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COVID-19 New Case Rate vs. Proportion Infected

COVID-19 semilog phase diagram data visualisation

To suggest improvements or report errors, please email John Chew at poslfit@gmail.com.

Commentary

I’ve been posting commentary on Facebook about the “days to 1%” line in my Google Sheet linked above. This page contains the most recent entries.

Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last seven days (four before 2020-08-29) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases. Starting on 2020-08-02, in regions where active cases are still increasing but more than 1% of the population has been infected, I show an estimate of how many days it will be until 40% of the population is infected, the point at which herd immunity might begin to slow down spread among survivors in the most optimistic scenario.

2020-09-26

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→108HI), Spain (190HI→190HI), Alabama (405HI→405HI), U.S. (472HI→472HI), California (759HI→684HI), New York (1571HI→1571HI), France (10→10), Sweden (37→27), U.K. (37→34), Denmark (37→37), Romania (41→41), Austria (43→43), Toronto (55→54), Iran (81→80), Mexico (92→90), Canada (111→106), Italy (127→124), Ontario (132→131), Indonesia (135→135), Poland (136→136), Norway (164→165), Germany (169→174), Turkey (183→183), Malaysia (459→413)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Sweden, Canada

Worse: U.K., Mexico, Italy

The same: Toronto, Iran, Ontario

Better: Israel, Spain, France, Denmark, Romania, Austria, Indonesia, Poland, Norway, Germany, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (584→14, 6.6%), Australia (149→186, 17.3%), Louisiana (288→198, 21.8%), Singapore (114→198, 2.1%), South Korea (227→214, 28.4%), Thailand (313→279, 7.0%), China (332→350, 0.6%), Japan (1816→531, 37.7%), Malta (new→537, 91.4%), South Africa (7579→1496, 30.6%), Brazil (798→3427, 70.3%), India (1544→9808, 95.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (5, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (9, 0.0%); Saint Lucia (13, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.8%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Somalia (14, 42.5%); Taiwan (14, 8.7%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Vietnam (19, 7.1%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Eritrea (42, 28.3%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Egypt (57, 9.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (60, 6.1%); Croatia (64, 44.2%); Barbados (94, 15.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (111, 7.2%); Chad (117, 22.0%); Mongolia (126, 9.1%); Cameroon (139, 20.4%); Uruguay (149, 69.3%); Yemen (233, 32.2%); Colombia (236, 50.6%); Saudi Arabia (244, 19.1%); Senegal (272, 59.4%); Mauritania (288, 8.2%); Gambia (348, 58.8%); Sri Lanka (351, 18.4%); Chile (419, 15.4%); Bhutan (424, 75.3%); Mozambique (429, 92.2%); West Bank and Gaza (457, 89.6%); Switzerland (458, 50.2%); Namibia (483, 48.8%); Malawi (491, 67.7%); Uzbekistan (552, 32.1%); Kazakhstan (597, 9.9%); Bahrain (599, 92.8%); Liberia (603, 7.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (619, 89.7%); Gabon (632, 28.3%); El Salvador (724, 50.3%); Panama (732, 82.0%); Madagascar (885, 31.0%); Nigeria (930, 44.3%); Maldives (1070, 47.1%); Azerbaijan (1077, 20.9%); Uganda (1271, 93.0%); Zimbabwe (1569, 52.6%); Peru (1752, 75.0%); Bangladesh (1816, 81.7%); Dominican Republic (1877, 71.1%); Kuwait (1970, 52.3%); Eswatini (2096, 32.5%); Venezuela (2109, 81.6%); Equatorial Guinea (2183, 16.1%); Tajikistan (2234, 60.5%); Burkina Faso (2316, 98.8%); Rwanda (2515, 65.5%); Syria (2580, 89.7%); Bolivia (2705, 78.2%); Ethiopia (3297, 85.4%); Haiti (4208, 64.6%); Guinea-Bissau (11742, 77.5%); Ghana (14019, 8.0%); Kyrgyzstan (23433, 20.9%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): TX (193, 44.7%); IA (319, 84.4%); VT (439, 18.0%); MP (503, 94.1%); PA (905, 77.1%); TN (956, 35.4%); ME (981, 81.5%); OH (996, 70.3%); RI (1591, 95.9%); MI (1673, 89.3%); MA (5653, 23.9%); GU (6152, 70.5%); GA (321177, 99.7%); VA (1193322, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); SK (261, 41.7%); BC (401, 68.4%); AB (721, 47.9%)

There were 146 new cases in Toronto today, bringing us to 1,511 active cases. We have 44 hospitalized cases, up from 27 a week ago. There were no school cases reported today because of the weekend, but the TDSB did announce that the first two classes have been asked to stay home in isolation due to a school outbreak. I can't imagine how parents with kids attending school in person must be feeling at this point.

Toronto has started temporarily closing individual clubs and restaurants whose noncompliance with COVID-19 public health requirements has resulted in identifiable outbreaks. Small steps toward a safer city.

There were 435 new cases in Ontario, the third consecutive 400+ day, something that last happened on May 23-25. Numbers have been increasing 50% weekly for the last three weeks. In the past week, Ottawa has seen the most new cases per capita, followed by Peel and Toronto, all more than 30 per 100K; Waterloo, York, Halton, Eastern Ontario, Renfrew and Durham also had more than 10 per 100K. At the beginning of the month, it was only Ottawa and Peel that were over 10 per 100K.

Today's chart shows the distribution of recent cases per capita across the province. You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-09-25

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→108HI), Spain (190HI→190HI), Alabama (405HI→405HI), U.S. (470HI→472HI), California (759HI→759HI), New York (1615HI→1571HI), France (10→10), Malta (34→34), Denmark (37→37), Sweden (37→37), U.K. (42→37), Romania (41→41), Austria (43→43), Toronto (62→55), Iran (84→81), Mexico (100→92), Canada (115→111), Italy (127→127), Ontario (132→132), Indonesia (138→135), Poland (136→136), Norway (163→164), Germany (171→169), Turkey (181→183), Malaysia (470→459)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.K., Toronto, Mexico, Canada

Worse: Iran, Indonesia, Germany

Better: Israel, Spain, France, Malta, Denmark, Sweden, Romania, Austria, Italy, Ontario, Poland, Norway, Turkey

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (135→114, 2.0%), Australia (148→149, 17.2%), South Korea (239→227, 30.3%), Louisiana (210→288, 21.8%), Thailand (751→313, 6.9%), China (2435→332, 0.6%), New Zealand (221→584, 6.5%), Brazil (484→798, 69.4%), India (1350→1544, 95.0%), Japan (1576→1816, 39.9%), South Africa (new→7579, 31.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (84): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (6, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (10, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Djibouti (14, 0.3%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mongolia (14, 9.1%); Papua New Guinea (14, 3.4%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 3.4%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Togo (14, 95.4%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Vietnam (24, 8.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (39, 6.2%); San Marino (40, 3.2%); Eritrea (42, 28.3%); Mauritius (53, 5.5%); Croatia (54, 43.3%); Egypt (71, 11.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (82, 7.0%); Suriname (91, 10.7%); Barbados (94, 15.4%); Chad (114, 21.5%); Cabo Verde (154, 49.8%); Mauritania (161, 8.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (193, 4.3%); Senegal (219, 61.0%); Saudi Arabia (233, 19.8%); Yemen (242, 33.3%); Chile (274, 14.8%); Cyprus (298, 52.7%); Ghana (305, 8.0%); Liberia (306, 7.6%); Mozambique (322, 89.1%); Bhutan (326, 76.5%); West Bank and Gaza (327, 88.6%); Uruguay (349, 76.9%); Maldives (353, 47.2%); Malawi (433, 67.6%); Haiti (446, 64.0%); Gambia (453, 60.0%); Sri Lanka (535, 18.8%); Panama (562, 81.9%); Gabon (582, 28.9%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (599, 91.4%); Peru (630, 68.0%); Morocco (636, 93.6%); Monaco (667, 61.5%); Madagascar (675, 31.1%); Cameroon (702, 20.4%); Kazakhstan (781, 10.2%); Namibia (786, 48.6%); Belize (846, 81.7%); Kuwait (859, 52.4%); Zimbabwe (927, 51.9%); Kyrgyzstan (950, 20.7%); Uzbekistan (962, 33.1%); Bahrain (1020, 94.8%); Colombia (1338, 61.3%); El Salvador (1463, 51.3%); Bangladesh (1896, 82.2%); Dominican Republic (1919, 71.5%); Argentina (2018, 94.9%); Bolivia (2128, 78.6%); Equatorial Guinea (2183, 16.1%); Tajikistan (2389, 60.7%); Syria (2528, 90.4%); Moldova (4490, 95.0%); Azerbaijan (7616, 21.4%); United Arab Emirates (7948, 60.4%); Guinea-Bissau (11742, 77.5%); Guinea (15998, 33.7%); Ethiopia (17147, 85.8%); North Macedonia (24325, 52.9%); Rwanda (60701, 67.1%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (14): VT (302, 17.3%); AR (303, 88.1%); OH (513, 70.4%); MP (523, 97.1%); GU (556, 63.3%); TN (605, 35.5%); TX (716, 43.9%); IA (756, 94.6%); MA (763, 22.5%); NH (1029, 15.2%); IN (2328, 87.9%); CT (4184, 95.2%); GA (82704, 99.9%); RI (356560, 96.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (84, 68.4%); SK (134, 38.3%)

The second wave got real in Ontario, as Premier Ford announced the closure of strip clubs (presumably because they weren't compatible with social distancing or contact tracing), and an earlier closing time for bars and restaurants (last call at 23:00, closing at midnight). We had one more death and 409 new cases, leaving us with 2,837 cumulative deaths, and 3,899 currently active cases including 236 cases in 198 schools.

In Quebec, the government called for people to stop socializing at home for the next 28 days, but confirmed that restaurants and bars would remain open during that time.

In Toronto, we saw 236 new cases (the 11th worst day in our history), bringing us to 1,460 active cases. 25 of our 140 neighbourhoods now have a recent sporadic case rate greater than 1 per 1,000 population (including York University Heights with 2.3/K), one week ago it was 8 neighbourhoods. No new cases in our neighbourhood since Saturday.

Today's chart is the original confirmed case ratio vs. rate of change phase diagram, with the latest data.

Stay safe.

2020-09-24

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (108HI→108HI), Spain (189HI→190HI), Alabama (405HI→405HI), U.S. (466HI→470HI), California (670HI→759HI), South Africa (1398HI→1403HI), New York (1615HI→1615HI), France (13→10), Denmark (41→37), Sweden (37→37), Romania (42→41), U.K. (42→42), Austria (43→43), Toronto (67→62), Iran (87→84), Canada (119→115), Italy (130→127), Ontario (138→132), Poland (142→136), Indonesia (142→138), Norway (177→163), Germany (170→171), Turkey (182→181), Malaysia (518→470)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: France, Denmark, Toronto, Canada, Ontario, Poland, Indonesia, Norway

Worse: Iran, Italy

The same: Romania, Turkey

Better: Israel, Spain, Sweden, U.K., Austria, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (95→135, 2.2%), Australia (162→148, 17.8%), Louisiana (236→210, 20.3%), New Zealand (249→221, 7.0%), South Korea (215→239, 30.8%), Brazil (966→484, 67.9%), Thailand (2384→751, 7.2%), Mexico (702→1242, 62.8%), India (1513→1350, 95.1%), Japan (5095→1576, 40.2%), China (new→2435, 0.6%), Malta (new→3795, 94.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (7, 0.0%); Brunei (9, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (11, 0.0%); Burundi (14, 10.8%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 4.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Vietnam (24, 8.8%); Suriname (33, 11.6%); Comoros (46, 9.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (49, 7.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (49, 4.0%); Croatia (61, 45.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (64, 6.8%); Egypt (79, 13.9%); Djibouti (94, 0.3%); Monaco (100, 53.4%); Chad (113, 21.2%); Mauritania (154, 8.6%); Cuba (196, 67.1%); Senegal (225, 62.8%); Yemen (227, 34.1%); Saudi Arabia (242, 20.6%); Sri Lanka (250, 19.2%); Peru (265, 64.5%); Eritrea (268, 39.9%); Chile (280, 14.9%); Philippines (281, 69.9%); Cyprus (299, 50.9%); Bhutan (326, 76.5%); Botswana (332, 76.3%); Maldives (405, 47.6%); Ecuador (431, 50.9%); Haiti (438, 63.4%); Belize (439, 81.7%); Cabo Verde (440, 51.1%); Gambia (490, 61.0%); Panama (498, 83.2%); Colombia (526, 57.4%); Morocco (535, 91.7%); El Salvador (546, 51.0%); Eswatini (555, 33.6%); West Bank and Gaza (556, 89.8%); Kuwait (560, 52.9%); Malawi (570, 68.7%); Gabon (582, 28.9%); Kazakhstan (618, 10.2%); Liberia (624, 7.8%); Namibia (745, 48.0%); Uruguay (746, 78.5%); Kyrgyzstan (748, 20.5%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (827, 95.5%); Bahrain (828, 95.5%); Argentina (897, 93.4%); Uzbekistan (1013, 33.3%); Zimbabwe (1152, 52.2%); Bolivia (1284, 78.5%); Azerbaijan (1345, 21.1%); Syria (1724, 90.8%); Dominican Republic (1744, 72.1%); Bangladesh (1883, 82.8%); Madagascar (1999, 31.8%); United Arab Emirates (2059, 60.1%); Mali (2087, 76.3%); Venezuela (2709, 82.7%); Papua New Guinea (3407, 63.7%); Ethiopia (4822, 85.9%); Tajikistan (5137, 61.1%); Mozambique (7640, 91.5%); Somalia (13513, 42.5%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (13): MS (78, 29.9%); NC (186, 57.1%); VT (246, 17.8%); AR (269, 85.8%); NH (276, 15.2%); TN (441, 34.5%); MA (484, 21.3%); OH (551, 70.4%); IN (716, 86.7%); VI (1228, 21.4%); IA (1239, 95.5%); PA (4324, 75.9%); AK (4705, 96.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (120, 69.6%)

Malta has doubled its total death toll in two weeks, now 28, due to a spread of the disease throughout nursing homes similar to what we saw in Toronto in April.

Ontario has started publishing its school COVID-19 data in CSV format, with one record per affected school per day; it means that if you don't check their website daily, you can find older results. The database data appears to be missing two cases that appear in counts in the summary page.

With the new numbers, we are now at 208 cases in 178 schools in Ontario doubling every 2.8 school days, and 31 cases in 28 Toronto schools doubling every 2.3 days. Toronto had been in third place behind Brampton until yesterday, but now is solidly in second place.

Ontario reported 409 new confirmed cases today, bringing our active case count to 3,774. For the first time in four days, only one person died needlessly, rather than three. Our recent case fatality rate hovers around 1%, suggesting at least that we are detecting most contagious cases, even if we aren't doing much to stop them.

Toronto saw another 151 new cases today, extending our triple digit run to a full week for the first time since early June.

Normally on a Thursday I would run a map showing how long it had been since the last case in each Toronto neighbourhood. I won't this week, because it would be almost monochromatic. If you live in Thorncliffe Park (August 23) or Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills (July 23), give yourself a pat on the back, and breathe freely when outdoors in your neighbourhood.

Instead, I'll run the one that shows active cases in each Canadian province and territory, as reported by CMAJ.

Government officials at all levels are asking Canadians to cut back on seeing each other privately, while encouraging them to socialize in restaurants and bars. Canadians, while generally good at obeying the law, seem less respectful than most of nonsensical official advice.

Stay safe.

2020-09-23

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (137HI→108HI), Spain (189HI→189HI), Alabama (395HI→405HI), U.S. (487HI→466HI), California (680HI→670HI), New York (1615HI→1615HI), France (13→13), Malta (29→35), Sweden (38→37), Denmark (41→41), Romania (42→42), U.K. (46→42), Austria (43→43), Toronto (69→67), Iran (90→87), Canada (121→119), Italy (132→130), Ontario (139→138), Indonesia (143→142), Poland (151→142), Germany (169→170), Norway (185→177), Turkey (182→182), China (32204→32900)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Israel, U.K., Poland, Norway

Worse: Toronto, Iran, Canada, Italy

The same: Sweden, Ontario, Indonesia

Better: Spain, France, Denmark, Romania, Austria, Germany, Turkey

Much better: Malta

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Singapore (81→95, 2.3%), Australia (283→162, 19.0%), South Korea (231→215, 31.7%), Malaysia (new→229, 25.6%), Louisiana (new→236, 19.1%), New Zealand (140→249, 6.7%), Mexico (628→702, 59.9%), Brazil (1244→966, 72.9%), India (1378→1513, 95.9%), Thailand (1185→2384, 7.6%), South Africa (new→3802, 31.3%), Japan (1370→5095, 40.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (82): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (8, 0.0%); Brunei (10, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (12, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burundi (14, 9.2%); Cabo Verde (14, 53.3%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Fiji (14, 16.3%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); MS Zaandam, Madagascar (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); San Marino (14, 4.2%); Tajikistan (14, 61.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (22, 11.6%); Sao Tome and Principe (30, 4.0%); Comoros (36, 9.6%); Mauritania (77, 8.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (83, 7.3%); Egypt (88, 15.7%); Djibouti (94, 0.3%); Vietnam (105, 15.5%); Cote d'Ivoire (116, 8.8%); Monaco (119, 53.4%); Eswatini (154, 32.8%); Belize (170, 75.5%); Cyprus (175, 44.0%); Sri Lanka (177, 19.2%); Zambia (217, 19.2%); Senegal (231, 64.2%); Saudi Arabia (254, 21.5%); Ecuador (257, 43.8%); Eritrea (268, 39.9%); El Salvador (287, 51.1%); Philippines (289, 67.5%); Yemen (315, 34.8%); Liberia (316, 7.8%); Croatia (319, 68.4%); Bhutan (332, 77.6%); Botswana (332, 76.3%); Chile (347, 15.7%); Cuba (391, 70.6%); Maldives (395, 48.5%); Argentina (496, 90.5%); Kuwait (499, 53.6%); Papua New Guinea (499, 64.0%); Panama (515, 84.9%); Gambia (559, 61.6%); Morocco (612, 91.6%); Haiti (740, 65.3%); Uzbekistan (867, 33.3%); Sudan (884, 85.4%); Switzerland (1101, 45.4%); Kyrgyzstan (1128, 20.6%); Syria (1136, 90.8%); Gabon (1153, 29.7%); Bolivia (1306, 79.0%); Venezuela (1310, 82.7%); Azerbaijan (1311, 21.4%); Rwanda (1323, 66.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (1410, 94.7%); Zimbabwe (1435, 52.7%); Mali (1462, 76.2%); Bahrain (1736, 97.5%); United Arab Emirates (1799, 59.4%); Bangladesh (1911, 83.3%); Iraq (3207, 98.6%); Malawi (3207, 71.9%); Namibia (3581, 48.4%); Ethiopia (3675, 86.0%); Kazakhstan (6931, 10.7%); Moldova (7902, 91.7%); Dominican Republic (19234, 72.7%); Nicaragua (93179, 100.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): MS (66, 26.8%); NH (141, 14.3%); NC (160, 52.0%); VT (185, 17.6%); AR (233, 82.4%); MT (363, 86.0%); IN (685, 86.9%); OH (699, 71.6%); HI (1338, 81.3%); IA (3144, 95.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (120, 69.6%)

The City of Toronto has redone their COVID-19 page, and it's worth a look if you like pandemic data (and who doesn't?).

https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/covid-19-latest-city-of-toronto-news/covid-19-status-of-cases-in-toronto/

They've kept most of the old data (although I currently don't see where they've moved the current hospital occupancy counts, not %, to), and added some interesting new figures. We are for instance at 89% occupancy in acute care hospital beds, which is probably a good thing - every time I've been with someone who needed hospital care, beds were always far over capacity. We are dropping day by day on our ability to process tests in a timely manner, and are down to 22% within 24 hours with a target of 60%. It's not just the nervous uninfected who are using up all those tests either - our positive rate is up to 1.9%, which as with most statistics is a figure we last saw back at the beginning of June.

Today being Wednesday, Toronto has also updated its extract of iPHIS case information. It describes the third case recently reported in our neighbourhood as a man in his 30s who was exposed to COVID-19 on Tuesday of last week in a healthcare setting (such as a medical or dental office, but not a hospital), and tested positive on Saturday.

Today's chart is a weekly one that shows how many new sporadic cases there were in each Toronto neighbourhood. The northwestern neighbourhoods have caught up with the waterfront, and neighbourhoods adjacent to the waterfront are starting to see high numbers of cases. You can interact with it here:

Nine more cases were reported in seven Toronto schools, bringing us up to 25 cases in 23 schools. Across the province, it's 180 and 153. Those numbers are doubling every two school days, which if sustained would see every school infected two weeks from now. I'm trying to remember whether we're trying to make the students sick, or the staff, or was it their extended families?

Stay safe.

2020-09-22

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Israel (116HI→137HI), Spain (189HI→189HI), Alabama (395HI→395HI), U.S. (496HI→487HI), California (691HI→680HI), Louisiana (485HI→758HI), South Africa (1468HI→1468HI), New York (1610HI→1615HI), France (14→13), Malta (28→29), Denmark (41→41), Austria (42→43), U.K. (49→46), Toronto (76→69), Iran (94→90), Canada (123→121), Italy (135→132), Ontario (151→139), Indonesia (144→143), Poland (154→151), Germany (170→169), Turkey (181→182), Norway (170→185), Malaysia (737→627), China (32204→32204)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Toronto, Iran, Ontario

Worse: U.K., Canada, Italy, Poland

The same: France, Indonesia, Germany

Better: Spain, Malta, Denmark, Austria, Turkey, Norway

Much better: Israel

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Romania (54, no new data, 45.9%), Singapore (81, no new data, 2.3%), New Zealand (140, no new data, 6.6%), South Korea (231, no new data, 33.2%), Australia (283, no new data, 20.6%), Mexico (628, no new data, 57.3%), Thailand (1185, no new data, 7.5%), Brazil (1244, no new data, 71.4%), Japan (1370, no new data, 40.5%), India (4058→1378, 95.9%), Sweden (3870, no new data, 86.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Grenada, Holy See (eradicated); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (9, 0.0%); Brunei (11, 0.0%); Timor-Leste (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 2.3%); Burundi (14, 9.2%); Cambodia (14, 1.1%); Dominica (14, 42.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 16.3%); Eritrea (14, 42.8%); Fiji (14, 32.7%); Kosovo (14, 77.6%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mauritius (14, 7.1%); Nicaragua (14, 100.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Suriname (17, 11.6%); Zambia (25, 9.6%); San Marino (31, 4.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (34, 4.0%); Mauritania (94, 8.9%); Egypt (100, 17.8%); Botswana (112, 76.3%); Cyprus (134, 41.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (138, 9.4%); Eswatini (139, 33.0%); Sri Lanka (141, 19.6%); Comoros (176, 12.5%); Papua New Guinea (188, 61.6%); Congo (Kinshasa) (206, 8.9%); Monaco (207, 56.7%); Belize (211, 79.5%); El Salvador (244, 52.9%); Jordan (249, 78.0%); Senegal (265, 67.4%); Saudi Arabia (274, 22.6%); Philippines (325, 66.1%); Bhutan (338, 78.8%); Vietnam (364, 17.5%); Kuwait (389, 53.4%); Ecuador (390, 40.9%); Venezuela (408, 83.1%); Argentina (419, 88.3%); Cuba (524, 66.3%); Maldives (534, 48.5%); Panama (542, 87.0%); Yemen (566, 35.7%); Chile (584, 16.9%); Kazakhstan (622, 10.5%); Liberia (624, 7.8%); Croatia (643, 72.2%); Haiti (651, 65.1%); Sudan (759, 84.9%); Ghana (839, 8.0%); Syria (913, 90.8%); Morocco (968, 89.2%); Rwanda (983, 66.4%); Gabon (1005, 29.7%); Azerbaijan (1271, 21.6%); Bolivia (1358, 79.5%); Zimbabwe (1465, 53.7%); Iraq (1477, 96.9%); Mali (1816, 75.9%); Gambia (1849, 64.2%); Kyrgyzstan (2013, 21.0%); Bangladesh (2053, 83.9%); Ethiopia (2060, 86.5%); Malawi (3168, 72.2%); Dominican Republic (3590, 72.7%); Qatar (5212, 9.3%); Uruguay (6141, 81.5%); Guinea-Bissau (8834, 77.7%); Moldova (60153, 90.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (12): MS (68, 24.6%); NC (159, 49.2%); AR (340, 80.0%); VT (389, 18.9%); NH (587, 15.8%); HI (689, 81.0%); MI (801, 94.6%); OH (1013, 73.3%); DE (10322, 99.2%); WA (12079, 99.6%); IA (38675, 96.1%); TN (56700, 37.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); PE (14, 5.0%); BC (158, 74.1%)

Active cases in British Columbia took a steep drop today from 2,009 to 1,488, as the government declared a record 617 cases recovered in one day. The other three western provinces continued to see steady increases in active cases, and Atlantic and Northern cases remained in single digits per province and territory. Quebec now has 3,362 active cases, currently doubling every 16 days.

In Ontario, we now have 3,578 active cases. As our second wave picks up speed, we passed a landmark on September 18th, when the number of active cases (2,881) exceeded the number of fatalities (then 2,826, now 2,832). Today, we saw 51 new cases in schools, bringing the school case count up to 141. So far, only two of the 116 schools reporting cases have closed. We saw 478 new cases altogether province-wide, making today the 16th worst day this year, and the worst day in 96 days.

Today's chart shows the start of our school COVID-19 statistics. The most recent jump in Ontario is alarming, but could just be a random blip - it feels a little early for these curves to be shifting from linear to more clearly exponential growth. You can interact with the chart here.

Media and government officials are gradually sounding more concerned. Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, was widely quoted today saying "Canada is at a crossroads", and "We don't want it to go up a giant ski hill", while still calling for more individual action that is clearly not coming, rather than the government controls that worked the first time. I have trouble visualising the crossroads at the foot of a ski hill; the analogy that comes to my mind is that we've skidded our nation off an icy road and into a frozen lake, had a lockdown winch us barely back above the surface, and then had the tow truck driver fall asleep at the wheel, leaving us sinking back into the water while being told that we should take individual action to save the car.

In Toronto, we had 153 new cases today, a fifth straight 100+ day, which last happened in early June. On the bright side, both our sons are more or less safely enrolled in the TDSB's online virtual school programme that started only two weeks late today, and their first day of classes went smoothly. One teacher, who to be fair was not assigned his class until last night, took until 45 minutes before the afternoon session to launch his virtual classroom, but when he did, it was fine. News reports said that opening virtual classrooms continues to be limited by the school board's ability to recruit the right teachers, but that they are nearing the end of the process.

Stay safe.

See archive for earlier commentary.