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COVID-19 New Case Rate vs. Proportion Infected

COVID-19 semilog phase diagram data visualisation

To suggest improvements or report errors, please email John Chew at poslfit@gmail.com.

Commentary

I’ve been posting commentary on Facebook about the “days to 1%” line in my Google Sheet linked above. This page contains the most recent entries.

Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last four days) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases.

2020-06-03

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (25→30), Alabama (40→40), California (46→48), U.S. (46→49), South Africa (50→57), Sweden (64→64), Mexico (76→74), Iran (95→93), India (93→94), Ontario (132→123), Indonesia (198→208), Poland (193→210), Israel (346→318), Spain (321→406), France (296→541), South Korea (1253→1172), Norway (1731→1891), Australia (1877→2116), China (63379→77785)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Ontario, Israel, South Korea

Worse: Mexico, Iran

Better: Alabama, California, U.S., Sweden, India, Indonesia, Poland, Norway

Much better: Brazil, South Africa, Spain, France, Australia, China

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (3→2, 0%), Malta (51→39, 21.1%), Austria (75→83, 4.9%), Thailand (392→84, 4.1%), Denmark (405→174, 17.4%), Japan (247→207, 15.2%), Louisiana (158→220, 34.4%), Germany (406→251, 11.9%), Italy (305→309, 47.2%), Malaysia (6050→467, 49.8%), Singapore (615→506, 87.9%), Toronto (623→584, 63.5%), Romania (762→870, 65.7%), U.K. (1661→1946, 86.5%), Turkey (1573→2236, 44.3%), Canada (9369→4283, 99.0%), New York (4237→10310, 70.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Montenegro (4, 0.0%); Taiwan (23, 3.4%); Vietnam (33, 19.0%); Niger (36, 9.2%); Croatia (46, 5.2%); Zambia (50, 27.1%); Morocco (54, 38.7%); Luxembourg (57, 2.8%); Chad (66, 43.8%); Mongolia (73, 72.7%); Switzerland (93, 3.2%); Slovakia (94, 14.8%); Equatorial Guinea (129, 79.9%); Eswatini (132, 70.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (142, 91.7%); Syria (174, 88.2%); Qatar (177, 78.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (223, 46.6%); Togo (224, 83.3%); Jordan (289, 79.7%); Guyana (311, 90.8%); Estonia (342, 19.3%); Sierra Leone (362, 84.1%); Panama (369, 88.9%); Tunisia (374, 13.6%); Georgia (389, 50.0%); Dominican Republic (396, 89.9%); Kosovo (423, 36.8%); Kuwait (435, 89.3%); Algeria (568, 91.5%); South Sudan (578, 92.2%); Lithuania (609, 49.5%); Saudi Arabia (620, 78.9%); Bulgaria (679, 83.5%); Hungary (795, 78.5%); Latvia (924, 66.9%); Serbia (1009, 64.0%); Uruguay (1223, 37.0%); Guinea (1372, 94.7%); Guinea-Bissau (1478, 70.3%); Tajikistan (1789, 96.9%); Gabon (1846, 98.3%); Belgium (2304, 68.8%); San Marino (3419, 63.6%); Ecuador (3606, 60.9%); Czechia (3638, 57.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories: MP (27, 45.5%); ND (109, 51.9%); MN (111, 72.1%); IN (151, 75.8%); VT (154, 9.6%); MI (165, 69.7%); MS (249, 75.5%); WY (358, 89.7%); ME (410, 89.2%); SD (659, 72.9%); NC (727, 79.3%); CT (1092, 85.1%); WV (1381, 98.0%); DC (1587, 93.3%); PA (1624, 73.8%); WI (1929, 97.4%); NJ (2051, 79.0%); DE (2674, 92.1%); KS (2782, 80.5%); RI (2804, 91.0%); MD (4264, 97.2%); IL (6455, 93.5%); NM (12963, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 1.1%); SK (28, 15.8%); AB (54, 12.1%); MB (82, 6.2%); BC (249, 28.9%); QC (1099, 91.9%)

Brazil's improvement is part of its weekly reporting cycle. Week-on-week, it's still worsening, with the days-to-one-percent being 36 a week ago (and 30 now).

Iran has gone in a week from fewer than 2,000 new cases a day to more than 3,000 new cases a day.

Ontario had a third straight day of increasing new case numbers: 323, 326, 404, 446. There were only three days last month when we had as many as 446 new cases in a day, but today at least it could be part of the 700 new cases that were discovered yesterday. If the numbers go back down by the end of the week, we should know.

Toronto also has had three straight increasing new case days: 123, 150, 164, 175; and I would reason the same way about those rediscovered missing cases, some of which must be from Toronto. New cases were reported for the first time since neighbourhood records were published in three more neighbourhoods: East End-Danforth, Lawrence Park North, and Long Branch. That first one is two neighbourhoods away from ours, so it feels like it's getting closer. No changes in cases reported in 13 of 140 neighbourhoods: Alderwood, Bayview Village, Blake-Jones, Bridle Path-Sunnybrooke-York Mills, Danforth Village - Toronto, Eringate-Centennial-West Deane, Kingsway South, Lambton Baby Point, North Riverdale, Playter Estates-Danforth, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Woodbine Corridor, Yonge-Eglinton.

Among the countries in the world with the ten largest numbers of active cases (U.S., Brazil, Russia, India, Peru, U.K., Chile, Spain, France, and Pakistan), the U.K. is alone in appearing to have active numbers that are trending downward. In the next ten (Italy, Bangladesh, Canada, Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Colombia, Egypt), Italy, Canada, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are trending downward. The first ten countries account for about 3/4 of the cases in the world, and then next ten about 1/9.

Today's graphic shows the 18 countries in the world with at least 1 in 1,000 of their population currently an active COVID-19 case, whose active case numbers are still increasing.

Stay safe.

2020-06-02

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (25→30), Alabama (40→40), California (46→48), U.S. (46→49), South Africa (50→57), Sweden (64→64), Mexico (76→74), Iran (95→93), India (93→94), Ontario (132→123), Indonesia (198→208), Poland (193→210), Israel (346→318), Spain (321→406), France (296→541), South Korea (1253→1172), Norway (1731→1891), Australia (1877→2116), China (63379→77785)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Ontario, Israel, South Korea

Worse: Mexico, Iran

Better: Alabama, California, U.S., Sweden, India, Indonesia, Poland, Norway

Much better: Brazil, South Africa, Spain, France, Australia, China

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (3→2, 0%), Malta (51→39, 21.1%), Austria (75→83, 4.9%), Thailand (392→84, 4.1%), Denmark (405→174, 17.4%), Japan (247→207, 15.2%), Louisiana (158→220, 34.4%), Germany (406→251, 11.9%), Italy (305→309, 47.2%), Malaysia (6050→467, 49.8%), Singapore (615→506, 87.9%), Toronto (623→584, 63.5%), Romania (762→870, 65.7%), U.K. (1661→1946, 86.5%), Turkey (1573→2236, 44.3%), Canada (9369→4283, 99.0%), New York (4237→10310, 70.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Montenegro (4, 0.0%); Taiwan (23, 3.4%); Vietnam (33, 19.0%); Niger (36, 9.2%); Croatia (46, 5.2%); Zambia (50, 27.1%); Morocco (54, 38.7%); Luxembourg (57, 2.8%); Chad (66, 43.8%); Mongolia (73, 72.7%); Switzerland (93, 3.2%); Slovakia (94, 14.8%); Equatorial Guinea (129, 79.9%); Eswatini (132, 70.5%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (142, 91.7%); Syria (174, 88.2%); Qatar (177, 78.4%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (223, 46.6%); Togo (224, 83.3%); Jordan (289, 79.7%); Guyana (311, 90.8%); Estonia (342, 19.3%); Sierra Leone (362, 84.1%); Panama (369, 88.9%); Tunisia (374, 13.6%); Georgia (389, 50.0%); Dominican Republic (396, 89.9%); Kosovo (423, 36.8%); Kuwait (435, 89.3%); Algeria (568, 91.5%); South Sudan (578, 92.2%); Lithuania (609, 49.5%); Saudi Arabia (620, 78.9%); Bulgaria (679, 83.5%); Hungary (795, 78.5%); Latvia (924, 66.9%); Serbia (1009, 64.0%); Uruguay (1223, 37.0%); Guinea (1372, 94.7%); Guinea-Bissau (1478, 70.3%); Tajikistan (1789, 96.9%); Gabon (1846, 98.3%); Belgium (2304, 68.8%); San Marino (3419, 63.6%); Ecuador (3606, 60.9%); Czechia (3638, 57.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories: MP (27, 45.5%); ND (109, 51.9%); MN (111, 72.1%); IN (151, 75.8%); VT (154, 9.6%); MI (165, 69.7%); MS (249, 75.5%); WY (358, 89.7%); ME (410, 89.2%); SD (659, 72.9%); NC (727, 79.3%); CT (1092, 85.1%); WV (1381, 98.0%); DC (1587, 93.3%); PA (1624, 73.8%); WI (1929, 97.4%); NJ (2051, 79.0%); DE (2674, 92.1%); KS (2782, 80.5%); RI (2804, 91.0%); MD (4264, 97.2%); IL (6455, 93.5%); NM (12963, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NL (14, 1.0%); NS (14, 1.1%); SK (28, 15.8%); AB (54, 12.1%); MB (82, 6.2%); BC (249, 28.9%); QC (1099, 91.9%)

Brazil's improvement is part of its weekly reporting cycle. Week-on-week, it's still worsening, with the days-to-one-percent being 36 a week ago (and 30 now).

Iran has gone in a week from fewer than 2,000 new cases a day to more than 3,000 new cases a day.

Ontario had a third straight day of increasing new case numbers: 323, 326, 404, 446. There were only three days last month when we had as many as 446 new cases in a day, but today at least it could be part of the 700 new cases that were discovered yesterday. If the numbers go back down by the end of the week, we should know.

Toronto also has had three straight increasing new case days: 123, 150, 164, 175; and I would reason the same way about those rediscovered missing cases, some of which must be from Toronto. New cases were reported for the first time since neighbourhood records were published in three more neighbourhoods: East End-Danforth, Lawrence Park North, and Long Branch. That first one is two neighbourhoods away from ours, so it feels like it's getting closer. No changes in cases reported in 13 of 140 neighbourhoods: Alderwood, Bayview Village, Blake-Jones, Bridle Path-Sunnybrooke-York Mills, Danforth Village - Toronto, Eringate-Centennial-West Deane, Kingsway South, Lambton Baby Point, North Riverdale, Playter Estates-Danforth, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Woodbine Corridor, Yonge-Eglinton.

Among the countries in the world with the ten largest numbers of active cases (U.S., Brazil, Russia, India, Peru, U.K., Chile, Spain, France, and Pakistan), the U.K. is alone in appearing to have active numbers that are trending downward. In the next ten (Italy, Bangladesh, Canada, Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Colombia, Egypt), Italy, Canada, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are trending downward. The first ten countries account for about 3/4 of the cases in the world, and then next ten about 1/9.

Today's graphic shows the 18 countries in the world with at least 1 in 1,000 of their population currently an active COVID-19 case, whose active case numbers are still increasing.

Stay safe.

2020-06-01

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (25→25), Alabama (40→40), California (46→46), U.S. (46→46), South Africa (50→50), Sweden (64→64), India (93→93), Iran (105→95), Poland (195→193), Indonesia (178→198), France (149→296), Spain (209→321), Israel (432→346), South Korea (1091→1253), Norway (1271→1731), Australia (1808→1877), China (77782→63379)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Iran, Israel, China

Worse: Poland

Better: Brazil, Alabama, California, U.S., South Africa, Sweden, India, Australia

Much better: Indonesia, France, Spain, South Korea, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (4→3, 0%), Malta (48→51, 27.0%), Austria (65→75, 5.0%), Louisiana (new→158, 32.3%), Japan (172→247, 16.1%), Italy (237→305, 48.9%), Thailand (244→392, 4.1%), Denmark (296→405, 18.6%), Germany (514→406, 12.9%), Singapore (781→615, 89.0%), Toronto (new→623, 63.0%), Romania (387→762, 65.6%), Turkey (1236→1573, 44.6%), U.K. (1533→1661, 86.6%), New York (4145→4237, 70.7%), Malaysia (626→6050, 51.5%), Canada (18097→9369, 99.4%), Ontario (2966→24539, 80.8%), Mexico (new→56496, 96.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Dominica, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Montenegro (5, 0.0%); Iceland (14, 0.2%); Andorra (21, 3.8%); Slovenia (25, 0.9%); Taiwan (26, 3.4%); Niger (31, 9.6%); Gambia (37, 33.3%); Luxembourg (49, 2.9%); Zambia (50, 27.1%); Vietnam (51, 22.2%); Croatia (59, 6.2%); Chad (81, 46.2%); Slovakia (93, 15.2%); Switzerland (110, 3.1%); Uruguay (122, 37.3%); Morocco (126, 53.7%); Estonia (134, 20.1%); Cameroon (151, 78.7%); Tunisia (153, 13.4%); Sierra Leone (158, 78.2%); Eswatini (166, 72.7%); Mongolia (227, 72.7%); Guyana (228, 92.0%); Qatar (248, 80.9%); Jordan (254, 81.7%); Togo (295, 85.0%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (302, 48.0%); Panama (333, 83.7%); Saudi Arabia (353, 77.7%); Ecuador (358, 57.3%); South Sudan (364, 92.2%); Kosovo (423, 36.8%); Bulgaria (437, 83.4%); Lithuania (441, 50.9%); Syria (487, 94.7%); Dominican Republic (531, 90.1%); Hungary (539, 77.2%); Greece (636, 61.5%); Algeria (796, 93.5%); Serbia (1075, 64.0%); San Marino (1227, 63.6%); Kuwait (1256, 92.5%); Burkina Faso (1489, 23.1%); West Bank and Gaza (1489, 33.9%); Mozambique (2208, 96.0%); Gabon (2333, 92.7%); Belgium (2484, 69.1%); Czechia (3611, 56.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states: MP (15, 36.4%); VT (63, 8.5%); ND (105, 55.9%); IN (155, 76.1%); MI (180, 68.9%); MN (301, 83.9%); MS (309, 71.0%); WY (626, 89.7%); ME (684, 94.4%); CT (739, 85.1%); PA (869, 73.4%); MA (1818, 84.7%); IL (2247, 92.6%); RI (2315, 91.0%); NJ (2580, 79.2%); DE (2631, 93.2%); NC (2993, 74.6%); DC (3403, 96.0%); IA (74327, 97.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); NS (34, 2.8%); MB (36, 5.2%); AB (55, 12.8%); SK (74, 22.5%); BC (356, 31.4%); QC (1515, 92.8%)

I had to reenter New Zealand's number manually, as they've reached a stage in their recovery that revealed a bug in my code. They have had no new cases now for 11 days, and have one last remaining active case. Well done.

Today's graphic celebrates New Zealand, by plotting its trajectory on a new cases per active case vs. active cases per population phase diagram, compared to Canada, Italy, Japan and the U.S.

CBC News reported, and Ontario Health did not dispute that approximately 700 positive test results at a western Toronto hospital network were not reported to public health authorities over the past several weeks, and will likely result in a technical bump in new cases here as the numbers enter the database. The test samples were collected at the William Osler Hospital Network in Etobicoke and Brampton, and sent to Mount Sinai Hospital for analysis. WOH staff mistakenly thought that MSH staff would report results to public health.

Numbers are in fact up already today in Ontario, but not in Toronto. 3,834 cases now in Ontario, up from yesterday's 3,783. In Toronto, we had a third straight day's decline, from 2,005 eventually to today's 1,880, 63% of our peak and dropping at a rate fast enough to see us theoretically clear of COVID-19 in a mere two years. In Ontario, we are back up over 400 new cases today for the first time in more than a week; in Toronto, new cases have risen for a second day, so the active cases will start rising too, unless recoveries and deaths rise miraculously too.

There was media concern about the possible effect of recent mass public protests against police violence against black people; I did not see any photos however of protesters who weren't masked and maintaining a safe social distance.

Of further concern was the inadequacy of the Ontario Dental Association's response to the provincial government's permission for them to reopen. There is reportedly no way for dentists to obtain N95 masks and other professional PPE, which are being reserved for hospital use. Dentists are also being instructed to screen patients by questionnaire, despite the demonstrated inability of questionnaires to detect asymptomatic patients who are shedding SARS-CoV-2.

There were also reports that a large majority of community-acquired cases of COVID-19 were being spread in illegally large family gatherings, and in workplaces with inadequate protections for employees; the chances of contracting the disease randomly on the street sound quite low.

Three cases showed up in Toronto neighbourhoods which had shown no recent COVID-19 activity: Leaside-Bennington, Milliken, and Steeles. 16 neighbourhoods have shown no activity since neighbourhood stats started being published last week. In the most dangerous neighbourhood in the city, Thistletown-Beaumond Heights, cumulative confirmed cases have risen from 32 to 48 in five days. (Anyone else who is scraping the Toronto neighbourhood COVID-19 data might want to take note that the spellings of four neighbourhood names changed today.)

Stay safe.

2020-05-31

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (14→13), Brazil (24→25), Alabama (35→40), California (53→46), U.S. (48→46), South Africa (51→50), Sweden (64→64), Toronto (66→66), Mexico (67→71), India (95→93), Iran (105→105), France (201→149), Indonesia (175→178), Poland (169→195), Spain (187→209), Israel (432→432), South Korea (851→1091), Norway (1020→1271), Australia (1946→1808), China (213885→77782)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: California, France, Australia, China

Worse: U.S., India

The same: Louisiana, South Africa

Better: Brazil, Sweden, Toronto, Mexico, Iran, Indonesia, Israel

Much better: Alabama, Poland, Spain, South Korea, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14→14, 0.1%), Malta (57→48, 27.7%), Austria (71→65, 5.0%), Japan (137→172, 17.0%), Italy (237→237, 49.7%), Thailand (new→244, 4.2%), Denmark (267→296, 19.2%), Romania (365→387, 66.2%), Germany (367→514, 13.1%), Malaysia (332→626, 52.0%), Singapore (2506→781, 91.5%), Turkey (1136→1236, 44.8%), U.K. (1717→1533, 87.1%), Ontario (2100→2966, 79.1%), New York (3612→4145, 70.7%), Canada (new→18097, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Dominica, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, Seychelles, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Saint Kitts and Nevis (1, 0.0%); Montenegro (6, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Iceland (14, 0.2%); Lesotho (14, 50.0%); Andorra (23, 4.5%); Cyprus (35, 27.5%); Niger (36, 10.8%); Gambia (37, 33.3%); Burkina Faso (41, 23.1%); Slovenia (42, 1.0%); Taiwan (57, 4.5%); Mongolia (65, 70.0%); Croatia (66, 6.7%); Luxembourg (70, 3.4%); Cameroon (80, 65.7%); Chad (89, 55.5%); Slovakia (96, 15.4%); Switzerland (116, 3.1%); Estonia (127, 20.1%); Sierra Leone (133, 82.0%); Finland (147, 48.3%); Uruguay (179, 38.3%); Saudi Arabia (221, 77.7%); Cuba (245, 18.0%); Eswatini (256, 71.2%); Morocco (274, 66.4%); Guinea-Bissau (275, 64.4%); Tunisia (282, 12.8%); Kosovo (286, 36.8%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (317, 49.3%); Panama (322, 76.0%); Lithuania (361, 50.5%); South Sudan (364, 92.2%); Hungary (460, 76.8%); Syria (479, 93.4%); Bulgaria (490, 84.6%); Qatar (492, 86.2%); Greece (577, 61.5%); Ecuador (588, 58.5%); Algeria (947, 94.7%); San Marino (1012, 63.6%); Dominican Republic (1018, 90.8%); Serbia (1248, 64.9%); Congo (Brazzaville) (2357, 98.9%); Belgium (3831, 69.4%); Czechia (9016, 57.9%); Moldova (29776, 99.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states: MP (27, 45.5%); VT (75, 9.4%); HI (98, 8.8%); IN (184, 78.1%); MI (191, 68.4%); OK (227, 56.6%); ND (258, 64.1%); PA (363, 73.0%); NH (430, 73.5%); CT (586, 85.0%); ME (1332, 95.8%); DE (1389, 94.3%); ID (1581, 41.6%); MA (1690, 84.7%); MN (1848, 91.0%); IL (1982, 94.0%); RI (3733, 91.4%); WY (5624, 90.9%); DC (13242, 97.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); MB (36, 5.2%); NS (58, 3.2%); AB (189, 18.7%); BC (384, 31.8%); QC (2515, 94.0%)

There's a typo today in the CMAJ database, showing a negative number of active cases in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan should still be on that last days to eradication list, but it's hard to tell absent accurate data.

Today's graphic shows those countries who have a lot of people still actively infected (more than 1 in 1,000), where that number is still increasing day by day: Oman, Armenia, Brazil, Djibouti, Peru, Chile, Sao Tome & Principe, Sweden, U.A.E., Spain, France, Maldives, Belarus, Bahrain, Portugal, Russia, Netherlands, Belgium, U.K., U.S., Kuwait. In this list, I'm reading roughly in rows left to right down the chart, so the ones higher up the list are infecting people faster the ones lower down the list. These look to me like countries where it would be critically important to stay indoors and socially distant, because there are a lot of infected people spreading quickly, and your chances of meeting someone and getting infected are highest.

In brighter news, as expected, Canada tentatively eased back over the top of the curve today. Back over, because it had looked like we had reached a peak active caseload of 33,574 on May 16th, but then things blew up and now we look like we're coming down from a slightly higher peak of 33,940. I hope this is the highest peak.

Thailand too had had a brief flare up, but is back on a downward track again, due to a small outbreak among Thai travellers returning from foreign countries.

In Toronto, there have been no reported changes in cumulative case numbers in 19 of the 140 neighbourhoods into which we are officially divided since the launch of official local statistics last Wednesday. I am very fortunate to be living in one of these relatively safe areas: Alderwood, Bayview Village, Blake-Jones, Bridle Path-Sunnybrooke-York Mills, Danforth Village - Toronto, East End-Danforth, Eringate-Centennial-West Deane, Kingsway South, Lambton Baby Point, Lawrence Park North, Leaside-Bennington, Long Branch, Milliken, North Riverdale, Playter Estates-Danforth, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Steeles, Woodbine Corridor, Yonge-Eglinton. Total active cases in Toronto are down for a second day, from 1,964 to 1,905, still more than we had back on May 8th, but it's good that it's decreasing.

Ontario had its third consecutive daily decrease in active cases, bringing it all the way from 4,004 to 3,783 cases, or about where we were last Mother's Day, May 10th.

Stay safe.

https://www.poslfit.com/covid19

2020-05-30

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today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (17→14), Brazil (28→24), Alabama (35→35), U.S. (56→48), South Africa (55→51), California (59→53), Sweden (98→64), Mexico (63→67), India (100→95), Iran (111→105), Canada (148→148), Poland (164→169), Indonesia (182→175), Spain (176→187), France (201→201), South Korea (878→851), Norway (1090→1020), Thailand (1948→2071)

Compared to yesterday, here's how these regions are doing.

Much worse: Louisiana, Brazil, U.S., South Africa, California, Sweden, India, Iran, Indonesia, South Korea, Norway

Better: Alabama, Mexico, Canada, Poland, Spain, France, Thailand

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (14→14, 0.1%), Malta (82→57, 31.1%), Austria (167→71, 5.3%), Japan (105→137, 17.5%), Italy (254→237, 51.6%), Denmark (328→267, 19.2%), Malaysia (new→332, 50.7%), Romania (350→365, 67.5%), Germany (459→367, 13.4%), Israel (307→637, 23.0%), China (254→751, 0.2%), Turkey (817→1136, 45.1%), U.K. (23590→1717, 87.7%), Ontario (new→2100, 80.6%), Singapore (1413→2506, 94.7%), New York (5132→3612, 70.9%), Toronto (new→4660, 65.8%), Australia (new→13041, 10.0%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries: Belize, Dominica, Eritrea, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, Timor-Leste (eradicated); Seychelles (1, 0.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (2, 0.0%); Montenegro (7, 0.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Lesotho (14, 50.0%); Laos (16, 23.1%); Slovenia (18, 1.1%); Gambia (21, 33.3%); Barbados (26, 17.3%); Andorra (28, 4.9%); Zambia (33, 43.2%); Cyprus (35, 27.5%); Burkina Faso (53, 23.1%); Taiwan (53, 5.3%); Ireland (57, 10.2%); Chad (61, 56.0%); Mongolia (69, 70.7%); Cameroon (80, 65.7%); Niger (87, 14.5%); Panama (94, 68.9%); Georgia (97, 48.7%); Croatia (105, 7.5%); Estonia (112, 20.0%); Slovakia (129, 16.6%); Switzerland (135, 3.7%); Cuba (145, 17.3%); Vietnam (159, 31.0%); Finland (164, 46.9%); Bhutan (170, 85.2%); Luxembourg (182, 4.1%); Uruguay (223, 38.6%); Morocco (245, 67.4%); Lithuania (271, 50.8%); Cabo Verde (290, 74.6%); Saudi Arabia (290, 83.6%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (406, 50.8%); Kosovo (423, 36.8%); Guinea-Bissau (451, 66.4%); Hungary (454, 76.7%); Bulgaria (461, 85.9%); Sierra Leone (487, 88.9%); San Marino (695, 63.8%); Greece (725, 62.2%); Czechia (834, 57.3%); Ecuador (1078, 57.6%); Algeria (1208, 97.2%); Syria (1513, 98.7%); Bahamas (1973, 65.9%); Serbia (3495, 66.0%); Belgium (4026, 69.5%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states: MP (27, 45.5%); ID (59, 40.5%); OK (67, 54.0%); HI (69, 8.5%); VT (144, 10.1%); ND (147, 63.4%); MI (182, 66.0%); GU (379, 26.4%); PA (383, 75.2%); NH (474, 78.3%); CT (583, 87.1%); DE (821, 94.7%); MN (839, 94.3%); ME (843, 96.4%); WY (924, 88.9%); MA (930, 85.0%); TN (1014, 89.6%); IL (1707, 94.0%); KS (1796, 81.6%); OR (1796, 90.2%); DC (3511, 96.8%); AR (3737, 87.5%); RI (34095, 92.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces: NT, PE, YT (eradicated); MB (20, 4.7%); SK (56, 26.3%); AB (171, 19.3%); BC (198, 31.8%); QC (4867, 94.7%)

Brazil continues to worsen significantly day by day. They recorded over 30,000 new cases for the first time, and their four-day average new case rate has slowly risen every day for the last four days, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

The United States extends to four days its run of increasing numbers of new cases reported daily, from 16,700 to 23,836.

Today's graph shows current trends on U.S. state new case rates per active case. If all were proceeding smoothly, the post-peak states ought to be seeing a gradual decline in new case rates per active case, or at least a low, steady, manageable number. Instead, in almost every state, COVID-19 is spreading more rapidly from each patient than it was before, resulting in daily increases over the last few days in the number of active cases, just like we had recently in Ontario when we started talking about reopening.

Sweden's numbers were finally updated, although they still lag by a few days. They're somewhat worse than when they last reported a week or so ago, but it's hard to say at a glance due to what looks like a strong weekly cycle of reporting variation.

Locally though, it's generally good but brief news tonight.

Toronto and Ontario have tipped back over onto the post-peak side, after trending back downward over the last four days in their active case counts. In the end, this second bump appears to have lasted just three weeks; it probably won't be the last one, but let's hope the rest will be more sporadic and smaller. Only 123 new cases in Toronto (323 in Ontario), which was fewer than the 156 official recovered cases. That was a near daily occurrence earlier (May 8-11, 13-18), but it's only the second time since then that we've got it right.

Quebec is also on the post-peak list, although with 4,867 active cases to Ontario's 3,933. That leaves almost every Canadian province and territory post-peak, with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador, where after three weeks with no active cases a travel-related case spawned a small new outbreak, a similar situation reported here yesterday in New Brunswick. (And Nunavut, which isn't on either list, because there has never been a case of COVID-19 there.) I believe there's only one more active case in Canada then there was four days ago, so if all goes well the country itself should be post-peak tomorrow.

Stay safe.

See archive for earlier commentary.