (89, 6.2%); Ecuador (95, 28.5%); Vietnam (99, 8.4%); Cameroon (104, 17.7%); Yemen (104, 22.4%); Monaco (136, 50.2%); Ghana (138, 7.4%); Malawi (138, 51.3%); Switzerland (141, 45.3%); West Bank and Gaza (197, 55.2%); Bahrain (232, 70.6%); Philippines (241, 52.5%); Senegal (271, 44.7%); Andorra (313, 79.8%); Peru (320, 52.4%); Cuba (393, 63.8%); Haiti (485, 54.2%); Sri Lanka (497, 13.8%); Botswana (516, 94.1%); Jamaica (556, 93.4%); Kuwait (559, 46.5%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (568, 80.6%); Gambia (594, 54.0%); Azerbaijan (623, 18.5%); Saudi Arabia (625, 15.9%); Gabon (643, 25.9%); Luxembourg (667, 51.7%); Madagascar (689, 23.1%); Guyana (711, 94.8%); Mozambique (751, 95.4%); Venezuela (876, 72.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (1061, 86.6%); El Salvador (1214, 43.6%); Namibia (1251, 47.1%); Rwanda (1340, 62.5%); Kazakhstan (1385, 9.4%); South Sudan (1569, 65.5%); Dominican Republic (1920, 65.4%); Maldives (2073, 40.8%); Bolivia (2332, 75.0%); Qatar (2441, 9.1%); Tajikistan (2642, 58.5%); Uzbekistan (3305, 29.9%); Bangladesh (3742, 78.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (6141, 7.5%); Zimbabwe (6836, 45.6%); Panama (8324, 82.4%); Guatemala (11413, 45.9%); Sudan (61732, 85.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): VI (115, 14.2%); NC (725, 72.9%); AR (845, 84.2%); MP (1436, 87.7%); PR (1775, 97.0%); MI (2057, 95.3%); OK (6583, 95.5%); GA (10147, 98.7%); AZ (33176, 85.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 4.1%); PE (14, 10.0%); AB (2105, 49.9%)

Israel looks like its massive third wave might be peaking: it has had between 66,000 and 73,000 active cases daily for the past nine days, without a clear upward or downward trend.

California's active numbers are climbing extremely slowly, but still climbing at about 1% per week.

The U.K.'s active case curve looks terrifyingly vertical, but is apparently the result of missing cases being added to the database, which is only mildly alarming.

Malta appears to be flattening its curve the wrong way, slowing the descent from its fourth wave, and might soon start a fifth one.

In Ontario, there were 48 new cases of COVID-19 in schools, for a new total of 449, spread across 335 schools. Of those, 13 were in Toronto, which now has 116 cases in 94 schools. We had 615 new cases, 5 deaths and 541 recoveries, raising our active case count to 5,474. Premier Ford, when asked to comment on desperate pleas by medical and public health officials to close down cities to stop transmission, replied "Show me the evidence, hard, hard evidence". I have often thought that Toronto would be better off not being a part of Ontario (typical Torontonian point-of-view), but I never thought I would see the day when the provincial government was deliberately killing Torontonians with policy.

In Toronto, 279 new cases, 3 deaths, and 218 recoveries pushed our active cases up to 2,390. The 1,916 new cases we've had in the past seven days are 82% more than the previous seven days. On average, there is one new case each day now for every 8 confirmed, active cases. Either transmission is completely out of control because our contact tracing system has failed (27.7% of recent cases were contacted within 24 hours), and our R number is approaching 2 (14 days of infectiousness times 1/8 transmissions per day = 14/8 = 1.75), or our failed testing system (12% of tests completed within 24 hours) has left a large, number of unreported active cases causing the transmission. Or both.

Today's chart graphs active cases in all six of these regions.

Stay safe.

2020-10-04

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (119HI→130HI), Spain (227HI→227HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (499HI→497HI), Brazil (506HI→523HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), California (793HI→793HI), New York (1334HI→1012HI), South Africa (1640HI→1640HI), France (5→4), U.K. (21→13), Sweden (18→18), Romania (25→24), Toronto (27→26), Austria (30→38), Poland (71→68), Canada (72→71), Iran (74→73), Ontario (86→85), Mexico (86→88), Italy (95→89), Germany (140→138), Indonesia (157→157), Norway (167→170), Malaysia (198→181), Turkey (212→213), Japan (433→439), South Korea (997→1017), Thailand (2144→2111)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Italy, Malaysia

Worse: Poland, Germany

The same: France, Romania, Toronto, Canada, Iran, Ontario

Better: Spain, Alabama, Sweden, Mexico, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey

Much better: Israel, Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (104→146, 1.5%), Malta (96→213, 65.1%), New Zealand (60→250, 4.4%), Australia (399→687, 14.7%), China (554→787, 0.6%), Denmark (11206→1784, 96.4%), India (21203→19267, 92.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (1, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (5, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (14, 5.0%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 99.3%); Oman (14, 39.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Papua New Guinea (16, 2.6%); Egypt (22, 1.0%); Equatorial Guinea (27, 3.3%); Chad (30, 13.5%); Mongolia (35, 5.5%); Eswatini (71, 21.3%); Vietnam (74, 8.4%); Yemen (90, 22.8%); Cameroon (104, 17.7%); Bhutan (119, 62.4%); Andorra (123, 79.8%); Djibouti (126, 0.4%); Malawi (130, 51.2%); Mauritania (133, 6.6%); Madagascar (140, 22.5%); Switzerland (173, 45.4%); Niger (229, 3.1%); Senegal (242, 45.4%); Monaco (274, 51.8%); Zimbabwe (283, 46.6%); Somalia (285, 42.7%); Gabon (305, 25.9%); Bahrain (308, 75.1%); West Bank and Gaza (337, 62.3%); Ghana (392, 7.8%); Peru (398, 55.5%); Haiti (446, 55.3%); Botswana (516, 94.1%); Venezuela (561, 72.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (562, 86.1%); Saudi Arabia (570, 16.1%); Kuwait (578, 46.8%); Azerbaijan (595, 18.6%); Gambia (648, 54.7%); Jamaica (772, 95.6%); Sri Lanka (957, 13.5%); South Sudan (965, 64.5%); El Salvador (1216, 44.0%); Rwanda (1302, 62.6%); Namibia (1314, 46.1%); Dominican Republic (1508, 65.9%); Kazakhstan (1856, 9.4%); Qatar (1967, 9.1%); Guyana (2022, 96.6%); Nigeria (2023, 44.9%); Luxembourg (2403, 51.7%); Mozambique (2671, 94.6%); Afghanistan (3245, 35.7%); Bolivia (3294, 75.4%); Guinea (3437, 35.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3484, 86.0%); Panama (3710, 82.4%); Tajikistan (3821, 58.6%); Bangladesh (4157, 79.3%); Cuba (5043, 63.6%); Uzbekistan (9180, 30.4%); Colombia (11134, 37.7%); Maldives (17313, 40.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): MP (155, 83.0%); VI (381, 14.2%); PR (1114, 96.3%); MI (1253, 91.5%); OK (1275, 94.6%); AZ (3394, 84.8%); RI (4339, 97.4%); TN (4377, 34.9%); GA (10677, 98.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 4.1%); PE (14, 10.0%); AB (2105, 49.9%)

There were 189 new cases reported today in Toronto, or 1 for about every 12 of the 2,332 active cases. Miraculously, this was the first day since September 1st didn't increase. Instead, with three tragic deaths and 186 recoveries, we stayed even.

Ontario also saw a relatively small increase in new cases by recent standards, with 566 new cases, 7 deaths, and 534 recoveries, raising us to 5,405 active cases.

Today's chart updates one from September 10th, showing the 14 countries that have hit the 100,000 active case mark, and their daily proportion of the collective total. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-10-03

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (122HI→119HI), Spain (227HI→227HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (496HI→499HI), California (725HI→793HI), New York (1334HI→1334HI), France (6→5), Sweden (18→18), U.K. (21→21), Romania (23→25), Toronto (29→27), Poland (66→71), Canada (76→72), Iran (75→74), Mexico (85→86), Ontario (91→86), Italy (102→95), Germany (143→140), Indonesia (153→157), Norway (160→167), Malaysia (239→198), Japan (421→433), Thailand (2333→2144)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Canada, Ontario, Italy, Malaysia

Worse: Israel, Toronto, Germany

The same: France, Iran

Better: Spain, Alabama, Sweden, U.K., Poland, Mexico, Indonesia, Norway

Much better: Romania

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (72→60, 4.4%), Malta (105→96, 62.1%), Singapore (111→104, 1.6%), Louisiana (191→156, 19.8%), Australia (450→399, 14.7%), China (666→554, 0.6%), Austria (3576→1611, 89.8%), South Africa (2278→3191, 28.7%), Brazil (1478→6705, 67.3%), Turkey (9095→6717, 43.6%), Denmark (new→11206, 97.9%), India (2695→21203, 92.9%), South Korea (385→29863, 26.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (2, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (6, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 2.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Egypt (19, 1.1%); Equatorial Guinea (23, 3.3%); Mongolia (35, 5.5%); Chad (36, 14.0%); Niger (69, 2.7%); Bhutan (72, 63.5%); Eswatini (73, 21.7%); Comoros (74, 10.6%); Madagascar (76, 21.9%); Eritrea (83, 20.3%); Cameroon (104, 17.7%); Yemen (107, 24.8%); Monaco (110, 50.2%); Andorra (123, 79.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (126, 3.1%); Malawi (132, 51.4%); Mauritania (134, 6.8%); Switzerland (198, 45.4%); Senegal (220, 46.3%); Ghana (252, 7.1%); Zimbabwe (260, 45.8%); West Bank and Gaza (281, 64.0%); Somalia (285, 42.7%); Sri Lanka (300, 13.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (306, 86.0%); Bahrain (307, 76.9%); Gabon (319, 25.9%); Namibia (338, 45.6%); Colombia (347, 36.1%); Vietnam (370, 8.4%); Peru (372, 56.7%); Haiti (383, 54.7%); Botswana (516, 94.1%); Azerbaijan (518, 19.0%); Venezuela (598, 73.3%); El Salvador (611, 44.6%); Saudi Arabia (626, 16.5%); Gambia (684, 55.2%); Georgia (900, 95.1%); Kuwait (1021, 47.8%); Rwanda (1171, 63.0%); Afghanistan (1277, 35.7%); Dominican Republic (1295, 66.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1336, 86.0%); Burkina Faso (1522, 98.1%); Mozambique (1619, 96.7%); Maldives (1636, 41.5%); Panama (1986, 81.3%); Kazakhstan (2000, 9.5%); Qatar (2108, 9.2%); United Arab Emirates (2158, 59.5%); Tajikistan (2658, 58.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (2730, 5.2%); Bolivia (2931, 75.7%); Nicaragua (4525, 99.3%); Bangladesh (4752, 79.6%); Nigeria (8931, 44.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): VI (193, 16.9%); TN (761, 33.1%); PA (883, 80.9%); OK (955, 94.9%); AZ (2730, 84.8%); PR (4019, 97.9%); GA (12301, 98.8%); MI (21764, 91.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 8.2%); PE (14, 10.0%); AB (3872, 49.9%)

The nine cases reported in Ontario's North West District (all in the Northwestern Health Unit) surpassed the previous record of six set on June 21. This brings that health unit to about 1 case in every 5,000 people, which is about where Toronto was two weeks ago.

The North East district has seen a slow, steady, worsening, but its overall numbers are low enough due to low population density that it would only take one outbreak to catch up. East, Central East, and Toronto increased by 40-60% over the past week; the South West and Central West did not see a significant increase.

Across the country, B.C.'s active numbers have come down to 1,330 from 2,009 two weeks ago, but have been creeping up this week. Alberta has spent a month hovering around 1,500. Saskatchewan might have crested its fifth (!) wave, and has had about 140 cases for a week. Manitoba is climbing quickly and may overtake Alberta and B.C. in a week or two. Ontario might be slowing down a little but is still worsening; Quebec is pure exponential and about to overtake Ontario for the third time. The Atlantic bubble has single-digit nonzero numbers in each province, and there are no cases in the far north.

Today's chart shows active cases in Canada's provinces and territories on a semilog scale.

When I went to the farmer's market today, in the hardest-hit part of Toronto, the mood was quiet and tense. Merchants reported that sales were about half of normal; everyone I saw indoors was wearing a mask properly.

Stay safe.

2020-10-02

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (110HI→122HI), Spain (221HI→227HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (496HI→496HI), California (725HI→725HI), New York (1334HI→1334HI), France (7→6), Sweden (19→18), U.K. (22→21), Romania (26→23), Toronto (32→29), Denmark (30→30), Poland (73→66), Iran (76→75), Canada (82→76), Mexico (85→85), Ontario (99→91), Italy (107→102), Germany (148→143), Indonesia (149→153), Norway (174→160), Malaysia (283→239), Thailand (2463→2333)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Poland, Canada, Ontario, Italy, Germany, Norway, Malaysia

Worse: Romania, Toronto

The same: France, Sweden, U.K., Iran

Better: Spain, Alabama, Denmark, Mexico, Indonesia

Much better: Israel

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (72, no new data, 4.6%), Malta (105, no new data, 65.1%), Singapore (111, no new data, 1.7%), Louisiana (141→191, 19.8%), South Korea (385, no new data, 26.3%), Australia (450, no new data, 15.3%), China (666, no new data, 0.6%), Japan (681, no new data, 38.2%), Brazil (1478, no new data, 67.3%), South Africa (2278, no new data, 28.6%), India (2507→2695, 92.6%), Austria (3576, no new data, 90.1%), Turkey (9095, no new data, 43.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (3, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 13.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (14, 7.5%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.5%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Egypt (21, 1.5%); Liechtenstein (21, 8.7%); Equatorial Guinea (23, 3.3%); Chad (33, 12.8%); Mongolia (35, 5.5%); Niger (37, 2.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (46, 3.1%); Monaco (62, 48.6%); Comoros (74, 10.6%); Madagascar (82, 21.8%); Eritrea (83, 20.3%); Eswatini (104, 24.1%); Malawi (127, 52.2%); Colombia (166, 33.9%); West Bank and Gaza (167, 63.3%); Yemen (173, 26.7%); Uruguay (181, 67.3%); Bhutan (189, 67.1%); Mauritania (196, 7.5%); Ghana (208, 6.5%); Senegal (245, 49.1%); Zimbabwe (259, 45.9%); Peru (266, 54.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (275, 5.1%); Somalia (285, 42.7%); Haiti (312, 55.7%); El Salvador (320, 44.7%); Bahrain (332, 79.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (336, 87.9%); Switzerland (400, 45.0%); Azerbaijan (414, 19.0%); Maldives (432, 40.9%); Montenegro (450, 92.5%); Saudi Arabia (463, 16.8%); Guinea (536, 35.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (561, 85.2%); Gabon (636, 27.1%); Uzbekistan (688, 30.2%); Venezuela (725, 74.8%); Guyana (758, 94.9%); Georgia (813, 90.7%); United Arab Emirates (832, 59.5%); Gambia (840, 55.7%); Zambia (841, 22.7%); Sri Lanka (1028, 14.4%); Dominican Republic (1075, 66.7%); Afghanistan (1267, 35.6%); Tajikistan (1451, 58.9%); Rwanda (1836, 63.5%); Bolivia (2009, 75.8%); Kuwait (2088, 49.7%); Burkina Faso (2148, 96.4%); Kazakhstan (2380, 9.5%); Qatar (2407, 9.2%); Morocco (2428, 98.3%); Nicaragua (4525, 99.3%); Bangladesh (4648, 79.7%); Uganda (4843, 96.8%); Central African Republic (22219, 63.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): VI (38, 16.9%); TN (386, 33.7%); OK (860, 95.4%); IA (992, 82.0%); DC (1945, 71.4%); AZ (3112, 84.5%); GA (23091, 99.0%); VA (490884, 99.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (27, 6.8%); SK (1682, 45.8%)

Toronto's death count jumped by 80 cases today, but 78 of them were substantially delayed reports recently added.

Twelve new school cases brought us to 103 cases in 84 schools today.

Toronto's Medical Officer of Health asked provincial officials for a month-long suspension of all indoor dining and physical activity, and a ban on leaving one's home except for work, school, exercise and grocery shopping.

There were two more cases in the last two days for a total of six recent cases in our local neighbourhood.

The city's COVID-19 monitoring dashboard now places us in its most severe status (red), based on the following indicators individually being red: new cases averaging 236/day (target 30), new hospitalisations averaging 6.6/day (target 6), Rt = 1.2 (target <1), 14% of test results available within 24 hours (target 60%) and 32% within 48 hours (80%), 26.5% of newly confirmed cases then reached within 24 hours (90%).

Given that we no longer have a functioning testing system, it would be prudent for everyone who does not want to see COVID-19 transmitted to stay home.

The province responded by further limiting indoor group sizes, and now also requires masks in most workplace settings. It has also scrapped the idea of 10-person social circles, and says that everyone should where masks when near people with whom they do not live. Concern is rising that the healthcare system will be overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases very soon.

Ontario set a record with 732 new cases confirmed today. That's about one new case for every seven active cases.

Today's chart plots school cases in Toronto and Ontario together with correspondingly scaled active cases in the general population. The near-linear growth of a large number of active cases here indicates that what is being observed is only the small proportion that manage to get have their tests processed, and the actual number is probably growing at a faster, exponential rate.

Stay safe.

2020-10-01

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (102HI→110HI), Spain (216HI→221HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (504HI→496HI), California (720HI→725HI), New York (1402HI→1334HI), France (8→7), Sweden (18→19), U.K. (24→22), Romania (27→26), Denmark (30→30), Toronto (35→32), Poland (79→73), Iran (77→76), Canada (85→82), Mexico (85→85), Ontario (103→99), Italy (114→107), Germany (153→148), Indonesia (145→149), Norway (170→174), Malaysia (354→283), Thailand (2609→2463)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Poland, Ontario, Italy, Germany, Malaysia

Worse: U.K., Toronto, Canada

The same: France, Romania, Iran

Better: Israel, Spain, Alabama, Sweden, Denmark, Mexico, Indonesia, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (174→72, 4.6%), Malta (91→105, 65.1%), Singapore (139→111, 1.7%), Louisiana (150→141, 18.0%), South Korea (401→385, 26.3%), Australia (281→450, 15.3%), China (836→666, 0.6%), Japan (new→681, 38.2%), Brazil (712→1478, 67.3%), South Africa (1280→2278, 28.6%), India (3434→2507, 92.4%), Austria (new→3576, 90.1%), Turkey (new→9095, 43.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (3, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 13.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (14, 7.5%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.5%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Egypt (21, 1.5%); Liechtenstein (21, 8.7%); Equatorial Guinea (23, 3.3%); Chad (33, 12.8%); Mongolia (35, 5.5%); Niger (37, 2.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (46, 3.1%); Monaco (62, 48.6%); Comoros (74, 10.6%); Madagascar (82, 21.8%); Eritrea (83, 20.3%); Eswatini (104, 24.1%); Malawi (127, 52.2%); Colombia (166, 33.9%); West Bank and Gaza (167, 63.3%); Yemen (173, 26.7%); Uruguay (181, 67.3%); Bhutan (189, 67.1%); Mauritania (196, 7.5%); Ghana (208, 6.5%); Senegal (245, 49.1%); Zimbabwe (259, 45.9%); Peru (266, 54.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (275, 5.1%); Somalia (285, 42.7%); Haiti (312, 55.7%); El Salvador (320, 44.7%); Bahrain (332, 79.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (336, 87.9%); Switzerland (400, 45.0%); Azerbaijan (414, 19.0%); Maldives (432, 40.9%); Montenegro (450, 92.5%); Saudi Arabia (463, 16.8%); Guinea (536, 35.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (561, 85.2%); Gabon (636, 27.1%); Uzbekistan (688, 30.2%); Venezuela (725, 74.8%); Guyana (758, 94.9%); Georgia (813, 90.7%); United Arab Emirates (832, 59.5%); Gambia (840, 55.7%); Zambia (841, 22.7%); Sri Lanka (1028, 14.4%); Dominican Republic (1075, 66.7%); Afghanistan (1267, 35.6%); Tajikistan (1451, 58.9%); Rwanda (1836, 63.5%); Bolivia (2009, 75.8%); Kuwait (2088, 49.7%); Burkina Faso (2148, 96.4%); Kazakhstan (2380, 9.5%); Qatar (2407, 9.2%); Morocco (2428, 98.3%); Nicaragua (4525, 99.3%); Bangladesh (4648, 79.7%); Uganda (4843, 96.8%); Central African Republic (22219, 63.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): VI (36, 16.6%); MS (113, 25.9%); VT (162, 15.7%); MP (249, 92.2%); NC (434, 77.3%); TN (458, 34.7%); IA (802, 81.9%); MN (1055, 92.0%); DC (1431, 71.0%); ND (1576, 97.8%); GU (2283, 69.6%); MA (2791, 25.1%); AR (3450, 88.1%); AZ (7356, 85.1%); SC (8565, 97.8%); PA (9675, 80.3%); VA (13257, 99.2%); GA (15560, 99.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); SK (14, 44.9%); NB (64, 8.2%); BC (492, 64.2%)

We had our fourth fatality in three days in Toronto. 280 new cases pushes us up to 2,146 active cases.

There are declared outbreaks in three schools. The province has instructed schools to stop testing students who have mild symptoms, and just to send them home to isolate until they are asymptomatic. Given that as many as 2.5% of our tests are eventually (after ~3 days) coming back positive now, this "maybe it's just a cold" approach seems negligent. If it relieves pressure on our testing system and gets it working within desired parameters again though, that would be helpful, even if it comes at the terrible cost of significant further spread of COVID-19 throughout the 1/8 of our population that is in school, and thence to everyone else.

Today's chart shows how the disease is progressing per capita by age. People in their 20s, who took the lead in early August, have widened the gap significantly over people in their 30s

The provincial government is however warning that we might need to lock all the way back down again in the most affected areas (Toronto, York, Ottawa). It hasn't said when yet, but every day that passes makes the situation 7% worse (doubling every 10 days).

We had 515 new cases in Ontario today, and now have 4,975 active confirmed cases. The 39,646 tests processed today reversed a five-day decreasing trend, but we are up to 82,473 tests waiting to be processed. I think it's reasonable to assume that the situation is actually about three days (23%) worse than the tests processed so far indicate.

Stay safe.

2020-09-30

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (93HI→102HI), Spain (208HI→216HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (482HI→504HI), California (704HI→720HI), New York (1402HI→1402HI), France (8→8), Sweden (20→18), U.K. (24→24), Romania (30→27), Denmark (30→30), Austria (35→33), Toronto (44→35), Iran (77→77), Poland (86→79), Canada (91→85), Ontario (112→103), Italy (117→114), Germany (161→153), Norway (162→170), Turkey (194→201), Malaysia (325→354), Japan (479→446), Thailand (2715→2609)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Toronto, Poland, Canada, Ontario, Germany

Worse: Sweden, Romania, Austria, Italy

Better: Spain, Alabama, France, U.K., Denmark, Iran, Norway, Turkey, Malaysia

Much better: Israel

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (168→91, 66.0%), Singapore (new→139, 1.7%), Louisiana (new→150, 16.9%), New Zealand (216→174, 5.7%), Australia (428→281, 15.2%), South Korea (246→401, 26.3%), Brazil (2509→712, 65.6%), China (new→836, 0.6%), South Africa (572→1280, 28.5%), India (2460→3434, 92.4%), Mexico (new→6412, 70.4%), Indonesia (new→9385, 99.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (eradicated); Timor-Leste (4, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (8, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Eritrea (14, 24.6%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.5%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mongolia (19, 5.5%); Liechtenstein (21, 8.7%); Comoros (23, 7.7%); Egypt (25, 2.3%); Barbados (37, 7.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (46, 3.1%); Niger (53, 2.7%); Suriname (60, 7.7%); Ecuador (104, 42.9%); Madagascar (129, 24.2%); West Bank and Gaza (144, 66.9%); Monaco (157, 56.7%); Colombia (159, 35.5%); Zambia (164, 20.9%); Equatorial Guinea (166, 7.1%); Yemen (180, 27.8%); Uruguay (190, 68.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (192, 5.1%); Bhutan (201, 70.6%); Zimbabwe (219, 45.8%); Sri Lanka (248, 14.5%); Haiti (250, 57.9%); Philippines (258, 63.4%); Senegal (266, 50.6%); Eswatini (276, 28.6%); El Salvador (324, 44.9%); Maldives (345, 41.4%); Trinidad and Tobago (402, 89.3%); Saudi Arabia (427, 17.0%); Bahrain (443, 82.7%); Montenegro (481, 92.2%); Croatia (526, 45.3%); Azerbaijan (547, 19.5%); Mauritania (551, 8.0%); Malawi (607, 64.0%); Kuwait (620, 49.8%); Uzbekistan (626, 30.2%); Gabon (636, 27.1%); Venezuela (690, 75.8%); Lesotho (708, 88.1%); Guinea (809, 35.0%); United Arab Emirates (842, 59.6%); Dominican Republic (845, 66.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (981, 86.0%); Gambia (1281, 56.8%); Georgia (1338, 86.5%); Tajikistan (1457, 59.2%); Rwanda (1914, 64.0%); Qatar (1948, 9.2%); Peru (2238, 60.9%); Afghanistan (2248, 35.9%); Mali (2497, 78.1%); Morocco (2601, 93.6%); Bolivia (2624, 76.4%); Kazakhstan (2865, 9.6%); Bangladesh (3268, 79.8%); Nicaragua (4525, 99.3%); Somalia (5075, 47.1%); Sudan (8391, 85.1%); Central African Republic (22219, 63.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): TX (14, 44.7%); VI (41, 14.9%); HI (44, 38.6%); MS (86, 23.1%); VT (150, 15.7%); NC (295, 70.4%); MN (446, 86.7%); AR (684, 85.2%); GU (690, 67.7%); MA (1228, 23.2%); SD (1568, 95.6%); ME (1625, 80.1%); IA (1907, 82.6%); DC (4842, 71.4%); SC (4967, 99.1%); ND (5115, 96.8%); TN (5382, 35.2%); GA (9915, 99.2%); MD (122711, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (4): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (64, 8.2%); BC (683, 65.4%)

India appears to have crested its first wave: they reached their peak of over a million active cases two weeks ago, and have gradually come down to 940,000.

Two more COVID-19 patients were reported to have died today in Toronto. We managed to get through all of September without losing two people in one day, and now we've lost three in two days. Hospitalizations have more than tripled in three weeks, and are up to 65 now. We are at 60% of total ICU bed capacity, and 89% of acute bed occupancy.

Test delays are worsening, and are down to 18% turnaround within 24 hours and 37% within 48 hours. Even once test results are available, only 37% are then reached within a further 24 hours. The positivity rate has climbed to 2.5%, thanks to the large number of people who are getting infected, and increased restrictions now on who is allowed to get tested.

There are 83 cases in 69 publicly funded schools now, narrowly edging out Ottawa for the first time to be the city in the province that has put COVID-19 into the most schools.

There is an increasing amount of sarcasm in the media, belatedly asking why anyone thought that it would be a good idea to open restaurants, bars and schools during a pandemic, along with some naive opposition from restaurant owners asking why they should have to close before transmission is confirmed on their premises.

There appears to have been a fourth case in our neighbourhood this afternoon, after the weekly data dump. If so, that brings the number of active cases in the neighbourhood to two, as two cases from two weeks ago have been declared resolved. There are no longer any neighbourhoods in Toronto that have been COVID-free in the last three weeks.

Today's chart is a weekly update of how many sporadic cases there were in each neighbourhood in the past week. You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-09-29

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (94HI→93HI), Spain (208HI→208HI), Alabama (302HI→302HI), U.S. (472HI→482HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), California (692HI→704HI), New York (1571HI→1402HI), Singapore (13674HI→12845HI), France (9→8), Sweden (27→20), U.K. (27→24), Denmark (30→30), Romania (32→30), Austria (35→35), Toronto (44→44), Iran (78→77), Mexico (85→85), Poland (91→86), Canada (95→91), Ontario (114→112), Italy (120→117), Indonesia (141→143), Germany (161→161), Turkey (190→194), Malaysia (331→325), Thailand (3335→2715), China (37800→35196)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, Poland, Canada, Malaysia

Worse: U.K., Romania, Ontario, Italy

The same: Israel, France, Iran

Better: Spain, Alabama, Denmark, Austria, Toronto, Mexico, Indonesia, Germany, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (259→168, 82.3%), Norway (204→194, 58.7%), New Zealand (113→216, 5.9%), South Korea (441→246, 26.6%), Australia (382→428, 15.9%), Japan (new→552, 37.3%), South Africa (591→572, 29.2%), India (14919→2460, 93.1%), Brazil (new→2509, 67.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (2, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (6, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (10, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.5%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Luxembourg (14, 50.3%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 5.5%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); San Marino (14, 3.2%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Vietnam (14, 8.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (20, 9.6%); Egypt (32, 4.3%); Equatorial Guinea (35, 8.1%); Suriname (40, 6.6%); Mongolia (50, 7.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (51, 3.4%); Sri Lanka (94, 14.8%); Ecuador (99, 36.5%); Colombia (120, 41.4%); Eritrea (123, 24.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (152, 5.2%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); West Bank and Gaza (207, 73.4%); Uruguay (213, 68.6%); Philippines (239, 59.2%); Niger (247, 3.3%); Senegal (272, 53.8%); Maldives (285, 42.3%); Yemen (290, 30.7%); Monaco (316, 58.3%); Eswatini (335, 31.0%); Saudi Arabia (342, 17.6%); Lesotho (377, 92.7%); Bahrain (423, 86.7%); Haiti (444, 59.5%); El Salvador (454, 47.4%); Azerbaijan (575, 20.2%); Kazakhstan (598, 9.7%); Uzbekistan (644, 31.3%); Kuwait (721, 49.7%); Bahamas (755, 94.2%); Venezuela (757, 78.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (760, 95.7%); Malawi (763, 64.9%); Gambia (803, 57.7%); Rwanda (904, 64.8%); Peru (947, 64.6%); Dominican Republic (1149, 68.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1152, 88.5%); Uganda (1337, 96.3%); Gabon (1365, 28.3%); Montenegro (1452, 96.2%); Nigeria (1488, 44.9%); Tajikistan (1529, 59.5%); Zambia (1573, 22.7%); Qatar (1631, 9.4%); Croatia (1848, 42.6%); Bolivia (1903, 76.8%); Ghana (1983, 7.9%); Sudan (2071, 84.3%); Bangladesh (2098, 80.4%); Central African Republic (2303, 62.5%); Belize (3170, 81.0%); Cuba (3249, 67.6%); Albania (6981, 99.4%); Zimbabwe (7878, 51.7%); Kyrgyzstan (8378, 20.6%); South Sudan (22012, 66.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): HI (42, 37.7%); MS (80, 20.8%); VI (89, 18.6%); VT (277, 16.0%); IA (288, 81.9%); NC (297, 65.9%); MP (761, 95.1%); ME (774, 79.4%); AR (939, 84.6%); MI (1099, 96.0%); TN (2476, 34.9%); DE (4086, 99.1%); GA (6115, 99.2%); MO (9830, 98.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.2%); NB (64, 8.2%); BC (518, 64.4%)

A news story today mentioned the incongruity that local casinos were reopening, even as strip clubs stayed closed. this doesn't seem a terrible idea to me. Very few places have better surveillance than casinos, so if you have to have to have people leaving their houses, then having them do so to go play slot machines while wearing masks sounds like the safest choice.

We saw our first death in Toronto in two weeks. According to Public Health Ontario, if you contract a fatal case of COVID-19, regardless of your age, your median survival duration is two weeks, and you will almost certainly be dead within 60 days. In the past week, we've had 1,427 new cases or an average of 204 a day. The daily average going back in previous weeks was 131, 77, 48, 33, 27, 15, 15, 14, .... This tells us that even if we don't eradicate COVID-19 from the city, if we can just get it down to 15~30 new cases a day, as we were in those halcyon midsummer days, very few people will die. (Those numbers would also make it possible for our testing and tracing system to start working again.) In the meantime, we should be prepared for a new, rising wave of death that mirrors that pattern of increasing cases. Please try to avoid death - yours and your friends' and family's - by avoiding contact with people until the numbers go down again.

Today's chart shows the rapid but sub-exponential growth of cases across the province. Sub-exponential is good - it means that people are paying attention and beginning to change their behaviour.

Stay safe.

2020-09-28

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→90HI), Spain (190HI→202HI), Alabama (405HI→302HI), U.S. (472HI→470HI), California (684HI→684HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), New York (1571HI→1571HI), France (10→9), Sweden (27→27), U.K. (34→27), Denmark (37→30), Austria (43→33), Romania (41→33), Toronto (54→51), Iran (80→79), Mexico (90→88), Poland (136→94), Canada (106→100), Italy (124→122), Ontario (131→125), Indonesia (135→137), Germany (174→170), Turkey (183→184), Malaysia (413→357)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Alabama, U.K., Denmark, Austria, Romania, Poland, Canada, Ontario, Germany, Malaysia

Worse: Toronto, Mexico, Italy

The same: France, Iran

Better: Spain, Sweden, Indonesia, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (279→168, 6.7%), Singapore (198→209, 2.1%), Norway (new→225, 54.7%), Australia (186→291, 17.0%), South Korea (214→317, 28.6%), China (350→326, 0.6%), Malta (537→337, 89.1%), New Zealand (14→385, 6.4%), Japan (531→456, 37.6%), South Africa (1496→824, 29.6%), Brazil (3427→1785, 70.7%), India (9808→4650, 94.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (4, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (8, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (12, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 77.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritania (14, 8.4%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 4.0%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Taiwan (14, 8.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 9.6%); Vietnam (22, 7.1%); Equatorial Guinea (33, 8.1%); Eritrea (35, 24.6%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Egypt (45, 7.4%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (64, 5.8%); Croatia (90, 48.1%); Chad (113, 22.2%); Sri Lanka (118, 15.8%); Mongolia (126, 9.1%); Niger (136, 3.5%); Colombia (145, 47.6%); Cameroon (159, 21.0%); Peru (229, 62.3%); Yemen (239, 31.6%); Suriname (271, 10.7%); Saudi Arabia (276, 18.6%); Senegal (304, 57.4%); Kazakhstan (377, 9.7%); Cuba (417, 66.0%); Maldives (458, 45.3%); Bahrain (471, 90.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (480, 6.9%); Malawi (494, 67.5%); Gambia (529, 58.2%); Madagascar (574, 30.5%); Liberia (603, 7.6%); Gabon (632, 28.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (656, 89.4%); Eswatini (719, 31.6%); West Bank and Gaza (725, 87.5%); Uruguay (735, 77.6%); Guinea-Bissau (796, 77.5%); Uzbekistan (828, 31.9%); Namibia (838, 46.5%); Azerbaijan (930, 20.7%); Uganda (938, 95.9%); Nigeria (941, 44.4%); Dominican Republic (1263, 70.3%); Venezuela (1300, 80.3%); Panama (1313, 82.2%); Mozambique (1452, 93.7%); Bangladesh (1698, 81.0%); Rwanda (2062, 65.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (2092, 97.0%); El Salvador (2265, 50.3%); Tajikistan (2378, 60.4%); Qatar (2409, 9.4%); Bolivia (2634, 77.7%); Kuwait (3568, 53.0%); Central African Republic (6003, 63.3%); South Sudan (6212, 65.3%); Ghana (14019, 8.0%); Ethiopia (21457, 85.9%); Syria (25589, 90.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): HI (40, 35.7%); TX (188, 44.0%); IA (403, 86.2%); MI (838, 89.3%); RI (855, 94.9%); GU (1549, 70.5%); ME (3295, 81.4%); OH (3939, 70.8%); PA (5276, 80.6%); CT (9504, 95.2%); GA (17360, 99.4%); SC (57801, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); SK (261, 41.7%); BC (401, 68.4%); AB (721, 47.9%)

Malaysia is building up to a second wave; after three quiet months, the last three weeks have seen its active case count rise from 154 to 851, with this week being the first since May in which there were three triple-digit days of new cases. Malaysia is not particularly unusual in having a second wave, but is noteworthy mainly because of how few active cases they fell down to (~60) between waves.

There were 170 new cases reported in Toronto today, bringing us to 1,575 active cases. Five more cases were admitted to hospital, for a total of 49.

In Ontario, we are nearing the point where our active case count in this second wave matches the first wave, meaning that all the effort that we put into locking down earlier in the year will have been completely wasted. According to CMAJ stats, we are at 6,111/6,548; the province's official numbers (extended back by my own estimates) put us at 4,196/5,675. That includes the 491 new cases today and two needless deaths. We have now had 400+ new cases on 8 of the last 10 days, which last happened in April. The government asks us to be patient, leave bars by 11:00 P.M., and not to worry if we were in any of the growing list of restaurants and bars that have had to close due to COVID-19 outbreaks, because public health authorities will contact people individually as needed.

Today's chart is a new one. It shows how the ten countries with the most active cases of COVID-19 (plus the province of Ontario) have had their active numbers grow and shrink, scaled for comparison so that their peak to date is at the top of the graph. For example, the U.S. is still looking for its first peak, so it just has a wavily increasing line; the U.K. had a little peak in May, a little dip in July, and has soared since; Ontario never quite cleared up its first wave, and is almost back to that first peak.

Stay safe.

2020-09-27

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→90HI), Spain (190HI→202HI), Alabama (405HI→302HI), U.S. (472HI→470HI), California (684HI→684HI), Louisiana (687HI→687HI), New York (1571HI→1571HI), France (10→9), Sweden (27→27), U.K. (34→27), Denmark (37→30), Austria (43→33), Romania (41→33), Toronto (54→51), Iran (80→79), Mexico (90→88), Poland (136→94), Canada (106→100), Italy (124→122), Ontario (131→125), Indonesia (135→137), Germany (174→170), Turkey (183→184), Malaysia (413→357)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Alabama, U.K., Denmark, Austria, Romania, Poland, Canada, Ontario, Germany, Malaysia

Worse: Toronto, Mexico, Italy

The same: France, Iran

Better: Spain, Sweden, Indonesia, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (279→168, 6.7%), Singapore (198→209, 2.1%), Norway (new→225, 54.7%), Australia (186→291, 17.0%), South Korea (214→317, 28.6%), China (350→326, 0.6%), Malta (537→337, 89.1%), New Zealand (14→385, 6.4%), Japan (531→456, 37.6%), South Africa (1496→824, 29.6%), Brazil (3427→1785, 70.7%), India (9808→4650, 94.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (4, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (8, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (12, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 77.6%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritania (14, 8.4%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 4.0%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Taiwan (14, 8.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 9.6%); Vietnam (22, 7.1%); Equatorial Guinea (33, 8.1%); Eritrea (35, 24.6%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Egypt (45, 7.4%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (64, 5.8%); Croatia (90, 48.1%); Chad (113, 22.2%); Sri Lanka (118, 15.8%); Mongolia (126, 9.1%); Niger (136, 3.5%); Colombia (145, 47.6%); Cameroon (159, 21.0%); Peru (229, 62.3%); Yemen (239, 31.6%); Suriname (271, 10.7%); Saudi Arabia (276, 18.6%); Senegal (304, 57.4%); Kazakhstan (377, 9.7%); Cuba (417, 66.0%); Maldives (458, 45.3%); Bahrain (471, 90.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (480, 6.9%); Malawi (494, 67.5%); Gambia (529, 58.2%); Madagascar (574, 30.5%); Liberia (603, 7.6%); Gabon (632, 28.3%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (656, 89.4%); Eswatini (719, 31.6%); West Bank and Gaza (725, 87.5%); Uruguay (735, 77.6%); Guinea-Bissau (796, 77.5%); Uzbekistan (828, 31.9%); Namibia (838, 46.5%); Azerbaijan (930, 20.7%); Uganda (938, 95.9%); Nigeria (941, 44.4%); Dominican Republic (1263, 70.3%); Venezuela (1300, 80.3%); Panama (1313, 82.2%); Mozambique (1452, 93.7%); Bangladesh (1698, 81.0%); Rwanda (2062, 65.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (2092, 97.0%); El Salvador (2265, 50.3%); Tajikistan (2378, 60.4%); Qatar (2409, 9.4%); Bolivia (2634, 77.7%); Kuwait (3568, 53.0%); Central African Republic (6003, 63.3%); South Sudan (6212, 65.3%); Ghana (14019, 8.0%); Ethiopia (21457, 85.9%); Syria (25589, 90.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): HI (40, 35.7%); TX (188, 44.0%); IA (403, 86.2%); MI (838, 89.3%); RI (855, 94.9%); GU (1549, 70.5%); ME (3295, 81.4%); OH (3939, 70.8%); PA (5276, 80.6%); CT (9504, 95.2%); GA (17360, 99.4%); SC (57801, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); SK (261, 41.7%); BC (401, 68.4%); AB (721, 47.9%)

Malaysia is building up to a second wave; after three quiet months, the last three weeks have seen its active case count rise from 154 to 851, with this week being the first since May in which there were three triple-digit days of new cases. Malaysia is not particularly unusual in having a second wave, but is noteworthy mainly because of how few active cases they fell down to (~60) between waves.

There were 170 new cases reported in Toronto today, bringing us to 1,575 active cases. Five more cases were admitted to hospital, for a total of 49.

In Ontario, we are nearing the point where our active case count in this second wave matches the first wave, meaning that all the effort that we put into locking down earlier in the year will have been completely wasted. According to CMAJ stats, we are at 6,111/6,548; the province's official numbers (extended back by my own estimates) put us at 4,196/5,675. That includes the 491 new cases today and two needless deaths. We have now had 400+ new cases on 8 of the last 10 days, which last happened in April. The government asks us to be patient, leave bars by 11:00 P.M., and not to worry if we were in any of the growing list of restaurants and bars that have had to close due to COVID-19 outbreaks, because public health authorities will contact people individually as needed.

Today's chart is a new one. It shows how the ten countries with the most active cases of COVID-19 (plus the province of Ontario) have had their active numbers grow and shrink, scaled for comparison so that their peak to date is at the top of the graph. For example, the U.S. is still looking for its first peak, so it just has a wavily increasing line; the U.K. had a little peak in May, a little dip in July, and has soared since; Ontario never quite cleared up its first wave, and is almost back to that first peak.

Stay safe.

2020-09-26

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→108HI), Spain (190HI→190HI), Alabama (405HI→405HI), U.S. (472HI→472HI), California (759HI→684HI), New York (1571HI→1571HI), France (10→10), Sweden (37→27), U.K. (37→34), Denmark (37→37), Romania (41→41), Austria (43→43), Toronto (55→54), Iran (81→80), Mexico (92→90), Canada (111→106), Italy (127→124), Ontario (132→131), Indonesia (135→135), Poland (136→136), Norway (164→165), Germany (169→174), Turkey (183→183), Malaysia (459→413)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, Canada

Worse: U.K., Mexico, Italy

The same: Toronto, Iran, Ontario

Better: Israel, Spain, France, Denmark, Romania, Austria, Indonesia, Poland, Norway, Germany, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (584→14, 6.6%), Australia (149→186, 17.3%), Louisiana (288→198, 21.8%), Singapore (114→198, 2.1%), South Korea (227→214, 28.4%), Thailand (313→279, 7.0%), China (332→350, 0.6%), Japan (1816→531, 37.7%), Malta (new→537, 91.4%), South Africa (7579→1496, 30.6%), Brazil (798→3427, 70.3%), India (1544→9808, 95.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (5, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (9, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (13, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Somalia (14, 42.5%); Taiwan (14, 8.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Vietnam (19, 7.1%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Eritrea (42, 28.3%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Egypt (57, 9.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (60, 6.1%); Croatia (64, 44.2%); Barbados (94, 15.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (111, 7.2%); Chad (117, 22.0%); Mongolia (126, 9.1%); Cameroon (139, 20.4%); Uruguay (149, 69.3%); Yemen (233, 32.2%); Colombia (236, 50.6%); Saudi Arabia (244, 19.1%); Senegal (272, 59.4%); Mauritania (288, 8.2%); Gambia (348, 58.8%); Sri Lanka (351, 18.4%); Chile (419, 15.4%); Bhutan (424, 75.3%); Mozambique (429, 92.2%); West Bank and Gaza (457, 89.6%); Switzerland (458, 50.2%); Namibia (483, 48.8%); Malawi (491, 67.7%); Uzbekistan (552, 32.1%); Kazakhstan (597, 9.9%); Bahrain (599, 92.8%); Liberia (603, 7.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (619, 89.7%); Gabon (632, 28.3%); El Salvador (724, 50.3%); Panama (732, 82.0%); Madagascar (885, 31.0%); Nigeria (930, 44.3%); Maldives (1070, 47.1%); Azerbaijan (1077, 20.9%); Uganda (1271, 93.0%); Zimbabwe (1569, 52.6%); Peru (1752, 75.0%); Bangladesh (1816, 81.7%); Dominican Republic (1877, 71.1%); Kuwait (1970, 52.3%); Eswatini (2096, 32.5%); Venezuela (2109, 81.6%); Equatorial Guinea (2183, 16.1%); Tajikistan (2234, 60.5%); Burkina Faso (2316, 98.8%); Rwanda (2515, 65.5%); Syria (2580, 89.7%); Bolivia (2705, 78.2%); Ethiopia (3297, 85.4%); Haiti (4208, 64.6%); Guinea-Bissau (11742, 77.5%); Ghana (14019, 8.0%); Kyrgyzstan (23433, 20.9%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): TX (193, 44.7%); IA (319, 84.4%); VT (439, 18.0%); MP (503, 94.1%); PA (905, 77.1%); TN (956, 35.4%); ME (981, 81.5%); OH (996, 70.3%); RI (1591, 95.9%); MI (1673, 89.3%); MA (5653, 23.9%); GU (6152, 70.5%); GA (321177, 99.7%); VA (1193322, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); SK (261, 41.7%); BC (401, 68.4%); AB (721, 47.9%)

There were 146 new cases in Toronto today, bringing us to 1,511 active cases. We have 44 hospitalized cases, up from 27 a week ago. There were no school cases reported today because of the weekend, but the TDSB did announce that the first two classes have been asked to stay home in isolation due to a school outbreak. I can't imagine how parents with kids attending school in person must be feeling at this point.

Toronto has started temporarily closing individual clubs and restaurants whose noncompliance with COVID-19 public health requirements has resulted in identifiable outbreaks. Small steps toward a safer city.

There were 435 new cases in Ontario, the third consecutive 400+ day, something that last happened on May 23-25. Numbers have been increasing 50% weekly for the last three weeks. In the past week, Ottawa has seen the most new cases per capita, followed by Peel and Toronto, all more than 30 per 100K; Waterloo, York, Halton, Eastern Ontario, Renfrew and Durham also had more than 10 per 100K. At the beginning of the month, it was only Ottawa and Peel that were over 10 per 100K.

Today's chart shows the distribution of recent cases per capita across the province. You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-09-25

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→108HI), Spain (190HI→190HI), Alabama (405HI→405HI), U.S. (470HI→472HI), California (759HI→759HI), New York (1615HI→1571HI), France (10→10), Malta (34→34), Denmark (37→37), Sweden (37→37), U.K. (42→37), Romania (41→41), Austria (43→43), Toronto (62→55), Iran (84→81), Mexico (100→92), Canada (115→111), Italy (127→127), Ontario (132→132), Indonesia (138→135), Poland (136→136), Norway (163→164), Germany (171→169), Turkey (181→183), Malaysia (470→459)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Toronto, Mexico, Canada

Worse: Iran, Indonesia, Germany

Better: Israel, Spain, France, Malta, Denmark, Sweden, Romania, Austria, Italy, Ontario, Poland, Norway, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (135→114, 2.0%), Australia (148→149, 17.2%), South Korea (239→227, 30.3%), Louisiana (210→288, 21.8%), Thailand (751→313, 6.9%), China (2435→332, 0.6%), New Zealand (221→584, 6.5%), Brazil (484→798, 69.4%), India (1350→1544, 95.0%), Japan (1576→1816, 39.9%), South Africa (new→7579, 31.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (84): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (6, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (10, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 9.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Togo (14, 95.4%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Vietnam (24, 8.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (39, 6.2%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Eritrea (42, 28.3%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Croatia (54, 43.3%); Egypt (71, 11.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (82, 7.0%); Suriname (91, 10.7%); Barbados (94, 15.4%); Chad (114, 21.5%); Cabo Verde (154, 49.8%); Mauritania (161, 8.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (193, 4.3%); Senegal (219, 61.0%); Saudi Arabia (233, 19.8%); Yemen (242, 33.3%); Chile (274, 14.8%); Cyprus (298, 52.7%); Ghana (305, 8.0%); Liberia (306, 7.6%); Mozambique (322, 89.1%); Bhutan (326, 76.5%); West Bank and Gaza (327, 88.6%); Uruguay (349, 76.9%); Maldives (353, 47.2%); Malawi (433, 67.6%); Haiti (446, 64.0%); Gambia (453, 60.0%); Sri Lanka (535, 18.8%); Panama (562, 81.9%); Gabon (582, 28.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (599, 91.4%); Peru (630, 68.0%); Morocco (636, 93.6%); Monaco (667, 61.5%); Madagascar (675, 31.1%); Cameroon (702, 20.4%); Kazakhstan (781, 10.2%); Namibia (786, 48.6%); Belize (846, 81.7%); Kuwait (859, 52.4%); Zimbabwe (927, 51.9%); Kyrgyzstan (950, 20.7%); Uzbekistan (962, 33.1%); Bahrain (1020, 94.8%); Colombia (1338, 61.3%); El Salvador (1463, 51.3%); Bangladesh (1896, 82.2%); Dominican Republic (1919, 71.5%); Argentina (2018, 94.9%); Bolivia (2128, 78.6%); Equatorial Guinea (2183, 16.1%); Tajikistan (2389, 60.7%); Syria (2528, 90.4%); Moldova (4490, 95.0%); Azerbaijan (7616, 21.4%); United Arab Emirates (7948, 60.4%); Guinea-Bissau (11742, 77.5%); Guinea (15998, 33.7%); Ethiopia (17147, 85.8%); North Macedonia (24325, 52.9%); Rwanda (60701, 67.1%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): VT (302, 17.3%); AR (303, 88.1%); OH (513, 70.4%); MP (523, 97.1%); GU (556, 63.3%); TN (605, 35.5%); TX (716, 43.9%); IA (756, 94.6%); MA (763, 22.5%); NH (1029, 15.2%); IN (2328, 87.9%); CT (4184, 95.2%); GA (82704, 99.9%); RI (356560, 96.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (84, 68.4%); SK (134, 38.3%)

The second wave got real in Ontario, as Premier Ford announced the closure of strip clubs (presumably because they weren't compatible with social distancing or contact tracing), and an earlier closing time for bars and restaurants (last call at 23:00, closing at midnight). We had one more death and 409 new cases, leaving us with 2,837 cumulative deaths, and 3,899 currently active cases including 236 cases in 198 schools.

In Quebec, the government called for people to stop socializing at home for the next 28 days, but confirmed that restaurants and bars would remain open during that time.

In Toronto, we saw 236 new cases (the 11th worst day in our history), bringing us to 1,460 active cases. 25 of our 140 neighbourhoods now have a recent sporadic case rate greater than 1 per 1,000 population (including York University Heights with 2.3/K), one week ago it was 8 neighbourhoods. No new cases in our neighbourhood since Saturday.

Today's chart is the original confirmed case ratio vs. rate of change phase diagram, with the latest data.

Stay safe.

2020-09-24

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→108HI), Spain (189HI→190HI), Alabama (405HI→405HI), U.S. (466HI→470HI), California (670HI→759HI), South Africa (1398HI→1403HI), New York (1615HI→1615HI), France (13→10), Denmark (41→37), Sweden (37→37), Romania (42→41), U.K. (42→42), Austria (43→43), Toronto (67→62), Iran (87→84), Canada (119→115), Italy (130→127), Ontario (138→132), Poland (142→136), Indonesia (142→138), Norway (177→163), Germany (170→171), Turkey (182→181), Malaysia (518→470)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Denmark, Toronto, Canada, Ontario, Poland, Indonesia, Norway

Worse: Iran, Italy

The same: Romania, Turkey

Better: Israel, Spain, Sweden, U.K., Austria, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (95→135, 2.2%), Australia (162→148, 17.8%), Louisiana (236→210, 20.3%), New Zealand (249→221, 7.0%), South Korea (215→239, 30.8%), Brazil (966→484, 67.9%), Thailand (2384→751, 7.2%), Mexico (702→1242, 62.8%), India (1513→1350, 95.1%), Japan (5095→1576, 40.2%), China (new→2435, 0.6%), Malta (new→3795, 94.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (7, 0.0%); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (11, 0.0%); Burundi (14, 10.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 4.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Vietnam (24, 8.8%); Suriname (33, 11.6%); Comoros (46, 9.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (49, 7.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (49, 4.0%); Croatia (61, 45.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (64, 6.8%); Egypt (79, 13.9%); Djibouti (94, 0.3%); Monaco (100, 53.4%); Chad (113, 21.2%); Mauritania (154, 8.6%); Cuba (196, 67.1%); Senegal (225, 62.8%); Yemen (227, 34.1%); Saudi Arabia (242, 20.6%); Sri Lanka (250, 19.2%); Peru (265, 64.5%); Eritrea (268, 39.9%); Chile (280, 14.9%); Philippines (281, 69.9%); Cyprus (299, 50.9%); Bhutan (326, 76.5%); Botswana (332, 76.3%); Maldives (405, 47.6%); Ecuador (431, 50.9%); Haiti (438, 63.4%); Belize (439, 81.7%); Cabo Verde (440, 51.1%); Gambia (490, 61.0%); Panama (498, 83.2%); Colombia (526, 57.4%); Morocco (535, 91.7%); El Salvador (546, 51.0%); Eswatini (555, 33.6%); West Bank and Gaza (556, 89.8%); Kuwait (560, 52.9%); Malawi (570, 68.7%); Gabon (582, 28.9%); Kazakhstan (618, 10.2%); Liberia (624, 7.8%); Namibia (745, 48.0%); Uruguay (746, 78.5%); Kyrgyzstan (748, 20.5%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (827, 95.5%); Bahrain (828, 95.5%); Argentina (897, 93.4%); Uzbekistan (1013, 33.3%); Zimbabwe (1152, 52.2%); Bolivia (1284, 78.5%); Azerbaijan (1345, 21.1%); Syria (1724, 90.8%); Dominican Republic (1744, 72.1%); Bangladesh (1883, 82.8%); Madagascar (1999, 31.8%); United Arab Emirates (2059, 60.1%); Mali (2087, 76.3%); Venezuela (2709, 82.7%); Papua New Guinea (3407, 63.7%); Ethiopia (4822, 85.9%); Tajikistan (5137, 61.1%); Mozambique (7640, 91.5%); Somalia (13513, 42.5%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): MS (78, 29.9%); NC (186, 57.1%); VT (246, 17.8%); AR (269, 85.8%); NH (276, 15.2%); TN (441, 34.5%); MA (484, 21.3%); OH (551, 70.4%); IN (716, 86.7%); VI (1228, 21.4%); IA (1239, 95.5%); PA (4324, 75.9%); AK (4705, 96.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (120, 69.6%)

Malta has doubled its total death toll in two weeks, now 28, due to a spread of the disease throughout nursing homes similar to what we saw in Toronto in April.

Ontario has started publishing its school COVID-19 data in CSV format, with one record per affected school per day; it means that if you don't check their website daily, you can find older results. The database data appears to be missing two cases that appear in counts in the summary page.

With the new numbers, we are now at 208 cases in 178 schools in Ontario doubling every 2.8 school days, and 31 cases in 28 Toronto schools doubling every 2.3 days. Toronto had been in third place behind Brampton until yesterday, but now is solidly in second place.

Ontario reported 409 new confirmed cases today, bringing our active case count to 3,774. For the first time in four days, only one person died needlessly, rather than three. Our recent case fatality rate hovers around 1%, suggesting at least that we are detecting most contagious cases, even if we aren't doing much to stop them.

Toronto saw another 151 new cases today, extending our triple digit run to a full week for the first time since early June.

Normally on a Thursday I would run a map showing how long it had been since the last case in each Toronto neighbourhood. I won't this week, because it would be almost monochromatic. If you live in Thorncliffe Park (August 23) or Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills (July 23), give yourself a pat on the back, and breathe freely when outdoors in your neighbourhood.

Instead, I'll run the one that shows active cases in each Canadian province and territory, as reported by CMAJ.

Government officials at all levels are asking Canadians to cut back on seeing each other privately, while encouraging them to socialize in restaurants and bars. Canadians, while generally good at obeying the law, seem less respectful than most of nonsensical official advice.

Stay safe.

2020-09-23

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (137HI→108HI), Spain (189HI→189HI), Alabama (395HI→405HI), U.S. (487HI→466HI), California (680HI→670HI), New York (1615HI→1615HI), France (13→13), Malta (29→35), Sweden (38→37), Denmark (41→41), Romania (42→42), U.K. (46→42), Austria (43→43), Toronto (69→67), Iran (90→87), Canada (121→119), Italy (132→130), Ontario (139→138), Indonesia (143→142), Poland (151→142), Germany (169→170), Norway (185→177), Turkey (182→182), China (32204→32900)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, U.K., Poland, Norway

Worse: Toronto, Iran, Canada, Italy

The same: Sweden, Ontario, Indonesia

Better: Spain, France, Denmark, Romania, Austria, Germany, Turkey

Much better: Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (81→95, 2.3%), Australia (283→162, 19.0%), South Korea (231→215, 31.7%), Malaysia (new→229, 25.6%), Louisiana (new→236, 19.1%), New Zealand (140→249, 6.7%), Mexico (628→702, 59.9%), Brazil (1244→966, 72.9%), India (1378→1513, 95.9%), Thailand (1185→2384, 7.6%), South Africa (new→3802, 31.3%), Japan (1370→5095, 40.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (8, 0.0%); Brunei (10, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burundi (14, 9.2%); Cabo Verde (14, 53.3%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam, Madagascar (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 4.2%); Tajikistan (14, 61.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (22, 11.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (30, 4.0%); Comoros (36, 9.6%); Mauritania (77, 8.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (83, 7.3%); Egypt (88, 15.7%); Djibouti (94, 0.3%); Vietnam (105, 15.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (116, 8.8%); Monaco (119, 53.4%); Eswatini (154, 32.8%); Belize (170, 75.5%); Cyprus (175, 44.0%); Sri Lanka (177, 19.2%); Zambia (217, 19.2%); Senegal (231, 64.2%); Saudi Arabia (254, 21.5%); Ecuador (257, 43.8%); Eritrea (268, 39.9%); El Salvador (287, 51.1%); Philippines (289, 67.5%); Yemen (315, 34.8%); Liberia (316, 7.8%); Croatia (319, 68.4%); Bhutan (332, 77.6%); Botswana (332, 76.3%); Chile (347, 15.7%); Cuba (391, 70.6%); Maldives (395, 48.5%); Argentina (496, 90.5%); Kuwait (499, 53.6%); Papua New Guinea (499, 64.0%); Panama (515, 84.9%); Gambia (559, 61.6%); Morocco (612, 91.6%); Haiti (740, 65.3%); Uzbekistan (867, 33.3%); Sudan (884, 85.4%); Switzerland (1101, 45.4%); Kyrgyzstan (1128, 20.6%); Syria (1136, 90.8%); Gabon (1153, 29.7%); Bolivia (1306, 79.0%); Venezuela (1310, 82.7%); Azerbaijan (1311, 21.4%); Rwanda (1323, 66.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1410, 94.7%); Zimbabwe (1435, 52.7%); Mali (1462, 76.2%); Bahrain (1736, 97.5%); United Arab Emirates (1799, 59.4%); Bangladesh (1911, 83.3%); Iraq (3207, 98.6%); Malawi (3207, 71.9%); Namibia (3581, 48.4%); Ethiopia (3675, 86.0%); Kazakhstan (6931, 10.7%); Moldova (7902, 91.7%); Dominican Republic (19234, 72.7%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): MS (66, 26.8%); NH (141, 14.3%); NC (160, 52.0%); VT (185, 17.6%); AR (233, 82.4%); MT (363, 86.0%); IN (685, 86.9%); OH (699, 71.6%); HI (1338, 81.3%); IA (3144, 95.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (120, 69.6%)

The City of Toronto has redone their COVID-19 page, and it's worth a look if you like pandemic data (and who doesn't?).

https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/covid-19-latest-city-of-toronto-news/covid-19-status-of-cases-in-toronto/

They've kept most of the old data (although I currently don't see where they've moved the current hospital occupancy counts, not %, to), and added some interesting new figures. We are for instance at 89% occupancy in acute care hospital beds, which is probably a good thing - every time I've been with someone who needed hospital care, beds were always far over capacity. We are dropping day by day on our ability to process tests in a timely manner, and are down to 22% within 24 hours with a target of 60%. It's not just the nervous uninfected who are using up all those tests either - our positive rate is up to 1.9%, which as with most statistics is a figure we last saw back at the beginning of June.

Today being Wednesday, Toronto has also updated its extract of iPHIS case information. It describes the third case recently reported in our neighbourhood as a man in his 30s who was exposed to COVID-19 on Tuesday of last week in a healthcare setting (such as a medical or dental office, but not a hospital), and tested positive on Saturday.

Today's chart is a weekly one that shows how many new sporadic cases there were in each Toronto neighbourhood. The northwestern neighbourhoods have caught up with the waterfront, and neighbourhoods adjacent to the waterfront are starting to see high numbers of cases. You can interact with it here:

Nine more cases were reported in seven Toronto schools, bringing us up to 25 cases in 23 schools. Across the province, it's 180 and 153. Those numbers are doubling every two school days, which if sustained would see every school infected two weeks from now. I'm trying to remember whether we're trying to make the students sick, or the staff, or was it their extended families?

Stay safe.

2020-09-22

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (116HI→137HI), Spain (189HI→189HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), U.S. (496HI→487HI), California (691HI→680HI), Louisiana (485HI→758HI), South Africa (1468HI→1468HI), New York (1610HI→1615HI), France (14→13), Malta (28→29), Denmark (41→41), Austria (42→43), U.K. (49→46), Toronto (76→69), Iran (94→90), Canada (123→121), Italy (135→132), Ontario (151→139), Indonesia (144→143), Poland (154→151), Germany (170→169), Turkey (181→182), Norway (170→185), Malaysia (737→627), China (32204→32204)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Toronto, Iran, Ontario

Worse: U.K., Canada, Italy, Poland

The same: France, Indonesia, Germany

Better: Spain, Malta, Denmark, Austria, Turkey, Norway

Much better: Israel

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (54, no new data, 45.9%), Singapore (81, no new data, 2.3%), New Zealand (140, no new data, 6.6%), South Korea (231, no new data, 33.2%), Australia (283, no new data, 20.6%), Mexico (628, no new data, 57.3%), Thailand (1185, no new data, 7.5%), Brazil (1244, no new data, 71.4%), Japan (1370, no new data, 40.5%), India (4058→1378, 95.9%), Sweden (3870, no new data, 86.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (9, 0.0%); Brunei (11, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burundi (14, 9.2%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 16.3%); Eritrea (14, 42.8%); Fiji (14, 32.7%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (17, 11.6%); Zambia (25, 9.6%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (34, 4.0%); Mauritania (94, 8.9%); Egypt (100, 17.8%); Botswana (112, 76.3%); Cyprus (134, 41.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (138, 9.4%); Eswatini (139, 33.0%); Sri Lanka (141, 19.6%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); Papua New Guinea (188, 61.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (206, 8.9%); Monaco (207, 56.7%); Belize (211, 79.5%); El Salvador (244, 52.9%); Jordan (249, 78.0%); Senegal (265, 67.4%); Saudi Arabia (274, 22.6%); Philippines (325, 66.1%); Bhutan (338, 78.8%); Vietnam (364, 17.5%); Kuwait (389, 53.4%); Ecuador (390, 40.9%); Venezuela (408, 83.1%); Argentina (419, 88.3%); Cuba (524, 66.3%); Maldives (534, 48.5%); Panama (542, 87.0%); Yemen (566, 35.7%); Chile (584, 16.9%); Kazakhstan (622, 10.5%); Liberia (624, 7.8%); Croatia (643, 72.2%); Haiti (651, 65.1%); Sudan (759, 84.9%); Ghana (839, 8.0%); Syria (913, 90.8%); Morocco (968, 89.2%); Rwanda (983, 66.4%); Gabon (1005, 29.7%); Azerbaijan (1271, 21.6%); Bolivia (1358, 79.5%); Zimbabwe (1465, 53.7%); Iraq (1477, 96.9%); Mali (1816, 75.9%); Gambia (1849, 64.2%); Kyrgyzstan (2013, 21.0%); Bangladesh (2053, 83.9%); Ethiopia (2060, 86.5%); Malawi (3168, 72.2%); Dominican Republic (3590, 72.7%); Qatar (5212, 9.3%); Uruguay (6141, 81.5%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Moldova (60153, 90.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): MS (68, 24.6%); NC (159, 49.2%); AR (340, 80.0%); VT (389, 18.9%); NH (587, 15.8%); HI (689, 81.0%); MI (801, 94.6%); OH (1013, 73.3%); DE (10322, 99.2%); WA (12079, 99.6%); IA (38675, 96.1%); TN (56700, 37.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (158, 74.1%)

Active cases in British Columbia took a steep drop today from 2,009 to 1,488, as the government declared a record 617 cases recovered in one day. The other three western provinces continued to see steady increases in active cases, and Atlantic and Northern cases remained in single digits per province and territory. Quebec now has 3,362 active cases, currently doubling every 16 days.

In Ontario, we now have 3,578 active cases. As our second wave picks up speed, we passed a landmark on September 18th, when the number of active cases (2,881) exceeded the number of fatalities (then 2,826, now 2,832). Today, we saw 51 new cases in schools, bringing the school case count up to 141. So far, only two of the 116 schools reporting cases have closed. We saw 478 new cases altogether province-wide, making today the 16th worst day this year, and the worst day in 96 days.

Today's chart shows the start of our school COVID-19 statistics. The most recent jump in Ontario is alarming, but could just be a random blip - it feels a little early for these curves to be shifting from linear to more clearly exponential growth. You can interact with the chart here.

Media and government officials are gradually sounding more concerned. Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, was widely quoted today saying "Canada is at a crossroads", and "We don't want it to go up a giant ski hill", while still calling for more individual action that is clearly not coming, rather than the government controls that worked the first time. I have trouble visualising the crossroads at the foot of a ski hill; the analogy that comes to my mind is that we've skidded our nation off an icy road and into a frozen lake, had a lockdown winch us barely back above the surface, and then had the tow truck driver fall asleep at the wheel, leaving us sinking back into the water while being told that we should take individual action to save the car.

In Toronto, we had 153 new cases today, a fifth straight 100+ day, which last happened in early June. On the bright side, both our sons are more or less safely enrolled in the TDSB's online virtual school programme that started only two weeks late today, and their first day of classes went smoothly. One teacher, who to be fair was not assigned his class until last night, took until 45 minutes before the afternoon session to launch his virtual classroom, but when he did, it was fine. News reports said that opening virtual classrooms continues to be limited by the school board's ability to recruit the right teachers, but that they are nearing the end of the process.

Stay safe.

2020-09-21

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→116HI), Spain (193HI→189HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (496HI→496HI), California (678HI→691HI), South Africa (1436HI→1468HI), New York (1610HI→1610HI), France (15→14), Malta (28→28), Denmark (41→41), Austria (43→42), U.K. (53→49), Toronto (86→76), Iran (98→94), Canada (137→123), Italy (139→135), Indonesia (149→144), Ontario (159→151), Poland (165→154), Germany (171→170), Norway (164→170), Turkey (182→181), Malaysia (798→737), China (32198→32204)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, U.K., Toronto, Iran, Canada, Italy, Indonesia, Ontario, Poland

The same: France, Austria, Germany, Turkey

Better: Israel, Malta, Denmark, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (55→54, 45.9%), Singapore (68→81, 2.3%), New Zealand (186→140, 6.6%), South Korea (227→231, 33.2%), Australia (331→283, 20.6%), Mexico (2816→628, 57.3%), Thailand (266→1185, 7.5%), Brazil (new→1244, 71.4%), Japan (298→1370, 40.5%), Sweden (new→3870, 86.8%), India (new→4058, 98.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (9, 0.0%); Brunei (11, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burundi (14, 9.2%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 16.3%); Eritrea (14, 42.8%); Fiji (14, 32.7%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (17, 11.6%); Zambia (25, 9.6%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (34, 4.0%); Mauritania (94, 8.9%); Egypt (100, 17.8%); Botswana (112, 76.3%); Cyprus (134, 41.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (138, 9.4%); Eswatini (139, 33.0%); Sri Lanka (141, 19.6%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); Papua New Guinea (188, 61.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (206, 8.9%); Monaco (207, 56.7%); Belize (211, 79.5%); El Salvador (244, 52.9%); Jordan (249, 78.0%); Senegal (265, 67.4%); Saudi Arabia (274, 22.6%); Philippines (325, 66.1%); Bhutan (338, 78.8%); Vietnam (364, 17.5%); Kuwait (389, 53.4%); Ecuador (390, 40.9%); Venezuela (408, 83.1%); Argentina (419, 88.3%); Cuba (524, 66.3%); Maldives (534, 48.5%); Panama (542, 87.0%); Yemen (566, 35.7%); Chile (584, 16.9%); Kazakhstan (622, 10.5%); Liberia (624, 7.8%); Croatia (643, 72.2%); Haiti (651, 65.1%); Sudan (759, 84.9%); Ghana (839, 8.0%); Syria (913, 90.8%); Morocco (968, 89.2%); Rwanda (983, 66.4%); Gabon (1005, 29.7%); Azerbaijan (1271, 21.6%); Bolivia (1358, 79.5%); Zimbabwe (1465, 53.7%); Iraq (1477, 96.9%); Mali (1816, 75.9%); Gambia (1849, 64.2%); Kyrgyzstan (2013, 21.0%); Bangladesh (2053, 83.9%); Ethiopia (2060, 86.5%); Malawi (3168, 72.2%); Dominican Republic (3590, 72.7%); Qatar (5212, 9.3%); Uruguay (6141, 81.5%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Moldova (60153, 90.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): MS (59, 22.8%); NC (156, 45.7%); VT (233, 18.5%); HI (773, 81.4%); MI (826, 92.7%); DE (2311, 98.4%); OH (3669, 76.4%); IL (5659, 99.1%); SC (7857, 99.4%); MD (15427, 99.6%); WA (24484, 99.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (10, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 5.0%); AB (1956, 46.7%)

In Toronto, hospitalizations are up dramatically, from 24 to 33 over the weekend, back to last month's level. Two more schools have COVID-19 cases, now ten. Active cases are up 151 to 1,152 and confirmed cumulative cases 175 to 17,712, the worse single-day increases since early June. In our own neighbourhood, there was a third case over the weekend.

There are no plans to take any further measures to reduce transmission. Bars, restaurants, strip clubs, and sports venues all remain open; unenforced, ineffective restrictions on private gatherings continue to be flouted as the numbers indicate.

Ontario's fourth day above 350 new cases reaches a mark we last set in May, and brings us up to 3,299 active cases.

Today's chart updates one from two weeks ago, showing how active cases in each continent continue on their recent trends: North America starting its third wave, Europe searching for the crest of its second, Asia and South America wondering if they've finally reached the top of their first wave, and Africa mired in a plateau not that much lower than its peak.

Stay safe.

2020-09-20

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (112HI→108HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Brazil (425HI→422HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (498HI→496HI), California (681HI→678HI), South Africa (1456HI→1436HI), New York (1649HI→1610HI), France (16→15), Malta (25→28), Denmark (48→41), Austria (45→43), Sweden (51→51), India (51→52), U.K. (55→53), Toronto (93→86), Iran (104→98), Canada (144→137), Italy (142→139), Indonesia (149→149), Ontario (170→159), Norway (162→164), Poland (179→165), Germany (173→171), Turkey (182→182), Malaysia (809→798), China (32195→32198)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Denmark, Toronto, Iran, Canada, Ontario, Poland

Worse: Austria, U.K., Italy, Germany

The same: France

Better: Spain, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey

Much better: Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (54→55, 44.8%), Singapore (80→68, 2.7%), New Zealand (91→186, 7.6%), South Korea (161→227, 35.5%), Thailand (new→266, 7.4%), Japan (602→298, 41.2%), Australia (463→331, 22.2%), Mexico (611→2816, 65.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (11, 0.0%); Brunei (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 9.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (21, 32.7%); Suriname (29, 22.6%); Zambia (30, 16.8%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Barbados (35, 11.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (67, 5.2%); Nigeria (106, 45.9%); Andorra (110, 78.9%); Sri Lanka (126, 21.1%); Egypt (137, 22.1%); Monaco (144, 63.2%); El Salvador (153, 54.6%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); Mauritania (179, 10.1%); Cameroon (223, 21.3%); Papua New Guinea (225, 64.1%); Ghana (226, 7.9%); Guinea (258, 32.1%); Venezuela (284, 83.9%); Eswatini (300, 35.4%); Saudi Arabia (311, 24.4%); Vietnam (326, 18.5%); Botswana (328, 83.6%); Maldives (345, 51.5%); Namibia (347, 50.2%); Chile (370, 17.3%); Senegal (388, 73.2%); Kazakhstan (416, 10.8%); Afghanistan (487, 35.1%); Rwanda (519, 66.9%); Panama (548, 90.7%); Haiti (609, 68.3%); Kuwait (665, 56.7%); Belize (690, 87.3%); Bhutan (690, 81.2%); Azerbaijan (731, 21.6%); Sudan (771, 84.9%); Syria (856, 92.5%); Equatorial Guinea (1014, 16.3%); Gabon (1131, 30.4%); Eritrea (1135, 42.8%); Zimbabwe (1383, 53.7%); Bangladesh (1669, 85.0%); Cabo Verde (1744, 54.5%); Guatemala (1759, 42.2%); Bolivia (1976, 81.3%); Kyrgyzstan (2155, 21.4%); Ethiopia (2295, 86.7%); Gambia (2409, 64.9%); Malawi (4852, 72.6%); Qatar (7054, 9.2%); Finland (8817, 41.0%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Kenya (561087, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): VT (480, 19.4%); HI (508, 82.3%); MI (594, 88.2%); TX (627, 42.1%); AR (1134, 76.3%); OH (1450, 75.9%); RI (3742, 97.0%); DE (5910, 99.3%); IL (26171, 98.7%); WA (29721, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (11, 0.0%); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 5.0%); AB (654, 45.6%)

Toronto had 113 new cases, the third consecutive day of 100+, which last happened on June 11th.

Ontario had 365 new cases, the third consecutive day of 350+, which last happened on May 25th. That pushes us up to 3,055 active cases. The Northwestern health unit saw its first new case since August 26th yesterday, and has seen another one today. Ottawa had its lowest count (14) in 10 days, possibly because more people are getting tested on weekdays for work and school. An Ottawa elementary school however yesterday became the second publicly funded school in the province to have to close due to COVID-19. Peel had 108 cases, its first 100+ day since the spring.

Quebec is following Ontario in bringing back some restrictions on social gatherings, and asking people to refrain from getting tested unless they have sound reasons for believing that they may be infected. Ontario is also seeing increasing delays in test processing, with Toronto's 24-hour percentage down to 25%.

Two cases were reported in Nunavut last week, at Hope Bay Mine. The territory is not counting the cases as local, because the mine is isolated, and no Nunavut residents work or live there.

Today's chart shows U.S. active cases by state and territory, updating a chart from two weeks ago. Starting at the bottom are the states which have worsened in the past week, beginning with the currently worst (Florida) and continuing with New York, Georgia, Illinois, Arizona. Above them all are the dozen that have improved: California, Texas, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, etc.

Stay safe.

2020-09-19

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (111HI→112HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Brazil (421HI→425HI), U.S. (502HI→498HI), New York (1702HI→1649HI), France (16→16), Malta (28→25), Austria (45→45), Denmark (48→48), India (51→51), Sweden (57→51), U.K. (60→55), Toronto (101→93), Iran (108→104), Italy (144→142), Canada (152→144), Indonesia (150→149), Norway (161→162), Ontario (185→170), Germany (182→173), Poland (195→179), Turkey (182→182), Malaysia (715→809), Thailand (3575→3789)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, U.K., Toronto, Iran, Canada, Ontario, Germany, Poland

Worse: Malta, Italy

The same: Indonesia

Better: Israel, Spain, France, Austria, Denmark, India, Norway, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (54, no new data, 43.8%), Singapore (80, no new data, 3.1%), New Zealand (91, no new data, 7.2%), Louisiana (168→152, 22.6%), South Korea (161, no new data, 37.1%), Australia (463, no new data, 23.3%), Japan (602, no new data, 41.1%), Mexico (611, no new data, 63.8%), China (765, no new data, 0.6%), South Africa (2487, no new data, 31.6%), California (7478→25974, 92.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (13, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Sudan (14, 88.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 11.5%); Fiji (21, 32.7%); Comoros (27, 13.5%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Zambia (37, 21.7%); Suriname (42, 31.1%); Namibia (99, 48.9%); Nigeria (103, 45.5%); Andorra (110, 78.9%); Mongolia (110, 8.2%); Ghana (113, 7.8%); Guinea (115, 30.1%); Monaco (118, 61.5%); Egypt (146, 23.9%); Sri Lanka (151, 22.0%); El Salvador (153, 58.1%); Kazakhstan (156, 10.7%); Cameroon (184, 19.9%); Vietnam (202, 18.7%); Botswana (204, 83.6%); Bhutan (231, 82.4%); Maldives (231, 52.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (251, 11.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (302, 6.2%); Chile (314, 17.7%); Saudi Arabia (337, 25.3%); Venezuela (344, 85.3%); Papua New Guinea (372, 67.0%); Rwanda (427, 67.7%); Afghanistan (461, 34.8%); Haiti (481, 68.3%); Moldova (488, 92.2%); Croatia (601, 75.8%); Panama (621, 92.2%); Zimbabwe (659, 53.9%); Senegal (774, 74.5%); Azerbaijan (789, 21.9%); Peru (831, 74.0%); Guatemala (901, 42.0%); Syria (905, 93.3%); Gambia (954, 65.1%); Equatorial Guinea (1014, 16.3%); Belize (1085, 89.2%); Gabon (1131, 30.4%); Kyrgyzstan (1272, 21.3%); Cabo Verde (1394, 53.3%); Bangladesh (1538, 85.5%); Kuwait (1546, 57.9%); Bolivia (1564, 81.7%); Somalia (1662, 41.6%); Ethiopia (1965, 87.1%); Malawi (3888, 72.6%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Honduras (10090, 95.3%); Tajikistan (12001, 61.2%); Russia (28223, 72.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): VT (277, 19.8%); HI (492, 83.5%); MI (863, 88.2%); OH (882, 75.9%); TX (1132, 43.0%); MA (1877, 22.1%); TN (2899, 35.2%); WA (7640, 98.5%); AR (10148, 78.8%); IL (25318, 98.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (12, 0.0%); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 1.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); AB (692, 45.6%)

All the European countries I am following are well into their second waves, with no sign of abating. The only anomaly is Romania, which reported that the number of their recovered cases increased from 43,244 to 88,235 yesterday. It's hard to imagine that it's a typo, so it likely represents a methodological change.

There were 407 new cases in Ontario again today, pushing our active case count up to 2,881. One more person died in a nursing home; no new school numbers, because it's the weekend. The last time we had consecutive 400+ days was June 6-7; the last time we had as many active cases at once was June 12th. This means that all the effort that we put into carefully isolating and distancing ourselves over the summer, and all of the economic burden of locking down the province since then has been wasted, all because we came out of lockdown while there were still far too many cases. The sooner we lock back down again, the sooner we can eliminate COVID-19 from Ontario, and have Canada join the 90+ countries in the world that are winning against the virus.

The Ontario government announced today that in light of the seriousness of the second wave, yesterday's announced ban on indoor residential gatherings of more than 10 people in major cities would be extended province-wide. If you want to get together with ten of your un-bubbled friends, you must do so at a restaurant, bar, strip club, or sports venue and not in your own home.

Today's chart updates one from September 12th, and plots active cases vs. rate of change for my regular countries of interest, plus a few additional ones.

Stay safe.

2020-09-18

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (112HI→111HI), Spain (196HI→193HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), Brazil (411HI→421HI), U.S. (512HI→502HI), New York (1702HI→1702HI), France (22→16), Malta (28→28), Austria (47→45), Denmark (48→48), India (51→51), Sweden (58→57), U.K. (60→60), Toronto (121→101), Iran (113→108), Italy (148→144), Indonesia (149→150), Canada (161→152), Norway (161→161), Germany (192→182), Turkey (184→182), Ontario (205→185), Poland (202→195), Malaysia (562→715), Thailand (3569→3575)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Toronto, Iran, Italy, Canada, Germany, Ontario, Poland

Worse: Spain, Austria, Turkey

The same: Israel, Sweden

Better: Malta, Denmark, India, U.K., Indonesia, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (new→54, 43.8%), Singapore (163→80, 3.1%), New Zealand (87→91, 7.2%), South Korea (128→161, 37.1%), Louisiana (133→168, 22.6%), Australia (252→463, 23.3%), Japan (688→602, 41.1%), Mexico (228→611, 63.8%), China (543→765, 0.6%), South Africa (903→2487, 31.6%), California (7140→7478, 92.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (13, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Sudan (14, 88.9%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (16, 11.5%); Fiji (21, 32.7%); Comoros (27, 13.5%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Zambia (37, 21.7%); Suriname (42, 31.1%); Namibia (99, 48.9%); Nigeria (103, 45.5%); Andorra (110, 78.9%); Mongolia (110, 8.2%); Ghana (113, 7.8%); Guinea (115, 30.1%); Monaco (118, 61.5%); Egypt (146, 23.9%); Sri Lanka (151, 22.0%); El Salvador (153, 58.1%); Kazakhstan (156, 10.7%); Cameroon (184, 19.9%); Vietnam (202, 18.7%); Botswana (204, 83.6%); Bhutan (231, 82.4%); Maldives (231, 52.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (251, 11.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (302, 6.2%); Chile (314, 17.7%); Saudi Arabia (337, 25.3%); Venezuela (344, 85.3%); Papua New Guinea (372, 67.0%); Rwanda (427, 67.7%); Afghanistan (461, 34.8%); Haiti (481, 68.3%); Moldova (488, 92.2%); Croatia (601, 75.8%); Panama (621, 92.2%); Zimbabwe (659, 53.9%); Senegal (774, 74.5%); Azerbaijan (789, 21.9%); Peru (831, 74.0%); Guatemala (901, 42.0%); Syria (905, 93.3%); Gambia (954, 65.1%); Equatorial Guinea (1014, 16.3%); Belize (1085, 89.2%); Gabon (1131, 30.4%); Kyrgyzstan (1272, 21.3%); Cabo Verde (1394, 53.3%); Bangladesh (1538, 85.5%); Kuwait (1546, 57.9%); Bolivia (1564, 81.7%); Somalia (1662, 41.6%); Ethiopia (1965, 87.1%); Malawi (3888, 72.6%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Honduras (10090, 95.3%); Tajikistan (12001, 61.2%); Russia (28223, 72.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): VI (109, 16.6%); VT (153, 19.9%); GU (479, 64.8%); OH (604, 76.4%); HI (645, 85.3%); MA (709, 20.6%); IN (1001, 87.7%); TN (2526, 37.3%); TX (2736, 43.7%); FL (16315, 87.1%); IL (17210, 97.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (13, 0.0%); NB (14, 1.4%); NL (14, 1.0%); PE (14, 5.0%); AB (413, 45.6%)

We had 146 new cases in Toronto today. We hadn't had more than 100 since June 15th, and our 879 new cases are at the level we only previously exceeded from April 6 to June 24.

Today's chart shows the median age of Toronto cases by neighbourhood this month, which has definitely skewed younger. You can interact with it here:

I published a similar chart last month at https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Adah0/1/

After 18 days without losing a patient in long-term care to COVID-19, there have been eight fatalities in Ontario in the last four days.

After 21 days without a single case, northwestern Ontario had two new cases in Thunder Bay.

There were 401 new cases in the province. There hadn't been more than 400 cases in a day since June 7th. We now have 2,652 known active cases, a level not seen since June 13th.

COVID-19 is now in 60 publicly funded schools in the province, 18 in Ottawa and 8 in Toronto.

The province of Ontario responded yesterday to the dramatic upsurge in new cases by banning private indoor gatherings of more than 10 people, while permitting the continued operation (with distancing and capacity restrictions) of restaurants, bars, strip clubs, and sporting events.

Stay safe.

2020-09-17

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (112HI→112HI), Spain (198HI→196HI), U.S. (529HI→512HI), New York (1702HI→1702HI), France (22→22), Malta (27→28), Romania (48→46), Austria (48→47), Denmark (55→48), India (51→51), U.K. (66→60), Iran (119→113), Toronto (121→121), Italy (149→148), Indonesia (146→149), Canada (176→161), Norway (164→161), Turkey (186→184), Germany (201→192), Ontario (219→205), Malaysia (531→562), Thailand (2985→3569), Sweden (63→16693)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Denmark, U.K., Iran, Canada, Germany, Ontario

Worse: Spain, Romania, Norway, Turkey

The same: Austria, Italy

Better: Israel, France, Malta, India, Toronto, Indonesia

Much better: Sweden

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (65→87, 8.3%), South Korea (132→128, 40.0%), Louisiana (162→133, 20.5%), Singapore (170→163, 3.7%), Mexico (295→228, 65.1%), Australia (466→252, 23.4%), China (588→543, 0.6%), Japan (new→688, 43.0%), South Africa (686→903, 30.8%), Brazil (1290→1133, 73.5%), Poland (699→1304, 60.5%), California (12024→7140, 92.0%), Alabama (new→57575, 97.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Barbados (14, 13.5%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 49.0%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 10.9%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Niger (14, 1.8%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 6.3%); Taiwan (14, 6.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (15, 13.5%); Mongolia (46, 9.1%); Djibouti (51, 0.2%); Zambia (57, 30.9%); Chad (65, 12.2%); Suriname (66, 45.5%); Guinea (71, 28.4%); Namibia (75, 53.5%); Ghana (79, 8.9%); Benin (81, 36.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (86, 6.5%); Vietnam (93, 18.7%); Nigeria (105, 46.1%); Bhutan (110, 83.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (111, 9.7%); Maldives (116, 53.8%); Egypt (153, 27.4%); Eswatini (156, 39.5%); Afghanistan (187, 35.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (199, 11.8%); El Salvador (206, 65.1%); Croatia (232, 75.9%); Cabo Verde (237, 49.2%); Rwanda (237, 69.0%); Kazakhstan (243, 11.4%); Gabon (288, 30.6%); Guatemala (315, 41.1%); Monaco (392, 69.6%); Saudi Arabia (420, 27.3%); Philippines (485, 72.6%); Kyrgyzstan (534, 21.5%); Gambia (558, 64.8%); Cuba (601, 74.9%); Moldova (624, 89.9%); Ecuador (645, 43.2%); Papua New Guinea (696, 69.6%); Belize (848, 87.3%); Zimbabwe (876, 54.3%); Syria (884, 95.3%); Ethiopia (917, 88.1%); Haiti (920, 69.9%); Azerbaijan (988, 22.4%); Bolivia (1025, 82.5%); Panama (1160, 95.8%); North Macedonia (1247, 45.4%); Chile (1356, 18.5%); Bangladesh (1387, 86.7%); Somalia (1897, 41.6%); Kenya (2178, 76.9%); Senegal (2240, 79.5%); Finland (2309, 33.0%); Malawi (3996, 73.1%); Yemen (5227, 37.1%); Equatorial Guinea (5685, 16.7%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (6011, 95.9%); Madagascar (9127, 32.3%); Peru (11688, 75.2%); Tajikistan (11966, 61.1%); Bulgaria (26727, 84.7%); Kuwait (45414, 58.4%); Qatar (49139, 9.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (15): VI (94, 15.9%); GU (117, 64.4%); NC (153, 59.4%); MS (159, 42.8%); NH (208, 14.7%); VT (364, 20.3%); MA (465, 19.5%); HI (559, 85.3%); IN (766, 87.3%); OH (962, 77.2%); ND (2652, 98.5%); IA (4250, 98.4%); OR (5024, 97.9%); MN (6159, 54.9%); FL (9172, 86.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%)

There were 85 new cases reported in Toronto today (per Ontario statistics). That's a few cases below the weeks's average, which was 62% above the previous week's average.

Ontario saw 293 new cases today, about 30 cases above the one-week average, which was up 56% over the previous week. All regions of the province are seeing steady increases, except for the Northwest, which has been free of new cases since August 26th. There are now 2,427 active cases in Ontario, which we last exceeded on June 15.

In CMAJ numbers, active cases in British Columbia are up 17% in a week to 1,724; Alberta is up 3% to 1,483; Saskatchewan is up 65% to 109; Manitoba 2% to 293; Quebec up 38% to 2,553; New Brunswick is steady at 3; P.E.I is down from 8 to 1; Nova Scotia down from 2 to 1; Newfoundland and Labrador went up from 1 to 2 and back down to 1. The territories remain free of COVID-19.

This week's chart shows how long it has been since there was a new sporadic case in each of Toronto's neighbourhoods. Here is where you can interact with this week's chart.

It looks very different from the version I published two weeks ago at https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uuXOK/1/ .

Stay safe.

2020-09-16

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (120HI→112HI), Spain (198HI→198HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), U.S. (554HI→529HI), New York (1797HI→1702HI), France (23→22), Malta (31→27), Austria (55→48), Romania (52→48), India (52→51), Denmark (55→55), Sweden (63→63), U.K. (66→66), Iran (124→119), Toronto (124→121), Indonesia (150→146), Italy (149→149), Norway (147→164), Canada (190→176), Turkey (187→186), Germany (208→201), Ontario (243→219), Japan (392→389), Malaysia (578→531), Thailand (3771→2985)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Malta, Austria, Romania, Iran, Indonesia, Canada, Germany, Ontario

Worse: Toronto

The same: France, India, Turkey

Better: Spain, Denmark, Sweden, U.K., Italy

Much better: Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (64→65, 8.5%), South Korea (153→132, 41.2%), Louisiana (new→162, 19.5%), Singapore (952→170, 4.0%), Mexico (404→295, 66.1%), Australia (223→466, 24.6%), China (1709→588, 0.6%), South Africa (12474→686, 30.4%), Poland (472→699, 60.3%), Brazil (3159→1290, 73.1%), California (31286→12024, 92.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (86): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 49.0%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritania (14, 11.6%); Monaco (14, 71.3%); Niger (14, 1.8%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 6.3%); Taiwan (14, 6.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Yemen (14, 36.9%); Comoros (15, 13.5%); Barbados (18, 15.4%); Djibouti (21, 0.2%); Mongolia (46, 9.1%); Namibia (61, 55.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (63, 9.6%); Benin (70, 34.6%); Ghana (71, 8.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (86, 6.5%); Vietnam (89, 19.8%); Maldives (107, 56.5%); Suriname (109, 52.7%); Bhutan (127, 83.5%); Iceland (129, 5.7%); Zambia (142, 40.5%); Eswatini (145, 38.9%); Guinea (153, 35.8%); Egypt (164, 29.3%); Liberia (179, 6.7%); Chad (209, 15.5%); Croatia (234, 76.0%); Libya (236, 84.5%); Cyprus (245, 45.7%); Kazakhstan (245, 11.7%); Rwanda (247, 71.2%); Cuba (256, 67.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (273, 12.3%); Afghanistan (283, 37.8%); El Salvador (320, 69.6%); Gambia (347, 65.7%); Gabon (370, 31.2%); Ecuador (431, 37.0%); Kyrgyzstan (436, 21.8%); Saudi Arabia (456, 27.9%); Guatemala (470, 43.1%); Belize (529, 91.0%); Philippines (574, 69.1%); Ethiopia (652, 88.4%); Switzerland (755, 40.6%); Azerbaijan (759, 22.6%); Bolivia (772, 83.1%); Syria (783, 96.0%); North Macedonia (847, 44.8%); Togo (985, 90.1%); Moldova (1245, 88.5%); Peru (1246, 77.2%); Bangladesh (1312, 87.5%); Papua New Guinea (1725, 70.9%); Somalia (1897, 41.6%); Zimbabwe (1960, 54.9%); Pakistan (2044, 5.7%); Panama (3909, 98.1%); Mali (4725, 74.6%); Qatar (4734, 9.3%); Equatorial Guinea (5685, 16.7%); Uruguay (5853, 78.2%); Malawi (6303, 73.1%); Dominican Republic (8391, 72.6%); Sudan (8517, 88.9%); Senegal (11426, 80.1%); Madagascar (11733, 31.3%); Iraq (13021, 99.3%); Kenya (73208, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (17): GU (109, 63.4%); MS (131, 40.0%); NC (135, 54.7%); VI (136, 14.6%); NH (183, 14.0%); MN (227, 48.1%); VT (286, 20.3%); MA (362, 18.4%); AR (474, 91.6%); HI (698, 88.4%); SD (1153, 79.9%); OH (1305, 78.1%); FL (8451, 86.5%); TX (10337, 45.4%); ND (21920, 91.8%); IN (24956, 88.0%); NV (30884, 90.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%)

Malta saw its first ever day with 100+ new cases. About half their new cases seem to be from close contact at home or work, and half at nursing homes. It is not clear to me why they are having trouble containing transmission.

Toronto's municipal COVID-19 indicators are showing two out of nine in the red (7-day moving average of new cases moving upward, only 31% of test results available within 24 hours), and another two out of nine in the yellow (related to hospitalizations and institutional outbreaks).

There were 82 new cases in Toronto, the second highest count since June. We now have 761 active cases, a level that we previously exceeded from April 5 to July 4. Total hospital cases were down over two days from 25 to 20, but of those the ICU cases were up from 5 to 7 and intubations from 2 to 4.

Two more public schools in Toronto reported cases (Brookhaven P.S. and York Mills C.I.), bringing us to a total of six in this first week of classes for most students.

The two new sporadic cases in our neighbourhood (the first since June 2nd), were announced today as a woman in her twenties who acquired COVID-19 in the community on the weekend, and a woman in her thirties who acquired it through close contact.

Today's chart shows how many cases there were in each neighbourhood in the last week, a significant change from the previous week. You can interact with it here

Here's last week's for comparison: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KinG3/1/

There were 315 new cases in the province of Ontario today, the largest number since June 7th. The media are reporting on a recent uptick in cases and deaths in long-term care (where maintaining adequate staffing is reportedly a serious problem). Premier Ford is actively discussing how to reinstitute social gathering limits in Toronto, Peel and Ottawa. He also tried unsuccessfully in today's news conference to shift blame to municipal governments (for not acting unilaterally to lock down) and the federal government (for not enforcing its quarantine rules more strictly). The media was quick to respond with hard-to-answer questions about strip clubs and Conservative political weddings. The Premier appears to be having difficulty reconciling conflicting desires to keep his business supporters staffed at a profitable level, and his constituents alive and healthy.

Seven of ten provinces have seen increasing numbers of active cases over the last few days. As indicated above, the only ones whose situations are improving are P.E.I., Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Stay safe.

2020-09-15

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (120HI→120HI), Spain (139HI→198HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (636HI→554HI), New York (1816HI→1797HI), France (25→23), Malta (34→31), India (52→52), Romania (52→52), Austria (55→55), Denmark (63→55), U.K. (69→66), Iran (132→124), Toronto (131→124), Italy (147→149), Indonesia (150→150), Turkey (187→187), Canada (173→190), Germany (218→208), Ontario (254→243), Malaysia (484→578), Thailand (4272→3771)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Denmark, Iran, Toronto, Germany, Ontario

Worse: France, Malta, U.K.

Better: Israel, India, Romania, Austria, Italy, Indonesia, Turkey

Much better: Spain, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (94→64, 8.9%), Norway (94→102, 41.4%), South Korea (218→153, 45.8%), Australia (194→223, 25.0%), Mexico (new→404, 68.6%), Poland (353→472, 59.6%), Japan (685→661, 43.8%), Singapore (561→952, 4.3%), China (316→1709, 0.7%), Brazil (new→3159, 74.1%), Alabama (13863→3310, 96.6%), South Africa (2981→12474, 32.2%), California (56742→31286, 92.4%), Sweden (new→210151, 83.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Eritrea (14, 41.3%); Fiji (14, 49.0%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.9%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 6.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 6.3%); Seychelles (14, 4.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Djibouti (21, 0.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Niger (30, 1.4%); Barbados (33, 21.2%); Comoros (39, 22.1%); Liberia (39, 5.6%); Mongolia (46, 9.1%); Congo (Kinshasa) (48, 9.6%); Benin (70, 34.6%); Vietnam (85, 20.8%); Ghana (97, 9.9%); Maldives (101, 60.4%); Namibia (104, 68.6%); Iceland (111, 5.7%); Eswatini (123, 39.0%); Guinea (149, 38.3%); Monaco (152, 71.3%); Egypt (168, 31.2%); Suriname (183, 57.3%); Papua New Guinea (186, 71.3%); Gabon (195, 31.2%); Cuba (199, 68.1%); Cyprus (213, 44.6%); Croatia (231, 80.1%); Bhutan (237, 89.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (256, 12.6%); Afghanistan (279, 37.7%); Somalia (293, 42.3%); Rwanda (310, 72.9%); Libya (326, 83.5%); Guyana (330, 91.8%); Kyrgyzstan (351, 21.9%); Gambia (424, 67.2%); Colombia (426, 54.2%); Togo (427, 89.5%); Luxembourg (510, 25.3%); Guatemala (514, 43.9%); Philippines (514, 64.7%); Saudi Arabia (522, 28.6%); Ethiopia (556, 89.0%); Senegal (615, 78.0%); Bolivia (647, 84.1%); El Salvador (673, 74.2%); Azerbaijan (953, 22.9%); Haiti (1165, 73.2%); Bangladesh (1340, 88.2%); Syria (1362, 96.7%); Ecuador (1531, 35.0%); Equatorial Guinea (1634, 16.7%); Mauritania (1924, 10.9%); Peru (1927, 78.6%); Dominican Republic (2523, 72.4%); North Macedonia (2929, 45.2%); Qatar (3083, 9.2%); Jamaica (3544, 99.1%); Belize (3806, 91.7%); Malawi (4668, 73.2%); Panama (8064, 98.8%); Pakistan (10307, 5.5%); Sudan (12979, 88.9%); Kenya (60073, 77.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): VI (80, 15.9%); MS (115, 37.1%); NC (133, 51.3%); GU (200, 68.6%); NH (274, 15.5%); MN (290, 50.1%); WY (426, 72.2%); SD (643, 78.1%); MI (693, 93.8%); TN (849, 35.7%); HI (854, 89.8%); MP (1058, 93.6%); TX (1180, 44.8%); NV (9184, 90.5%); FL (10513, 86.2%); OH (35661, 79.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); MB (388, 57.5%)

Ontario's 251 new cases kept us above 200 for the fifth day in a row, as last happened at the beginning of June. Four long-term care residents died, the most in a day since August 27th. Active cases climbed 130 to 2,157.

The number of schools in Ontario with confirmed cases of COVID-19 nearly doubled today, from 15 to 29. The Toronto District School Board, which started reopening for the new school year today, reported four staff cases at four different schools across the city. (Our sons have been told that their online schooling, originally scheduled to start today too, won't start before Thursday of next week.) Ottawa has the most affected schools, with nine. The rest, except for one in Pembroke, are in the greater Toronto area.

This week's chart shows which parts of Ontario (in pink) are doing worse per capita in the past week than in the week before that, and which are doing better (in green). You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-09-14

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (124HI→120HI), Spain (193HI→139HI), Brazil (455HI→455HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (566HI→636HI), New York (1816HI→1816HI), France (25→25), Malta (36→34), India (52→52), Romania (51→52), Austria (56→55), Denmark (63→63), Sweden (63→63), U.K. (68→69), Mexico (87→87), Toronto (149→131), Iran (132→132), Italy (145→147), Indonesia (150→150), Canada (202→173), Turkey (187→187), Germany (209→218), Ontario (278→254), Malaysia (453→484), Thailand (4418→4272)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Spain, Toronto, Canada, Ontario

Worse: Malta

The same: Austria

Better: France, India, Romania, Denmark, Sweden, U.K., Mexico, Iran, Italy, Indonesia, Turkey, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (83→94, 10.3%), Norway (96→94, 38.3%), Australia (203→194, 25.7%), South Korea (220→218, 50.0%), China (253→316, 0.7%), Poland (292→353, 60.0%), Singapore (new→561, 4.3%), Japan (560→685, 44.5%), South Africa (2101→2981, 32.5%), Alabama (13863, no new data, 97.4%), California (56742, no new data, 92.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Comoros (14, 32.7%); Fiji (14, 49.0%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 6.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 6.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (14, 6.5%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Barbados (23, 19.2%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Niger (30, 1.4%); Liberia (51, 5.9%); Benin (70, 34.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (70, 11.2%); Maldives (101, 65.5%); Iceland (103, 5.7%); Namibia (105, 69.8%); Vietnam (109, 22.4%); Mongolia (142, 10.0%); Egypt (172, 33.1%); Papua New Guinea (172, 70.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (173, 12.7%); Cyprus (182, 43.2%); Mauritania (202, 10.5%); Suriname (208, 63.0%); Monaco (221, 68.0%); Colombia (279, 55.5%); Somalia (293, 42.3%); Libya (320, 82.3%); Rwanda (323, 73.9%); Guinea (326, 40.9%); Kyrgyzstan (331, 22.3%); Belize (373, 90.4%); Philippines (380, 59.3%); Cameroon (408, 21.9%); Gabon (415, 33.8%); Bolivia (433, 84.4%); Croatia (479, 87.0%); Gambia (479, 67.2%); Afghanistan (524, 40.4%); Saudi Arabia (590, 29.4%); Guyana (601, 94.9%); Ethiopia (639, 89.9%); Ghana (676, 12.7%); Senegal (738, 78.4%); Bhutan (786, 90.6%); Guatemala (812, 44.9%); Jamaica (840, 95.0%); Pakistan (1260, 5.6%); Bangladesh (1288, 88.9%); Zimbabwe (1297, 56.9%); Azerbaijan (1377, 23.2%); Kazakhstan (1571, 13.3%); Eswatini (1577, 46.4%); Sudan (1584, 88.4%); Honduras (2172, 94.9%); Equatorial Guinea (2294, 16.8%); Qatar (2367, 9.3%); Haiti (2901, 73.0%); Togo (3020, 92.5%); Kuwait (3674, 58.2%); Zambia (4894, 43.2%); Kenya (5071, 78.2%); Dominican Republic (5112, 72.9%); Malawi (5217, 74.0%); Syria (5895, 97.4%); El Salvador (6584, 78.3%); Panama (31573, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): VI (32, 19.3%); WY (182, 82.8%); VT (306, 21.5%); MP (523, 92.3%); TN (548, 34.3%); HI (556, 91.0%); TX (573, 44.1%); MI (834, 88.4%); NV (2342, 90.7%); WA (7223, 98.3%); MN (13808, 55.3%); NM (133476, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (35, 40.0%); MB (47, 51.1%); AB (342, 46.2%)

Ontario's active case count increased by 180 to 2,030 today. That's the first time since June that we have had more than 2,000, and the first time since April 23rd that our active cases have increased so much in a day.

Two new schools reported cases in Mississauga and Pembroke, bringing the provincial total to 15. No schools in Toronto proper have reported cases, presumably because they haven't been open long enough.

Today's chart shows the cumulative cases reported in each region in the province, illustrating the recent exponential growth in our area.

Toronto saw 124 new cases, including two new sporadic cases in our Playter Estates neighbourhood, which hadn't seen any cases since June 2nd. June 8th was the last time we saw as many as 124 new cases in a day.

I am glad that I stocked up on toilet paper yesterday, and surprised that Loblaws had it on sale.

Stay safe.

2020-09-13

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (129HI→124HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), Louisiana (485HI→485HI), U.S. (558HI→566HI), New York (1816HI→1816HI), Singapore (3911HI→3821HI), France (25→25), Malta (45→36), Romania (51→51), India (52→52), Austria (61→56), Denmark (82→63), Sweden (63→63), U.K. (70→68), Mexico (87→87), Iran (135→132), Italy (148→145), Toronto (154→149), Indonesia (150→150), Turkey (186→187), Germany (214→209), Ontario (287→278), Malaysia (492→453)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Malta, Austria, Denmark, Toronto, Germany, Ontario

Worse: U.K., Iran, Italy

Better: Spain, France, Romania, India, Sweden, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (156→14, 7.1%), New Zealand (165→83, 10.4%), Norway (95→96, 36.4%), Australia (177→203, 26.7%), South Korea (184→220, 52.3%), China (188→253, 0.7%), Poland (281→292, 62.4%), Japan (420→560, 45.4%), Canada (new→2014, 20.6%), South Africa (1940→2101, 32.5%), Alabama (2181→13863, 97.4%), Brazil (1696→27663, 77.1%), California (3808→56742, 92.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Comoros (14, 32.7%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 6.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Liechtenstein (16, 10.9%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Liberia (41, 5.2%); Vietnam (80, 23.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (98, 12.2%); Barbados (109, 28.8%); Iceland (110, 6.1%); Niger (110, 1.8%); Cameroon (111, 18.1%); Maldives (126, 70.9%); Latvia (159, 42.2%); Mongolia (176, 11.8%); Cyprus (179, 42.6%); Colombia (188, 55.2%); Egypt (191, 35.4%); Cote d'Ivoire (200, 13.7%); Papua New Guinea (202, 71.9%); Gabon (206, 33.8%); Pakistan (207, 5.4%); Namibia (232, 83.9%); Belize (287, 90.4%); Somalia (287, 42.2%); Guinea (307, 41.9%); Kyrgyzstan (315, 23.0%); Libya (338, 79.6%); Togo (384, 88.2%); Armenia (387, 26.0%); Kazakhstan (416, 13.2%); Equatorial Guinea (470, 16.8%); Bolivia (528, 86.2%); Peru (531, 75.5%); Mauritania (542, 11.2%); Rwanda (544, 78.9%); Afghanistan (581, 42.8%); Suriname (592, 68.8%); Zimbabwe (635, 56.3%); Gambia (689, 68.5%); Croatia (842, 87.7%); Ethiopia (868, 92.3%); Senegal (885, 80.8%); Saudi Arabia (930, 30.1%); Ghana (967, 12.7%); Sudan (1008, 87.3%); Honduras (1078, 93.8%); Bangladesh (1207, 89.8%); Guinea-Bissau (1490, 77.9%); Malawi (1616, 73.7%); Azerbaijan (1975, 23.2%); Haiti (2252, 72.5%); Chile (2393, 19.1%); Qatar (2909, 9.2%); Kenya (3271, 78.3%); Russia (3457, 70.0%); El Salvador (4073, 78.2%); Guatemala (5144, 46.4%); Panama (7945, 99.5%); Serbia (8557, 82.4%); Nigeria (10030, 66.4%); Morocco (17776, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): VI (32, 19.3%); WY (182, 82.8%); AR (304, 75.0%); VT (306, 21.5%); MP (523, 92.3%); TN (548, 34.3%); HI (556, 91.0%); TX (573, 44.1%); MI (834, 88.4%); RI (2296, 97.5%); NV (2342, 90.7%); WA (7223, 98.4%); MN (13808, 55.3%); NM (133476, 93.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (35, 40.0%); MB (47, 51.1%); AB (342, 46.2%)

Malta is doing poorly, and its 78 new cases were the most since July. Malta had a slight virtual improvement when they stopped counting migrants in their official numbers, but they have significant community and workplace transmission now, and a third of today's cases were from one nursing home.

Israel is doing worse. For the first time, it's had a week of more than 2,000 new cases each day, and its second wave now has more active cases than the first one did, a feat also recently achieved by France, Spain and the U.K.

Today's chart shows how European countries are faring with their active case counts.

Ontario's active case count increased by 80 today to 1,850 (about where we were at the beginning of July), after 204 new cases were offset by only 124 recoveries. It was the third straight day of 200+ new cases, something that hasn't happened since June 11th. June was a relatively happy time. We were getting the hang of COVID-19, kept our masks on and stayed distant. We could tell that things were getting better, and there was a faint hope that we would mostly be over it by fall. Instead we threw it all away so that we could send people to unnecessarily dangerous jobs to catch COVID-19 and share it with their family members, and celebrated the warm weather by gathering in large numbers and breathing at each other. Right now is not a happy time. Now is the time when we see that we wasted the summer months, and are putting our children and their educators at risk sending them back to school in the middle of a global pandemic.

Stay safe.

2020-09-12

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (137HI→129HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), U.S. (541HI→558HI), New York (1831HI→1816HI), Singapore (3994HI→3911HI), France (27→25), Malta (44→45), Romania (51→51), India (53→52), Austria (71→61), Sweden (63→63), U.K. (77→70), Denmark (98→82), Mexico (85→87), Iran (135→135), Italy (145→148), Indonesia (153→150), Toronto (168→154), Turkey (183→186), Canada (214→207), Germany (221→214), Ontario (302→287), Malaysia (551→492)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Austria, U.K., Denmark, Toronto, Canada, Germany, Ontario

Worse: France, Indonesia

The same: India

Better: Spain, Malta, Romania, Sweden, Mexico, Iran, Italy, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Norway (new→95, 34.5%), Thailand (136→156, 6.3%), Louisiana (169→158, 24.8%), New Zealand (630→165, 11.6%), Australia (275→177, 26.4%), South Korea (217→184, 53.5%), China (170→188, 0.7%), Poland (242→281, 63.9%), Japan (402→420, 45.7%), Brazil (687→1696, 76.3%), South Africa (756→1940, 32.5%), Alabama (5489→2181, 97.2%), California (2858→3808, 92.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (71): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Cambodia (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 2.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (18, 1.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Barbados (75, 28.8%); Vietnam (82, 25.1%); Liberia (123, 7.4%); Latvia (145, 41.0%); Papua New Guinea (151, 71.9%); Luxembourg (163, 26.7%); Maldives (165, 76.2%); Mongolia (176, 11.8%); Somalia (177, 42.2%); Armenia (184, 26.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (185, 13.7%); Egypt (198, 37.3%); Gabon (206, 33.8%); Colombia (219, 57.2%); Rwanda (295, 81.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (304, 14.4%); Kyrgyzstan (306, 23.6%); Guinea (313, 43.1%); Pakistan (353, 5.8%); Iceland (368, 6.6%); Croatia (465, 87.7%); Equatorial Guinea (470, 16.8%); Afghanistan (481, 43.1%); Nepal (481, 81.1%); Chile (524, 18.8%); Suriname (568, 67.9%); Comoros (582, 32.7%); Kosovo (647, 77.6%); North Macedonia (656, 46.6%); Kazakhstan (683, 13.6%); Bolivia (733, 88.1%); Honduras (764, 91.9%); Moldova (790, 91.4%); Senegal (944, 80.3%); Bangladesh (1112, 90.8%); Sudan (1304, 89.3%); Zimbabwe (1371, 55.8%); Haiti (1434, 71.9%); Guinea-Bissau (1490, 77.9%); Ethiopia (1549, 94.4%); Malawi (1649, 73.5%); Mauritania (1661, 11.6%); Saudi Arabia (1771, 30.6%); Kenya (1963, 77.9%); Russia (2005, 70.0%); Peru (2345, 80.3%); El Salvador (3218, 78.4%); Dominican Republic (4069, 73.0%); Serbia (4190, 82.3%); Namibia (5155, 96.7%); Yemen (5199, 36.9%); Qatar (5273, 9.3%); West Bank and Gaza (5989, 96.0%); Togo (9034, 92.5%); Guatemala (65202, 46.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (21): VI (25, 16.6%); WY (164, 79.6%); TN (333, 34.3%); VT (349, 21.9%); MN (401, 56.4%); AR (518, 81.0%); MP (523, 92.3%); SD (540, 82.3%); PA (934, 70.1%); TX (980, 46.6%); HI (1263, 93.1%); OK (1309, 96.8%); KS (1457, 97.2%); MA (1469, 20.5%); MI (1756, 88.4%); NV (2248, 90.7%); ME (2701, 68.3%); MT (2732, 94.4%); RI (4882, 98.0%); CO (10910, 99.6%); NM (27968, 93.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (9): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 0.2%); MB (49, 50.9%); PE (94, 40.0%); AB (201, 46.2%); QC (873, 9.3%)

Ontario had more than 200 new cases today for the second day in a row, something that hadn't happened since early June. 86% of the cases were in Toronto (77), Peel (62) and the rest of the Central East (33), and Ottawa (27). It was the first time in over a month that Toronto had two consecutive 70+ days. In Ontario today, we had one new case for every seven active cases, meaning that each active cases is infecting on average two new cases during its 14-day term.

Today's chart plots estimated active cases vs. rate of change.

Stay safe.

2020-09-11

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (150HI→137HI), Spain (195HI→193HI), U.S. (523HI→541HI), New York (1784HI→1831HI), France (30→27), Romania (52→51), India (54→53), Sweden (69→63), Austria (77→71), U.K. (84→77), Denmark (98→98), Iran (138→135), Italy (144→145), Indonesia (154→153), Norway (152→159), Toronto (182→168), Turkey (184→183), Canada (217→214), Germany (224→221), Ontario (319→302), Malaysia (917→551)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Sweden, Austria, U.K., Toronto, Ontario

Worse: Spain, France, Iran, Canada, Germany

The same: Romania, India, Indonesia, Turkey

Better: Denmark, Italy, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (103→136, 6.3%), Louisiana (142→169, 24.8%), China (233→170, 0.7%), South Korea (238→217, 57.6%), Poland (177→242, 64.9%), Australia (326→275, 29.1%), Japan (373→402, 46.5%), New Zealand (new→630, 12.3%), Brazil (654→687, 75.4%), South Africa (771→756, 32.4%), Malta (952→949, 55.4%), Singapore (466→1039, 4.5%), Mexico (538→2114, 76.7%), California (2903→2858, 92.5%), Alabama (1696→5489, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Cambodia (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (23, 2.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (47, 52.9%); Vietnam (53, 26.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (81, 6.2%); Latvia (105, 38.5%); Cabo Verde (118, 51.1%); Mongolia (176, 11.8%); Liberia (178, 8.5%); Luxembourg (178, 26.7%); Gabon (180, 36.4%); Rwanda (185, 80.9%); North Macedonia (189, 45.7%); Armenia (200, 26.2%); Burundi (207, 78.3%); Egypt (211, 39.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (212, 14.1%); Barbados (229, 30.8%); Colombia (234, 60.8%); Suriname (234, 66.9%); Nepal (250, 78.5%); Equatorial Guinea (254, 17.0%); Iceland (260, 6.8%); Maldives (269, 83.3%); Kyrgyzstan (305, 24.1%); Pakistan (309, 5.5%); Kazakhstan (355, 13.4%); Chad (359, 10.0%); Somalia (467, 46.5%); Croatia (476, 92.6%); Afghanistan (550, 43.0%); Comoros (582, 32.7%); Peru (589, 80.7%); Papua New Guinea (631, 80.8%); Kosovo (647, 77.6%); Chile (672, 18.7%); Honduras (748, 94.4%); Mauritania (789, 11.0%); Sudan (847, 89.2%); Guinea (901, 46.4%); Lesotho (918, 79.5%); Bangladesh (1022, 91.5%); Senegal (1057, 82.6%); Bolivia (1245, 90.1%); Guatemala (1398, 47.3%); Guinea-Bissau (1490, 77.9%); Eswatini (1573, 49.2%); Kenya (1585, 77.8%); Yemen (1722, 36.6%); Namibia (2124, 95.9%); Malawi (2417, 73.8%); Saudi Arabia (2472, 31.0%); Azerbaijan (2542, 23.7%); El Salvador (2578, 78.5%); Ethiopia (3087, 96.2%); Serbia (3448, 82.2%); Qatar (3990, 9.3%); Dominican Republic (6509, 73.6%); Russia (7551, 70.2%); South Sudan (77137, 58.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): VI (34, 20.0%); GU (126, 79.2%); MS (138, 52.2%); WY (194, 77.0%); MN (223, 56.8%); VT (243, 20.8%); SD (244, 82.3%); TX (301, 46.6%); TN (355, 37.4%); ND (385, 88.6%); MA (499, 19.1%); ME (546, 65.4%); HI (605, 93.7%); OK (653, 94.2%); MT (674, 89.2%); OH (1245, 79.7%); IN (1252, 85.1%); KS (1457, 97.2%); NV (1748, 90.9%); NM (4225, 93.4%); IA (9206, 99.5%); AZ (21445, 80.3%); US (24939, 99.8%); ID (258352, 96.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%); MB (71, 61.3%); QC (456, 9.2%)

There were more than 70 new cases in Toronto today, taking us back to the beginning of July by this measure of intensity, and mid-July according to the 546 known active cases in the city. Mayor Tory announced today the opening of our first COVID-19 hotel: a hotel leased to the city for a year to provide isolation for those whose living circumstances would make it difficult for them to avoid transmitting the disease to their families. Toronto Public Health will provide food, accommodation and laundry services to qualifying individuals for up to 14 days of quarantine. They have already been doing this successfully with homeless people, and the idea has apparently been effective in major American cities.

Today's chart plots the age rates per capita of Toronto's cases by time, and shows how those in their 20s and 30s are still leading the way.

Ontario had 213 new cases today, a level which was last matched in late June; the last time we had 1,657 active cases was July 8th. After two days below 20, Ottawa jumped back up to its recent high of 37 new cases; Waterloo had 15 new cases (the most since June 1st). These, together with Toronto and the 64 cases in the Central East, made up 88% of the new cases today.

Ontario has started reported daily on COVID-19 in schools. Today, there are 13 schools with active COVID-19 cases, 6 in Ottawa, 2 each in Brampton and Oshawa, and 1 each in Mississauga, Pickering, and Waterloo.

Stay safe.

2020-09-10

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (152HI→150HI), Spain (197HI→197HI), U.S. (469HI→506HI), New York (1736HI→1784HI), France (32→30), Romania (52→52), India (55→54), Sweden (77→76), Austria (91→85), U.K. (99→91), Denmark (123→123), Iran (144→139), Italy (149→147), Indonesia (154→154), Norway (167→167), Turkey (183→182), Toronto (202→195), Canada (222→220), Germany (233→231), Ontario (303→329), Malaysia (1134→1043), New Zealand (1360→1318), Thailand (4389→5793)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, U.K., Iran, Toronto

Worse: Israel, France, Italy, Canada, Germany

The same: India, Sweden, Turkey

Better: Spain, Romania, Denmark, Indonesia, Norway, Ontario

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (84→133, 4.2%), Poland (144→144, 71.6%), China (175→163, 0.7%), Louisiana (new→177, 22.3%), Malta (202→200, 50.9%), Australia (232→331, 31.6%), Japan (180→336, 48.7%), South Korea (612→359, 61.5%), South Africa (491→565, 33.2%), Brazil (1654→665, 77.2%), Mexico (1141→778, 73.5%), Alabama (14823→2235, 97.7%), California (8470→2775, 92.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (6, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 79.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 12.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 19.0%); Tajikistan (14, 60.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); San Marino (16, 4.9%); Niger (23, 2.0%); Liberia (31, 7.6%); Congo (Brazzaville) (45, 51.1%); Vietnam (48, 30.8%); Cyprus (82, 48.8%); Iceland (111, 7.3%); Pakistan (129, 6.5%); Armenia (160, 28.5%); Cuba (166, 67.5%); Cabo Verde (169, 49.8%); Kazakhstan (187, 14.4%); Philippines (187, 63.6%); Nepal (193, 80.7%); Rwanda (205, 83.8%); North Macedonia (216, 46.0%); Egypt (223, 43.7%); United Arab Emirates (224, 46.1%); Papua New Guinea (241, 80.7%); Barbados (247, 32.7%); Eswatini (250, 46.5%); Suriname (288, 72.3%); Benin (293, 46.1%); Kyrgyzstan (300, 25.6%); Gabon (321, 39.1%); Afghanistan (322, 45.6%); Lesotho (386, 76.4%); Guatemala (418, 46.8%); Botswana (449, 93.5%); Equatorial Guinea (449, 17.8%); Mauritania (454, 11.8%); Kosovo (487, 77.6%); Croatia (513, 91.3%); Colombia (621, 71.4%); Maldives (663, 92.1%); Luxembourg (839, 26.1%); Senegal (878, 84.1%); Guyana (892, 90.7%); Malawi (952, 75.2%); Burundi (957, 75.8%); Haiti (1013, 73.6%); Bangladesh (1169, 93.5%); Gambia (1259, 71.7%); Kenya (1413, 79.2%); Sri Lanka (1545, 20.4%); Namibia (1666, 97.8%); El Salvador (1709, 79.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (1745, 15.8%); Honduras (2239, 97.6%); Azerbaijan (2356, 23.6%); Peru (2461, 82.9%); Yemen (2620, 37.1%); Serbia (3193, 82.8%); Saudi Arabia (4045, 31.5%); Qatar (4762, 9.3%); Ethiopia (4938, 97.1%); Somalia (5000, 46.5%); Sudan (8681, 90.5%); Angola (9810, 98.8%); Central African Republic (12665, 61.9%); Greece (39588, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (29): GU (107, 76.2%); MS (109, 46.6%); MN (131, 55.4%); NC (139, 61.8%); SD (149, 79.6%); ND (252, 83.7%); MA (321, 16.9%); TX (358, 47.9%); VT (372, 23.1%); ME (424, 65.1%); NH (427, 12.7%); TN (552, 36.9%); PA (797, 68.5%); IN (1091, 84.3%); NE (1196, 96.6%); KY (1217, 96.6%); HI (1348, 97.2%); NM (5909, 93.9%); KS (6070, 96.4%); OH (6257, 77.8%); GA (8317, 98.5%); ID (10030, 95.2%); SC (10556, 98.7%); OR (11902, 99.5%); RI (14504, 99.7%); AZ (17943, 80.1%); NV (22847, 92.3%); CT (30666, 88.4%); FL (160588, 86.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.6%); MB (505, 86.3%)

When I started tracking these numbers, it was harder to find good COVID-19 data than it is today. Johns Hopkins University had their global data and American data, but it came out only nightly, inconveniently late, didn't include Canadian provinces, and lacked explanation of its frequent anomalies. For many regions of interest, I was able to find standardized Wikipedia pages that were updated often more than daily, and had interesting discussions about what was going on with shifting data criteria. The COVIDTracking.com project had better coverage of U.S. state. The CMAJ dataset had its own idiosyncrasies, but was in an easy to fetch and parse format, and of course had complete Canadian coverage. And for Ontario and Toronto of course, I have good open data. So I had been patching together the regions of interest stats from non-JHU sources, and supplementing them with JHU for global figures.

Across Ontario, numbers were down somewhat from 185 to 149 new cases. (Yesterday's 375 cases turned out to be a two-day total of 190 and 185.) Ottawa was down substantially, from 37 to 16, the lowest in four days, perhaps suggesting that they had finished counting all the people infected at a recent party; Peel, York and Toronto were relatively steady (at a level roughly twice that of two weeks ago), and there were no major flareups.

In Toronto, hospitalisations, which had declined daily since June 23rd (except for one single-case blip last month), soared back up from 22 to 26 in the last two days. Unresolved cases climbed from 465 to 507 in those two days. With one new case for every seven active cases, our R value is running close to 2.0.

Today's chart is one that I make weekly showing where the past week's cases were across the city. You can interact with it here.

The Toronto District School Board has delayed the start of school, already delayed a week, by an additional two days to September 17th, citing staffing complexities.

Stay safe.

2020-09-09

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (152HI→150HI), Spain (197HI→197HI), U.S. (469HI→506HI), New York (1736HI→1784HI), France (32→30), Romania (52→52), India (55→54), Sweden (77→76), Austria (91→85), U.K. (99→91), Denmark (123→123), Iran (144→139), Italy (149→147), Indonesia (154→154), Norway (167→167), Turkey (183→182), Toronto (202→195), Canada (222→220), Germany (233→231), Ontario (303→329), Malaysia (1134→1043), New Zealand (1360→1318), Thailand (4389→5793)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, U.K., Iran, Toronto

Worse: Israel, France, Italy, Canada, Germany

The same: India, Sweden, Turkey

Better: Spain, Romania, Denmark, Indonesia, Norway, Ontario

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (84→133, 4.2%), Poland (144→144, 71.6%), China (175→163, 0.7%), Louisiana (new→177, 22.3%), Malta (202→200, 50.9%), Australia (232→331, 31.6%), Japan (180→336, 48.7%), South Korea (612→359, 61.5%), South Africa (491→565, 33.2%), Brazil (1654→665, 77.2%), Mexico (1141→778, 73.5%), Alabama (14823→2235, 97.7%), California (8470→2775, 92.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (6, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Brunei (14, 2.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 79.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 12.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 19.0%); Tajikistan (14, 60.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); San Marino (16, 4.9%); Niger (23, 2.0%); Liberia (31, 7.6%); Congo (Brazzaville) (45, 51.1%); Vietnam (48, 30.8%); Cyprus (82, 48.8%); Iceland (111, 7.3%); Pakistan (129, 6.5%); Armenia (160, 28.5%); Cuba (166, 67.5%); Cabo Verde (169, 49.8%); Kazakhstan (187, 14.4%); Philippines (187, 63.6%); Nepal (193, 80.7%); Rwanda (205, 83.8%); North Macedonia (216, 46.0%); Egypt (223, 43.7%); United Arab Emirates (224, 46.1%); Papua New Guinea (241, 80.7%); Barbados (247, 32.7%); Eswatini (250, 46.5%); Suriname (288, 72.3%); Benin (293, 46.1%); Kyrgyzstan (300, 25.6%); Gabon (321, 39.1%); Afghanistan (322, 45.6%); Lesotho (386, 76.4%); Guatemala (418, 46.8%); Botswana (449, 93.5%); Equatorial Guinea (449, 17.8%); Mauritania (454, 11.8%); Kosovo (487, 77.6%); Croatia (513, 91.3%); Colombia (621, 71.4%); Maldives (663, 92.1%); Luxembourg (839, 26.1%); Senegal (878, 84.1%); Guyana (892, 90.7%); Malawi (952, 75.2%); Burundi (957, 75.8%); Haiti (1013, 73.6%); Bangladesh (1169, 93.5%); Gambia (1259, 71.7%); Kenya (1413, 79.2%); Sri Lanka (1545, 20.4%); Namibia (1666, 97.8%); El Salvador (1709, 79.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (1745, 15.8%); Honduras (2239, 97.6%); Azerbaijan (2356, 23.6%); Peru (2461, 82.9%); Yemen (2620, 37.1%); Serbia (3193, 82.8%); Saudi Arabia (4045, 31.5%); Qatar (4762, 9.3%); Ethiopia (4938, 97.1%); Somalia (5000, 46.5%); Sudan (8681, 90.5%); Angola (9810, 98.8%); Central African Republic (12665, 61.9%); Greece (39588, 99.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (29): GU (107, 76.2%); MS (109, 46.6%); MN (131, 55.4%); NC (139, 61.8%); SD (149, 79.6%); ND (252, 83.7%); MA (321, 16.9%); TX (358, 47.9%); VT (372, 23.1%); ME (424, 65.1%); NH (427, 12.7%); TN (552, 36.9%); PA (797, 68.5%); IN (1091, 84.3%); NE (1196, 96.6%); KY (1217, 96.6%); HI (1348, 97.2%); NM (5909, 93.9%); KS (6070, 96.4%); OH (6257, 77.8%); GA (8317, 98.5%); ID (10030, 95.2%); SC (10556, 98.7%); OR (11902, 99.5%); RI (14504, 99.7%); AZ (17943, 80.1%); NV (22847, 92.3%); CT (30666, 88.4%); FL (160588, 86.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 2.7%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.6%); MB (505, 86.3%)

When I started tracking these numbers, it was harder to find good COVID-19 data than it is today. Johns Hopkins University had their global data and American data, but it came out only nightly, inconveniently late, didn't include Canadian provinces, and lacked explanation of its frequent anomalies. For many regions of interest, I was able to find standardized Wikipedia pages that were updated often more than daily, and had interesting discussions about what was going on with shifting data criteria. The COVIDTracking.com project had better coverage of U.S. state. The CMAJ dataset had its own idiosyncrasies, but was in an easy to fetch and parse format, and of course had complete Canadian coverage. And for Ontario and Toronto of course, I have good open data. So I had been patching together the regions of interest stats from non-JHU sources, and supplementing them with JHU for global figures.

Across Ontario, numbers were down somewhat from 185 to 149 new cases. (Yesterday's 375 cases turned out to be a two-day total of 190 and 185.) Ottawa was down substantially, from 37 to 16, the lowest in four days, perhaps suggesting that they had finished counting all the people infected at a recent party; Peel, York and Toronto were relatively steady (at a level roughly twice that of two weeks ago), and there were no major flareups.

In Toronto, hospitalisations, which had declined daily since June 23rd (except for one single-case blip last month), soared back up from 22 to 26 in the last two days. Unresolved cases climbed from 465 to 507 in those two days. With one new case for every seven active cases, our R value is running close to 2.0.

Today's chart is one that I make weekly showing where the past week's cases were across the city. You can interact with it here.

The Toronto District School Board has delayed the start of school, already delayed a week, by an additional two days to September 17th, citing staffing complexities.

Stay safe.

2020-09-07

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (126HI→126HI), Israel (163HI→167HI), Spain (199HI→197HI), Brazil (306HI→353HI), U.S. (451HI→459HI), California (460HI→479HI), Louisiana (543HI→543HI), New York (1625HI→1625HI), Romania (54→53), India (57→56), Mexico (81→80), Austria (105→105), U.K. (121→107), Denmark (164→123), Iran (160→151), Indonesia (154→154), Italy (158→155), Norway (182→162), Turkey (188→186), Toronto (246→234), Canada (243→302), Ontario (385→385), New Zealand (941→1068), Malaysia (3671→1947), Thailand (3853→3854)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Denmark, Iran, Norway, Toronto

Worse: Spain, Italy, Turkey

The same: Romania, India, Mexico

Better: Alabama, Israel, Austria, Indonesia

Much better: Brazil, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (65→82, 4.6%), Poland (247→164, 76.7%), China (143→176, 0.8%), Australia (315→201, 33.0%), Japan (313→272, 51.2%), Malta (250→368, 56.9%), South Africa (943→950, 34.4%), South Korea (2474→1404, 67.9%), France (new→3976, 93.9%), Sweden (2496→5318, 81.5%), Germany (5245→381915, 25.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (8, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda, Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 100.0%); Eritrea (14, 25.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 4.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); San Marino (16, 4.9%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Belarus (38, 1.3%); Cameroon (46, 17.7%); Liberia (51, 9.3%); Vietnam (83, 40.5%); Cyprus (86, 48.6%); Barbados (87, 32.7%); Somalia (112, 49.3%); Kazakhstan (114, 14.8%); Niger (127, 3.3%); Iceland (128, 7.4%); Pakistan (130, 6.3%); Mauritania (131, 11.4%); Eswatini (146, 50.2%); Guyana (150, 79.3%); Philippines (168, 58.7%); Uzbekistan (171, 21.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (193, 7.4%); Armenia (195, 31.3%); United Arab Emirates (196, 44.5%); Sri Lanka (232, 19.6%); Gambia (234, 67.3%); Kyrgyzstan (238, 27.0%); Ghana (244, 12.7%); Afghanistan (247, 46.1%); Egypt (247, 48.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (281, 16.3%); Benin (293, 46.1%); Guinea (299, 48.0%); Bhutan (325, 91.8%); Papua New Guinea (335, 83.9%); Yemen (360, 37.1%); Oman (528, 16.9%); Malawi (539, 74.7%); Maldives (600, 94.4%); Suriname (607, 75.6%); Nepal (678, 92.5%); Guatemala (749, 48.6%); Saudi Arabia (753, 31.5%); Senegal (788, 85.4%); Equatorial Guinea (830, 18.9%); Mali (949, 69.7%); Rwanda (958, 96.5%); Colombia (992, 74.9%); Kenya (1096, 79.8%); El Salvador (1122, 79.7%); Gabon (1350, 43.0%); Bahamas (1762, 95.7%); Bangladesh (1783, 95.9%); Ethiopia (1791, 97.6%); Mozambique (1905, 98.3%); Andorra (1931, 55.0%); Kosovo (1983, 81.9%); Serbia (2648, 83.1%); Belize (2919, 97.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3454, 98.9%); North Macedonia (5034, 54.4%); Nigeria (7070, 65.9%); Bolivia (7537, 93.4%); Albania (8085, 98.6%); Namibia (11544, 97.5%); Peru (25578, 87.8%); Azerbaijan (34608, 24.0%); Qatar (50162, 9.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): VI (158, 35.3%); NC (170, 57.0%); VT (200, 22.8%); WY (490, 88.7%); PR (760, 91.9%); MT (814, 93.7%); SD (845, 94.6%); NE (857, 93.6%); PA (868, 67.6%); MI (1007, 92.7%); RI (1078, 96.0%); MN (1506, 67.0%); CT (2139, 86.3%); ME (2720, 68.8%); TX (2830, 54.6%); NH (2947, 12.8%); GA (7245, 98.3%); NV (12768, 93.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (21, 0.9%); NB (25, 4.1%); MB (259, 88.0%)

Japan had two days under 500 new cases for the first time since mid-July.

Ontario will be reporting today's numbers tomorrow, as their offices are closed for Labour Day.

Toronto however was open, continuing its Monday Wednesday Friday schedule, the holiday notwithstanding. One good piece of news about the city is that because it's younger people that are getting sick, our hospital beds have emptied back out to only 22 occupied with COVID-19 patients in the whole city, a number we haven't seen since late March. I think we're not likely to see the hospital numbers in our second wave that we did in our first, not only because it will be younger patients being affected more, but because the hospitals and nursing homes have better protocols worked out between them. Catching up on paperwork here earlier today, I filed an ambulance receipt for my mom's last ride back to her nursing home, on December 18th. Whenever I miss her, I remind myself to be grateful that she missed the pandemic by a couple of months.

Toronto says that we now have a palindromic 16,361 cases, which together with Ontario's weekend numbers for us mean that we had 65 cases today. That's more than we've seen in a day since July 6th, and is in keeping with media reports of large numbers of cases spreading at various types of unsafe private social gatherings and at most major shopping malls. We can still bring this under control now, but it would involve closing restaurants, bars, a lot of stores, and banning large gatherings again. Or we can wait for more people to get sick and die, and then lock down. We have 465 active cases now in Toronto, up from 371 a week ago. Our R value is somewhere in the 1.5~2.0 range, and will get worse, so now would be a good time to stock up on supplies.

Today's chart is the one that shows active cases by time in each American state and territory. Starting at the bottom with California, Florida, New York, Georgia and Illinois are the three quarters that are worse off this week than last; toward the top starting with Texas, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee and Louisiana are the ones that are doing a little better. If Ontario were a state, it would rank between D.C. and Guam. If Canada were a state, it would rank between Arizona and Delaware.

Stay safe.

2020-09-06

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (126HI→126HI), Israel (171HI→163HI), Spain (199HI→199HI), Brazil (303HI→306HI), U.S. (448HI→451HI), California (460HI→460HI), Louisiana (543HI→543HI), New York (1633HI→1625HI), France (37→33), Romania (56→54), India (58→57), Mexico (81→81), Austria (106→105), U.K. (135→121), Indonesia (156→154), Italy (157→158), Iran (160→160), Denmark (164→164), Norway (182→182), Turkey (189→188), Canada (252→243), Toronto (246→246), Ontario (404→385), Thailand (4707→3853)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, France, U.K., Canada

Worse: Romania, Indonesia

The same: India, Austria, Turkey

Better: Alabama, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Italy, Iran, Denmark, Norway, Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (71→65, 4.8%), China (152→143, 0.8%), New Zealand (132→205, 12.5%), Poland (965→247, 84.6%), Malta (180→250, 57.1%), Japan (296→313, 52.2%), Australia (237→315, 34.1%), South Africa (336→943, 35.1%), South Korea (new→2474, 68.4%), Sweden (2691→2496, 81.7%), Malaysia (new→3434, 5.8%), Germany (1407→5245, 24.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (81): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (9, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Belarus (14, 0.5%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Eritrea (14, 25.4%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 4.3%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tajikistan (14, 60.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (25, 14.3%); Taiwan (28, 4.5%); Equatorial Guinea (37, 18.9%); Barbados (47, 32.7%); Cameroon (49, 17.7%); Chad (67, 10.8%); Mauritania (72, 11.5%); Cyprus (88, 48.2%); Vietnam (88, 42.6%); Somalia (92, 46.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (100, 7.4%); Ghana (104, 12.7%); Niger (127, 3.3%); Guyana (152, 83.4%); Guinea (176, 44.8%); Iceland (176, 8.0%); Kazakhstan (183, 16.5%); Eswatini (188, 51.0%); Armenia (216, 32.4%); Monaco (217, 51.0%); Kyrgyzstan (227, 27.9%); Bhutan (235, 91.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (236, 16.8%); Egypt (269, 50.2%); Yemen (300, 36.9%); Liberia (303, 13.3%); Gambia (364, 75.2%); Afghanistan (377, 48.8%); Gabon (392, 43.0%); Oman (392, 16.5%); Sri Lanka (466, 20.2%); Malawi (491, 75.8%); Finland (537, 26.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (588, 15.1%); Bahamas (655, 94.4%); Saudi Arabia (737, 31.8%); Uzbekistan (827, 22.8%); North Macedonia (842, 54.3%); Suriname (879, 80.7%); El Salvador (937, 80.2%); Mozambique (964, 94.7%); Kenya (1095, 80.6%); Maldives (1238, 95.0%); Nigeria (1553, 65.9%); Bolivia (1643, 93.4%); Senegal (1719, 86.2%); Colombia (1906, 77.3%); Ethiopia (2181, 97.7%); Guatemala (2570, 50.6%); Albania (2666, 98.1%); Peru (2779, 88.5%); Serbia (2787, 83.3%); Nepal (3118, 97.1%); Russia (3126, 69.7%); Bangladesh (4194, 97.7%); Togo (4614, 94.1%); Qatar (5271, 9.3%); Chile (5615, 19.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (8602, 98.2%); Haiti (9203, 74.2%); Belize (26752, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): TN (57, 41.7%); VI (67, 32.2%); VT (261, 23.8%); WY (358, 88.7%); PR (539, 89.7%); MA (631, 20.0%); MT (684, 91.4%); MI (736, 89.1%); TX (763, 53.3%); RI (1297, 96.4%); NV (5028, 93.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NS (14, 0.6%); PE (14, 15.0%); NB (25, 4.1%); MB (257, 87.4%)

The United Kingdom reported 2,988 new cases today, the largest single-day number since May, and the first time it exceeded 2,000 since June. The U.K. Health Secretary blamed young people and asked for more social distancing, but said that reopened schools have nothing to do with the uptick, and that workplaces are secure. It seems likely that the number of cases is substantially underreported, as screening is running at capacity. Although the increase was reportedly due to broad increases across the country and not in any specific locations, a leaked governmental public health analysis suggested that expectations of the success of current measures were unrealistic given the possibility that "in some areas the infection is now endemic".

India set a new record for new daily cases at 90,632, and shows no signs of slowing exponential growth. By way of comparison, the highest number the Americans have had so far was about 75,000. India should easily overtake Brazil tomorrow in cumulative cases to date.

Ontario reported that there were 49 new cases in Toronto today, the most since early July. The province itself had 158 new cases, the second-highest number since late July. The distribution was nearly identical to yesterday, with 21 cases in Ottawa, 44 in Peel and 16 in York making up most of the rest of the cases. Looking week-on-week regionally, the North West has had another week free of COVID-19; the North East continues to have a few cases a week; the East has run about 20 cases a day for the last three weeks; the Central East has risen weekly from 25 to 32, 39, and now 63 new cases daily; Toronto had 25 new cases per day two weeks ago, 32 last week and now 39 (so it looks like we're running a week behind our surroundings); the South and Central West combined continue to drop 30, 20, 18.

Today's chart shows active cases as a proportion of population and its rate of change, and shows the same chart from last week for comparison.

Stay safe.

2020-09-05

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (113HI→113HI), Israel (169HI→157HI), Spain (193HI→193HI), U.S. (477HI→428HI), California (509HI→456HI), New York (1561HI→1540HI), France (32→32), Romania (52→50), India (60→57), Mexico (85→76), Austria (99→89), U.K. (150→127), Italy (158→139), Denmark (143→143), Indonesia (152→150), Iran (166→152), Norway (158→167), Turkey (190→187), Toronto (247→224), Canada (254→268), South Korea (292→318), Ontario (407→367), Thailand (3820→3461), Malaysia (2937→3575)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Mexico, Austria, U.K., Italy, Iran, Toronto

Worse: Romania, India, Indonesia, Turkey

Better: Alabama, Spain, France, Denmark, Norway, Canada, South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (71, no new data, 5.2%), New Zealand (132, no new data, 12.1%), China (152, no new data, 0.9%), Louisiana (187→158, 27.9%), Malta (180, no new data, 58.1%), Australia (237, no new data, 35.1%), Japan (296, no new data, 54.6%), South Africa (336, no new data, 36.1%), Poland (965, no new data, 95.0%), Germany (1407, no new data, 24.9%), Brazil (1732, no new data, 83.9%), Sweden (2691, no new data, 82.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (10, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burkina Faso (14, 79.4%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 25.4%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 13.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 4.3%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Belarus (27, 1.2%); Taiwan (28, 4.5%); Chad (30, 8.0%); Equatorial Guinea (38, 18.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (58, 7.1%); Cabo Verde (64, 58.6%); Cameroon (78, 17.7%); Somalia (92, 46.7%); Barbados (93, 34.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (93, 15.8%); Ghana (106, 12.7%); Vietnam (110, 49.3%); Mauritania (122, 12.5%); Niger (127, 3.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (129, 16.1%); Kazakhstan (132, 17.5%); Yemen (132, 37.4%); Guinea (165, 44.8%); Gambia (167, 73.5%); Armenia (198, 35.5%); North Macedonia (215, 53.6%); Monaco (217, 51.0%); Kyrgyzstan (229, 28.8%); Eswatini (232, 52.3%); Egypt (286, 52.6%); Bahamas (322, 90.9%); Bhutan (325, 91.8%); Peru (370, 84.6%); Oman (380, 16.5%); Gabon (392, 43.0%); Togo (467, 93.0%); Malawi (510, 77.8%); Iceland (515, 8.8%); Afghanistan (578, 51.3%); Chile (805, 19.0%); El Salvador (818, 80.8%); Sudan (848, 90.8%); Saudi Arabia (858, 31.8%); Nigeria (923, 65.5%); Latvia (937, 45.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (991, 96.2%); Mali (999, 68.4%); Bolivia (1070, 93.6%); Dominican Republic (1091, 71.2%); Kenya (1231, 81.5%); Albania (1248, 97.2%); Finland (1383, 25.0%); Colombia (1604, 77.8%); Bangladesh (1904, 97.5%); Suriname (2013, 80.0%); Russia (2066, 69.8%); Uzbekistan (2563, 23.8%); Ethiopia (3442, 97.9%); Serbia (4368, 83.8%); Papua New Guinea (5037, 89.0%); Guatemala (6033, 51.4%); Qatar (6295, 9.4%); Senegal (7311, 87.6%); Panama (67028, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): VI (32, 30.5%); MA (49, 19.1%); TN (52, 39.8%); WY (280, 86.6%); VT (454, 24.6%); MT (534, 87.8%); TX (676, 54.7%); MI (1115, 89.1%); PR (1543, 91.1%); RI (2002, 97.5%); NV (2723, 92.5%); FL (23923, 86.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (51, 1.1%); MB (373, 91.0%)

No new data on Alabama, Louisiana or Sweden's COVID-19 Wikipedia pages, from whence I get most of the region-of-interest data. Also apparently no JHU data yet for the day, because I'm posting a little early tonight.

India broke four million cumulative confirmed or probable cases today, and will overtake Brazil on Tuesday and climb into second place worldwide behind the United States.

Ontario reported 169 new cases today, and its active cases rose 63 to 1,345 according to provincial statistics, a level last seen on July 30th. Continuing recent trends, the most cases in the province were in Peel (46), followed by Toronto (42), and Ottawa (30, highest since August 20th). York was the only other region in the double digits at 19 (highest since August 1st).

Today's chart updates one from two weeks ago, showing which regions in Ontario are changing week-on-week per capita. That is, it shows what the number of new cases was in the past week per capita, and the difference compared to the previous week, with the latter being used to colour the choropleth. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-09-04

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (113HI→113HI), Israel (144HI→169HI), Spain (137HI→193HI), U.S. (495HI→477HI), California (509HI→509HI), New York (1778HI→1561HI), France (46→32), Romania (59→52), India (61→60), Mexico (85→85), Austria (106→99), Denmark (194→143), U.K. (150→150), Indonesia (157→152), Italy (184→158), Norway (158→158), Iran (166→166), Turkey (190→190), Toronto (253→247), Canada (216→254), South Korea (274→292), Ontario (435→407), Malaysia (3302→2937), Thailand (4534→3820)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Romania, Austria, Denmark, Indonesia, Italy, Toronto

The same: India

Better: Alabama, Mexico, U.K., Norway, Iran, Turkey, South Korea

Much better: Israel, Spain, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (109→71, 5.2%), New Zealand (124→132, 12.1%), China (130→152, 0.9%), Malta (83→180, 58.1%), Louisiana (154→187, 27.9%), Australia (270→237, 35.1%), Japan (418→296, 54.6%), South Africa (346→336, 36.1%), Poland (8081→965, 95.0%), Germany (1383→1407, 24.9%), Brazil (754→1732, 83.9%), Sweden (9562→2691, 82.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (10, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burkina Faso (14, 79.4%); Cambodia (14, 2.3%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 25.4%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 13.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 4.3%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Belarus (27, 1.2%); Taiwan (28, 4.5%); Chad (30, 8.0%); Equatorial Guinea (38, 18.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (58, 7.1%); Cabo Verde (64, 58.6%); Cameroon (78, 17.7%); Somalia (92, 46.7%); Barbados (93, 34.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (93, 15.8%); Ghana (106, 12.7%); Vietnam (110, 49.3%); Mauritania (122, 12.5%); Niger (127, 3.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (129, 16.1%); Kazakhstan (132, 17.5%); Yemen (132, 37.4%); Guinea (165, 44.8%); Gambia (167, 73.5%); Armenia (198, 35.5%); North Macedonia (215, 53.6%); Monaco (217, 51.0%); Kyrgyzstan (229, 28.8%); Eswatini (232, 52.3%); Egypt (286, 52.6%); Bahamas (322, 90.9%); Bhutan (325, 91.8%); Peru (370, 84.6%); Oman (380, 16.5%); Gabon (392, 43.0%); Togo (467, 93.0%); Malawi (510, 77.8%); Iceland (515, 8.8%); Afghanistan (578, 51.3%); Chile (805, 19.0%); El Salvador (818, 80.8%); Sudan (848, 90.8%); Saudi Arabia (858, 31.8%); Nigeria (923, 65.5%); Latvia (937, 45.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (991, 96.2%); Mali (999, 68.4%); Bolivia (1070, 93.6%); Dominican Republic (1091, 71.2%); Kenya (1231, 81.5%); Albania (1248, 97.2%); Finland (1383, 25.0%); Colombia (1604, 77.8%); Bangladesh (1904, 97.5%); Suriname (2013, 80.0%); Russia (2066, 69.8%); Uzbekistan (2563, 23.8%); Ethiopia (3442, 97.9%); Serbia (4368, 83.8%); Papua New Guinea (5037, 89.0%); Guatemala (6033, 51.4%); Qatar (6295, 9.4%); Senegal (7311, 87.6%); Panama (67028, 98.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (11): VI (21, 28.5%); MA (47, 18.0%); TN (49, 38.5%); WY (236, 85.6%); NH (277, 11.3%); TX (568, 55.8%); PR (998, 93.3%); NV (2645, 92.9%); RI (5658, 99.2%); ID (12699, 94.9%); DC (38398, 64.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 5.5%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (27, 1.1%); MB (261, 90.2%)

There were 72 new cases today in Peel, and 79 in Central Eastern Ontario (the area just outside Toronto), the worst it has been since the beginning of June. I am astounded that plans for reopening schools are continuing without regard to this rapidly building second wave. The situation is worse than the overall numbers for the province suggest, because so far this time, the pandemic is spreading rapidly in major cities: with 13 new cases in Ottawa and 41 in Toronto, we have 133 of the 148 cases province-wide today. If we look at the same areas exactly a month ago, they were 55 of 86 cases; a month before that 91 of 138 cases. COVID-19 is spreading quickly in densely populated areas, which will inevitably lead it to flare up in rural areas once we reach a critical mass.

Active cases in Toronto were up ten to 411, the first time we have been above 400 since July 27th.

Today's chart shows how new cases have accumulated in each of the major regions of Ontario since July 1st.

Stay safe.

2020-09-03

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (126HI→126HI), Israel (206HI→195HI), Spain (194HI→198HI), U.S. (440HI→450HI), New York (1844HI→1792HI), France (42→40), Romania (55→56), India (59→59), Austria (114→110), Indonesia (158→153), U.K. (169→154), Italy (167→167), Turkey (196→193), Norway (256→221), South Korea (200→228), Canada (275→264), Toronto (266→264), Ontario (432→426)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Austria, Indonesia, U.K., Norway, Canada

Worse: France, Turkey, Toronto

Better: Alabama, Spain, Romania, India, Italy

Much better: South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malta (80→83, 61.2%), Singapore (161→109, 6.5%), Thailand (118→111, 6.3%), New Zealand (369→124, 12.4%), China (124→130, 0.9%), Louisiana (156→154, 26.2%), Australia (188→270, 39.2%), South Africa (379→346, 36.1%), Japan (320→418, 59.1%), Mexico (492→632, 76.1%), Brazil (640→754, 81.4%), Germany (2251→1383, 25.0%), Denmark (718→1702, 31.1%), Iran (4529→2933, 86.4%), Malaysia (14→3514, 5.9%), Poland (new→8081, 98.6%), Sweden (50134→9562, 82.2%), California (18923→98603, 94.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (10, 0.0%); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (12, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Cambodia (14, 3.4%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Guinea-Bissau (14, 77.4%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 13.3%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Sierra Leone (14, 69.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (23, 9.6%); Taiwan (23, 4.2%); Equatorial Guinea (40, 19.5%); Chad (44, 9.0%); Cabo Verde (58, 53.7%); Cyprus (71, 64.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (76, 8.0%); Ecuador (85, 22.3%); Ghana (89, 14.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (94, 15.3%); Vietnam (122, 54.2%); Iceland (135, 8.7%); Niger (145, 3.7%); Yemen (153, 39.7%); Barbados (155, 38.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (166, 18.1%); Mauritania (166, 13.9%); Gambia (169, 76.8%); Belarus (176, 2.5%); Monaco (179, 50.2%); North Macedonia (193, 54.7%); Kyrgyzstan (263, 31.4%); Uruguay (272, 49.2%); Suriname (276, 79.4%); Armenia (281, 37.6%); Kazakhstan (302, 20.5%); Oman (304, 18.1%); Philippines (313, 77.3%); Gabon (325, 44.0%); Egypt (329, 56.7%); Finland (348, 22.1%); Togo (394, 93.6%); Eswatini (438, 61.4%); Peru (503, 88.0%); Malawi (504, 79.3%); Sudan (555, 92.2%); Guatemala (598, 51.2%); Switzerland (599, 29.6%); Slovakia (705, 95.0%); El Salvador (709, 82.5%); Mali (726, 71.8%); Dominican Republic (774, 72.4%); Bolivia (974, 94.0%); Papua New Guinea (983, 90.1%); Colombia (998, 78.8%); Croatia (1013, 94.1%); Nigeria (1106, 66.3%); Morocco (1204, 90.8%); Uzbekistan (1316, 25.6%); Saudi Arabia (1489, 33.4%); Haiti (1541, 73.9%); Qatar (1585, 9.4%); Bulgaria (1587, 80.9%); Guinea (1588, 53.0%); Afghanistan (1839, 53.7%); Kenya (2585, 82.8%); Serbia (2671, 84.3%); Iraq (3595, 98.0%); Central African Republic (4556, 61.2%); Bahamas (5114, 97.4%); Bangladesh (5766, 98.6%); Somalia (21323, 63.4%); Tajikistan (35203, 60.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): VI (35, 40.3%); MA (46, 17.5%); TN (51, 39.9%); MP (122, 84.6%); MS (230, 61.7%); TX (328, 55.5%); NC (329, 73.0%); WY (457, 94.0%); AR (612, 70.6%); MN (672, 68.6%); GU (1384, 96.0%); WA (1535, 95.0%); ND (1653, 98.0%); PR (2128, 96.9%); NV (2471, 93.5%); IN (3219, 84.6%); RI (8879, 99.4%); WI (252496, 88.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NB (14, 5.5%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 10.0%); SK (111, 11.2%); MB (3129, 97.6%)

The United States exceeded its 6,000,000th confirmed or probable case today. India set a new daily record with over 80,000 new confirmed/probable cases.

Norway is building rapidly up to a second wave; its 1400+ active cases are double what they were two weeks ago. Austria's 3400+ are double what they were three weeks ago. Spain's 200K+ are double what they were five weeks ago.

Overheard at the hospital nursing station this morning: "All those people out there lined up to get tested so that they can hang out with their buddies. That's not how it works! You might not test positive now, but you could be positive tonight." On the bright side, there were a lot of people getting tested, and given how many cases there are in town it seems likely that at least some of them would test positive. Certainly, when I tried to take my dad into the hospital (for an ongoing issue; he's resting back home now), staff asked/herded/escorted us in a jaywalk down the middle of the road rather than go anywhere near or downwind of the queued testees.

Israel has finally decided to take action against its second wave. Its first wave had about 8,000 active cases at its peak, and its second wave is back down to about 23,000 from over 30,000, but better late than never.

Ontario saw another 132 new cases today, almost double what we were seeing only a month ago. It doesn't have to be this way, and the sooner we dial things back a bit, the fewer people will die in this second wave, and the better the chance that we will survive it as well as we survived the first. Ottawa was up to 22 cases, the Eastern Ontario Health Unit (also a part of the Eastern region) saw a recent record (since the end of July, when I started tracking every Ontario health unit) of 5 cases, bringing the Eastern region up to the most new cases it has had in two weeks. Peel set a recent record with 45 new cases, on its fourth day of increasing numbers. Toronto had 31 new cases, a little below average for the past week, but three times what we had only three weeks ago. Thankfully, the Central and South West are continuing on their gradual decline, and the North is on its third straight day without new cases.

Today's map is a weekly update showing how long it's been since there's been a sporadic case in each Toronto neighbourhood. You can interact with it here:

Stay safe.

2020-09-02

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (126HI→126HI), Spain (194HI→194HI), Israel (220HI→206HI), U.S. (447HI→440HI), New York (1892HI→1844HI), France (42→42), Romania (56→55), India (60→59), Austria (114→114), Indonesia (163→158), Italy (166→167), Poland (162→168), U.K. (169→169), Turkey (201→196), South Korea (193→200), Norway (288→256), Toronto (299→266), Canada (279→275), Ontario (456→432)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Indonesia, Turkey, Norway, Toronto, Canada

The same: Romania, India

Better: Alabama, Spain, France, Austria, Italy, Poland, U.K., South Korea

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (215→14, 5.8%), Malta (82→80, 63.5%), Thailand (68→118, 6.4%), China (115→124, 1.0%), Louisiana (new→156, 22.5%), Singapore (140→161, 7.5%), Australia (216→188, 38.1%), Japan (406→320, 59.2%), New Zealand (new→369, 13.9%), South Africa (2555→379, 36.9%), Mexico (635→492, 73.2%), Brazil (18021→640, 80.7%), Denmark (386→718, 31.2%), Germany (new→2251, 25.1%), Iran (new→4529, 86.3%), California (2588→18923, 93.9%), Sweden (5417→50134, 83.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (87): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (11, 0.0%); Djibouti, Saint Lucia (13, 0.0%); Benin (14, 44.5%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Burundi (14, 72.5%); Cambodia (14, 9.1%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liberia (14, 14.1%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Mongolia (14, 9.1%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (25, 9.6%); Cabo Verde (48, 49.8%); Cyprus (65, 63.9%); Ecuador (70, 19.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (94, 15.8%); Vietnam (118, 56.0%); Iceland (120, 9.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (121, 8.6%); Niger (145, 3.7%); Yemen (151, 40.0%); Ghana (160, 16.8%); Eswatini (162, 59.7%); Mali (171, 69.2%); Belarus (172, 3.0%); Cote d'Ivoire (202, 19.1%); Kazakhstan (248, 20.2%); North Macedonia (267, 56.5%); Armenia (268, 38.2%); Uruguay (270, 48.8%); Montenegro (282, 37.1%); Uzbekistan (290, 23.7%); Kyrgyzstan (295, 32.7%); Oman (304, 18.1%); Papua New Guinea (306, 85.4%); Bahrain (337, 49.9%); Egypt (337, 58.7%); Switzerland (337, 28.4%); Philippines (347, 75.4%); Gambia (349, 82.0%); Luxembourg (407, 22.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (543, 65.7%); Malawi (558, 80.9%); Dominican Republic (564, 72.9%); Peru (634, 90.1%); El Salvador (720, 83.6%); Guatemala (743, 51.3%); Gabon (789, 46.6%); Morocco (804, 89.5%); Lesotho (809, 79.4%); Guinea-Bissau (822, 77.4%); Colombia (898, 79.4%); Moldova (955, 95.9%); Zimbabwe (998, 39.0%); Sudan (1029, 93.4%); Senegal (1115, 88.0%); Qatar (1244, 9.4%); Croatia (1265, 91.4%); Kenya (1580, 83.5%); Guinea (1588, 53.0%); Venezuela (1617, 68.2%); Serbia (1652, 84.5%); Saudi Arabia (1902, 33.7%); Nigeria (1932, 67.6%); Bolivia (1937, 96.0%); Iraq (2002, 97.7%); Togo (2329, 94.6%); Afghanistan (2444, 54.0%); Kuwait (2617, 48.1%); Georgia (2947, 79.9%); Somalia (3566, 63.4%); Bahamas (3876, 99.0%); Central African Republic (4061, 61.2%); Haiti (4116, 74.5%); Bulgaria (4479, 80.6%); Bangladesh (11674, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (21): VI (45, 44.1%); MA (63, 21.3%); MP (122, 84.6%); MS (211, 58.5%); NC (262, 67.9%); TX (312, 56.7%); MN (369, 64.4%); AR (417, 66.4%); NH (485, 12.5%); GU (1184, 95.6%); TN (1462, 87.3%); WY (1784, 96.0%); ND (2125, 92.3%); PR (2367, 96.6%); NV (2420, 93.8%); AK (3580, 99.1%); WI (3681, 88.1%); AZ (4356, 79.1%); DC (4767, 63.4%); RI (5356, 99.3%); ME (6229, 63.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (12, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); NB (21, 5.5%); SK (41, 9.0%)

One source reported that Singapore had had its lowest new daily count in six months, with only eight new cases. Impressive if true.

Ontario saw 133 new cases today, the largest number in more than a month, as we continue riding up the early stages of our second wave. There were no cases in the North for second consecutive day. The only new cases in the East were 12 in Ottawa. The 62 new cases in the Central East were more than we have seen there in more than a month as well, and the 43 new cases the province reported for Toronto were the most in almost two months. The 18 cases in the Central and South West were in line with a slow decrease in those areas.

Toronto's active cases have risen to 387, which is where we were on July 28th. I took a close look at today's published open data, which includes 247 new cases reported August 25-31, of which 168 were cases thought to have been acquired during that time.

I took a look at the 247 new cases in today's data dump (those reported August 25-31), narrowed down to the 143 that are actually thought to have acquired COVID-19 during that time. 61% of cases were female. The median age was 35, with quartiles at 25 and 47. 60% of transmission was through close contact, 20% in the community, 6% each through working in healthcare or living in institutions, 5% in ongoing outbreaks, and 4% while travelling. Today's chart shows where the 247 newly reported cases are across the city, not including the outbreak cases. You can see an interactive version of it here:

Stay safe.

2020-09-01

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (113HI→113HI), Spain (0→211HI), U.S. (422HI→457HI), Louisiana (509HI→509HI), New York (1903HI→1903HI), France (38→50), India (60→61), Romania (61→65), Austria (119→122), Indonesia (156→161), Iran (161→161), U.K. (164→164), Italy (164→181), Poland (170→188), Turkey (198→197), South Korea (230→230), Norway (265→249), Canada (263→268), Toronto (269→275), Germany (282→307), Ontario (429→438), New Zealand (531→605)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Norway

The same: Turkey

Better: Alabama, India, Romania, Austria, Indonesia, Iran, U.K., South Korea, Canada, Toronto, Germany

Much better: France, Italy, Poland

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Thailand (279→68, 5.9%), Malta (132→82, 67.4%), China (106→115, 1.0%), Singapore (121→140, 7.8%), Malaysia (143→215, 6.1%), Australia (231→216, 40.7%), Denmark (242→386, 31.1%), Japan (395→406, 62.4%), Mexico (new→635, 73.0%), Israel (1160→788, 58.9%), South Africa (783→2555, 41.5%), California (2194→2588, 94.1%), Sweden (1623→5417, 83.4%), Brazil (2142→18021, 86.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (86): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (12, 0.0%); Benin (14, 44.5%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Cambodia (14, 9.1%); Cameroon (14, 25.8%); Djibouti (14, 0.2%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 14.3%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 9.1%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cyprus (66, 63.7%); Ecuador (69, 17.8%); Zambia (76, 15.2%); Uruguay (108, 46.9%); Mongolia (110, 8.2%); Eswatini (121, 59.4%); Uzbekistan (135, 24.1%); Ghana (137, 16.7%); Belarus (140, 3.1%); Montenegro (153, 35.0%); Vietnam (169, 61.7%); Sao Tome and Principe (172, 9.2%); Iceland (173, 9.1%); Mali (205, 70.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (214, 20.4%); Bahrain (220, 47.8%); Niger (284, 3.7%); Gabon (300, 46.6%); Oman (312, 18.2%); Kyrgyzstan (319, 33.7%); Philippines (345, 71.8%); Egypt (368, 60.9%); Guinea (391, 53.6%); Mauritania (409, 15.5%); Equatorial Guinea (419, 38.7%); Trinidad and Tobago (515, 91.0%); Kuwait (535, 46.5%); Congo (Brazzaville) (543, 65.7%); Dominican Republic (544, 74.1%); Kazakhstan (557, 23.3%); Yemen (557, 45.0%); Georgia (571, 76.5%); Malawi (641, 82.9%); Colombia (721, 80.3%); Liberia (723, 75.2%); El Salvador (732, 84.7%); North Macedonia (778, 62.7%); Lesotho (809, 79.4%); Guinea-Bissau (822, 77.4%); Armenia (823, 42.7%); Senegal (917, 88.0%); Moldova (1127, 93.4%); Switzerland (1129, 28.4%); Kenya (1178, 84.2%); Saudi Arabia (1241, 33.4%); Qatar (1250, 9.4%); Serbia (1285, 84.6%); Guatemala (1299, 51.7%); Bulgaria (1311, 79.8%); Zimbabwe (1750, 37.6%); Morocco (1797, 90.7%); Sudan (1818, 94.7%); Venezuela (1980, 67.3%); Nigeria (2063, 68.4%); Suriname (2231, 81.2%); Sierra Leone (2367, 69.8%); Gambia (2967, 88.6%); Somalia (3566, 63.4%); Haiti (5681, 74.4%); Iraq (6001, 98.8%); Bolivia (17714, 97.7%); Peru (18167, 96.9%); Afghanistan (37003, 54.8%); Belgium (53916, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): MP (14, 84.6%); VI (189, 59.0%); MS (198, 55.4%); TX (317, 58.7%); NC (388, 64.6%); AR (422, 66.7%); WY (854, 95.7%); PR (1033, 93.5%); MN (1256, 67.9%); MI (1470, 97.0%); NV (2535, 94.0%); NH (2804, 12.3%); AZ (3675, 79.0%); TN (11574, 88.1%); ID (25860, 95.3%); GA (385391, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); PE (13, 0.0%); NB (14, 4.1%); NL (14, 0.5%); SK (47, 9.7%)

Ontario numbers were remarkably steady overall for a third day, back down to 112 new cases from yesterday's 114, matching Sunday's number. Locally, this was due to Ottawa dropping from 21 to 8, Peel rising from 16 to 28, Toronto dropping from 41 to 26, and the Central and South West rising back up from 12 to a more recently typical 33.

The CMAJ reported 142 (10 per million population) new cases in Ontario today (they have always counted differently), putting it between first-place Alberta (164, or 38/MP) and third-place Quebec (122, or 15/MP). B.C. had 58 (11/MP), Manitoba 18 (14/MP), Saskatchewan 3 (3/MP), and there were no new cases in the North or in the Atlantic provinces.

Today's chart shows my regions of interest, plotted in the traditional phase diagram showing percentage of population cumulatively confirmed vs. rate of change.

Stay safe.

2020-08-31

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (283HI→126HI), U.S. (441HI→442HI), Louisiana (443HI→522HI), New York (2056HI→1892HI), Spain (2→0), France (46→46), Romania (55→56), India (63→61), Mexico (88→87), Austria (115→113), Iran (138→147), Poland (153→155), Indonesia (170→164), Italy (169→168), U.K. (178→169), South Korea (184→193), Turkey (205→202), Germany (234→238), Canada (316→292), Toronto (319→296), Ontario (468→463), New Zealand (620→620)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, Spain, Indonesia, U.K., Canada, Toronto

Worse: India, Austria, Turkey

The same: Mexico, Italy

Better: France, Romania, Iran, Poland, South Korea, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: China (102→106, 1.1%), Singapore (126→121, 8.1%), Malta (244→132, 76.8%), Malaysia (112→143, 6.2%), Australia (444→231, 42.4%), Denmark (170→242, 31.3%), Thailand (610→279, 7.0%), Japan (345→395, 63.6%), Norway (756→549, 26.0%), South Africa (482→783, 41.7%), Israel (677→1160, 57.9%), Sweden (1529→1623, 82.4%), Brazil (new→2142, 84.2%), California (2123→2194, 94.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Grenada, Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Antigua and Barbuda (13, 0.0%); Benin (14, 44.5%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); South Sudan (14, 57.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mongolia (19, 5.5%); Fiji (25, 24.5%); Cameroon (49, 25.8%); Belarus (54, 2.5%); Ecuador (74, 17.5%); Zambia (74, 12.7%); Cambodia (94, 9.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (106, 9.2%); Uzbekistan (119, 25.7%); Eritrea (123, 24.6%); Ghana (134, 18.2%); Eswatini (146, 61.6%); Vietnam (150, 63.7%); Georgia (160, 76.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (165, 20.9%); Montenegro (185, 35.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (185, 84.9%); Mali (229, 69.9%); Iceland (235, 9.6%); Bahrain (237, 47.7%); Sri Lanka (254, 14.8%); Lesotho (258, 86.3%); Uruguay (263, 53.8%); Philippines (306, 68.0%); Kazakhstan (318, 23.1%); Malawi (333, 83.3%); Mauritania (334, 15.5%); Kyrgyzstan (338, 35.1%); Egypt (370, 62.7%); Cyprus (416, 93.5%); Equatorial Guinea (419, 38.7%); Oman (469, 18.9%); Gabon (488, 48.4%); Botswana (540, 94.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (543, 65.7%); North Macedonia (586, 64.8%); Dominican Republic (687, 76.7%); El Salvador (741, 85.9%); Kuwait (758, 47.1%); Armenia (771, 43.0%); Colombia (792, 81.5%); Guinea (810, 54.9%); Senegal (813, 87.9%); Guinea-Bissau (822, 77.4%); Guyana (847, 96.8%); Yemen (967, 45.9%); Kenya (998, 84.5%); Liberia (1032, 76.0%); Bulgaria (1040, 81.9%); Saudi Arabia (1086, 33.8%); Haiti (1091, 73.9%); Venezuela (1158, 68.7%); Serbia (1182, 84.9%); Nigeria (1183, 68.3%); Gambia (1232, 88.6%); Morocco (1601, 91.2%); Pakistan (1870, 8.4%); Qatar (2455, 9.6%); Maldives (2717, 98.7%); Somalia (3566, 63.4%); Iraq (4232, 98.9%); Russia (4458, 70.5%); Peru (12837, 97.7%); Bolivia (22825, 97.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): MS (188, 52.8%); MP (233, 83.3%); NC (276, 58.1%); TX (346, 60.8%); PA (842, 63.9%); MI (1439, 94.6%); NV (2056, 94.4%); WI (2474, 86.7%); FL (3621, 84.4%); AZ (3703, 79.3%); ID (7665, 95.2%); WY (17809, 96.4%); GA (17888, 98.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 15.0%); NB (15, 5.5%); SK (32, 10.6%)

Spain will reach the 1% cumulative case count mark tomorrow, and is close enough that they may have done so already, depending on how their population has changed during the pandemic. Their new case numbers are up 9% from last week, and their active cases are over 180,000, almost twice their first peak.

Today's chart shows all European countries with at least 10,000 active cases. The two that are improving (Sweden and Belgium) are at the top; the rest are at the bottom, starting with the one with the largest number of active cases, Spain.

Toronto saw 119 new cases over the three days of the weekend, raising its official active case count from 350 to 371. Sustained levels of about 40 new cases a day is similar to where we were in mid-July. One big difference though is that our case fatality rate is running around 12% now compared to 4% back then, meaning that there are a lot more silent cases out in the community that aren't in the official numbers now than there were before. We likely have about 4,000 active cases in total, which is where we were at the beginning of July, and the number is rapidly rising.

We did finally see some public warnings about what is going to happen in the next few months, pointing out that the situation this week has been bad, but that it will get much worse before it gets better, even with better public compliance with safety recommendations. I had to go shopping in two stores today. At the Costco in Thorncliffe Park, there was no longer any control of customers coming into the store, there were too many customers in the store to maintain safe distances, and the area in front of the cashiers was overcrowded. Everyone was wearing masks though, and properly. At the Chinese supermarket on Gerrard, everyone was wearing masks properly and distancing themselves except for the usual one old white man who was yelling at everyone and not understanding why we were all trying to get as far away from him as possible. I think I'm going to have to be even more careful about shopping in off-peak times, and perhaps go back to ordering more things online.

Overall numbers in Ontario were roughly stable, up 2 new cases to 114. That's six more cases than yesterday in Toronto, five more in Ottawa, two fewer in the Central East, and about half yesterday's count in the South and Central West.

Stay safe.

2020-08-30

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (283HI→283HI), Brazil (303HI→313HI), U.S. (435HI→441HI), Louisiana (443HI→443HI), New York (2056HI→2056HI), Spain (2→2), France (46→46), Romania (57→55), India (64→63), Mexico (88→88), Austria (120→115), Iran (138→138), Poland (148→153), Italy (173→169), Indonesia (176→170), U.K. (195→178), South Korea (174→184), Turkey (210→205), Germany (231→234), Canada (316→316), Toronto (332→319), Ontario (466→468), New Zealand (683→620)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Austria, Italy, Indonesia, U.K., Turkey, Toronto

Worse: Romania

The same: India

Better: Alabama, Brazil, Spain, France, Mexico, Iran, Poland, South Korea, Germany, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: China (95→102, 1.1%), Malaysia (116→112, 5.9%), Singapore (99→126, 8.6%), Denmark (151→170, 31.7%), Malta (332→244, 84.8%), Japan (374→345, 65.0%), Australia (274→444, 44.8%), South Africa (392→482, 41.4%), Thailand (610, no new data, 7.6%), Israel (462→677, 58.3%), Norway (2685→756, 25.2%), Sweden (1759→1529, 82.5%), California (1426→2123, 94.2%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (1, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Brunei (14, 1.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (14, 69.5%); Djibouti (14, 0.5%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Kosovo (14, 83.4%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 3.5%); Seychelles (14, 10.1%); South Sudan (14, 57.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Mongolia (16, 5.5%); Fiji (25, 24.5%); Cameroon (49, 25.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (52, 9.9%); Belarus (69, 2.9%); Taiwan (76, 7.2%); Trinidad and Tobago (86, 62.8%); Cambodia (94, 9.1%); Uzbekistan (104, 26.3%); Barbados (118, 42.3%); Eritrea (123, 24.6%); Lesotho (123, 79.1%); Ghana (133, 20.0%); Eswatini (161, 65.8%); Vietnam (173, 66.5%); Botswana (182, 85.4%); Uruguay (182, 53.5%); Zambia (204, 23.5%); Kazakhstan (221, 23.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (225, 21.8%); Guinea (241, 54.0%); North Macedonia (294, 65.2%); Montenegro (300, 39.0%); Kyrgyzstan (313, 36.0%); Gabon (316, 48.4%); Sri Lanka (344, 14.1%); Egypt (356, 64.5%); Bahrain (367, 51.1%); Mauritania (371, 16.3%); Mali (396, 74.6%); Equatorial Guinea (414, 38.7%); Cyprus (426, 93.8%); Finland (459, 23.9%); Malawi (461, 84.6%); Dominican Republic (480, 76.5%); Armenia (484, 42.7%); Georgia (484, 82.9%); Afghanistan (552, 54.9%); Kenya (574, 84.1%); Morocco (661, 94.0%); El Salvador (744, 87.1%); Iceland (810, 10.1%); Venezuela (828, 68.7%); Colombia (853, 82.8%); Nigeria (1092, 68.7%); Gambia (1108, 92.6%); Senegal (1140, 89.2%); Yemen (1145, 46.6%); Haiti (1226, 75.6%); Pakistan (1227, 8.4%); Liberia (1236, 76.0%); Serbia (1362, 85.6%); Russia (1421, 69.6%); Bulgaria (1437, 82.7%); Oman (1517, 20.4%); Sierra Leone (1896, 69.8%); Saudi Arabia (1930, 34.3%); Benin (2435, 44.5%); Qatar (3973, 9.6%); Somalia (4283, 63.4%); Netherlands (5874, 99.3%); Iraq (43287, 99.3%); Bolivia (218294, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): TX (524, 64.3%); PA (850, 63.6%); DE (909, 95.3%); ID (2134, 94.7%); MI (2256, 93.0%); FL (2474, 84.4%); UT (2656, 59.5%); AZ (3051, 79.5%); RI (3999, 97.9%); NV (4925, 95.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (1, 0.0%); NB (14, 5.5%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 1.1%); PE (14, 15.0%); SK (50, 13.1%)

Here's how things look across Canada. Tl;dr: poorly wherever there are a lot of people, and not so badly wherever there aren't.

British Columbia is doing very poorly: its second wave now has 982 active cases, well above its first peak of 717 four months ago, rising this past week at 2.5% daily.

Alberta continues its four-week plateau between 1,000 and 1,200 active cases, although it's spent the last ten days in the upper half of that range so it may be getting ready to drift further up.

Saskatchewan has brought its third wave under control, its active cases down to 42 today from its most recent peak of 321.

Manitoba's second wave has more than doubled it second first wave, with 462 active cases today, compared to the last wave maximum 193.

Ontario continues a very slow build-up to its second wave, with a week's worth of consecutive increases bringing us to 2,940 active cases from 2,736. The first wave maximum was 6,548, so we're not yet halfway back, but school hasn't reopened yet in most areas. Note that these are CMAJ numbers, which are significantly larger than the official provincial numbers; those have risen from 1,010 to 1,181 during that time.

Quebec, unless they change their statistical methodology again, is continuing an 11-day plateau in the 1,200s. Plateaux are bad things; almost as bad as new waves. They mean that transmission is not being effectively controlled, and new cases are steadily arising.

All three Maritime provinces have seen at least several days of active cases in the single digits. Newfoundland and Labrador got down to no active cases a few days ago, but has one now.

The North has no active cases; Nunavut continues to be the only region not to have seen any cases since the pandemic began.

This week's chart updates one from a couple of weeks ago, and shows how active cases compare in each continent. The steep rise at the end of the Asia curve is due to India's continuing exponential growth.

Stay safe.

2020-08-29

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (317HI→283HI), U.S. (425HI→435HI), New York (1762HI→2056HI), Spain (3→2), France (54→46), Romania (57→57), India (65→64), Mexico (87→88), Austria (113→120), Iran (136→138), Poland (144→148), Italy (193→173), South Korea (172→174), Indonesia (195→176), U.K. (205→195), Turkey (222→210), Germany (222→231), Canada (324→316), Toronto (355→332), Norway (354→380), Ontario (484→466), New Zealand (655→683)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Alabama, France, Italy, Indonesia, U.K., Turkey, Canada, Toronto

The same: Spain, India

Better: Romania, Mexico, Austria, Iran, Poland, South Korea, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (208→208, 29.1%), China (115→109, 1.2%), Singapore (75→82, 9.1%), Malaysia (1232→235, 5.8%), Denmark (174→198, 32.5%), Australia (211→234, 46.0%), Malta (811→561, 89.3%), Japan (509→450, 67.0%), South Africa (403→376, 41.7%), Israel (707→756, 57.2%), Thailand (new→2118, 7.6%), California (2617→1572, 94.2%), Sweden (5946→3090, 83.1%), Brazil (2029→1433, 88.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (2, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Djibouti (14, 0.7%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 19.6%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tajikistan (14, 60.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (25, 24.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (49, 9.9%); Cambodia (50, 9.1%); Taiwan (58, 6.8%); Cameroon (59, 25.8%); Barbados (71, 34.6%); Belarus (97, 3.6%); Uzbekistan (106, 26.7%); Uruguay (117, 53.1%); Ghana (122, 20.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (126, 22.3%); Latvia (138, 41.5%); Zambia (155, 24.6%); Guinea (164, 54.0%); Botswana (182, 85.4%); Kazakhstan (182, 23.6%); Vietnam (205, 69.3%); Georgia (240, 80.5%); Lesotho (263, 82.1%); Pakistan (274, 8.5%); Kyrgyzstan (289, 36.9%); North Macedonia (304, 64.1%); Eswatini (308, 72.0%); Mauritania (310, 16.3%); Gabon (316, 48.4%); Armenia (345, 43.8%); Egypt (356, 66.5%); Equatorial Guinea (414, 38.7%); Malawi (459, 85.7%); Afghanistan (492, 54.9%); Nigeria (568, 69.0%); Dominican Republic (591, 78.7%); Congo (Brazzaville) (613, 69.5%); Kenya (659, 85.7%); Gambia (661, 89.8%); West Bank and Gaza (676, 93.9%); Cyprus (710, 95.4%); El Salvador (729, 88.2%); Montenegro (749, 41.2%); Chile (816, 18.5%); Oman (835, 20.4%); Venezuela (896, 69.9%); Colombia (941, 83.9%); Haiti (1037, 75.1%); Sierra Leone (1073, 70.6%); Senegal (1111, 90.8%); Russia (1238, 70.0%); Morocco (1288, 94.2%); Serbia (1571, 86.6%); Bulgaria (1629, 81.3%); Kosovo (1761, 83.4%); Bahrain (1895, 55.2%); Benin (2435, 44.5%); Saudi Arabia (2548, 34.4%); Peru (2591, 97.6%); Sri Lanka (3034, 14.3%); Bolivia (3921, 98.3%); Maldives (4405, 97.4%); Mozambique (4892, 95.7%); Mali (5203, 81.1%); Suriname (8007, 80.0%); Liberia (9457, 78.0%); Belgium (116422, 98.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (16): VI (283, 72.2%); TX (691, 66.2%); PA (803, 63.1%); MI (1147, 88.8%); DE (1391, 96.2%); FL (1513, 84.5%); UT (1623, 59.0%); ID (1848, 94.2%); AZ (2886, 79.9%); MA (3456, 39.3%); NV (3708, 95.5%); OR (11439, 99.3%); NJ (13297, 80.5%); WY (18037, 97.7%); WA (83102, 93.8%); GA (142886, 98.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (2, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 15.0%); NB (19, 8.2%); SK (25, 13.4%)

Starting today, I'm using seven-day (linear) smoothing instead of four-day smoothing, to help reduce day-of-week fluctuations in the days-to-N% numbers. The days-to-eradication have had the interval on which the rate is calculated extended, but are still susceptible to daily fluctuations and I should think more about whether and how to address that.

Active cases in Ontario leapt upward by 45 today to 1,148, the largest single-day increase since July 23rd. Cases are rising significantly in the Toronto area and Ottawa, but dropping quickly in the agricultural West. The North is occasionally seeing a case; today, there was one in Temiskaming; if you add them up though, they saw 7 this week across the whole of the North, 3 the week before, and 1 the week before that. Eastern Ontario is up from 76 two weeks ago to 119 and now 143, with most of it in Ottawa. Central East is up from 169 to 221 and now 283, of which 60% is Peel and 20% is York. Toronto is up 86 to 167 and now 208, including 41 today, the most since July 16th. The South and Central West are both down, from 266 to 212 and now 155.

I've heard two interrelated statistics that caused me some concern today, amid the growing public messaging trying to lull us into a false sense of security about the safety of sending our kids back to school even as our second wave is building up. They were that if a family member has COVID-19, you have about a 10% chance of catching it from them, but if someone riding your bus or subway car is sick, it's only a 1% chance. The concern that I have is that I am as certain as I can be that no one in my family has COVID-19 (no new cases in the neighbourhood in almost three months, and we are still all extremely cautious about transmission and going beyond government recommendations, so let's say I'm 95% sure), while I suspect that people who take public transit are infected in slightly higher numbers than average. Let's say that there are about 2,000 active cases in Toronto, including the ones that aren't in the official list. That's 1 in 1,500 of our three million population, and I'm guessing maybe 1 in 1,000 public transit riders. If my kid takes three public transit vehicles during rush hour twice every weekday for two weeks, and each subway car is at 1/4 capacity because ridership is down, that's 60 passengers * 30 rides * (1/1000 cases per passenger) = 1.8 exposures per fortnight, and a 1.8% chance of contracting COVID-19. If he stays at home, it's 3 family members * (1/1500 cases per population) * (1/20 chance that I wasn't as careful as I thought I was being) * (10% transmission) = 0.001% or 1 chance in 100,000 of contracting COVID-19.

And that's just getting to school and back. I've watched my aunts' nursing home, which is run by the City of Toronto by staff who are sticklers for regulations, go through three outbreaks as a result of staff contracting COVID-19 outside the nursing home, bringing it in with them, and being missed by screening. I am sure that my sons' high schools will be equally careful, but equally successful.

Ultimately though, I am grateful that we haven't been affected more directly by the pandemic, that we have the option of keeping our kids home from school to work alongside us, and appreciate the efforts of all those in the school system who are trying to do their best with limited resources.

Today's chart shows all the countries of the world, plotting their current estimated active cases against the rate of change. If the country is toward the right (like the United States at 1 in 172 infected and stable), a large portion of its population is actively infected. If it is above the horizontal 0% line (like Spain at 1 in 257 infected rising at 3%), its active cases are rising. If it is below that line (like South Africa at 1 in 819 decreasing at 3%), its active cases are decreasing.

Stay safe.

2020-08-28

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (361HI→361HI), U.S. (476HI→476HI), New York (2079HI→2079HI), Spain (3→3), France (57→57), Romania (58→58), India (68→68), Mexico (92→92), Austria (114→114), Iran (134→134), Poland (153→153), South Korea (183→183), Italy (189→189), Germany (195→195), Turkey (211→211), U.K. (214→214), Canada (283→283), Norway (330→330), Toronto (364→364), Ontario (517→517), New Zealand (565→565)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Better: Alabama, Spain, France, Romania, India, Mexico, Austria, Iran, Poland, South Korea, Italy, Germany, Turkey, U.K., Canada, Norway, Toronto

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (73→74, 9.8%), Louisiana (91→94, 29.1%), China (136→111, 1.3%), Denmark (125→148, 33.7%), South Africa (307→229, 42.2%), Australia (207→264, 48.0%), Japan (437→393, 68.9%), Malaysia (new→704, 6.8%), Indonesia (919→814, 91.5%), Brazil (799→1261, 86.9%), California (1357→1389, 96.0%), Malta (9565→1730, 94.0%), Israel (661→1805, 62.2%), Thailand (793→2512, 7.9%), Sweden (new→3638, 84.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (3, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Djibouti (14, 0.7%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Niger (14, 3.9%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (25, 24.5%); Zambia (47, 21.4%); Cambodia (50, 9.1%); Liechtenstein (50, 17.4%); Sao Tome and Principe (50, 10.2%); Taiwan (58, 6.8%); Cameroon (59, 25.8%); Barbados (71, 34.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (91, 23.6%); Latvia (105, 39.4%); Ghana (123, 20.9%); Uruguay (132, 57.8%); Guinea (143, 57.8%); Uzbekistan (156, 30.9%); Lesotho (159, 82.1%); Kazakhstan (181, 25.0%); Gabon (185, 51.7%); Belarus (204, 3.8%); Bahamas (215, 86.9%); Mauritania (216, 16.5%); Burundi (228, 70.8%); Georgia (257, 79.9%); Pakistan (268, 8.4%); Kyrgyzstan (292, 37.8%); Gambia (294, 89.6%); Vietnam (298, 71.8%); Madagascar (306, 19.9%); Botswana (364, 85.4%); Venezuela (392, 68.6%); Armenia (397, 44.6%); Egypt (401, 68.3%); Afghanistan (414, 54.9%); North Macedonia (431, 65.5%); West Bank and Gaza (509, 87.4%); Somalia (515, 63.9%); Saudi Arabia (519, 34.6%); Cuba (529, 61.1%); Malawi (564, 87.2%); Dominican Republic (629, 80.3%); Morocco (635, 92.8%); Slovenia (647, 60.2%); Montenegro (658, 42.3%); Nigeria (685, 69.8%); El Salvador (686, 89.3%); Kenya (687, 87.1%); Senegal (817, 91.5%); Sierra Leone (880, 70.6%); Suriname (931, 82.2%); Luxembourg (1075, 29.7%); Bulgaria (1172, 82.0%); Chile (1206, 18.2%); Iceland (1236, 10.3%); Mali (1298, 80.4%); Cabo Verde (1385, 89.5%); Haiti (1389, 74.8%); Serbia (1604, 87.2%); Mozambique (1741, 98.2%); Kosovo (1761, 83.4%); Colombia (1835, 86.1%); Bolivia (2155, 97.9%); Russia (2433, 70.6%); Benin (2435, 44.5%); Eswatini (2968, 76.3%); Congo (Kinshasa) (3677, 19.3%); Oman (6459, 20.4%); Finland (6669, 22.5%); Qatar (9494, 9.7%); Cyprus (10769, 94.6%); Tajikistan (17557, 59.9%); Equatorial Guinea (32040, 41.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): VI (85, 66.8%); MS (217, 68.0%); NH (238, 12.4%); ME (257, 58.4%); MP (315, 84.6%); IN (421, 80.6%); DE (474, 92.0%); OK (727, 94.8%); TX (738, 68.4%); WA (1086, 92.4%); UT (1300, 58.4%); TN (1386, 88.4%); FL (1496, 85.2%); PR (1505, 97.3%); ID (2241, 95.4%); MA (2662, 38.2%); AZ (2951, 80.0%); OH (3030, 70.9%); NV (4132, 95.6%); NJ (6731, 80.3%); GA (8332, 98.1%); AR (15754, 72.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (3, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); PE (14, 15.0%); SK (23, 13.7%); NS (27, 1.1%); NB (42, 9.6%)

The following regions of interest saw the most new cases in more than a month today: Italy, U.K., Turkey, India, and Indonesia.

Ontario saw an increase of 33 active cases, with numbers increasing similarly to yesterday, and with generally similar regional numbers across the province.

Toronto saw 60 new cases in two days, and 196 in the past seven days. Two weeks ago, the week of the Brass Rail strip club incident, saw our lowest weekly total of 82 cases. Active cases rose from 298 to 350 in the last two days, from a post-peak low of 252. We are well on our way to an early second wave.

There's been a lot of talk locally about how young people are to blame again. The per capita rates of new infections have risen significantly in the last three weeks in the 20-39 age range (where they are highest), but also in the 60-79 range (where they are about half as high, but increasing as quickly).

Today's chart shows the seven-day smoothed ages of newly reported cases in Toronto, illustrating these effects.

Stay safe.

2020-08-27

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (361HI→361HI), U.S. (462HI→476HI), New York (2287HI→2079HI), Spain (3→3), France (70→57), Romania (66→58), India (70→68), Sweden (68→68), Austria (131→114), Iran (139→134), Poland (170→153), South Korea (186→183), Italy (197→189), Germany (230→195), Turkey (221→211), U.K. (214→214), Canada (309→283), Norway (321→330), Ontario (521→517), New Zealand (939→565), Malaysia (3862→4530)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Romania, Austria, Iran, Poland, Italy, Germany, Turkey, Canada

Worse: India, South Korea

Better: Alabama, Spain, Sweden, U.K., Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (69→73, 10.4%), Louisiana (92→91, 27.8%), Denmark (265→125, 35.6%), China (122→136, 1.4%), Australia (168→207, 49.6%), South Africa (367→307, 44.3%), Japan (566→437, 70.4%), Mexico (469→573, 74.3%), Israel (2734→661, 60.1%), Thailand (new→793, 7.5%), Brazil (706→799, 86.4%), Indonesia (984→919, 92.9%), California (1594→1357, 96.2%), Malta (1212→9565, 95.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (85): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (4, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Djibouti (14, 1.1%); Fiji (14, 32.7%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Mongolia (14, 9.1%); Niger (14, 3.9%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 4.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Liechtenstein (30, 15.2%); Comoros (51, 10.6%); Barbados (53, 36.5%); Taiwan (58, 6.8%); Sao Tome and Principe (62, 10.8%); Zambia (64, 17.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (97, 25.3%); Cambodia (110, 10.2%); Ecuador (110, 29.0%); Guinea (122, 56.9%); Uruguay (124, 58.7%); Kazakhstan (135, 26.1%); Suriname (167, 78.8%); Gabon (185, 51.7%); Mauritania (194, 16.8%); West Bank and Gaza (216, 83.9%); Burundi (225, 70.0%); Belarus (229, 4.2%); Pakistan (234, 8.6%); Ghana (241, 22.9%); Venezuela (245, 71.0%); Kyrgyzstan (288, 39.1%); Uzbekistan (292, 34.3%); Vietnam (309, 75.7%); Latvia (316, 44.8%); Eswatini (325, 75.8%); Yemen (325, 47.1%); Afghanistan (354, 54.8%); Senegal (424, 91.9%); Saudi Arabia (457, 35.1%); Somalia (515, 63.9%); Egypt (545, 70.3%); Bahamas (546, 90.5%); Armenia (556, 45.1%); Montenegro (605, 41.9%); Mali (616, 78.8%); Kenya (620, 88.0%); El Salvador (678, 90.5%); Kosovo (751, 83.4%); Dominican Republic (775, 81.7%); Colombia (789, 86.8%); Haiti (823, 76.2%); Zimbabwe (837, 37.5%); Philippines (885, 79.1%); Morocco (967, 93.5%); Cuba (1019, 59.8%); Bahrain (1041, 55.1%); Sierra Leone (1056, 69.6%); Nigeria (1169, 70.7%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1420, 95.5%); Serbia (1563, 87.8%); Qatar (2057, 9.7%); Lesotho (2067, 95.7%); Bolivia (2206, 97.9%); Benin (2435, 44.5%); Finland (2569, 21.7%); Peru (2573, 98.0%); Gambia (2700, 91.0%); Luxembourg (3834, 29.7%); Tajikistan (5012, 59.7%); Liberia (6309, 78.0%); North Macedonia (7002, 68.7%); Chile (7911, 18.2%); Belgium (9355, 99.5%); Malawi (15770, 91.9%); Oman (15887, 20.5%); Cabo Verde (26286, 86.3%); Equatorial Guinea (32040, 41.6%); Russia (67090, 71.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (29): VI (76, 72.5%); NH (198, 11.9%); MS (205, 65.6%); NC (330, 67.7%); MP (333, 88.5%); ME (350, 60.9%); WA (624, 92.0%); OK (677, 93.3%); AR (690, 70.7%); TX (726, 69.9%); WV (734, 83.1%); TN (748, 89.1%); PA (784, 67.2%); WY (863, 96.7%); DE (883, 95.3%); UT (1165, 58.9%); FL (1489, 85.6%); PR (2088, 96.6%); OH (2329, 70.1%); NM (3085, 91.9%); AZ (3087, 80.3%); ID (4073, 95.7%); MO (4484, 99.0%); NV (5117, 96.4%); NJ (9490, 80.4%); VA (10620, 97.9%); MA (15758, 37.0%); IN (43426, 81.7%); MD (45311, 99.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (4, 0.0%); NL (7, 0.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (27, 1.1%); SK (33, 18.1%); NB (42, 9.6%)

South Korea's active cases have risen to 3,932 with 441 new cases today. Their second wave has not yet reached the proportions of their first wave, but two weeks ago they had only 648 active cases, and that number has risen steadily day by day.

India's active cases have risen less steadily up to their current 725,991, and the country is still setting records weekly for new daily cases.

Indonesia and Romania also set new national records for new cases today.

Ontario's active cases rebounded back by 50 up to a recent high of 1,080 cases, after yesterday's unusually low new cases returned to a more typical recent range, and yesterday's unusually high recoveries dropped back down to normal levels. The Northwestern Health Unit saw two new cases in a day for the first time in several weeks; Toronto climbed from 23 to 36 cases (the most it's seen in more than a month), Windsor-Essex jumped from the two or three recent daily cases to 12; and Halton saw 6, also the most in over a month. The rest of the province was stable. A single-day naive estimate for the province's R value would be > 1.5.

I've been thinking that we would be okay-ish in Canada until school starts next month, but there are signs all over of pandemic fatigue. Although you see almost everyone wearing masks and distancing in public, and I felt reasonably safe going to the dentist today, the number of cases suggests that people are gathering in unsafe groups.

Today's chart is a new one, and shows what the median age of sporadic cases has been this month in each Toronto neighbourhood. Here is a link to the interactive version.

Stay safe.

2020-08-26

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.S. (421HI→462HI), New York (2197HI→2287HI), Spain (5→3), Romania (68→66), Sweden (65→68), France (70→70), India (68→70), Austria (134→131), Iran (139→139), Poland (158→170), South Korea (182→186), Italy (212→197), U.K. (201→214), Turkey (221→221), Germany (260→230), Canada (399→309), Norway (330→321), Toronto (369→364), Ontario (496→521), New Zealand (939→939), Malaysia (5046→3862), Thailand (6014→5551)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Italy, Germany, Canada, Norway, Toronto

Worse: Romania, Austria

Better: Sweden, France, India, Iran, Poland, South Korea, U.K., Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (65→69, 11.1%), Louisiana (new→92, 26.4%), China (131→122, 1.5%), Australia (175→168, 48.6%), Denmark (223→265, 38.0%), South Africa (494→367, 45.7%), Mexico (337→469, 71.2%), Japan (703→566, 73.0%), Brazil (2125→706, 87.1%), Indonesia (691→984, 93.7%), Malta (1047→1212, 95.3%), California (3020→1594, 96.6%), Israel (440→2734, 62.1%), Alabama (new→23829, 96.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (5, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 55.1%); Niger (14, 3.9%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 4.8%); Taiwan (14, 8.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (15, 32.7%); Djibouti (23, 1.7%); Liechtenstein (30, 15.2%); Zambia (40, 27.0%); Comoros (51, 10.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (74, 25.1%); Ecuador (78, 24.5%); Cambodia (110, 10.2%); Uruguay (117, 60.7%); Kazakhstan (123, 27.7%); Belarus (136, 4.4%); Equatorial Guinea (137, 41.6%); Latvia (147, 40.6%); Pakistan (147, 8.6%); Guinea (172, 61.2%); Venezuela (211, 72.0%); Gabon (233, 53.5%); Mauritania (234, 17.5%); Yemen (245, 47.6%); Vietnam (280, 77.3%); Suriname (293, 80.8%); Burundi (354, 70.0%); West Bank and Gaza (360, 88.0%); Kyrgyzstan (370, 40.5%); Uzbekistan (384, 36.5%); Barbados (399, 48.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (403, 13.5%); Guinea-Bissau (406, 73.1%); Saudi Arabia (411, 35.1%); Iceland (423, 10.4%); Eswatini (500, 79.6%); Bahamas (560, 93.7%); Somalia (566, 63.9%); Armenia (635, 46.1%); El Salvador (717, 91.8%); Montenegro (723, 43.0%); Kosovo (751, 83.4%); Kenya (752, 90.1%); Senegal (769, 92.0%); Nigeria (822, 71.3%); Madagascar (835, 22.2%); Egypt (920, 72.7%); Philippines (935, 74.3%); Colombia (978, 87.9%); Ghana (1012, 25.4%); Bahrain (1181, 56.2%); Dominican Republic (1219, 83.8%); Qatar (1225, 9.7%); Afghanistan (1249, 58.8%); Cabo Verde (1360, 84.2%); Luxembourg (1561, 26.8%); Serbia (1675, 88.1%); Mali (1715, 80.0%); Liberia (1893, 77.7%); South Sudan (2897, 57.5%); Haiti (3140, 77.7%); Bolivia (3635, 98.4%); Zimbabwe (4699, 37.4%); Peru (6445, 94.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (7603, 95.2%); Belgium (9921, 99.1%); Tajikistan (17522, 59.8%); Malawi (19150, 90.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (30): VI (77, 72.9%); NH (148, 11.8%); MS (201, 63.2%); NC (251, 61.3%); MP (333, 88.5%); ME (410, 61.5%); AR (558, 71.4%); MN (559, 56.9%); WA (592, 92.0%); PR (647, 93.9%); TX (693, 70.6%); PA (791, 66.7%); WI (1121, 87.1%); OH (1185, 70.1%); UT (1276, 60.4%); TN (1415, 88.8%); FL (1441, 86.2%); NE (1442, 94.9%); MA (1492, 36.1%); OK (1678, 94.2%); SD (1813, 96.4%); WY (2218, 95.8%); NV (2673, 96.0%); AZ (2874, 80.8%); ID (3060, 96.5%); GA (3770, 97.6%); NM (4263, 91.1%); MD (10350, 99.0%); MO (23649, 97.3%); NJ (38003, 80.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); YT (5, 0.0%); NL (8, 0.0%); NB (14, 11.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); SK (29, 18.7%); NS (51, 1.1%); QC (5021, 6.4%)

We had our first double-digit's worth of new cases (88) in the province of Ontario today in six days, which with a randomly high 115 recoveries gave us our first active case decline in as many days, down 29 to 1030. No cases in the North, the East was up from 18 to 23 (but Ottawa stayed at 16), the Southwest was up from 7 to 8, and all other regions saw significant declines. I think it's a little premature to think of this as anything other than a little random good luck, but it's nice not to have to report on a lengthened streak of bad news.

Toronto's active cases were up 5 to 298 over two days, the result of 58 new cases, 51 recoveries and 2 deaths.

Today's graphic shows how many cases there have been in each Toronto neighbourhood over the past week. The Facebook version shows an animation of the past couple of months of the same graphic, and there's an interactive version below.

Stay safe.

2020-08-25

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Malaysia (3856→-264HI), Alabama (361HI→361HI), U.S. (397HI→421HI), Louisiana (452HI→452HI), New York (1565HI→2197HI), Spain (5→5), Sweden (60→65), India (66→68), Romania (62→68), France (53→70), Austria (118→134), Iran (140→139), Poland (150→158), South Korea (182→182), U.K. (201→201), Italy (208→212), Turkey (234→221), Germany (245→260), Norway (330→330), Canada (311→399), Ontario (462→496), New Zealand (899→939), Thailand (9015→6014)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Malaysia, Turkey

The same: Iran

Better: Alabama, Spain, India, Poland, South Korea, U.K., Italy, Germany, Norway

Much better: Sweden, Romania, France, Austria, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (86→65, 12.4%), China (131→131, 1.6%), Australia (74→175, 52.5%), Denmark (281→223, 40.0%), Mexico (new→337, 68.8%), Israel (558→440, 62.7%), South Africa (2262→494, 47.1%), Indonesia (3046→691, 92.4%), Japan (853→703, 74.6%), Malta (2151→1047, 97.3%), Brazil (82546→2125, 88.8%), California (153892→3020, 97.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (6, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cameroon (14, 43.4%); Comoros (14, 13.5%); Dominica (14, 14.3%); Eritrea (14, 23.2%); Iceland (14, 10.7%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 1.8%); Seychelles (14, 6.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (15, 32.7%); Cambodia (17, 11.4%); Mongolia (23, 8.2%); Djibouti (27, 2.1%); Zambia (74, 29.5%); Ecuador (77, 22.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (90, 28.7%); Barbados (91, 42.3%); Kazakhstan (104, 29.2%); Liechtenstein (110, 19.6%); Belarus (118, 4.8%); Bhutan (122, 86.7%); Equatorial Guinea (155, 41.6%); Madagascar (168, 21.7%); Mauritania (184, 17.7%); Uruguay (185, 64.7%); Gabon (189, 53.5%); Venezuela (193, 73.0%); Vietnam (206, 78.8%); Suriname (226, 80.3%); Yemen (248, 46.7%); Pakistan (249, 9.8%); Uzbekistan (258, 36.8%); Zimbabwe (296, 33.8%); Montenegro (311, 42.9%); Guinea (345, 64.8%); Saudi Arabia (350, 35.0%); Guatemala (357, 45.8%); Luxembourg (359, 25.2%); Kosovo (384, 85.1%); Eswatini (407, 79.6%); Bahrain (432, 56.3%); Cuba (439, 64.4%); Somalia (512, 63.5%); Sri Lanka (519, 14.4%); Afghanistan (685, 59.4%); Kenya (740, 91.1%); Qatar (789, 9.6%); El Salvador (797, 93.1%); Colombia (915, 88.5%); Ghana (931, 26.3%); Dominican Republic (986, 84.7%); Lesotho (1145, 90.8%); Guinea-Bissau (1170, 76.5%); Gambia (1328, 94.3%); Senegal (1485, 93.8%); Philippines (1539, 71.2%); Liberia (1592, 78.2%); Burundi (1732, 70.0%); Serbia (1968, 88.7%); Central African Republic (2384, 61.0%); Armenia (2633, 48.8%); Egypt (2846, 75.0%); Kuwait (2940, 47.5%); Kyrgyzstan (2958, 41.9%); South Sudan (3753, 57.3%); Haiti (3783, 77.6%); Nigeria (4303, 74.1%); Bulgaria (9246, 83.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (17495, 94.2%); Belgium (29134, 98.9%); Malawi (252593, 92.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (26): VI (151, 78.6%); MP (170, 88.5%); MS (194, 59.6%); NC (270, 57.5%); NH (337, 12.8%); AR (382, 70.4%); TX (611, 71.0%); MN (760, 58.4%); NE (835, 93.6%); PA (844, 66.4%); UT (875, 60.4%); OH (1140, 70.3%); WI (1218, 86.8%); ID (1404, 96.2%); MI (1571, 96.2%); FL (1644, 87.5%); WV (1666, 86.1%); TN (1892, 88.3%); ME (2481, 63.4%); GA (3050, 98.1%); PR (3294, 97.5%); NV (3866, 96.6%); AZ (6942, 81.2%); CO (7827, 96.3%); MD (11009, 98.9%); WA (15558, 97.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); YT (6, 0.0%); NL (9, 0.0%); PE (14, 15.0%); NS (37, 0.9%); SK (50, 27.4%); QC (468, 6.0%); AB (3520, 36.3%)

As most of my regions of interest have settled into fairly predictable states, I will be switching this week from the 4-day averaging that I initially chose as a reasonable compromise between noise and responsiveness to change, to 7-day averaging that should lead to less fake improvement on weekends and less fake regression on Mondays and Tuesdays. I've saved today's data in both 4- and 7-day format, so that tomorrow's comparisons can be based on 7-day, if I have time to make the code change tomorrow.

Ontario continues to drift upward, with what I think is an R value of somewhere around 1.4. Every day, about 10% of our active cases give rise on average to one new case, and given that they stay active for 14 days, that means each active case is spreading COVID-19 to an average of 1.4 new cases. As everyone knows by now, R values of 1 are bad, because they lead to the epidemic worsening rather than improving. And of course, next month when school resumes, things should get much worse, so now's a good time to get ready for the next lockdown.

We had 100 new cases, which is the fifth three-digit day in a row, which hasn't happened since we ended a four-month run of triple digits at the end of July.

In the North, we continue to see only the occasional sporadic case, and the only major population centre where R appears to be significantly higher than the provincial average is York Region, where it looks like it's a little over 2.

Today's chart updates one from three weeks ago, showing estimated days to one percent for the countries around the world, based on JHU Data. You can see it interactively here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-24

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.S. (379HI→397HI), Louisiana (452HI→452HI), New York (1565HI→1565HI), Spain (10→5), France (53→53), Sweden (55→60), Romania (56→62), India (63→66), Mexico (73→92), Austria (107→118), Iran (129→140), Poland (139→150), South Korea (169→182), U.K. (201→201), Italy (214→208), Turkey (235→234), Germany (247→245), Canada (393→311), Toronto (378→369), Ontario (493→462), New Zealand (893→899)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Spain, Italy, Canada

Worse: Germany

The same: Turkey

Better: France, India, Iran, Poland, South Korea, U.K.

Much better: Sweden, Romania, Mexico, Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Australia (74, no new data, 55.1%), Singapore (86, no new data, 15.0%), China (131, no new data, 1.7%), Norway (218, no new data, 22.9%), Denmark (281, no new data, 41.7%), Thailand (292, no new data, 8.0%), Israel (558, no new data, 63.6%), Japan (853, no new data, 76.3%), Malta (2151, no new data, 95.6%), Malaysia (2172, no new data, 7.0%), South Africa (2262, no new data, 52.0%), Indonesia (3046, no new data, 96.7%), Alabama (1255→3199, 93.5%), Brazil (82546, no new data, 90.8%), California (new→153892, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (74): Holy See, Saint Kitts and Nevis (eradicated); Grenada (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Botswana (14, 100.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 7.1%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Malawi (14, 92.4%); Mauritius (14, 0.4%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 1.8%); Seychelles (14, 6.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Fiji (15, 32.7%); Cambodia (17, 11.4%); Mongolia (18, 8.2%); Djibouti (52, 2.8%); Eritrea (56, 23.2%); Papua New Guinea (68, 70.5%); Belarus (69, 4.4%); Ecuador (75, 21.3%); Kazakhstan (100, 31.0%); Barbados (118, 42.3%); Cote d'Ivoire (123, 33.6%); Madagascar (140, 21.9%); Equatorial Guinea (155, 41.6%); Suriname (182, 84.9%); Zimbabwe (198, 31.6%); Venezuela (213, 75.8%); Vietnam (215, 78.5%); Pakistan (229, 9.8%); Mauritania (244, 18.7%); Yemen (276, 46.9%); Eswatini (324, 77.1%); Uruguay (327, 69.0%); Bahrain (354, 55.3%); Ghana (358, 27.1%); Iceland (368, 10.5%); Kosovo (384, 85.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (399, 65.5%); Montenegro (438, 44.3%); Afghanistan (544, 60.3%); Angola (547, 91.1%); Uzbekistan (579, 38.6%); Saudi Arabia (749, 37.6%); Colombia (773, 88.5%); Bhutan (775, 95.6%); West Bank and Gaza (775, 94.2%); South Sudan (952, 56.9%); El Salvador (966, 94.6%); Gabon (1030, 61.3%); Qatar (1085, 9.8%); Philippines (1157, 66.5%); Liberia (1191, 77.8%); Dominican Republic (1369, 86.0%); Kenya (1431, 92.4%); Guatemala (1480, 49.3%); Senegal (1795, 95.6%); Kuwait (1865, 48.7%); Serbia (2004, 89.4%); Central African Republic (2178, 61.0%); Haiti (2643, 76.7%); Kyrgyzstan (3479, 42.8%); Russia (3883, 72.0%); Oman (4287, 20.5%); Armenia (4671, 49.0%); Panama (15643, 93.7%); Egypt (30392, 76.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): NH (14, 13.8%); MP (170, 88.5%); NC (313, 53.5%); TX (713, 73.1%); UT (726, 60.2%); MI (728, 93.2%); NE (778, 93.9%); PA (879, 66.1%); WI (947, 86.8%); WV (1000, 87.4%); AR (1325, 73.0%); ID (1461, 97.1%); FL (1837, 88.2%); OH (2200, 71.9%); AZ (3508, 81.3%); GA (4133, 98.7%); NV (7422, 96.6%); SC (40610, 92.0%); CO (59712, 96.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (7, 0.0%); NL (10, 0.0%); PE (14, 40.0%); SK (51, 30.5%); QC (744, 6.2%)

We had a fourth straight day of at least 100 new cases a day in Ontario, for the first time since July 28th. The 105 today was the lowest though in the last four days, and was down from yesterday's 115. Our new cases per active case were at 11.5%, or more than half above the equilibrium level. There were no cases in the North; all 24 Eastern cases were in Ottawa; Central East cases were down to 34 from 48; Toronto up to 30 from 20; Southwest down to 9 from 20; Central West down to 8 from 14.

Toronto's active cases rose by three over the weekend to 293, continuing a very slow but constant upward creep that started on August 14th at 252.

British Columbia's active cases are on a 25-day increasing streak, from 251 to 913 (up from 824 yesterday). Alberta's 1172 is up 28 from yesterday, but within the 1000-1200 band where their numbers have been plateauing for the last 20 days. Saskatchewan continues its 8-day downward trend from 192 back into double digits with today's 98. Quebec has been in the 1200s for the past five days, drifting mostly downward. The Atlantic provinces are all in the single digits, with Newfoundland and Labrador on its fourth day with no active cases. No active cases in the North now for a week.

Today's chart shows all of my countries of interest, plotting their current estimates active changes vs. their rate of change.

Stay safe.

2020-08-23

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (367HI→231HI), Brazil (252HI→298HI), U.S. (390HI→379HI), Louisiana (452HI→452HI), New York (1647HI→1565HI), Spain (10→10), France (57→53), Romania (51→56), India (64→63), Mexico (73→73), Austria (101→107), Iran (129→129), Poland (131→139), South Korea (180→169), Malta (145→193), U.K. (212→201), Italy (250→214), Turkey (231→235), Germany (205→247), Toronto (378→378), Ontario (508→493), New Zealand (893→893)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, France, South Korea, U.K., Italy

The same: India

Better: Spain, Mexico, Austria, Iran, Poland, Turkey

Much better: Brazil, Romania, Malta, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Australia (85→85, 59.2%), Singapore (110→90, 16.1%), China (115→100, 1.8%), Thailand (199→197, 7.7%), Norway (331→262, 22.3%), Malaysia (143→492, 7.0%), Denmark (283→654, 45.8%), Israel (596→793, 64.1%), South Africa (469→995, 51.8%), Alabama (new→1255, 92.6%), Canada (new→2230, 14.2%), Indonesia (2310→2399, 97.5%), Japan (1114→2522, 77.3%), Sweden (new→140040, 84.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Holy See (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (1, 0.0%); Grenada (8, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Botswana (14, 100.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Dominica (14, 7.1%); Laos (14, 15.4%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (15, 11.4%); Fiji (15, 32.7%); Mongolia (23, 9.1%); Eritrea (56, 23.2%); Papua New Guinea (60, 67.9%); Belarus (65, 4.8%); Taiwan (66, 8.7%); Zambia (66, 27.3%); Madagascar (88, 21.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (119, 35.2%); Kazakhstan (146, 34.9%); Pakistan (159, 10.2%); Djibouti (195, 3.7%); Ghana (199, 26.2%); Equatorial Guinea (219, 41.6%); Montenegro (237, 44.0%); Iceland (253, 10.2%); Gabon (260, 61.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (286, 14.2%); Mauritania (323, 19.4%); Vietnam (352, 82.5%); Uzbekistan (384, 38.6%); Uruguay (486, 71.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (503, 65.5%); Bahrain (541, 57.0%); Kosovo (543, 87.4%); Venezuela (634, 83.3%); Afghanistan (678, 61.1%); Bhutan (775, 95.6%); Guinea-Bissau (830, 76.5%); Chile (938, 18.3%); Liberia (1012, 78.3%); Bulgaria (1126, 82.8%); El Salvador (1149, 95.9%); Dominican Republic (1211, 86.4%); Armenia (1288, 48.3%); Panama (1406, 91.7%); Russia (1474, 71.4%); Qatar (1489, 9.9%); South Sudan (1505, 57.2%); Yemen (1518, 50.9%); North Macedonia (1530, 69.1%); Zimbabwe (1646, 38.9%); Saudi Arabia (1682, 38.6%); Colombia (1768, 92.5%); Serbia (2070, 90.0%); Central African Republic (2178, 61.0%); Suriname (2230, 94.0%); Somalia (2309, 67.6%); Oman (2518, 20.5%); Azerbaijan (3582, 20.2%); Cuba (3642, 61.5%); Guatemala (5997, 50.3%); Kuwait (6183, 48.5%); Malawi (7673, 92.1%); Angola (9635, 94.9%); Kenya (12708, 93.9%); Kyrgyzstan (14433, 44.4%); West Bank and Gaza (46318, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (19): MP (179, 92.3%); NH (530, 13.5%); MI (588, 90.3%); AR (762, 74.6%); TX (765, 74.8%); UT (863, 60.9%); PA (1060, 70.8%); WI (1195, 88.1%); OH (1252, 71.4%); ID (1278, 96.6%); FL (1747, 88.6%); NE (2196, 96.0%); RI (2518, 97.5%); AZ (2740, 81.5%); CO (3683, 96.8%); GA (3735, 98.2%); SC (11333, 91.9%); WA (37828, 97.6%); NJ (134216, 80.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); YT (8, 0.0%); NL (11, 0.0%); PE (14, 40.0%); NB (40, 12.3%); SK (58, 33.0%); QC (415, 6.2%)

115 new cases in Ontario today, up from 108 yesterday, raising our active case count by 7 to 1,010. That's one new case in the North (in Sudbury); only 7 in Ottawa today (lowest in six days) but 5 more cases across the East; 48 new cases (up from 45) in the Central East; 20 in Toronto (the lowest all week); 20 in the Southwest (up from 6 due to 10 cases in Windsor-Essex); 14 in the Central West, same as yesterday. Our provincial new cases per activie case has been running a little over 10% for more than a week, well above the 7% equilibrium level.

Today's graph was going to be the CMAJ data for active cases in each province, but I'm dissatisfied with the significant differences between their confirmed case numbers and the Ontario government's numbers, dating back as far as April 1st, and changing significantly from day to day. Instead, it's an update on the active cases in the United States by state and territory, stacking from the bottom the regions that have worsened in the past week (starting with California), then above them the ones that have improved (starting with Florida). Within each tranche, the ones that have the most active cases (California, New York, Illinois, ...) are listed below the ones with the fewest.

Stay safe.

2020-08-22

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (220HI→232HI), California (321HI→367HI), U.S. (418HI→470HI), New York (2147HI→1647HI), Spain (12→12), Romania (61→53), Sweden (56→55), India (69→67), Mexico (85→85), Austria (118→102), Malta (29→106), Iran (131→129), Poland (160→144), Germany (187→183), South Korea (212→191), U.K. (242→223), Turkey (232→233), Italy (398→309), Toronto (487→378), Ontario (527→488), New Zealand (690→652)

Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last four days) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases. Starting on 2020-08-02, in regions where active cases are still increasing but more than 1% of the population has been infected, I show an estimate of how many days it will be until 40% of the population is infected, the point at which herd immunity might begin to slow down spread among survivors in the most optimistic scenario.

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Romania, Austria, Poland, Germany, South Korea, U.K., Italy

Worse: India, Iran

The same: Sweden

Better: Israel, Spain, Mexico, Turkey

Much better: California, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (83→89, 41.0%), Australia (473→95, 64.9%), Malaysia (140→142, 7.0%), Singapore (139→143, 20.5%), China (200→149, 2.1%), Thailand (14→199, 7.8%), Norway (new→236, 19.8%), South Africa (372→360, 51.9%), Japan (798→736, 79.1%), Brazil (724→976, 91.1%), Denmark (new→2089, 46.2%), Alabama (new→3814, 92.6%), France (new→3958, 84.6%), Indonesia (13482→10261, 98.6%), Canada (2657→15717, 13.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Dominica, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (3, 0.0%); Grenada (10, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Fiji (14, 57.1%); Laos (14, 23.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 1.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (26, 22.7%); Mongolia (36, 13.6%); Zimbabwe (40, 37.4%); Comoros (44, 13.5%); Sri Lanka (56, 15.0%); Taiwan (74, 8.3%); Papua New Guinea (83, 67.9%); Luxembourg (91, 27.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (107, 13.5%); Madagascar (111, 25.9%); Eritrea (115, 23.2%); Belarus (116, 6.3%); Niger (136, 3.5%); Burundi (156, 70.8%); Kazakhstan (162, 42.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (165, 18.6%); Congo (Brazzaville) (169, 70.7%); Czechia (182, 81.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (211, 41.2%); Gabon (234, 63.3%); Djibouti (243, 4.1%); Pakistan (260, 11.4%); Ghana (276, 27.2%); Vietnam (285, 89.6%); Yemen (308, 51.7%); Montenegro (353, 47.2%); Saudi Arabia (355, 39.6%); Kyrgyzstan (384, 42.5%); Angola (389, 92.6%); Eswatini (398, 86.0%); Chile (422, 18.2%); Panama (441, 90.7%); Latvia (450, 46.9%); Bulgaria (484, 83.4%); Sierra Leone (578, 71.0%); Azerbaijan (583, 20.1%); Dominican Republic (622, 88.5%); Iceland (649, 10.7%); Cuba (673, 68.7%); North Macedonia (770, 70.1%); Armenia (907, 49.5%); Guatemala (1001, 51.0%); Colombia (1112, 93.6%); Serbia (1192, 90.5%); Kosovo (1235, 93.3%); Afghanistan (1316, 62.8%); Uzbekistan (1631, 42.2%); South Sudan (1768, 57.8%); Somalia (1769, 67.3%); El Salvador (1858, 97.8%); Tajikistan (2345, 59.7%); Russia (2355, 72.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2714, 94.4%); Guinea-Bissau (2867, 78.4%); Oman (2935, 20.5%); Bahrain (3037, 61.0%); Suriname (5602, 91.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): MT (207, 79.8%); NH (277, 13.8%); WV (326, 87.8%); AR (469, 77.5%); OH (633, 72.9%); TX (644, 77.0%); TN (869, 90.4%); PA (986, 69.8%); WI (1168, 89.7%); DC (1181, 58.8%); UT (1586, 63.2%); AZ (2153, 81.8%); VT (2772, 22.2%); CO (3057, 96.8%); SC (3150, 92.0%); DE (3298, 98.8%); IN (3301, 74.7%); FL (4343, 90.2%); ID (5745, 99.0%); WA (7873, 97.6%); VA (11780, 98.6%); NM (11883, 92.0%); NV (29378, 97.7%); NJ (66440, 80.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (10, 0.0%); NL (13, 0.0%); NB (18, 11.0%); SK (92, 41.7%); QC (168, 6.4%)

Australia saw its first day with fewer than 200 new cases since mid-July.

Malta's numbers have dropped artificially because the European Centre for Disease Control have reportedly directed it not to count the bulk of its cases, who are migrants who have arrived by boat. I have been unable to find any sources for information about how many cases of COVID-19 there are in migrant populations around the world. Ignoring the vast majority of the cases in a country seems like an ineffective way to try to controll a pandemic, and I wonder where else this is taking place. It also pains me to have to call them migrants, because I have learned that they are not technically refugees until they successfully go through an application process.

The U.S. has begun construction of a fence along the U.S.-Canadian border near Vancouver. I'm grateful, but hope that it doesn't keep my Canadian expat friends from finding their way home.

There have been no new cases in Northeastern Ontario since August 8. In the Northwest, there was one new case in Thunder Bay on August 18th, and they are currently running about one new case per week. Ottawa had 37 new cases today, it's highest number in at least three weeks; Kingston had a new case for two days in a row, after going for weeks without any. There were a total of 34 new cases in the Central East district around Toronto, a little more than its seven-day average of 29. Toronto saw 25 new cases in provincial data, averaging now more than twice as many new cases a day this week as last week. In the South and Central West, total new cases declined slightly week-on-week from a daily average of 37 cases to 34.

Ontario active cases, not including yesterday's partial data, increased for the eighth day, rising from 891 to 986 over that period.

The Toronto District School Board announced today that they are postponing the start of the school year by a week, to September 15th, and redoing the aborted registration process for in-school vs. virtual learning next week.

The number of hospitalized COVID-19 cases in Toronto today rose for the first time since June 27th, from 49 to 50. Active cases increased for a second day, up 8 to 290.

Today's chart shows the date of the last sporadic case in each Toronto neighbourhood. I was wondering why real estate was moving so quickly where we live in Playter Estates-Danforth; I see today (touch wood) that we have now gone the longest in the city without a new case, since June 2nd. You can see an interactive version of the chart here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-21

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (220HI→232HI), California (321HI→367HI), U.S. (418HI→470HI), New York (2147HI→1647HI), Spain (12→12), Romania (61→53), Sweden (56→55), India (69→67), Mexico (85→85), Austria (118→102), Malta (29→106), Iran (131→129), Poland (160→144), Germany (187→183), South Korea (212→191), U.K. (242→223), Turkey (232→233), Italy (398→309), Toronto (487→378), Ontario (527→488), New Zealand (690→652)

Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last four days) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases. Starting on 2020-08-02, in regions where active cases are still increasing but more than 1% of the population has been infected, I show an estimate of how many days it will be until 40% of the population is infected, the point at which herd immunity might begin to slow down spread among survivors in the most optimistic scenario.

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Romania, Austria, Poland, Germany, South Korea, U.K., Italy

Worse: India, Iran

The same: Sweden

Better: Israel, Spain, Mexico, Turkey

Much better: California, Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (83→89, 41.0%), Australia (473→95, 64.9%), Malaysia (140→142, 7.0%), Singapore (139→143, 20.5%), China (200→149, 2.1%), Thailand (14→199, 7.8%), Norway (new→236, 19.8%), South Africa (372→360, 51.9%), Japan (798→736, 79.1%), Brazil (724→976, 91.1%), Denmark (new→2089, 46.2%), Alabama (new→3814, 92.6%), France (new→3958, 84.6%), Indonesia (13482→10261, 98.6%), Canada (2657→15717, 13.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (73): Dominica, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (3, 0.0%); Grenada (10, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Fiji (14, 57.1%); Laos (14, 23.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 0.8%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 9.5%); San Marino (14, 1.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (26, 22.7%); Mongolia (36, 13.6%); Zimbabwe (40, 37.4%); Comoros (44, 13.5%); Sri Lanka (56, 15.0%); Taiwan (74, 8.3%); Papua New Guinea (83, 67.9%); Luxembourg (91, 27.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (107, 13.5%); Madagascar (111, 25.9%); Eritrea (115, 23.2%); Belarus (116, 6.3%); Niger (136, 3.5%); Burundi (156, 70.8%); Kazakhstan (162, 42.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (165, 18.6%); Congo (Brazzaville) (169, 70.7%); Czechia (182, 81.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (211, 41.2%); Gabon (234, 63.3%); Djibouti (243, 4.1%); Pakistan (260, 11.4%); Ghana (276, 27.2%); Vietnam (285, 89.6%); Yemen (308, 51.7%); Montenegro (353, 47.2%); Saudi Arabia (355, 39.6%); Kyrgyzstan (384, 42.5%); Angola (389, 92.6%); Eswatini (398, 86.0%); Chile (422, 18.2%); Panama (441, 90.7%); Latvia (450, 46.9%); Bulgaria (484, 83.4%); Sierra Leone (578, 71.0%); Azerbaijan (583, 20.1%); Dominican Republic (622, 88.5%); Iceland (649, 10.7%); Cuba (673, 68.7%); North Macedonia (770, 70.1%); Armenia (907, 49.5%); Guatemala (1001, 51.0%); Colombia (1112, 93.6%); Serbia (1192, 90.5%); Kosovo (1235, 93.3%); Afghanistan (1316, 62.8%); Uzbekistan (1631, 42.2%); South Sudan (1768, 57.8%); Somalia (1769, 67.3%); El Salvador (1858, 97.8%); Tajikistan (2345, 59.7%); Russia (2355, 72.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (2714, 94.4%); Guinea-Bissau (2867, 78.4%); Oman (2935, 20.5%); Bahrain (3037, 61.0%); Suriname (5602, 91.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): MT (207, 79.8%); NH (277, 13.8%); WV (326, 87.8%); AR (469, 77.5%); OH (633, 72.9%); TX (644, 77.0%); TN (869, 90.4%); PA (986, 69.8%); WI (1168, 89.7%); DC (1181, 58.8%); UT (1586, 63.2%); AZ (2153, 81.8%); VT (2772, 22.2%); CO (3057, 96.8%); SC (3150, 92.0%); DE (3298, 98.8%); IN (3301, 74.7%); FL (4343, 90.2%); ID (5745, 99.0%); WA (7873, 97.6%); VA (11780, 98.6%); NM (11883, 92.0%); NV (29378, 97.7%); NJ (66440, 80.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (10, 0.0%); NL (13, 0.0%); NB (18, 11.0%); SK (92, 41.7%); QC (168, 6.4%)

Australia saw its first day with fewer than 200 new cases since mid-July.

Malta's numbers have dropped artificially because the European Centre for Disease Control have reportedly directed it not to count the bulk of its cases, who are migrants who have arrived by boat. I have been unable to find any sources for information about how many cases of COVID-19 there are in migrant populations around the world. Ignoring the vast majority of the cases in a country seems like an ineffective way to try to controll a pandemic, and I wonder where else this is taking place. It also pains me to have to call them migrants, because I have learned that they are not technically refugees until they successfully go through an application process.

The U.S. has begun construction of a fence along the U.S.-Canadian border near Vancouver. I'm grateful, but hope that it doesn't keep my Canadian expat friends from finding their way home.

There have been no new cases in Northeastern Ontario since August 8. In the Northwest, there was one new case in Thunder Bay on August 18th, and they are currently running about one new case per week. Ottawa had 37 new cases today, it's highest number in at least three weeks; Kingston had a new case for two days in a row, after going for weeks without any. There were a total of 34 new cases in the Central East district around Toronto, a little more than its seven-day average of 29. Toronto saw 25 new cases in provincial data, averaging now more than twice as many new cases a day this week as last week. In the South and Central West, total new cases declined slightly week-on-week from a daily average of 37 cases to 34.

Ontario active cases, not including yesterday's partial data, increased for the eighth day, rising from 891 to 986 over that period.

The Toronto District School Board announced today that they are postponing the start of the school year by a week, to September 15th, and redoing the aborted registration process for in-school vs. virtual learning next week.

The number of hospitalized COVID-19 cases in Toronto today rose for the first time since June 27th, from 49 to 50. Active cases increased for a second day, up 8 to 290.

Today's chart shows the date of the last sporadic case in each Toronto neighbourhood. I was wondering why real estate was moving so quickly where we live in Playter Estates-Danforth; I see today (touch wood) that we have now gone the longest in the city without a new case, since June 2nd. You can see an interactive version of the chart here:

Stay safe.

2020-08-20

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Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (276HI→237HI), California (252HI→321HI), U.S. (354HI→388HI), New York (1991HI→2147HI), Spain (17→12), Malta (26→29), Romania (66→65), Sweden (64→68), India (70→71), France (99→99), Iran (134→131), Denmark (120→137), Austria (130→138), Poland (166→170), South Korea (211→211), Indonesia (207→222), Germany (271→225), Turkey (244→242), U.K. (235→247), Norway (298→298), Canada (367→350), Italy (481→477), Toronto (626→487), Ontario (515→520), New Zealand (550→690)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, Spain, Germany, Canada

Worse: Iran, Turkey

The same: Romania

Better: U.S., Sweden, India, France, Austria, Poland, South Korea, Indonesia, U.K., Norway

Much better: California, Malta, Denmark

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Louisiana (new→81, 37.2%), Singapore (113→123, 23.5%), Thailand (475→149, 8.6%), Japan (501→169, 78.5%), China (267→264, 2.4%), Mexico (305→358, 74.3%), South Africa (230→425, 54.4%), Australia (626→835, 91.8%), Malaysia (new→1154, 7.4%), Brazil (690→5269, 91.3%), Alabama (4211→22689, 96.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Dominica, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (5, 0.0%); Brunei, Grenada (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 4.5%); Comoros (14, 5.8%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 47.9%); Fiji (14, 57.1%); Laos (14, 23.1%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino, Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Cambodia (19, 25.0%); Mongolia (33, 15.5%); Zimbabwe (36, 39.6%); Sri Lanka (48, 14.4%); Cameroon (64, 39.5%); Congo (Kinshasa) (79, 18.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (84, 15.1%); Djibouti (85, 4.1%); Madagascar (97, 29.4%); Uzbekistan (101, 42.4%); Ecuador (102, 30.9%); Burundi (104, 65.8%); Burma (106, 31.5%); Philippines (117, 64.6%); Belarus (120, 7.7%); Luxembourg (124, 27.8%); Zambia (134, 42.1%); Eswatini (162, 82.3%); Kazakhstan (168, 46.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (225, 69.6%); Cuba (229, 62.0%); Azerbaijan (238, 20.4%); Saudi Arabia (252, 39.6%); South Sudan (257, 58.3%); Pakistan (265, 13.1%); Czechia (305, 84.9%); Mauritania (349, 21.1%); Vietnam (362, 89.0%); Montenegro (367, 49.9%); Lesotho (377, 84.9%); Yemen (378, 51.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (414, 46.6%); Kyrgyzstan (455, 44.6%); Somalia (471, 68.5%); Togo (515, 88.8%); Guatemala (546, 50.6%); Maldives (631, 94.3%); Namibia (631, 94.9%); Dominican Republic (647, 89.6%); Sierra Leone (647, 70.4%); Kenya (677, 94.2%); Gabon (724, 69.4%); Chile (781, 19.1%); Armenia (803, 49.7%); Bulgaria (889, 85.5%); Angola (893, 95.2%); Colombia (1029, 95.2%); Panama (1055, 94.5%); Cabo Verde (1129, 81.2%); Kosovo (1154, 93.3%); Afghanistan (1220, 64.7%); Kuwait (1320, 48.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1452, 93.4%); Serbia (1693, 91.7%); Tajikistan (1957, 59.7%); North Macedonia (2418, 70.6%); Argentina (2426, 59.5%); Latvia (4721, 45.9%); El Salvador (5200, 99.2%); Moldova (6607, 96.9%); Malawi (8771, 92.5%); Russia (19998, 73.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (24): NC (132, 55.1%); MS (183, 66.5%); WV (222, 86.3%); NH (224, 14.1%); MN (289, 52.0%); AR (409, 78.4%); OH (553, 73.8%); UT (934, 63.7%); PA (1018, 73.7%); WI (1047, 91.1%); SC (1488, 92.3%); TN (1632, 92.0%); TX (1652, 79.8%); IN (1816, 73.4%); WA (1856, 97.7%); MA (2119, 34.8%); NV (2567, 97.1%); AZ (2781, 82.9%); DE (2862, 98.5%); FL (4108, 91.2%); MD (4238, 98.6%); OK (4840, 95.5%); CO (7591, 97.9%); OR (17855, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (eradicated); YT (12, 0.0%); NL (14, 1.0%); SK (115, 48.0%); QC (154, 6.7%); NB (159, 16.4%)

Toronto saw 46 new cases in two days, the first time it had reached that level since July 24. Active cases rose ten to 274, returning to where we were two weeks ago. According to provincial statistics, our new cases over the past week (143) are up almost 80% from the previous week (80).

Other areas in Ontario that saw steep increases week-on-week on at least ten cases were Middlesex-London (243%), Waterloo (150%), Huron Perth (90%) and Peel (55%). Overall, Ontario saw 102 new cases today, raising its active cases by 14 to 965, the sixth consecutive daily increase starting from 891.

Toronto released an updated version of its full case data today, so today's chart is my weekly update of how many new sporadic cases there have been each week. There is a slideshow of the past several weeks in the Facebook edition of today's post, and an interactive version of this week's graphic here:

Stay safe.