Back to Poslfit home page

COVID-19 New Case Rate vs. Proportion Infected

COVID-19 semilog phase diagram data visualisation

To suggest improvements or report errors, please email John Chew at poslfit@gmail.com.

Commentary

I’ve been posting commentary on Facebook about the “days to 1%” line in my Google Sheet linked above. This page contains the most recent entries.

Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last four days) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases. Starting on 2020-08-02, in regions where active cases are still increasing but more than 1% of the population has been infected, I show an estimate of how many days it will be until 40% of the population is infected, the point at which herd immunity might begin to slow down spread among survivors in the most optimistic scenario.

2020-08-11

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: California (246HI→206HI), Alabama (223HI→227HI), U.S. (291HI→312HI), Louisiana (291HI→315HI), New York (2033HI→2076HI), Spain (35→35), Malta (37→43), Sweden (46→55), Romania (58→60), India (61→64), Japan (118→129), France (143→133), Australia (131→141), Denmark (142→142), Poland (139→154), Indonesia (181→202), Turkey (253→253), U.K. (265→265), Norway (302→314), Germany (336→349), Italy (543→595), Thailand (3094→3390)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, France

Better: Alabama, U.S., Louisiana, Spain, Romania, India, Australia, Denmark, Turkey, U.K., Norway, Germany

Much better: Malta, Sweden, Japan, Poland, Indonesia

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Canada (new→123, 14.6%), Malaysia (197→125, 6.4%), Singapore (800→269, 39.3%), Mexico (1840→271, 74.4%), China (277→316, 3.4%), New Zealand (164→341, 2.4%), South Korea (592→394, 9.1%), Iran (1256→951, 67.6%), South Africa (1321→1263, 78.2%), Ontario (839→1302, 42.1%), Brazil (new→1750, 95.7%), Israel (1008→2465, 71.6%), Austria (new→5451, 14.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (79): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (6, 0.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (13, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 29.5%); Benin (14, 36.1%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 25.9%); Nicaragua (14, 75.2%); Niger (14, 5.3%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 23.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Taiwan (14, 11.0%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (20, 22.1%); Eritrea (40, 26.8%); Oman (62, 22.1%); Djibouti (96, 7.0%); Azerbaijan (104, 29.0%); Ghana (113, 35.9%); Luxembourg (114, 41.4%); Barbados (125, 44.2%); Ecuador (146, 32.6%); Mauritania (160, 30.1%); Belarus (165, 15.2%); Lesotho (166, 85.1%); Mongolia (172, 27.3%); Slovenia (188, 23.8%); Congo (Kinshasa) (202, 27.2%); Chad (213, 6.5%); Uruguay (215, 59.7%); Rwanda (267, 81.8%); Montenegro (268, 54.3%); Congo (Brazzaville) (291, 75.1%); Sri Lanka (348, 28.2%); Madagascar (349, 56.2%); Guatemala (389, 51.3%); Pakistan (399, 17.0%); Switzerland (405, 16.2%); Kyrgyzstan (410, 49.9%); Venezuela (413, 78.9%); Sao Tome and Principe (416, 19.4%); Uzbekistan (446, 85.0%); Liberia (460, 79.3%); Armenia (590, 57.8%); Cote d'Ivoire (609, 59.4%); Burundi (650, 76.7%); Malawi (735, 92.7%); South Sudan (748, 65.2%); Burma (753, 33.9%); Serbia (1193, 94.7%); United Arab Emirates (1235, 33.1%); Egypt (1304, 77.8%); Haiti (1305, 72.1%); Somalia (1328, 71.9%); Bulgaria (1436, 97.5%); Dominican Republic (1544, 96.3%); North Macedonia (1580, 80.8%); Saudi Arabia (1842, 52.8%); Afghanistan (2513, 68.7%); Zambia (3032, 52.2%); Zimbabwe (3617, 95.2%); Tajikistan (3976, 60.7%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3980, 99.1%); Kuwait (4033, 49.8%); Portugal (42088, 88.5%); Qatar (53788, 10.0%); Honduras (61933, 97.0%); Russia (308014, 76.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (26): NC (135, 58.1%); NH (136, 17.0%); MS (167, 69.4%); ME (217, 51.0%); VT (248, 21.2%); WY (297, 82.6%); MN (333, 56.4%); UT (389, 74.3%); AK (476, 91.2%); MT (610, 89.1%); AR (858, 92.7%); AZ (878, 90.5%); NM (925, 94.3%); OH (961, 81.3%); MI (1416, 97.0%); IA (1522, 87.4%); MO (2200, 96.6%); FL (2202, 93.1%); RI (3736, 95.9%); NE (3980, 97.4%); WI (4215, 97.0%); TX (5772, 87.4%); SC (8188, 97.9%); CO (8674, 99.4%); NV (20045, 98.8%); NJ (47761, 79.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT, PE (eradicated); NS (12, 0.0%); YT (14, 40.0%); QC (50, 9.4%); AB (267, 32.1%); SK (3839, 51.4%)

Today's chart shows all the countries of Europe, in the usual phase diagram showing cumulative cases vs. percentage change.

It was widely announced today that there were only 33 new cases of COVID-19 in Ontario today. It would be more correct to say that the number of cumulative cases in the province was 33 greater today than it was yesterday. This is because the city of Toronto, in its ongoing efforts to sanitize its data, eliminated 21 more duplicate cases from its database. We won't know how many new cases there were in Toronto until tomorrow at the earliest, but if we assumed a typical 20 or so cases for the city, we would get a more typical provincial total of 33+21+20=74.

In any case, that brings us down 42 cases to 952 active cases in the province, a new post-peak record.

There were no cases in the North at all, today or yesterday. The Southwestern District saw 8 cases; 7 in Ottawa, and 7 in Peel. It was a beautifully quiet day.

In Toronto, the public school board has started calling families to ask if they would like their children to study online or in a seemingly impractical 15-student half-day in-school cohorts in the first so-called quadmester. Our older son has so far opted for studying from home, and looks forward to learning which of his selected courses will be involved.

Stay safe.

2020-08-10

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Alabama (223HI→223HI), California (273HI→246HI), Brazil (222HI→272HI), Louisiana (169HI→291HI), U.S. (285HI→291HI), New York (1856HI→2033HI), Spain (28→35), Malta (37→37), Sweden (56→46), Romania (51→58), India (62→61), Japan (103→118), Australia (121→131), Poland (133→139), Denmark (151→142), France (143→143), Indonesia (175→181), Turkey (255→253), U.K. (256→265), Austria (263→300), Norway (297→302), Germany (332→336), Canada (435→350), Italy (499→543), Thailand (2370→3094)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: California, Sweden, Denmark, Canada

Worse: Turkey

The same: India

Better: Alabama, U.S., Malta, Australia, Poland, France, Indonesia, U.K., Norway, Germany

Much better: Brazil, Louisiana, Spain, Romania, Japan, Austria

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (360→164, 2.3%), Malaysia (184→197, 6.7%), China (261→277, 3.4%), South Korea (207→592, 9.7%), Singapore (new→800, 42.8%), Ontario (443→839, 41.9%), Israel (954→1008, 70.9%), Toronto (468→1018, 8.7%), Iran (3220→1256, 68.5%), South Africa (700→1321, 79.5%), Mexico (new→1840, 81.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (78): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (7, 0.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (14, 29.5%); Benin (14, 36.1%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (14, 99.2%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Chad (14, 7.2%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Monaco (14, 25.9%); Nicaragua (14, 75.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 23.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (26, 22.1%); Eritrea (49, 29.0%); Cambodia (67, 36.4%); Botswana (72, 57.4%); Oman (84, 27.4%); Congo (Kinshasa) (102, 27.4%); Azerbaijan (103, 31.4%); Ghana (114, 38.8%); Lesotho (115, 76.8%); Barbados (125, 44.2%); Belarus (129, 15.0%); Djibouti (132, 7.5%); Montenegro (169, 54.1%); Mongolia (172, 27.3%); Mauritania (173, 30.5%); Jordan (178, 18.3%); Sri Lanka (183, 26.8%); Burma (195, 33.9%); Ecuador (231, 32.0%); Sao Tome and Principe (253, 19.4%); Pakistan (265, 17.0%); Uruguay (296, 63.0%); Armenia (332, 58.5%); Croatia (366, 48.6%); Cote d'Ivoire (371, 60.1%); Rwanda (376, 85.2%); Madagascar (422, 58.4%); Kyrgyzstan (494, 51.0%); Liberia (495, 79.4%); Burkina Faso (680, 45.8%); Uzbekistan (718, 87.7%); United Arab Emirates (798, 33.2%); Guatemala (896, 54.8%); Kuwait (908, 48.7%); Slovenia (943, 27.8%); Egypt (1048, 78.2%); Zambia (1337, 51.5%); Luxembourg (1349, 55.3%); Dominican Republic (1362, 96.8%); Saudi Arabia (1502, 53.1%); Somalia (1981, 73.1%); Serbia (1985, 96.1%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1990, 82.3%); Russia (2335, 76.2%); Malawi (2978, 92.8%); Switzerland (3026, 16.1%); Qatar (3149, 9.9%); Haiti (3439, 72.8%); Portugal (3555, 88.0%); Czechia (3565, 97.9%); South Sudan (4343, 68.1%); Kazakhstan (7408, 75.0%); Honduras (30847, 96.6%); Afghanistan (35169, 69.9%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): NH (175, 17.6%); UT (329, 75.0%); VT (394, 21.7%); WY (449, 87.2%); AZ (733, 91.0%); ME (949, 54.2%); AK (962, 93.8%); MT (1132, 91.8%); MI (1225, 93.8%); OH (1587, 83.6%); PA (1647, 78.3%); DE (1935, 97.5%); NM (1946, 96.9%); TX (1981, 86.7%); FL (1996, 93.6%); CT (2366, 83.1%); CO (2397, 98.3%); MO (2759, 97.9%); NE (3550, 96.8%); IA (5164, 91.3%); WI (6237, 97.3%); NJ (20341, 79.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT, PE (eradicated); NS (13, 0.0%); NB (14, 8.2%); NL (14, 1.0%); QC (52, 9.4%); SK (109, 51.4%); AB (2250, 34.9%)

Canada's worsening numbers today are just the result of Western provinces reporting their weekend cases, and not something to worry about.

The number of post-peak countries dipped back down below 80 for the first time in five days; this past week was the first time it had made it so high. The number of post-peak U.S. states and territories also seems to be gradually on its way upward. Today will mark a week at 18 or above, where the previous week's high was 14.

Ontario saw 115 new cases today, ending a weeklong streak of under-100 days. We were also up 13 active cases to 994, breaking a 12-day streak of declining active cases. 20 (up from 6) in Ottawa, 19 (17) in Peel, 7 (9) in York, 16 (25) in Toronto, 5 (0) in Chatham-Kent, 12 (4) in Windsor-Essex, 5 (2) in Halton, 11 (0) in Niagara, 5 (0) in Waterloo. Just looking at these numbers, it looks like there have been some outbreaks among migrant farmworkers again.

Toronto had 48 new cases over the last three days, 45 recoveries, and two deaths, for a net increase of one active case to 261. That brings to an end a 25-day streak of decreasing active cases in our city. Since the last data three days ago, the sources of 67 cases have been identified: 40 close contact, 10 travel, 9 community and 8 healthcare. 49 cases have been identified as sporadic, and 4 due to outbreaks.

I think we are still doing okay: our new case rate has stayed around 6% of active cases for a while now, which should be low enough for active cases to gradually subside. It would still be very helpful if people were just a little more careful, to reduce all those close contact cases, so that we could get the numbers down to complete contact-tracing levels before school resumes next month.

Today's chart goes back to where this series of posts started, with a phase diagram of my regions of interest, plotting cumulative confirmed/probable cases per capita against rate of growth.

Stay safe.

2020-08-09

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Louisiana (169HI→169HI), Brazil (184HI→222HI), Alabama (223HI→223HI), U.S. (289HI→285HI), New York (1744HI→1856HI), Singapore (3→4), Spain (32→28), Malta (41→37), Romania (51→51), Sweden (56→56), India (64→62), Mexico (71→77), Japan (103→103), Australia (99→121), Poland (132→133), France (143→143), Denmark (151→151), Indonesia (175→175), Turkey (255→255), U.K. (276→256), Norway (297→297), Germany (286→332), Canada (385→435), Italy (523→499), Thailand (2842→2370)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Spain, Malta, U.K.

Worse: India

Better: Louisiana, Alabama, Singapore, Romania, Sweden, Mexico, Japan, Poland, France, Denmark, Indonesia, Turkey, Norway

Much better: Brazil, Australia, Germany

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Malaysia (new→184, 6.5%), South Korea (141→207, 9.5%), China (364→261, 3.5%), New Zealand (new→360, 2.5%), Ontario (499→443, 41.4%), South Africa (771→700, 79.7%), Israel (915→954, 70.3%), Austria (272→1115, 14.8%), Iran (new→3220, 69.7%), California (1568→17799, 96.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (8, 0.0%); Bhutan (14, 29.1%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Georgia (14, 68.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Nicaragua (14, 75.2%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Comoros (26, 22.1%); Chad (27, 6.8%); Benin (29, 36.1%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (30, 33.3%); Mongolia (42, 30.0%); Niger (42, 6.1%); Oman (45, 31.7%); Eritrea (49, 29.0%); Cambodia (59, 35.2%); Botswana (72, 57.4%); Barbados (96, 44.2%); Azerbaijan (105, 33.9%); Congo (Kinshasa) (112, 28.5%); Mauritania (123, 30.0%); Montenegro (123, 54.9%); Pakistan (123, 17.1%); Belarus (126, 15.4%); Burma (133, 33.9%); Ghana (148, 41.5%); Sri Lanka (153, 26.8%); Uruguay (163, 61.4%); Antigua and Barbuda (176, 29.5%); Zambia (180, 56.8%); Croatia (219, 47.1%); Cote d'Ivoire (228, 59.1%); Armenia (251, 57.7%); Madagascar (253, 60.0%); Slovenia (255, 27.6%); Lesotho (412, 90.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (416, 19.4%); Liberia (576, 79.9%); Luxembourg (628, 53.7%); Yemen (634, 64.7%); Rwanda (658, 90.3%); Sudan (672, 81.9%); Burkina Faso (680, 45.8%); Kazakhstan (794, 73.5%); Kyrgyzstan (858, 54.2%); Egypt (902, 78.7%); Uzbekistan (905, 88.6%); Zimbabwe (906, 96.3%); Somalia (1008, 73.1%); United Arab Emirates (1023, 33.8%); Jordan (1089, 19.3%); Russia (1112, 75.4%); Qatar (1388, 9.8%); Saudi Arabia (1426, 53.5%); Haiti (1514, 72.5%); Malawi (1589, 97.9%); Sierra Leone (1719, 75.0%); Congo (Brazzaville) (1990, 82.3%); South Sudan (2457, 67.7%); Portugal (2522, 88.2%); Guatemala (3212, 55.5%); Gabon (3839, 83.0%); Kuwait (4805, 50.0%); Tajikistan (6008, 61.2%); Central African Republic (7825, 60.7%); Afghanistan (9011, 69.9%); Dominican Republic (16132, 98.4%); Czechia (20858, 96.1%); Panama (75814, 98.1%); Chile (88019, 20.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): UT (342, 76.1%); MO (503, 91.7%); OH (799, 83.6%); AZ (827, 92.1%); NH (844, 18.8%); VT (905, 21.7%); WY (991, 91.5%); AK (1011, 94.3%); MI (1429, 91.9%); ME (1563, 56.7%); IA (1647, 90.8%); NM (1763, 96.8%); CT (1777, 82.6%); TX (1832, 87.0%); DE (1906, 98.1%); FL (3611, 94.7%); CO (6247, 98.7%); WI (70588, 98.1%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (7): NT (eradicated); PE (1, 0.0%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.2%); YT (14, 20.0%); SK (80, 52.3%); AB (1844, 36.0%)

India's 64,399 new cases set a new national record, as did South Africa's 14,382.

Germany's decrease is a weekly one; Sunday is always their low day of the week. Compared to last week, its new cases over the weekend are up 33%.

Across Canada: British Columbia was up to 386 active cases from 278 a week ago; Alberta down to 1,125 from 1,382; Saskatchewan down to 168 from 254; Manitoba up to 182 from 70; Ontario down to 2,714 from 3,056; Quebec up to 3,890 from 3,032 (continuing a 23-day streak of daily increases starting at 1,556); the Atlantic provinces down to 8 from 10; the North unchanged with no cases.

Today's chart updates one from a few weeks ago to show on a semilog scale how many active cases there are in each Canadian province and territory.

Ontario saw 79 new cases today, a little up from yesterday's 70. A much larger number of recoveries (148 vs. 107), and two deaths, gave us a decline of 71 active cases to 981, the first time we have been below 1,000 since we started tracking active numbers. There were 6 new cases (down from 13 yesterday) in Ottawa, 17 (13) in Peel, 25 (yesterday's 1 single case appears to have been a reporting delay) in Toronto, 0 (9) in Chatham-Kent, 1 (6) in Southwestern, 0 (6) in Niagara, 9 (4) in York, and fewer than 5 in each of the last two days elsewhere.

Here in Toronto, parents are supposed to start deciding tomorrow whether their children will attend school in person or online in the first quarter. No further details have been announced to how this will take place, such as what website or phone number we should go to, or even which school our children will be attending or what courses they will be taking.

Stay safe.

2020-08-08

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (180HI→184HI), U.S. (313HI→289HI), New York (1744HI→1744HI), Singapore (3→3), Spain (32→32), Malta (49→41), Romania (61→51), Sweden (56→56), India (66→64), Mexico (72→71), Australia (99→99), Japan (102→103), Iran (115→115), Poland (138→132), France (174→143), Denmark (138→151), Indonesia (180→175), Turkey (259→255), U.K. (276→276), Germany (284→286), Norway (341→297), Canada (281→385), Italy (577→523), Malaysia (2077→1894), Thailand (5454→2842), New Zealand (10741→*)

* New Zealand is in the still unusual situation of having had 20-27 active cases for 34 days, but not having had any new ones for four. It's trending toward neither eradication nor 1%, but stuck in limbo in between.

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: U.S., Malta, Romania, Poland, France, Indonesia, Turkey, Norway

Worse: India

The same: Mexico

Better: Brazil, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Australia, Japan, Iran, U.K., Germany

Much better: Denmark, Canada

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: South Korea (158→141, 9.2%), Louisiana (244→169, 76.8%), Austria (214→272, 15.3%), China (684→364, 3.6%), Ontario (359→499, 42.8%), South Africa (510→771, 81.1%), Israel (1081→915, 71.6%), California (1203→1568, 95.7%), Alabama (new→1592, 96.3%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (83): Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (9, 0.0%); Andorra (14, 15.0%); Brunei (14, 0.9%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Seychelles (14, 1.1%); Tajikistan (14, 61.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Niger (25, 5.3%); Mongolia (26, 30.0%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (30, 33.3%); Chad (31, 7.0%); Benin (36, 36.1%); Jordan (40, 16.3%); Eritrea (49, 29.0%); Cambodia (50, 35.2%); Oman (53, 35.7%); Comoros (55, 34.6%); Zambia (59, 45.7%); Congo (Kinshasa) (69, 29.1%); Botswana (72, 57.4%); Montenegro (94, 58.5%); Ecuador (101, 46.8%); Slovenia (102, 25.8%); Azerbaijan (106, 37.0%); Croatia (117, 45.8%); Uruguay (129, 63.7%); Pakistan (138, 17.7%); Nigeria (139, 73.0%); Nicaragua (145, 75.2%); Madagascar (146, 59.5%); Bhutan (159, 29.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (165, 19.7%); Antigua and Barbuda (176, 29.5%); Belarus (184, 17.3%); Mauritania (191, 32.7%); Sri Lanka (196, 27.9%); Cote d'Ivoire (227, 59.1%); Armenia (234, 59.3%); Burma (272, 35.6%); Kyrgyzstan (336, 53.4%); Luxembourg (363, 51.3%); Paraguay (414, 68.9%); Kazakhstan (420, 72.9%); Burkina Faso (473, 44.5%); Sierra Leone (477, 74.9%); North Macedonia (549, 83.3%); Rwanda (568, 90.9%); Chile (647, 20.1%); Egypt (804, 79.4%); United Arab Emirates (839, 33.8%); Congo (Brazzaville) (888, 80.7%); Russia (967, 76.0%); Somalia (1078, 73.6%); Haiti (1089, 73.0%); Saudi Arabia (1145, 53.6%); Qatar (1319, 9.9%); Uzbekistan (1377, 92.3%); Zimbabwe (1551, 95.6%); Malawi (1556, 95.5%); South Sudan (1569, 66.6%); Sudan (1595, 83.4%); Kuwait (1792, 50.1%); Guatemala (1847, 55.7%); Panama (1855, 97.0%); Liberia (2022, 82.3%); Ghana (2095, 51.4%); Portugal (2531, 88.8%); Gabon (3839, 83.0%); Georgia (4861, 67.8%); Central African Republic (5531, 60.9%); Serbia (9881, 99.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (18): IN (122, 71.2%); NH (217, 18.9%); WY (305, 85.9%); ME (355, 55.6%); UT (509, 79.4%); PA (524, 77.1%); OH (621, 84.2%); IA (656, 88.4%); MO (1029, 95.0%); AZ (1092, 93.0%); WV (1475, 94.1%); MI (1770, 90.0%); CT (1893, 82.6%); TX (2382, 88.2%); FL (2653, 95.1%); VT (2746, 22.1%); NM (2878, 97.8%); AK (8087, 97.6%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); PE (2, 0.0%); NB (14, 8.2%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 20.0%); SK (57, 52.3%); AB (542, 36.0%)

The U.S. continues in the bad part of its weekly cycle, but is doing better than last week. Active cases were up 2% nationally in the last week, compared to 6% the previous week, and 11% the week before that.

France, after spending May, June, and most of July trying to cope with about 50,000 active cases on any given day, has climbed steeply over the past two weeks to over 70,000; the government is responding with additional requirements for facial coverings in outdoor public spaces.

New cases in Ontario remained below 100 for the sixth day, and dropped for the second day, down to 70, the lowest since March 22nd. 13 (down from 15 yesterday) in Peel, 13 (15) in Ottawa, 9 (6) in Chatham-Kent, 6 (7) in Southwestern, 6 (6) in Niagara, 4 (6) in York, 1 (10) in Toronto, and no more than five on either of the past two days elsewhere.

Toronto only publishes data now on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, and full data only on Wednesdays, so we won't know anything more about that one sole case in the city today, but the last time we had a single new case reported was on March 10th, so that's very good news.

Today's chart shows how significant a contribution each country has made to the number of active cases in the world on any given day, limited to those countries who have hit 30,000 in a day at least once. You can interact with it here.

Stay safe.

2020-08-07

Comment on this post on Facebook.

today's daily chart as described below in text

Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Brazil (212HI→180HI), Alabama (166HI→223HI), U.S. (310HI→313HI), New York (1854HI→1744HI), Singapore (3→3), Spain (32→32), Malta (69→49), Sweden (79→56), Romania (61→61), India (68→66), Australia (98→99), Japan (108→102), Iran (114→115), Denmark (272→138), Poland (150→138), France (190→174), Indonesia (198→180), Turkey (270→259), U.K. (271→276), Canada (327→281), Germany (303→284), Norway (286→341), Italy (778→577), Thailand (5454→5454)

Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.

Much worse: Brazil, Malta, Sweden, Japan, Denmark, Poland, France, Indonesia, Turkey, Canada, Germany

Worse: India

Better: U.S., Singapore, Spain, Romania, Australia, Iran, U.K.

Much better: Alabama, Norway

Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: New Zealand (184→96, 2.5%), South Korea (197→158, 9.8%), Austria (235→214, 14.8%), Louisiana (224→244, 76.8%), Toronto (new→253, 8.7%), Ontario (531→359, 43.3%), Malaysia (287→491, 7.7%), South Africa (794→510, 81.4%), China (3970→684, 3.8%), Israel (1808→1081, 72.9%), Mexico (304→1146, 87.8%), California (1131→1203, 95.8%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (85): Brunei, Dominica, Holy See, San Marino (eradicated); Mauritius (10, 0.0%); Comoros (14, 47.1%); Equatorial Guinea (14, 100.0%); Fiji (14, 55.1%); Grenada (14, 8.3%); Laos (14, 7.7%); Liechtenstein (14, 6.5%); MS Zaandam (14, 32.1%); Mali (14, 69.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 9.1%); Saint Lucia (14, 7.8%); Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (14, 47.6%); Seychelles (14, 2.2%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 4.5%); Western Sahara (14, 16.7%); Jordan (25, 16.9%); Mongolia (26, 30.0%); Antigua and Barbuda (27, 29.5%); Chad (30, 7.0%); Niger (30, 5.3%); Benin (36, 36.1%); Cambodia (39, 33.0%); Ecuador (49, 42.8%); Oman (63, 40.0%); Congo (Kinshasa) (74, 31.6%); Zambia (87, 52.7%); Croatia (102, 46.5%); Azerbaijan (107, 40.4%); Slovenia (111, 26.9%); Montenegro (119, 60.9%); Madagascar (120, 61.8%); Luxembourg (125, 53.9%); Nigeria (126, 71.6%); Burma (136, 34.7%); Uruguay (143, 66.7%); Nicaragua (145, 75.2%); Bhutan (159, 29.1%); Uganda (159, 24.2%); Paraguay (160, 69.9%); Pakistan (176, 18.9%); Botswana (193, 71.3%); Sao Tome and Principe (224, 20.3%); Ghana (279, 48.3%); Kazakhstan (282, 73.0%); Armenia (292, 61.7%); Kyrgyzstan (314, 54.7%); Cote d'Ivoire (347, 63.0%); Belarus (362, 18.8%); Barbados (419, 50.0%); North Macedonia (457, 82.6%); Central African Republic (518, 59.9%); Rwanda (537, 91.2%); Gabon (559, 81.4%); Guatemala (560, 56.8%); Mauritania (565, 36.2%); Sierra Leone (578, 74.7%); Andorra (631, 15.0%); Chile (651, 20.0%); Sri Lanka (676, 30.3%); Uzbekistan (708, 92.7%); Yemen (747, 62.4%); United Arab Emirates (784, 34.1%); Somalia (804, 73.6%); Egypt (837, 80.4%); Sudan (851, 81.8%); Saudi Arabia (887, 54.1%); Hungary (1007, 34.1%); Kuwait (1140, 50.3%); Panama (1398, 96.6%); Qatar (1600, 10.0%); Georgia (1628, 67.8%); Burkina Faso (1629, 44.5%); Russia (1654, 76.9%); Malawi (1862, 96.9%); Portugal (1942, 88.6%); Afghanistan (2460, 69.7%); Suriname (2542, 89.2%); South Sudan (2758, 67.8%); Liberia (4123, 83.9%); Serbia (18393, 99.7%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (22): VT (14, 23.1%); IN (233, 66.7%); WY (295, 90.6%); ME (296, 57.6%); IA (401, 89.7%); WV (430, 92.7%); OH (449, 85.0%); NH (689, 20.6%); UT (754, 82.2%); ND (948, 94.2%); OK (1108, 95.9%); AZ (1176, 95.5%); DE (1456, 96.8%); PA (1651, 76.5%); CT (2007, 82.6%); FL (2166, 95.4%); NM (2327, 98.3%); TX (2419, 88.1%); AK (2841, 97.8%); WI (3480, 98.0%); TN (3868, 95.3%); SC (17126, 98.4%)

Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (eradicated); PE (3, 0.0%); NB (14, 8.2%); NL (14, 0.5%); NS (14, 0.4%); YT (14, 20.0%); SK (57, 52.3%); AB (148, 36.0%)

Brazil's worsening is weekly cyclical; they are still improving gradually week-on-week.

The situation is still genuinely worsening in Malta, with 49 new cases today, the most in a week and a half. The best that I can say about this is that they are likely catching a large proportion of the cases in the new outbreak, by aggressive testing, and there is a reasonable chance that they may be able to bring it under control.

India broke 60,000 new cases for the first time today. Italy had its first 500+ day since June 24th, reportedly due to residents returning from holidays elsewhere in Europe. Japan has had two consecutive days of more than 1,500 new cases for the first time.

There were 88 new cases in Ontario today. That's 15 (7 yesterday) in Peel, 15 (19) in Ottawa, 10 (30) in Toronto, 7 (7) in Southwestern, 6 (5) in Niagara, 6 (10) in Chatham-Kent, 6 (1) in York, 5 (2) in Durham, 4 (5) in Windsor-Essex, and fewer and 5 both days elsewhere.

Toronto had 33 new cases over two days, which is typical of recent weeks. We had no deaths, which has driven our estimated case fatality rate to 1.3%, very close to the theoretical infection fatality rate of 1%. That leaves us with only 260 confirmed active cases in the city. We are at about 6 new daily cases per 100 active cases, which is a little below replacement rate, and should continue to drive active case numbers down.

For today's chart, I prepared a choropleth showing how long it has been since the most recent sporadic case in each Toronto neighbourhood, using Wednesday's full case data from Open Data Toronto. I may as they say have jinxed things though, as in the interim, there has been a new sporadic case in our neighbourhood, the first since June 2nd. I won't know anything more about it until at least next Wednesday's data release. Here's today's chart.

Stay safe.

See archive for earlier commentary.